Closing Bell Overtime: Looking Ahead to Nvidia Earnings 11/18/25

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AT&T 5G requires a compatible plan and device. Coverage not available everywhere. Learn more at att.com slash 5G network. That bell marks the end of regulation. Southbound ringing the closing bell at the New York Stock Exchange.

Flushing Financial doing the honors at the NASDAQ. And it's another down day for stocks. The Dow. Down about 500 points, now down about 2,200 over its four-day losing streak. S&P 500 also down for the fourth straight day. NASDAQ losing more than a percent. Once again, the big name tech stocks leading the way lower. Amazon and Microsoft getting hit after it downgrades.

Nvidia falling ahead of its earnings tomorrow. More on those names coming up. And despite these losses, most of the S&P sectors, though, are higher today. Communication services, health care and energy among the leaders, and Bitcoin bouncing back today after briefly falling below 90,000. still in the red for 2025, but only slightly. That's after a big rally earlier this year on hopes that President Trump would be the crypto president.

Well, that's a scorecard on Wall Street. Welcome to Closing Bell Overtime. I'm Morgan Brennan, along with John Fort. Over the next hour, we're going to try to get some answers to a very simple question. Will this market sell off continue or is it time? to buy the dip same goes for nvidia ahead of earnings tomorrow that's about 24 hours and 19 minutes From now, the stock's down 14% from the all-time high it hit three weeks ago. So did that move lower the bar enough for a rebound rally?

We're going to talk to the head of a very interesting company, Swiss industrial giant ABB. The company is trying to bring cleaner electricity to Europe and to the US, also focused on industrial automation. Well, let's start with the markets, the big moves we've seen today. Seema Modi is at the New York Stock Exchange for us. Seema?

Hey, John, another day where tech really dominated the tape. NASDAQ down over 1%. Big deals in the world of technology with NVIDIA and Microsoft investing up to $15 billion in AI startup Anthropic. It wasn't enough to lift broader sentiment. Nvidia, Amazon, Meta, all the hyperscalers trading down on those renewed concerns around CapEx and how these deals will be funded. Worth noting, Oracle ending in the green. Analysts at Baird cutting its price target on the stock to $3.15.

but maintaining an outperformed rating as that shareholder meeting just concluded. And Palatir remaining volatile ever since reporting earnings on November 3rd. The stock suffering another down day and breaking below its 50-day moving average. Countdown to Nvidia. Notable weakness in the semiconductor index with competitor AMD falling. Memory player Micron AMD all down between two to four percent in today's trade. John Morgan.

All right, Seema Modi, thank you. Now let's turn to the bond market as President Trump is once again rattling the cage of Fed Chair Jay Powell, saying he has to be, quote, held back from firing Powell. Rick Santelli is in Chicago with the bond market reaction to those comments. And Rick, I think we also... have to take a little trip around the world because Japan action has been particularly notable today as well.

Oh, absolutely. The Japan action has been something to observe, that's for sure. Multi-decade almost high yields on their 10-year sector. Their currency against the European currency is at a 33-year low. not good they have political issues they have fiscal issues and many believe of course that their export economy is going to be teetering a bit in the future they had negative GDP in the third quarter now let's look at our

markets. And yes, everybody is talking about Trump's comments about the Fed and the Fed chief. The only thing is markets paid little attention to it because yields actually moved higher after the 10 o'clock day to look at twos and tens after that. data came out yields moved up even though the entire curve but

30-year bonds have a lower yield than yesterday's close. Do remember, the non-seasonally adjusted durables and factory orders were very strong, and traders were talking about that. If you look at 30-year bonds, which I just mentioned, They're hovering near seven-week high closes.

Why do I bring that up? It's not the benchmark. Because 30-year minus 10-year, known as the knob spread, you see it on that chart. It's basically the widest it's been in two months. Traders love to watch this spread because sometimes when it widens... out, it means longer rates are going to move higher and the curve may steepen. John, back to you. Rick Santelli, thank you.

All the major averages are lower again today, but well off the lows of the session, despite the recent sell-off and concerns over stretch valuation. Our next guest expects the market to rally into year end. Joining us now is 314 Research co-founder Warren Pies. Warren, good to see you. Is it going to take the Fed, though, stepping in here to get the markets back rallying?

Yeah, I think that's good to be with you, John. I think that's our position, basically. If you look at the market and you try and tease out what's happening, the market peaked on the day of the last Fed meeting. Powell kind of hocked it up. We've seen one cut come out of the market between now and 2026, even though, as Rick said, yields have been basically flat longer out the curve. And I think that's really where the indigestion started. I mean, there is sentiment was also stress.

and really had no pullback. Something we noted to our clients is that the S&P 500 had gone 137 trading days without a 3% pullback until yesterday. So, I mean, it's been an incredible move. And this is we have to take some froth out. The Fed did that. Ultimately, we expect the Fed to take their lead from like Chris Waller and his comments yesterday. And I think they will get back on the easing path before the December meeting. But Warren, is that going to be enough to put a floor?

under equities here. We see some of the risk indicators, things like Bitcoin looking shakier, the VIX, I mean, it's still relatively quiet, but getting up in the 24 range, does something in the core economy or in the... numbers or do we even have to wait for Q4 earnings have to sort of ratify that?

Yeah, I mean, I think the NVIDIA call tomorrow is a big deal. We've had a hard time saying that the bottom is in until we see the NVIDIA reaction. And I mean, I think that's what we're looking for is the reaction to tomorrow. If you go back just in this little AI.

era that we've been in since 2023 the market has really taken its cue within the next like say seven trading days of the nvidia report whatever direction uh nvidia moves the market follows and i mean that's not groundbreaking stuff but i think it's worth waiting and seeing what the reaction is because everybody knows they're going to meet the beat

and they're going to have a rosy outlook and everything like that. I think it's really all down to how the market responds. I think the market is set up to maybe there's a little choppiness. I think will be bottoming here in the next week and then rallying into year end as some of the nervousness around AI kind of comes out of the market.

Small caps. Russell 2000 had an about face today and actually ended the day up about six tenths of one percent. If you look under the hood of the S&P, I mean, breath was not. terrible here. It was sort of those high flyers that kind of led to the downside, but quite a few sectors actually finished in the green, too. Is this... Is this rotation, is this trend one that has legs here, even as you do see this consolidation among the highest flyers?

Yeah. So I think that this is that whole K-shaped economy that we've been talking about and everybody's been talking about. And there are really it's showing up in the market. Right. So this is a weird year. There's only been 158 stocks that have outperformed the S&P 500. That's the third fewest on record going back 60 years. And even more interesting than that is that 173 stocks.

have underperformed the s p 500 index by 20 or more so there's more 20 laggards than there are stocks beating the s p 500 so everyone's rooting for days like this to continue where you have a broad market but

I don't think that's going to happen. When you see years like this where there's a big spread, there's a narrow market and an up market, you get a chase for the winners into year end. And so I know there's a lot of nervousness and skittishness around AI in the Sam Altman interview and some of the.

other things but ultimately when when you see things like that that reconstructs a little bit of the wall of worry that we were missing during the summer months and i think ultimately you'll see as much as nobody wants to see it that's a market participant, you're going to see big tech probably lead through year end at least.

I just don't understand the desire when it comes to the Russell 2000 to buy small caps. I mean, I think you see positioning rotations like today, I think was a positioning rotation. But I mean, Russell has such a needle that needs a thread. I mean, it needs persistently lower rates and strong growth. Those things don't really go together. So it's not something I want to own here. OK, I know you do a lot of work on commodities as well.

What is your research showing, whether it's crude oil, whether it's gold, whether it's some of the other big movers we've seen this year? Yeah, I mean, we've been bearish crude, bullish gold through the whole year. And there really isn't much that changes here on that position. I mean, crude oil has.

it's a big it's a pressure relief valve for the market and for the fed so i think crude's down about 20 year to date and that allows the fed going back to their opening comments why would the fed be able to lean on easing here i think because crude oil is still giving them past

That's OPEC supply, maybe some of the things happening in the background of the Trump administration. Gold is, you hear things like Josh Hawley talking about sending out tariff checks to everybody in the working class today, $2,000 tariff checks.

Doing something like that just reinforces this gold bull market. Yeah, we're digesting the big gains that we saw this year of gold. But long term, you have to have a big gold allocation in your portfolio. So bullish gold, not yet. Time to be bullish. Oil is still bearish there. Okay. Warren Pies, great to kick off the hour with you. Thanks for joining us.

In addition to all the big tech worries today, Home Depot was actually the biggest contributor to the Dow's losses. It accounted for about 120 points. For more on Home Depot's results, let's bring in Courtney Reagan. Hi, Court.

Hi, Morgan. Yeah, shares down about 6%. And Home Depot hasn't missed earnings estimates for three quarters in a row since at least 1995, if it's ever happened before. That's as far as our records go back. And while revenue beat expectations, that newly acquired GMS Pro Business made up $900 million of that revenue. Total comparable sales coming in up, but just 0.2% in that largest U.S. segment. Comp sales up just 0.1%. So yes, the fourth straight quarter of growth, albeit...

barely. The home improvement retailer also lowering its guidance for the full year with just one quarter left, which... the executives explained is both a function of the disappointment for this current third or for the third quarter that was just reported and then low expectations for the current fourth quarter i spoke briefly with chief financial officer richard mcphail he said there were really two big issues that pressured the result

He said the absence of storms, think hurricanes, puts pressure on categories like roofing, plywood and generators. Comps felt meaningfully in October and that'll continue to pressure this current Q4. Secondly, McPhail said we had anticipated the demand. would begin to accelerate gradually in the back half of the year as interest rates and mortgage rates eased. But what we saw was that ongoing consumer uncertainty and continued pressure in housing are disproportionately impacting.

home improvement demand so in this case morgan Home Depot is really pointing to external factors. And oftentimes you will hear analysts talk about how Home Depot is one of the best operators in retail. So we will see what happens and what goes forward here. Obviously we knew. that there were no big storms in the quarter. And so we knew that that potentially could be an issue, but investors still disappointed. Johnny Morgan. All right, Courtney, thank you.

Well, coming up, much more on the recent tech wreck, including why analysts are concerned about what Microsoft is doing to address the worries. And while tech has tumbled so far in November, health care has grabbed the ball and it has run. With it, it's up 6%. It's the best sector so far this month. Up next, more on one name that is leading the way higher. Overtime is back in two.

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Welcome back to Overtime. Merck helping lift the health care sector, also the Dow's best performer today. The company reporting positive results in a phase two trial of a new heart drug. It will now move on to a phase three study. Merck also raising its quarterly dividend by four cents per share. and Deutsche Bank increasing its price target on the stock to $110 per share. But maintaining its hold rating, nonetheless, you can see shares of Merck finishing today up nearly 4%. Yeah.

And while Merck lifts the Dow, Microsoft weighing on it today, falling on a downgrade, but also continued concerns about how all this AI spending is going to translate into sales. The company is holding its Ignite event today in San Francisco, and our Steve Kovac.

is there. Steve, what's the latest? Hey there, John. Yeah, I'm here at the Chase Arena. This is where the Warriors play exactly. And Judson Althoff, he's the commercial CEO at Microsoft. He gave a huge keynote down there. And of course, the big news.

of the day was that anthropic deal so just a quick recap of what's going on here anthropic is committing to spend 30 billion dollars in compute between microsoft and nvidia and in turn you have microsoft saying they're going to invest up to five billion dollars in anthropic while nvidia will uh invest up to 10 billion dollars

And look, we can talk about the circular economy and all that kind of stuff like that. But I did talk to Althoff in an interview during Power Lunch and kind of asked him, you know, what's going on here and the big theme he told me of this event is Microsoft is becoming more and more

platform agnostic about which models it partners with. We're seeing increasing evidence that it is sort of divorcing itself from OpenAI after that deal was reached two weeks ago with OpenAI. Now you see them signing this.

new one with Anthropic. And by the way, Anthropic technology isn't just going to be running on the Azure cloud servers, John. It's also going to be powering some of these products that were announced today. And it's not just Anthropic, Gemini, that new version of Gemini that was announced.

is going to be integrated in some Microsoft products as well. So what we're really seeing here is Microsoft kind of spreading the risk around. We talk about OpenAI so often as the center of all these deals, but Microsoft is kind of expanding and casting a... wider net than some of these others in order to kind of mitigate some of the risk.

That results in this anthropic deal and so much more, John. Well, see, to be fair, it's not a divorce exactly. It's more of an open marriage. It's more they got the Adirondack chairs in the front yard here. And there's a bunch of that going around in tech. You know that Amazon AWS just really launched Project Rainier, which is with Anthropic, but Anthropic is also with Microsoft. So there's a lot of circulation here. Microsoft also announced a bunch of new AI.

features, so they're trying to use AI to power their own software growth at the same time, right? That's exactly right. And look, when we talk about CapEx and where's the justification for all this spending is coming from. We kind of have a clear picture of how that works on the cloud side. I just detailed that. But it's less clear on the consumer-facing side. That means co-pilot. That means Agent 365, which is one of the new products announced here today where it's sort of like a dashboard.

customers can use to control all their AI agents, sort of like HR for your AI agent, so to speak. But we don't know how much those products are gonna cost, if it's additive to the co-pilot subscription, and things like that, and Microsoft isn't really detailing that.

It might go on a contract-by-contract basis. But they need to really step on the gas here, John, in order to show there's real revenue growth opportunity, not just from the cloud. We know that Azure is growing like crazy. It's a $100 billion-plus annual business.

When are we going to start seeing that with Copilot and these products today? It's still very early, but there's a lot of competition going on as well, John, from OpenAI, from others. The same companies Microsoft is partnering with, to your point, they're also competing with. against in the enterprise. All right, Steve Kovac, thank you. With shares of Microsoft down about 2.5% today. Well, three weeks ago, at a big event in Washington, Jensen Huang vowed

Wow, I should say the markets and Nvidia stock rallied to an all-time high above $212 a share. Since then, the stock has tumbled nearly 15%. Has that set the stage for a post-earnings rebound? We've got much more on Nvidia. and the markets overall. That is coming up right here on Overtime. You know what a girl's best friend is? Not diamonds. Her lawyers.

From executive producer Ryan Murphy comes a fiery new legal drama. It's our own boutique. Women representing women. You can't afford to miss. Make it rigged. Showtime, ladies. Stand up straight. And breeze into that room like a storm no one saw coming. Hulu Original Series. All's Fair. Now streaming on Hulu and Hulu on Disney+. For bonus subscribers, terms apply.

And now, a next level moment from AT&T Business. Say you've sent out a gigantic shipment of pillows and they need to be there in time for International Sleep Day. You've got AT&T 5G, so you're fully confident. But the vendor isn't responding, and International Sleep Day is tomorrow. Luckily, AT&T 5G lets you deal with any issues with ease, so the pillows will get delivered and everyone can sleep soundly, especially you.

AT&T 5G requires a compatible plan and device. Coverage not available everywhere. Learn more at att.com slash 5G network. Welcome back. Shares of Freeport McMoran, one of the biggest gainers in the S&P 500 today, finishing up about two and a half percent. The company announcing plans to restart operations at a mine in Indonesia following a deadly accident there back in September. It's one of the biggest copper mines in the world. Freeport also.

It's copper, gold and other commodity guidance. But that news helping Freeport Mac Morant shares, but having a negative effect on the price of copper. John, also worth noting, this is a company that saw those shares sell off pretty aggressively. So a bounce back here. Yeah, indeed.

Well, I think the cliche is true in this case. All eyes actually are on NVIDIA as the growth icon prepares to report earnings here on Overtime tomorrow. Poster child of the AI boom now faces another big expectations test. Our senior markets commentator Mike Santoli is here with a closer look. Mike?

Yeah, John, all eyes either are or should be on NVIDIA. Here's a cute way of thinking about how the stock has behaved. This is from Ned Davis Research comparing the average daily percent move over the prior 100 days of NVIDIA. That's this lower chart. Cisco in the years around the peak of the internet.

And if you consider that you had this kind of surge in volatility and then a kind of quiet period, and then it lifts off this quiet period, this is right now with NVIDIA. And this was, as you see here, mid-1998. for Cisco, which continued to get very jumpy and volatile and kind of emotional trading around it, even though it was like almost two years until the stock price itself peaked. So it's not to say that volatility up always means stock.

price down. In fact, when you get very ebullient markets, it's quite the opposite. We actually hadn't seen that until this very recent period where you have stocks up, volatility up. Something to keep in mind as we gauge the reaction, although I will say last quarter after NVIDIA's

earnings. I think that the move the next day was less than one percent. So that was that quiet period right there on valuation. Look, it's been compressed because the earnings estimates keep going up. We know Nvidia shares are well off their highs, almost 15 percent off the high from. late October. And right now, you know, sort of interestingly or maybe coincidentally, now in perfect parity with Microsoft's

forward PE as well. So this is the period where the stock ran right ahead of the earnings ramping in a dramatic fashion for NVIDIA. And now earnings have caught up. Not very much of a premium. It's the high 20s P.E. to the overall market, which is like 22 at this point. So we'll see if this is about the market figuring out the growth is going to slow off a lower base, which, of course, it will naturally. Or maybe it's.

sort of a better risk reward being set up for that report tomorrow, John. Well, Mike, back on that first chart, I almost overlooked the sort of difference in amplitude. You know, on the top, Cisco kind of dipped down in this period near where it had before, but NVIDIA is way below. What to make of that? It's interesting. I don't know that there's something specific except maybe the overall market was in a super quiet phase.

coming into 1997. So I don't know if there's anything that we can make of that. I mean, both of them were, if not the largest stock in the S&P, Cisco was close to it during that entire period of time. You probably didn't have. quite as much kind of all on or all off index trading ETF type things like that. And he also did not have the overall market.

quite as concentrated as it is right now. So I'm not sure what to make of it, except, as they say, the earnings have ramped so much that everyone's on board with the idea that the fundamental picture is good. It's just a matter of how much the stock sort of gets ahead of it. at times. Okay. Mike Santoli, thank you. We'll see a little bit later this hour. Well, it's time now for a CNBC News update with Bertha Coombs. Hi, Bertha.

Hey, Morgan. Republican Senate leader John Thune says his chamber will try to work quickly to pass the bill forcing the release of the Justice Department's files on Jeffrey Epstein. The House voted 427 to 1 to pass. the bill earlier this afternoon. The bill requires the attorney general to release in a searchable and downloadable format all unclassified records, documents, and investigative materials related to the late sex offender.

The head of Airlines for America, a trade group representing major U.S. airlines, will call on Congress to pay air traffic controllers during future government shutdowns. Comes after the historic 43-day shutdown disrupted travel. plans for millions of travelers because of controller absences. And Zoox announcing today it will begin allowing select San Francisco users to access its driverless vehicles there. That pits the Amazon-owned robo-taxi service against Alphabet's Waymo for the first time.

in the same market. Zoox is different than other RoboTaxis as it doesn't have a steering wheel in. the vehicle i'll tell you those robo taxis sometimes drive better on those san francisco hills than some of the drivers i've had the people sounds like you're speaking from personal experience bertha coombs thank you coming up

The challenges of powering the AI boom, providing the electricity needed, doing it with renewable sources. We're going to talk to the head of Swiss industrial giant ABB about that and more right after this break. Welcome back to Overtime. Another down day for stocks. The Dow and S&P falling for the fourth straight day. NASDAQ losing more than a percent. Stocks did try to stage a midday comeback but faded into the close. One stock making a big move in overtime.

Semi launching a $6 billion share buyback program. You see it's up almost 4%. Constellation Energy also higher by about two and a half. As the Trump administration says, it'll give the company a $1 billion. federal loan to restart the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant.

Well, the broader market pullback in November has been driven by investor anxieties about spending by companies on AI and whether the return on investment will ultimately be worth it. Now, couple that with inflation concerns, evolving trade dynamics, geopolitics, companies have a lot to deal with. Few companies have better insight.

insight into these underlying trends, though, than global industrial giant ABB, which has businesses in electrification, motion, and automation. So joining us now exclusively. is ABB CEO Morten Virad as the company wraps its Capital Markets Day. Morten, it's great to have you back on the show. Welcome. Thank you.

So I do want to start with this this big question because it is dominating so much of what we're seeing and hearing across the market and across companies and industries. And that is whether there's frothiness in all of this spending that we're seeing in AI, whether the return on investment is.

ultimately going to be worth it and whether all of this build out into AI infrastructure is going to be overdone. ABB is clearly well positioned to capture some of that spending. What are you seeing on the front lines right now? Now we see very strong activity in the data center segment.

AI build-out of new capacity. It's happening all over the world, of course, especially here in the United States. So we don't see any slowdown at the moment. It's more getting ready for what's to come in the next two, three years. after that we're talking about new technology there we are also helping companies like nvidia with those new architecture all these massive data centers that being planned out so we

We don't see any slowdown, but there are massive numbers and really big numbers we're talking about. So I guess that's the uncertainty that is reflecting also in today's discussion. Yeah. And whether it's electrification, whether it's the data center opportunity, whether it's some of the other areas of industrial automation that you're focused on, what are you seeing in geographies, in different end markets across the world right now and how reflective?

is the growth picture in those markets of this AI arms race. What we see is a massive trend towards electrification and automation overall. electricity as energy source is growing more than double the pace of any other energy source. And that doesn't matter if we're talking about buildings, industries or on transportation. So that kind of the future is clearly electric. And that goes also across the board in the Americas, in Europe and also in Asia.

These are the long-term trends. So therefore, we as a company, we are very well positioned in this market. And therefore, also we're coming up when we had our Capital Market Day here today in New Berlin, in Wisconsin. We're also talking about strong market, but also ABB as a strong company doing well over the last years. But the best is yet to come for us because we are very confident about the market, but also our own position. Morten, particularly in electrification.

How exposed is ABB to a potential downshift, not pause, but downshift in just velocity of data center demand with everything that could happen in the global economy? Yeah, well, data center is an important part for us. It's the fastest growing market, but we also have to recognize it is, I would say, only 7% of the overall business for ABB. So I love the data center market because it's really high growth, but it's not the only one.

all markets are really going electric these days that means that we are able to grow strong and when we talk about power generation the whole utility we need stronger grids all over the world the grid the power grid is getting outdated and unreliable unfortunately too many places in the world that's a great opportunity of us for abb can help with technologies there and that is the opportunity that we have in front of us and we want to help that

whole industrialization trend that we see that is really driven by electrification. So that is where ABB can be a major helper to make that happen. Yeah. And of course, today you issued updated guidance. You put more detail around the restructuring of the portfolio into three specific areas. You're also selling your robotics unit to SoftBank. So what does that unlock?

It gives us as ABB a very focused portfolio now with three what we call business areas of ABB with electrification or motion and automation. Those three units fits very well together. So it's a focused... and a streamlined portfolio that gives that long-term growth ambition that we have as a company with uh five to seven percent growth over the cycle which is more of a maybe a 10-year period so we are

very confident confident about the future growth but also updated over profitability targets today giving and increasing those from the 16 to 19 that we had in the past now to 18 to 22 percent of operational EB Day for the whole ABB group. So I believe that we are in a strong position. And as I said, the best is yet to come from us. Okay. Morten Virad of ABB, thanks for joining us. Thank you.

Well, up next, a top technician deciphers the charts to show us if tech is showing any signs of a rebound. Plus, Nvidia will release its latest earnings right here on Overtime tomorrow. A top analyst tells us how to trade the stock ahead of those results. It's coming up a little bit later here on overtime.

Welcome back to Overtime. Check out shares of Cloudflare well off the lows of the day, but closing down almost 3% after a widespread Internet outage that impacted X, Spotify, ChatGPT, and more. Cloudflare says it fixed the issue a little before 10 a.m. Eastern, and it was not caused by a cyberattack.

Well, let's get back to the markets. The major averages extended their losses today, but will the selling continue or could we see a bottom soon? Let's see what the charts are telling us. Joining us now is Jessica Inskip. She is the director of investor research at Stockbrokers.com. Jessica, it's great to have you on the show. And let's start right there because there's been a lot of chatter about the technicals, especially after the S&P closed below its 50-day moving average.

What are you seeing? Yeah, absolutely. And great to see you, Morgan. I like to take a step back and look at a weekly view of the chart. If we look at the S&P 500, we're holding a very major defense line, which is the 13 weekly moving average. Now, I'm calling this trading cycle...

bullish at risk. I like to look at the 13, 26 and 40 weekly moving averages over longer timeframes because it is part of one quarter worth of prices, two quarters worth of prices and three quarters worth of prices. And what is happening right now, that first.

fence line is the 13 weekly moving average around 66 55 which represents one quarter worth of prices which we have not erased that is acting as support and that is extremely important now there is one signal that I did see on the chart which is MACD that signaled a bearish crossover which caused more momentum off to this sell-off but if we do not see a weekly close above that 13 weekly moving average so at the end of the week at 66.55 then I would expect another sell-off to a

around 6435 to that next defense line, which is the 26 weekly moving average. Got it. 6655. I'm writing this down. How does equal weight S&P compared to cap weighted? So this is really important to pay attention to. We've broken that defense line with the equal weight, and we've actually broken something that I've been watching for quite some time. I like to call this the ceiling of resistance, and it's around 76-12.

And that's a cause for concern for me. Now, the trading cycle for this one is more in a trading range. I expect us to be range bound really until we break above the 7612. But the reason why this is. of the uttermost importance it's the ceiling that we created when tariffs and uncertainty started coming into the conversation if we're marrying the technicals and the fundamentals and what's really driving the market it's really erasing this

broadening that we have been seeing. And if we do not see that overcome, that just means that the rally would be rather narrow and we wouldn't see more broadening. So something to watch, exercise caution. But again, these are still the first defense line. So I'm not signaling that we're bearish, we're bullish at risk and in a trading range when we're looking at the equal weight.

Jessica, how much attention are you paying to the Bitcoin charts as a reflection of risk appetite? And what does that say, if anything, about the broader market? I think it's extremely important. Bitcoin really falls in line what happens with high beta assets. And when we see that sell off and we had the deleveraging event, which I think really shook out a lot of the market. But I think it's important to pay attention to Bitcoin, gold and the.

dollar. I've noticed this trend when the dollar started weakening. We saw an uptick in Bitcoin and we saw an uptick in gold, but now we've seen some stabilization within the dollar and that has also caused a sell-off in gold. and, of course, more high beta within Bitcoin. So I see it as a risk-off measure, but it's also important to look at the correlation in relative charts as well. Interesting stuff. Jessica Inskit, thank you.

Well, NVIDIA shares have gotten crushed since hitting a record high last month. Up next, we're going to discuss whether tomorrow's earnings could be a buy the dip moment. Plus, we've got a mystery chart for you. We're going to reveal it. Little hint here. keeps going and going. Over time, we'll be right back.

Welcome back to Overtime. Shares of Energizer Holdings have their tongue on the battery today and there's no buzz. The bunny missing Wall Street's fourth quarter earnings estimates and forecasting weaker than expected first quarter guidance citing soft.

consumer demand and tariff costs. Well, NVIDIA shares are down sharply since hitting an all-time high in late October. Did the company and Jensen Huang already share all the good stuff? Christina Parts Nevelis is joining us now with more on NVIDIA.

as we go into the print tomorrow. Christina? I'm smiling because I was trying to think of a pun for John because he just had so many in that. But let's talk about the setup because it does feel a little bit like a repeat of last quarter with some recent shakiness just in investors' confidence in the AI semi-trade. We know that. We've been talking about the bubble fears.

And that's also why you're seeing Nvidia shares down about 10% month to date. Shares have pretty much barely budged since the August earnings report underperforming Broadcom, AMD, Intel, the Sox ETF you can see on your screen there. So the fire... just might be missing tomorrow, and that's because at the end of October, NVIDIA's CEO revealed at a conference $500 billion in cumulative chip orders that would stretch through the end of next year. The stock then hit about $212 the next day.

an all-time high, but has been down about 10% since that date. And that was really just very specific for NVIDIA to do. You know, breaking from the typical one quarter at a time guidance, instead providing a forecast through all of next year, which you know, maybe takes away some of the surprise right there. And there's another Goldilocks dynamic also at play with earnings. If Nvidia's beat is too strong, it could amplify concerns that AI spending has become excessive. But if it's just a modest

beat, let's just say, hitting $2 billion, which is still impressive, investors might read that as growth normalizing faster than expected. So Wednesday's report really becomes about validating what NVIDIA's CEO already said than actually revealing anything brand new.

If, though, NVIDIA can give investors more clarity on the longer-term backlog, similar to what we saw from competitors like AMD at its Analyst Day here at the NASDAQ, or Broadcom talking about multi-year visibility, that could really shift sentiment. John? Okay, Christina, thank you. Well, those Nvidia shares are down 14% since Jensen Huang's big event in Washington late last month.

Did that pullback create room for a post earnings rally? Joining us now is Jordan Klein, tech, media and telecom specialist at Mizuho. Jordan, you know, Oracle popped and dropped after September. NVIDIA is very different. from Oracle though, so what could Jensen say to breathe some life back into the hopes and pump up the valuation here? Well, he could say a lot. I mean, obviously, he's everyone's going to kind of wait with bated breath in terms of how positive he sounds. And I think he'll.

be very positive in terms of demand exceeding supply, their product roadmap being on track. And I do think what would be great is they typically don't guide beyond the next 90 days and trying to measure the success. and growth of NVIDIA on a 90 day or three month guide is nearly impossible. So if he was to give more specifics and insights into order visibility and their backlog beyond the next quarter.

to kind of help comfort investors like he did at the DC event a couple weeks ago about the 20 gigawatts of orders in the backlog. I think that would help. people feel even more confident about the linearity of growth. It looks like the multiples on Microsoft and NVIDIA aren't that far off of each other right now. I know you don't cover Microsoft, but what do you think investors should take away from that?

Well, I think NVIDIA is one of the most compelling tech stocks you can buy right now because if you think about the multiple, it's actually below. below Microsoft, I think, in the low to mid 20s, if you look out on what investors I speak to expect the company to earn. And that's for much higher growth.

than you would get at a microsoft now i like microsoft a lot too i think it's one of the best position large cap tech companies out there but it's not growing at 40 to 50 percent off a massive base like Nvidia nor does Microsoft generate you know upwards of 80 to 90 billion in free cash flow a year. So again I'm not saying these are mispriced but I definitely think Nvidia. pound for pound looks way too cheap for the growth and the opportunity that it presents.

Jordan, I'm going to play devil's advocate because it seems like it's a foregone conclusion among investors in the street coming into this print that NVIDIA is going to beat and raise. The question, though, is how much and is it enough for investors to get excited and for the stock to break out of this range here? What happens if they don't?

Well, they'll beat and raise. The question is by how much and I think that is the issue here is that the street has been so conditioned based on the last year and a half.

of this similar cadence of how much they beat and how much they guide up that it is removed a lot of the surprise factor so it's getting harder for the company to surprise by enough meaning guide beyond just the typical let's say 2 billion of upside they typically guide to so the stock really isn't moving a lot around the earnings and that's why I tell smart investors don't worry so much about the guide think longer term

But that's why I think a lot of people are selling or trimming their position into tomorrow's earnings because they're fearful that they'll give the normal beat. It won't sustain a breakout move to the upside. And then all hell breaks loose, meaning the A.I. trade starts to unwind faster and people don't want to be exposed to that. I think that's short term view, but that's just kind of where we are right now. All right. Jordan Klein, thank you.

The shares of NVIDIA under pressure today ahead of those earnings tomorrow, to his point. We will be all over those results tomorrow at 4.20 p.m. Eastern. That's when we're expecting them right here on Overtime. Up next, Mike Santoli is back. He's going to break down the moves in junk bonds and treasuries.

And what that could mean for this recent market turmoil. And as we head to break, CNBC spoke to small businesses across the country about the impact of tariffs, including the effect they're having on a sweet spot in the consumer space.

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I'm in a really good industry in this market when there's a lot of uncertainty in the world, where there's a lot of fluctuation. People turn to comfort. Chocolate is comforting. It's delicious. Everyone loves it. So I have that working in my favor, owning it. a chocolate business. We just grow year upon year. But what's really propelled that growth is my sort of out of the chocolate box or out of the box collaborations.

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Welcome back to Overtime. The market's moving fast today. Tech is a downside leader. Consumer cyclicals are holding up for now, and junk bonds are trying to get traction. So what message are these moves sending to investors? Mike Santoli is back to break it all down. Mike.

Yeah, Morgan, so what's been accomplished so far with this pullback we've seen rolling through the markets? Here's the Nasdaq 100. This, of course, has been kind of the locomotive of the three-year bull market. It has faltered to below its 50-day moving average. What I find more interesting is how far back...

in time that takes us at the lows today. We were back where we were at September 18th. That was when the day after the Fed meeting, when they resumed rate cuts and we zoomed higher from there. So we're checking back on those assumptions that we were holding at those levels. You see.

The 200-day moving average, that's another 6-plus percent below. That's more structural, hardcore trend support if we get there. I'd be surprised if we V-bottom right off the 50-day average. But so far, not a ton of damage done. Take a look at equal weight at consumer discretionary. It's been a problem child for the market for a little while here because it has been sending a little bit of a worrisome message about the consumer pretty much.

Flat on a on a one year basis now, but it did actually outperform today. So maybe it's trying to find some traction after some downside leadership. Now, finally, take a look at credit. This is the high yield. corporate debt ETF relative to a comparable treasury ETF. So this is high yield. It has faltered. Obviously, this is in price terms, but it's not really gotten to distress levels. That's not a very widespread between the performance.

of these two things yet, but it's definitely on the watch list of things that could erode and send a little bit more of a worrisome macro message, Mark. So what I think I hear you saying is that so far right now we're seeing a bit of an orderly pullback. I am curious. CNN's fear and greed index is approaching April levels. VIX three-month curve is in backwardation. I know we get VIXperation tomorrow. Are these other things to watch?

They are. And so things are falling into place in terms of what you like to see in terms of the makings of some kind of a snapback or contrarian signal for at least a tactical rally. You've also said the S&P 500. Finally register kind of an oversold reading today, not a super extreme one. But in other words, you know, the pendulum has swung in that direction far enough that you have a plausible base to say that maybe the risk reward.

has improved. Obviously, extremes can always grow more extreme within reason. So that's why we watch it every day. All right. Mike Santoli, thank you. And, of course, we get NVIDIA tomorrow, but we also get FOMC minutes tomorrow. That's going to be one to watch, given some of the more hawkish-leaning Fed speak we've been getting in recent days as well and what that's meant for the markets. But I mean NVIDIA. It's kind of – that's –

It's on overtime and that's ballgame. Question is, is it Cisco in 2000? Or is it Apple in 2018? I guess we're going to have to tune in. We're going to be here tomorrow to find out. And it's sort of kicking off what Adam Christofoli calls the big three events. Because you've got NVIDIA, you've got Walmart, and you've got the September jobs report for what that's worth.

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