A benign monthly CPI print for May led us to bring forward our next RBA rate cut forecast to July. Belinda Allen and Harry Ottley from the Australian Economics team run through the details of the change in call as well as deep dive into the CPI print. Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). Before listening to this podca...
Jun 27, 2025•13 min•Ep. 328
Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss the top influences affecting currency markets this week including the conflict in the Middle East, the annual NATO summit as well as the Bank of Japan’s interest rate outlook. Disclaimer: Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to r...
Jun 23, 2025•9 min•Ep. 327
The labour force survey was broadly a non-event, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%. The final key data point ahead of the July RBA Board meeting is due next week: the monthly CPI indicator. Belinda Allen and Harry Ottley discuss the key takeaways from this week and preview the upcoming inflation data. Disclaimer: Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Austra...
Jun 20, 2025•14 min•Ep. 326
Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss the key influences on currencies this week include conflict in the Middle East and meetings by the US Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Japan. Disclaimer: Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disc...
Jun 16, 2025•7 min•Ep. 325
It was quieter week for Aussie economy data this week with private sector releases dominating. The CommBank HSI as well as updates on business and consumer sentiment continue to point to subdued economic conditions in Australia. Next week, the May labour force survey is in focus. ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AF...
Jun 13, 2025•11 min•Ep. 324
Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss insights from Kristina’s note on trade diversion Disclaimer: Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au . No Reliance This podcast is not investment r...
Jun 12, 2025•10 min•Ep. 323
Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss the top influences affecting currency markets this week, including US consumer price index for May, UK labour market data and US-China trade talks. Disclaimer: Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimer...
Jun 10, 2025•7 min•Ep. 322
It was an important week with the RBA minutes and Q1 25 GDP data released. The RBA minutes retained a dovish tone and economic growth disappointed keeping a July rate cut very much in play. Disclaimer: Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaim...
Jun 06, 2025•14 min•Ep. 321
In this week’s episode Joseph Capurso and Kristina Clifton discuss the likely drivers of currencies this week including tariffs, US economic data and the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada interest rate announcements. Disclaimer: Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). Before listening to this podcast, you are advi...
Jun 02, 2025•11 min•Ep. 320
The week saw the release of the April CPI which showed an unchanged print at 2.4% rather than a fall. Belinda Allen and Stephen Wu discuss why it was stronger than expected and what it means for the RBA. Retail trade disappointed and the building blocks for GDP were also released. Next week all eyes will be on Q1 25 GDP and the RBA Minutes for May. Disclaimer: Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of...
May 30, 2025•14 min•Ep. 319
Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss the top influences on currency markets this week including higher tariffs on Europe, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision and Canadian GDP data. Disclaimer: Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full ...
May 26, 2025•8 min•Ep. 318
The RBA cut the cash rate by 25bp to 3.85% on Tuesday. The post-meeting communication was more dovish than most expected. In this week's podcast, Belinda Allen and Harry Ottley from the Australian Economics team discuss at the decision itself and what it means for the prospect of future rate cuts. ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN...
May 23, 2025•12 min•Ep. 317
Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss the top influences affecting currency markets, including the US government’s credit rating downgrade, the Group of Seven finance ministers meeting and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy meeting. Disclaimer: Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). Before listening to this podcas...
May 19, 2025•6 min•Ep. 316
It was a big week of data with wages and labour force printing above economist expectations, but in line with RBA forecasts. Belinda Allen and Gareth Aird wrap up the week and then turn their attention to the May RBA Board Meeting. A 25bp rate cut is expected. ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank...
May 16, 2025•18 min•Ep. 315
Join CBA’s Head of International and Sustainability Economics, Joseph Capurso, and Currency Strategist and China Specialist, Carol Kong, as they delve into the latest on trade wars and economics. Disclaimer: Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR di...
May 15, 2025•24 min•Ep. 314
Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the top three influences on the Australian dollar this week including the US CPI, Australian labour market data and US trade developments. Disclaimer: Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, wh...
May 12, 2025•9 min•Ep. 313
This week, CBA economist Harry Ottley discusses the economic implications of Labor's election victory with Chief Economist Luke Yeaman. Luke takes a deep dive into Labor's economic mandate for the next term, current economic conditions, and key challenges ahead. Senior Economist Stephen Wu then joins the podcast to review this week's key data flow and preview the important week ahead. Disclaimer: Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Rese...
May 09, 2025•21 min•Ep. 312
Joseph Capurso and Carol Kong discuss the top influences affecting currency markets this week, including possible trade deals, the Federal Reserve’s meeting and the Bank of England’s meeting. Disclaimer: Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR discla...
May 05, 2025•7 min•Ep. 311
This week, Stephen Wu and Gareth Aird discuss the March quarter inflation numbers and what it means for the upcoming May RBA Board meeting. Disclaimer: Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.co...
May 02, 2025•12 min•Ep. 310
Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss the top three influences on currency markets this week including US economic data, the Australian CPI and the Bank of Japan monetary policy announcement. Disclaimer: Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disc...
Apr 28, 2025•6 min•Ep. 309
The S&P Global PMI was the lone domestic release out last week but the week ahead is much busier. The highlight will be the Q1 2025 CPI which CBA Research believe will rubber stamp an interest rate cut in May. Disclaimer: Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to rea...
Apr 27, 2025•9 min•Ep. 308
It was a quieter week in financial markets. Locally the highlight was the March labour force release showing an unemployment rate of 4.1%. Digging deeper though there are signs the labour market is cooling. The RBA Minutes highlight growing global concerns but local economic data over the next month will be important. The Minutes note May will be an opportune time to revist policy. Disclaimer: Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Researc...
Apr 17, 2025•12 min•Ep. 307
Buses can be categorised into two markets: the public and private markets. In our latest episode, we discuss the drivers and hurdles for bus decarbonisation across both public and private bus segments. Disclaimer: Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full G...
Apr 14, 2025•11 min•Ep. 306
Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss the top influences affecting currency markets this week, including US tariffs, potential policy stimulus announcement from China as well as monetary policy decisions from the European Central bank and the Bank of Canada. Disclaimer: Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). Before li...
Apr 14, 2025•8 min•Ep. 305
Another volatile week in global markets. The team breaks down the four reasons why President Trump is pursuing tariffs and the impact on Australia. Stephen Wu and Belinda Allen also discuss the latest CBA Household Spending Indicator for March and how rising global uncertainty could be a headwind for the predicted consumer recovery. Finally it is labour force week and after a soft print in February we preview what we expect to happen. ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Important Information This podcast i...
Apr 13, 2025•17 min•Ep. 304
Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss the top influences on the Australian dollar this week including tariff news, US economic data and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy announcement. Disclaimer: Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEM...
Apr 07, 2025•7 min•Ep. 303
It was a wild week in global markets. The RBA left the cash rate on hold on Tuesday, but the news was quickly swamped by news of President Trump's so called 'reciprocal tariffs' on Thursday morning Sydney time. Amongst all this, there was a string of local economic data in Australia. In this week's podcast, Senior Economist Belinda Allen and Economist Harry Ottley sit down to make sense of a very busy week. ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed b...
Apr 06, 2025•15 min•Ep. 302
Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss the top influences on currencies this week, including President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ announcement of a new tariff regime, US economic data and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy decision. Disclaimer: Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). Before listening to this podcast, ...
Mar 31, 2025•7 min•Ep. 301
Stephen Wu and Gareth Aird first discuss last week’s February CPI numbers and the Budget. Of the two, the weaker-than-expected CPI indicator has more bearing on near-term monetary policy, including the April RBA Board meeting. But the RBA is unlikely to see the inflation data as sufficient, nor the recent data flow as conclusive enough for an April rate cut. Gareth highlights the importance of the RBA post-decision messaging. ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Important Information This podcast is approve...
Mar 30, 2025•16 min•Ep. 300
The 2025-26 Federal Budget was delivered last night by Treasurer Dr Jim Chalmers. In this Podcast, Chief Economist Luke Yeaman and Senior Economist Belinda Allen take our listeners through all the key points from the Budget. ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). Before listening to this podcast...
Mar 26, 2025•10 min•Ep. 299
