Will the move towards sustainable aviation fuel take flight?

recent Singapore Air Show. CN A's Roland Lim led our coverage and he joins us now, Roland. Welcome to the climate conversations. Thanks for having me, Julie. All right. So Roland, the theme of sustainability was at the core of this event, talk to us about the sentiment around sustainability at the air Show. And to what extent did you think the industry players were really feeling

the pressure? Yes, feeling the pressure sustainability was in Singapore announcing a green fuel jet mandate that was actually of importance in terms of protecting the environment. Because at the end of the day, though, the vibe that I was getting was that the industry still remains divided over how to achieve net carbon zero emissions by 2050. The industry says yes, net 0 2050 but they are actually targeting 2030 in terms of their aircraft running on

a 100% sustainable aviation fuel. And then you have the airline bosses, the green fuel producers and the manufacturers contradicting each other and pointing fingers over the thorniest issue which is who is responsible for the slow take up of staff or sustainable aviation fuel. Willie Walsh, he is

Director general of Iata International Air Transport Association. He said that the only way to achieve net zero was really with the widespread usage of s and that demand isn't an issue because every drop of staff that is being produced is used by the airlines. The companies that produce tell a different story. Su H who is VP of Asia pack fuels at Exxon Mobil said that staff demand was very low and that was discouraging producers from producing more.

And then you have the environmental groups. They say that the blame game overs uptake is really exemplifying the industry, setting arbitrary targets with actually no agreed upon road map on their transport and environment. That's a Brussels based NGO is actually calling for regulators to take control and to put strict mandates into place for self production and for use.

So that's what Singapore is doing. And remember you hear that often bandied around figure which is air travel contributes 2 to 3% of total carbon dioxide emissions globally. However, that really is a well rehearsed figure because yes, the key is 3%. But that number is constantly expanding because it doesn't take into account economies and the percentage

growth of air travel that's compounded annually. So really it is imperative to decarbonize over the next 26 years or so headed towards 2050 going net zero for any industry. It's an ambitious target, right? And you were talking about the pressure that all these industry players are feeling and different voices that you've heard. But I'm curious to find out some examples of specific sustainability goals or strategies that some of the players are implementing from a business aviation standpoint.

The industry segment is increasingly becoming targets of environmental activism. One private jet maker I spoke to Bombardier says that they take sustainability very seriously because the current trend right now it really is to blame business jets or private jets for the carbon dioxide emissions out there. Celebrities like Taylor Swift, she's in Singapore. I know she has gotten a lot of flag for her use of

private jets. So Nilesh Paay who is regional VP for Asia Pacific and China, he is of course pushing for staff usage and recycling as much as possible. This is what he had to say.

And we are also innovating doing a lot of research in terms of our Eco jet, which you can look up, which basically tries to do a blended wing technology to minimize the carbon emissions.

tell us what is it exactly? Well, sustainable aviation fuel s really, it just is a type fuel, it powers commercial jets with all the properties of traditional jet fuel or kerosene but with a smaller carbon footprint because if done right, studies show that s can reduce carbon emissions by up to 80% compared to a traditional fossil fuel based jet fuel. For example, a Boeing 737 max currently flies on a 50 50 million of traditional jet fuel and s but the industry really

is working towards 100% staff usage in the future. It's a big game changer. Is it? Yes, there are huge advantages. One is that, for example, staff can be blended with traditional jet fuel and it can also be used with existing planes. You don't have to retrofit any planes and the infrastructure of airports remain the same. But the key difference really is that instead of being made from petroleum sa is made from renewable sources, which is why it leads to net carbon emissions over the

entire life cycle of that fuel. That's why s a currently costs 3 to 5 times more than traditional jet fuel. And not all staff are created equal because that's firstly pure biofuels. So that's where you grow something crops, sugarcane, palm oil, and you make fuel out of that. And then that's the waste based fuels, which is from sustainable biomass. So your agricultural waste, even your recycling cooking oil, for example,

that also can be turned into S A right? And you've had a chance to talk to industry players that have already adopted or have plans to scale up the purchase of sa what insights have you gathered from them? Yes, I spoke to Finnish Energy Giant Nest. They are the biggest producer s in the world and heavily investing to push global staff production capacity to around 2.2 million tons annually. Currently only produces less than half of that 1.2 million tons last year and they make

it from renewable waste and biomass. Sami Yahi Hainan, who is the VP of Renewable Aviation Asia Pacific at Nest Day. He told me that getting sufficient or certainty of demand for staff is really critical in order to unlock the investments to scale up production of the capacity for sustainable aviation fuel. And remember that chicken and egg situation, I mentioned earlier airline saying that they're using every drop of it and then producers saying

that they're not producing enough. And then the energy supply is also saying that demand isn't enough to ramp up production. Well, getting off the ground really is crucial as semi hein and of Nestle told me earlier, have a listen, it is the right pathway. Certainly it's not only pathway. I think the first thing to highlight is that aviation is a so called hard to obey sector. We will need all solutions available to get to the

goal of net zero flying by 2050. So more fuel efficient aircraft better air traffic management, maybe even electric or hydrogen powered planes need to play a role. But the fact remains that a large share of aircraft will likely remain dependent on liquid fuels. And hence the role of sustainable aviation fuels is so large for aviation's climate goals. A estimates that 65% of the required emission reductions for the net zero goal need to come from the use of.

So not all regulatory support really is important to create that required demand certainty for s but there are other aspects as well the greener planes and investing in new tech just as important as you earlier mentioned. Currently, global supply of staff barely meets what 1% of the aviation industry, a total fuel requirement. So what is holding it back from wider quicker adoption? What are the biggest dumpling blocks here? Well, stepping up staff

really is a complex and multifaceted endeavor. It requires a lot of things considered efforts by government industry, stakeholders, as well as the research community and the government and the regulatory bodies in respective economies really need to provide incentives and subsidies and tax breaks in order to encourage staff production. So that's one thing that hasn't been done aggressively yet by the government. And according to the trade body, Iata S really needs to

up production in order to achieve net zero. We are talking something like 13 million tons needed annually by 2030 towards that 2050 target. And as I've said earlier, Nest Day, the biggest producer of staff is only producing just a little bit more than 2 million currently. So 30,000,002 million, it's a big gap and also it requires mandates that airlines themselves use a certain percentage of staff in their

fuel mix then currently. So that will actually also guarantee a market for separate producers out there. But I have to say at the same time, all this is making environmentalists nervous. I remember you're using renewable

waste which is fine, recycled biomass, that's fine. But growing crops for the purposes of producing biofuels for that means that you need large parcels of land and there are concerns, of course that the change of land use and deforestation will also worsen as demand of staff catches up worldwide and it all comes down to money too. Right. It has to make business sense. And you did mention that right now sa is what three times more expensive than the current jet

fuel that you're using. So if large scale, let's say production kicks in, could the prices come down significantly? Well, the main thing about traditional jet fuel is that it doesn't price in the externalities and the environmental emissions is a cause by digging the oil or fuel out of the ground. Well, that is in fact when you talk about jet fuel prices. So you're not really comparing apple and apples, but at the same time, staff won't actually reach parity

with jet fuel anytime soon. It will come down with more investments, economies of scale. But what industry players tell me is that regulatory framework is really important in terms of supporting the ramp up of production in order to get investments to increase capacity. And of course, enabling the airlines in a competitive market to use it. What I says is that sustainable fuel is going to stay more expensive than traditional jet fuel even with large

scale production. Simply because the low availability of sustainable feedstock, as well as the continuing development of other new production technologies and with more players in the marketplace as the staff production matures, the price is expected to come down. Although we have yet to see how significant that's something that the industry players themselves couldn't give me an answer to fuel already is one of

the biggest costs for our airlines and the industry. So I guess the decision to get consumers to chip in didn't really come as a huge surprise from 2026 travelers will be paying more for flights leaving Singapore to support this greener jet fuel. Why is this significant and why is Singapore moving so fast on this? Right? I think that the news really did make

headlines, not just Singapore headlines but international headlines. And it was very positively received by all the aviation players because it sets an early example for other countries to actually mandates usage. Remember back in November on staff usage in the region, the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines or a a they set a target for all its members, the Asian Pacific Airlines to adopt five percents usage by 2030. And that was a signal of demand for fuel producers

out there. But that was a target. What the Singapore authorities have actually done is to actually crystallize it into a green fuel levy. So as you say, air travelers now have to bear part of Singapore's green aviation transition. All departing flights from Singapore will have to use 1% s by 2026 rises up to 5% by 2030. They have given examples based on 2026 prices, let's say, for example, price of economy ticket from Singapore to Thailand, that's going to add

three Singapore dollars. That's about $2.20 us. Singapore to Tokyo, that's going to add an additional $6. Singapore to London another $16 or about $12 us. So it's not a big sum to pay currently, but of course, that will increase with more staff usage being mandated. I know you travel a lot as a customer. Do you think this is a reasonable price point to start with? I don't think I

to be using myself as an example. But what I can say though is that the price rise as described by the Singapore Transport Minister Qi Hong Tat, he described it as manageable and I would argue that look, you're going to be paying more than what the numbers I just rattled out for travel insurance. So certainly a small price to pay for making sure that your carbon footprint is reduced somewhat. And don't forget the Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore.

She developed this plan in consultation with industry and other stakeholders. So obviously they were supportive of this. What I can also say is that Willie Walsh at Iata said that he was also very supportive of this, but he also cautioned that taxation to pay for aviation sustainability. They might not reduce the number of flights, but they could actually price some people out of flying further down the road and that could lead to empty seats on planes which isn't good for the environment.

And then another person I spoke to Louis Philippe de Oliveira, who is Director General of the Airports Council International. They represent most of the airports in the world. They said that governments really need to invest in new refineries to help bring down the cost. And so he's saying that the solution isn't about capacity restrictions. The solution isn't about taxing the travelers but really the solution is finding ways to work together to increase production capacity.

So beyond sustainable fuel, Roland and what are other green measures or solutions that were discussed at the event? We talked a lot about S A but there's also notable advancements in aircraft design manufacturing to enhance fuel efficiency. And one that comes to mind for me was the next generation jet planes that will be using half the fuel that they're using today for the same range as well as the same payload. There was this California base

company called Jet zero. It's actually coming up with a blended wing body plane. Remember the basic design of a commercial airplane hasn't changed in the last 60 years, you have a long tube and you stick wings on the side of it. But the basic idea really with a blended wing body is to create a plane with less drag and to be more fuel efficient. So they do this by making the wing of the plane broader, so it becomes more stable and then they shorten the tail, it doesn't need a

tail surface. So the fuselage becomes shorter and then you have more volume in the middle of the plane. If you can imagine that the closest I can describe it really is that it looks a little bit like the stealth plane, the B two bomber, if you've ever seen one of those. So that is how commercial planes could look like in the future. One of the main challenges for holding manufacturers back all these years was because of pressurization, the irregular shape of this BB plane, it makes it

more difficult to equalize pressure in the cabin. What's happened since then, of course is that NASA, they've made tremendous advances in materials. They've come up with a composite material that's both strong and light and that's the breakthrough really, that's helping jet zero. And with this technology, you're able to build passenger planes to be able to build cargo planes as well as a fuel tank if you want. And the best part about this is that actually will fit

into existing airport infrastructure. So you don't have to change the configuration of an airport. Jet zero really has an ambitious target of putting one into service. One of these blended wing aircraft as soon as 2030 they are being supported by the US Air Force. They got a $235 million contract recently to develop a full scale demonstrator. That's a working model to test flight test flights happening in 2027. So they are expecting big things. Here's what Tom o'leary ceo of

Jet Zero had to say about sustainable aviation. We've been solving problems of sustainability in aviation for so long based almost entirely on propulsion. When we move to a new airframe that is more efficient. We enable virtually all the other forms. We make sa more affordable. We make electric, more workable along with hydrogen, right? Because electric requires batteries which weigh a lot. So you need a more efficient airframe, right? Hydrogen requires a lot of volume.

So you need a volumetrically efficient airframe. We provide all those things uh with this one airframe advancement, he's essentially saying that they are blended wing body planes will be future proofed to work with either elect batteries or hydrogen fuel in the distant future. Ok. Hydrogen, let's talk about that. Hydrogen powered planes. We've heard a lot about it. What is it? And how far has

it developed? Yes, hydrogen powered airplanes uses, of course, hydrogen gas as the power source and the gas is burned in a jet engine. Now, here's how the system works. Typically, the wings of a plane stores the jet fuel and that drives the engines. But in this case, hydrogen gas that's stored in the fuselage at the back of the plane in the tanks and then it gets fed into the jet engines at the wings of the plane because this is due to

the highly volatile nature of hydrogen gas. And that's why you need a cylindrical shaped storage tanks for thermal efficiency. So the hydrogen gets into the engines at the wings and this is where the magic really happens because hydrogen is mixed with oxygen or air and then it goes through fuel cells or battery cells and that creates electricity that runs the motors. The only by product of that is water totally green.

But the problem is of course that the aircraft stores this hydrogen in gaseous forms at the back of the plane. There are also alternatives to store hydrogen as liquid form which occupies less space, less heavy, but the tanks themselves has to be kept very cold and the liquid of course, needs to be converted back into gas before it's used. What the developers are hoping for is that maybe hydrogen gas can be used for

short haul flights. Liquid hydrogen can be used for longer haul flights and turned into gas use for as and when needed. It's still very far off. They could start maybe coming into the scene by late 20 thirties and then scaling up through 20 fifties. But don't expect hydrogen planes to be commercialized until way past 2050 where up to maybe a third of the aviation fleet could be hydrogen by then. So still quite

a way off. President of Airbus Asia Pacific Anan Stanley, he of course, is very supportive of the technology as Airbus has always been because they have been doing research and development on it. And he's saying that it really ticks all the boxes, it's safe, it's versatile, it's lightweight in terms of storage. This is what he had to say. We are fully committed to bringing a hydrogen fueled aircraft

by 2035. It's coming along very well. I mean, we are doing a lot of work on it year over year and we're looking at multiple different prototypes and vectors for that aircraft, whether it is combustion, which means we burn the hydrogen or it's fuel cell based. But we're very excited and working a lot on that. So Airbus believes that hydrogen can potentially cut aircraft emissions by half and while hydrogen is a clean fuel and it's green really depends on the carbon footprint that is

used to actually produce it. So unlike s existing planes cannot be retrofitted. So using hydrogen as a source, you need a new plane and the infrastructure at the airports that also needs to change in order to receive as well as to store, to deliver hydrogen either in liquid or gas forms to the planes themselves. Based on all the experts and industry players that you've spoken to can sustainable aviation truly take off.

I wouldn't say can sustainable aviation take off. It has to, it will, you know the saying that it takes an entire village to enable a plane to take off. What sustainable aviation means is that it's going to take an even bigger village. Essentially the best analogy I can give you really is that it's several bridges all leading to the same destination. And as time goes by, you're going to find that certain bridges are going to be preferred to others. So that's

the pathway to sustainable aviation. Look, 20 years ago, you barely saw any electric cars on the roads today. They are the number one best seller. I mean, even in China, you can only buy an electric car. It is the only option. So sustainable aviation usage of s hydrogen planes. When they come into existence, all these things are certainty. It's only a matter of time. Well, Roland, a pleasure to have you on the show. Thank you very much for your time. It's been very insightful.

My thanks to Roland and to our listeners, you can find Roland's coverage at the Singapore Air Show and his full interviews on CN A's youtube channel and on our website CN A dot Asia, the team behind this podcast is Tiffany Tsai, Nguyen, Joan Chen and Christina Robert. Till next week, I'm Julie Yu.