Satya Nadella describes how lessons from Microsoft’s history apply to today’s boom - podcast episode cover

Satya Nadella describes how lessons from Microsoft’s history apply to today’s boom

Nov 18, 20251 hr 19 minEp. 19
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Summary

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella explains the company's AI strategy, focusing on diffusing intelligence within the enterprise by improving data architecture and developing "AI factories." He shares insights on his management style, the importance of developer relations, and the future of user interfaces. Nadella also reflects on lessons from the internet tidal wave and the dot-com bubble, distinguishing the current AI CapEx cycle, and introduces the vision for agentic commerce, where AI enhances discovery and transaction experiences.

Episode description

Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft, sits down with John to discuss the diffusion of AI inside the enterprise. He explains why “all your data at your fingertips” is the evergreen pitch, why this AI CapEx cycle is different from the .com bubble, and his vision for "agentic commerce". They also cover Microsoft's product bundling strategy and how he "wanders the virtual corridors" of Teams to run the company.


Links


Timestamps

(00:00) AI adoption in the enterprise
(07:47) How Satya runs Microsoft

(13:45) New UIs

(20:44) Microsoft tackling the early internet

(25:58) Are we in a bubble?

(31:35) Data sovereignty

(38:10) Excel

(42:01) Agentic commerce

(52:45) AI brand loyalty

(59:44) Product bundling

(01:08:18) Microsoft’s culture

(01:12:12) The law of very large companies

(01:16:20) What’s in the water in Hyderabad?


Transcript

AI adoption in the enterprise

Satya Nadella took over as Microsoft CEO in 2014, but he's been with the company for more than 30 years and has seen a lot. Microsoft has grown by 10x in the time that Satya has been running it, and he's credited with Microsoft's success, first in cloud and now in the AI boom. Cheers, John. That was great. So what should people be excited about as Ignite? The Ignite conference for us, more than anything else, is about making sure that

AI is getting diffused inside of the enterprise. I mean, if there is one thing It's more about, hey, what does it mean not to just admire somebody else's AI factory or AI agent, but how to build your own AI factories. Organizing the data layer turns out to be probably the most complicated thing, which spans.

the enterprise such that it can meet the intelligence. That's the stuff that I think we'll probably do a lot of. We still don't really have deep research in a corporate context. We do. That's what Copilot is about. But most people day-to-day do not have this. So are they just underusing AI that exists? In fact, it's interesting you brought that up because to me, that is the killer feature, right? So the biggest thing we did was we took this graph. 아

That is underneath what is what I think is the most important database in any company, right? Which is underneath your email, your documents, your Teams calls, what have you. It's the relationships that, by the way, people are not working. in an ad hoc fashion, in an unstructured way, but they're all doing it in relation of some business event. That semantic connection is in people's heads and it's lost. And for the first time,

there's much better recall of that. Why do you think this is underpenetrated than the enterprise? Because I feel like people are using lots of, you know, LLM tools. They are uploading individual documents, maybe. But I don't think most companies have the all-singing, all-dancing... all of the company's context is plugged into their everyday AI. Yeah, in fact, I would say there are two sets of things. One, it's starting, right? I mean, you know, I always say...

at least compared to anything we have done in terms of all the office suites over our history, this is the fastest in that sense. Because it's change management. At the end of the day, you've got to get it in. People have to use it. Oh, by the way, in the enterprise setting,

It has got to mean all e-discovery has to work. All of the data governance has to work. We have had to plumb this purview into co-pilots such that anytime I'm trying to retrieve something that's confidential, it's labeled confidential. it's IRM and so on. So there's been significant amount of work and that I think is where we're starting to see the uplift. The other thing I'd say is, it's one thing to do, we have it work across the Microsoft 365 graph, right?

But then the next thing is, oh, what about your ERP system? The connectors kind of work, but they don't. really because they're too thin straws, right? You just need a much better data architecture where you have to essentially semantically embed all of these into one layer. Okay. There's been a vision. for decades of your company's data at your fingertips. My favorite example of this is I really like the book Software on the history of Oracle.

And it talks about Larry Ellison doing EBCs. I think they're talking about one in Japan in the 1990s. So it's the late 1990s. And he is pitching executives on all your company's data in one place. Part of the reason this is an evergreen pitch...

is because companies don't actually have all their data at their fingertips. Companies do not eat their data infrastructure vegetables. And the pitch to executives is always, you can go answer your questions yourself at the touch of a button, as opposed to sending a request to an analyst who goes and does it.

investigation for you. Will we finally this time eat our data plumbing? You can push back on the premise, but that's my question. No, I think that, in fact, I think if I'm not mistaken, Bill coined this term. uh information at your fingertips at a comdex speech i think in in the 90s that's right yeah and that is kind of where you know and so we

And for the longest time, Bill was always obsessed about, like he felt that, in fact, I remember him distinctly saying this in the 90s, which I picked up in one of the reviews I was in as a junior guy sitting around. And he said, there's only one category in software. It's called information management.

You've got to schematize people, places, and things, and that's it. You don't have to do anything more because all software... And that was the dream Bill always had, which is he wanted, like, for example, he hated file systems because they were unstructured. He would have loved it if everything was a SQL database. And he could just do SQL queries and program against all information. Like that to him was like an elegant solution to information in your fingertips. The problem is people are messy.

And even if data is structured, it sort of is not truly available in one index, right? Or one SQL query that I can run against, all of that. So that has been the fundamental challenge of the old world I would say. I would have not thought, none of us thought that somehow this AI thing and a deep neural network at some scaling will suddenly become the thing that figures out the patterns, right? Not some schematized data model, right? In fact, one of the longest time we used to always obsess

about, oh, how complex do the relationships have to be, or the data model needs to be to capture the essence of an enterprise, right? And it turns out... It's lots of parameters in a neural network with a lot of compute power. Dworkesh talks about this really smart remote employee who started five minutes ago, getting at the point that the models can be arbitrarily smart. And they can do RAG, and they can have access to everything. your enterprise, but it's not quite the same as...

the model actually knowing something as a model. And so the models, unless you train custom models inside your company, cannot actually get smarter at what it is that you do. And the thousandth query is not any smarter than the first.

Where do you think that goes? I think there are two things there. I mean, I think if I understand his thing, it's all about in-context learning or continual learning. I mean, that's sort of the ultimate thing. And it sort of speaks to the thing I was saying, which is... If you kind of have the model's cognitive core separated from its knowledge, then you have essentially the continual learning formula, so to speak, or the algorithm, and then you just unleash it.

At least there are three things to me that are outside of the model at runtime that I think you kind of have to.

crack, right? One is memory and all forms of memory, right? Short, long, right? Even like these big challenges of, you know, humans are great at long-term credit assignment, right? Which is how does... intuitively, like somebody said to me, hey, the day, you know, AI models can both reward and remember that you, you know, how to punish for some mistake because they have the ability to do long-term credit design.

I mean, that's when you'll know they have real memory. But in any case, memory is one. The second one is entitlements, right? So which is they have to really respect all of the permissioning system. at runtime, right? Because this is where, because there are roles, what access do I have? And so the model needs to meet that. And then the action space all has to work. So if you bring those three things, because after all, that's the environment. So if I have action.

entitlements, and memory with these models. And they, by definition, have to be outside of the model, but be built into the model. And I think that's... So, for example, on Copilot today, you use OpenAI models, you use even Cloud. I need the system to work across both of those. That I think is where the frontier has to move to. Yes. I've been more AI questions, but I want to ask you some questions about your way of working.

How Satya runs Microsoft

What does your day-to-day look like? And in particular, how are you managing by walking around? virtual corridors are you wandering to just get a sense for what's going on on Microsoft? What are your customer engagements actually look like just for a normal day, not earnings or not a board meeting or something? Interestingly enough, my normal day... It's the two ends of it, which is the customer stuff.

There's not a day that I would say I'm not having. Many of them are remote. I mean, there's Teams calls for me most of the day, at least two or three of them with some customers. It's sort of the most helpful way for me. to stay most grounded, I would say. So I have at least one or two of those each day. And then I'd say there is a lot of meeting time.

You know, as a CEO, one of the things I've recognized is there are two types of meetings, right? One meeting is where I'm just supposed to convene and, you know, keep my mouth shut because convening was the real thing. It is like don't overperform and just sit and because all the work would have either happened or will happen after. But so that's kind of one. And then the other meeting, which are the important meetings where I do need to learn or I need to make a decision or communicate.

something. So meetings is another spot. Then I must say it's kind of like all over for me, Teams channels, right? I am lingering around Teams channels and they're most helpful. In fact, if anything... I learn the most there. I meet most people there. So, wandering the halls, I wish I could tell you that is the form. But I think Teams is the new wandering the halls, right? Looking around those channels. 100%.

The most beautiful thing is for me to be able to, that's where I make the most connections, right? I get to know, wow, here's the person working on Excel agent. Oh, that's the eval that they're looking. I mean, I learned so much out of it than anything else I've done.

So are teams at Microsoft just working away on their product and then Satya pops up and, you know, has a question on their product? Some of it. Like, I wish. They give a little yell. I wish, yeah. Well, I wish. You know, sometimes I feel like we are way too permissioned. You know, I wish I had more access sometimes. In fact, my biggest complaint is that I can't drop it everywhere I want to.

But yes, it's fun to be able to just go in there. And it sort of normalizes it. And then people are also like, today's workforce is not shy of sharing their opinion with you. I've noticed, yeah. You are famous, at least in small corners of the valley, speaking of being methodical, for staying very connected to what's going on in tech here. And...

I remember you came and visited the Stripe office. Remember that one in the mission? Yeah, when we were a pipsqueak company. I mean, we were probably right after you took over as CEO, I'm guessing. But Stripe was very small and Microsoft was very big. Actually before. I think the first time I came to your offices was when I was running Azure first. Okay. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Okay, so it was even before that. So that would have been very early in Stripe's journey.

Why do you think you do this much more than most other CEOs? Because other CEOs should want to meet all the startups too. I've always grown up in some sense. I grew up even in a Microsoft, which had, I have that. Developer relations, evangelism sort of gene in me. I kind of approach, I think, a lot of it as, hey, if you don't follow developers, there are two sort of things that are ingrained in me. One is if you don't follow where developers are going.

knowing it's hard to sort of be relevant in terms of tech platforms. And then you really need to understand the new workload in order to build a tech platform. Those are the two things that at least I've kept. And so therefore, the only way, if you're not following... Startups, it's very hard to know what is either the platform or the workload. So that's sort of a thing that I've indexed towards. The other thing is it's just, you know, I derive so much energy out of it. I mean, I've always...

thought founders are just magical people who create something from nothing. I mean, it just sort of feels like a magic trick. So I always think, how the heck does one do that? It's funny you say that about following what the startups are doing. We always conceived of...

what Stripe was building as it was important to build for startups both because today's small startups are tomorrow's public companies and we've seen that again and again on Stripe but we just felt at an intuitive level and we felt this before we could prove it that what the startups were interested in were often better product experiences. And so if the startups want stable coins or usage-based billing or what have you,

We should build for those needs, not just because we'll have a good startup business, but the enterprises will come around. And it took us, I would say, many years to kind of prove... out that model, but now we're really seeing... In fact, I think you guys are a bit of a gold standard on that. In fact, one of the things that I learned from you guys was...

that idea, rediscovering at some level what Microsoft was very good at, which is following the developer, being where the startups are. And so that's what sort of led me even to GitHub and NAT and all of the rest, which is... To some degree, the GitHub asset, right? Obviously, it is a great asset. We needed to, one, be good stewards of an open source ecosystem. Yes.

also the place where every startup, like the one thing that everybody does have is their repos in GitHub. And I felt like, hey, being in that loop was important for us, not just, oh, it's strategically great to have some. position there to learn. Simply. And to build better product, I think is sort of well said, because you lose sometimes the aesthetic of what is required. What's that friction-free way to deliver? Because the least amount of patience is there, and the time...

value, for example, has to be maximized. Is Microsoft thinking about

New UIs

generated UIs that are personalized. Like when you think about it, software is stuck in the old paradigm of, you know, we write a bunch of software and it goes to gold master and it goes out on disks. And now that same kind of software is delivered in the cloud. the UI you want is probably, we can render that exact UI in real time. Is that a direction you guys are going? I think for sure. At some level,

What's happening is on one side, our ability to generate, I mean, if you sort of say you can generate all code, so therefore you can generate some UX scaffolding around anything that's a lot more custom, right? So especially, in fact, for the... longest time, one of the things at Microsoft was, what's the difference between a document, a website, and an application, really? And so, to some degree, yeah.

Exactly. So you can generate any one of those at any time, depending on what format you want to present it. But at the same time, interestingly enough, for all the talk of, hey, all these apps go, take even our good old IDEs. In some sense. IDEs are back, whether it's Excel or VS Code, because the reality is AI generates output.

I need to make sense of that output. In fact, I need a fantastic editor that lets me do diffs and iterations on it with AI. So the IDE, I think, in fact, one of the most exciting. things is new classes of highly refined IDEs that have even a sort of a telemetry loop with the intelligence layer, but also they kind of act more like heads-up displays, right? I have thousands of agents going off. How am I going to... makes sense of the micro steering of thousands of agents. Right. And that.

is what IDEs slash inboxes and messaging tools will be, right? Which is, I'm not messaging one, you know, or dealing with triage the way I deal with it today, but it's going to be different. Okay, interesting. So you think right now, programmers spend all their time in an IDE. but they're one of the few professions that

does that, and your vision is the accountant IDE, the lawyer IDE? What is the metaphor of how I will work with agents? So it's kind of like massive macro delegation. So there's lots of agents I go and give a bunch of instructions to. go off and work sometimes for hours, days, let's say, as the models get better. But they are checking in, and so it's macro delegation, micro steering. So if you take that,

How does one do micro-steering with context, right? It can't come back like, it can't be in the next notification hell, right? Which is, it sort of notifies me. It has like five words. I don't know exactly what the real context is or what have you.

That, I think, is where, and that has to be multi-app-like, right? So that's where I feel like all software, finally, when it grows up, it looks like an inbox and a messaging tool and a canvas with a blinking screen, except this time around, a lot of work got. Is that one app? Is that 10 different apps? It's kind of interesting. If you think about the productivity suite that emerged, there was three...

big apps in Word, Excel, and PowerPoint. But it's interesting that that number was not one and was not 40. It was three. And so how do you think about this? I think that's right. I mean, to me, it will be a few. I think. And in fact, the reductionist person in me says, man, they'll be the same things, except the job they do is going to be different. Because I think a table...

at least at the human level, right? Because we can all talk about what tools will agents use to communicate with each other, right? That's a different thing, right? Right now, for the RL loop, they are simulating our production environment. But they will ultimately be more efficient in creating their own production environments to kind of RL themselves. But let's just leave that aside. But in order to communicate with us, I feel like...

we have discovered some good things that we like. We like spreadsheets and tables and we like documents in sort of linear form. We like inboxes or messaging tools. So these are like reasonable. eyes. Except the question I think you asked is, how does this thing have, when it shows up in an IDE with a set of changes,

you have to help me more than just say, okay, now here is a file, go to that file. Like that directed plan, not just to execute, but for me to do my workflow. One of the things that we are experimenting with is mission control. and GitHub Copilot is that, which is The idea is you go have five, six different branches in which you fire off all these autonomous agents. They all do their work. They come back. And then your ability to do PR triage is where I think the next IDE is born.

I'm struck by in technology how frequently you see the pattern of excitement for and a vision around a technology being so much earlier than... the technology actually being ready. Like the movie, 2001, A Space Odyssey, which was in the 60s, that was a voice-activated AI with tool use capabilities. And it just took 50 years. And then people were excited about the

idea that you could speak to your computer and text-to-speech, speech-to-text. People were excited about that in the 80s, and only now. I don't know if you use Super Whisper or anything like that, but it's really... It's finally really good, but it wasn't good three years ago, 40 years after the vision. Yeah, it's crazy that you bring that up. In fact, I still...

have an apartment right next to the Microsoft campus, that old campus, and I was working on interactive television. This was in 94. The information superhighway. That's right. There are multiple things that are stunning. My management chain was Rick Rashid, who... who reported to Craig Bundy, who reported to Nathan Merwold, and there was Bill Gates. And I was thinking, man, that's a lot of IQ. And of course, we all missed the internet. That was the only thing that happened.

I had interactive television, switched ATM, I think, to my home. Yeah. In my apartment. So I remember doing this demo. One of the high stakes things I did as a young guy at Microsoft was a demo of our first redundant file system, which was the video server. where John Malone was the one who came and sort of

Bill was sort of saying, hey, here's the future of interactive television. And guess what? It's even great because the disc can go, you know, haywire and still stream. And so my job was to remove the disc drive and have the stream continue. But we built. essentially a distributed file system and a streaming server.

and had an ATM switch network to the house, and I had like five movies I could watch, and I watched them all multiple times. Okay, so I want to ask you about this, because I've thought a lot about this, and you're the perfect person to ask, which is Microsoft...

Microsoft tackling the early internet

saw the internet future that was coming in the 90s. And in particular, the famous Bill Gates internet tidal wave memo said, The Internet is the one big thing Microsoft needs to focus on. It wasn't like we're not thinking about the Internet. It wasn't that it was priority number seven of 15. It was like, hey, guys, listen up. The only thing Microsoft should be thinking about is the Internet. But...

The vision for the internet at the time was this information superhighway, which was subtly different from the internet because the thinking was, and it was very sensible thinking, no one has internet to the computer in their home. Like a lot of people don't have a computer in their home. So what people do have is a TV.

have is cable, which is a high bandwidth connection. And so we're going to do these set-top boxes on the TV, and that is how people will use the internet. Like, paying a huge amount of attention to this coming wave, pretty sensible, well-thought-out solution.

And yes, not the right approach. And so obviously bring that up in the context of the giant AI. Like, what should one take away from that? See, if I look at even my interpretation, it'd be actually interesting. I've not spent as much time talking to Bill about that. But I felt they were at least, as someone, as sort of an entry-level employee at that time even, my reading of history was that we...

We kind of got the internet, but we didn't because we wanted to deliver. Remember the quality. I don't think we believe that TCP IP would work. All right. I mean, at some level, the information highway. When I look at what we were trying to do was, man, this quality of service is a thing, this TCP IP, it just is not going to work. And so therefore, we were competing against AOL on dial-up and even that sort of...

So you remember, MSN was an X.25 network, the first version of it. But that's when Bill pivoted, right? So the thing that Bill did was... In 95, I guess. In fact, it's funny that Windows 95 was launching. And then he says, you know what? It's all going to change. So I feel between 92, which is when I think all of us maybe got our first.

Demo, right? 93 November is when Mosaic, right? I think something like that. And so we all, you know, we're kind of dancing around it. So from 93 to 95, there was that two-year period where it was unclear whether this was going to be the protocol and the full stack, and the stack emerged. And by 95, it was clear, and then we pivoted.

Interesting. Okay, so just at that time, it wasn't actually clear that the open internet would win. Yes. And in fact, there's one more lesson that the interesting thing that I've always watched, because I think we can parlay this into AI. One is to get the paradigm right. Yes. then it's not clear, even if you get the paradigm right, that you may not get what is the killer app or even the business model. That's always been the case, which is with the internet.

Who would have thought that, you know, for the open web... an organizing layer would be one proprietary or one network effect search engine, right? Because the organizing layer of the web, you know, I always say, like, there's no such thing as the open web. There's the Google web. just because they just dominated it. Should one reflect on the fact that maybe there was some motivated thinking around our proprietary solution?

the Liberty Media Microsoft joint venture will win, whereas the open web is what won. You should maybe caution. organizations where if they're following two possibilities, our information superhighway proprietary system or the open web, companies will somehow have... happy thinking towards the proprietary solution. I think the way, when I look back again, it's interesting, right? So AOL and MSN kind of lost out, let's call it, to the open web. Except...

They were replaced by new forms of AOL and MSN. They're called search engines. They're called app stores. The mobile web, in fact, is fascinating. The open web was a moment in history. A moment in history. And so the thing that... But maybe the meta thing for me is organizing layers will always emerge even in an open ecosystem. And a lot of the...

category power moves to that organizing layer. And it's always unclear. Like the last paradigm of, well, this last time it was search engines. Today, it's chatbots. Is it? How long-lasting is that? No one knows. But it's definitely today. I mean, chat GPT. success cannot be denied in terms of

what it means as an aggregation point. Marketplaces slash app stores have been a thing. What comes next? What happens to e-commerce in an agentic marketplace or an agentic commerce? I think these are the interesting.

things that need to be litigated. Well, I want to talk about that and I want to talk about commerce, but actually first, while we're on the topic of, while we're still in the 90s, everyone is making comparisons to the dot-com bubble right now. It's almost a cliche. And I think it's actually a reasonable...

Are we in a bubble?

comparison, you know, it's cliche for a reason, which is it is a very CapEx intensive build out for a new paradigm that is in fact a big deal. And yet there's an awful lot of CapEx. You were there. at Microsoft during the 2000.com bubble. And it really was, Microsoft's share price peaked in the late 90s, early 2000s, and then didn't surpass it until 2016, I want to say.

What did it feel like in 1999? In particular, did you know you were in a bubble or was it like, oh, this is the new, this time it's different? It's interesting, yeah. In fact, I remember, I think we probably became the largest market cap company in 2000. We crossed G, I remember that.

You know, we were capital light, let's say, right? That time around, it was like, I guess I was more like Sam at that time, which is somebody else's capital was being spent. It is quite honestly, when I look back at it. At that time, too, the financial cycle aside, it was clear, the secular trend was clear that...

This is going to, because even by then, the business models were also emerging, right? Even for Microsoft, the biggest lesson at that time was, oh my God, like even our first order play. Oh, we've got to build a browser. We've got to build a web server. We've got to have internet protocols everywhere. We had a website builder inside of office with front page. We did all the obvious things.

But we realized that just doing the obvious things didn't make sense. We needed to reinvent what we were doing, plus one of the new business models was clear. So in an interesting way, that cycle... kind of came out of nowhere. I mean, it came out of what was just, you know, whatever, rational exuberance or what have you. But the correction, in some sense, washed away.

a bunch of stuff, but I would say the ideas persisted. Totally. Right? And so to me, I think about what's happening here. I mean, there are two things, right? The infrastructure itself that's getting laid out. I think it's got a lot more... More immediate. It's not like even the gestation period of, okay, I built a dark fiber, which some internet company will first scale to a billion users and use. Yes. So it lines out the door to buy this stuff. Exactly.

So this time around, quite frankly, we are behind. When I look at our infrastructure build and demand today, that's the thing that when people say there's a bubble. When I look at my earnings, when was the last time I was so supply constrained? on PowerShell. I haven't heard that comparison before, which is, let's not forget that the dot-com bubble, which again was a telecoms bubble, it was a fiber bubble in a big way.

Like it was dark fiber. It was dark. It was not lit up yet. And this is anything but dark fiber. It's not like any one of us is sitting there and saying, hey, I have all the GPUs wired up and nobody's using them. I don't have a utilization problem. I may have a PUE. I mean, I want higher utilization because it's mostly because it's memory bottleneck or what have you. But that is a different... There is not a thing that I have that's not sold out. In fact, my problem is...

I got to bring more supply. And in that, will we perfectly get it? No one does, right? There's no supply chain operation that perfectly matches demand and supply. But this time around, the build out. given the long lead. For example, one of the things we study a lot is even when we talk about our capital, we try to describe it even to the street. Hey, you've got to remember these assets. Some of these assets are 20 years.

Some of these things are four years or five years. And in fact, you kind of have to make the decisions on those things differently, right? Having a cold shell that's unused is nothing. Yeah, it's kind of like having a campus with five buildings. It's not sort of going to be a problem on Microsoft's balance sheet. What is a real problem would be, hey, not having warm shells that we can kind of light up.

Where is the bottleneck these days? Is it electricians? Is it shells? Is it turbines? Yeah. The product that is the bottleneck is just a bunch of powered up shells. Right. So if I don't have enough shells that are powered that I can then roll in my racks and then make them operational. And that's the long lead part, right? Which is you kind of have to have the land permits, the power permits, get all that done in time. And by the way, location, right? So...

I think one of the things that's glossed over, of course, stateside, United States, we're building a lot. But we have to build all over the world. And there are data regulations, in fact, more every day. People care about sovereignty in a major, major way. And so therefore, for us, we have to make sure that the fleet is a global fleet, a fleet.

that kind of can deal with all types of workloads, training to data gen to inference. And so it's sort of complex multivariable thing. Who should care about data sovereignty? Where Ireland-

Data sovereignty

has a bunch of data centers, but is not particularly wound up on the idea that data should only be in Ireland. And I don't think it should be super wound up about that fact. But I guess, do you guys... just go with whatever the country wants or do you try to advise on whether you should want data sovereignty or not and who should? Yeah, so I think it's obviously

a topic that's top of mind for pretty much every country, every policymaker, and they care. And there is obviously real legitimate reasons. The thing that I would say in the AI age, I'm now thinking a little bit differently even about sovereignty. What I mean by that is... The ultimate sovereignty question is more of the, what's the future of a corporation, right? Like, I mean, if you sort of start by, you know, if you go to the core of the Coase theorem, you say, wow, what the heck?

If the model is the thing that knows everything. Why do I even, like, I'm supposed to have some tacit knowledge that makes the transactional costs inside my organization lower than just being in the marketplace. So that's a... They're mind benders. So in fact, one of the ways I think is the sovereignty that matters is your company's sovereignty in an age where there are continual learning, increasing returns to a model. So I'm increasingly thinking that, hey, company's ability.

to have that intelligence layer that's a scaffold or even weights embedded in the model. So it's not somebody else's foundation model. It's about, do you have sovereignty in your foundation model? So my new concept is the future of a company is... that company has its own foundation model that captures essentially the tacit knowledge that makes the transactional costs of how knowledge gets accrued and diffused inside the organization faster. So that's sort of...

a long speech on sovereignty. There's two versions. That's very interesting. The idea that AI maybe just changes the nature of companies. You're saying that if companies, some companies are already collections of IP, right? You know, Disney or, which is Dave Ricks from Eli Lilly here. That is an IP company in a big way. And some companies already collections of IP, but right now that IP is in all the emails and documents and people's heads, most importantly, whereas maybe the...

IP could be in a single model over time. Where I thought you were going to go with that is just maybe the... People point out a lot that current companies are modeled after manufacturing companies and Alfred Sloan type stuff, despite the fact that we're doing knowledge work today and not running a little manufacturing line. And you get more just...

weird-looking companies? Do you get the famous really tiny billion-dollar company? Do you get more highly distributed internet companies? Do you get some DAOs? I thought that's where you're going to go with that. I think that those are also possibilities. So the structure itself could change.

And it's going to be more possible for, you know, whatever the few, you know, the one-person, billion-dollar company, what have you. That may could happen or DAOs could happen. But the interesting question, at least for me, is... Where does tacit knowledge reside? Clearly, it resides in people's heads, and it's the classic know-how that accrues and compounds.

think it will also reside and compound as weights in some lower layer that is unique to your company. Yeah. So that's kind of my, so in fact, I feel like, hey, you know, the new intellectual property at Eli Lilly or at Microsoft or at Stripe, at some point can be also, besides all the humans, besides all the other artifacts we have.

I think we will also say, oh, they are in some embedding. Yes. Okay, it's funny you say this because Stripe is interesting because it does not really have strong network effects as a company. When we started building up Stripe, is very much a single-player API experience, and we make it easy to start using Stripe. But ultimately, you'd never know that anyone else was using Stripe. What's happened as we've scaled up is we now just have a trust network where we can prevent fraud.

by virtue of the fact that we've seen most internet users and so we have a knowledge for what good and bad looks like and even the fact that we haven't seen you before is inherently a little bit suspicious because we've seen most people. And so it becomes a reputation network, kind of like ReCAPTCHA for Google. It simply became kind of a reputation network. Anyway, what we're now...

doing is training a payments foundation model where we're using all the data that we have in the Stripe network and you have a much larger, more capable model taking into account. So anyway, we are trying to do exactly what you're saying. And so one of the questions for all of us who have, so then how do you... from sort of essentially leaking over to the base foundation model.

Is it just like one capability hop away because it learned how to even do fraud detection? Is it just some other multidimensional or not? And that, I think, is the key question, right? To me... I think we... There are two arguments, right? One argument is it's that, you know, argument that, hey, the models are going to eat the world. Yes. You can kind of easily say, oh, yeah, after all, everything is just a pattern and I'll learn it all and what have you. So, but then...

The thing, though, is you could, to your point about Stripe, can take multiple models, build this unbelievable sort of, I'll call it fraud detection layer that is, you know, model forward.

And then there is this memory and tools used and action space that's all unique to Stripe. That, to me, is the future of a corporation, whether it's a pharma company, a payments company, or a software company. That, I think, is the... work uh that we all are doing and will do and i i think that that's to me that is sovereignty right i'm still thinking about this discussion we're having about

the IDE for people who aren't software engineers. And again, I feel like there could be a product in the next 10 years for finance people, where in hindsight, it is obviously the correct UI. But just like the spreadsheet, kind of came out of nowhere as a UI. It may feel like it came out of nowhere at that time. Speaking of the spreadsheet, it's like a rite of passage for certain software companies to try to take on Excel.

Excel

It seems to be doing pretty well 40 years in or what have you. Why is it so durable? Yeah, it's unbelievable, right? I mean, at some level, you know, the idea... that a tabular form, I mean, I think it's the power of lists and tables. It's just a perfect, and the malleability.

of software, right? That was, I think, the combination. So I think that's where the, what's the durability of a, that's why a blinking canvas, right? It's sort of like, it's always going to be there. You may add lots of bells and whistles to it. And the same thing with spread. The other thing about the spreadsheet is it's Turing complete, right? I mean, that's the-

the other, you know, we sort of don't give it enough credit. It's like, I can make it do everything. I think it's the world's most approachable programming environment. 100%. I mean, it's kind of like, you know, and you get into it without even thinking you're programming. And that is the other beauty, right? She's like, you know, like...

AI still mystified it. You and I talked about, oh, my God, we need change management. When spreadsheets came, nobody talked about change management. They were just using it, right? And that, to me, is the other thing, which is, you know, like somebody was describing to me.

meeting the CEO of Generali. He joined Generali during the fax machine era, and he was managing all their insurance agents. And he said to me, like, look, I still remember the day when email showed up, Excel showed up, and the entire workflow of how things happen completely were upended and evolved and changed, ground up.

And so to me, I think that that's, to your point, what are those things of this era that will discover that will allow the ground up re-litigation of the work, the work artifact and the workflow? It's such an interesting time to be in software. I mean, compared to... You must feel this. Like, it's just a much more interesting time now than five or ten years ago. You know, it is interesting, right? Because what happened was we were like...

You know, cloud, cloud, cloud. Yes. And, you know, if you had to ask me what was the hottest thing in, you know, 2019... We had built this fantastic multi-region or region-less database that was multi-format, right? Cosmos DB, which was like, ah, we had, you know, basically a JSON database. We had, oh, we... we had a SQL in there. It was the everything database and we were thinking, oh, and there's region less and blah, blah, blah. And then the pandemic happened.

And then cloud went into another hyperdrive. I mean, Teams, thank God, just became like the thing. And then, so that was the exciting thing. And lo and behold, you come out of it and you sort of say, oh, I thought, oh, after the pandemic, we're going to get to some stable state. In fact, I remember a forecast of the cloud. You know, we were saying, what do we do? We overbuilt during the pandemic. And there was a good eight months where we were, oh, and then this thing now has come through.

There's a lot of charts of the shape of Stripe, I don't know if it was the shape of Microsoft, where... Obviously, March 2020, you saw this discontinuity, right? Much more e-commerce activity happening and we saw the rate of online business creation because you had businesses that were offline only saying, oh, we got to switch to selling online.

And it just stayed at that elevated level forever. Obviously, it's gone up from there. But there was no matching decline as people went back into physical offices and things like that. It was just a step... and that it stayed at the elevated level forever. I'm sure you saw similar things in Azure and things like that. It never came down. We're talking about commerce, so we might as well talk about what we're working on together. We're very excited about it. I mean, I think the idea that...

Agentic commerce

has always been there, which is, what's the best way for a merchant-friendly set of rails? And... what is a customer-friendly set of rails, right? Is there a perfect matching? Conversational sort of commerce is a thing that people have talked about. And now I think with the work that you all have done and others have done, we kind of can...

and really bring the merchant and the end user and have this agentic sort of experience. So it's early days. It has to be tastefully done. It has to be done in a way that you earn the user's trust. And so I'm very excited about it. Yeah, we see two differences here because there have been previous attempts, as you know, buying on Twitter or buying on Instagram and, you know, these kinds of things. But what's different here is, one,

You have AI. So all the integrations for the merchant are much easier. It's much less of a lift than previous times when things like that, this have been tried. But then secondly, I just think the... experience is so compelling as an end user. We're already seeing this in the early data from the super early customers that we have. We launched a few weeks back in ChatGPT as well.

just, it has to work. And again, the data is already bearing that out because it's so much easier as an end customer. Yeah, I've been talking about it like, you know, I'm a bit of a cricket nut. So I kind of, I'm always searching for something. And, you know, the problem is, you know, whether it's Amazon or Walmart or what have you, the search experience sometimes is hard on the site.

So interestingly enough, these chat experiences first are fantastic, right? And the fact that they point back to the catalog. I mean, the catalog is still king. Yes. But now if I can marry the checkout and the catalog, and that to me is where... I think the seamlessness. Well, Anne, do you have any experiences? I have my own versions of this. I'm curious if you've had experiences where, for product research,

using an AI app is so much better than keyword-based search. It's amazing that up to last year, we thought keyword-based search was an acceptable way to hunt for anything. And the bottom line is, It's kind of like it is creating a custom catalog for you. I mean, the response is not like a SERP, right? We were buying furniture in our house. And we're just saying, oh, yeah, we have this much space available in this spot. What do you think is a good...

you know, piece that would look good in that spot that meets these dimensions and things like that. But it's crazy that we weren't doing that previously, you know what I mean? And so all this kind of customization, being able to give... vibes, general aesthetics. I'm looking for something slightly higher end, but not super fancy. It's crazy that you weren't able to...

By the way, that's just the other crazy, crazy thing. I know my wife is an architect. And so she sort of has this notebook in which she has all these architectural pictures and so on. And you can ask it. quite high-level reasoning questions on what I should put in there. Yes, yes. It's able to take an architectural sketch or drawing and then take a-

public catalog of furniture and put those things together and reason about it. And that type of stuff is pretty magical. I'll argue on this. We are, as you know, really... AI pilled when it comes to commerce at Stripe, and we think a huge amount will move here. And all the merchant conversations we're having are bearing that out. And the way I think about it is that if you are doing open-ended discovery...

oh, I'm interested in an outfit to buy for this occasion. I don't know exactly what I want. AI will be so much better at helping you with that than the current experiences where you're clicking through a list of search results or something like that.

And then if you're doing targeted search, where I'm looking for a specific object that meets these needs, I want this component for my bike, then also being able to specify with AI the exact parameters of the search you have will be much better. You're like, wait, if... you're taking all of the

undirected discovery. And if you're also taking all of the highly directed search, isn't that just like all commerce that happens on the internet? I think the only thing that's left that's out of that is like recurring staples. I need to order more pet food. That feels to me...

like the least affected. Though, of course, you have to discover the brand of pet food at some point originally. But yeah, that's kind of how we're thinking about it. And again, Etsy has been an awesome first partner because... all the products are custom, right? There's no... Yeah, that makes a ton of sense to me. I mean, the discovery part...

which obviously people like Instagram and others have done a great job. So the question is, what's the discovery layer? We have like, that's one of the, you know, Obviously, personalized discovery layer, inspiration for product. What Pinterest has done is interesting. So some layer like that married with this conversational interface. Well, and of course, it'll be a rising tide that lifts all boats where part of what we're doing with this is making merchants' product catalogs remotely...

discoverable and inventory and everything like that. And then remotely purchasable, where you don't necessarily have to go through the whole flow on their site and everything like that. You can just do it inside the Magic Wand co-pilot experience. And so that is at like the raw nuts and bolts level.

what we are doing and what we're wiring up. I think then what's exciting is that, again, Pinterest played with commerce quite a few years back, maybe 10 years back. It hasn't taken off as a huge thing. But now if you have all the merchants who are offering...

their product catalogs as part of this protocol, then social sites like Pinterest and Instagram and Twitter get another run at this kind of commerce experience because you have way more merchant support and adoption for it than you had the first time around. Yeah. And we have a project called the NL Web. And the idea is that, which is to really take every catalog of every merchant and give it like essentially a website, an NL Web interface. Yes.

an agent can talk to, to be able to interrogate and get the deep search, so to speak. Yes, yes. Because today, in some sense, one of the biggest challenges is the... the quality of the catalog and the ability to use reasoning to do a deep search. If you can solve that, then to your point, every product will find its query. Yes. We're building out this platform.

in agentic commerce where we have some open source protocols like our agentic commerce protocol. We obviously have the regular Stripe products. People are using us for this. It's particularly kind of tricky from a payments point of view because you're looking to have an AI app do...

payments on behalf of other people across all these different sites on the web without probably sharing all your payment details like all across the web. This is interesting payment things that we're doing. Anyway, we're looking to build a platform business in agentic commerce. You guys seem to know a thing or two. What advice would you have for us as we build in this very nascent space, but when there clearly is product market fit? I mean, I think you have...

done that, right? Which is one of the things that I would think is what does it mean to participate in this agentic workflow, right? For every merchant, right? Like, so every merchant now will have to sort of come to someone like Stripe and say, hey, I have a catalog. I have a checkout. Please get me.

to meet agents in the most friction-free way. And that done tastefully is why I would think our hire striped for. And I think the merchant onboarding, because I'm assuming the long tail of merchants being able to... click and say, hey, enable me for agentic commerce, is going to be the thing that's going to drive. Because the good news here is there is going to be multiple. I mean, obviously, ChatGPT is the big...

But there's going to be, I mean, you know, Google's going to be there. We're going to be there. Meta will be there. Perplexity. There's going to be a lot of competition. Yes. There's going to be a lot of front doors. Yes. As aggregators. But the more interesting thing is they themselves. on their website or on their mobile app will want to support natural language queries.

And so all of that being enabled for, or my own agents will go interrogate those things. So I think that that's the key thing to be challenged, or rather really solved well. Because going to a small merchant and saying, hey, you go stand up an MCP server, do this protocol, that protocol. What's the easy button? I think the other thing that we're going to see is...

you're probably seeing this already, emerging of a bunch of the agentic experiences. So we're talking about agentic commerce here. We had Des Treanor from Intercom. They do. They're now doing customer service, AI mediated and just like replacing humans doing customer service with AI. But what they're seeing, obviously, is a huge amount of induced demand where people.

initially come for the help desk type queries and then it's like wow this is honestly a much better way to navigate the website and it's almost like a command line for you know it can't quite take as much actions now as it will be able to but i also wonder interesting how much all these experiences merge where like we're doing the buying stuff over here that is

growing and expanding and maybe there's some discovery and things like that. They're doing the customer service stuff over there. It's universal. Yeah. That's a good point. When does it become a command-blind application? Again, my example of this is I find the fashion space interesting where how... incredibly poor the tech is with a lot of websites out there where people are trying to do this very aesthetic.

vibes-based. I'm looking for something like that, but like a little more fancy, you know, whatever. And it's all keyword-based search and manual tagging and things like that. And things like that feel to me perfectly set up for having an interactive AI.

based experience where, again, like your mid-journey prompts, you're like, no, the image wasn't quite right, change it in this way. Just doing that with commerce, I think would be really interesting. Makes sense. And I also think intuitively, I mean, all of us. Our inside sales is also, or the customer service is also inside sales. Exactly. And so intuitively that makes sense. And definitely in the agentic world, you can stitch these things together so that the seams are not like...

to what they are today. Maybe what we're describing is a bunch of swim lanes have been established by... random accidents of software and org charts and everything like that. You do customer service. When people come with a query as of a non-commercial nature, you are an SDR. That's right. You know, you do whatever. And all those distinctions are probably going to get put away. Yeah.

AI brand loyalty

We're talking a lot about kind of the AI apps that people use and Copilot and ChatGPT and Gemini and all these kind of things. There's a debate about how much model quality matters. And is it the case that people pick a brand?

And, you know, they've been drinking, you know, Coke for the longest time. And even if Coke's, I mean, Coke's a bad example because there was a revolt about the change in the formula. But, you know, even if they change the formula, you know, people, they still have a preferred brand. You know, I use O3. My wife uses GPT-5.

because I'm like, you know, you deserve more intelligence than that. And, you know, you take 0.3 from my cold dead hands. Where do you stand on the debate of do people have loyalty to it? And there was also the revolt when they tried to take away 4.0, was it? And people were really attached to that model. Do people have loyalty to a model or do they have loyalty to an AI brand and how does this affect your business strategy? I think that in the consumer products,

This was the first time we saw that, right? When you changed models, they are not sort of uniform changes and they impact people differently. personality is one such thing or style or what have you. And so it just sort of is a new dimension. So in other words, it's also an argument that, oh, wow, this is a new dimension.

of perhaps differentiation right uh people will you know it's sort of there's the iq side of it there's the eq side of it um and then there is all these style points and maybe that's kind of one of the things that people will uh steer things towards. But long term for me, I think you have to kind of make sure that the models are most capable for the hardest high value tasks.

And then you continuously optimize after you have access to that for what the task at hand is, right? So as a product builder for us, my thing is have the model drop, which is the most capable. But then what's in production is multiple models. And my favorite new thing in GitHub, for example, is auto.

which is I want to keep, you know, people still obviously love Sonnet, whatever, they want to use it. But at the end of the day, I really want the model picker. And it just can't be a dumb model router. It has to basically... have the intelligence to know that this task deserves this kind of cogs or this type of intelligence. And this is my complexity of my repo or my PR task.

ultimately is where the future of agents would be, right? And so therefore, you want the model. In fact, you want an ensemble of models that then you have agents intermediating. that ensemble so that it meets your needs. Yes. And then you'll have preferences. Will everyone's preference not just be for more intelligence? Like, I'll go into the picker and manually select O3 for, like, where should I go get ice cream query? Like, I always want to...

That's habit, don't you think? But that is, you know. Maybe. But it's also an important considered decision. But it is true. I mean, it's very hard for any of us to take our, that's why defaults matter and we love our defaults.

don't allow the cheese to be moved. You know, even the model selection stuff, you know, it's kind of like, wow, if you now took away the model selection, you know, it's a problem. And so therefore, you got to be careful. But I do think in the long run, if I can trust, that's another one.

which is if I can trust something to always do something for me while it's making a selection that somehow is delightful, then that's when I'll hand off. Okay. And so you think that's what you need to get to is... Me trusting that you'll pick an appropriate model. Exactly. Yeah. And then, I mean, my mental model of Microsoft is that you just play at every part of the stack in that there is the... You have Copilot, you have your stake in OpenAI, you have...

Well, we can get to vertical applications in AI. You have the Azure layer, you have chips, everything. I'm leaving out a whole bunch of stuff. Are some more important to you than others? What is the must win? Will you do verticals? Yeah, I mean, at some level. What's the nuance in that? Yeah, at the core, the way.

I kind of conceptualize it is our infrastructure business, we have to be fantastic at building what I'll call the token factory, right? This is the tokens per dollar per watt, really being super efficient at that. Then I'll say we have a... Another layer of it, which is the agent factory. And the difference between the token factory and the agent factory is use the tokens most efficiently to drive a business outcome or a consumer preference outcome, right?

The value per token or something. Yeah, the value per token as evolved by sort of the specific domain that people care about. And that is, to your point, it has tooling around it. It has a whole host. It's kind of the new app. tier or the app server, right? Every new platform has always had. There was the web and there was a web server. This is the AI server in some sense or the AI cloud. Then...

We will definitely want to build our own, I'll call it, systems of intelligence or AI systems. That is the family of co-pilot, right? Whether it's for information work, that's kind of what we've done. Coding or software development, that's the GitHub co-pilot. Security is another domain where we are absolutely going to be a primary. Those will be the three horizontal. We will also have business applications. The other one that... that we're doing a lot in health and science.

So in health, we had bought Nuance and now we have something called DAX Copilot. And this is the note-taking diarization for physicians, right? So the ability to be able to have a doctor spend more time with their patients and then... the AI do everything else in terms of everything from coding to taking the nodes. So that's one place. We have a great close partnership with Epic. It's embedded part of Epic. So that's kind of what we're doing in health.

And then we're also doing stuff in Copilot for Consumer Health that sort of talks to it. But the other one is science. And the science, it turns out, it's a... big domain for what i'll call the outer loop orchestration right which is um The scientific method, in some sense, requires you to create the hypothesis, then run these multiple experiments in silico.

come back, refine, and so on. So that, to me, is another tool chain. It's kind of like we're trying to discover some combination of the GitHub Copilot meets... Microsoft 365 Copa, knowledge work, if you will. for the scientist, where they have the authoritative sources of knowledge. They have even the interfaces. Tools used could even be, hey, the MCP server for the wet lab, so to speak. Can I interface with it? And then...

How do you orchestrate all of this such that the scientific loop can go faster? As a platform company, you always have decisions around...

Product bundling

When should you try and bundle products together? When should you try and staple them and mandate they be used together? And when should you not? And I think the classic example, for some reason, that everyone talks about, despite it being quite minor, is the fact that... Apple originally only...

let's use an iPod with a Mac and tried to use it to drive Mac sales and then gave up and shipped iTunes for Windows. And my understanding reading the Apple China book is it was like a totally random decision that someone just made one day, but it's often held up as one of these examples. Obviously, Microsoft. The entire history is full of these interesting examples. I don't think people realize how open Microsoft was in the early days, where in 1985, most of Microsoft's revenue...

was for Macintosh applications. And then for the Microsoft operating systems, most of the applications were third party, like Lotus 1, 2, 3, and things like this. And so it was like a fully open strategy. And then you had the Windows era of...

the tight coupling between Office and Windows and those kind of mutually reinforcing each other. Then early on, I get the sense Azure and Cloud was, you know, oh, it's a place you can run your SQL server and then fully embracing Linux later on and things like that.

I'm curious just to, because again, we think about this as a platform company and we've been of late embracing much more modularity where Stripe Radar, you can use it even if you're not using Stripe for payments and things like that. How do you in general think about your framework for when products should be coupled versus when you sell them independently. That's a great point. And then AI-specific versions of that question. A reason about this, I think we overstate many times...

how many of these battles are quote unquote zero sum. So at some level, one of the pieces of analysis that I think that you want has to be sharp at is what are by definition going to be multiplayer? Like cloud is a classic example, right? Which is, I remember even back in the day when I got started, and obviously Azure got started much later than AWS. People would tell me, oh God, isn't AWS so far ahead?

is there a room for a second cloud? And having competed against Oracle and IBM on all the middle tier servers and so on, I felt like, no, this enterprise customer and commercial customers by and large are going to demand sort of a multiple. And so that was the structural understanding that drove us to even just be at it. And the rest is history. So a little bit of, to me, if you over package things, you might in fact... sort of reduce your tab.

and not compete. For example, if we built Azure, in fact, Azure is called Windows Azure. Well, that's a problem because Azure makes no sense just for Windows. It's got to support Linux as first class. MySQL and Postgres is first class. sort of allowed us to make sure that you actually have to do a great job with SQL Server, but you've got to do as bang of a job as Amazon would do with Postgres or MySQL.

It was driven primarily by, hey, that's the TAM. That's what customers expect us. And we're going to have tough competition. So to me, that's kind of how I define my modularity. What's the thing that maximizes my... stacks market opportunity. Then, yes, we are a firm. And the reason we're not a conglomerate. And so therefore, there should be a theory of some integration benefits and platform effects. And so therefore, what is that? And how do we do a great job of it? But each layer of the stack.

But even in, let's say in Azure, the token factory, somebody should be able to come and say, I just want to use Azure for its bare metal services. I just need Kubernetes, you know, clustered all over, but I just need you to do the management part and I'll bring all my software.

No problem. We've got to win that workload. Maybe then after that, we'll at least have a shot someday when it becomes a real pain to manage sort of your multi-region database on your own. Then you'll say, oh, let me just use Cosmos. But it's a separate decision. Isn't there always a debate between...

if we have Linux on Azure, we'll sell more Azure. But in the Windows people say, yeah, but you're hamstring Windows server. And there are some places, like you're describing, where Microsoft's open. There are other places, you know.

Microsoft Flight Simulator is not available on the PlayStation. It's available on the Xbox. And that makes sense. You know, it feels kind of natural to be integrated that way. I know this might be a bit of a stretch, but, you know, Teams chat and Teams video are not sold separately. They're just part of one thing. And that makes sense. It makes the bundle more compelling.

don't you always end up in these debates as to does the bundling cost outweigh the bundling benefits? Yeah, I don't think some of those, like, for example, Teams thing is a classic order, which is Teams was... born as a product that brought those four things, like Outlook, right? Outlook was brought, you know, there was a PIM before, there was an email client and a calendaring was separate. And Outlook was the first scaffolding that said, hey, we bring...

these three things to get a job done, right? And same thing with Teams, right? We brought chat and channels and video and what have you into one. So the bundling was the product.

to some degree, right? That was the product scaffolding. And so then, of course, you can then say, hey, that needs to have an open marketplace and it needs to integrate with other things or what have you. So the modularity has to be thought through in... ways that make sense at the atomic level, then you don't want to over...

Think about the synergies or sort of integration effects, and you're not competitive, right? A classic thing would be if you built an unbelievable public cloud, except it only ran Windows workloads or SQL workloads, that would be essentially... very small sliver of the market. So it was in our sort of interest and definitely in the interest of meeting the customer needs. And so being able to sort of really click in the AI stack, that's kind of how I look at it, right? We have an infra business.

We have an app server business and we have an apps business. It's just simplifying.

I want those three things to stand on their own merits. We ourselves, of course, want to have the feedback loop across these three layers. But customers and partners will choose which... door they entered through this impression i have is that when you took over microsoft you shifted the culture from a highly bundled, you'll buy your Windows machines and they're running Microsoft Access and their SQL Server and everything is neatly packaged together in this Microsoft life.

to moving towards more of an open and interoperable strategy. I think that the way I would say is my thing was to go back even to the Microsoft of the 80s, perhaps, right? Because most of what happened was... Really, in the 90s, there was Microsoft and there was pretty much nothing else. And so there was sort of a lot more of our things coming together, whether it was on the client or on the server. The 80s, to your point, right?

We built Office on the Mac. Windows came later. In fact, the concept that Bill had when he started Microsoft was it's a software factory. I'm not in love with any one category. I'm just going to build the best software factory and it's going to churn out.

Whatever problem, flight sim, flight sim. You want a basic interpreter? No problem. We have one. You want an operating system? We have one too. So in some sense, that was the idea. And at one point, we got into a lock between four or five parts of that. That became the Windows and Windows NT and client server and what have you. And so I sort of realized that when...

I became CEO, and even when I was running our cloud business, that, hey, this is a time where the market's going to be a lot bigger and a lot different. And we didn't. We didn't have the mobile platform at that time. And so, therefore, we really needed to make sure. we would stay relevant in the largest markets that we could address by bringing our products together in configurations that made sense.

There's actually a lot more. There was not that much dog. In fact, I would say, if it was not in the core DNA of the company, I don't think just because I showed up as a CEO and I said, I want to do this, we would have executed well. It was in the core DNA of the company that we can, in fact, take our software to every platform. Yes. Speaking of the core DNA of the company, there's the famous cartoon of...

Microsoft's culture

of Microsoft with all the guns pointing at each other. How much cultural tweaking did you have to do? And... How do you actually do that when you get down to brass tacks? Because you can say all the nice things, the all hands and things like that, but ultimately culture comes down to...

what you will and won't tolerate and how decisions are made and things like that. Yeah, I'd say there are two things that I learned from an entire episode because I always say, look, I'm a consummate insider, right? Anything good and bad about Microsoft for the last 35 years, I lived through them all and I'm part of it, right? so I can't deny any of it. The thing that I felt was a little bit of that was just we lost our own belief because we lost the narrative. That cartoon is a great example.

of someone else defining. what became the cultural narrative more so than reality. People started to identify with the cartoon. That's right. I mean, that's kind of one of the, I think that one of the fundamental issues of today's social media and the zeitgeist is you can... absolutely lose narrative it's reflexive it's yeah it's completely reflexive and it's so like so one of the interesting things is of course

All of these things have signal, right? So this doesn't mean, oh, wow, we were all perfect divisions and we were all sort of in great harmony. That is not the case. But, you know, in some sense, some of these divisional tensions are real issues that need to have tension, right? You can't have, like, social cohesion is not a goal. Winning in the marketplace is a goal.

But at some level, you have to orchestrate these large organizations. In fact, you may even have two competing teams by design. And just because somebody sort of said, hey, I'm going to read the New Yorker and there's going to be a... That's the type of stuff that I think leaders and how to communicate in today's world where your employees read about you outside and form opinions about you.

is one of the toughest leadership challenges, I think, which is how do you earn the trust? How do you really make sure that they can, in fact, feel the reality, shape the reality? Like the other thing is... Everybody thinks it's the system. It's that guy at the top or, you know, my VP and they have all the power and I have none. The reality is power is a lot more diffused and distributed. And so therefore, how do you...

really help people, especially get hold of that and reshape culture. One of the other famous things people say is, hey, I never leave companies, I leave managers. I believe that. All right. And so it's kind of micro cultures and they can be shaped. In fact, when I look back at my Microsoft career, I was lucky to fall into these people who created these unbelievable environments in the company.

Right. And that's kind of why I stayed and that's how I thrive. Yes. And so to some degree, you know, I feel that the more culture you need at the top, a narrative. then you have to live and be consistent, right? So that's where this growth mindset or learn it all versus know it all has been super helpful for us as just a frame because nobody thinks of it as my dogma, right? Thank God it's a well-understood child psychology thing that appeals to people outside of work.

Cracking something like that and then living it. But also somehow I would say the challenge for all of us in today's world is let the social media means not define us. What's that inner strength? that is there in an organization that can, in fact, resist the social meme. Yes. That, I think, is the key. How many people is Microsoft? I think around 200,000. Okay, so rough numbers. Microsoft is 200,000 people.

The law of very large companies

Stripe is 10,000 people. Maybe there's someone who's listening to this who runs a company that's 500 people or something like that. A lot of the things that we do are probably... fairly scale independent, where you're trying to make sure that you're talking to customers, you're holding a leadership offsite. We're looking at the numbers for 26. We want the revenues to be a bit higher and the cost to be a bit lower. There's a lot of activities in companies that are kind of the same.

regardless of the size. That said, there's also probably things that only show up at the 200,000-person city-state size. that I wouldn't be aware of at the 10,000 person size. What effects only show up when you're that big? There are two things I would say, quite honestly, having only worked at Microsoft. it's not that i'm like an expert but the one thing i would say taking over for a founder

Steve and Bill built the company. I mean, Paul and Bill started, and Steve and Bill scaled it. And I was sort of the first, quote-unquote, non-founder person. thing I realized quickly, or in fact, I got into the job and I realized that I need a team. And just to have the ability to manage the scope. But then...

You know, that A.G. Lafley thing that we put out there, which I think is a great one. Being clear about what does the CEO clearly need to do, though, in that. Which businesses are you in? Which businesses are you out? Synthesizing the outside. having the standards, setting the standards for culture. And then the ability, to your point, about having that performance culture that you can't say, hey, I'm only about the long term or I'm all over the short term. You've got to deliver both.

getting a real grip of the four or five things that only you can do, and then building the team, building the team. You'd say... even at a 500 person that's what you do but quite frankly you can keep in your working memory right growing up as a developer right there was a set of things everybody would talk about how many lines of code do you know yes right personally yeah at some point

you sort of say, oh, that's the person who knows that module or that library. That becomes more like, and everybody starts where they know every line of code. At some level, then you have to get to the person who knows, oh, I know the person who wrote that.

And I think that that modularity and team building and the cohesiveness is, I think, the most important. Am I understanding you correctly that maybe at Stripe scale or at a smaller scale, you can still reason about the product as a product and know...

Everything that you're shipping and everything like that. But I also think founders are unique in that sense because the founders are... you know that that's kind of what is singular about them because they've grown up with it from day one yes see it's it's kind of hard to take the working memory of a founder and say oh let me Take it and imprint it on sort of a professional CEO. Yes. It just doesn't work. Because even for me, I joined the company in 92.

I was not there in the early 80s, right? And so to some degree, it was a continuous scale. Only the quote unquote, the founder CEO or the founders see it. And so that's why I think having respect for what founders can do uniquely and founders having respect for whoever comes next, that they can't be like.

doing exactly the same thing that they did, right? So that's why I think this founder mode thing is interesting, which is clearly there is, you know, the cultural personality of a founder is unbelievable, right? And you use it, maximize it. then mere model CEOs like us have to also be in the re-founder mode, but don't think you're a founder. That nuance, I think, is an important one. Last question.

What's in the water in Hyderabad?

We're running up against time as we talk about cultures and building them. What's going on in the water in Hyderabad for the school that you went to? Also, Shantanu went there, AJ Banga went there, a bunch of good chess players are similarly from... There and southern India more broadly and things like that. But do you have any theory on the local outperformance? Yeah, the high school we went to, in fact...

Yeah, until I would say NVIDIA and Jensen because Jensen has it now covered for all of us. between me and Ajay and Shantanu. In fact, the CEO of Procter & Gamble today is also from my high school. See, it's a cabal. It's kind of a cabal. I would say that one of the fascinating things growing up in Hyderabad and going to that school in the middle of nowhere at that time, in the late 70s, in the early 80s, I would say, I think it gave us a lot more space. If you look at even each of us, right?

academics was a thing, but quite frankly, we mostly, all of us had things which were, we excelled at a lot of other things beyond academics, in fact. That was a pretty rare thing at that time in that country. And so I attribute it a lot to my high school because I feel that it is a place where it gave us a lot more space and room to follow what really...

became your passion, but you were able to take your time to discover it versus sort of feeling that, hey, I had to join some kind of a race. It wasn't as tracked as- That's right. What was your passion in high school? Cricket. In fact, this, by the way- Yeah, the Samuel Beckett. Yeah, so I want to know this story. So if you asked the question, who is the one sports person who played actually professionally?

I guess he played one or two matches for, I guess, the Dublin University, and he played first-class cricket. And so he's the only person who played professional cricket and won a Nobel Prize. Really? That's really funny. So you can have it all. There you go. The chess boxing of its day or something, you know. Merging the sporting and the intellectual. A Nobel Prize winning professional cricketer. That's awesome. Well, you know, you...

You came close, but in another life, you know, that could have been you. Thank you so much. Thanks, Satya. It's such a pleasure.

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