Closing Bell Overtime: 11/25/25

What does it mean to live a rich life? It means brave first leaps, tearful goodbyes, and everything in between. With over 100 years experience navigating the ups and downs of the market, and of life. Your Edward Jones financial advisor will be there to help you move ahead with confidence. Because with all you've done to find your rich, we'll do all we can to help you keep enjoying it. Edward Jones, member SIPC.

Twas the night before Christmas, when all through the barn, Harry and David's Royal Riviera pairs were wrapped, heading out from the farm. The children were nestled snug in their beds, while towers of moose-munched popcorn danced in their heads. When what on our door stand? should magically appear. Harry and David delivering holiday cheer. Harry and David exclaimed as they drove out of sight. Happy holidays to all. And to all a good bite.

Find magical gifts for everyone on your list at harryanddavid.com. More green on the screen. Welcome back to Overtime. The housing trade seeing a nice pop today on increased hopes for a December rate cut. That is the end of regulation. The Epilepsy Foundation ringing the closing bell at the New York Stock Exchange. United Worldwide doing the honors.

at the Nasdaq. We've got another bullish day for stocks as the latest in data inflation further cemented bets that the Fed will cut interest rates next month. The Russell 2000 was the standout with investors betting that a cut would be beneficial for the small cap names. Healthcare, discretionary. Those are the leaders today for the S&P. Energy and utilities lagged. All the three names in the S&P healthcare sector closed higher today. The Dow Transports, that was a bright spot.

Closing higher today for the third straight day as well. Outperforming the larger averages. Nearly all 20 components were higher of more than 1%. The commodity complex seeing moves today. Oil falling more than 1%. Ukraine peace. Deal talks continue here. And copper and gold both higher in trade today as well. Yields moved lower and reports that Kevin Hassett is now the front runner for the Fed chair. And you had the 10-year Treasury yield briefly dipping below 4% on that report.

And that is the scorecard on Wall Street, but winners stay late. Welcome to Closing Bell Overtime. I'm John Ford alongside Morgan Brennan. Ahead, we are awaiting earnings from Dell, HP, Zscaler, Autodesk. As tech stays in focus and we will hear from Urban Outfitters. But that stock up 22% this year. Plus, markets finally got economic data today. They showed a mixed picture. Inflation was lower, but so was consumer confidence and retail sales. You could call it all dovish.

We're going to speak with Treasury Secretary Counselor Joe Livornia. And we'll tackle the shakeup in the AI trade as positive sentiment shifts from NVIDIA to Alphabet. Should your portfolio change with that shift? Well, for more on today's markets...

Let's get to Christina Partzinevelis at the NASDAQ. Christina. Oh, Morgan, the Nasdaq just logged its third straight day of gains as investors really bet the Fed will cut rates next month. Delayed economic data that you guys talked about gave us some clues on consumer spending and inflation. And small caps are loving it. The Russell 2000 is actually leading all the major.

major indices just over the past week, climbing 2% today, but higher over the past week. And speaking of consumers, retailers are proving they're just not done yet. Abercrombie & Fitch shot up 37.5%. I had to just double check after raising its profit forecast thanks to strong Hollister sales, lifting the whole sector with names like Gap, Carter's, Victoria's Secret, all closing higher. Carter's 4% higher as an example, but the real winner is Cole.

Up 42% today. It's best day ever on solid earnings and news that the interim CEO is getting the job permanently. Now on the flip side. Big Tech had a little bit of a rougher day. NVIDIA and AMD both fell after reports that Meta will tap Google's AI chips instead, raising fresh concerns about competition in the AI race. Still, Google's parent company Alphabet keeps inching closer and closer to that.

$4 trillion market cap. You can see Google closing 1.5% higher today, which brings us to the broader AI trade, Oracle. The poster child for AI infrastructure spending concerns closed about 1.6% lower in what is now its...

It's a worst month since 2001, a sign that investors are starting to ask harder questions about who's actually making money in this AI boom. John? Christina, thank you. Now to the bond market where the 10-year was tap dancing on 4% again today. Rick Santelli is in Chicago. Rick.

It definitely was dancing there, but let's take a better look at the data. You talk about a Rorschach inflation report. Many are calling for the PPI, definitely cooler than expected, but I'm sorry, it wasn't. Two out of the three monthly numbers were sequentially higher. And if you look at the year-over-year data, we had two out of three of those sequentially higher and all very close to 3%.

We're not making any progress. The headline month over month number was up three tenths. Now, granted, that was as expected. but it's four tenths higher than our last look. And when it comes to the data on consumer confidence from the conference board, it was a real washout. All three were less than expected. All three were sequentially lower than our last look. but yet maybe the Hassett news.

Regarding the Fed might have put a boost to the buy-in that pushed those yields down a bit. But then again, is it really going to, if he gets picked, is he going to make yields move lower? I doubt it. Richard Fisher had some good answers.

a 12-hour chart and you can see briefly we're under four percent we're hovering there let's look at a year to date look at the right side now that's a year to date we're down about 57 basis points from where we close and the right side you see in october those closes under 4%. Let's zoom in on those. We've had six closes under 4%. One of those on October 22nd, the low yield close of the year at 3.95 and change.

But we really have a hard time staying below 4%, and that really is the point. But here's something very interesting. Fed fund futures, when they move up in price, they're putting in more easing. Let's look at Fed fund futures against the S&P futures since last Friday. They've started to get... on top of each other and correlate. And the higher Fed funds goes, building in the propensity of an ease, it's up at 80% now, the more the stock market likes it. Surprise, John.

Back to you. Lots of surprises in the market. Rick, thanks. Now let's get into the tech trade with our next guest right here on set. Dan Eyes from Wedbush here to tell us how to play the AI revolution, why he says we're not in a bubble. Dan. On AI, this market has been ridiculously flighty. I'm old enough to remember when OpenAI was going to kill Google search.

And when the narrative was Apple's dead money because it missed AI with Apple intelligence and that Oracle is the fourth hyperscope. That was a recent one. You got to do your homework, not get caught up in each week's hype. So with that in mind, what are your picks?

I mean, look, that's why, I mean, we spend our time in Asia and around the world, right? Because what the demand looks like. And we talk about our top 10 picks here. You know, I think on the hyperscalers, to me, Microsoft continues to be the one that's just table pounder here.

relative to what I view as sort of the enterprise that's right in their backyard, everything we see in Azure. Look, 20% of the deals that we're seeing from Microsoft to Amazon to Google have been accelerated over the last few weeks, despite what we're seeing here. Palantir to me on the use case side continues to be front and center and then that's when I get the valuation worries but that is really I think right at the epicenter of what we're seeing.

And it continues. This is just the start. Hang tight. Dell earnings are out. The stock is initially popping a bit here in overtime. Christina Parks and Nebulas has the numbers. Christina. John Dell delivered a mixed report. Earnings came in strong at $2.59 per share, beating expectations, but revenues of $27.01 billion came in slightly light. Gross margins, though, 20.7%, beating estimates despite these higher...

Emory prices, many concerns about that going into earnings. The story, though, was really about the split between their two main businesses, the Infrastructure Solutions Group, that's servers, networking, storage, that beat estimates. But the Client Solutions Group, which is PCs and laptops,

Tops fell a little bit short. Dell raised guidance across the board. They're now expecting full year revenue of $111.2 to $112.2 billion. That's well above Wall Street estimates. And then the same thing for the earnings per share guidance. It also came in higher at $9.92. And lastly, for AI exposure, the CFO saying in the release that they're raising their AI shipment guidance to roughly $25 billion, up from the previous $20 billion target.

I'm also seeing just on the headlines that Dell is going to be working with IRN, which is they operate data centers in Canada. So perhaps there's not really a market reaction in that stock. But the two will be working together to build data centers in Canada.

guys all right christina thank you dan how much is dell swung around by just how much of an allocation michael dell gets from Jensen Huang at NVIDIA because AI is so much the story of why the stock has gone up. If you own the stock, that's what you care about. I mean, you're not focused on, you're focused on the AI play relative to the read-throughs for NVIDIA. And it speaks to what we're talking about.

The second, third, fourth derivatives are just starting to play out across the AI revolution. I think those that call it a bubble, you know, it's easy to call it a bubble because you don't see in the spreadsheet. I believe this is a tech bull market. It goes on another two years. Look at Alphabet as another example.

New York City cab drive was bearish in alphabet to start the year. Now look, because the reality is AI is a talent for them. We're seeing that, you know, even with Broadcom and, you know, everything was on the chip side. I mean, yesterday the president signed an executive order for...

Genesis Mission, this is the big AI project that is going to harken back to the post-World War II years of Manhattan project here. Is there a government backstop here? Is that one more reason why you should be buying into this bull market for AI? Yeah, and look. I mean, as we spend so much time in D.C., the reality is for the first time in 30 years, U.S. is ahead of China when it comes to tech.

And when it comes to what we see from big tech, I think there is a government backside. Because the reality is that it's led by godfather of AI, Jensen, NVIDIA. It's led by Microsoft. It's led from what you see with OpenAI. And look, the worries about the too big to fail and some of the concerns. We are still, like we talked about, we're top of the third, maybe one out.

in terms of this AI game. And I think we have two more years left in this tech bull market. And that really continues to be the core here from all of our checks. I just want to go back to Alphabet as it does trade at a record high right now. And that is... How much of a game changer is Gemini 3 and how quickly is the technology changing in general?

In terms of winners and losers, like how to gauge that, how to think about that as an investor. Yeah, because back was against the wall for really for a few years. Now you're seeing a major change there. From Gemini and ultimately I think Apple, that's really going to walk down the aisle with them from a Gemini partnership. That's going to be their AI piece. And then you look at what's happened on chips. You look at the sum of the parts. Look, I could argue Alphabet. You have another 80.

100 hours upside relative to the AI piece that's not factored in yet into the story. Okay. Dan Ives. Great to be here. Thank you. Good to have you here on set.

All right, well, Urban Outfitters earnings are out, and Courtney Reagan has those numbers for us. Hi, Courtney. Hi, we're going to add this to another good quarter for retail. Shares popping here, 15, almost 16 percent. Urban Outfitters earnings coming in stronger than expected at $1.28 compared to... to $1.20. Revenue is also stronger than expected, $1.53 billion. Consensus was $1.47 billion.

Third quarter, comparable sales up 8%, well better than the 5% expected. Urban Outfitters, so just that brand, the namesake brand, comps up 12.5%. That's three times as good as what the street was expecting. Anthropology comps up 7.6 percent. Free people comps up 4.1 percent. Free people slightly disappointing based on what the street had been expecting, but still quite good when you're...

looking at retail overall. Comments from the CEO basically just saying trends observed during the quarter remain consistent, no guidance given here. The conference call does start at 5 o'clock where we'll get a little bit more color. Back over to you. Yeah, another big stock reaction to another earnings report from a retailer today that's been positive. So shares up 16% right now. Courtney Reagan, thank you.

Up next, Joe LaVornia, Counselor to Treasury Secretary Besant, on whether the latest reading on inflation, new concerns about the consumer. will prompt the Fed to cut rates again next month and his take on the economy. And later, a top market strategist on the sector that could benefit most from more rate cuts in the new year. Be right back. The heaviest metal credit card of all time.

Rumored to be one of only 18 in existence. Plated with the very same tungsten that forged the International Space Station. And wielded at business dinners like a samurai sword. It's a classic corporate power move. But the real power move? Having end-to-end visibility on your most critical shipments. FedEx. The new power move.

And now, a next-level moment from AT&T Business. Say you've sent out a gigantic shipment of pillows, and they need to be there in time for International Sleep Day. You've got AT&T 5G, so you're fully confident. But... The vendor isn't responding, and International Sleep Day is tomorrow. Luckily, AT&T 5G lets you deal with any issues with ease, so the pillows will get delivered and everyone can sleep soundly, especially you.

AT&T 5G requires a compatible plan and device. Coverage not available everywhere. Learn more at att.com slash 5G network. Ever spend $200 on a fragrance only to realize you hate it? Micro Perfumes fixes that. Now you can try luxury scents without the luxury price. Pick from real designer fragrances like Gucci, Chanel and Versace. It's the real deal. Authentic scents starting at just a few bucks. They come in sleek travel sprays, ship fast and there's no subscription required.

Why gamble on a full bottle? Go to microperfumes.com slash podcast for up to 60% off. That's microperfumes.com slash podcast for up to 60% off. Welcome back to Overtime. Investors eating up shares of Brinker International today. Citi upgrading the owner of Chili's Restaurants. That chain from neutral to buy, hiking the price target from 144 to 176. That implies 25% upside from yesterday's close.

The analysts there citing decreasing beef costs following the removal of tariffs in Brazil, as well as strong traffic growth from younger diners. All right, well, up next, Mike Santoli digs into a double dose of data. that could provide some much needed stress relief for consumers, what it all means for retail stocks. And later, Fast Money's Tim Seymour on whether you should be betting on a rebound for Oracle and Palantir, two stocks that went from market leaders to...

Market laggards this month. We got more after this break. Welcome back to Overtime. HP earnings are out. Seema Modi has the number. Seema. John, for the fourth quarter, HP reporting earnings and revenue that beat revenue tied to personal systems and printing came in higher than consensus. But the first quarter guide is weaker than expected. The company also announcing a headcount reduction of four to six thousand jobs in total.

cost savings of a billion dollars by the end of fiscal 2028 tied to the broader AI adoption. CEO Enrique Larez telling CNBC that this will help accelerate the company's product development. He adds that his team is taking a prudent approach to its guide. And on the topic of rising memory prices, HP is implementing aggressive actions, he says, like finding lower cost suppliers and will also look to raise price of their own products as well. Shares down about 6.5 percent. Morgan Scott.

All right, Sima Modi, thank you. This morning, we finally got the PPI report for September. It showed wholesale prices rising less than expected. It's a sign that inflation may be cooling, but concerns are still brewing over the consumer. Confidence hitting its lowest level.

since April on elevated concerns about the jobs picture. We also got a softer retail sales number this morning. Where does that leave the Fed? Where does it leave the economy? Joining us now, Joe LaVornia. He is counselor to the Treasury Secretary. And Joe, it's great to have you back on the show. Welcome. Thank you.

Thank you. So let's start right there, because the takeaway here from the data this morning is that it was dovish, but that's not necessarily a good thing if you start digging through some of the labor data we got. Where do we stand on the economy? The economy is in good shape. I mean, the Atlanta Fed, the last check I had seen, growth was at 4.2, and it was based on good consumer spending and CapEx. Retail sales were a little bit softer. It was after a 6 tenths gain previously.

The weekly chain store numbers through November, which is much timelier. Morgan are tracking about six. percent, so that's pretty good. On the PPI, you mentioned there's cooling. We're 2.7 year over year. The final year of the prior administration, we were up around 3.5 percent. Commodity prices are down near a 52-week low. We're seeing energy prices moderate, inflation expectations are moving down.

All those things tell us that the inflation outlook is very good. The Fed should be responding both to the inflation outlook as well as the fact that rates by most members' admission are still above neutral.

Yeah, and certainly there's a big focus, increasing focus, and we've heard that from a number of Fed officials just in the last couple of days with a more dovish tilt in some of their commentary, that there are concerns about the labor market. So what do those cracks look like? How concerned is the administration about that? and how to think about how that factors into these rate cuts, because why the Fed cuts is going to matter as much as the Fed cutting.

Well, inflation is a lagging indicator. I gave a whole bunch of reasons why inflation is not a problem. And the yield curve is very flat relative to the funds rate. So that suggests the market wants easing. The labor market started weakening very dramatically in 2023. We noticed after the fact there were two million more downward revisions in jobs than what had been reported at the time. So as much as.

The prior folks might say we had a good labor market. We didn't. Things were slowing. I think it's optimism around the president's policies, especially on the capital expensing and what will be soon finalized, the full expensing of structures. It's really an investment boom, and that's kept...

GDP at 4%. Labor market, there is some risk. There is some weakness there. And that's why you need lower rates so that next year we get a broad-based boom that is across the board with even higher real wage gains, which we were having through the...

summer before we lost the the shutdown that's going to hurt growth in the current quarter and then of course a lot of the data now unfortunately is stale but if you're the fed based on what many of these governors have said they're supposed to be cutting rates yeah speaking of the fed i'm going to take a little bit of a turn here because The Treasury Secretary was on CNBC this morning. He said we could have a new Fed chair named by Christmas.

Flash forward to a couple hours ago, we've got reports that Kevin Hassett is the front runner. Markets really like that. The 10-year Treasury yield dipped below 4% on that report as well. I want to get your response.

Well, the secretary said this morning he had five great candidates. So, you know, the market might be rallying on the fact we're just getting closer to a decision being made. But the secretary will review everything and they will give the president his recommendation of the three finals. or the final finalists, and then the president will make the decision. So we'll see what happens. They're all great candidates. I can't say anything more.

Joe, given that tariffs haven't had the negative overall impact that some feared and overall consumer spending is holding up, what's your take on why consumer confidence is so shaken and why, in particular, college grads are having such trouble finding jobs? Yeah, I mean, I'm not sure why the confidence numbers

are as weak as they are. They've been weak for a while. The good news, John, is you're not seeing it at the small business level. You're seeing still very high readings on small businesses, and those are the ones that create the jobs. What's happening, I think, perhaps at the...

The newly graduate level, kids are graduating from school, is that, you know, the job market, the trend had been slowing. It's been slowing for a while, and there's concerns about AI. And also, I think, depends, John, in part, what some of these students are majoring.

I mean, if you're in the areas in hot demand, then, you know, you find employment. But there's no question that things need to get better on the labor side, which is why we're working with the one big, beautiful bill, the CapEx expensing, which has led to basically we've had about 15 percent. first half.

capital spending gains which is the best since i believe 2011 and in the past capex always leads to hiring and it's not just ai it's business equipment it's transportation equipment so if our forecast is right and we're very confident in 26, the labor market is going to turn for everybody, especially the new graduates.

The smallest businesses, some of the alternative data that we've been looking at here on Overtime, including from Intuit, suggests that they are actually not growing their workforce as much, maybe even cutting a bit, despite the fact that they're doing okay on the top line. Makes me wonder if...

This is the sort of thing that rate cuts can really cure if there are things like AI concerns mixed in in there. Are lower rates going to convince people to hire who are holding back for some of those reasons? Look, on the interest rates, there's a lot of sectors, old school manufacturing, housing, construction, broadly speaking. Those interest-sensitive sectors are important. Money's fungible, and spending in one area translates to money elsewhere.

And when you have policy that's tight by the Fed's own admission, you want to make sure, John, we can calibrate rates so that it gives the economy its best chance to excel. Also, those low rates, which will reduce the cost of capital, help improve equity valuations through a better discount.

So everything is kind of integrated. And it's the argument that many Fed governors, including the Fed chair himself, have made. Lower rates will help, but also the deregulation the administration is putting forward. There's been a lot that's done on the financial services side. That will add money and credit to the economy, get the economy growing next year in a broad-based

fashion. So every bit will help. And the GDP numbers look good. We need now the labor market to improve. And I think, you know, we're going to get it. We will see an improvement next year. All right. Joe LaVornia, great to have you on. Thank you for joining us.

Happy Thanksgiving. Thank you. Happy Thanksgiving. Now let's turn to the consumer. Could lower energy costs and falling yields spell relief at the pump and a cheaper financing backdrop? And could that cushion potentially stress out shoppers? Senior markets commentator Mike Santoli is with us to give us a pulse check. Mike.

Yeah, John, so there are some offsets. So look at the trajectory here of the two-year note yield alongside WTI crude oil, obviously moving the same direction. It's not unusual. Different scales, of course, but you see the shape of these charts is very similar in today. You did see both take another leg lower to your yields on kind of rebuilding those expectations for Fed rate cuts as well as, you know, oil.

It's been acting like an oversupplied market already. And then the notion that maybe there'll be some kind of a peace agreement in Ukraine that also fed into it. So, yes, offsets. It's not necessarily the same as, you know, more jobs and more more incomes. definitely helps take a look here too at the equal weighted.

consumer discretionary sector. It was actually a big outperformer today, along with industrials and things like regional banks. But on a one-year basis, you see it's basically gone sideways. Remember, we had the big...

post-election rally in November of last year. It was actually right around this time that it flattened out a little bit. So you're going up against that starting point. But it does show you that we've had a bit of a reset lower in expectations for how strong the consumer was going to be. to be. And now we're popping back up, trying to do a little bit better than Treadwater, as the chart says here. The offset idea is nice, but...

On the flip side of that, is it a bit weird that the consumer's confidence is so shaky with oil and some other things being where they are? To a degree, yes. It seems as if the confidence measure, first of all, the survey week for the Consumer Confidence Report was during the shutdown. I do think that the news flow in general in terms of a low hire.

type of environment is taking its toll, as is just the elevated price level, right? We haven't been able to tell consumers that inflation has calmed down for like three years. OK, and, you know, through the Fed tightening cycle and now since then. And it just seems as if.

You're in a societal bad mood. It's partly for that reason. And I think that's largely what you're seeing as well as, again, you know, it just does look as if job opportunities have tightened up a little bit. We'll have a little more on that later, Morgan. OK, sounds good, because we will see you later in the show. Mike Santoli, thank you. Well, it's time now for a CBC News update with Mackenzie Segalos. Hey, Mack.

Hey, Morgan. President Trump says he will send his special envoy, Steve Witkoff, to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow. Meanwhile, Army Secretary Dan Driscoll will meet with Ukrainian officials as the U.S. works to hammer out a peace plan to end the war. Ukraine. The president also said the proposal has been fine-tuned and there are only a few remaining points of disagreement.

Washington, D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser announced today that she will not seek a fourth term after more than a decade in office. In a video announcement, Bowser said it was time to pass the baton on to the next set of leaders. Her third term was marked by the president's surge of law and... enforcement in the nation's capital.

And Rush Hour 4 is reportedly in the works at Paramount, thanks to the influence of President Trump. Semaphore first reported that the president requested the studio revive the Buddy Cop franchise. According to Variety, the new installment will see the return of Star Wars. is Jackie Chan and Chris Tucker. Back to you guys. All right, Mac, thank you. Up next, a pair of top strategists.

And whether the bulls are ready to run wild through the end of the year. Plus, Dell's analyst call just getting started. We're going to bring you any highlights as we count down to the other calls that kick off at the top of the hour. Be right back. It's the Smucker's Uncrustables podcast with your host, Uncrustables. Okay, today's guest is rough around the edges. Please welcome Crust. Thanks for having me.

Today's topic, he's round with soft pillowy bread. Hey. Filled with delicious PB&J. Are you talking about yourself? And you can take him anywhere. Why'd you invite him? And we are out of time. Are you really cutting me off? Uncrustables are the best part of the sandwich. Sorry, crust. We all take good care of the things that matter. Our homes, our pets, our cars. Are you doing the same for your brain?

Acting early to protect brain health may help reduce the risk of dementia from conditions like Alzheimer's disease. Studies have found that up to 45% of dementia cases may be prevented or delayed by managing risk factors you can change. Make brain health a priority. Ask your doctor about your risk factors and for a cognitive assessment. Learn more at brainhealthmatters.com.

And now, a next level moment from AT&T Business. Say you've sent out a gigantic shipment of pillows and they need to be there in time for International Sleep Day. You've got AT&T 5G, so you're fully confident. But the vendor isn't responding, and International Sleep Day is tomorrow. Luckily, AT&T 5G lets you deal with any issues with ease, so the pillows will get delivered and everyone can sleep soundly, especially you.

AT&T 5G requires a compatible plan and device. Coverage not available everywhere. Learn more at att.com slash 5G network. Welcome back to Overtime. Stocks ending the day. On a high note, the Dow up more than 650 points, making a three-day win streak as hopes grow for a Fed rate cut. The small caps, Russell 2000, the real standout today up 2%.

Urban Outfitters, a big mover in overtime. The stock soaring about 11.5% right now as EPS and revenue beat. Third quarter comp sales were up 8% versus estimates of 5.2. HP moving lower. right now. You can see it there, down almost 6%. The company beating on EPS and revenue, but saying it will increase investments in some areas to integrate AI. into its product portfolio hp also announcing it'll cut 6 000 employees in a push to adopt ai company-wide now zscaler more than a let's see

More than a 7% drop, not quite 8%, despite EPS and revenue beating here. The company giving second quarter revenue guidance above estimates, though. And NetApp, a storage company, moving higher as its earnings... deliver. EPS and revenue beating. It's up 4%. The company giving third quarter revenue guidance above estimates. Well, the market's ending higher today, as you just heard from John. As investors jump in on the dovish turn in Fed policy.

reignited momentum and some of the big cap tech names. Will the stabilization continue into December? Well, let's bring in JP Morgan Asset Management Portfolio Manager Phil Campreale and Wells Fargo Investment Institute Senior Global Market Strategist Scott Wren. Gentlemen, great to have you here.

Phil, you're on set. Welcome. I'm going to start this conversation with you because one of the things that stood out to me in your notes is this idea that 2025 has been a return to normal for the markets. What does that mean? Yeah, it means that global diversification doesn't own just own seven stocks. U.S. And that fixed income in the portfolio could actually work. The dollar doesn't go up every year, which obviously impacts taking risk abroad. But most importantly,

We've gotten back to normal on the rate side. I stare at the 10-year note every day. I think it's one of the most important indicators. And as you know, last year, the Fed eased the federal funds rate, technically, but tightened policy. because long-end rates went up, which mean more to the U.S. consumer than the federal funds rate will ever. So we took the opportunity last week to add to risk in the sell-off because of that fundamental story, Morgan, that we think remains intact.

digit earnings growth in 2026. We got a little pullback in multiples. We went from like 23 to 22 times. So we got a little a little pullback there. But most importantly, it's this interest rate environment that's cooperating. Great volatility. at its lowest levels since the Fed started their hiking campaign back in March of 2022. And the Goldman Sachs financial conditions indicator also showing.

easy conditions for the U.S. consumer. So I think it's kind of a green light to take risk on both sides of the balance line. Okay. I want to get Scott into this conversation, but first, 4% on the 10-year? Yep.

Does that feel healthy? Does that feel normal? Is that where it should be? It feels totally normal. And as history has proven, that the 10-year note should be something that looks like nominal growth, real GDP growth plus inflation. If you have 2% GDP growth next year, you have 2% to 2.5% inflation. next year, that puts the 10-year note exactly where it should be.

Scott, how do you feel about where the markets are now? There's been a lot of swinging around with this AI trade. Can you believe that the markets are trading on fundamentals here and not priced? OK, not for perfection, because it was there a few weeks. ago but a little too close to it.

Yeah, John, I don't think the market's priced for perfection, but certainly hoping for a lot of good things to happen, which, you know, let's face it, this AI spend, it's going to keep going. The companies that have been doing very well, making a lot of money, seeing a lot. of cash flow. That's going to continue to happen as we go through 2026. And really for us, and you and I have talked before about this, I mean, we're leaning towards stocks. We'd like to lean more towards stocks.

You know, if you would have asked me three months ago if we would have had a 10 percent pullback by now, I would have said, you know, absolutely. But we just haven't. So, you know, we took advantage of the pullback back in April, and that's a long time ago now. We continue to not sit on our hands and basically it looks to us, we cut back to a neutral.

on the technology sector we had been overweight that for a long time we did the same thing in communication services so we've trimmed there but if you think about it You know, those two sectors together are pretty close to 50 percent of the value of the S&P 500, even when you're when you're even weight. So that's a load right there. And we've been moving funds into, you know, industrials, utilities, financials. Those are really the sectors.

that we've been buying. I want to ask you about that. Can you really diversify in this market into utilities and industrials when so many of them are starting to get influenced by the AI narrative as well? Do you have to go elsewhere to truly diversify? diversify out of the AI impacts.

I think you do, because, you know, and really, John, to be honest with you, I mean, we're moving into those sectors because of their AI impact. And so, you know, it's just kind of a cheaper way to get some exposure. There's a little bit of diversification there. So I think you need to still lean toward technology, obviously, AI, obviously, but you need to get a little bit of a different angle on that. And that's what we're really trying to do. I don't think you want to diversify too far.

away from the companies that are really growing and have the potential for cash flow and earnings. Because I don't think it's going to be a whole heck of a lot of difference over the next year than it has been the last year. And Phil, I did want to get one to you on risk, since you talked about that.

Is Bitcoin a decent proxy for the risk trade that you have some confidence in? Yeah, I think there's certainly a retail component to sentiment and Bitcoin. I also think gold is part of that as well. But ultimately, it's the most... heavily held stocks in the world, which are those MAG-7 names that I think are going to be the ultimate sentiment indicators. And again, if the Federal Reserve at this December meeting, again, whether they go or not go, we'll see with the labor report that comes up.

But it's more can they control rate volatility into next year that keeps... You know, some sort of semblance for mortgage rates. You know, gas prices are, you know, hovering right at $3 a gallon. All that stuff, I think, means a lot. And, John, you asked a lot about confidence. I think that's an inconsistency here with the story. It's confidence is so low, but it also proves that. us that the mark is not euphoric.

You know, and other times when University of Michigan confidence was higher, we saw euphoric environments. But the fact that confidence is down here, the fact that there are seven and a half trillion dollars in money market funds every time I'm on with you guys, I talk about that. That proves to me that the market is an overextended. and not hoping just for good news. I think the fundamental story still wins. Okay. Scott, 2026.

What are you expecting for the markets here? And what are you expecting not only for stocks, but for fixed income as we are having this conversation about stabilization and rates? Well, Morgan, we've got a 7,500 target out there on the S&P 500, which I think is very doable in the... rate environment and in the earnings growth environment that we're expecting. As far as fixed income goes, you know, for me now, you know, if inflation was 2 to 2.5 percent next year, I could.

I could live with yields that were lower than 4%. That's not where we think it is. It's going to be. We've got a 2.8% number out there. I think if we're not... correct there. It might be just a little bit lower. So for me, for yields, let's say the 10-year yield, to move down meaningfully from where it is, I mean, something would have to be wrong with the economy, in our opinion. And so we're looking at a 2.4% growth rate next year.

Could it be a little bit higher than that? It might be. But 2.4%, I would argue, in a $27 trillion economy is pretty darn good. But if we're wrong and growth is a lot slower, could we see a 3.25% yield or something like that? on the 10-year, maybe we could, but that's definitely not what we're looking for. I think the 10-year yield, if we drifted up to 4.5, 4.75, somewhere...

like that, that wouldn't surprise me at all, especially in a better growth environment. All right. We'll keep watching it, of course. Scott, Phil, thanks to you both. Happy Thanksgiving, guys. Happy Thanksgiving. You too. Up next, much more on all the overtime earnings actions. We count down to HP's call with analysts. Plus, Best Money's Tim Seymour gives us the trade on this mystery stock that's been heating up lately after underperforming for most of the year.

Can you guess what it is? Stay with us. Welcome back to Overtime. The housing trade's seeing a nice pop today on increased hopes for a December rate cut. The sector ETF, the ITB, rallying more than 4.5% today in the regular trading session. Leaders include D.R. Horton, Lennar, Beezer, and Lazy... The move also lifting shares of Home Depot, which led the Dow today, posting its best day since April. And that, of course, after a sell-off in that stock on earnings last week, John. Indeed.

Well, up next, Fast Money's Tim Seymour on whether now's the time to jump back into some of this year's tech leaders that have had a rough November.

As we had to break, CNBC spoke to small businesses across the country about the impact of tariffs, including how they forced some entrepreneurs to raise cash through GoFundMe. My product is a line of products made out of silicone that stop babies from dropping and throwing all of their toys on the ground. I started out going to expos, and then I was on Shark Tank, so that got a lot of national exposure. And then I was able to get into Walmart and Target.

I literally had to cash in my retirement this week to stay afloat. And my brother who has been with me for four years is having to go back to his old job. And because of the 145% tariffs being in place for so long, we ran out of stock and didn't have any revenue coming in for six weeks. We had a GoFundMe to help raise the money to cover the cost of tariffs so that we could get product in. But now I don't know.

if we're going to be able to get product in after that. The cost of baby items across the board has gone up 16% just since March. Price of cribs is up $50. Car seats are $40. Strollers are $100. So with new parents who don't necessarily need our products, Having to pay so much more for the essentials that they don't have the budget anymore to buy these nice to have things. I was in the military for over 10 years. I deployed multiple times.

I came home. I got my education. I started my family and I started my own business. But it's honestly, I'm starting to question what even is the American dream at this point? Because I feel like I've done everything right.

And now everything feels so wrong. Welcome back to Overtime. Oracle is down nearly 25% in November after a massive jump the last two months. The stock saw a big rally on strong cloud growth results back in September.

Credit concerns began to weigh on sentiment, now one of the worst performing names in the S&P 500 this month. It was actually the projections of growth that got the stock moving. Let's bring in Seymour, asset management founder and chief investment officer at Fast Money Trader, Tim Seymour. Tim, good to see you. Hey John, great to be here. Oracle's up like 3x in three years but down 33% in two months and close to flat over 12 months. What do you do with it?

Yeah, I have it down 40% from that September 10th announcement. And it's the open AI concentration risk meets the battleground for the AI debt story. It would be easy to pile on and say it's time to sell it further here. But I have to say somewhere around these levels, I mean, you're talking about even before they get to some of the growth they talked about from 27 onward with some of the recent announcements, you're talking about.

21 times 26 EBIT, which means it's probably in line with its historical. I don't love the change in the margin profile. I don't love the uncertainty. I also think that the froth that was where we were 40 percent higher is largely. out of this stock. So I want to shift gears with you, Tim. Palantir, because this is another high-flying name. It's been selling off in November. It's down 18%.

Companies still up a solid 100% plus for the year, though, so let's put that in context. Forward PE still a whopping 178. What do you do from here? I think this is one that continues to meander lower, certainly in a tape that's up and down as we've been, although we can make that call. We'll certainly talk about that tape on Fast Money. I think Palantir is a case of where the enterprise...

side of it was 100% growth. They had no growth in Europe. It's heavily reliant on the U.S. government, as we know. I'm just not sure you can have the kind of a record year we had next year. I think the market has told you over the last three months, even with names like Meta, that they are concerned about valuations. And I think there's more uncertainty here than there are for other high multiple.

I'm going to leave this one alone, Morgan. Okay. Now, Tim, on the flip side, lots of Apple doubters at the beginning of the year, but the momentum is picking up. Apple's got a record high. today still worried about Apple intelligence or does it look like they have a chance to wow people next year? I think Apple intelligence is something that gives me reason to want to buy the stock, meaning I don't think Apple intelligence is in the stock.

And I think the story here around, OK, maybe not a lot of product innovation, CEO changes kind of say that sounds like the new guy is going to be a little more focused on on products and whatever the next iPhone is. But until there's another iPhone, there's an iPhone now.

that I think is how people will consume AI. And I think that DOJ case gave both obviously Google, but also Apple a green light. I think the story here is one of a company that has at times been misunderstood. And yet if you've been a medium. investor not even a long term we know how well that's gone

Even since 2022, over the last three years, you've outperformed the S&P by staying in Apple. You've outperformed it by almost 25 percent on a three year basis during what's been one of the greatest three year runs for the stock market. So I'm long Apple. I actually think AI is your. friend, and it's not in the price. Okay. Well, I know we're talking a lot about the AI trade and even the rotation under the hood in the AI trade, but, you know, equal weight S&P.

Strong advance today. And the small caps, Russell 2000 finishing up more than 2%. Does this have legs? Well, I'll leave my disparagement for small caps for another show. But I do think that this is a case where rotation continues to look interesting. Look at the breakout in health care. Look at where retail has gone. Look at the sense that the market is looking for that equal weighted exposure.

a time when I think you're getting some follow through from the broader call it economy. Industrials have led all year. Health care was underperforming. I think it makes a lot of sense to stay in this trade. And actually, I would lean even further into it. All right, Tim. Thank you.

See you in just a few minutes here on CNBC. Also, don't miss T.D. Cowan's senior retail analyst, Oliver Chen, on Fast Money as well. Getting into all of today's retail action, what to expect ahead of a big Black Friday. And there was a lot of retail action today. Well, up next, Mike Santoli breaking down an unusually bullish view on stocks and whether that could be a contrarian indicator for this market. Stay with us.

Welcome back to Overtime. Let's get you set up for tomorrow's trade today. Deere is the only big name on the earnings calendar, and on the economic front, we'll get the September durable goods report and weekly jobless claims. Confidence data sending mixed signals. Consumers seem bullish on stocks, but less so on the job market. What's behind the disconnect and what could it mean for the markets? Mike Santoli is back. He's going to break it down for us. Hi, Mike.

Yeah, Morgan, the core of the consumer confidence report today from the conference board was certainly downbeat. Just the overall confidence levels, expectations of consumers, and also the job market kind of hovered at these somewhat softer levels. This is the so-called labor.

market differential within the report. It basically the number of people who say jobs are plentiful, subtracting the number of people say jobs are hard to get. It leaves us above zero. So still net positive, but well down from where we were. early part of this year and into last year and not too far from levels that have coincided with recessions in the past, although we're coming from a different direction here. And it does correlate pretty well with the direction of the unemployment rate.

of the consumer confidence numbers don't really feed that well into. broader consumption trends. But this is something to keep an eye on. And obviously, one of the reasons the market has been a little bit anxious about the likelihood of the Fed doing some more of those so-called insurance rate cuts. Now, take a look at within the Consumer Confidence Report.

also ask, do you think the stock market will be higher in the next 12 months? And what's interesting about this is this consumer sample is not necessarily made up of very active investors. So when they seem to have a prevailing opinion about the direction of stock. It's sometimes mean the words gotten out about the market and maybe it's a slight or kind of, you know, general contrarian indicator. That kind of was the case here. That was late last year. We had a very rough.

first quarter. You could also look back to, you know, end of 1999 as well. So it's just one thing to keep in mind that the strength recently of the stock market has not gone unnoticed by, you know, the broader public. Although I have to say that one. did not exactly serve as a reliable contrarian signal because that was probably right after the 2016 election, which gave way to a very strong 2017 before we did get 2018 turbulence taking things down just a little bit.

Yeah, it's super fascinating. Kind of takes me back to what Joe LaVornia was talking about, the consumer confidence numbers earlier and maybe perhaps the impact. And we don't fully know that yet around government shutdown and what that's done to some of this data as well. So perhaps time will tell. want to get your thoughts though given the data picture we had today and given the fact that the market seems pretty uh

hell bent, if you will, on this notion that the Fed is now going to cut again next month. We talked about Russell 2000 with Tim Seymour, but the Dow transports everything but Uber higher today. Is that just a reflection of this rate cut possibility? Is it a reflection of economic strength going to 2026? I think they executed the sort of rate cut playbook a fair bit. You did see the cyclical sectors outside of tech do very well. And of course, they had been lagging to a fair degree.

We're also within this window. There's a pretty plausible consensus building among economists that you're at least in the first quarter going to get some tailwind, some accelerants. You're going to get heavier tax refunds. That's gone from unnoticed to everybody kind of banking.

on it. But I think we're within a close enough window to that period when it feels as if you can maybe do some things with cyclicals. In terms of small cap Brussels 2000, I still think there's plenty to be proven there. We're just rising to levels that were first seen in November of 2021. Okay, Mike Santoli.

Thank you. And of course, we'll get some more consumer data with Black Friday. Unprecedented number of Americans expected to hit stores, but are they going to spend? That'll be the key question. Gotten really used to disconnect between sentiment and the numbers. We'll see if that continues. Yeah, meantime, all the major averages finishing today higher. Again, that does it for us here at overtime.

A Sapphire Reserve story from Ella Langley. I kind of say my first concert ever was for cows. I would climb up to the top of the barn and just perform. Now I still do that. Listening to album music, which I get through my Sapphire Reserve card. And when Moo can...

I'm very close to boo. It toughens a girl up. Sapphire Reserve now comes with Apple Music. Chase Sapphire Reserve. Now even more rewarding. See more rewards at chase.com slash reserve it. Cards issued by JPMorgan Chase Bank and a member FDIC. Subject to credit approval. Terms apply. Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc. registered in the US and other countries.