3.27: Bittersweet 16 - Hour 3

Alabama is a team that's coming off of a Final Four a year ago, and there's really not anything about them as far as the resume or even the analytics, if you're somebody who pays attention to that kind of stuff, there's nothing that would indicate that they're not good enough to get back to a Final four, maybe win the whole thing. It's just at times, they've looked a little

bit complacent looking. They've looked not bored, but just vulnerable in a way that they shouldn't because they're loaded with talent. By the way I mean Alabama is. I mean Mark Sears is one of the best point guards in the country. He has been that for the last couple of years. I mean, he's he's a special player. And Grant Nelson another guy who was instrumental in their final four run last year, who's back? And you know overall, I mean, they're sitting at number six in the kin Pom there.

Every one of their losses outside of one is to really really good teams. In fact, they are twenty seven and eight and only wow, this is this is We talked yesterday about teams in the Sweet sixteen that have wins against other teams in the Sweet sixteen. Auburn has more than anybody because they've got some really impressive SEC wins obviously, but they also went out of conference and beat Houston and I believe it was Purdue, so Alabama.

I was kind of thinking maybe I shouldn't trust him to cover here, but during the break, Austin and I all I needed. All I needed was him to give me the nudge because I was leaning, Look, when it comes down to it, both teams want to do the same thing. One team is simply better at that. If they were playing a team that was really good at taking away pace and possessions, be a different story. But that's what BYU wants to do. And I just think they're gonna get in the ring with somebody that's better

at doing what they want to do. But anyways, I'm now taking Bama to cover tonight and their losses. The only loss they have to a team that's not left in the tournament is Oregon, who just lost a close game in the round of thirty two to Arizona and then also they lost to Missouri. Other than that, they've got losses to Florida twice, see Auburn, Ole, miss and Purdue.

All those teams are still dancing. So as much as at times I feel like they've looked complacent and I, you know, eight losses, I guess that's I mean, that's to me, that's not a ton But anyways, I'm trusting Bama. Maybe it'll be something because the reason I've gone so back and forth on this one is that when I've watched Alabama at times this year, again, I've never doubted like what they can do. It's like, Okay, are they really in it? Did they get bored after a final four?

Are they not hungry to get back there and maybe cut down nets at a final four? But it's never been about like, you know, again, questioning what they can do. It's like are they in it? And NATO It's is a good enough coach to where I just don't see his team in this moment coming out coming out flat.

But BYU again, when you look at what they've done since early February, I mean their only loss was in the Big twelve Tournament to Houston, who you know, is a once and one of the best teams in the country, so should be a good game. That'll be the first one. And then after that you have Maryland Florida and Florida

Florida minus six and a half. As much as I love Maryland and I've talked about him here and there throughout the year, just because I think despite not having a whole lot of depth and despite not having you know, consistent shooting, like, they got guys who can get hot, and they've got a freshman who's really really good, and I think Kevin Willard's a good coach. I just I was so some would say Florida looked vulnerable because they you know, they needed a late run and maybe some

luck too. I mean that's not a knock at them, but I think when you continue to move on in the tournament, sometimes you're going to look back at a game that was close and realized that you were fortunate because of a good call or maybe just a bad break that went against the opponent, but they needed that

late run against Duke. I'm sorry against Yukon to pull through, but it made me more impressed with Florida than I've ever been, just because that game was played at the way Yukon wanted to play it as far as style. It was a low grind, physical, beat you up kind

of match up and they prevailed. And I know Yukon is was clearly not the same team they were the previous two seasons, but Florida was in a tough spot where it looked like they were they were about to you know, they're about to slip, and they they didn't. And Walter Clayton Junior clearly one of the best guards in the country. I've never seen somebody.

And you know, he was struggling against against Yukon. I mean, at least for a stretch. I don't even know what his numbers were. I'll pull it up here. Against Yukon, he had twenty three and he made yes. So but he was he was one of six from the floor from two point range, and I remember seeing maybe all of those misses and I'm thinking, Okay, this guy's just not as night. He's coming up short, shots just aren't falling.

In fact, I remember three of his shots just very much just being short, and sure enough, he ended up catching fire. And doesn't mean he's going to be able to do that again. But I just think Florida kind of getting that real big challenge against a team with championship pedigree and then being able to kind of pull through like they should be writing a lot.

But yeah, this Maryland team, I like him. I just don't like him against this Florida squad because Florida's I mean, I think they're the best team in the country. But there's a reason that these sports books make a lot of money. One of them is because they know how to set lines that make it really tough for you to decide which way to go when it comes to betting against the spread. Because I think Alabama is four and a half. I feel confident in that one, just

because if Alabema wins. I don't see it being by I mean, I think they'll probably win this thing by seven to eight. But Maryland Florida, like that's where like I could see Maryland being down you know, twelve thirteen points and then making a late push. But what has me more so leaning Florida minus six and a half is that when you end up playing a really good team and you and you give up a big run and you're you know, do you dig yourself a hole?

Technically you're still in it, right, It's possible for you to mount to come back. I mean, look, it's not like you're down thirty. But good teams like if they are able to give themselves some distance, create some separation. I should say.

and that's that. That is one of the factors that I think makes this second weekend with really good teams better than having a Cinderella there, because now maybe it won't make for exciting finishes or big come from behind victories for somebody, which again I guess that would be entertaining to see. But like Florida's the kind of team that if they end up getting up seventeen in the

first half against Maryland, nobody'd be surprised. And the scenario where Maryland comes back and wins almost seems impossible because again, teams are going to make their runs.

be the best way to describe it. So it's not interesting, but there's no dogs barking in these first two games for me, Austin, I think both both plays here are Florida mintus six and a half in Alabama minus four and a half, and you're leaning in Arizona plus nine and a half. And I just I'm going with my my heart on that. Okay, then that tells me all I need to know.

make some money doing it. Then I have the you know, the fan bets that are more so in fact, mostly they're they're put together based off of what I want to happen, maybe not necessarily what I believe will happen, and when those win, like that's the best of both worlds, right, But those are obviously a lot of all right, absolutely, although Louisville early when they were hot in January, if you would take them to cover you were you were making money.

that would you know that rivalry is real. And I'm sure I don't know if you're a Carolina fan since Caleb Love left, Like, are you cheering against him?

But they started the season four and two and in their first you know, first six games, two of their wins were again I mean, I guess, yeah, I'm sorry. They beat Arizona, and at the time everybody thought Arizona's gonna be good, and then we realized later on that Arizona wasn't that great. So in the game they played earlier this year, it was actually in twoson right, Yeah, that was on the road, true road game for Duke.

They played them at Arizona, right, and Duke Duke won by fourteen, And Caleb Love did not have a good game in that one. He was three or thirteen with just eight points. So he's five and four over all about that game. In his five seasons as a college player, Caleb Love is five and four straight up against Duke,

And I'm trying to see what is Yeah. For his career, he averaged sixteen points on thirty seven point six percent shooting, and he scored twenty or more three times, including that twenty eight point performance in the twenty twenty two final four. So it sounds like he's he's you know, he's not super efficient, but he's other than the game. Yeah, other than the game earlier this year, he's been he's been productive.

I just don't you know. Again, I if I knew more about Arizona, i'd feel a little bit more confident in this one. But I know a lot about Duke, and I think they're scary talented.

necessarily like super confident in. But I really think that game's kind of come down to being a toss up, which is why I'm trusting that Arkansas plus five and a half will you know, we'll we'll be a safe bet, but again, you never know. I mean, look, it's all luck. I love I love betting on college hoops, and I've been you know, I've had some good, good days, bad days overall. But if I was really good at.

think I know how this played out. He made a bet on Sunday and one of those things that he bet was Kentucky winning, so like he didn't want to watch them winning, so probably just like, you know, the get all emotional bet checked out, but like he knew that maybe it would be good for the for the for the account, but like, I don't want to see it happen, right, because nobody wants to see your rival

win and dance on, especially when you lost. But my dad did a four leg parlay where he did the Saint Mary's and Alabama game, and he did same game parlays in these two matchups. So he took Alabama minus twelve and a half hit, he took under one fifty one and a half hit. In the Kentucky Illinois game, he took Kentucky minus five and a half. They covered clearly, and by the way, he got that live. These were live bets. And then he got the under one sixty

two and a half. So he put five dollars and that was plus over eleven hundred and the five bucks paid sixty. And I'm thinking, Dad, if you bet like you know, if you imagine mean again, just think about it, like if five bucks got you sixty, imagine if you bet twenty, Imagine if you bet fifty, which I net.

Look I I normally if I'm betting something like ten dollars is now like a rare thing, but usually I'm between like fifteen and twenty twenty five in most like in most bets, but I'm not like making fifty bets a day, like I'm doing parlays for the most part. But when we get later in the tournament, like I'll bet fifty bucks on something just because I know that, you know, this is my time to you know, bet more than I typically do, because I'll stop betting for

months as soon as college basketball ends. I may get in on the NBA, but like I probably won't.

But it's more fun at least for me whenever it's something that, like, at least I can convince myself and lie to myself and say, you know what, well, you you're just that good man, like you know your stuff, brother, Like that's that's what I'm telling myself whenever I do research and I win. I mean, look, winning is winning, and it's all at the end of the day, it's all luck. But college basketball lets me kind of disguise it to where I could you know, it's it's a

fun ride, all right. Quick break will come back on the other side. A lot more to get into before we get out of here, so stick around. It is Coffee and Company fuel by Thornton's on Sports Talk seven ninety.

really successful for UK women's basketball and stepped away. I guess just because he was done. Maybe there's more to it than I know. I'm sure there is, but you know, I didn't know he was looking to get back in. But he's now coaching at a Big twelve school, so I feel like he's been gone for a long time. But yeah, Matthew Mitchell heading back into coaching. Also, the comment earlier that I referenced from Tom Izoh that made

me laugh, I mean, it's really not that funny. More than anything, it's just it speaks to my maturity, I think. But he was asked about the joy from winning NCAA tournament games, which I mean, I feel like, no matter what you've done, how much you've accomplished, to know that it's winner go home, outside of being like a sick versa one or I'm sorry a one versus sixteen, or a two versus fifteen, and maybe even a three verses

of fourteen. I feel like, you know, outside of that, really the round of thirty two on, I feel like, no matter who you are, because you know that if you lose, it's over, even if you are a one seat playing an eight seed, like there should be not necessarily like ultimate satisfaction as if you've accomplished the ultimate goal. But I do think, you know, once you've gotten to the sweet sixteen, regardless of expectations, was there's a sign

of relief that you got past that hurdle. Right now you got two more games to see if you can get to a final four. Well, tom Izzo, he's made many final fours. He only has one national championship. And I say that like it's you know, anybody having a national championship is something that they should, you know, be celebrated for. But his came so long ago, and he's been so good since that championship. He just hasn't broke

through to win another one. And I really like tom Izzo because I think what you see is what you get. I think he's done a pretty good job of balancing the New World right, Like he hasn't made a complete identity switch, and he's made the necessary adjustments, but he's still kind of himself like his is this Michigan State team.

One of the reasons why I think they're they're they've got a good chance to make a Final four is because like, this isn't his O kind of team, Like this is a team that I feel like when I watched them play, they've got his DNA.

only to lose. It was right after they lost to Texas Tech when Beard was there, because they beat Duke and Zion and Cam Reddish and those guys, and it looked as say, if okay, if you can beat those guys, you can beat anybody. Well, then they lost to Texas tech, and he was pretty emotional, but he wasn't like mad

at the reporter for asking the question. A lot of coaches would have shown their ass I think had been like you kidd me, like they would have just gone they would have gone full resume on him, like you think I'm you know, basically are you questioning how accomplished I am?

does Zzo have? I'm gonna say he's got like six. Maybe I'm maybe I'm selling him short. Take a guess Austin. I'm gonna look at it, Howny. How many final words you think is oas.

that were good out of nowhere, that was really an outlier. Right, they haven't been like they have been great since, Like McK cronin made a final four after getting the playing game. Like, I don't think mc cronin is gonna be making any more final fours. I mean, it could happen, but anyways, the most impressive thing about Izzoh is that when.

He plays with with Jared Jackson, Yeah, Jared Jackson. Yes, So Jared Jackson was a one and done towards kind of the end where that was like a you know back you know those pre and ile days. And then obviously Zach Randolph was a one and done many years ago in like the early two thousands. But other than that, like Isoud was the guy who did build teams, and those guys who played for him, I felt like they

played there at least three or four years. Right, So if you played for Izzoh for like, you know, the first twenty years of his time, twenty five years of his career at at Michigan State, you went to a final four. Now his drought now from twenty nineteen to

now again it is a drought. But like, I think they got a good chance to get back, and I think iso A lot of people knock him because I he's overrated, only one title, but like he's always close to getting right back here, and I wouldn't be shocked if they're in the final four once again. So I kind of want Michigan State to get one more for Rizzo out of you know, out of my respect for him,

but again he should know better than anybody. Getting to the final four is really difficult, and he's done that plenty of times. But winning at all, especially when you get there against other really good teams, it's not easy. There's no random national champions, folks. There are random final four teams, a lot of them, but aren't there aren't random. Even Yukon is the only random title winner that I could think of. But they're not random because they have

more than anybody in my lifetime. The year was random, like their's season, but like the brand, the program. Collecting that championship in twenty fourteen, like it's still is insane to think about.

no fans in attendance. It's a weird year and I'm glad we at least had a season, but like it wasn't it wasn't normal, and that was that was the only Final four that that Scott Drew's been to.

use Kentucky's actual locker room or not. But It wasn't just a photo taken by a random teammate for the gram or for snapchatting he didn't know would get out. It was taken by like a professional photographer that followed Tennessee to cover their tournament. And I just think, like, that's a really I don't know Zakay Ziggler at all.

That probably doesn't surprise you. But like he's you know, he's mature, he's he's he's a grown man, and I don't really see a whole lot of like antics from him on the court that would make me, you know, in a way, this is kind of harmless, kind of silly, and maybe he's thinking, you know, he's just having fun. He wasn't doing he wasn't thinking that Kentucky would see it, but you know they did, and I doubt that Kentucky needs and he added like motivation, but I mean, very

a very unexpected. I wouldn't even call it a storyline, but it's certainly been a talking point in this matchup for tomorrow because I feel like Kentucky one of the reasons why I think they've got a good chance to win this game. I mean, there's a lot of factors. One they've already beat him twice. Also there to me, it seems like they've got a pretty like there's no

pressure there. In a way you would think, well, they can't lose to if they fall short here in the sweet sixteen, and it's to a team that they already beat twice, Clearly there's proof they can when they should win, and if they don't, man, they're gonna you know, I just I think in a weird way, just like Louisville fans are bummed they lost last week, there's a level of being content because man, you took a big step forward and the future looks bright in year one of

Pat Kelsey, I kind of feel like Kentucky would be able to say the same thing, like, they'll be upset, they'll be emotional. You go online if they lose tomorrow, you'll see people acting like a lunatic, because that's just how it works. But also I think they'll they'll have

a level of reflection quicker than they usually do. That will that will, you know, maybe surprise you because I think they realize even if they lose, it's gonna be hard for them to look at that team and look at what they did getting to the Sweet sixteen and feeling like they, you know, they should have been so much better. I think Pope did a lot with what he had to work with. I don't want to act as if they got a bunch of bums there and

he's playing with a bunch of Rudy walk Ons. But I don't Again, I don't think Kentucky is you know, superior talented compared to you know, some of the teams they beat this year. Our quick break will come back on the other side. Final segment. Wrap it up right here on a Sports Talk seven to ninety.

I mean, I wasn't in danger. But there was a reason why thirties hit me harder than I was anticipating. And I'm sure some of it was in fact, because you know, there is a difference in your life when you're thirty three and when you're twenty three. But now that my levels are where they need to be for somebody my age, I mean, I mean I feel younger now than I did for a good stretch of my early thirties. And I think, more than anything, it's because of me learning what low TI was and realizing that

I can treat it and be better for it. And it's all thanks to the friends that I have over at the Little men Clinic. Check them out online Little Men's Clinic dot com or give them a call. Five oh two four four four four thousand. All right, very little time left here before we get out of here. And We've talked, of course, a lot about the matchups tonight, and I'll just tell you what I'm going to roll with you guys, can you know, fade, you can tail whatever you want to do, do you? But I'm going

Arkansas plus five and a half. I'm going Alabama minus four and a half, Florida minus six and a half. And I am going to take the under one fifty four and a half in the Duke game.

I've I've had success in betting the unders. And it's a weird feeling to like, yeah, give me, give me a segment where combined they score, you know, in between TV timeouts, the teams combined for six points, like, and it's crazy how it just passed in just in just stretches of play. You know. Okay, that's really good for the over or really bad for the over vice versa.

look like as far as viewership. But as I look at these matchups here on the uh on the sports book, on drafting sports book, and it's showing, you know, all eight matchups tonight and tomorrow, I know there's no Cinderella, and I know that you know, there's really not even a I mean, I think when it comes to storylines coming from the first weekend, it was the fact that there wasn't a Cinderella and the Kevin Willard stuff that's

certainly one of them. So therefore, like without there being a lot of other outside, you know, off the court entertaining storylines, it's kind of boring. But man, we should have some really good games, and I'm someone that still chooses to believe that that's important.