Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

Patrick McKenzie•www.complexsystemspodcast.com

We live in a world where our civilization and daily lives depend upon institutions, infrastructure, and technological substrates that are _complicated_ but not _unknowable_. Join Patrick McKenzie (patio11) as he discusses how decisions, technology, culture, and incentives shape our finance, technology, government, and more, with the people who built (and build) those Complex Systems.

Last refreshed: June 25th, 2026 at 9:05 AM

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Episodes

Betting on the future via prediction markets, with Stephen Grugett of Manifold

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Stephen Grugett, a co-founder of Manifold, to discuss prediction markets. They cover how prediction markets work, their efficiency in aggregating information, and why they serve as a minority report against prevailing narratives. They cover past controversies, potential risks, and the philosophical value of prediction markets. – Full transcript available here : https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/prediction-markets-stephen-grugett/ – Spo...

Aug 01, 2024•52 min•Ep. 4

Reporting on tech with Kelsey Piper

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Kelsey Piper, a journalist for Vox’s Future Perfect. Kelsey recently reported on equity irregularities at OpenAI in May of 2024, leading to an improvement of their policies in this area. We discuss the social function of equity in the technology industry, why the tech industry and reporters have had a frosty relationship the last several years, and more. – Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/reporting-tech-kelsey-...

Jul 25, 2024•1 hr 7 min•Ep. 3

Writing the first draft of financial history with Byrne Hobart

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Byrne Hobart to discuss Byrne’s vantage point as writer of The Diff , a tech and finance newsletter. Byrne explains the toxicity of the 30-year mortgage, the dynamics of the finance newsletter ecosystem, how rationalist epistemics can be applied to hedge funds, and the joy of learning about an industry from scratch. – Full transcript here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/writing-history-byrne-hobart/ – Sponsors: Safebase Ready to save time a...

Jul 18, 2024•51 min•Ep. 2

How the Smart Money teaches trading with Ricki Heicklen

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) and Ricki Heicklen discuss Ricki’s innovative approaches to teaching trading. Trading is traditionally taught only by practitioners, to practitioners. The curricula that trading firms use are not published externally, to avoid empowering competitors. Ricki explains how she teaches trade mechanics, how markets and traders react to new information, and the security mindset necessary for trading, including protecting sensitive information and avoiding signaling strategies...

Jul 11, 2024•1 hr 40 min•Ep. 1

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