We live in a world where our civilization and daily lives depend upon institutions, infrastructure, and technological substrates that are _complicated_ but not _unknowable_. Join Patrick McKenzie (patio11) as he discusses how decisions, technology, culture, and incentives shape our finance, technology, government, and more, with the people who built (and build) those Complex Systems.
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Patrick McKenzie reads from his 2024 Bits About Money essay on ACATS, the Automated Customer Account Transfer Service that governs how Americans move investment accounts between brokerages, then updates it with regulatory developments (and industry infighting) from early 2026. The essay covers why a system underpinning trillions of dollars in assets was deliberately designed to skip verifying whether transfers are actually authorized, what the three-business-day shot clock means in practice, and...
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Aaron Brown, author of Wrong Number, to examine why institutions that produce bad statistics face so few consequences for doing so. They trace the pattern from Aaron's 1975 summer job, where two credentialed experts confidently produced opposite conclusions about whether American tractors ran on diesel or gasoline, through decades of case studies involving the NTSB, COVID-era research, and the eviction moratorium. Along the way they discuss why financial m...
The improbable but true story of how non-profits operating a private intelligence agency to combat terrorism decided to interfere with campaign infrastructure in a U.S. election. This piece includes original public interest reporting, following on the previous episode on how the Southern Poverty Law Center became financial infrastructure . If you have previously read Bits about Money's reporting on this subject, note there are two major additions here: 1) direct evidence of interference in campa...
Patrick McKenzie reads from his latest Bits About Money essay, walking through why bank fraud charges are a prosecutor's favorite tool, how the Bank Secrecy Act's surveillance regime is designed to force criminals into impossible tradeoffs, and why lying to a bank is one of the easiest crimes to prove. He then applies that framework to the April 2026 DOJ indictment of the Southern Poverty Law Center, tracing how a covert informant-payment scheme run through fictitious shell entities to become a ...
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) reads his classic Bits about Money essay on how checks shaped the entire American payments infrastructure, from the origins of ACH to why a standard US bank account is, technically, a credit product. He then examines what happened when DOGE tried, via Executive Order 14247, to eliminate federal paper check disbursements by September 2025. The carve-outs Treasury eventually had to make map almost exactly onto the essay's original argument. Checks are the honey badger of...
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) reads his classic Bits about Money essay explaining why revenue recognition in software is more complicated than most engineers, founders, and financial reporters think. The essay covers the accounting rules behind SaaS subscriptions, the deferred revenue problem that surprised him when he sold his own companies, and the surprisingly intricate standards governing virtual goods in mobile games. He then turns to AI labs, where rapid revenue growth has prompted questions ...
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) reads his classic Bits About Money essay on why your bank deposit is not what you think it is. He explains the capital stack that makes deposits appear riskless while funding genuinely risky businesses, and why the "no questions asked" property of money took the United States roughly a hundred years to engineer. Patrick updates the essay with commentary on SVB's collapse, the Voyager collapse and emergency injunctions about the finer points of ACH plumbing, and the GEN...
In this episode of Complex Systems, Patrick McKenzie riffs on why public sector payroll modernization is even more likely to fail than the typical public software procurement project. He then goes into a wider discussion about payroll providers and their role as software, payment rails, and a sink for an enduring controversy in political economy. We want robust state capacity and hate income taxes. He breaks down the history of tax withholding as a state-deputized collection mechanism and explai...
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) explains how compliance regimes designed to be viral brought many more firms into the scope of frameworks like SOC 2. This created a market demand for compliance-on-the-cheap by companies like Delve. Delve has been accused in an anonymous bit of investigative journalism as engaging in Potemkin compliance. Patrick contrasts what real audits look like with what Delve allegedly delivered. He argues that selling compliance theater as compliance is fraud, not the sort of be...
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) reads his classic Bits about Money essay explaining why the debt collection industry earns its “river of effluvia” metaphor. From the accounting standards that force banks to "charge off" delinquent accounts to the large CSV files that constitute the only proof of a debt's existence, he explores how the system prioritizes accounting finality over legal and factual accuracy. The conversation reveals why the single most effective way to resolve a debt is often forcing a ...
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) and Philip Kiely, early employee at Baseten, discuss the inference stack: the critical layer of software and hardware that sits between a model’s weights and a user’s prompt. They cover inference engineering, how intermediate layers are evolving over a technical stack that is changing every six months, and how sophisticated organizations are actually consuming LLMs beyond just writing their questions into chatbot apps. – Full transcript available here: www.complexsyste...
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) deconstructs the "original sin" of payments: building a global financial substrate on shared secrets that were distributed promiscuously to function. He examines the multi-decade game of Whack-a-Mole played by the industry to balance the "optimal amount of fraud" against the catastrophic conversion hit of high-friction security. From the physical failure of terminal buttons to the smartphone finally solving the lifecycle problem of cryptographic tokens, Patrick explore...
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) and Luke Farrell examine the structural "technical imagination" gap that prevents the US government from delivering high-fidelity digital services. They discuss why states routinely pay full price 29 times for the same buggy codebase, why failure is the default outcome, and why rooms full of government administrators cannot muster the expertise to say a two line code change should be trivial. They also discuss Luke’s work on the "means testing industrial complex,” why ...
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) reads an essay about "industrial-scale" fraud and why it should be treated as a professional business process rather than a series of isolated accidents. He explains how fraudsters leverage specialized supply chains—shared CPAs, incorporation agents, and "least attentive" banks—to loot public funds. Patrick argues that the government’s "pay-and-chase" model is fundamentally broken and suggests that simple "proof of work" functions, like a 30-second cell phone video of ...
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) reads an essay about the business of check cashing, a misunderstood industry. He explains why cashing a check is actually a "new credit extension" where the bank bets on both the writer and the payee, and why profit-maximizing institutions often decline to bank individuals who represent even a "material risk" of a single bounced check. From the manual "rituals" of endorsement to the way fintechs like Ingo Money and Cash App use persistent identity to narrow the risk en...
This episode features Patrick McKenzie (patio11) showcasing Claude Code's capabilities by tackling a real-world business challenge: recovering failed subscription payments. He details how Claude navigated complex API integrations across Stripe, Ghost, and email providers, demonstrating its ability to read documentation, resolve dependencies, and make intelligent security choices. The experience fundamentally transformed his coding workflow, solving a problem that had cost his business thousands of dollars for years, underscoring the "seismic advance" LLMs bring to engineering and knowledge work.
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Ruxandra Teslo to discuss why drug development keeps getting more expensive despite revolutionary new treatment modalities from GLP-1 agonists to gene therapies. They discuss Eroom’s Law (Moore’s Law in reverse) and Ruxandra's Common Technical Document Project, which aims to build the "Stack Overflow of clinical development" by making regulatory submissions publicly accessible. This will fill a present hole in the education of researchers, lower barriers f...
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) sits down with Intercom co-founder Des Traynor to examine customer support through the lens of Conway's Law, Goodhart's Law, and several decades of accumulated organizational scar tissue. They discuss how AI agents are democratizing white-glove service, why modern LLMs have retrained user expectations around “chatbots” very quickly, and the surprisingly liberating effect of talking to something that will never judge you for missing a loan payment. – Full transcript ava...
Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) reads his latest Bits about Money essay explaining why he “loves Regulation E more than any rational person does.” He explains how Reg E created a privately-administered legal system processing over 100 million complaints annually—dwarfing the formal U.S. court system—and why banks are now trying to avoid these obligations for Zelle's nine figure fraud problem. – Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/the-magic-spell-reg-e/ – Sponsors: MongoDB &...
Our annual year-in-review episode covers some recurring themes from 2025 and some behind-the-curtains discussion of running a podcast. Patrick McKenzie (patio11) sits down with producer Sammy Cottrell to discuss the most popular episodes of the year, the impact of AI coding tools, the challenges of video podcasting, Sammy's role as a "fixer" finding guests, and much more. – Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/2025-in-review-with-sammy-cottrell/ – Sponsor: Framer is a de...
For this week's holiday-inspired Complex Systems, Patrick reads his essay from Bits about Money on the gift card paradox: a legitimate payments rail, yet also a primary vector for fraud that leaves victims without recourse. – Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/gift-cards-and-the-fraud-supply-chain/ – Sponsors: Givewell & Framer Support proven charities that deliver measurable results and learn how to maximize your charitable impact with GiveWell . Go to givewell.or...
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) walks through how perpetual futures work, from funding rates to liquidations to the surprise of automatic deleveraging. Perps are the dominant trading mechanism in crypto (6-8X larger than spot volume) and exist primarily to let exchanges and market makers run casinos more capital-efficiently. He explains why this intellectually interesting innovation probably won't escape crypto, despite what crypto enthusiasts might expect. – Full transcript availabl...
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Ben Reinhardt, founder of Speculative Technologies, to examine how science gets funded in the United States and why the current system leaves much to be desired. They dissect the outdated taxonomy of basic, applied, and development research, categories encoded into law that fail to capture how actual breakthrough science happens. – Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/the-economics-of-discovery-with-ben-reinhardt/ ...
This episode explores the often-overlooked complexities of managing startup equity, a significant portion of tech employee compensation. Billy Gallagher and Patrick McKenzie discuss the information asymmetry that costs less-savvy employees millions, covering crucial decisions like early exercise options, 83(b) elections, and navigating tender offers. They highlight the legal and tax pitfalls, the inadequacy of typical HR advice, and how Prospect aims to help employees make better, more informed financial choices with their illiquid stock.
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) reads his essay on title insurance, a service designed to never be performed with a "laughably low" 5% loss ratio compared to 50-80% for almost all types of insurance. The typical American moves every seven to eight years, paying a $500 annual tax for basically no good or service. This is due to a quirk about how America records real estate ownership: it mostly doesn’t. Confused? Welcome to the joyous anarchy that is American real estate. – Full transcript available he...
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) reads his Bits about Money essay on deposit insurance, explaining this critical financial infrastructure, with some thoughts on its performance during 2023. He covers what deposit insurance actually covers (and critically, what it doesn't), how fintech users often misunderstand their exposure to counterparty risk, and the anatomy of bank failures. This is infrastructure you rely on as much as electricity: ubiquitous, critical, hopefully invisible, and worth understandi...
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie reads his essay about the financial infrastructure that makes buying windows painless. When a window installer can originate, underwrite, and fund a $25,000 loan in 15 minutes before leaving your house, it's because four parties—window companies, facilitating platforms, specialized banks, and capital providers—have built a system that actually works. Patrick explains how modern consumer lending learned from 2008 to create better underwriting, clearer compliance,...
Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) shares his remarks to the Bank of England on critical vulnerabilities in financial infrastructure. Drawing from the July 2024 CrowdStrike outage which brought down teller systems at major US banks, Patrick discusses how regulatory guidance inadvertently created dangerous software monocultures. He also examines the stablecoin market, its impressive growth, and the elephant tethered to the room. He also delivers a message from Silicon Valley to other centers of power on...
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined again by Ricki Heicklen to discuss Metagame 2025, a conference where 250 attendees were divided into Purple and Orange teams competing for territories across campus. Patrick built a complete roguelike RPG in 25 days using LLMs, discovering that providing minimal world-building context transformed generic fantasy outputs into emotionally resonant storytelling. They discuss the power and responsibility of game designers, how games create pedagogical experiences...
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Oliver Habryka, who runs Lightcone Infrastructure—the organization behind both the LessWrong forum and the Lighthaven conference venue in Berkeley. They explore how LessWrong became one of the most intellectually consequential forums on the internet, the surprising challenges of running a hotel with fractal geometry, and why Berkeley's building regulations include an explicit permission to plug in a lamp. The conversation ranges from fire codes that inadve...
