You're listening to the Back Home Network presented by Home Field Apparel. Welcome back to Crimson Cast, GAIL and Clavio joining you. It is Friday, November 15th. It is a a much needed bye week for Indiana football. This rocket ship that we've been on with this IU football team with no plans on stopping anytime soon. But hey, even rocket ships need to rest for a week and regather themselves. So we decided to do something a little bit different since there's no preview of an Indiana
game this weekend. But we're going to have our long time friend and occasional producer Matt Blaska joining us on the show to talk through what games are going on this weekend in college football, what IU fans should be rooting for and against, and how all of that affects the playoff picture as we move forward. Matt, good to have you on the show again. How you doing? I am doing great. Galen on my way to South Bend to check out one of the playoffs contenders.
I like that you're doing advanced scouting. You're you're like the, you know, the Citrus Bowl committee that was here for IU last week. This is great. Yeah. We need more people like you doing this. Yeah, they really need my input on the Notre Dame schedule and and all that stuff, I guess,
right? So we're just gonna, you and I were talking about this earlier in the week and, you know, we've been gaming out a lot of different scenarios and we've been hearing a ton of garbage on social media about, you know, Indiana's schedule being too weak and, and other teams. Oh, they're playing real teams. Whatever.
We're, we'll dive into that a little bit more next week, But there's a lot of really fascinating games that are out there this weekend in college football that would have a, a, a very key element of, of, of impact on what Indiana's chances are not just to be in the playoff, but to host a game, which is really, I think what most IU fans are hoping for. So let's just kind of dive in and, and, you know, we'll take some of the easy fruit off the table.
Like when you look at the roster of games this upcoming weekend, what what result do you think would be the most positive for Indiana of all of the plausible scenarios that are out there? So, yeah, I think there's a there's there's a bunch. And as you mentioned, the the striker schedule being an issue
quote UN quote an issue, right. So if you're just looking at the Big 10 just to start here, you really want to see Michigan State, Nebraska and Maryland prevail because those are seeing that IUB and at the other contenders maybe not have played yet. So in terms of helping that's that's probably your starting point. But in terms of the bigger picture, and we're looking at like the game I'm going to, for example, you probably want Notre
Dame to lose this weekend. Yeah, and that's probably a good one. But you also probably the bigger 1 is probably the SEC is Georgia, Tennessee. You probably want Georgia to lose because that gives them three losses and that probably knocks them out. Yeah, I think that's the, that's probably the first thought you want to look at. Yeah, I mean, there's a couple in the SECI mean and, and I think that one is, is a big one.
I I will say one thing real quick on the Big 10 side, you know, one of the interesting things is, you know, Indiana's beaten Washington, they've also beaten UCLA. Both of those teams are right around the same level in FPI right now. Washington's 48th and UCLA is 57th. And it's interesting because, you know, Illinois has been held up as a good one.
Illinois is actually ranked lower than UCLA and FPI right now, which I, I just, if you're looking for debate points with your SEC friends that that's one of them. But but those two teams, UCLA and Washington are playing tonight on Fox. I, you know, I would argue that you probably want Washington to win that game, that because they have a much better chance of getting higher in the rankings, I think. And, and certainly that would get them to bowl eligibility, which would be nice.
It would also give them a winning record, which has been a point that's been held against Indiana. You bring up a great point about Michigan State winning at Illinois would get them to five and five and would at least get them at 500. Nebraska travels on the road to USC and, and Nebraska, you know, they're only one game away from bowl eligibility. That would be a big one. And they'd be 6:00 and 4:00. So they would be bowl eligible
at that point. And then, as you mentioned, Maryland hosting Rutgers. Rutgers keep scaring people like no one expected them to beat Minnesota this past week, and yet they did. But this is really a game Maryland needs to win to get themselves back up to A500 record. Yeah, and for for Indiana for specifically like Morgan hasn't they? Oh, we're losing Matt a little bit. Can you hear me, Matt? Yeah, I can hear you can. You hear me? Yeah, you were fading out there
a second. We got you back now though. Sorry. And so I was going on the Penn State here with Penn State still has a OPS Yeah, Purdue this weekend. And you know, that's obviously not a big game, but like all these are going to matter when they're trying to parse up how maybe IUB 8 or 9C. So some of these games are going to matter in a different way.
But in terms of the Big 10 picture and strength of schedule, where they really need some of these teams that I us played and be in compared to what Pence, compared to what Pence states be like USC. Yeah, yeah, it's so we'll we'll have to see what happens with all of that because, you know, you, you want obviously I us opponents to be better in the rankings than they have been up to this point.
And you know, I think it's worth noting as much criticism as I use strength of schedules had, there was a great tweet earlier on today. It's like if you look at the schedule at the beginning of the year, you had the defending national champion, the defending runner up Ohio State, a Nebraska team that most people were picking to win like 8-9, maybe 10 games. You add, you know, I mean, that there was a lot of meat on the bone with this Indiana schedule and and it just hasn't materialized.
But that's hardly Indiana's fault that most of these teams just haven't lived up to the expectations that they had before the season started. Yeah, I mean, I made that point too. It's hard to really criticize them for scheduling when or the Big 10 for scheduling when a lot of these bigger teams, they expected Washington, MI, to be better and it just didn't work out that way. Right? Yeah. So there's nothing you can do about it.
Let's talk a little bit about some of the games across the country that are worth zeroing in on. So you mentioned Tennessee versus Georgia, and you've looked pretty closely into this. I've gone back and forth about what would make the most sense. Georgia's the one team that I'm concerned probably maybe as the best chance of making the playoff as a three loss team. It would be really hard to justify any three loss team over a one loss team from the Big 10.
But you know, the other thing about this match up that's interesting is like if Tennessee loses now, they've got two losses. You could see a situation where they just flip out of the bracket entirely and Georgia flips in and then Tennessee still has to go to Vanderbilt later, which is a game that they could very easily lose. Yeah, I mean, it seems like this entire game really slips on it, deco plays or not, right, like these two construction protocols. But in terms of what I want,
you're right. Georgia is the one team with their schedule, the number one, check the schedule. If they lose this game, they could get in at 9, three. But like you also said here with Tennessee, they go to two losses. They still got Vandy last and and trust more cash. The one thing with that result with Georgia winning it, then it then create this potential 6/6 and 2678 weight high and another game of double got is LSU Florida because LSU could play itself Canada's bracket which is
crazy. Yeah, no, it really is. I mean, we thought L and this is kind of where you, you don't really know how it's going to be viewed. But the committee did not have LSU in the top 12. And everybody's like, oh, well, LSU is dead at this point, having lost that game and they're 22nd in the country. It would be a big scramble for them to get up.
I'm, I'm not as worried like, you know, if LSU wins that game, you know, and moving forward, what we're looking at with LSU is a team that's got everything going against it essentially as they go into this final stretch. And they would not only have to win the remaining games they've got at Florida, Vanderbilt at home, Oklahoma at home. Hope that the tiebreakers work out for them. Then they'd have to win the SEC
title. But that would give somebody else a probably a second or third loss, which, you know, LSU is getting in regardless if they win that game. And if they lose, they're not in it. Period. Yeah, yeah. I ran so many scenarios with LSU winning out and it's so weird how their tiebreakers worked out that there's a lot of them where if there's a six way tie, they're in and or in the big in
the in the championship game. So it's like they're one of those NCAA tournament big, you know, big dealers, which again, as long as I you play the close game against Ohio State, it probably won't matter. But you don't want them stealing a spot and pushing everybody down a range, you know? Another game that's really interesting in the SEC and, and hasn't really gotten a lot of buzz is Texas, who's second in FPI traveling to Arkansas. And you know, Arkansas is five
and four. But you know, they've had an interesting season so far in terms of, you know, they they've had some big wins. And you know, the Tennessee win obviously is one that people have looked at. They win that game 1914. But then I guess they've only had one big win because the rest of their games, like they lost to Oklahoma State, they lost to A&M, they lose to LSU, they get destroyed by Ole Miss. But they're hosting Texas. Texas really hasn't beaten anybody so far this season.
And even though Texas right now is what, third in the College Football Playoff rankings, like they've got this game, which is not going to be easy and they have to travel to A&M. You know, they lose this game. That's that's a real problem for them as they head to the last couple of games of the season. Yeah, this is one of those games, the old, Yeah, with the old Southwest Conference, right. That's right.
Arkansas has been waiting for this for a long time for them to come to play too, so you got to feel that they're going to actually give their best effort. I don't know a lot about the roster, but certainly in terms of what IU want, they want Arkansas to win this game. But is there is there a weird scenario where if Texas loses this game, BJ and M and is that better for their resume? I, I don't know, yeah.
I mean, it'd be, it'd be weird at that point because it's like, you know, Texas, the winds that Texas has right now, Colorado State at Michigan, Texas, San Antonio, Louisiana, Monroe, Mississippi State, Oklahoma at Vanderbilt and Florida, again, not a lot of meat on the bone there.
And I mean, even if you want to say that the Vanderbilt win is a big win at the end of the day, that's, that's a borderline, you know, team in the, in terms of bowl picture, it's a team that's 39th in in FPI, they're six and four. And they could finish six and six if they lose that game or if, excuse me, if Vanderbilt ends up losing the last couple of games of the year. Yeah, I mean, the bandy thing is
serving a certain great story. Six and four and have to have that big one against Nampa. They lose the last two. They're 500 teams, not a look, you look as good of a win, quote, UN quote on the way on the road by three. You know, I guess the team that's not that great. So yeah, Texas really needs to win, really needs to win out. Yeah, 'cause I mean it, 'cause it's not just that Vanderbilt plays Tennessee, they also have to play LSU.
That's their last two games. So they're they're in a bit of trouble there. So that one again, it's like I, I kind of feel obviously I think you for IU, you want as many teams as possible to have at least one more loss than whatever Indiana has. And if, if Indiana doesn't lose a game, no problem. But if Indiana loses at Ohio State, you would really want most of those other contenders
to have two losses. And this would be the most easy way to make sure that Texas has two losses would be just have them lose at Arkansas this weekend. You don't. Absolutely add it back if that were to happen and certainly that that's a bum checked it out all together. You would think, you know, they just did that to Georgia last week.
Greg Sankey may have a, you know, fit about it, but it's certainly going to change the answer to the conference because then who is the best team of the FCC? And I don't think anybody knows at this point if it's not 5 or separated by a very small, you know, very small, small margin. Yeah, I mean, at that point it's like, well, maybe it's Alabama that's actually the best team in the conference at that point. And they have an easy game this week.
They're playing Mercer, which that's such a bad game. It's not even on terrestrial television. It's streaming only, you know, but that's one that they'll win easily. And and then Alabama, of course, will, as they go down the stretch here, they've got they're at Oklahoma and then they got Auburn at home. They should win both of those games pretty easily. It kind of feels like, you know, if Georgia wins against Tennessee, that puts Georgia in a really good spot to make the
SEC title game, I believe. And then if Alabama wins their last three, it it it feels like that might end up being the title game and less crazy stuff happens. Is is that your read on things at this point? Yeah, You know, just running a bunch of the scenarios, Georgia needs as huge ties as possible. So maybe like 3-4 weight, five points high, maybe at worse. Any of those 6-7 weight ties they're in, they're not making a certain.
There's I think one scenario, but it's very going to be very tough where Bama's in really good shape if they went out like Bama's probably. Going to make it. Yeah. Let's look at, let's look at some of these other games. There's a few others that I think are really interesting to think about. So, you know, one of them is looking at what's going on with some of these ACC teams. And you've got Clemson, who's kind of knocked themselves out of the picture.
They got to travel to PIT. That becomes basically a complete elimination game because either of those teams is going to come out of there with three losses. Clemson, it's probably like they lose a lot of tiebreakers in the ACC right now regardless, so they're not really in great shape from that perspective. This would take them out entirely though, if they go to Pittsburgh and lose. Yep, they go to Pitts, they're they're out. They're they're one game. They got the one lost.
Preston's got zero now Miami's got 1. So they they need help. But a scenario that they really Clemson would need and obviously this isn't a Clemson want that win this game and obviously get that help. But for IU they would want Clemson to win today or if it has Cubs having to win but in South Carolina to be damaged the end of the season. So there's some scenarios that help IU and hurt IU with Clemson.
But you're right for the most part, Clemson probably out anyway unless they go to Miami or SMU locks. Yeah, SMU playing Boston College this week. They'll be favored in that game and you know, SMU in pretty good shape along with Miami as long as they don't have any stumbles down the stretch here to make the ACC title game.
SM US games are Boston College at Virginia, which of course Virginia's playing Notre Dame this week at the game you're going to and then Cal a a trickier schedule that I think then people are giving it credit for. And Boston College is in kind of some upheaval right now. They just had their quarterback go into the transfer portal because he got benched. But, you know, so and they have to travel to Dallas to play that game. So you feel like SMU is is in pretty good shape, at least for
this week. Miami's an interesting 1. You know, in as much as they're, they're in a position where now they really can't afford to lose other games. I don't believe they're playing this week. You know, they are, they've they've got the buy this week, if I've read correctly. But then they've got a a closing sequence of Wake Forest and at Syracuse and Miami's been playing with fire all season. It finally burned them last
week. But again, it's like I I've become less concerned about the ACC sniping a bid because one or of the other of those teams, if they meet in the ACC title game, is going to have a second loss, which would put them well behind IU in the pecking order. Yeah, I like, I I'm well with you. I mean, with with Miami here, everyone's putting them in 11 O1 playing SMU. But they have they have three or four games this year, the Cal game, the DS Tech game. They probably should have lost
one of those, if not both. I trust SMU more to get to Charlotte. I think to Charlotte for the interstitial game. Yeah, the, the last team I wanted to talk about with you is the team that you're going to see, which is Notre Dame. So this Virginia team is not that great. I think they're like 67th and FPI. They they've had a very, you know, not terribly impressive season. You know, they they lose to Maryland and that was at a point where we thought, oh, Maryland might be really good.
They just beat Virginia, they lose to Louisville, they lose to Clemson, they lose, they get blown out by North Carolina, but then they turn around and beat Pitt last week, which really knocked Pitt out of the equation. And that was on the road. So they go on the road again.
And the thing about Notre Dame that's really fascinating is that Notre Dame has a a really sneakily difficult end of the schedule because they got this Virginia team that's clearly still got some life left in it. They've got Army next week and then they've got USC to close the regular season.
Like, I mean, they're actually, if you look at the, the CFP college, the, the playoff predictor percentages, they don't have a very good percentage to make the playoff right now because I they're, they're not rated particularly highly in any of those games that, you know, there, there's a, the computers don't really like what they're seeing out of Notre Dame with some of these things.
Which is interesting because they I know they just blew out Florida State, but really since the NIU lost, they really put it on most teams this year. So it's curious, but you're right. They with Virginia David Jekyll and Hyde all season. You know, Army America's team who's nobody shooting against RP next week or not, I don't know. And USC has even though four and five, they've had 414 losses.
So and I believe it's not USC. So there's no, no easy game and they have one loss and they're done because you can't. You can't afford the NIU loss right now the way that you're shaking out, but you can't afford 2 losses. Yeah, it's interesting. If you look at the FBI top 25, there's one team in the FBI top 25 that has a losing record and it's USC. There's they're 18th in FBI
despite being four and five. And again, it's because they've they've done all these close losses, but they still got a 70% chance to get to six wins. And in order to do that, they'd have to beat UCLA or to beat Nebraska, beat UCLA and then beat Notre Dame. But I think it's all entirely possible, and that's exactly the kind of scenario that's kind of a nightmare for Notre Dame, having to travel to take on AUSC team that might be playing for bowl eligibility at that point
in the season. Yeah, no, you're right. And and for Notre Dame, they obviously we're not going to take any of these games lately obviously because because they're going for it. But you're US CS, probably the trickiest game, you know, hard to really see what Army is all about. Like they didn't the Dallas people on Navy triple option. That was a weird game, like like 7 turnovers. But you're right, it's really tricky and and Notre Dame's not really going to move up I don't
think. I think they thought things are going to play out and they'll probably be in that 8910 range. They're probably not going to go anywhere. Yeah, I mean, it's interesting because you know, Notre Dame right now is a 69% chance of making the playoff according to the predictor, which is only one percentage point better than
Boise State at this stage. They are a 96% favorite against Virginia. They're an 89% favorite against Army. They're only a 69% favored against USC, But you know, those results have to stack on top of each other. And so it, it will be interesting to see how they fare in this because when you, when you look at what Notre Dame's done, you're right. I mean, they have been very impressive.
They're very highly ranked in FPI And you know, they've been, but I, I do sometimes wonder because I feel like a lot of that has been built up. You know, they have a 66 to seven win over Purdue, They have a 49, seven win over Stanford. They have a 5114 win over Navy, a 52 to three win over Florida State. I mean, Navy, I think maybe a bit a bit overrated. The other three teams are, are pretty bad. And yeah, you, you so you do
there is some interest there. I think in just like, how does how does Notre Dame sustain given that only one of these last three games is actually in South Bend? Right, yeah, they while they while they blown out these teams, they haven't been great team. But like I do give them credit for obviously getting off the mat after all the NIU stuff happened. But at this point, you know, like I said, they're going to win out. Otherwise they're going home.
There's just no, I just don't see a path forward. It's SEC log jam at the backside. The the last conference we'll we'll talk about briefly here is the Big 12, which has become a mess. And, and it's interesting you look at BYU, who is still undefeated, still 9 and O is still kind of getting paired with IU in a bunch of things. But the problem for BYU is that this this closing run of games, while it, you know, if you if you just look at it straight away might not look that bad.
The FBI doesn't like BYU very much in two of these games. I mean, they're playing a Kansas team that while they're they have a losing record, that's another team that's had just a ton of close losses. They're kind of like USC in some ways. BYU is only a 61% favored in that one. And then they got to travel next week to Arizona State. And that is rated as a toss up right now by FPI, which is kind of wild to think about.
Yeah, I mean, if you look at their, I think, well, this past weekend, you know, the holding, the holding call and the holy war and then the people for the Oklahoma State, like very similar to Miami, they're playing with fire at this point. It's very serious. It's Kansas State now. Kansas, like you said, they've had these post losses and it's only 2 1/2 points, right. I think the last month I saw. Yeah, to your point, like I think BYU is, is is is on fumes
right now. I mean, obviously if they get to 12 and O and if they lose what happens? But like they they got to get to 12 and O. They do. And you know, it's funny, I've been using FPIA lot because it's a nice kind of neutral metric for a lot of these things. BYU is, despite being 9 and OBYU is 28th in FPI. They're below Florida, they're below Oklahoma, they're one spot ahead of a three and six Kansas
team. And you know, it just it's a, it's a rough situation for BYU because as you said, like that, they've won all these games, but they've they've won them in a way that isn't very convincing. And that Utah game is a great example of that. And the problem that BYU has is that almost any loss is is going to be to a team that isn't in the playoff hunt. I mean, Iowa State, 7 and 2, Arizona State, seven and two. Kansas State is 7:00 and 2:00,
Colorado's 7:00 and 2:00. But you know, they're really just on the fringes of the playoff thing and and probably not a serious contender. I don't know that they could lose to any of those teams in the Big 12 title game and actually have a legitimate argument for getting into the playoff at this point. Yeah, you're right.
I mean, they're probably not. They're they're probably the TC unit, right, Probably like a 12 and O and kind of hope for everything to break like another, maybe another, another another day loss. Both will SEC losses. Like that's what's going to just to keep them in the mix cause 12 and one may not get to be enough for them if you know if they get there as soon as they get there. Yeah. Well, anything else that that's that's coming to mind for you
that you'd like to cover here? I mean, it, there's a lot of games to watch and obviously, I mean, there's some games we're not expecting a whole lot out of where I'm not expecting a whole lot out of the Ohio State Northwestern game. I I just don't think Northwestern is, is that that team this year? I'm not expecting anything out of Purdue, you know, but but any other games that you've got your eye on, that might have some implications.
There's a sneaky game out West and this doesn't really affect the Hoosiers, but it affects maybe the ACP if Louisville travel to Stanford. Yeah, three-game going out West Louisville is there is there a big win if Louisville that game perk, you know that could really the ATC for 100% sure as not 100%, but might be in A1 big league at this point. So maybe that's the only game we have really discussed.
But I think we're at the point where we kind of have a good feeling that AT TS, probably A1 big league, but that would really hurt both those two top two teams. The other thing, and that's a, I'm glad you brought that one up. The other thing I think is worth noting is, you know, Boise State's got a tough one this week in the Mountain West is I think they're taking on, they're at, they're at San Jose State who's who's not a bad team this
year. And what I think is going to be really fascinating is if you look at the rankings, you know, Boise State is, is 13th, but they are, you know, they are the, that's the highest rated conference champion projected outside of the top 4 conferences. And that team is going to be, you know, the 12th seed
basically. But if you look down the list, you know, Army, who doesn't play this weekend out of the out of the American, they're nine and O and they're not that far back from Boise State in terms of the rankings. They're only 11 spots down. And if Boise State were to lose, well, now maybe they're right next to each other. And then you've now got Tulane, who's in the mix as well. You know, Tulane has come up. They were 25th in this most
recent CFP ranking. And so now it's like, well, OK, is, is it a situation where, you know, we've just kind of penciled in the Mountain West champion within all of this. Maybe it's not them, but you're, you're dealing with you're dealing with, you know, a couple of different conferences now that are at least sniffing around that area.
And I, I am really curious because Army and, and Tulane in the American Athletic Conference, you know, that's the other conference that could potentially snipe something. And importantly, they don't play each other. So they could match up as undefeated teams in the a the AAC championship game, which which would be a good win for whoever gets it and might be something that could Volt him over a Boise State team that you know doesn't complete the season
with only one loss. You're right and and right now, like Tulane, they're only two losses out of power for a team. So like that's doesn't not going to hurt them as much, right. It's certainly going to Boise State drops one. It's going to make more an interesting conversation because Boise State would probably play UNL would probably play UNLV again, which would help them maybe a little bit.
But you're right, you're looking at them 22 really good games, the AAC and the and the Mount W if Boise happens to drop and then it kind of all holds far who who gets that? Spot yeah, I mean, yeah, the other option in the Mountain West it's going to be interesting is you know so Boise State finishes off at San Jose State at Wyoming and then they've got Oregon State at the at the tail end of the season. Now Oregon State is not great this year.
They're four and five, but those other two teams, you know, you know, are going to be an interesting challenge in as much as, you know, Wyoming is, is always a little bit tricky. They've you know, they're they're they're they're always kind of an interesting challenge. It feels like at weird times of the season. And then you've got the San Jose State game, but they don't play Colorado State, who's the other undefeated team right now.
So maybe maybe it's UNOV or maybe it's not, you know, UNOV is just is in kind of this weird spot where they're, what are they three and one in the conference at this stage. But they don't get a chance to make up ground against either of the teams that they would need to catch at this point to make
the title game. Yeah, I guess when they they made that schedule agreement, they took away that one conference game to play Washington State and Oregon State. So there's less data points and I forgot about, I forgot that they had that one less conference game. So UNLV may not even make it there. So here, point tolerance State, maybe that team has said yeah. And Colorado State is is not
they're not up in the rankings. And so again, it's one of those things where Boise State perhaps gets dragged down by the teams they have to play. And ironically in the American army in Tulane will probably get the benefit of playing each other. You know, Tulane, obviously with the two losses, it's not as impressive, but they're still they were 25th in in the the last ranking. And that, and that really does matter at this point. So, well, Matt, this is this is a lot of fun and interesting
stuff. And I think we'll do this again next week as we roll into that week's games because I think IU fans have got to be conscious about what's going on across the country. I still feel like IU is in good shape even with a loss to Ohio State. And largely the reason I feel that way is a lot of these things we've laid out here, results, as we saw last week, will start to go against the teams that Indiana's going up
against for these things. And the fact that Indiana, you know, unless something catastrophic happens against Purdue, probably only has one loss as a possibility will really help down the stretch because others do not have that benefit at this stage. Yeah. I mean, assuming just the one loss it it it really comes down to where these things fall with feeding, right. So I mean, that's more probably what we're talking about of how
things are going to fall like. And it really depends on what these results for really the FTCS really would would be those teams that would probably take that 5678, those home games. Yeah, going to be a lot of fun to watch. We'll keep an eye on it here at Crimson Cast Headquarters. Matt Blaska, thank you again for joining us on the show. A lot of fun and and really enjoyed get a chance to chat
with you about that. Thanks to all you folks for listening and we'll have some content coming up next week. A ton of content as we get ready for Indiana and Ohio State. The big top five match up that'll be taking place in Columbus format. I'm Galen. This is Crimson cast. We'll catch you folks. On the flip side, bring back the bison stay never daunted. It's all on everybody.