Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg - podcast cover

Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg

Spencer Greenbergpodcast.clearerthinking.org
Clearer Thinking is a podcast about ideas that truly matter. If you enjoy learning about powerful, practical concepts and frameworks, wish you had more deep, intellectual conversations in your life, or are looking for non-BS self-improvement, then we think you'll love this podcast! Each week we invite a brilliant guest to bring four important ideas to discuss for an in-depth conversation. Topics include psychology, society, behavior change, philosophy, science, artificial intelligence, math, economics, self-help, mental health, and technology. We focus on ideas that can be applied right now to make your life better or to help you better understand yourself and the world, aiming to teach you the best mental tools to enhance your learning, self-improvement efforts, and decision-making. • We take on important, thorny questions like: • What's the best way to help a friend or loved one going through a difficult time? How can we make our worldviews more accurate? How can we hone the accuracy of our thinking? What are the advantages of using our "gut" to make decisions? And when should we expect careful, analytical reflection to be more effective? Why do societies sometimes collapse? And what can we do to reduce the chance that ours collapses? Why is the world today so much worse than it could be? And what can we do to make it better? What are the good and bad parts of tradition? And are there more meaningful and ethical ways of carrying out important rituals, such as honoring the dead? How can we move beyond zero-sum, adversarial negotiations and create more positive-sum interactions?
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Episodes

Will AI superintelligence kill us all? (with Nate Soares)

Read the full transcript here. Are the existential risks posed by superhuman AI fundamentally different from prior technological threats such as nuclear weapons or pandemics? How do the inherent “alien drives” that emerge from AI training processes complicate our ability to control or align these systems? Can we truly predict the behavior of entities that are “grown” rather than “crafted,” and what does this mean for accountability? To what extent does the analogy between human evolutionary driv...

Oct 15, 20251 hr 24 min

Do facts have an expiration date? (with Samuel Arbesman)

Read the full transcript here. What does it mean to treat facts as drafts rather than monuments? If truth is something we approach, how do we act while it’s still provisional? When definitions shift, what really changes? How do better instruments quietly rewrite the world we think we know? Are we mostly refining truths or replacing them? When do scientific metaphors clarify and when do they mislead? What public stories make self-correction legible and trusted? What features make science self-cor...

Oct 08, 20251 hr 16 min

From prisoner to escaping inner prisons (with Shaka Senghor)

Read the full transcript here. What changes when we treat violence as a human problem rather than a demographic story? Are fear, anger, and shame the real levers behind sudden harm? How much agency can we ask of people shaped by chaos without ignoring that chaos? Where is the line between explanation and excuse? What would an honest narrative about community safety sound like? Do neighborhoods want fewer police, or different policing grounded in respect? How do we build cultures where accountabi...

Oct 01, 20251 hr 17 min

A new paradigm for psychology research (with Slime Mold Time Mold)

Read the full transcript here. What changes when psychology stops naming traits and starts naming parts - can “entities and rules” turn fuzzy labels into testable mechanisms? If the mind is a web of governors with set points, what exactly is being controlled - and how do error signals become feelings? Are hunger, fear, and status-seeking all negative-feedback problems, and where do outliers like anger or awe fit? What would count as disconfirming evidence for a cybernetic view - useful constrain...

Sep 24, 20251 hr 27 min

Beyond saving lives: happiness and doing good (with Michael Plant)

Read the full transcript here. Are we trying to maximize moment-to-moment happiness or life satisfaction? Can self-reports really guide policy and giving? What happens to quality of life metrics when we judge impact by wellbeing instead of health or income? How should we compare treating depression to providing clean water when their benefits feel incomparable? Do cultural norms and scale-use quirks impact the accuracy of global happiness scores? How much do biases warp both our forecasts and ou...

Sep 17, 20251 hr 12 min

Darwinian Demons: Climate Change and the AI Arms Race (with Kristian Rönn)

Read the full transcript here. Are existential risks from AI fundamentally different from those posed by previous technologies such as nuclear weapons? How can global cooperation overcome the challenges posed by national interests? What mechanisms might enable effective governance of technologies that transcend borders? How do competitive pressures drive harmful behaviors even when they threaten long-term stability? How might we balance innovation with precaution in rapidly advancing fields? Is ...

Sep 10, 20251 hr 18 min

Seeing through cognitive traps (with Alex Edmans)

Read the full transcript here. How do we distinguish correlation from causation in organizational success? How common is it to mistake luck or data mining for genuine effects in research findings? What are the challenges in interpreting ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) criteria? Why is governance considered distinct from environmental and social impact? How should uncertainty in climate science affect our policy choices? Are regulation and free markets really at odds, or can they be mutua...

Sep 03, 20251 hr 32 min

The most important century (with Holden Karnofsky)

Read the full transcript here. Has society reached ‘peak progress’? Can we sustain the level of economic growth that technology has enabled over the last century? Have researchers plucked the last of science's "low-hanging fruit?" Why did early science innovators have outsized impact per capita? As fields mature, why does per-researcher output fall? Can a swarm of AI systems materially accelerate research? What does exponential growth hide about the risk of collapse? Will specialized AI outcompe...

Aug 27, 20251 hr 48 min

Should we try to live forever? (with Ariel Zeleznikow-Johnston)

Read the full transcript here. Why do humans live as long as they do? Since whales have literally tons more cells than humans, why don't they develop cancers at much higher rates than humans? What can the genetic trade-offs we observe in other organisms teach us about increasing human longevity? Will we eventually be able to put people into some kind of stasis? What is the state of such technology? What counts as being dead? How much brain damage can a person sustain before they're no longer the...

Aug 22, 20251 hr 14 min

Trying to convince Spencer to be a utilitarian (with Tyler John)

Read the full transcript here. How has utilitarianism evolved from early Chinese Mohism to the formulations of Jeremy Bentham and John Stuart Mill? On what points did Bentham and Mill agree and disagree? How has utilitarianism shaped Effective Altruism? Does utilitarianism only ever evaluate actions , or does it also evaluate people ? Does the "veil of ignorance" actually help to build the case for utilitarianism? What's wrong with just trying to maximize expected value? Does acceptance of utili...

Aug 13, 20251 hr 29 min

A conversation with an autistic person (with Megan Neff)

Read the full transcript here. What does autism feel like from the inside? Do autistic people lack empathy? What is context insensitivity? What are some ways special interests can manifest in autistic people? What are some less common ways stimming can manifest? What are the main components of autism? Can you be diagnosed with autism if you meet all the diagnostic criteria but didn't have any symptoms in childhood? Is autism only a problem in relation to neurotypical people? Is there a link betw...

Aug 06, 20251 hr 35 min

AI: Autonomous or controllable? Pick one (with Anthony Aguirre)

Read the full transcript here. Is AI that's both superintelligent and aligned even possible? Does increased intelligence necessarily entail decreased controllability? What's the difference between "safe" and "under control"? There seems to be a fundamental tension between autonomy and control, so is it conceivable that we could create superintelligent AIs that are both autonomous enough to do things that matter and also controllable enough for us to manage them? Is general intelligence needed fo...

Jul 30, 20251 hr 31 min

How much does global population decline matter? (with Dean Spears)

Read the full transcript here. What is the current global birth rate? What factors have contributed, or are currently contributing, to this rate? What outcomes will we experience as a result, and when? How accurate are demographers' projections on this topic? How much of a problem is local over-population? Could a low global birth rate eventually be overcome by high birth rates within a few specific groups? Why does any of this matter? How is average age in the US changing? What should the Ameri...

Jul 23, 20251 hr 8 min

Is AI going to ruin everything? (with Gabriel Alfour)

Read the full transcript here. Is AI going to ruin everything? What kind of AI-related dangers should we be most worried about? What do good institutions look like? Should designing better institutions be a major priority for modern civilizations? What are the various ways institutions decay? How much should we blame social media for the current state of our institutions? Under what conditions, if any, should the flow of information be regulated? What are some of the lesser-known kinds of AI dis...

Jul 16, 20251 hr 19 min

What listeners think Spencer's wrong about: steel-manning critiques

Read the full transcript here. What defines a cult? Is there such a thing as a good cult? Do Clearer Thinking's tools actually help people? Why does Clearer Thinking share its tools for free for everyone to use? How legitimate is the research Clearer Thinking does to create its tools? Is that research too reliant on self-report? Do Clearer Thinking's tools focus too much on the average person and fail to account for significant variance among people? Should AI companies be required to create and...

Jul 10, 20251 hr 26 min

What do we know about psychology that matters? (with Paul Bloom)

Read the full transcript here. NOTE: The video version of this conversation is available on YouTube: https://youtu.be/hWNknrc23Fo In light of the replication crisis, should social scientists try to replicate every major finding in the field's history? Why is human memory so faulty? And since human memory is so faulty, why do we take eyewitness testimony in legal contexts so seriously? How different are people's experiences of the world? What are the various failure modes in social science resear...

Jul 03, 20251 hr 21 min

Bringing your "A-game" to your relationships (with Annie Lalla)

Read the full transcript here. What does it mean to bring your "A-game" to relationships? What is emotional "fitness"? What forces do relationships need to balance to remain stable and healthy? Are we attracted to a particular brand of heartbreak? What are "original attachment wounds"? Can Dark Triad traits be tamed? What emergent properties do relationships exhibit? What nourishes a relationship? When should relationships end? Why might people choose to maintain abusive relationships? How can t...

Jun 25, 20251 hr 20 min

The rival philosophies to Stoicism that you've never heard about (with Greg Lopez)

Read the full transcript here. Do we still have a lot to learn from ancient Greco-Roman philosophies? What is telos ? What is ataraxia ? What is "dark" Stoicism? What is the "resilient asshole" problem? What is (or what has) value according to Stoicism? What are the similarities and differences between Stoicism and Buddhism? Why might someone prefer a life "philosophy" over a set of life "hacks"? What is good? And how do you know? How could you know if you potentially adopted the wrong life phil...

Jun 18, 20251 hr 9 min

What can we all agree on? (with Bradley Tusk)

Read the full transcript here. In times of such extreme political polarization, where can we find common ground? Should we require disclosure of AI authorship? Should AI companies be required to provide fingerprinting tools that can identify when something has been generated by one of their models? Should movie theaters be required to report when movies actually start? Should members of Congress be prohibited from insider trading? Should gerrymandering be outlawed? Should there be age limits on ...

Jun 11, 20251 hr 5 min

Shamanism, witchcraft, and the power of narrative (with Manvir Singh)

Read the full transcript here. What do westerners misunderstand about "tribal" cultures? How does justice in very small communities differ from justice in large nation-states? Why do some cultures have bride prices (i.e., groom's family pays bride's family) and others have dowries (i.e., bride's family pays groom's family)? How do cultures differ with respect to the body parts they sexualize? How many cultures across time have used psychedelics? Do all religions make moral demands? How do religi...

Jun 04, 20251 hr 33 min

Which Spencer is real? Spencer vs. his AI clone

Read the full transcript here. Can you tell which is the real Spencer and which is his AI clone? How irrational are people really? What do most people misunderstand about psychology? What are the best tools to use to accomplish various societal goals? How good are we at predicting the future? Why do we have such a hard time overcoming our tribal instincts in politics? How many people get into politics for narcissistic reasons? What systems could be put in place to help prevent government corrupt...

May 28, 202540 min

Too many mental health challenges and not enough psychiatrists (with Jacob Appel)

Read the full transcript here. How big is the current mental health crisis? What's causing it? What do we know about the age distribution of people suffering from mental health issues right now? Is the crisis just that more people are suffering from anxiety and depression, or is there an increase in other disorders as well? Why are psychiatrists seemingly very picky about which insurance policies they'll accept? What percent of hospital psychiatric patients are repeat visitors? What would an ide...

May 21, 20251 hr 19 min

Misinformation from all sides (with Brian Dunning)

Read the full transcript here. Why is misinformation a never-ending problem? What fraction of misinformation is intentionally manipulative? What's the difference between bullshit and other kinds of misinformation? What are the various kinds of beliefs we hold? How do the political left and right (at least in the US) differ in their production and consumption of misinformation? Have any conspiracy theories ever been proven right? Did Jeffrey Epstein kill himself? Why do people listen to Alex Jone...

May 14, 20251 hr 16 min

A conversation with a rigid perfectionist who has OCPD (with Darryl Rossignol)

Read the full transcript here. What is obsessive compulsive personality disorder (OCPD), and how does it compare to obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD)? Why is it relatively prevalent and yet also relatively unheard-of? What can people with OCPD do well? What does OCPD feel like from the inside? Which fictional characters might have OCPD? How do people with OCPD typically engage with religion? How can you have better relationships with people in your life who have OCPD? What should you do if you...

May 07, 20251 hr 15 min

Simple and effective methods for helping people that nonprofits often ignore (with Kanika Bahl)

Read the full transcript here. Why do nonprofits often ignore the simplest, most obvious solutions for helping the world? Why do some problems get a lot of attention while others — often of equal or greater importance — go completely unaddressed? Why is behavior change so hard? When should or shouldn't NGOs collaborate with governments? Why are deworming effects not as immediately noticeable as might be expected? What sorts of incentive structures surround charities? How can NGOs and nonprofits ...

Apr 30, 20251 hr 7 min

How to unleash student potential in education (with Jack Despain Zhou)

Read the full transcript here. How bad are things in US education? Why does it seem that educational progress has stagnated? What parts of the US education system should be reformed? Is it better to group students by skill level or by age? How useful are standardized tests? Why is there so commonly a disconnect between what cognitive science tells us about how people learn and the practices that are actually implemented in classrooms? How much do we know about what it's like in schools today? Wh...

Apr 23, 20251 hr 19 min

How f***ed is psychology? (with Adam Mastroianni)

Read the full transcript here. Is the bar for what counts as new knowledge higher in psychology than in other scientific fields? Why did the field of psychology formally start centuries later than other scientific fields? Why is it so hard to make progress in psychology? How useful are social science "mega-studies"? What actually helps people stick to habits? What do scientists often get wrong about the philosophy of science? What have social scientists learned so far from the replication crisis...

Apr 20, 20251 hr 43 min

A conversation with a multiple-time survivor of sexual abuse

Read the full transcript here. Why might being the victim of sexual abuse increase the likelihood of being re-victimized? What warning signs, if any, might an abuser exhibit before becoming abusive? How might trauma differ when caused by someone the victim knows versus by someone who is a stranger to them? Why might victims choose to continue interacting with their abusers after receiving abuse? Why might trauma even cause a person to bond with their abuser? What is "affirmative" consent? Which ...

Apr 10, 20251 hr 6 min

A story can change the world (with Elizabeth Cox)

Read the full transcript here. How important is story-telling for changing the world? What counts as a story? How closely should persuasive stories conform to the formula of "the hero's journey"? How much time do we spend on average thinking about stories? How can raw data be shaped into a story that's both true and compelling? What are some good examples of stories that have changed the world for the better? When, if ever, do scare tactics work? Can a bad guy with a story only be stopped by a g...

Apr 02, 20251 hr 11 min

The heavy price you'll have to pay to have a healthy relationship (with David Burns)

Read the full transcript here. What are the main causes of problems in romantic relationships? What are the behaviors and patterns that lead to healthy relationships? What is the price of a good relationship? Are dark triad traits (i.e., psychopathy / sociopathy, Narcissism, and Machiavellianism) treatable? What is outcome resistance? What is process resistance? How can a person overcome their own resistance to healthy change? When are labels useful? Do thoughts lead to emotions? Or do emotions ...

Mar 28, 20251 hr 37 min
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