We discuss why oil remains the key macro pressure point for crypto as Iran-conflict escalation keeps inflation risk, the dollar, and higher-for-longer Fed expectations in focus. We cover why bitcoin’s setup has weakened below $70K, with ETF outflows, weak trend signals, softer holder profitability, and exchange inflows all pointing to a more fragile market. We also discuss Coinbase bringing regulated access to crypto options and perpetual futures to the US, why that could be a major institutiona...
Jun 02, 2026•29 min•Ep. 176
We cover how the April Fed minutes challenged the one-way cut narrative, why Nvidia’s strong earnings and the broader AI CapEx cycle are supporting equities without necessarily lifting crypto, and how bitcoin has absorbed meaningful ETF outflows without breaking down. We also discuss the latest roadblock for tokenized equities. Main sections (01:25 - 06:50) Fed minutes and rates repricing (06:50 - 13:50) Nvidia earnings implications and equity resilience (13:50 - 19:08) Bitcoin ETF outflows and ...
May 26, 2026•25 min•Ep. 175
we sit down with Lark Davis to discuss why hotter inflation data is forcing markets to rethink the Fed’s room to cut, and why that may keep crypto in a more selective regime. We cover whether Bitcoin is really an inflation hedge, why BTC dominance may stay elevated if liquidity remains tight, and how traders are weighing onchain data, technicals, and institutional ETF flows. We also discuss Solana’s Alpenglow upgrade and why better technology still needs to translate into usage and token value c...
May 20, 2026•40 min•Ep. 174
In this episode, we focus on three of the biggest crypto stories of the week: Circle’s Q1 results and ARC token announcement, Bitcoin’s more nuanced setup after strong ETF demand ran into a hotter CPI print, and Ethereum’s increasingly important staking and float dynamics. Main sections (01:21 - 10:17) Circle’s Q1 results & ARC token (10:17 - 19:16) Bitcoin after CPI (19:16 - 23:12) The macro framework for crypto (23:12 - 32:18) Ethereum’s setup Speakers Colin Basco — Quantitative Strategist...
May 12, 2026•34 min•Ep. 173
We connect the week’s biggest macro and crypto stories, from Iran-driven oil volatility and the equities earnings backdrop to bitcoin’s increasingly important test near $80K. We discuss why rising spot ETF inflows and tighter float have made BTC’s rebound more meaningful, but not yet a confirmed regime shift, and why the short-term holder cost basis remains the key level to watch. We also examine the fallout from the Kelp DAO exploit, how AI may increase risk in DeFi, and why prediction markets ...
Apr 28, 2026•32 min•Ep. 172
In this inaugural episode of the Coinbase Advanced podcast, we break down one of the most confusing macro environments in modern history as crypto sentiment snaps back amid Middle East negotiations. The conversation explores the blurring lines between risk-on and risk-off assets, the systemic security threats posed by Anthropic’s new Mythos AI model, and recent DeFi contagion events involving Kelp DAO and Aave. We also dive into the evolution of the "Everything Exchange," examining how the intro...
Apr 21, 2026•42 min•Ep. 171
We unpack why oil remains the key macro lens for understanding markets as renewed Iran diplomacy, elevated crude prices, stronger labor data, and sticky inflation risks continue to shape the Fed backdrop and broader risk sentiment. We discuss why Bitcoin has remained relatively resilient in this environment and how we are thinking about the market in a headline-driven regime where tactical levels matter more than long-term conviction. We also break down why Strategy’s bitcoin purchases may still...
Apr 14, 2026•35 min•Ep. 170
We unpack the latest cross asset price action in response to surging oil prices and what elevated energy prices could mean for inflation, the Fed, and broader risk sentiment. We then explore why AI agents may become one of the most important structural themes in crypto, as autonomous software increasingly needs wallets, payments, settlement, and coordination rails to transact at scale. We also discuss Ethereum’s evolving institutional story, including why activity and liquidity may be re-centeri...
Apr 01, 2026•45 min•Ep. 169
In this episode, we step back from the macro noise and focus on the biggest crypto stories of the week: (03:11 - 05:18) Why tokenization, stablecoins, AI agents, and onchain commerce are emerging as core crypto infrastructure themes. Plus, Coinbase Asset Management’s tokenized bitcoin yield fund on Base and what it says about institutional demand for compliant onchain products. (05:18 - 08:51) Why Hyperliquid’s launch of an S&P 500 perpetual matters beyond a single product: the significance ...
Mar 25, 2026•28 min•Ep. 168
This week, we unpack some major crypto market themes: The Iran shock has turned oil from a background variable into an active transmission channel for inflation and volatility, complicating the Fed’s path to rate cuts just as labor data quietly weakens in the background. What will the Fed do at its FOMC meeting this week? Bitcoin has outperformed U.S. equities and large‑cap tech on a risk‑adjusted basis since the start of March, helped by prior deleveraging and a cleaner positioning backdrop, wh...
Mar 18, 2026•38 min•Ep. 167
In this episode, we unpack the latest escalation in the Iran conflict and why the move in oil matters for markets, inflation expectations, and the Fed. We discuss how a headline-sensitive geopolitical risk premium has made oil the key macro transmission channel again, why the duration of any supply disruption matters, and what that could mean for bitcoin if this evolves from a short-lived shock into a longer war of attrition. We also explore why crypto-native venues like Hyperliquid have benefit...
Mar 10, 2026•32 min•Ep. 166
In this episode, we unpack the latest escalation in the Iran conflict and why the Strait of Hormuz standoff may be affecting market volatility and inflation-risk. We discuss the initial stability in markets before sentiment sobered on Tuesday as spillover fears grew, with oil rallying as gold fell. We then pivot to Block’s 40% workforce cut, explicitly framed as an AI-driven operating model shift, and argue it’s less a one-off layoff story and more a signal of what markets may increasingly rewar...
Mar 03, 2026•26 min•Ep. 165
In this episode, we explore AI’s role in the recent cross-asset sell off and talk about what levels to watch on bitcoin in this mostly technically driven market. Negative gamma near the $60-70k zone may exacerbate downside moves, while positive gamma closer to $85-90k levels may pin price action to the upside. Indeed, despite Strategy (MSTR) buying BTC and Bitmine buying ETH over the last week, the price action largely continues to look lackluster. We talk about why this and other factors have c...
Feb 17, 2026•29 min•Ep. 164
On this episode, we sit down with Project 11 CEO Alex Pruden to unpack what quantum computing really means for bitcoin’s long‑term security — without the hype or doom scenarios. We break down realistic timelines for “cryptographically relevant” quantum computers, which parts of bitcoin are actually at risk, and why open blockchains may be better positioned to upgrade than legacy finance. The conversation also highlights Coinbase’s Independent Advisory Board on Quantum Computing and Blockchain an...
Feb 11, 2026•47 min•Ep. 163
This week we discuss the sharp decline in crypto prices, which fell alongside gold after the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair, seemingly disproving the gold-to-bitcoin rotation narrative. We explore the lack of a clear marginal buyer for BTC, the increasing bearish positioning in the derivatives market, and the challenge for long-term holders. We also analyze the potential of digital asset treasuries as buyers, concluding their impact lessens as prices drop, and discuss recent positive reg...
Feb 04, 2026•29 min•Ep. 162
The global macro landscape is shifting fast, and this week we dive into how it’s influencing bitcoin’s price. We’ll explore potential for a rotation between bitcoin and gold as precious metals come back into focus. Then, we look at the dramatic appreciation of the Japanese Yen and what speculation about US and Japanese authorities strengthening the currency means for crypto. We’ll also cover the potential impact of new tariffs in South Korea and Canada and how that’s playing into hedging strateg...
Jan 27, 2026•38 min•Ep. 161
This week, we step back from the day‑to‑day price action and bring on Richard Galvin, Executive Chairman & CIO at Digital Asset Capital Management (DACM), to frame the 2026 crypto cycle. We dig into how his TradFi background has shaped DACM’s investment philosophy, where he’s positioning across BTC and alts, and which tail risks he worries about most this year. The conversation covers how to characterize the current market setup, the themes that could define 2026 for professional allocators,...
Jan 20, 2026•34 min•Ep. 160
We cover a lot of ground in this episode including: the effect of geopolitical developments on crypto the persistence of the BTC inflation narrative MSCI’s deferred DAT decision viral prediction markets On the macro side, the focus is on the US CPI print for December and whether this will impact the Fed’s decision making in 2026. Together, this helps tell us whether this crypto bounce is the beginning of a new leg higher or just an early‑year reset in positioning. Speakers: David Duong, CFA - Gl...
Jan 14, 2026•25 min•Ep. 159
We unpack our optimistic 1H26 crypto market outlook anchored on global liquidity support and rate-cut expectations, though energy prices and geopolitics represent potential tail risks. This may set the stage for momentum-led crypto performance and disciplined positioning. The discussion also covers the rise of tokenization—from tokenized equities to equity perps and higher collateral efficiency—and stablecoins moving beyond trading into payments and payrolls. Finally, the episode explores the so...
Jan 06, 2026•45 min•Ep. 158
In this year-end episode, our Coinbase Research team wraps up 2025 by grading their crypto market predictions from the previous year and discussing key themes for 2026. The hosts score their prior year outlook on macro trends, tokenization, and the resurgence of DeFi/DEX volumes. Find out which calls earned high marks and where projections were “overly optimistic.” They then look ahead and share their optimism for a recovery in the first half, supported by the ongoing rate cutting cycle; the ris...
Dec 16, 2025•45 min•Ep. 157
Crypto racked up some wins this week with Vanguard and Bank of America opening the door for their clients to trade the asset class, though many still wonder why BTC isn’t trading substantively higher given all the good news. Our Head of Research, David Duong, remains constructive due to favorable macro conditions but acknowledges that it’s hard to identify the marginal buyer at the moment. That said, he still thinks DATs are a meaningful source of demand. Meanwhile, the Fed decision is coming an...
Dec 09, 2025•41 min•Ep. 156
In this episode, Coinbase Research dissects the post-Thanksgiving crypto landscape, marked by low liquidity and high volatility. We debate a “trend variant” approach to dollar cost averaging (DCA), explore the implications of the Fed ending quantitative tightening, and the market implications of a highly anticipated December Fed rate cut—stressing that the commentary’s tone will matter more than most meetings. The sell off from concerns over a Bank of Japan hike (leading to an unwind of JPY carr...
Dec 02, 2025•31 min•Ep. 155
Crypto markets have gone through a broad repricing as doubts about AI ROI, the unwind of the momentum trade, and renewed uncertainty around the December FOMC meeting collide. We unpack why this macro mix matters more than usual: a prolonged government shutdown has jeopardized October 2025 releases, adding to uncertainty about what comes next. That said, we think the signal from small business earnings still points to cuts. But the longer-time-frame trend reduces the room for speculation, making ...
Nov 18, 2025•29 min•Ep. 154
This episode unpacks a fragile week in crypto markets, discussing why reactive positioning can beat buying dips in downtrends, and what November’s liquidity signals could mean for a potential year‑end turn. We map the landscape of softening demand—from corporate treasuries to ETF outflows—alongside key technical zones that now define the range, and what renewed options hedging is signaling about downside risk and rebound potential. We also talk about how shifting FOMC odds are feeding risk senti...
Nov 04, 2025•27 min•Ep. 153
Starting today, all Coinbase One US subscribers will have early access to Coinbase Research. If you’re a CB1 subscriber, check your inbox now. In this episode, we cover some of the topics from our latest Monthly Outlook. We also wade into the enterprise L1 debate following the announcement that long-time Ethereum Foundation researcher Dankrad Feist is joining Tempo — a new L1 focused on payments and stablecoins. We also walk through the latest Charting Crypto report where we unpack new investor ...
Oct 28, 2025•53 min•Ep. 152
In this episode, we dig into whether there’s more downside ahead or if the worst is now behind us following the leverage flush on October 10. We discuss how elevated altcoin open interest set up cascading liquidations and why the reset cleans up positioning but doesn’t guarantee direction. Flows remain mixed with limited BTC dip‑buying, a concentrated ETH bid, and some ETF outflows—so we prefer reactive over anticipatory positioning until breadth improves. Finally, a growing privacy theme center...
Oct 21, 2025•32 min•Ep. 151
The phrase “ Black Friday” now carries a very different connotation for crypto market participants following Friday’s flash crash that saw $19B in leveraged positions wiped out. Ostensibly, the catalyst for the move was the announcement of 100% tariffs and new export controls on China (subsequently walked back), but the unprecedented scale of the move suggests many moving parts to the story. We break down the main vectors contributing to the sell off, including the market’s massive liquidity dra...
Oct 14, 2025•35 min•Ep. 150
Bitcoin pushed past $125,000 this week as US spot ETFs saw massive inflows, and corporate treasuries added to their reserves. With the US government shutdown, what data should we be looking at for markets? Meanwhile, SWIFT’s recent blockchain announcement suggests traditional finance is rapidly adapting to crypto realities, while Stripe’s revolutionary “Open Issuance” platform democratizes stablecoin creation with backing from BlackRock and Fidelity. In other topics, are you sick of hearing abou...
Oct 07, 2025•30 min•Ep. 149
This episode breaks down the key turning points in the current macro environment, exploring why risk assets are struggling despite recent Fed dovishness and what’s driving the recent pause in DeFi total value locked (TVL) growth, even as markets search for new catalysts. The conversation moves into real-world adoption, examining fresh stablecoin and asset-tokenization initiatives on Avalanche, and considers the broader implications for digital asset treasury (DAT) markets—including the merger be...
Sep 30, 2025•28 min•Ep. 148
This week, the team analyzes the liquidation-driven downturn in BTC, ETH, and altcoins, alongside the broader macroeconomic outlook for Q4. Plus, Colin provides an in-depth analysis of ETH fundamentals, DAT activity, and developments on Base. Speakers: - Joshua Pak, Senior CES Sales Trader - Colin Basco, Institutional Research Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising....
Sep 23, 2025•22 min•Ep. 147
