Welcome to Chopping It Up. I'm your host, Michael Halen, a senior restaurant and food service analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. Today we're joined by Carl Orsbourne. He's the co author of the Delivering the Digital Restaurant books and COO of Juicer. Thanks for doing this, Carl.
It's a privilege to be here. Mico. Thank you for your time. Looking forward to our conversation.
Same man. So you know, let's start with a little background on your career path for the listeners that aren't familiar with your work.
Yeah, it's been an interesting journey in anyways. I spent eighteen years at BP, the big oil and gas company, fifteen years of which were in the convenience store environment. That culminated in me running a thousand unit chain over here on the West Coast and based in California for a number of years. And I got to a point in my career I think I turned forty, and I said, you know what, there's a small company out there called
Amazon doing convenience retail. Pretty well. I'm driving a Tesla and the world of gasoline might be a little different. And I was thinking, what's the next chapter going to look? Like, so I thought, maybe it's time to get into something a little bit more entrepreneurial, bit more innovative. And it led me to a conversation with actually my co author, who had left Young Brands and went to Kitchen United, you know, one of the foremost ghost kitchen companies out there.
And I was speaking to her initially with the intent of trying to understand, you know, what's it like leaving a company of that size and going into a startup environment, and really we hit it off really well, and she then said, well, why don't you come and run operations for us at Kitchen United. And so that's really what my journey into the restaurant restaurant technology started back in
twenty eighteen. And it was really there where I just met so many different folks in the industry, the independence through to the big chains, and saw the challenge of digitization, saw the challenge of off premise. Of course, all of this was pre pandemic, of course, where a lot of restaurants were trying to say, is this a flash in the pan, is this something we should take seriously, or is it something that perhaps will be gone in a
few years. And I said to Meredith one day, driving back from Pasadena, I said, it would be great if we could get each of our clients, our prospects, a book, a book that can tell them why this is happening, why it's not the evil vcs, why it's not the evil technology companies, but actually why it's the consumer that is driving a lot of the energy in this direction. And she said, great, and go on Amazon and see
what you can find. We'll do that, and I think that's where Meredith's expectation of our book Journey with end quite honestly, Mike, but it didn't right because obviously I didn't find anything on Amazon. When we left Kitchen United we went about writing the book, we were just in the early throes of the pandemic. Every restaurant very quickly became a ghost kitchen. Every restaurant had to embrace off premise, and our book came out right in the middle of it,
so it could have been better timed. And in that sense, the first book, delivering the Digital Restaurant, Your Roadmap to the Future of Food, was all about the why. We interviewed one hundred or so executives about what's going on in the worlds of off premise and technology, Why to be excited about it? Why not to be concerned? And it became an international but seller, won a few awards, and it really helped me, from a career standpoint, position
myself as a thought leader in this space. And that really led to me being involved in a number of advisory roles for food technology restaurant technology companies across the ecosystem.
I said, on the board of a restaurant group in the Middle East, and it's also where my co founders are of Juicer found me because they were coming in from the travel and hospitality sector and came across the book and they told me about what they were doing in building a company to help restaurants price more effectively, and for me, it just seemed like the next area of innovation for the industry, and so about eighteen months or so ago joined up with them and that's what
I've been doing ever since, alongside the new book which has just come out, which is under the same name, Delivering the Digital Restaurant but the Path the Digital Maturity, and this one is almost an accompaniment to the first, where it's more of a how to. The first books why trying to help restaurants figure out how to you know, work through the treacle of figuring out technology in our industry and hopefully help them focus where the focus is needed.
Yeah, it's great. Both books are phenomenal. I can't recommend them enough. And I love that you worked as a driver for door Dash as part of your research for the book, so I got to know, did you ever try to sneak a French fry? Where you ever tempted to sneak a French fry out of one of those bags as a DoorDash?
No? No, but it was very much a front and center area of concern at that time. A lot of media was referencing it. But you know, the thing I did would say is that I wasn't treated very nicely. I really felt the pain that a lot of drivers actually get. And you know, whether it be the staff at the restaurant looking at the drivers as where you're taking my tips away from me, or just the general inconvenience that drivers were bringing into the overall mix of
the operating environment of a restaurant. And I think that's really where we try to focus on the first book, where we dedicated a whole chapter to drivers to say, look, if you think about the driver as a team member, as someone that is an extension of your brand, because they are fall intents and purposes, the face of your brand at the doorsteps of your customers, you know, three miles away from your restaurant. If you treat them right,
then they're going to treat your brand right. And the best examples out there are those that you know will invite the drivers in to use the restroom, to give them a free cup of coffee, to let them try out their latest lco So that way, when they are in front of the customer, they can say, well, enjoy your chicken corma tonight. By the way, they've just done the teaka masala differently. You know, you should check it
out next time. That type of extension of service is what're we kind of have come to expect from the servers at our tables, So why shouldn't we expect that from the drivers at our doors as well.
Yeah, I think that was a great take away from that first book. So I'm hearing a little bit of concern about deliveries slowing down with consumer spending. Can you give us a little color about what's going on out there?
Yeah, Well, look, I think it's natural to see some pullback from where we've been in the last few years through the pandemic. I think given the inflationory environment, the resilience of the delivery channel is actually holding up pretty well. I was listening to some Medalia research shared at Food on Demand that forty one percent of customers say that in spite of the inflationary pressures, they're still ordering as frequently as they were before. And you know, you need
to look at the latest results from DoorDash right. Only last month, DoorDash raised its profit forecast after beating their quarterly revenue expectations, and they've been saying they've seen increased orders on food, groceries and convenience products despite the high inflation. And I think there's an important area there to focus on because they weren't necessarily saying it was just on food, right, So their investment in all these other verticals I think
is starting to play out as well. Similarly, you know, their orders are up in that course, so I think twenty seven percent. So yeah, I think there is some commentary out there. Clearly it's not necessarily at the heights of what we were seeing during the pandemic. You know, On the flip side of all that, I think we're definitely seeing a retrenchment on ultra fast retail for film, and I think that is certainly dropping back. You know, how fast do you really need that shampoo or box
of cereal? You know, I've read something recently about the app downloads food and drink delivery. App downloads globally have shrunk significantly in the last year. To give you some flavor,
I've got some numbers here over here. Seven hundred and thirty seven million apps were downloaded in twenty nineteen, seven hundred and ninety seven in twenty twenty, eight hundred and seventy seven million in twenty twenty one, and then it shrank in twenty twenty two to seven hundred and seventeen million, so an eighteen percent drop, and interestingly, about forty four
percent of those were in the Asia Pacific region. And from reading the first but you remember, we talked a lot about how the US in many ways is still behind a lot of other global entities out there, and I think, you know, when you see that, you can see there's still a lot of innovation happening, but an app download is i'd tell one off event so probably it's not something we should be too surprised to see.
Last thing I'd say about your question is if you were to look at the specific channels of dash Pass subscriptions or Uber one or grub up plus with their Amazon Prime hook up, you know that these subscription orientated channels are doing incredibly well right now. So the aggregators are super super bullish on those, and I think it's making the third party the first party conversion agenda that
much more difficult. But yeah, I'm still pretty confident. I think we're still going to be in a good place when it comes to delivery. But no huge surprise that given the inflation environment, we've seen a bit of a drop off.
Okay, good stuff, And that leads me to a couple more questions that we have. Is DoorDash still the top US option for third party delivery? And if so, what are their big competitive advantages?
Well, look, the bracton market share that they've been able to get is amazing. I think they're over or close to see sixty percent market share in the in the US right now. And again, I think that dash Pass subscription has been something particularly supportive of that. You know, they launched that in the summer of twenty eighteen, where Uber one only launched in I think it was the end of twenty twenty one. So they have approached market
sharing a very diligent fashion. You know, they targeted restaurants that didn't have any delivery service. They really put a focus on empowering restaurants with great data and insights and trying to help them have the tools necessary to succeed. And then they focused on the urban areas with the you know, the larger households, the higher average order values.
I think they try to be a restaurant first organization, and of course, unlike Uber which didn't necessarily start out with the eats products, they have got their heartened mind completely centered around the restaurant. You know, with all that said, there are creating a level of consternation out there right
now with the price parity piece. Right so they're sending letters out to restaurants saying, if you don't price within a certain price range of your dining or your first party platforms, we're going to reduce your presence or rankings on the marketplaces themselves, which has got so many restaurants concerned and nervous about well, what does this mean, you know, even some of the biggest chains out there now. I think there's a couple of ways of looking at that.
There's one, which is you could argue that given the inflation environments, you can understand Doordash's position because perhaps they're
starting to see that impact. But similarly, I think restaurants are realizing how the importance of having a first party platform because if they have, if they have something that can compete, if they can give their customers some value which is at a cheaper price and perhaps as good a experience, then why wouldn't they want to encourage their customers in that direction, not just because of the better margins, but also because of the data that they're going to be able to get access to.
Yeah, for the national change that we cover, this has been a key point of emphasis for them for a couple of years now. So how effective have chains been converting customers from third party to the first party in the last year or so and is that impacting third party delivery growth?
Well? I think it depends on the chain. Of course. You know, there's certainly success stories when you look at Chick fil A, Chipotle, Carva. I guess having a chain
beginning with CEA helps in that regard. But the way I'd look at it is is think about the experience that those chains are getting through their apps and their first party they're typically offering loyalty, they're typically offering payment, and they're typically offering an app that services an omni channel guest, which means it's not just an app for the delivery occasion, and that means you can use the app, you're encouraged to use the app for every time you
engage with the restaurant. That is so critical. It's a trifecta that I think is really really important. And you know, when you look at Chick fil A and Chipotle's numbers, certainly against the research that I've seen, they're getting something like thirty to forty percent of their customers coming through that first party channel. Now that said, they're still having thirty percent or so, you know, going through a third party.
And so with that in mind, that tells you that there's always going to be a third party customer, a customer that has the past subscription that wants to be able to utilize that particular medium. But even with Chick Filan Chipotle, going back to what we were just talking about with price premiums. You know, their price premiums are as high as thirty percent in some instances, and so they're saying to the guests, well, look, if you're willing to pay for that door Dash or Uber Eats experience,
go right ahead. You're going to pay twenty five thirty percent more. But if you come to us, we're going to give you rewards. We're going to give you a seamless, frictionless interface, and we're going to make sure you can
pay as simply as possible. You know, in the book, I have this reference to count the clicks, and what I encourage any restaurant listening to the podcast to do is to count the amount of steps it takes for your restaurant as a registered customer for them to go through a door dash and to order the main idem on your menu, and then count the same amount of steps it takes on your first party interface, because every incremental step, every incremental click, is a reason why they
sho might as well stay on the third party interface. And I think we put a lot of time thinking about how do we tell customers about the first party you know, is it a bag insert, is it the packaging. But actually a lot of times it's all about the user centered systems, design of the actual app, of the actual interface itself. And if you can get that right, then actually you're removing the friction and you're creating the convenience.
And of course whider customers order delivery because of the convenience, so you've got to have that front and center.
Yeah, and we saw that with Dominoes kind of being ahead of the ahead of the game a little bit with their tweet to order and zero click ordering systems and things of that nature. Our third party delivery rate's still in that fifteen to thirty percent range for orders placed on the marketplace.
Yes, they are obviously scale matters. You can get certainly some good rates out there. Exclusivity matters, so if you're only going to be on one particular marketplace, then that can lead to better rates. And I would always encourage restaurants to really think about which apps are most prevalent
in their area. Even with door dash having sixty percent, you know, there are certain parts of the states where they don't have as many DoorDash drivers, they don't have as much presence on the market for the customers using those apps. And you know that's true in places like New York, for example, where DoorDash users might not be
as prevalent as you might see elsewhere. Similarly, in LA close to where I am, the Postbates customer still is very, very prevalent, and so it's interesting how that has played out. But what's happened recently in the last year or two
is that they started to introduce different tiers. In fact, page seven of the part of the Digital Maturity touches on these different tiers, and it's trying to empower the restaurant with I guess a choice as to be able to say, well, depending on which level of tier you want to pay, you can get access to different services. So you have to be on a different tier, for example, to be able to have access to those dash past customers. You have to be on a certain tier to be
able to have a wider delivery radius. Right, So there are things which I think they're trying to do to empower the restaurants to be able to have that choice. But look, you know, we've gone from a world where this was a small yellow pages of restaurants and now it's huge, right, We're talking about a huge level of
choice that restaurants have to compete against. And it's super super important to be above the fold when customers are choosing, because there's only a certain amount of searches that they're going to go through before making a choice as to where they want to eat because they're hungry, right, They're not going to spend all night trying to find the perfect restaurant.
Yeah, that's a great point. And to that point, you know, being above the fold and making sure that you know customers see you when they open the app. What's the right amount of marketing spend on those third party delivery platforms for a restaurant?
You know, what's the right frequency is probably the right question, right, And the answer to that is always on. The algorithms will absolutely penalize you if you ever stop your marketing. So I've heard many restaurants say to me, look, even if I'm putting ten dollars on, it's better for me to keep the ten dollars on than to shut it off entirely. You know, and much like a brick and mortar restaurant launch, you will want to use the launch
period benefits well. So if you're about to launch a new concept, or even a new unit in a new location. It's important for you to have a high level of spend in those first thirty to sixty days, much like you would with your grand openings and everything else that
you'd do for a physical launch. In terms of the marketing spend on a platform, i'd also answer that in a slightly different way to one, in the sense that you should be looking for a ten x ro ass right, so you want to be making sure that you're you're getting at least that kind of level of return. I've seen some advocate and in terms of percentage of sales of five to eight percent of your sales to go
towards marketing. Andre Vena of doghouse is suggested ten per sent to me in the past, and I think the point is you need to have a view, you need to measure it, and if it's successful, you need to do more of it, and if it isn't, you need to do less. And the whole idea of recognizing that the restaurant industry now is fast becoming an e commerce industry will help you condition your mind in the right
way to be able to explore this. Because the restaurant marketing the cmos of restaurants and their makeup today is so so different to what they were ten years ago. And so this idea of ab testing, for example, which is a you know common practice in e commerce world is test different things until you see and improve and measure, you know, sit until you see the outcomes that get you to something that you're excited about. Because marketplace marketing
is performance marketing. You know, you're not trying to tell your brand story and build awareness here. It's about really those metrics. And the other thing I'd mentioned here is it's important to look at consistency. If you're a chain, you'll be amazed at how many of your locations have the wrong hours listed, or they have inconsistent hero photos listed, or even no photos against certain items, or maybe they're not even listed because they've been they turned themselves off
last night and they haven't switched themselves back on. There's a huge amount that can be done to just to optimize your footprint, regardless of the marketing spend that follows, and I'd highly encourage restaurants to focus on that first, even before getting into the marketing space.
That's great, and you know, speaking to being always on, I think that.
You know.
What I learned from your book is that that also was important when it comes to just being available on the marketplaces, right, there's penalties for thrattling. Correct.
Yeah, I think I haven't had this ever confirmed by the marketplaces, but I think it's an increasing concern for them. I mean, th had. We wrote an article for Nations Restaurant News in last summer and it was called why you Must Keep your Digital Doors Open. And the way I would put it is, imagine, Mike, you and I were to go out for lunch right now, and the owners of the restaurant shut the door in our face, and I didn't want to talk to us, and so therefore we weren't even able to come in, even if
the restaurant was busy. I mean, that would be an awful hospitality experience for us. But what typically happens is that you and I would be invited to maybe sit at the bar. They'd hand us a menu that'd give us an indication as to how long we'd have to wait for, and then empowers with the choice as to whether we'd want to do that or not. Right when you throttle, you're basically closing your digital doors you're basically saying to the customer, we're not even open for your business.
We don't even care about you. We don't necessarily are going to tell you when we're going to be back open again. You're not empowering the guests at all. And as you recall from the first book, we think third party marketplace customers in the large part are opportunities for you to gain new customers and to create that first impression.
So by actually throttling, you're losing the opportunity to give that impression, to get that first time customer in the door, to give yourself the opportunity to convert them to your first party platform eventually as well. And so regardless of whether you're being penalized on the marketplaces or not, I think it's an awful customer experience. Uh. The flip side of all this is that you are constrained in a restaurant.
You have a certain amount of capacity through pert and I think there's an increasing amount of focus now being placed, certainly through my friends over at Service Physics, trying to help restaurants figure out what is the capacity through but what is the total amount of orders that we can truly channel through this kitchen, and you know you're seeing, therefore, a change in the way in which the back of
house is being designed. You look to the way in which Chipotle now have you know, two makelines, one for the front of house, one for the off premise channels. You look at the way in which this happened in drive through back in the sixties and seventies, and how they recognize, Look, if we're going to really make this work, we're going to have to design a back of house that helps us be able to get someone to drive through and collect their order in a matter of minutes.
And now I think we're past the pandemic restaurants sort of realizing this delivery thing is here to stay. This is likely to be something like twenty thirty forty percent of our business, and so if we don't adapt our back of house operations to accommodate for that, then are we truly maximizing the throughput capability of our restaurant to service orders in the way our customers want to be serviced.
Yeah, it definitely seems to be here to stay. You know, the casual dining chains that we cover, they're all deliveries now starting to settle in at about double what it was pre pandemic, so I don't see customer demand going away anytime soon. The restaurant co op model was pretty interesting when I read your first book. Have more popped up since you since you wrote the first one, Not.
To my knowledge, doesn't necessarily mean that they haven't. I think restaurants have their own communities. They're not always the best to share. But John Siel's local group, who's we focused on in the first book. I think it's fascinating because you know, when you can have a model that succeeds in areas where perhaps the big marketplaces have focused their drive deployment elsewhere, or perhaps struggle to find the
necessary drivers. It definitely makes sense, and it's a way of being able to encourage restaurants to come to get other, utilize their polled resources, and support their local community. So i'd be I haven't heard of any I'd be surprised if it's the only one out there, but I think clearly it's a different type of business model.
Yeah, are there any other unique business models that can present the challenge to door dash and uber eats in the United States?
I don't know whether they can present a challenge to dowd Ash and uber is because I think it's about service in a different needs state, and doored ash and uber eyes have their role to play. But there are certainly other models that are emerging. We talk about the vertically integrated delivery kitchens in the second book, like cluster truck and UMI and go to kitchens, and they have a substantial economic advantage over the incremental model that we
refer to in the first book. And so therefore you know, we described them in detail in a chapter of the second book which is called the digitally native restaurant. And that whole concept is about how you think about if you were to redo the entirety of the business model, if you're to start from a blank sheet of paper and think about what a customer values, then you'd say, well, does the customer really value the cost of labor in this experience? Do they really value the cost of real
estate and the experience? Do they want better quality food? Do they want better prices? Do they want the delivery of this food to be better? And we can only look at the recent stata to say that the delivery
experience is not good today. And I think the answer to those questions would lead you to say, well, if you're starting from a blank sheet of paper, then having a business model where the entire operating system is shaped in such a way that allows you to be able to certainly reduce the real estate footprints and the costs, certainly reduce the labor and reinvest that back into better quality food at a better price, and be able to do it at an experiity manner. And I think that's
super enticing and super encouraging. Fact. In a recent article that we did, we actually wrote about the fact that we think the native restaurant could well be the fastest growing restaurant concept in the US that will follow after Fast Casual. It's obviously small right now that I don't know of any big chains that are doing anything like this, but there are certainly many players like Cluster Truck and
UMI that are making some great progress out there. And you know, Cluster Truck is one location in Indianapolis that's doing over eight million AUV through this type of model.
Wow, impressive. Why are we seeing so many loyalty program upgrades right now?
Yeah, Well, let me see, I have the way I've had to answer that. Look, I think we didn't have a chapter on loyalty in the second book. It kind of proliferates all the way through in different ways because ultimately, the understanding of a customer is something that I think
restaurants are starting to understand is super super important. The fact that you can get customer data in ways that you weren't really able to do before the world's of delivery were upon us is something that's in really powerful. So you think about the best restaurant experiences that we have, right, You think back to your favorite restaurant, Mike, and why
that was a great experience. And I think to an Italian restaurant near me, and you know, the guy that always serves my wife and I. He remembers our names, he remembers that we liked this particular bottle of wine. He knows about my wife's dietary preferences, and therefore he recommends things on the menu as a result, or comes up with a bottle of wine that we usually like. Right, And what an experience when you feel like you're that VIP. So you can only get that on a handful of occasions.
Not every restaurant waiter is always going to be treating you like that, But in a digital world, every customer where you have that customer data can be treated like that, and I think that's incredibly powerful. So what do I mean by that in answer to your question about loyalty program upgrades. Well, loyalty is far more than a punch program. It's far more than a discounting program. It's about giving your guests the type of experience that they want based
on their buying behaviors and their profile. And so Zach Goldstein at Thanks, I love his line. He always says, what if you were to treat what the top one percent of McDonald's customers to be able to have access to the McRib year round? All about if you were to take the Taco Bell customers and say, for the top one percent, they're invited to come to the headquarters and provide feedback and develop the next lto that's a way to treat loyalty in a way that would only
represent and resonate with the top one percent. Of course, there are going to be those that are more value orientated, and there are going to be those that are more
newness orientated that want to hear about the ltos. But all of these things are enabling restaurants to be able to say, if you understand your customer, if you're able to segment them appropriately, you can then give them the right mechanics they're going to drive them to increase their frequency, to increase their spend, and to recognize that because you know them, they want to know you, and they want to have an ongoing digital engagement.
Yeah, very cool. I think that's a lot more powerful than just giving somebody their tenth burger free or their eleventh pizza free or something like that. Can you talk a little bit about, you know, the rapid tech adoption that we've seen over the last few years and how that's impacting independent restaurants.
Yes, you know. The all it takes is standing in the middle of a conference exhibition hall and looking at a independent restaurant. So who perhaps has come to that this is there one a year that they go to and they look around and there's hundreds of vendors and they're going, where the heck do I start right there? It's this mire of confusion and complexity. There are lots of folks out there that's saying they have an only
one solution. There are lots of folks out there that say they have a very specific solution, and as a result of that, as an independent, you're coming in and thinking, all, right, now, I recognize I need to treat delivery, right. I recognize I've got to invest in technology. And I think what's happened through the pandemic is a lot of restauranting. You know, chains and independent alike have done a bit of a spray and pray strategy of just deploying their resources into
whatever technology was necessary to keep their doors open. And now they're looking at this and you know, a lot of the more established chains they're spending money maybe two to four percent of their sales on technology, fifteen to twenty different types of technology across their chain, and they're probably utilizing each one not thirty forty percent of its true capability, and they go, well, this doesn't make sense.
And of course, in this cost environment right now, there's probably a lot of CFOs asking their CEOs to say, well, we need to tighten our belts a little bit here. And that's exactly the same for the independent as well. And so the independent not only lacks the resource to have that level of spend, but they also don't necessarily have the capability and capacity to spend in understanding what this technology can do and how to fully utilize it.
And so the role I think here is for the technology companies to be better at being able to say who they service, what they offer, truly offer, how they differentiate from their competitors, and to be able to clearly articulate the way in which they support the restaurant be able to utilize their technology after the contract is signed.
You know, the very basis of the Path to Digital Maturity book that we've written is to help the independent look at where they're at, to find where they are on this path to digital maturity and say, focus in on that space. First, deploy your resource, deploy whatever capacity you've got on getting good at that particular area. And then once you've got to that place, and there's a whole bunch of worksheets and tips within the book, once you've got to that place, then move on to the next.
And at some point you might get to a point on this path to say, you know what, that's it for me. That's as far as I'm going to get. And that might mean that stunts your growth from that particular channel onwards, but at least you know that you've done as much as you can based on what you are able to do, and I think that's going to to get to a far more efficient use of an independent spend on technology. And it's also going to help them to recognize it's a marathon, not a sprint.
No, I guess. Kind of focusing back out on the larger picture again, I'd assume cheaper labor is part of it. But why are the delivery fees so much cheaper in China versus the United States?
Well, you're right, I mean, for sure, the cheaper labor is a big factor. When you look at also the way in which restaurants are located next to the public that they service. Density is a big part of it as well, right, So, I think for me the density factor we've touched on a little bit when we reference the UK as well, which doesn't have the cheap labor, but it certainly has the density of where its population is relative to the restaurants. But I think those two
combined are very much part of it. The other side of it is when you look at ELIME and mit on, the two primary aggregators in China, they are doing and have been doing a lot what stored Ash and uber eats are starting to get into as well, which is
multiple verticals, right. So when you go onto the apps, they'll have the WeChat integration, which is the communication device that everyone uses, like the WhatsApp in the US, and so everyone communicates through that, payment is done through that, but they also have through those apps the ability to use like an Expedia of Fandango. So there's multiple verticals
being supported through one interface. So in that sense, when you speak to people that have lived in China and have worked and used those apps, they say, it's just part of the way in which we engage with given services, and so I think that obviously drives efficiencies as well, because when you've got numerous different things being delivered and utilizing the logistics fleet to support, you're driving those economies
into the oval system as well. And that's one of the things that I think we're going to see over time when we look at how dawed Ash and uber eats need to try and drive better profitability back into their businesses, is how do we make logistics more efficient? And I think large part of that is about utilizing the available fleets of delivery in a more spread fashion as opposed to just during the peak day parts of when people are eating.
Yeah, it's interesting, all right. Can you touch on some of the ghost kitchen and virtual brand issues that we've been hearing a little bit about. You know, we've heard about Reef obviously with some issues. I was that Brinker's investor day last week, and they're gonna end their Maggiano's Classics virtual brand of the Maggiano stores. You know, was there just over investment over the last couple of years or is there something else going on in those business models?
Very timely subject, right, We've got obviously the next bite out to see three that's happened recently as well. So there's there's a lot of people coming out of the woodwork. I told you so these things were always destined to fail.
But look the bis I posted something yesterday. The bicycle launched in eighteen hundred and something, right, and the penny farthing came out seventy years later from its first the wooden bicycle, And today everyone's going around on these forty mile an hour electric bikes and it's like, Wow, how far has this thing come? And I think we're at the Penny Fathers the stage of this right now, right it's there.
It kind of makes sense. It gets me around, but it's not necessarily the most efficient way of us being able to transport ourselves. And in that sense, I think we're just in a place of innovation evolving. The terms ghost kitchens of virtual brands get interwoven unnecessarily. My position, ghost kitchens as the hardware and virtual brands are the software,
and they can operate interdependently of each other. You can have traditional brick and mortar brands operating out of a ghost kitchen, and you can have virtual brands operating out of a brick and mortar kitchen, right, so's they can work independently of each other. And certainly in the second book we reference the fact there are different types of models out there, different types of ghost kitchens that service
the needs of what you are after versus others. Same with virtual brands, right, And it's about trying to assess, for the restaurant standpoint, what do you need, what are your strengths, where are your opportunities? Because part of the challenge that's come with having so much money invested into not just ghost kitchens and virtual brands, but just general
restaurant technology in general. What's come with that is a huge level of expectation, you know, the founders and one now myself is we get this money, and we get this money and with then the promise of returns, and that means the expectations are set in such a way and that leads to large sales forces being developed very quickly, and as a result of that, the potential and the propensity I would argue for over selling and overpromising and
ultimately under delivering. And I think that's part of the challenge that has existed over the last few years, which I think, given the slightly tighter investment environment right now, is actually creating a better model for us. Right We're going to run better businesses now with the fact that there's less money around and we've got to create a
business model that works. And so I'm not saying that's necessarily the case with all Ghost Kitchen and virtual brand models, but when you think about the thing that has encouraged restaurants into working with the Ghost Kitchen, it's because it
seems too good to be true. So you're saying, this great idea that I've got for a food concept, I now can come in and pay a few thousand dollars rent and not have to deploy seven figure capital some I'm into developing my own brick and mortar restaurant, and everyone goes, well, that's fantastic, I'll do that. And what they've forgotten about is what we talked about earlier is that you still have to create brands that can resonate and reach the customer when you don't have any physical doors.
It's why the virtual brands out there that are succeeding, like the mister Beistsburger, that have the reach right, that have the presence through celebrities, they're the ones that still seem to be resonating and succeeding. You only need to look at Pinky Cole's venture Slutty Vegan, which you know she's not a celebrity as such, but she gets digital marketing.
She gets the importance of creating digital engagement. She recognizes the way in which if you create that connection in digital environments, you can create both a virtual and a physical relationship with your customers, which is why they're Texas launchries. Recently they had thousands of people queue up to get
their first taste of Texan Slutty Vegan. So I think part of it, the get rich quick mentality has been exposed, and I think there's been a lot that have realized that not every model works for them, and I think it's about trying to recognize that there is a place for them, but it's about making sure you make an informed decision so that the model works for you as well as for the operator.
Yeah, that's great. I agree. You know, just from a capacity utilization standpoint, right, like using a virtual brand to you know, in a kitchen that's being underutilized, or using a ghost kitchen to help alleviate pressure on a kitchen that's absolutely jammed on a Friday and Saturday night. I think there's always going to be a need for that. So it's going to be very interesting to see how it all shakes out. All right, great, so let's talk
about Juicer a little bit. Can you just talk I guess about how it got started and how you got affiliated with the team of Juicer.
Yeah. So Juicer came as a result of an idea from our chairman, Drew Patterson, who was the former CMO found a CMO over at Kayak and the CEO of jet Sets. So he came in from the travel e commerce space, and Ashvin our CEO, built a e commerce company in the hotel space as well, used to run e commerce for a global hotel chain. So the guys came really from seeing a lot of the marketplace challenges that hotels had to face and have almost seen the
playbook that restaurants are going through. It's kind of funny in a way because I always call them the claim they're going to tell They're always telling me about what's going to happen next, And you think about that, and then you see in which the ways in which our our flight tickets and our hotel rooms fluctuating price, Well, this has never happened in restaurants. You know. I posted something a few days ago about this little boy that was running a lemonade stand, and it's a TikTok video,
fun very amusing TikTok video. And there's people walking by and they say and they said, well, how much is the lemonade? And the little boy goes fifty dollars. They go, what fifty dollars? That's a lot. And the point by me referencing that is that if that little boy had taken the typical restaurant approach, he had taken the cost of the lemons, the cost of the water, the cost of the cups, the cost of the sugar, and come up with maybe a price after looking at what the
other kids are selling down the street. And then when the cost of lemons and the cost of sugar increase, he might increase his price, right, And that's the traditional way of how restaurants price their menus. It's why over the last year we've seen two or three blanket price increases happen across restaurant menus. But it's such a blunt instrument,
it really is. And so using demand based pricing, using data science to be able to understand that different products on a restaurant's menu have different levels of elasticity, and to be able to understand, based on the capacity stuff that we were talking about earlier, that at different times of the week, the restaurant's kitchen is at different levels
of stress. Isn't there an opportunity to say, well, the cheeseburger that's ten dollars on a Monday at three pm could potentially be ten dollars and fifty cents on a Friday at seven pm. And I want to emphasize that, at least with juicer. We put in some very specific constraints here, so we asked the restaurant, you know, what types of range are they comfortable with, and many of
them will say, you know, zero to twenty percent. So that means you don't get the tailor swift effect, right, so that when all the restaurants around them, or when you're going to a heat wave, you're not suddenly seeing that, you know, drinks prices are five hundred percent of the typical price. The point here, I think is is that you can use data, much like we are talking about with customers. You can use data to make more informed decisions around pricing your menus. And that's what our team
are doing. We take a suite of pos transactional data, we put that into our algorithm. Our algorithm is built by one of our other co founders who's built one of the leading dynamic pricing engines that supports the hotel industry. So we've kind of been there and know how these
things work. And then we take those prices, we deploy them, we measure them, we analyze them, we deploy them very gradually so you don't get stick a shock effect, and then we report back to the restaurants, So the restaurant doesn't actually have to get involved at all in really doing anything at all that they would otherwise have to do, because for us, it's a full service solution. I think what's helpful about this then is that if you deploy this in the right way, you can then optimize things
like promotions. You can optimize your e commerce presence. Right, you can understand, well, what if I want to drive volume at different times, what if I want to treat different customer segments differently in different ways, and what about if I want to use other data streams? You know, so our product over time is going to include weather specific events, delivery time raises, the ways in which customer
ratings play into this. In fact, Mike, I don't know where they told you this to you before, but you know, we did a survey of a thousand restaurants across fifteen different states in the US on Super Bowl Sunday and thought, you know, if ever there was a time for restaurants to change their price, this would be it. Do you know how many restaurants out of those thousands changed their price? Not one, not one, not one change of price. And it tells you that there's money on the table here,
So dynamic pricing I think is going to come. We're certainly going to see more volatility, but for us this is like two three price changes a day at max. So a lot of this is about just slowly get into this and using more data to make more informed
pricing decisions and taking money that's on the table. We're focused on off premise largely because the customers today are would you receive in dynamic prices, It's just it's coming through the delivery price, right, and so restaurants aren't benefiting a tool from that. So in that sense, we think the customer is going to be more accommodating and ultimately it's going to help restaurants optimize their off premise margins.
To yeah, maybe ease the customers into this whole dynamic pricing you know type of scenario. And I think it's it's really important. They talked about it that like twenty percent Governor on't it because I feel like, you know, customers could be taken aback in restaurant if the price increases are too much. What types of restaurants do you think dynamic pricing would work best for?
Well, certainly those at least for where our business model is right now that have off premise focus that have a certain amount because you want you have to allow the data to take you in the direction you wanted to go. So that needs to be a certain amount of volume, a certain amount of iterations of transactions to to get to a statistical relevance. So there is something about, you know, the volume that I think is critical, But beyond that, there isn't really a cuisine type that I
would say this is prevalent towards it price point. I think again it comes down to volume, right, So if your average tray value is ten dollars, then that's not going to work if you've got a million AUV. But if you're a Chick fil A, then why not right, so that it could work for them very well. The other way I would look at it is thinking about
how you can build the tray valley. Right, So maybe the entree prices don't change that much, but if you find there's a certain particular time of day where you're getting less attachment rate of beverages or desserts or appetizers, then maybe use that to reduce those ancillary items to build your tray value. Right, So there are different ways to approach it, and at the moment we haven't found a particular cuisine site that hasn't necessarily worked better or
worse than another. I think ultimately it's about trying to see what resins with customers and using that gradual approach to ensure that we don't create any stick of shock and no negative guest sentiment.
Yeah, very cool. You know, I'm interested to see what it could do, right in terms of maybe even in out the volume in a day, Maybe some more price sensitive customers could trade down from a dinner to like a mid afternoon discounted meal or something of that nature, and kind of maybe ease some pressures on the kitchen and stuff like that.
Nothing would please me more than to see the customers train themselves in this. I think it would be amazing. Imagine, imagine if restaurants are able to encourage their customers to recognize if they order ahead, they can get a bit more value. What if you could just move the order volume from six pm to five pm? And what that could do. If you treat a restaurant kitchen like a factory and think about it from that standpoint, then actually,
there's so much money on the table. I mean, in many ways going back to virtual brands, that's what the logic of you know, an ihop having a virtual brand doing things in the even and not during the breakfast rush. Right, So it's all of this is about how do you utilize and sweat the acid as best as you possibly can in the most optimal manner.
Awesome, man, Well, I'm gonna end it there. I could ask you questions all day once again, if you haven't the books delivering the digital restaurant, they're absolutely fantastic. And where can listeners find out more about Juicer? And where should where should they go to purchase the books?
I'm glad you asked the books. Well, if you support third party marketplaces, you can go to Amazon of course, where you can get a kindle me read you the book on audible or how back paperback. If you'd like to find out more about Juicer, hook me up on LinkedIn, but also go to juicerpricing dot com. We'd love to hear from you and listen to about your stories about how you price and how we can perhaps help all.
Right, good stuff, Thanks again for doing this, and thanks to all the listeners. Have a good day, everybody
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