Chris Riback speaks with pollster Mark Blumenthal on what we know about the 2016 presidential election. For answers to a Presidential campaign that few predicted and fewer, perhaps, pretend to understand, we often turn to the dark science of polling. Given the overwhelming amount of data each of us generates each day – from clicks to searches to surveys and more – the people who tell us what we think and feel have taken an important if not outsized role in American society generally and American...
Mar 20, 2016•35 min
Chris Riback and Taegan Goddard discuss the how Donald Trump's campaign not only broke the Republican party but broke political science. What in the world is going on? We are well into a primary season with results few of us expected, headed straight to a general election that even fewer dare to predict. All of us – and certainly both major political parties – are in unchartered territory. For Democrats, their new location at least appears to be on a pre-existing map. For Republicans, their new ...
Mar 16, 2016•26 min
With the elections finally behind us, our focus turns the hard work of governing – and the big question of what, if anything, will get done?With Republicans controlling Congress and a lame duck Democrat who’s surely thinking about his legacy in the White House, what will give? Or are we about to see gridlock so extreme that the last few years will look incredibly productive in comparison?It won’t take long to find out. With the President’s Executive Order to remake Immigration in America – and w...
Nov 22, 2014•23 min
Midterms 2014 are just around the corner, and for Repubicans it seems the voting can’t come soon enough. State by state, poll by poll, the GOP appears to pick up steam by the day. They can taste Senate control.Are the appearances true? Might there even be a Republican wave? Which key races – in the Senate and the House – should we make sure to watch?David King is Senior Lecturer in Public Policy at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government. He directed the Task Force on Election Administration for ...
Nov 01, 2014•26 min
It’s almost time – Election Day 2014, Midterm style is less than two weeks away. We can see the finish line from here – unless, that is, the finish line gets moved.With Republicans seeming more and more likely to take Senate control, could this election instead go into overtime? With possible runoffs in Georgia and Louisiana, recounts in close races, vote count challenges in states like Alaska, decisions by independent candidates on who they will caucus with… Could control of the Senate hang in ...
Oct 24, 2014•25 min
We’re proud to have as our guest today – our sponsor, Charlie Cook, Editor and Publisher of the Cook Political Report and Columnist for the National Journal.Few follow the ins and outs of political campaigns more closely than Cook and his team of reporters and editors. And with less than three weeks to go before the new "most important election of our lifetimes," they’re tracking all the key races and trends – in particular, who will take control of the U.S. Senate. This is a public episode. If ...
Oct 16, 2014•26 min
With less than a month to go, the question that’s been at the center of the midterm elections continues to be the big unknown: Who will take control of the Senate.We know that stats: 36 races are on the ballots; to takeover control, Republicans need a net gain of 6. And the closer we get, the more the contest seems to be coming down to just 4 or 5 key states.As listeners of this podcast know, most predictions show probabilities leaning toward a Republican win. Of course, a few notable exceptions...
Oct 09, 2014•28 min
Is there any office in American politics with simultaneously more and less power than the Vice Presidency?Indeed, there may be no phrase in American politics that carries more unspoken meanings than “A heartbeat away.” It’s been used to create fear and doubt, as well as confidence and sure-handedness. It’s both an insult and an honor – the burden and opportunity that comes with attaining our nation’s second-highest office.In recent campaigns, the office has taken on incredible – even outsized – ...
Oct 03, 2014•32 min
It remains impossible to talk about the 2014 Midterms without turning immediately to the big question – the only question –which party will take Senate Control? And who are we to fight that power?So while we wait 6 weeks for actual results, we turn instead to predictive analysis –deep dives into dozens of race-by-race polls that seem to be released hourly. What do they show? How many seats are truly still in play? Where should we focus attention, and within that focus, what should we be looking ...
Sep 25, 2014•32 min
As we make our way towards the first Tuesday in November, a highly-watched, always-debated component of American politics is ready to take it’s place center stage: Statistical models.These models, which connect and weight a range of ever-changing data, have replaced the simple “who will win by how many points” projections. And with Senate control both still undetermined and central to our political future, understanding these models is key.And, of course, none of these models is better known or ...
Sep 18, 2014•26 min
Every topic has its own slang, it’s own lingua franca. From football’s NFL stadiums to academia’s ivory towers to California’s beaches, every niche these days maintains a coded language of its own.To really understand these niches – to be clear on what’s behind the headlines, what people are really saying, what’s really going on – you need to speak the language. And if you don’t speak the language, you better have the right dictionary.Politics, of course, is no different. Here, “deep regret” is ...
Sep 10, 2014•25 min
Finally, summer is over! The relaxation, beach vacations and barbecues are finally behind us and in this post-Labor Day glow, Americans can focus on our prime national sport – the one with the late hits, flagrant fouls and crazy fanatics.Of course, I mean politics.And while this glorious season brings out the political junkies, it also brings out the political crazies. The extremists who have spent their time since the last election cycle tearing down the governments we elected and creating the ...
Sep 05, 2014•24 min
In little more than a week, we’ll mark 40 years since one of the darkest days in American politics, government and culture – 40 years since President Richard Nixon resigned our nation’s highest office.Much has been written and reviewed about Watergate. So much that there would seem little room for anything new.But there is.John Dean played a key role in the Watergate tale. He served as counsel to the President during that time, and while he did not know of the break-in when it occurred nor of Wh...
Jul 28, 2014•25 min
It’s time to review what may become the most important words in the 2014 Midterm and 2016 Presidential campaigns. These words are not immigration or gun control or employment. They’re neither liberal or conservative The most important words just may be microtargeting. Data mining. Analytics. That’s because the science of campaigning is hitting an all new level. Not only can politicians and campaigns target you through direct mail and online – through websites, social media, blogs and more. They ...
Jul 22, 2014•31 min
Is political courage dead? The question gets asked a lot these days, most recently around President Obama and the immigration-border control disaster. Joe Klein of Time wrote what many of us feel: “True political courage is near extinct.” He continued: “Nowadays politicians are swaddled by their media consultants, who determine whether it is ‘safe’ to be ‘courageous.’”Of course, it’s not just immigration. Pick any issue – health care, gun control, voter ID laws – and the lack of political courag...
Jul 18, 2014•27 min
It’s an annual summer event, as much a part of our American culture as a Fourth of July barbeque – often with its own set of fireworks: Another Supreme Court term ended. It’s time to make sense of the policies and the politics.Important and intriguing decisions and alliances again this year: Birth Control and Obamacare; Privacy, police searches and cell phones; abortion protests; campaign finance regulations and more. We also may have seen a changing Court, with some two-thirds of all decisions ...
Jul 03, 2014•27 min
It’s no shock, of course, that we live in polarized times. Even with no empirical evidence, everything seems to feel more ideological and divided than it has in many of our lifetimes. So is that true? And if so, is there a way out?Well, we now have a major set of data, and they don’t look so great. The Pew Research Center for the People and the Press recently released the first of multiple reports on the “Political Polarization in the American Public.” And sadly the results may be more discourag...
Jun 27, 2014•31 min
For anyone who thought Midterms 2014 was only about the Senate and which party will take control, we recently got our wakeup call. Congress has another chamber, as well.You may have heard: House Majority Leader Eric Cantor lost his primary race to a Randolph-Macon College Economics Professor, David Brat. And since that shock – the first primary challenger to beat a sitting House Majority Leader since the position began in 1899 – the questions, politics and outlook for this season have all change...
Jun 25, 2014•28 min
Today’s issue, who’s running harder against President Obama – Republicans or Democrats? The question is only partly exaggerated. From criticism on “who lost Iraq” to the handling of the Army Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl prisoner exchange to even the environment. And, of course, there’s always Obamacare. So how legitimate is this criticism? Is President Obama – and his low approval ratings in various key states – weighing down the team? Should Democrats be more constructive and supportive of their chief? D...
Jun 20, 2014•16 min
For anyone who looks at our government today and says, “Everything seems great to me. No room for improvement here,” well, today’s conversation is not for you.Now that that person has stopped listening, here’s what the rest of America can learn from today’s talk: The problem is even worse that you thought. While most discussion on fixing government deals with the politics and the posturing, we instead might want to focus on something much more difficult to fix: Nobody is actually in charge. A mo...
Jun 20, 2014•30 min
At first glance, today’s conversation might seem as surprising as dog bites man: Money has taken over our political process. I know – not a shocker. But what if I told you that, quite possibly, our next President will be chosen by 5 or 6 of the richest people in America? Or a dozen? Certainly no more than 100?It’s hardly an exaggeration. From the historic growth of PACs to the Supreme Court’s 2010 Citizens United decision through now the increasing mega-wealth of the top .01 percent, the role of...
Jun 13, 2014•36 min
The White House recently announced a change at the top. Not the very top, of course, but as head of the Press Office. Jay Carney is stepping down; Josh Earnest is stepping up.The White House Press Secretary is, quite often, America’s face to the world. And speaking for the President, sometimes several times a day, the Press Secretary faces many masters – the Commander in Chief, the media, and of course, the American people.So how to balance the competing pressures: For example, protecting inform...
Jun 08, 2014•28 min
Forget the Koch Brothers or Super PACs or even President. The most-watched player in the 2014 Midterms just might be a computer program called LEO.LEO is the always-on, data-crunching, poll-adjusting Senate forecasting model used by the New York Times. Each day LEO takes the latest polls and historical data from around the country, blends in other information like fundraising and national polling, and then simulates all 36 Senate races – 250,000 times. And from that, each day LEO speaks about wh...
Jun 06, 2014•36 min
Throughout American history, the balance of faith and politics has helped define who we are. And that definition hasn’t always been totally clear.Examples of extreme positives and negatives have dominated our headlines – from the clergy’s role in driving the Civil Rights Movement to the abortion wars that have ended in murder in the name of faith to today’s debates on same sex marriage.The Constitution addresses the topic in Articles 1 and 6. Thomas Jefferson addressed it with his phrase noting ...
Jun 03, 2014•35 min
You think it’s hard to manage your life? Your schedule runs at the mercy of your boss or your clients or spouse or kids… Well, I’m pretty confident your life is smooth sailing compared to today’s guest.Michael D. Shear is White House Correspondent at the New York Times. In other words, when the most powerful person in the world decides to go to Hawaii or Capitol Hill or Afghanistan or the Washington, D.C. streets to buy a hot dog, you’ve got to be ready to drop everything and go. The tradeoff, o...
May 29, 2014•33 min
It’s no secret that trust in government and politicians continues to chill. From a recent Harvard poll of Millennials to earlier surveys of older voters, the question for Midterms 2014 may not be whom do we trust, but do we trust at all?But as our trust in real life politics may fall, our delight in fictional politics – hit television shows and other video programming – continues to rise. Is there a connection? And if so, what might that connection – and the role of trust – play not just for Mid...
May 29, 2014•35 min
As the battle for US Senate control continues to dominate Midterms 2014, perhaps the most influential and controversial senator in the process is not even running.It ’s hardly an exaggeration that Majority Leader Harry Reid is the key Senate player in the races – spoken and unspoken. Whether it’s a Republican candidate running against his name or a Democrat benefitting from Reid’s Senate Majority PAC, he seems to be everywhere.So how much power does Harry Reid have? He’s not known as a great cam...
May 23, 2014•31 min
With key Senate battles in multiple states, and both parties looking to build 2016 momentum, for Midterms this year, the old line is true: Every vote will count.So here’s some bad news for candidates who might be depending on young voters for victory: Don’t count on it.A prediction of low voter turnout is just one finding from the always revealing Millennials Poll from Harvard’s Institute of Politics at the Kennedy School of Government. Why might Millennials stay away? What’s their view of Obama...
May 21, 2014•31 min
It’s been more than a year since Michigan’s six-term U.S. Senator Carl Levin announced he was calling it quits. Like other Democrats, Levin made his decision early – giving his party the chance to choose its best candidate and build a big lead.While they might have their candidate, Michigan Democrats don’t have a big lead – if any lead at all.As the battle for U.S. Senate shapes up as the Midterm 2014 big prize, we travel to Michigan. With the country’s largest municipal bankruptcy and new and l...
May 17, 2014•29 min
As we continue our state by state deep dives, whaddya say we mess with Texas?In a place known for big personalities – big everything, really – this year is no exception.Of course, this year the eyes of Texas – and eyes in many other parts of the country – are on the Governor’s race. That’s where Democrats – with filibustering state senator Wendy Davis thought they had their best chance in 20 years to win back the Austin mansion. But with rising biography questions and lower-than-hoped-for poll n...
May 14, 2014•42 min
