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Weak Foodservice Capacity Lifts Restaurant Costs

Apr 11, 202439 min
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Episode description

Foodservice distribution capacity is very tight, Datum FS Founder and President David Maloni tells Bloomberg Intelligence, contributing to higher prices for their restaurant customers. In this episode of the Choppin’ It Up podcast, Maloni sits down with BI’s senior restaurant and foodservice analyst Michael Halen to discuss how higher distribution and labor expenses are contributing to inflation in the restaurant supply chain. He also comments on feed costs, Section 204 of the the FDA Food Safety Modernization Act and his outlook for several commodities including cattle.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

Welcome to Chopping It Up. I'm your host Mike Hanlon, the senior Restaurant and Food Service analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. Today we're joined by David Maloney. David is the founder of datam Fs, a supply chain consultancy. He's the host of the Farm to Fork podcast and partner in the Pastry Art Cafe in Sarasota. So thanks for taking time away from your many jobs to do this, David.

Speaker 2

Thanks for having me.

Speaker 1

Mike. Sure thing and we were just catching up quick before the podcast, and he told me you gave up beer for lent. So you're an IPA guy, right. Do you have any I pas right now that well prior to Lent that you were especially enjoying. Sure?

Speaker 3

Yeah, I prefer the locals. So Sarasota, we have two big breweries. Matter of fact, there's a one of them, Big Top. There's a big circus. The Ringling Brothers wintered here and so there's a lot of circus. There's a circus museum, there's all kinds of stuff in here.

Speaker 2

So Big Top is the main one of the big breweries.

Speaker 3

And actually they're opening up a beer garden about ten minutes down the road this month. So it's a celebration of being over and me giving up beer, I guess. And there's another one that's one National War Award. It's a small brewery called Caloosa, which was the Indians that were here settled in this area of Florida named after them, and they have a zote that is pretty good. As matter of fact, I'm pretty sure that's my Easter basket is for sixteen ounce zots for Sunday.

Speaker 1

Nice man. You know those sixteen ounce IPAs will get you too, man.

Speaker 3

Oh, I know, they're too big. That's why I never buy them. They're just too big.

Speaker 1

Yeah. There's one of the New York Industrial arts. They're excellent and super strong. And the first time I drank them, it was like a real hot summer day. It was like pre gaming for a Metallica concert, and they went down really really fast, and I was like, well, I got to slow down here, you know. And I've been introduced to Zombie Dust recently. It's a Midwest brewery maybe Zombie ducks Dust. Zombie Dust all right, cool artwork too, Yeah,

check them out. And so you were mentioning you substituted with a different alcohol.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I did.

Speaker 3

I'm not much of a liquor fan, but I am a more garita fan, and.

Speaker 2

So I decided, well, I'll buy a bottle.

Speaker 3

Tequila, a good bottle tequila, and I dog this the length of tequila. I think I've not that I drink that much, folks, but I really don't. I have a couple of beers or I wondered who drinks. I love a nice glass of wine when I'm cooking. But it's uh, I've probably drank more tequila this this Lent than I've drinking in the last decade, at least, that's what I've followed my friends.

Speaker 1

Well, I'm a tequila fan.

Speaker 3

Uh.

Speaker 1

You know, there's plenty of brands I like, but I'm big on G four.

Speaker 3

So if you come four, all right, I'm gonna need to detox from tequila for a while.

Speaker 1

So well, you know, probiotics, it's supposed to be the best alcohol for you. So okay, cool, all right, let's let's jump in. How's business at the cafe?

Speaker 2

You know, it's good.

Speaker 3

It's good, you know, generally Sarasota, and we're located on Main Street downtown Sarasota. We bought it two and a half years ago. It's been there for thirty years. We have probably the best patio in downtown historic Sarasota. I mean it's a great spot. You know, everybody comes in there, the mayor comes in there. I mean, it is the community.

It's the heartbeat of downtown Sarasota, you know, Sarah. Florida in general, I think struggling with when I say struggling, tourist business isn't quite what it was the last couple of years. And I think part of that is we have a lot more competition now. We were kind of the destination of choices. We were one of the only ones that were fully open, So you know, I think that, and you know, let's face it, as an industry, we've

raised our prices. I mean, we at the Cafe haven't raised our prices in over fifteen months, but you know, we probably had fifteen percent price increases since we bought it two and a half years ago.

Speaker 2

So we have that.

Speaker 3

We have more competition as Florida gets more crowded to you know, as far as so, but our traffic is down. And I'm hearing this consistently downtown, from high end restaurants to to QSR is down ten percent or so year on year, which is tough, but you know, it also forces you to get smarter about your business. And we have and we're making money. And if you can say that in this business, you're doing pretty well.

Speaker 1

Yeah for sure. All right, good stuff. So let's get into datam fs. Who's the typical customer and what services are you providing them?

Speaker 3

Yeah, so we're a consultancy of actually a group of fifteen mostly retired or near retired supply chain executives or consultants, some in food service distribution, some in food manufacturing, you know, for big brands like Procter and Gamble, And you know, we all have different talents. You know, mine in particular is more in the data supply chain commodities, which we're

going to talk about today. You know a lot of the other partners have obviously different expertise, but we all one passion and that that passion is to see the food service supply chain evolve. And I think you know what what COVID did to the food service supply chain is that one it exposed it that that it needs some help, but it also raised raised the the expectation and performance and the food service supply chain and the importance within the organizations. So I I I think this.

You know, we all want to see this, this food service supply chain evolve at least a little bit faster than it is. And you know, we think that the that you know, we have a passion for that and all this compounded knowledge that we've have, we can help it get there and that's our goal.

Speaker 1

Great, all right, So my mentor always taught me to start from the very beginning. Uh, when I'm doing my research, So how our feed and fertilizer costs tracking versus last year? And what's your outlook?

Speaker 3

Yeah, so we have good news there, right, So corn, the corn and soybean crops domestically were much better than the last couple of years. You know, weather was much better, acres acres, particularly for corn, we're very strong. So we've got historically adequate to almost ample corn supplies domestically. Soybean supplies you could make the argument that they're borderline tight

to adequate. Well, we're going to see bigger soybean acres this year in the United States, and so I'm optimistic if these cop crops can perform that we're going to see even better supplies as we get into twenty twenty five. So the trend and feed, which is extremely important for the food service industry and retailers for costs, particularly for proteins and dairy, the trend and is down. We are seeing that across the board with soybean meal, corn, even

soybean oil, wheat supplies are down. So that's a very good sign at least for commodity prices over the next couple of years.

Speaker 1

Great, and then is there a lag in how long we might see that kind of yeah.

Speaker 3

So, so you know, for restaurants, restaurants don't really buy feed, right they buy they buy the proteins and the dairy from from where feed can be a major cost component in that production.

Speaker 2

So it differs.

Speaker 3

So typically the poultry industry, of the chicken industry will react much faster, right, that lag will be much shorter. And we can talk about that more in a minute. I mean, but you're kind of seeing that dynamic right now where where we've seen poultry producers, at least on the spot markets, their margins are some of the best

we've seen in almost two years. So and chicken producers typically aren't very disciplined with production and so you know, it wouldn't surprise me if we see much better chicken supplies this fall. Then a lot of anticipating right now or we expected, you know, just a couple months ago, so you have that kind of kind of quick lag.

Speaker 2

And then if you if you kind of take it.

Speaker 3

To the next stretched step, which would be hogs or pork, which is not really that big of an item for restaurants, all right, but you're going to go into so if you kind of think about chickens would be quarters, you know, a couple I'm sorry, a couple months reaction, three or four depending on how many what the layer, the broiler layer situation is. Then you would have hogs, which might be quarters. It takes a couple of quarters or so two or three quarters. And then you get into cattle,

which is extremely important for the restaurant industry. Now we're talking years, right, and we have a particularly historic situation going on right now in cattle.

Speaker 1

Yeah, and we'll talk about that in a second. But and is that mainly a function of how long it takes to grow those animals to full size?

Speaker 2

Sure? Yeah, for sure, yep.

Speaker 1

Okay, great, So yeah, beef inflation, man, to your point continues to be a big talking point for all the restaurant companies we cover. Talk to us about the current dynamics in that market and how long you think it will take for supply to catch up with demand.

Speaker 3

Yeah, so it's going to the answer the last part of your question.

Speaker 2

It's going to take a while. Right.

Speaker 3

We are in a downward cycle and the cattle herd and you know, and that downward cycle takes years, and it takes years to recover, so.

Speaker 2

You know, and what drives that.

Speaker 3

There's several issues that can drive, but high feed prices the feed lots.

Speaker 2

Can dampen demand for the animals.

Speaker 3

You've particularly got drought in the southern planes, which we've had over the last couple of years. Very hard for the ranchers to expand if they don't have grass, right, very hard, I mean possible.

Speaker 1

Right.

Speaker 3

So we've had that cycle, and yes, the drought has improved, and we can talk about that more in a minute, but.

Speaker 2

Just to give you.

Speaker 3

Perspective, the last time we went through this cycle, beef production peaked in two thousand and eight. We did not return to two thousand and eight beef production levels until twenty and eighteen. Wow, I'm not saying it's going to take a decade, but this is not going to be fixed next year or the year after. And yeah, we may see better beef supplies. I think we're going to

see smaller beef supplies in twenty five. We may ac better beef supplies than twenty six, But if we look at our peak level, which would be twenty twenty two, it's gonna be at least twenty twenty eight. As a matter of fact, the USDA, I think and their long term projections doesn't have beef production returning to twenty twenty two levels until two thousand and thirty two.

Speaker 1

Wow. And so they're building, and they're in the process of building the herd, and that's part of the.

Speaker 2

Well, we haven't seen that yet, right.

Speaker 3

So we get a semi annual report from from the USDA on the cattle herd, the size of the cattle herd, and we got one at the end of January, and that was for January.

Speaker 2

One, and the cattle herd was down.

Speaker 3

Now there are things that I look for when we get our next report in the end of July. The conditions are there for them to expand. So certainly, let's just say, the watch is on, right, But.

Speaker 2

What I'm looking for is is.

Speaker 3

Less female animals in the slaughter mix or less female animals in the feed lots. And the idea is is there will be less at least as a percentage of a share of the total animals. There will be less because they're being retained to expand the hurt. And I haven't really seen that yet. Now, I will say, if you look at kind of you think of it this way, And this is probably one of the most important markets

for a lot of the restaurants you cover. But it's the beef trim markets, which typically go into Hamburger.

Speaker 1

Right.

Speaker 3

The beef, the leaner beef trim, meaning not as much fat, typically comes from your working cows. Okay, so your mama cows, your dairy cows, et cetera. Those prices right now are at record highs and seasonally they should continue to go higher, and they're a full eight percent above the peak last year already. That suggests to me that, hey, maybe some of these cows are being.

Speaker 1

Retained, gotcha, And so that's going to hurt near term supply if that happens. Got it? Very interesting? All right? Uh? You know we you touched on pork a little bit. But yeah, breakfast is important for me. I I fast intermittently, so I don't need too during breakfast time. But ye, all day breakfast is great man. That's how I love New Jersey diners, you know. Yeah, so is avion flu still impacting the egg market? And and what's happening in

pork bellies and sALS? Are my bacon and sausa's price is going to go up this year?

Speaker 3

Okay, well let's start with the pork. The pork one is easier, so they will start there. So, yeah, pork prices might be a little bit more expensive this year. But but but we got some data from the USDA the in December. The hog herd is is we get that data quarterly instead of semi annual.

Speaker 2

The hog herd is bigger than we anticipated.

Speaker 3

Pork production is going to be up pretty strong, particularly the back half of this year, so we may see some stronger retail feature activity for pork, which should lift those.

Speaker 2

Markets at times.

Speaker 3

Right, But I don't really don't think they're going to run away from US, and I think pork is going to be just fine, So you'll be good on your bacon.

Speaker 2

As far as avian flu.

Speaker 3

So the good news with avian flu and table legs is we haven't really had any cases for about two months or a little bit over two months, but we had quite a few cases in that migratory period where the birds were migrating there during the fall and into the winter into the early winter. The number of broiler

i'm sorry, table egg layers. When I say layers, I mean like a hen who's laying the eggs, right, Those were down on the latest USDA report, So that would be the March one number about one percent year on year, So that's the first time we've fallen below year ago levels. As a matter of fact, it's the first time that March has been below i'm sorry, only the third time in the last seven years that March has been below February. So it's definitely impacting the number of layers we have.

The egg prices are much more expensive than we anticipated anticipated them to be probably six months ago or before that avian flew. And even if we don't have any other cases, this is likely the impact the table eggs supply markets for probably at least into the summer. And so you know, we got through Easter already that's our big demand, right, I mean, the pool for Easter is done, so it's not that we I expect them to run

significantly higher. But but the down seasonal downside could be tempered.

Speaker 1

Interesting, And is there any concern that you know, uh, the like my spring migration could spread.

Speaker 2

A for sure?

Speaker 3

Yeah, yeah, sure, sure, So it's certainly something we have to watch. But you know, I mean there's always avian flu every year, right.

Speaker 2

You know, we had a.

Speaker 3

Couple of years ago we had really bad for table leggs. We're always going to have it, you know, I would say that, you know, the the US poultry industry is very good and becoming better and better at insulating itself from it. So you know, my hope is it won't be as bad.

Speaker 1

Okay, cool?

Speaker 3

Uh?

Speaker 1

And finishing up on breakfast coffee prices, they're up year over year. What's your twenty twenty four outlook?

Speaker 3

Yeah, so, I mean we've had some challenges in Brazil. You have some challenges with robust to crops, you know, not quite honestly not my area of great area of expertise, but you know, fairly inflated prices are.

Speaker 2

Likely to persist for coffee.

Speaker 3

But but not expected to run away from where we're at today.

Speaker 1

But that's a pretty delicate crop, right and something that you know, one bad frost or oh for.

Speaker 3

Sure, yeah, for sure, and it could it can then it can impact supplies for a couple of years.

Speaker 1

Right, Okay, yep, yeah, so uh it being volatile, it's definitely something we watch closely for Starbucks Tim Horton's coffee chains. Milk and cheese prices are way down year over year. Do you expect that to continue?

Speaker 2

Well, I'll tell you so.

Speaker 3

Uh. It's interesting that the the milk milk production has been tracking below year ago levels and typically when you see that, you would see much higher cheese prices, and we're not seeing it this year.

Speaker 2

And let me step back.

Speaker 3

One of the reasons that milk production is tracking below ye ago levels relates.

Speaker 2

Back to the cattle situation.

Speaker 3

So what happens is when cow supplies, remember those working cows, get very tight, prices go up for them, and so the dairy farmers kind of have these low milk prices. In the last couple of years, they've had high feed prices, including high alfalfa hay prices. There's an incentive for them to liquidate some of their lesser performing cows, right, and so those cow prices are high, and so they liquidate them.

So the cattle herd, that dairy cow herd is declining, and milk production is declining in part because what's going on.

Speaker 2

With cattle right now.

Speaker 3

Back to cheese, but cheese just doesn't seem want to go up. And what's interesting with cheese right now is I run a rough disappearance model on it, and disappearance meaning you know, we kind of relate that to consumption, but we don't really know what.

Speaker 2

Happens to it.

Speaker 3

Right The disappearance model on cheese here in the United States, the growth is the twelve month average of that growth is just zero point three percent.

Speaker 2

To give you some.

Speaker 3

Perspective, that is the smallest growth that we've seen, not including COVID, in over a decade. So something's going on there that I haven't been able to point my finger on yet.

Speaker 2

Could be prior high prices.

Speaker 3

You know, I know, I eat less cheese probably than I did ten or I love cheese right like my IPA's all right, So.

Speaker 1

But I drink less IPAs and I eat less cheese. The older I get, you know, exactly.

Speaker 3

So what I'm trying to you know, remember when we were young and you would say, oh, yeah, but but they're old, And now I kind of look at myself and well I have to try to try to go back and say, well, I don't understand what my kids are doing, but I'm old.

Speaker 2

So what's the difference?

Speaker 1

Right? So, for sure, and wet it's been on sale, should we expect continued weakness in that market?

Speaker 2

So you've got probably not right now.

Speaker 3

I don't expect it to run away from this, but you've got some challenges with the winter wheat crop here in the United States, but which is not abnormal, you know, And from the February weather numbers showed that the winter week country was still in drought and over fifty percent of the of the US crop is is winter week and so is it dire? No?

Speaker 2

But is it? Uh? You know, we've been in whek.

Speaker 3

This will be the third consecutive winter that winter wheat's been in a drought, and it'll be the and it's not as bad as the prior to winters. So I think what we're going to see is very similar supplies and similar prices. Now will if we do if those corn and soybean crops perform this summer. Uh, then that could pull wheat down into twenty five some and it could,

but then eventually it might also encourage some acreage. So we'llhaps see, you know, if we're going to see weakness, maybe we see if we get if we get a bumper spring wheat crop, and that's that's more important for the restaurant industry because that's your higher protein weeks. That's your Durham wheat. That's your hard red spring wheat, Durham wheat going into pasta's hard red spring going into typically bagels,

pizza doughs, et cetera. I mean, maybe if we get a bumper, but there is drought developing in the northern plains typically where those crops are.

Speaker 2

Make a home.

Speaker 1

Okay, but it seems like generally good news for the pizza chains. The last couple of points, you know, between cheese and wheat.

Speaker 3

Yeah, I will say this about cheese. The risk in the cheese markets is likely not to the downside from here, God right, And look, I would say the cure for low prices is always low prices, just like the cure for high high prices.

Speaker 2

So so.

Speaker 3

I would be surprised if cheese prices aren't higher later this year or twenty twenty five.

Speaker 1

Gotcha, Okay, And just to kind of put a wrap a bow around you know, this whole segment. What about the other input costs like distribution and labor.

Speaker 3

Yeah, so, so you know, I model a commodity index generally for the industry, and then I kind of break that out and actually can break it out per brand if that brand is interested. That commodity index has been tracking below prior year now for several months, but it is on the rise, and it is expected to climb above prior year next month at least per my forecast, and then trend above it pretty much for most of

the rest of the year. Not to be over alarming, we have some pretty good comps compared to last year, so but it is projected climb above prior year. But even with those lower input costs as a whole, obviously, beef is higher right right now, Chicken is higher than.

Speaker 2

A year ago.

Speaker 3

But even with these lower input costs, there's still a lot of cost within the supply chain that are going up. First and foremost is distribution capacity. And we talked about that when I interviewed you right on farm to fork distribution capacity is tight, very tight. You know, prior to five, six, seven years ago, distribution capacity was much better compared to

the number of restaurants. And what the restaurant industry did, uh, and and they're paying the price for it now is a lot of them they could find margin or savings by doing an RFP on distribution and switching and really kind of hammering these these distributors. Not saying everybody did it, but a lot of people did. Right now that situations kind of flipped and in some cases we've heard of

distributors firing restaurants and restaurant chains. Yeah and so, yeah, and so the restaurant the distributors rates have gone up about thirty percent over the last thirty forty three or four years.

Speaker 2

So that's a cost that's added to it.

Speaker 3

And let's face it, they have rising costs too, like warehousing labor, dry all that labor is way up and as a matter of fact, warehousing labor that the supply is extremely tight, and warehousing labor is outpacing overall labor inflation and any other part in the food service supply chain.

Speaker 2

So they have rising costs too, and you know.

Speaker 1

They're investing in their sales teams too. Yeah.

Speaker 2

Yeah.

Speaker 1

The larger chains that we're covering, Cisco and US Foods, Yeah, continue to.

Speaker 3

So there's those costs going up there. Food manufacturing costs are up, you have, and obviously labor into food manufacturing is going up as well, and that's outpacing overall labor inflation too. We've had some freight weakness here in the United States, but ocean freight typically what's going on, particularly with red Sea et cetera, is up substantially. So there are a lot of costs in there that that are

are impacting the cost of goods for these restaurants. So even though the command of these in some cases may be down, their product prices are up because of these other costs.

Speaker 1

Yeah. Yeah, it's interesting and you know, we spoke on your podcast. Is part of the reason why I watched gasoline and oil prices so closely. Got to ship this stuff all over the country, right, all right? Required compliance with the Food Safety Modernization Act Rule two oh four will be here before we know it. What is it and what does it mean for food service companies?

Speaker 3

Okay, so a lot of people will refer to it a THISMA two o four. Like Mike just said, it's the Food Safety Modernization Act, and it's Rule two zero four, which basically puts the onus on recalls and traceabilities to the parties within the supply chain, and that actually went into law in January of two thousand and twenty three. But there's a grace period until for a three year grace period, so really everybody's expected to be to fully comply by January twenty twenty six. I think it's January

twenty if there's a data in there somewhere. So basically, restaurants, and again I'm not a full expert in this, but restaurants do have some responsibility on their receiving records if there is a recall or a whole event that the FDA comes calling, and they have to be able to produce those records within twenty four hours, which seems kind of simple, but it's not.

Speaker 2

The distribution.

Speaker 3

The food manufacturing, distribution restaurant industry as a whole has not done a very good job of collaborating.

Speaker 2

With data.

Speaker 1

At all.

Speaker 3

Really, in a way, has driven a lot of inefficiencies for the industry, and it has been a major challenge, so you know it FISMATUO four.

Speaker 2

My hope is is that.

Speaker 3

It will be kind of tipping point for the industry towards more collaboration.

Speaker 2

But I have my doubts because.

Speaker 3

As I mentioned earlier, you know, the distributors really are kind of to me that the gatekeeper of all that information. Right They're the minimum, They're the ones dealing with the food manufacturers, and they're the ones going to the stores.

They're the one negotiating with the corporate entities. Right now, the food distributors have all the leverage in this and because distribution capacity is so tight, and probably a lot of them or remember pre COVID when they were beat up pretty good by a lot of these restaurant companies, and you know, the tendency is is maybe to not be as friendly back when they have the leverage, right.

But I think that when push comes to shove, those who can think the most strategically and can see the benefits, and the benefits really are if that data and collaboration can occur throughout the supply chain, which seems extremely simple but it's not because the data is really messy, it will benefit all parties, whether that is an inventory, whether that's the freshness ingredient going to the customer, whether that's leaner inventories and fresher turns at the restaurant, whether that's

leaner inventories, fresher turns and more efficient deliveries for the distributor, whether that's better production at the food manufacturer and better inventory levels.

Speaker 2

It should benefit all parties.

Speaker 1

Yeah, it's interesting. So I don't know if there's any link, but I'm going to ask it anyway. Chick fil A and Panero both moved away from serving no antibiotics ever chicken to no antibiotics important to human medicine. I don't know if that has any link to FISMA, whether it does or it doesn't. What do you think is the motivation for these moves?

Speaker 3

Well, I think it's really although it sounds again it sounds very simple to do no antibiotics or whatever it may be.

Speaker 2

Okay, whether that's.

Speaker 3

Grass fed, local, whatever it may be. Right, it sounds very simple, but again it's not. And I'll take for example, I'll use example of cattle because it's probably the easiest example, but even a chicken, we can go there, even a chicken. Chick fil A doesn't really well, I don't know for sure, but my guess is they don't buy the whole chicken, right. They're not in the chicken wing business, right, They're not

in the chicken thigh business, right. And so they can say, yeah, I'm willing to pay extra for ana or never ever, whatever it may be, right on the products I buy. But then can the manufacture get that value on the rest of the products. And historically the answer has been no, they really challenge to get it, whether that's chicken, hogs,

table eggs, whatever it may be. Right now, there is some interesting things and I just interviewed Jeff Olmoscato, who's the head of supply chain of Shakeshack in which we're air in a couple weeks, and he was talking about how there's an outfit in San Francisco who is bringing restaurants together that can buy different parts of the cow so they can fund that. So there are some things going on, but it's difficult to do. It's very difficult

to do. And let's face it, the environment with the consumers the consumers to say yes, they want this, but the environment from the consumers right now is not very favorable towards price increases. Or menu price increases, so you know, the consumers say they want this, but they may want it, but are they willing to pay for it is a totally different question.

Speaker 1

Yeah, that's a great point. And Panera it's interesting especially Panera was the first one to mention it because recently a survey came out and I think they got more credit for their antibiotic free proteins than any other chain except for Chipotle if I remember correctly, So they get a lot of credit in terms of surveys. But you can't always trust surveys. People act one way, and you know, say one thing and act in another, and you know, and and to your point, you know, people's wallets are

being pinched. So it's an interesting move saying that they're going to cut prices in this environment and increase portions. The only one that's mentioned that so far.

Speaker 3

Well, I look, I think that there's no doubt that consumers are frustrated with the menu price increases. You hear the stories, and now you're starting to hear exaggerated stories, right, and that's just not good for the indus. And you know, you could make the argument that that there's numerous given the tight labor situation, and yes it's better, but it's

not what it was pre COVID. But you could get you could make the argument that given the tight labor situation that at we as an industry aren't executing as well as we did. So here we are raising prices potentially not executing as well. And that's a tough that's that's a tough formula for success.

Speaker 1

Right, Yeah, for sure. And you know, to your point, it seems like the news stories are accelerating. First, it started with the eighteen dollars big macmeal. Then it was a twenty three dollars five guys, and now it's like almost every day I see one or two stories hitting the wire about just people being fed up with price increases. So it's going to be very interesting to see how, you know, which way, you know, how the low income consumer does this year. In your previous answer, you you know,

we were talking about chicken wings. You mentioned chicken wings, and I remembered that I forgot to ask you about this earlier. So, yeah, what's going on in the chicken wing market versus chicken breast?

Speaker 3

Yeah, so great question. So you know, chicken wings, So I mentioned that chicken supplies might be a heck of a lot better than this fall than they are today. So what happened leading up to today is chicken producer margins generally were not very good over the last year and a half, particularly let's just say twelve eighteen months ago, where chicken prices were very low and you had feed prices that were much higher than where we're at today. And so what happens is, you know, like I said,

the cure for low prices is always low prices. Chicken producers weren't making any money or we're struggling, and so what they do is they tap the brakes on production, right.

Speaker 2

And typically when they tap.

Speaker 3

The brakes on production, in part because chicken wings are typically I mean they're sold wholesale by the pound, but to the consumer they're typically sold by the.

Speaker 2

Piece, Right, you can see a.

Speaker 3

Rise in chicken wing prices that may outpace the other markets, so that might be a small part of it. You also see saw very low chicken prices six months ago, which has been spurring some significant feature activity bone in. Now now we have chicken wing prices at multi year highs.

Speaker 2

Right, And actually the spread.

Speaker 3

Between chicken wings and chicken breast to your question is very very high, meaning chicken wings are much much more expensive than historically than the boneless skinless chicken breast markets, which typically would shift some feature activity into boneless wings. And my guess is we'll see that, and you know, so the risk likely in the coming months in the wing market and seasonally, it's kind of easy to say as to the downside, whereas the breast markets likely to they upside.

Speaker 1

Interesting. Yeah, So a little side note. I had the best wings of my life last week, this little spot called Blue forty two in Elmwood Park, New Jersey. Found it on Instagram and a cousin and my son and I went and they were absolutely phenomenal.

Speaker 2

So are you a bone in or a boneless guy?

Speaker 1

I'm a bone in guy.

Speaker 2

Yeah.

Speaker 1

We went to town Man. We took down like five dozen wings between the three of us and they were great because we were chrispy, krispy and meaty and all of the sauces were awesome. So wow, Blue two listeners live in Jersey, I highly recommend Blue forty two.

Speaker 2

All right, they have ip as.

Speaker 1

Yeah, they have a full bar. It's a big Green Bay Packers bar.

Speaker 3

During full say, I'll be there Monday, but I'm a Steelers fan.

Speaker 1

Well you can go, just don't wear your Steelers gear, you know, right, right right, David, Thanks that was awesome. I'm actually really looking forward to listening to this again with a pen and notepad, because you know, there's so much good stuff you shared. Where can the audience go to find out more about datam fs and where can they listen to the form to fork podcasts?

Speaker 3

Yeah, sure, so I'll start the easier Well, they're both easy. Farm to fork farm to Fork. The Innovator's podcast is on all your favorite players. It also has a LinkedIn page which you can search as far as myself and datam fs. I'm also on LinkedIn, as is datam fs, and our website is datum d A t U M F S F as in food s as in service dot com.

Speaker 1

Great man, and I highly recommend you following David on LinkedIn. You know I subscribe to your weekly newsletter, which is fantastic. Thank you. I also want to thank the audience for tuning in. If you like the episode, please leave us a rating and click the bell if you'd like to subscribe. Next week we'll have a conversation with Joe rankin a CEO of Pinstripe, so make sure to check back

Speaker 3

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