Welcome to Crash Course, a podcast about business, political, and social disruption and what we can learn from it. I'm Tim O'Brien. Today's Crash Course, the first GOP debate versus the Guy who wasn't there. I've said it before and I'll say it again. Anytime I see a Republican presidential candidate other than Donald Trump on television, I'm reminded that they and their party look like they're in a hostage video. They are all trapped by Trump, and none of them
have convinced me that they can escape his. Republican Challengers held their first national debate recently, offering an array of paul's trying to make a case for themselves and the GOP's future. The group included Ron DeSantis, Nikki Hailey, Mike Pence, Chris Christy, Tim Scott, Asia Hutchinson, Doug Burgham, and the one and only Vivek Ramaswami. Ramaswami offered the most transparent approach, contending with Trump. Recast yourself as a chat ter, grinning
alternate version of Donald Trump light. The others followed different paths to making cases for themselves. Meanwhile, Trump counterprogrammed he sat down with former Fox News propagandist and conspiracy theorist Tucker Carlson to chat about election fraud and, among other things, his unfounded belief that China controls the Panama Canal. The interview aired on social media and was timed to distract voters from the Republican debate, which Trump chose not to attend.
Joining me to make sense of this Carnival is Susan del Percio, a Republican political strategist and an advisor to a variety of political and corporate campaigns. She also once worked in former New York Mayor Rudi Giuliani's administration. Susan is savvy and insightful and always a treat to talk to.
Hey, Susan hate tim It's great to be with you today.
It's really great to be with you. So let's do the big picture. What's your big takeaway from the first Republican debate?
My first big takeaway is, boy, the Republicans blew it. They had an opportunity to present a platform of ideas, a vision for the country where they want to take it, which would obviously stand and start contrast to Donald Trump because he is only about Donald Trump. As we know and is just doing grievance. But all eight of these candidates, I was waiting for them to be whatever they are, not trying to deal with the man not in the room.
And that was so disappointing because there are a lot of Republicans out there that want to move on from Trump, even those who voted for Trump twice want to move on from Trump. And I just I feel like the ideas and even the way it was moderated just did not bring that forward.
So you know, if you could have waived your magic wand across the event, what would you have done differently?
Then I probably would have said it up first of all, in issue format in a pretty tight way, and also not let the candidates get too out of control, if you will, because they were all over the place, and I know we're going to talk about the Ramasami, but he was like a fly that just gets swattered around. I mean, everyone was taking their shot at of Nikki Hally, Chris Chrissy. He just buzzed around, and really they should have stopped.
It, especially because I mean, we'll get into him later, but he just backed actually, I think in the attention even while he was getting squatted.
At exactly other than him.
You know who stood out to you and why among the whole collection of people up on that stage.
I would say the two standouts, the three standouts, two for good, one not good for me were on the positive side. Nikki Halley, she at least really tried to talk about foreign policy and you know her credentials. And Mike Pence. I didn't agree with some of what he said, but he was pretty aggressive in getting his comments out there. He's also the most experienced in this form of debate. The person who was so disappointing to me was Senator
Tim Scott from South Carolina. A lot of people recognize that Ron DeSantis, the governor from Florida, is on his way out. He's been, in my opinion, he's done, and they're giving Tim Scott another look. They want to give someone a look and see what they have, and all eyes have been on Tim Scott. This was his time to shine.
Particularly the Republican establishment. I think you saw this sort of movement after Desantists stumbled so badly out of the gates. People were attuned to that in the GOP. I think both among powerbrokers in the party and big money donors. And then there was this movement towards Tim Scott, and we'll talk more about him in a minute, but I agree with you he was essentially on her from on that stage, and I don't think that's how he needed
to position himself during that debate exactly. Let's focus on Nicki Haley for a minute only because I found her to be the most substantive of the contenders up there, even if Pole suggests she's least likely to get the nomination. And you know, I like how we got into this of you expressing your disappointment. You're a Republican. You want it to be a party of ideas. You want it to be a party of policy, party of solution. I think in an ideal world democrats want that for the
Democratic Party too. That they may get to there in different ways, but people want politicians to be serious actors and not just buffoons.
But they also want I'm sorry to interrupt, but this was in particularly important because of Donald Trump. These Republicans seem to be a stark difference from Donald Trump, not from the Democrats. The Democrats have never had to deal with what the Republicans are dealing with, so.
Why can't Nicki Haley break out. You know, She's interesting to me in the way that Chris Christie is, but interesting solely because both of them I think, sold a little bit of their soul to join the Trump administration after Trump emerged in twenty sixteen as the obvious front runner.
Hailey was the UN ambassador, Christy was an advisor. They both had been vocal about being critical of him prior to Trump getting out in front of twenty sixteen, and now they're both pretty vocal about trying to carve out some sort of a position apart from him. But she really hasn't broken out with Republican voters. And what do you attribute that to?
A few things? One is, in politics, there is is, and was is. And Ron DeSantis is the governor. He wasn't was the governor. And so it's very hard to do things and get the press attention because you're not an elective office. All you can do is try and get earned media. That's the first thing in general. But for Nick Haley specifically, and it applies to a couple of others. For folks who came out early in this primary,
you had to come out swinging against Trump. I mean, one of the things that all of these candidates wasted was looking at Trump and taking them on in January, February up to March actually probably up to that first indictment, that's when he was the weakest. Ron DeSantis was pretty strong at that point too, coming out of an election before he did some really bad legislative stuff. But Nikki Haley, you know, her line was, I don't kick sideways, so
that's stuck with me. But I don't know what else she's done now apparently she had her.
For a second. Do you think voters tune in to that exact phenomenon you just identified that a candidate who isn't currently holding an office is less attractive than one who.
Is, only because they don't have the press corps of their home state. For example, people aren't writing about you can't see what legislation they're doing. It's not that the people actually care so much, it's what comes with being a current office holder.
The power of the incumbency exactly.
And I think with Nikki Haley, she could have come out, she could have gone after Trump. She has a really good line in the debate is we have to be honest with the American people, and she should have been using that to go after Donald Trump the way she did on debate night. By the way, that debate was the single largest fundraising night for Governor Halley, so there.
Are people paying attention. Do you think she has a chance to break out or do you think this is just a sideshow given how far Trump is ahead in the polls right now.
I think there's always a chance to break out, But it's what she does. You need a combination for someone to beat Trump. You need them to look good and be a strong, viable alternative. And even if you have that, that's not going to help you a lot in the polls. But what you really need is to have Chris Christy keep banging away at Donald Trump, because when you start looking at the poll numbers and those numbers spread Joe
Biden to Donald Trump go from it. Now they're pretty close to three four points, but what happens if they go to five, six, seven, eight points, then there's a hard electability fact there that people can't ignore.
You mentioned that DeSantis stumbled because of poor legislative judgment, but one of the things I feel that he stumbled around on was he tried to nationalize what had worked for him in Florida, which was to pursue this quote unquote woke agenda on education, on public health, on any number of issues where it was easy for him to sell that relatively easy for him to sell that to Florida voters because he was doing it in very programmatic
public settings that were very controlled. He wasn't giving himself access to the press. He had the state legislature behind him, He was in tune with the mood in Florida. But none of that necessarily transports into a national campaign. And I think to me, once he began campaigning nationally, it was like the Emperor has no clothes.
Yeah, And usually you use the chance to have a legislative agenda passed for what would help you in a general election you want to become That's how I govern and use the rhetoric during the primary, and he just blew it. I'll tell you. Everyone makes a big deal about how many points DeSantis won by. He won by nineteen. Huge win, absolutely huge. But it's not that he got so many more Republican votes. It's at nine hundred thousand fewer Democrats showed up to vote on that line, and
that was what made the difference. Now I'm not saying he wouldn't have won. But the other thing is I saw an Emerson College poll in February March with Florida voters independent women gave him a disapproval of sixty one percent.
That's sky high, especially coming after a win. And that's because one of the reasons is he moved from saying oh, I passed a fifteen week abortion ban, which could fall in line with the conservative Republicans, to an extremist position of a six week abortion ban, which is basically banning abortion in his state. Oh and by the way, he did make an exception for rape and incests, but only if you file the police report. Who does that.
Hold rape and incest exception to your draconian view of women's access to reproductive health. I think Pence is the only other person sort of charting that out on abortion among the current Republican I think most of the other Republicans are at fifteen weeks, but the Santis and Pencer, I think at this very extreme edge of that policy debate. He's also just not a great public speaker. He's a
tree stump. I think he's odd with people. He doesn't make eye contact, he's not a buncular I don't think he enjoys being with other people too much.
Yeah, that's what happens if when you're governing, you put yourself in a bubble and you only speak to Fox News. You have a press conference and you only let one media outlet in. You don't speak to the reporters in Tallahassee, where the capital is for legislative needs. He also just ticked off a lot of people, and you didn't hear the glowing endorsements that you typically do. People were off the bat, even if they were off the record going after him. But even in the debate, did you notice
he gave his answer. He kind of had a scowl most of the time, but when he was done with his answer, you could see his teeth. I mean he was smiling like Okay, oh I'm done. Huh pause, smile.
Yeah. I just kept looking at him and thinking tree stump, you know, the entire time he was up there. I think Pence is a more outgoing person than DeSantis. I think Penn enjoys talking to other people. But I also think he exists in a charisma free zone, which is an obvious factor dealing with Donald Trump. Trump has a million flaws. I think he's a dangerous figure on our public landscape. But for the people who adhere to his vision and support him, he's got authentic charisma and he's
had it. He had it in television, charisma for a certain kind of thing, and Pence lacks that. Where do you see Pence breaking out of the pack after watching these debates?
Well, first, that's why I think Trump picked Mike Pence because he was never going to be someone who is going to upstage him in any shape or form, not just with his words, but like you said, with the charisma. People weren't going to talk about Mike Pence with excitement. He's gradually going after Donald Trump. Very little, not enough. He did a great job of setting up the question, well who here doesn't think I did the right thing on January sixth, I mean, he basically threw it out there.
But then something I just can't forget, and it's been with me and I think it's one of the legacies
of trump Ism within the party. When it comes to being elected and serving in government, I can't use governance because the Republicans elective office have shown no interest in governance except for very, very few so Nikki Halen had given her answer on abortion, and she said, we have to agree on this, and so forth she went through her steps and she said, because we have to get a consensus, there's no way you're going to get sixty senators to ban abortion, and Mike Pence fire back saying
consensus is the opposite of leadership. That is a mindset. That is a Donald Trump mindset. I will lead, I will lead you, I will lead you into so we fall off the cliff because he won't make the term because he wants to look like a leader. And it didn't get a lot of pick up in the media coverage, but it's something that's stuck with me because if that's where we are, if that's where the Republican Party is, they're not going to be governing for a very very long time.
And that was clearly one thing I thought about that line was it was rehearsed before the debates. They gave him that line, They maybe gave him some thoughts about when he should deploy it, and the fact that he chose to deploy it then after having practiced in debate prep with it was very telling to me too. Yeah, especially because you know his former boss tried to have him murdered, so you would think that he'd be a little more strident in criticizing some of the decisions Donald Trump makes.
And he has the record. Well that's the thing. Just take on Donald Trump. You're never going to get those Trump people, So just put him away, don't even try and use your record and go forward because otherwise Pence is nothing there because he has nothing to do and.
To reach out to that other seventy percent of Republicans who want something other than Donald Trump. M that Ramaswami. You know, I just sort of see him as a tireless cartoon figure who's basking in the attention presidential candidates get when they have no experience, but by virtue of quirks in our system and their own odd magnetism or points of view, they get a moment in the sun
that happens with both parties. What do you make of him and the fact that they gave him a pole position essentially almost directly at center stage during the debate, Hi wil.
Tim, we're both old enough to remember that. In twenty twelve, Michelle Bachman won the Iowas straw pol when she was running in twenty eleven. I remember when Ben Carson was at the head of the polls back in twenty fifteen. These things happen. If Ramaswami makes it to the third debate, he will probably be the very end of the stage. This is his time in the sun. He's entertaining for
no other reason. I think people talk about him because he was entertaining his debate prep was apparently playing tennis shirtless. I don't understand how anyone could take him seriously. He is just a cartoon figure to me.
I think he's trying out to be Trump's VP. I feel like that's his agenda.
Which we just discussed that. One of the reasons why Penn Scott it was because he had no personality and the last thing Donald Trump wants is someone who could out charisma him.
Yeah, this guy clearly does not understand who Donald Trump is. He actually wants tree stumps in the White House. He doesn't want people who've got magnetism at all. Lastly, Chris Christy, I get you know, he played the role of flamethrower. I have been happy to see him be willing to speak his mind about Trump and trump Ism, but he hasn't really carved out much on a policy path beyond
being the most open Trump critic. I guess during the campaign season thus far, what do you think of his performance on the debate stage and his possibilities.
I think you laid it out perfectly, and with Chris Christie. He can't be the prosecutor going after Donald Trump without Donald Trump there, so he made the lines he had to. He did play some good defense at points, like when ran Assami was going after him. I just think that there's no way the Republicans are going to give him the nomination. He could come in though in New Hampshire
he could come in second or third. It wouldn't surprise me, mostly because in New Hampshire they have an open primary where Republicans vote in the Republican primary, but independents can
vote in the Democrat or Republican primary. And since there's no real Democratic party in New Hampshire, because they're changing when the elections are being held, you may see a flood of independence, which is about thirty eight in the state, come into that and that could help Christy, but I don't think it gets into where he needs to go.
I'm not going to dwell on Hutchinson and Bergham. I'm sorry our show's short and no one really seems to care enough about them, But I think we've zeroed in on the people who may or may not mount a challenge to Trump. I want to ask you to focus on that moment during the debate when all of the candidates were asked if they would support the indicted former
president if he was the Republican nominee. Everyone raised their hands, but Hutchinson, bless his law abiding soul, Chris Christy did a weird like half hand raised, and DeSantis actually looked around to see what everyone else was doing before he raised his hand, which I just thought was a pathetic lack of courage, especially given how he's been trying to carve out this place as the guy who's strong and wilful. But what did that moment tell you about what you were seeing on the debate stage.
I couldn't vote for any of those candidates, huh, by the way him. I want to be able to vote for a Republican I just haven't been able to because I haven't found any that are credible and running serious campaigns and doing serious things. They all are following Trump and if you follow Trump. In my world, I consider that disqualifying.
I admire you, Susan, in this crazy age we're in because the primary voter in the Republican Party writ large doesn't care if Donald Trump is burning the Constitution or targeting the vulnerable. They just wanted to be present again regardless. Obviously, there's I think a majority of other Americans who think differently about it. But my thesis of the case has
been that this works for him in the primary. It's going to be tested sorely in the national election, and the Republicans are and that's why I keep calling it a hostage video, because they're not taking the steps they need to break out of his grip, and they're going to pay a price, I think at the netal level if the Democrats are smart about how they campaign.
Great point on that note.
Let's take a break, and then I want to come back and talk with you about Donald Trump's vaudeville act. With Tucker Carlson on Debate Night, We're back with the wonderful Susan del Percio, a Republican strategist and always a treat to talk to. We've been talking about the first Republican debate, Susan, I now want to turn to the Trump Carlson gabfest that was meant to bigfoot the Republican debate.
But just to get us off theme for one second, I want to ask you about Rudy Giuliani, who's now been indicted along with Trump, was a mastermind of the dangerous and Bonker's effort to steal the twenty twenty election for Trump. As someone who once worked closely with America's mayor saw him become a fixture in the American imagination after nine to eleven. What do you make of what's happened to him?
Well, I've consistently just felt like, what a shame, what a downfall. He has changed so much, I can't describe it. It's every aspect of him. It's not just that he defended Trump, it's how he defended Trump. It's the nastiness. He now goes around with just a mean scowl all the time. He's stuck in Trump World. And I've got to tell you, I know people disagreed with Rudy Giuliani when he was mayor, but most people I know this because he got elected with sixty percent of the vote reelected.
They thought he was doing a good job and making the city manageable. He did clean up New York City, and on nine to eleven, he was there as a true leader should be. And it was a result, I believe, of Trump giving him a little hat on the back in twenty fifteen when he said something really nasty about Hillary Clinton and then he invited Rudy to be on the plane. And then Rudy's like, oh, relevant again, and that's what started to turn him.
It's sad, so that deep neediness to be in the spotlight, to be needed, to be seen as a player. He's that insecure.
And that being said, I think if it wasn't enough that Donald Trump has spent twenty million dollars on lawyers and still hasn't paid Rudy Giuliani, I think going through that jail the other day for Rudy was devastating. And I do believe. I believe this before he went to the jail to get booked. I think he's a perfect case for flipping. He does not want to go to prison. And you know there's even talk among like inner circle people like he remembers who he put.
Away and how he went about it, which was to squeeze the people at the bottom to go after the people at the top. So he knows he's going to get squeezed.
And he also knows who's in the prison system and that he's vulnerable.
Yeah, and that Trump's really not going to help him. Trump has an helping him with his legal bills. Trump will cut him loose as soon as he can.
Yep.
Speaking of Trump, he's been indicted four times ninety one felony counts, including trying to sabotage the election. He decides not to attend the first Republican debate. Fox courts him mightily to become part of the political process. He ignores it and instead does a little sit down in a cabin with Tucker Carlson. And it was about forty five minutes long. I'm sorry to say I watched the whole
thing because I had to. But I'd really love to know what your big takeaway was from the Trump Carlson puppet show.
Oh, there's so many And again, I like, you had to watch it, so it was not something I enjoyed in any shape or measure. But first of all, originally I thought it was going to be true counterprogramming, meaning it would be live so he can respond to what's going on in the debate. Now, that could have had a lot of fireworks. But I think one of the reasons he had to tape it and also wipe on Trump was not on that debate stage is his lawyers.
Just like the lawyers prevented him from doing a big press conference on Monday to reveal all that was canceled, that was him listening to his lawyers. I think he's got to be surrounded all the time. And that interview, I don't know if it's an interview, that discussion that war.
Comody had come.
Yeah, my guess is that the lawyers were like right next to him, like, don't say that, don't say.
That, especially because also he's gotten in trouble because of his offhand remarks on TV and the EG and Carol case and in the federal prosecutions around nine to eleven and the classifyed documents. So he's already created defense problem for himself by being on TV.
So if we would have seen that conversation ten years ago among two people maybe of some prominence, but not the level of Tucker and Trump, we would have said, oh my god, right room, conspiracy what rabbit hole did you go down to find that wacky video?
Do you know? I was talking to someone in the office about old Saturday Night Live skits, and I remember one like right after Henry Kissinger's memoir came out of his time in the White House with Nixon, and he revealed that Nixon was drinking too much during the Watergate crisis and at one point asked him to kneel and pray with him, and Saturday Night Live did just this spoof of that of you know, I think it was Dan Ackroyd as Richard Nixon going, you know, Henry kneel
down next to me and pray, and they're in front of a Abraham Lincoln portrait that begins talking to them, and everyone was like, gosh, this is so crazy. Look what was going on in the White House and that era, Like it's so quaint and silly, because in the Trump era, these looney bizarre things happened publicly all the time, including during the Carlson Trump conversation.
Yeahs Luoneyton. And again, I think a conversation is just I wish there was a better word I could use, because a conversation means an exchange of ideas of some sort. But this was just full of hate and anger. And I will say this, There's one thing that I'm always aware of, and it really irks me, or I shouldn't say it's beyond irks me, it concerns me. Is the talk of violence that was used. You know, we're talking about elections. We know what happens when we talk about violence.
We've seen you know, Ruby the election worker in Georgia, like people going after we know what it is to see people showing up with guns in front of Supreme Court justices home. These are things that truly concern me because they're right at that pillar of like shaking the foundation of our democracy.
I'm so glad you focused on that because I think that is the core takeaway from their exchange, because Carlson came at it in three different ways. You know, he said, early on the left protested against you, and then they impeached you, and now they've indicted you. It's not gonna work.
They're probably just going to kill you, right, And Trump didn't really bite fully, he went off into one of his weird meandering in the forest thoughts, and then Carlson came back to it again and said, you know, don't you think they really want to kill you? And Trump kind of well, they're all animals, and then he moved on.
And then towards the very end of the interview, he asked Trump if he thought there'd be a civil war, and Trump finally bit and he engaged with him, and that gave him a moment to reflect on January sixth, twenty twenty one, which Trump called a sort of a loving, beautiful moment, which it was certainly not. But then went on to say that among his supporters he sees both passion and hatred and he thinks that's a bad combination. And Tucker Carlson agrees and said, you're right, that is
a bad combination. But of course, Tucker Carlson and Donald Trump jointly have fattened their wallets, their egos, and their influence by stoking hatred and passion among viewers and listeners. Do you think we're headed for.
Violent Well, let me give you this number. Thirty three percent. That number is the amount of people who believe it is okay to sometimes engage in violence political violence. That came from the Common Good. It's a nonprofit, nonpartisan group that looks for solutions to problems, works with independence.
And that's a survey of voters recently of Bipartisan survey. What was the sample group.
So here's what I can tell you. It was their first annual index. They did it in October and it was basically starting to quantify and track levels of division in our country. It was conducted by Emerson College of a national multi model survey of one thousand people. Data was collected October eighth through eleventh, twenty twenty two. But thirty three percent like that was jarring to me. By the way, forty three percent believe a civil war is likely.
That's the thinking. Yeah, that's why it so dangerous to keep lighting these matches. It's going to cause a wildfire at some point. And it may not be a huge group this time, but there are going to be a lot along Wilfs out there and people thinking about crazy stuff.
We should remember that there are more weapons in the hands of individuals in the United States than the police force has.
I mean, I just go back to Gretchen Whitmore and how there was an assassination tempt basically being plotted away and it was stopped, thankfully, But they were moving along with that plan, and in Michigan you can carry long guns to the.
Capitol, which in fact they did exactly.
So the potential for violence in this country is just right there every time. But more importantly, going back to the conversation, the fact that that's how they think. I don't know if they do it for ratings or just to excite people, but they both care about what sells, and they believe that violence sells also.
I think they believe that creating the idea that Trump is somehow a martyr right and the possible victim of a legal system that's holding him accountable, because by all accounts, he looks like a serial criminal and he's an insurrectionist, and the system has finally come around to holding him into account. Carlson and Trump have an interest in saying, oh, he's just a martyr for the cause, the MAGA cause.
Can you do me a favor please. As I was listening to it, I was kind of doing a few other things, cleaning up whatever. And this whole thing with the Panama Canal and China is so bewildering to me because I just know it, like in my sense of living in this world that it's not true. But what kind of craziness is this?
Well again, you know you were talking about how smart and shrewd and important is Carlson and Trump to sell things. And Trump came back to that in this conversation in twenty sixteen. Well, actually in twenty fifteen when he rolled down the escalator at Trump Tower, Remember he sort of laid out this very racist and dark vision about immigrants, their criminals, their rapists, some of them might be nice people. And during the Carlson conversation he said his primary issue
was border. He didn't call it the border or immigration, he just said border, said that it basically everyone coming from Latin America, primarily Guatemala, were criminals. So he was ringing that bell again. And I think he got a lot of traction at twenty fifteen to twenty sixteen around the Yellow Menace scare with China, as well as the fact that a lot of working class jobs did go overseas.
And I think working class Americans feel deeply aggrieved that neither Republicans nor Democrats have authentically provided solutions to folks who are in industries that have gotten chewed up amid the technological revolution. And so I think Trump came back to that on China, but only as Trump could to say that China controls the panelm Canal. That is not true. China runs a couple of businesses that handle services at either end of the canal itself, but Panama itself, the
country where the canal is, controls the Panama Canal. And it's just untrue. But I think Trump doesn't count on his closest supporters getting to the facts. He counts in them being alarming. The idea that China controls a transit point, and that was shocking to me. It was very shocking.
And in the same way that they started, the departure point for their conversation was talking about Jeffrey Epstein, And as Tucker Carlson said, you know, I'm not someone who traffics and conspiracy theories, but boy, don't you think Jeffrey Epstein was murdered in jail? And that's a nuts way to begin a conversation with someone running for president?
I think, yeah, I think while it was leading to the bigger question, do you think they'll come after you.
Susan, I want to take another quick break and then we'll come right back. We're back with Susan del Percio, a veteran Republican strategist. We've been talking about the First Republican Debate, the Trump Carlson Vaudeville Act, and Trump's firm hold on the GOP's primary voters. So Sudan, how do you think this is all going to shake out for the Republican Party short.
Term twenty twenty four. If Trump's the nominee, he loses, I think it could be so bad. Between trumping at the top of the ticket and the issue of women's healthcare and their right to control their body is the only issue that can turn Mitch McConnell from potentially being majority leader, which is thought quite possible because of the way the map works. The Democrats need to win six seats, is basically what they're fighting for, and the Republican should
take control of the Senate. But under these circumstances, I think it's possible that the Democrats sweep immediately all three House, Senate and White House. Because Donald Trump is a problem for every rept Republican running. And it doesn't matter if you say I don't believe in conspiracy theories, I believe
that Biden won. If you go against Trump on every issue, But you're running down ticket from him, You're still lassoed with Trump, and you're still talking about it because people are going to always ask you, oh, Trump said this, do you agree? Because you're a Republican now Looking a little long term, I used to say twenty twenty eight was going to be the year we'd see a lot to shake out. But I also back then didn't see Donald Trump running for president again. So Donald Trump, when
he was elected did something very smart. He reached out to all the Republican state committees. And it didn't matter if it was an important state or New York or California, places where Republicans have no chance of winning any statewide races. But he reached out to the Republican committee members and the chairman, chair members and base. He got them to stack because he had the support, you know, or they
supported him. I should say that's who's running state government, that's who's choosing local candidates, that's who's getting you know, whether it's congress or city council. I thought enough losses would cycle those people out because people are going to screen for better candidates and stronger leadership. But they're still there and they're going to be there in twenty twenty six. They're just runing twenty twenty four out. So I think it's going to take another eight years to really flush
out the system. But it doesn't mean incremental changes can't happen and certain states can't change, you know, maybe a Senate seat here or there, and maybe get someone with some common sense. It's okay to be super conservative as long as you're not, you know, in the steps.
Of just principled and law abiding about it.
Imagine that be lawbin. But so I think that's where it's possible. But like people always say, Susan, you always trust the Republican Party, and yet you call yourself a Republican strategist. Why aren't you a Democrat or at least an independent. I'm like, because this is a two party system country, whether you want it to be or not. I understand the independent and third party candidates, but really
it's run by Democrats and Republicans. And if there are no Republicans talking about governance, at least speaking up and having a voice out there, then we all lay down. And what's the point of that?
And presumably some of the values you hold we've never gotten specifically into sort of the laundry list of why you consider yourself a Republican. But if it's classic Republican values lower taxes, less regulation, a strong foreign policy, tilting towards conservative uncertain social issues, or a plurality of them, maybe not.
Okay, maybe not. But I actually think like.
For example, so you're maybe a Rockefeller Republican.
Exactly, but I would argue that for example, gay marriage or abortion. I'll take the libertarians stand on that, saying it's actually conservative to say stay out of my bedroom and stay out of my body. That's actually a very conservative point of view. I know, it's not what the.
Last conservatism, yea, not contemporary conservative. What are Republican voters get from the GOP that they aren't getting from Democrats? Do you think there's something that Democrats could do without giving up their core value to court Republicans or is that just always going to be a bridge too far on both sides.
No. I think you could see democrats moderate Democrats start making inroads, but it has to be in a way where frankly, the top of the tickets not Joe Biden. I mean right now, the leadership there with Biden at the top is something that is going to hurt turnout in twenty twenty four. And I'm so who did Republicans and independence for Biden in the Lincoln Project. So I was trying to get those Republicans to say, like, I know you voted fir him twenty sixteen, but you can't
do it again. You know what he is, vote for Biden. That was the difference in the election. I'm not say my effort like there were a lot of groups doing.
When I'm getting theme that I that theme.
And frankly, now what concerns me is that those people aren't going to show up in twenty twenty four because they really can't stand Biden. They really can't. They said, I'll give him four years. I don't like him, but I'll give him my vote. There's no way I could vote for Donald Trump.
And they can't stand him. Why.
It's a great question. I think they take the most liberal policies he has and amplifies them. I don't think they realize that Joe Biden has been one of the most bipartisan presidents.
And a moderate, a moderate certainly with his own party.
Yeah, and I do think age is a problem for him. But I also could say.
There's a lack of confidence Kamala Harris as his potential successor. I think that's also a problem they're dealing with.
And ask Democrats why they're not excited to go out and vote for them. I mean, if you can't get a lot of Democrats excited, it's gonna be a lot harder to get a couple of Republicans now.
Having said all that, it wasn't like Joe Biden in twenty twenty was a young man ball of fire tyro rushing across the political landscape, and people still voted for him for the reason. I think one of the reasons they voted for him was what you just identified that
it also was a vote against another Trump term. Why should we think that voted are any less alarmed by Trump now than they were in twenty twenty If they were willing to sort of hold their noses and vote for someone they didn't have complete confidence in II Joe Biden in twenty twenty, Why isn't it incredible argument to be made that the House is burning justice ferociously right now. Plus Trump's been indicted, his methods and his predilections have
all been made very public again. Why wouldn't that message work now?
Well, is it enough to get people to turn out? No, that's the problem.
Why not?
Some of it is going after Trump is but I actually think the abortion issue will be the factor that helps Democrats get over the line. That will be the primary issue and democracy. But the other thing was people said, all right, we need to change this. Joe Biden will basically be the pivot to normalcy. Not Joe Biden's fault. But we are not in normalcy. So then you give
up on it. So you say, you know what, maybe this whole system has gone to hell in a handbasket and that's it, Like I give up, or I just can't vote for Biden. It in no way I'm voting for Trump. But I'm just gonna sit this one out.
I mean, I think Biden's messengers have been focusing properly on where the economy is. You know, job growth has been great, Inflation has been a nightmare, but that is cooling. And the US has proved to be the most resilient global post COVID economy of any And I think they've run good foreign policy in Ukraine, et cetera, et cetera.
I agree, but I think Republicans have successfully weaponized wokeism, and some of that gets I think, ruthlessly and inaccurately deployed nationally, and Biden suffers from some of that.
And another thing that I believe you're going to see happen and it's going to hurt turnout for Democrats is the mortgage rates. They're the highest they've been in twenty four years, and that means people can't buy a home. That to them is the sense of am I doing well? And it's not because for the price of the house, but with the mortgage, it's just too much of a heavy lift. And when I did a lot of polling in twenty twenty two, I was surprised to see affordable
housing creeping up there. And then we broke it out and saw home ownership, and then we focus groups on it, and when you saw people frustrated they can't afford a home, like they're working two jobs and I can't like it's what breaks them, and it's what says, like the system, who cares? They're all bad.
We could do a whole show on housing. I will point out that even with these escalated interest rates on houses, the rates twenty years ago were considered historically low at the time. We've just been through this era of such rock bottom rates that everyone could get mortgages. I mean, we would go down a rabbit hole on that as a topic, but it's a great one for you to bring up. I want to ask you one last question.
I always like to ask people at the end of the show what they've learned, and I wanted to ask you what you've learned from this recent round of Republican debates and Trump's side show that you didn't know prior to that occurring.
I know now that the Republicans, other than Trump running will not offer a vision of their own or for the country's future. Sure, I was really hoping to see that in the debate. I really thought that was a great opportunity, and I realized they just aren't the caliber of people we need running this country. When it comes to that Tucker Carlson interview with Donald Trump, the violence,
I didn't expect it to be so violent. Like the talk it was threaded throughout, and even Trump's responses, you know, the way he spoke, I knew it would be him just spouting off and saying, you know, I did everything perfectly. I just didn't quite expect.
That, Susan. We are out of time and I could have kept talking to you for at least another hour. So I'm grateful that you came and spent a little bit of time with me today.
Oh great to be with you, Tim, Thank you for having me.
Susan Delpercio is a Republican political strategist and an advisor to a variety of political and corporate campaigns. You can find her on LinkedIn and on Twitter at del Percio s Here at Crash Course, we believe the collisions can be messy, impressive, challenging, surprising, and always instructive. In today's Crash Course, I learned that at least six of the seven Republican challengers to Donald Trump for the presidential nomination lack the courage to stand up for their own convictions
and condemn Donald Trump for being a serial lawbreaker. What did you learn? We'd love to hear from you. You can tweet at the Bloomberg Opinion handle at Opinion or me at Tim O'Brien using the hashtag Bloomberg Crash Course. You can also subscribe to our show wherever you're listening right now, and please leave us a review, it helps more people find the show. This episode was produced by
the indispensable Anna Maserakas, Moses Ondem and me. Our supervising producer is Magnus Henrickson, and we had editing help from Sagebauman, Katie Boyce, Jeff Grocott, Mike Nize, and Christine Dandon by Lart. Blake Maples does our sound engineering and our original theme song was composed by Luis Garra. I'm Tim O'Brien. We'll be back next week with another Crash course