When will the world exceed 1.5C and 2C of global warming?

While the growth of global emissions has slowed in recent years, there is a large and growing gap between current commitments and what would be needed to avoid exceeding these global temperature limits.

Carbon Brief has provided an analysis of when the world is expected to pass these limits in the absence of large future emissions reductions.

Their analysis shows that:

The world will likely exceed 1.5C between 2030 and 2032 in scenarios where emissions are not rapidly reduced

The 2C threshold will likely be exceeded between 2043  in the highest emissions scenario

In a scenario of modest mitigation – where emissions remain close to current levels – the 2C threshold would be exceeded around 2052.