267: Dan McDermitt - An Edge with Correlations Across Time Frames - podcast episode cover

267: Dan McDermitt - An Edge with Correlations Across Time Frames

Sep 21, 20231 hr 14 minEp. 267
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Summary

Dan McDermitt, co-founder of The Chart Guys, discusses his evolution as a trader, beginning after significant mutual fund losses in 2008. He details his early experiences in marijuana penny stocks, the pivotal shift from fundamental to technical analysis, and crucial lessons learned from major mistakes. The episode covers his deep dive into crypto, where he refined his strategies for recognizing market bubbles, scaling positions, and utilizing dynamic correlations across various timeframes. McDermitt also emphasizes the critical role of psychological resilience, self-observation, and maintaining a balanced, yet disciplined, approach to trading.

Episode description

Stinging losses with mutual funds in 2008 drove Dan to become an active manager of his portfolio. Enticed by the legalization prospects of marijuana, he dived into learning the fundamentals and technicals of the sector. Learning how these stocks traded relative to each other, he cultivated an awareness of the correlations between these companies. These interrelationships would later be applied to large cap stocks, Commodities and Crypto across different time frames to give insights on when to participate in Bull and Bear runs, and when to back away.

Feeling the pain of big early profits evaporating over months, Dan was forced to cultivate a mental flexibility in trading by considering both Bull and Bear signs in every stock he follows. Combined with correlations over multiple time frames with other stocks in the same sector, influences from Commodities, the dollar and various sectors, he flushes out nuances with scalpel-like precision and is ready to flip bullish or bearish without attachment.

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Transcript

Episode Introduction and Sponsor Message

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You know, as full time traders, a lot of people think, well, you just don't feel FOMO anymore. And it's not that I completely erase these emotions from, you know, my my body and brain. It's that I'm able to recognize, I'm able to say, I just had this thought.

And this thought tells me that I'm feeling FOMO. And so I'm not going to act on this trade because I know that acting on FOMO is not a good thing. And this is one of the aspects where becoming a better trader, if you're really in this, it makes you a better person, in my opinion.

Guest Background and Early Career

Hey there, traders. I'm Tessa, co-host of Chat with Traders. We're in episode 267. Today, Ian interviews Dan McDermott. After stinging losses with mutual funds in 2008, Dan was driven to become an active manager of his portfolio. Enticed by the legalization prospects of marijuana, he dived into learning the fundamentals and technicals of this sector. Learning how these stocks traded relative to each other, he cultivated an awareness of the correlations between these companies.

These inner relationships would later be applied to large cap stocks, commodities, and crypto across different timeframes to give insights on when to participate in bull and bear runs and when to back away. Feeling the pain of big early profits evaporating over months, Dan was forced to cultivate a mental flexibility in trading by considering both bull and bear signs in every stock he follows.

Learn how he combines correlations over multiple time frames with other stocks in the same sector, influences from commodities, the dollar, and various sectors. and is able to flush out nuances with scalpel like precision and ready to flip bullish or bearish without attachment. Ladies and gentlemen, we're so pleased to present Dan McDermott of the Chart Guys. Well, Dan, welcome to Chat with Traders. Thanks for having me, Ian. Glad to be here.

Yeah, let's dive into your uh background a little bit. Uh where did you grow up and uh where are you now? Sure, I grew up in Massachusetts, about a half hour north of Boston in Andover. And after going to college on the coast of North Carolina at UNC Wilmington. Stuck around and currently in western North Carolina, loving the mountains and the warmer weather. Nice. Uh what were your your career desires in school?

So I started as a business management and finished as a business management major. And that was very, you know, vague in the sense that I could apply that to anything, whether I wanted to run a farm or, you know, whatever it was going to be. Uh they have some basic classes like leadership and entrepreneurship and things like that. And uh that definitely got got me in the business type of mindset, but uh there wasn't anything directly related to the stock market in my uh

you know, studies. And so that was really a an area that was lacking. And so it required a significant amount of self-directed study to learn about uh the inner workings of the stock market.

2008 Crisis Catalyst and Penny Stocks

Was there a particular catalyst uh to get you interested in following the market? I would say uh losing some money. So what it was is, you know, in high school I had my jobs of, you know, I was mowing lawns and I was a lobsterman up in Cape Cod and I saved up$5,000. And so then I go into college and my dad is

uh very, you know, standard work a nine to five in a corporate job for thirty, forty years, put your money in the market, and then you retire. And that's gone very well for him. He's now retired and traveling around. And uh I looked at that and essentially I started to think, you know, I don't want to do that. I don't want the nine to five sit in traffic driving into the city kind of job.

And so I I had that$5,000 and I put it in mutual funds as I headed into college and I wasn't paying attention to markets at all. You know, I was concerned with going to college and all the things that that entails. And I then, you know, that was right into 2008. And so I started looking and my$5,000 is now$3,000. And it's like, wait a second.

If if I'm gonna lose money, I wanna be the one to lose it. I wanna actively be losing it. You know, I don't wanna put my money in a mutual fund and and have it go down like this. So uh I didn't fully understand what was going on in the markets during 2008.

But uh the the catalyst of losing money and not wanting a nine to five was enough for me to start poking around at alternative ways that I could, you know, I knew the internet had a ton of opportunities. You know, how can I make money on the internet is essentially the mindset that I was in. Uh-huh. Did you have any friends or family in the markets uh by chance?

Not actively. Just just my dad, you know, the standard, mutual funds, safe long-term investments. Um, but other than that, uh not really much exposure. Yeah, I'd like to dive into your early trading. Apparently the first stock that you bought was a medical marijuana stock. Was your interest in marijuana sector a catalyst? to get you into that stock or I mean that stock's also a penny stock too, right?

Yeah. I mean, it was the catalyst to get me into markets. I looked, you know, I'm looking around. How can I make money? How can I get out of the nine to five grind? And I I could see clearly the trends that were shifting in social sentiments or around the country regarding cannabis. And uh, you know, 2010, we had a vote in California, the first state to attempt to legalize, and it actually failed.

But I could say, okay, the ball's rolling. I can see the way things are going. You know, I was reading about C B D. uh in books before anybody knew what that was. And I said, okay, there's, you know, there's something to this. There's opportunities here as the laws continue to change. And so I really reached a fork in the road where it was, I'm either going to go to Canada, which had a decade head start legalizing industrial hemp.

I'm either gonna go to Canada and learn how to grow this plant in the fields and take the farmers' route to be ready to hit the ground running when the laws change here, or There's these stocks, there's these penny stocks out there. And you know, back then that was really all there were, just a handful, maybe six penny stocks. If you, you know, used Google to look for uh opportunities in cannabis, they just didn't exist. So

Uh that that led me down to MJNA, which was the first stock. And uh then just, you know, fell in love with the game. And at that point I was fundamental based in the sense that, you know, it was that was the reason I was interested in the sector and I

Started to, you know, I was almost like an investigative reporter. I was reading about the CEOs and their their past experiences and just uh started to be a significant sponge for knowledge in terms of, all right, I've I've got my, you know, way of this is how I can make money using the internet. And now I want to try and figure out what I'm doing to a certain degree because obviously when I started, I had no idea what I was doing.

Were you uh influenced at all by any of the uh penny stock pumpers or chat rooms, or did they not cover uh marijuana stock?

Transition to Technical Analysis and Mentorship

Oh, they certainly did. I was in there on investors hub. That was the big one back then. And uh just, you know, I That honestly helped change my life for the better in the sense that, you know, I'm looking around and I started to the first thing I ever learned about the market was, all right, these penny stocks put out a press release, they pump very, you know, temporarily, and then they they fade back.

And so I thought, huh, if you sell when news comes out, you can rebuy lower. And so the first thing I ever learned was sell the news and Uh then, you know, from there I'm looking around in the chat rooms and you've got your your cheerleaders, the people that, you know, fall in love with the company and this is gonna be the one and uh just you know highlighting everything great about the company.

And then I started looking around and found a couple individuals who were using technical analysis and charts. And they were right way more often than anybody else. And so, you know, I I zoomed in a little bit and said, All right, I need to focus on what these guys are doing. I need to learn from them. And uh that's what started the shift from

uh fundamental analysis to then going into technical analysis. And I would say at this point, you know, bought my first penny stock 2010, lucked out a bit in terms of, you know, short little bull markets that that kept me making some money, not knowing what I was doing. And then maybe around 2012 is when I started to really get serious into the the technical analysis aspect.

So for the first few years you were or pr early on you were trading based on the fundamental prospects. And then later you saw that these um traders were doing quite well with just technical analysis. Did you expand out beyond the marijuana sector once you, you know, looked at, hey, technical analysis? I mean, this could apply to anything and marijuana is just one of many stocks. Did you expand out into other penny stocks or other regular stocks?

I did. And it definitely, you know, it was almost like the the getting more familiar with charts and technical analysis made me more comfortable stepping into realms that I didn't have any fundamental knowledge whatsoever. And so, you know, there were eSig companies that would have a little bit of momentum behind them and and really anything. You know, back then there were even some some Bitcoin uh stocks in the early days. And so uh that did, you know, pretty much anything where there was

uh some momentum and some volume and the chat room started talking about it. And that actually helped me, you know, learn the the social aspect of the game where, you know, I could, I could look at how many posts

A stock message board had over the weekend and get a good sense of, you know, this is going to continue running when the the week starts next Monday, or uh, you know, there's not a lot of interest here and things like that. So that really Connected the puzzle of the technical aspect and the, I mean, I guess that would be the early days of social media, these forums. Uh, did you have any early mentors or did you just have people that you followed on the message board?

Uh there was one individual, it was, you know, the person that I came across on the message boards, uh, his name was Osprei, and he was just a very generous individual, just in terms of willing to answer all my questions. And so, you know, he's looking at RSI, he's looking at Bollinger bands and volume.

And he he would type out, you know, his paragraph of technical analysis for a chart. And I would just follow along and read it. And eventually I just started to emulate exactly what he was doing. Like

You know, all right, if if he's looking at this chart, what would he be pointing out? And I was typing down, you know, even to his style, he would put, you know, multiple dots instead of a period. And I I even started typing that way as I was just trying to just trying to do what this individual does because they were doing it a better job than anybody else that I had come across.

Major Trading Mistakes and Lessons Learned

Were you able to hold yourself accountable in any way? How were the how was early trading for you? Uh definitely have, you know, I made every single mistake. I learned all the lessons. I like I said, I lucked out and and got a bit of a cushion where I didn't know what I was doing, but stumbled into a bull market for these cannabis stocks. But

You know, I I swung trade. I bought a a a Chinese name that I was planning on holding for two or three days and it delisted overnight and I just lost, you know. maybe 15% of my entire net worth. And so, you know, that's a huge hit to my gut and a lesson learned. And then later on, maybe a a year or a couple of years into technical analysis.

Uh, I was still doing a bit of the fundamental side and there was a rare earth mineral company. And, you know, I thought I found the next big one. And really the most dangerous aspect was the price was uh affirming what I thought. I knew fundamentally in the sense that, you know, the the stars aligned for this this name to run and it ran maybe six, seven hundred percent. I turned seven thousand dollars into, you know, forty something thousand dollars.

uh fresh out of college, early twenties, and that that was a lot of money to me back then. And the it was almost like the price action affirmed, yep, I'm right. This is gonna be a big deal. This is one to hold long term. And of course I gave it all back. I gave back all that profit. And honestly, that lesson of Of seeing all of those gains, which were fairly life-changing at that point, just in, you know, a a zoomed-in sense, uh, giving it all back and

Because I had that lesson so early on, I'm extremely grateful because then when, you know, the crypto boom and happens and all these other uh euphoria markets, I know to lock in the profit along the way. And I know that these big pumps lead to big drawdowns. And so that was one of the major takeaway lessons from the penny stock world that uh helped shape me for success as a trader further down the line. Mm-hmm. So did you find yourself uh

rationalizing to yourself, oh, the uh this company, this rare earth company will come back. It's got good fundamentals, it's got this, it's got that. Um, did you reflect back on all the excuses your mind created? for why uh this rare earth company is worth holding on to. Oh, absolutely. I mean, you go through everything. It's the shorts, the manipulation. And I was rationalizing. And it was even to the point of, you know, again, the just just thinking that.

Uh the shorts are gonna have to cover. And it that another major lesson that it led to was starting to realize, all right, this is what dilution is, this is what convertible debt is. And I didn't know what these things were, you know, for my first four years in the market. And of course, when you're in penny stocks, the That is penny stock one oh one is these companies just dilute to, you know, pay the the insiders and to to stay.

actual companies, whatever operations they may or may not have. And then I learned the lesson, the vast majority of these penny stocks are scams. And so that was when it was time to upgrade to real stocks that were listed on real exchanges.

Evolving to Real Stocks and Adapting

When did you switch over to quote real stocks on the exchanges? And what was the the the catalyst to switch? Oh, I would say maybe around 2014, 2013, 2014. And it wasn't, you know, cold turkey quitting penny stocks because I was still keeping an eye, you know, if we get a run up into the election season when some individual states like Colorado or Washington are voting on legalization, these cannabis penny stocks would still get their, you know, runs and there was still opportunity there.

But I would go to, you know, uh Twitter back then was a name I was watching. And then the 3D printing sector. And I didn't, you know, 3D printing, DDD and SSYS. some of these names back then, I forget if it was 2013, 2014, they ran, you know, a thousand percent or whatever it was. And that was just, you know, the that version of new technology. Get in early. This is going to change things.

And I didn't make a lot of money in that that pump, but it was just another affirmation of, all right, this thousand percent pump led to a 95% plus pullback. And, you know, I would say at this point in my trading career, I'm a bit of a hype specialist. And because I've seen these, these penny stock pump and dumps and, you know, the 3D printing pump and dump, you have to observe these things and watch them play out.

to gain the experience so that the next time it comes around, you're able to capitalize on that opportunity. Mm-hmm. Uh you mentioned about uh being in a Chinese stock that got delisted overnight. Was did that experience uh push you into just day trading out of fear of holding positions overnight? Or did you still uh hold on to swing positions over days and weeks?

Definitely that was a factor in in the switch and Uh also capital, you know, the more I get capital, I can remember getting the the call from Fidelity, hey, you're under the 25,000 limit and you gotta, you know, you're you're putting time out for whatever good faith violation.

Uh, but that was, yeah, that that Chinese penny stock lesson, not only for for swing trading, but also uh I was very surprised at how quickly I recovered from the big gut punch. You know, 15, 20% of my net worth is now gone overnight. And, you know, it took reflecting. I can remember going and sitting out on the beach the next day. And about twenty four hours later, it was like, all right, you know, I I got through it emotionally. It wasn't

hindering me significantly. And that was a major point for me the the next day or two after that, where I had the realization, like, okay, if I can stomach this and push through this. You know, I I can do this uh longer term. And so it was almost like a motivator. A lot of people perhaps would have let that be a demotivator and you know wallowed in in that misery. But for me, it was a a a positive catalyst.

Refining Strategies and Timeframe Discipline

When you switched to um mostly exchange uh listed stocks, did any of your strategies change? Uh yeah, definitely. As I continued, you know, I used to watch uh level two with penny stocks where a little bit of, you know, dollar volume, a hundred thousand dollars or whatever number. uh could significantly influence things. And then you get to watching Apple and you know, you watch the level two of Apple and it is just uh flying around. And it became a lot less useful for me using level two. And

Um, you know, I started to focus more on the moving averages and and things like that. And again, the biggest change for me was. Uh as as I started to build up capital a little bit, my trading style started to shift where it was, okay, you know, I don't have to hold for weeks or months to get a monetary win that was worthwhile. It can be done in just a day.

So these stocks typically move less than uh penny stocks. What how did you um How did your strategies get refined to extract out profits during the day? Yeah, it was m I was very uh moving average heavy. It was the Bollinger bands, you know, if we get extended under the Bollinger bands, it's time to keep an eye out for a bounce or or vice versa if we're extended above them. Um, and you know, I had

10 day moving average, the middle Bollinger Band, 20 period, the 50, the 100, the 200, and all these different colored lines on my charts. And that was uh part of the backbone, you know, I wasn't really, you know, later in my career, I transitioned to just pure price action trends where, you know, you pivot off a level and that's now a high or low support to be paying attention to. Uh but when I had initially transitioned to

We'll call them real stocks. Uh, that's when I was using a lot of those moving averages. And you know, I wasn't doing too well. I wasn't doing anything special. I was learning the game. And what I what I say to a lot of people is, you know, if if in your first year you go break even, you just got an entire year of free education. And so when I moved up to the big boards, it was definitely

uh a drastic change of of the way that I was playing the game. And, you know, a lot of small green months, small red months, and just being patient with myself, knowing that it was building education and experience that would pay off later in life. In one of your videos, uh, you say to don't zoom in because it can lead to overtrading. What time frame is considered zooming in and would it vary with trader experience? Yes, definitely. That that varies for every individual. You know, I'm looking at

Sometimes I'll look at the one minute time frame now. And anybody in their first, you know, year or two or even three of trading, I would say stay far away from the one two-minute time frames. Uh, you definitely need the experience.

to because things, you know, technical analysis, the beauty of it is that it's the same on all different time frames, the monthly chart and trends and and things like that apply the same way that the one minute chart does, but obviously it's just way faster. You've got way more pressure. uh in terms of you know when you have to act and how much time you have to analyze things and think on things. So uh if you are newer to trading, I definitely suggest

starting with with swing trade mindset. So you do have the time and the lack of, you know, pressure to be able to think essentially, because you've got that's a a muscle, you know, that you've got to train. Your brain is a We'll call it a muscle in terms of you know needing to be able to analyze things more quickly. And obviously you have to do that with repetition and a lot of practice.

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Interconnected Timeframes and Volatility

So let's dive into how you look at the different timeframes and their relationships. Uh do some timeframes have more importance for you, or is it the relationship between them that counts? It's the relationship. So if I'm focused on a swing trade, then I care most about, you know, the weekly and the daily timeframe. And I will zoom into the hourly chart to try and pinpoint entries a little bit.

If I'm day trading, I care about maybe the daily, the hourly, and the five minute time frame. And the one thing about the the timeframes and the relationships that they have with each other is uh you the the let's just use the five minute and the hourly for example.

A five minute, let's just say we're in an hourly uptrend, the clear higher lows and higher highs of price action. If you're seeing hourly consolidation and you're looking for an hourly higher low to try and form to maintain the hourly uptrend.

If you zoom into the five minute time frame, it is often the five minute trend going from a downtrend. It's in a downtrend during the hourly consolidation. And then when you change the five minute trend back to the bulls with a little higher low and higher high.

of price action, that will very often mark the hourly higher low. And so these time frames have these relationships. I generally use, you know, the five minute with the hourly in stocks. If I'm trading crypto or futures or something that has uh more hours in the trading day. I'll use the 15 minute with the four hour chart. I use the daily chart with the weekly chart. And it takes it's almost like riding a bike.

In terms of it takes a long time to understand this concept of how these time frames are all essentially, you know, these little fractals within each other. But once it clicks, it's like riding a bike in the sense that, you know, it makes a whole lot more sense. I know that. You know, once the morning, the first hour of the trading morning plays out and I see, you know, something shaping up, I know to zoom out to the 15 minute time frame and keep an eye out for.

You know, if we dropped on the morning, zoom out to the fifteen minute and look for the fifteen minute lower high to be the result of the next bounce. And you start to get really comfortable with how these different time frames interact with each other.

Mm-hmm. Uh so do you select um different time frames depending on what you're trading, like whether it's a uh a penny stock, uh a listed stock, crypto commodities, uh, what have you? Or Does it do do you use the same time frames because they're transferable no matter what you're trading? Uh I'll use mostly the same time frames, but it depends on the setup. And you know, we'll use gold as an example. So gold is a lot less volatile than say Tesla.

And so if I'm looking at gold, I know that I want to be looking from a swing perspective. So it's the daily and the weekly that I care most about. And if I'm looking at Tesla, well, Tesla can go, you know. five to seven percent in a day in either direction. And so then I'm a lot more focused on maybe the hourly and the five minute timeframe. So it definitely has to do with the volatility of the instrument that I'm looking at.

as well as, you know, the time frame that I'm most interested if I see a a clear set up on the the weekly time frame, then I'm going to ensure that I'm not too zoomed in because the five minute time frame means nothing to me if the weekly time frame is the basis of the trade setup that I'm trying to make an entry on.

Crypto Revolution: Aggressive Entry and Opportunity

Mm hmm. Uh, I'd like to jump into uh talk about crypto a little bit. And um my understanding is you got into crypto in twenty seventeen. Yep, May of 2017 and it definitely, you know, changed my life in many ways, not only the financial gains, but also my trading style. That was probably the most pivotable, pivotal, drastic shift. where, you know, I was watching the the one the main reasons that I got into crypto were

Uh, number one, we're approaching blue sky breakout all-time highs. And I know from my previous experience, that's when price discovery happens. That's when there's the most opportunity for hype and euphoria and gains. And then, you know, I'd get the the article of the banks are are, you know, looking at Ethereum for the potential and saying, okay, well, we've got the combination of potential, you know, future technology that people want to get in early on and all-time highs.

And so that is what got me interested. And, you know, I got to give a big shout out to one of my friends I was living with. He's an entrepreneur as well. And, you know, I I dipped my toes in with. maybe oh eight percent of my trading capital I put onto Coinbase and was like, all right, I'm getting into Ethereum. And I told my buddy this in the kitchen. And the next day he wakes up

comes into the kitchen and he says, I'm all in Ethereum. And that's just, you know, his style of of really aggressive all or nothing. And so I reflected on that, like, all right, I mean, I guess this is an opportunity where, you know, what do I have to lose? I'm going to go real aggressive here and And one of the fallbacks for me was always worst case scenario. If I lose this money, I just get a nine to five. And you know, I'm confident.

in having skill sets that would be, you know, able to get me a nine to five job to fall back on this is the route that my dad did. And I can do that as a worst case scenario. And just one thing to touch on to zoom out a little bit is I have to acknowledge the fact that. Uh my pay my dad paid for my college and that was, you know, a lot of people have this concept of, you know, are you self-made millionaires and things like that? Well, I've made every dollar that I have.

But I had the stage set because he paid for my school. I was able to take on risk and able to explore being a trader and, you know, risking my money in the online world. And if I was leaving college. with five figures of debt, there's no chance I'd be playing with penny stocks and and, you know, risking the little money that I have saved up through high school. So that is definitely, you know, psychologically had a a major impact on my ability to go more aggressive.

And keep that, you know, worst case scenario, I'll still be fine mindset. Hm, yeah, that was very generous of your father to pay for your education there. Prior to getting into crypto, uh, did you participate in any other sector bubbles? And were you partially influenced to get into crypto because you felt you missed out on the 3D printing bull run?

Uh it was, it was the, as I mentioned, the, you know, seeing the cannabis pump and dump, seeing the 3D printing pump and dump. Uh, it was a factor. It was. Again, just just knowing that when something new hits the markets, whether it's changing laws of cannabis or new technology of 3D printing, that's when there is the significant opportunity and things get a bit crazy.

And so it was, you know, it was almost, it wasn't FOMO in the sense of like, I can't miss this opportunity. It was more like, I've seen this setup before, I've seen this happen. And now that I've witnessed it a few times, and while I didn't capitalize back then. Uh, this is the time that I'm looking to capitalize. And in hindsight, after you know, 2017 went so well into 2018, it was almost reflecting back on my trading career and being like, man, the the the five years

leading up, I guess at that point it was uh closer to seven. The seven years of my trading career, it was literally all just preparing me for this one moment in terms of, you know, if if I tell anybody that wants to be a trader, this is how much money I made in my first seven years. Everybody would say, no, thanks, not for me, not worth it. And then it's just that that one moment that, you know, all those hours, all that preparation.

Just everything aligned to capitalize on that opportunity. And uh that was the the pivotal change for me, again, not only in capital, but uh shifting my trading style.

Mastering Crypto: Charts, Dips, Profit Taking

I see. So how did your trading style shift by getting into crypto? Like what did you do new and differently that you hadn't done in the past? So I started simplifying my charts. I I removed all the moving averages. Uh at that point in time on Coinbase, they had a default chart that was on their homepage. And it had EMA 12 and 26 on it. So I was almost forced to look at it. And I just noticed like, hmm, that comes into play a lot. The price is, you know, respecting EMA 12 a lot.

And so I ditched all my simple moving averages. I I took EMA 12 and 26 and started using it. And again, it was just all price levels at that point for pivots. And one of the the main ways that I was able to capitalize on the euphoria was I was still actively trading. You know, it wasn't just a buy and hold for me. Uh because of that, the amount of volatility, I mean, you know, you'd shoot up.

150% and you drop down 35%. And I I started to recognize patterns in what I call I call them now back burners, but it's when you're in a breakout market. First five minute oversold conditions very often marks your hourly higher low, going back to the time frame relationship. And then you get continuation to a new all-time high. So it was getting really good at buying the dips essentially based on using RSI and time frame trends.

to uh pinpoint those entries. And it even got to the point where it was so consistent that, you know, my my entrepreneur buddy who didn't know markets at all as far as a technical analysis perspective, I just told him like, if you're going to trade, just When this little line goes under 30 on the RSI, that's when you buy. And it just worked consistently until the top was hit.

And fortunately at that point, you know, I knew, you know, I I sold before the top. And of course, when you do that, you're gonna get everybody telling you you're wrong and buy and hold is the way to go and you're an idiot for selling early. But it's the kind of thing where it's like, you know, I'm content with my games.

And uh, you know, if I come across money that can change my life, I'm gonna lock that in. If it keeps running, that's great. There's ways that we can shift our perspective to have uh to view the same situation positively or negatively. And just a little example for that, you know, one of the things that I also did in crypto started to do was scale into and out of positions where previously, you know, with my account size, it was I'm either in the trade or I'm out of the trade.

And so then I learned, all right, you can break things up a little bit. And so just an example of mindset, you know, if I'm selling into a bull run and I sell half. And it keeps going up, I can psychologically say, great, I'm still making money. My net worth is still going up. I've still got half a position. And if if I sell half and it drops, I can say, great, I locked half in. I've got capital to to buy the dip if I want. And the exact same situation psychologically, I could say.

You know, I sell half, it keeps going up. Oh, I'm an idiot. I should have kept the whole position. I could have had this much money. Or if, you know, I sell half and it drops. Oh, I'm an idiot. I could have sold everything and had this much money. And that is literally up to the individual.

You are in control of that thought process. And so it's so important to stay on the positive side of things because it's very easy to get into a negative spiral and get down on yourself. And that definitely has an impact on your trading as well. I see. So scaling in and scaling out, is that a way to kind of protect yourself psychologically so that you don't feel so bad uh getting all out and then it rockets up higher and that you feel that you're still participating.

Yeah. And it's also, you know, the the egotistical realization is I'm not going to nail tops and bottoms. I should not have any expectation to nail tops and bottoms. That's going to be rare. And so if I'm scaling in and scaling out, I can get closer. To getting those tops and bottoms. And uh yeah, just just being, you know, more gentle with myself, essentially, where psychologically it was not as.

uh high stakes to to make one decision and then have you know your short term future ride on that one decision.

Navigating Crypto Cycles: Exits and Re-entries

I see. So um was there a point that you said you got out of crypto almost completely, like you almost entirely sold out? I got to a point where, you know, I I established some long term no touch positions is what I call'em, where, you know, I account for them as zero when I'm figuring out my personal financial situation. And I'm either gonna hold it for decades, like the, you know, I got

friends, grandparents who have double digit millions of dollars and they've been holding the same stock positions for decades. And so, all right, you know, if that works in crypto, I want to have a piece for that possibility. So I set that aside. It's not for trading. I literally don't touch it. And then, you know, everything else, which is the vast majority, I was exiting at that point. We that was the the run where we topped out at 19,000, but I was selling, you know, selling 16,000, 17,000.

Uh on the way up. And, you know, once we did top out, we very quickly returned back down into those mid to lower teens. So uh I was Essentially all out of my trading positions and all cash by the time Bitcoin had topped out. Did you jump back in in the 2020, 2021 uh bull market? I did and I was late. And and that's one thing that I tell newer traders is again, you don't have to nail the bottoms. That was

Uh, let's see, we flushed down to 3,000 during, you know, max fear. And um, I don't think I I re-entered until I had a technical setup that I was comfortable with. It's what I call an equilibrium, which is just a tightening range of higher lows and lower highs.

You know, constricting price action, constricting volume, they generally lead to uh a break and then a spike in volume and volatility, one direction or the other. And so I saw that shaping up. And at that point, we were trading, you know, around 11,000. So I was essentially, I missed.

From 3,000 to 11,000, multiple hundred percent off the lows, but saw the technical setup that I'm comfortable with and familiar with. I said, All right, that's good enough for me to establish a trade game plan around. My stop loss was close enough nearby. And went back in with size because you know, my support level and stop level were nearby, and was able to then benefit from the ride up from.

uh, you know, 11,000 up to the sixties and same kind of deal of, you know, in and out and always keeping some kind of core swing position, but uh with most of my capital at that point. uh getting really comfortable with just lock it in, just consistently keep locking it in because I mean once once you see these 90% plus pullbacks three, four, five times, it makes it a lot easier to lock in gains in Euphoria.

Identifying Market Bubbles and Correlations

At any time during the crypto bull run, uh, did you see evidence that you that was persuasive to you that, hey, this looks like it's really in a bubble market and I really need to scale back? um uh getting involved in that. Um, or did you not see signs of a significant bubble?

Yeah, and that's where social media comes into play. I mean, you're definitely in a bit of a bubble on social media where, you know, in my in the and in the real world as well, I've got friends that have nothing to do with markets and they're messaging me. That's always a good signal. If they're messaging me about Bitcoin and they never have before, okay, I know that that, you know, if I if I put that little piece of the puzzle in addition to huge volume, in addition to huge run up.

Uh, those are are all the little pieces of the puzzle coming together to create the picture that a temporary top, if not a longer term top, is likely coming sooner rather than later. And so, you know, I I say technical analysis, but there are a lot of factors outside of the charts, and that's where

Social media has changed the game and social media has gotten useful for again just little pieces of the puzzle. I can't look at Twitter and say, We're about to top, but I can combine it with other information and it can be useful. So traders often hear one sector or another frequently being labeled as a bubble, like AI, for example. Is there anything in the charts themselves that one can see that say, Oh yeah, this is clearly a bubble of

What what do you think of AI as a bubble? Or are there currently any bubbles that you're seeing? Yeah. Uh for me the chart number one, I need blue sky breakout, all time highs. I need I need a significant amount of gains in a short period of time. And I need euphoria where everybody is, you know. Counting the chickens before they hatch so to speak and uh just

Everybody's all celebrating together. And that's a really fun spot to be in in markets, but it is also a clue that it's time to take some profit. And so, you know, one of my better Calls this year was in May. People started talking about AI being a bubble. And I'm looking at these charts and saying, you know, I've seen a lot of bubbles.

And this these charts don't have any sign of a bubble for me. I mean, you know, you can look now at maybe NVDA and and uh the other large one, the the ticker is flipping my head, S C M I, S M C I, one of those. Um, they are, you know, the extreme all-time high runs that that would have me cautious. But then you got the other names like the stock AI, ticker symbol AI and PLTR, because they were coming out of a bear market.

uh 2022, you know, they had they had been just absolutely trashed over the last year plus before this little run got going. And so I'm looking at them in early May and saying, you know, I don't see an AI bubble. Uh, these names are only just coming off the bottom and there is definitely the potential for more.

And so at this point in time, you know, I don't really, you know, 2021 broader market definitely had bubble characteristics of again, euphoria, straight up off the lows, blue sky breakout, all-time highs. And at the point in time where we stand right now, I don't really see many bubbles out there. And that's because twenty twenty two did a good job of bringing a lot of things back to reality.

Uh, but AI is definitely one that I'm keeping my eye on. And I know that NVDA and that other one are going to top eventually and have, you know, 30% plus pullbacks fairly easily on the longer term timeframes, but just not ready quite yet. I'd like to transition to uh relationships and correlations. Uh in many of your videos, you often refer to the dollar index and its relationship to gold. You said a few times that uh you have to see dollar weakness to gain confidence as a crypto bull.

Why do you think crypto is heavily influenced by the dollar? Um, it would seem to imply that crypto is viewed as a safe haven asset, like gold is. Uh yeah, honestly, I I don't have a good answer. Uh I can speculate. And one of the things that I have developed as a trader is the question of why is

Down at the bottom of the list for me as to, you know, why is this going up? Why? Because I feel like a lot of people that are fundamentally focused, that question why gets them in a lot of trouble. Where, you know, why why is the SP 500 rallying the last six, eight months, whatever it is, while you know, this metric is so weak and this metric is so weak.

And uh so I like to view things as, you know, the why doesn't matter. It's the price is king. Whatever the price is doing, that is reality. And I know that's contradictory to a lot of the old school style of of, you know, trying to find value, but Uh that's that's a bit more of a meta conversation is, you know, what does value actually mean? But

Uh, one thing to, you know, a lot of people look at correlations and give up on them because they are always changing. And you gotta stay on top of it because they are so rapidly changing. But there are periods of time where correlations can give you really good clues. And so, you know, back

A few years ago, I wasn't paying attention to the dollar at all regarding Bitcoin and crypto. But now, you know, I look at every single period in 2023 where the dollar has seen A significant bounce on the weekly timeframe, they align with the the periods of significant weekly consolidation in Bitcoin.

And so, you know, why could that be? I think a lot of it has to do, I I noticed that the correlations really synced up, the the inverse correlation between the dollar and Bitcoin when we had the regional banking scare. I guess that was back in March, maybe. And uh that was because of the safe haven mindset where okay, if these regional banks are having a lot of trouble and your deposits aren't safe and you know

Where where are you going to put your money? Well, Bitcoin is potentially a life raft in that kind of situation. And so uh we saw a bit of an inverse relationship between the regional banks and Bitcoin. There were a couple of headlines that came out. Where, you know, the headline would lead to the regional banks dumping and Bitcoin would shoot up and say, okay, now after that happens two, three times, clearly there's now a pattern. And so it was almost like

uh the dollar just joined in on that. But I fully expect that the inverse relationship between the dollar and Bitcoin that is currently very strong will eventually uh fade a good bit and become a lot less relevant. And so you just have to uh you know Remind yourself not to attach to the correlation because it will change, it will strengthen, it will weaken, and it will completely disappear at times.

Advanced Correlation Analysis and Sizing

I see. So for correlations, do you look at when uh when there's a break in a correlation? Uh sort of like looking at a break in a stock that once it falls below certain key indicators, what have you? and doesn't seem to uh be rebounding uh back to the uh correlation that you you give up on that and you say, Well, okay, it's time to go find another correlation uh

'Cause they seem to change. I mean, depending on the time frame. Like for example, the correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq, for example. Uh, you know, for a while, uh they say, oh, Bitcoin is an uncorrelated asset to the market. And then in much of 2022, it said, Oh, it doesn't represent a diversification because now it's highly correlated with a NASDAQ, like a ninety percent correlation.

But it it seems to, when I look at it, uh vary significantly b between the time frame that's chosen. So for example, the first three months of of uh Uh This year, it showed a decoupling for Bitcoin as it greatly outperformed to the upside. But then the following three months, showed a significant declines for Bitcoin while the NASDAQ continued to climb. When you look at various correlations uh between stocks within the same sector or, you know, Bitcoin to the dollar of the gold, what have you.

What timeframes do you look at to determine the relative under or overvaluation to each other? And when do you just kind of pull the plug on that correlation? Yeah, that's a good question. I would say uh there there are even times where I was watching the five minute time frame with the inverse relationship between, you know, the dollar and Bitcoin and it was tick for tick. You know, it didn't last very long in terms of it didn't last weeks, but

Uh, when when I recognize that there is a correlation to pay attention to, I just use it again, a little piece of the puzzle. I'm not making trade decisions solely based on that information. I'm using it as a piece of the puzzle in my, you know, analysis. I'll use Other things as well, support and resistance and

Um, I will focus on it while it's there. And then once, you know, I I don't really have a set period of time uh as to how far it has to disappear before I give up on it. But as traders, you know, we have a certain amount of mental bandwidth.

And there's opportunity costs of that mental bandwidth. And so, you know, once once it no longer serves me, I will ditch it and uh keep an eye out for other things and, you know, check back in on it every now and again, but not watch it as closely as I was previously. And you're right, you know, the Bitcoin

Correlation with the Nasdaq has been constantly shifting. And one thing that I've found uh really well with short-term correlations, whether it's, you know, if I'm watching the Nasdaq and Tesla for day trades, the number one reason a correlation will shift. And you know, completely disappear or things like that will be the individual name hitting a very key support or resistance level. So quick example, let's say Tesla.

And the Nasdaq are dropping on the five minute timeframe, tick for tick, doing the same thing, little five minute bear flag, new lows. And then Tesla heads down to, you know, the low of last week and the Bulls play a little bit of defense at that price support level. Then you'll see the correlation start to fade a little bit where, okay, wait a second, Tesla's not hitting a new low of the day. And on the last

three two minute candles, Kika Q has hit a new low of the day, all three of those candles. And so that tells me, all right, there's a little bit of relative strength now starting to form. And I will use that in my day trading where I'll then say, okay. Well, Tesla is positioned well if the NASDAQ were to put in a temporary bottom here. And so that will often be an indicator where I will then jump into Tesla, you know, place my stop a bit under the low of the day at that point and say,

Well, KKQ is, you know, the five minute RSI at this point is down in the teens and we're due for a short term bounce. And the fact that Tesla is now trading sideways, it's almost like it's waiting for the NASDAQ to get that little oversold bounce going. And uh that has definitely become a larger part of my short-term trading strategy uh as a as a day trader.

I see. And so will you increase your position size to reflect your uh increased bullishness on these short-term correlations that say maybe temporarily way out of whack? And you see kind of like a more mean reversion. um to more normal levels, will that influence your position sizing or do you do a fairly standard position sizing for each trade?

It can. I'm I'm fairly standard with my position sizes. There are times where, you know, as I mentioned, scale in, scale out. So if I'm scaling in two positions, Um, you know, maybe I'll if I'm less confident in a setup, I'll only do one. And then if I'm more confident in a setup,

Uh maybe I'll just enter both at the same time if my stop level is close by. A lot has to do with calculating risk in terms of, you know, the way I approach risk is I have a dollar amount, which is my what I call a day maker level, like my goal of what I want to make.

consistently and I'll have a level where if I lose this much on the day, I'm done. I cut the cord because the last thing I want to do is, you know, go on tilt and and lose track of myself. Um and so, you know, if my stop level is close by, I can put on a larger position size. And, you know, keep my dollar risk the same than if the stop was further away. And, you know, maybe I have to shrink my position size a bit to have that same dollar risk.

So when you look at stocks and their correlations, say within a particular sector, um, will you overweight a long swing position, say, in a financially weak small caps when a bull run starts because of past outperformance? over the larger, more financially stable companies. And one sector that comes to mind uh right now as we're recording this is the marijuana sector, uh, where I noticed that the uh very liquid um company called Tilray.

uh is up less than many of the other marijuana stocks. So currently Tilray is up 4%, and many of the other marijuana stocks are up, you know, double digit percentage. Would you look at this um type of correlation? Would you say, oh, uh Tilray is up less than the uh other stocks, the other more um speculative uh lower liquidity stocks? So

It's a good time to go long till ray. Or would this be a red flag for you? Say, well, if if the till ray as a more bigger leader is not up that much relative to the broader sector, that's a red flag. How would you look at this? That means I should have held on to my till ray short from this morning a little bit longer if it's only up four percent at this point, but

Uh, I would take it as a bit of a red flag. And it's definitely uh liquidity is the the issue here where Tilray is traded on the higher exchanges. I think it's the MYSE and you know, a lot of these other stocks are still. uh trading on the OTC. And so when momentum gets going, you know, there's within a sector there are uh lower cap names that have higher risk, higher reward. They're gonna dump

harder in weakness and they're gonna run harder in strength. So it's almost like allocating, you know, okay, if I'm playing a sector move, I want to have X amount of capital. in the very liquid names where I'm nice and comfy. And then, you know, a certain amount of the capital I want to have higher risk and higher reward with. And I will put that into the less liquid names knowing that

uh their percentage moves can definitely be magnified. But again, it is in both directions. And so, you know, if if Tilray is showing us signs that we're topping out here, um, then we're gonna anticipate that. Some of these less liquid names can easily, you know, drop significant percentage as well. So if T L R Y is topping out uh today, I'm gonna be looking for the other names to potentially top out tomorrow.

Mm-hmm. Uh you've said in your videos that um, you know, what is a bull thinking with this chart and what is a bear thinking? How often do you engage in these? type of thought exercises. And does this exercise help you more easily switch from a long to short and vice versa as conditions change because you're conditioning your brain to be flexible?

Absolutely. Yeah, I do that all the time. Uh it helps from getting tunnel vision and missing something. And you know, if you've got a bi a bias and you're only looking in this one direction. I found it, you know, very easy to to miss easy signs where, you know, if I didn't have the position on and didn't have the bias, I would have seen that very easily. And so I am always, you know, if if I'm in a long position or I'm looking long for a trade setup.

You know, what what would I be looking at if I'm a bear? And oftentimes it'll be a prolonged downtrend of lower highs and lower lows. And I'll look at a chart and say, am I, you know, do I want to look long here? And well, if I'm a bear, I have absolutely no reason to cover right now. And we would have to, you know, take out this level for me to even consider taking some profit on a bearish swing trade. So yes, it's absolutely uh a put puts me in a frame of reference and a mindset.

that allows to uh diminish that bias regardless of of the position that I'm holding.

The Critical Role of Trading Psychology

I notice you frequently mention short covering potential uh once overhead resistance is broken as giving additional fuel to the upside. To what degree, if any, do you factor in short interest levels and do you favor going long stocks that have a high short interest once resistance is broken? I definitely pay attention a lot more after the GME situation. I that was a an eye opener, like, okay. And that was almost, you know, we reached a period where

The market was just headhunting shorts where it didn't matter, you know, the fundamentals didn't matter at all. All that mattered was, uh, you know, it doesn't matter the sector or anything like that. If there's high short interest. You know, the Wall Street bets crowd is going to go after this name. And so I do pay attention to it in the sense that.

You know, I look at a chart and if if one direction has had control for a very prolonged period of time and there's a lot, let's just say it's a bear control and there's a lot of short interest. I know that, all right, you know, I know how markets work and these bears are getting very Uh, lazy or they're getting you f are complacent, is the word I use. They're they're very complacent because it's been very easy for them to make money for such a long period of time.

And we know how quickly the scales can tilt between supply and demand of stock. And uh if there is a high short interest, I know that it will be. uh almost like competition of of buying at the ask. The Bulls will be buying at the ask and the Bears will have to do it as well if they're gonna cover and not get blown up. So I definitely pay attention. You know, I won't

I won't base an entire trade strategy around it. Again, back to the pieces of the puzzle. There's just a handful of things that I'll be looking at, different indicators, different social sentiments. And they all are just little factors into what sets up uh whether I want to to enter a trade or not. I'd like to transition to uh psychology. Uh you've said that reflecting upon the conversations going on in your head. Could you expand on that a little bit?

Yeah, that goes back to to high school and college psychology courses of just, you know, learning about the the id and the ego and all these different things. And uh it's it's really I call it zooming out where I want to zoom out and observe what's going on in my brain because, you know, as full-time traders, a lot of people think, well, you just don't fear.

feel FOMO anymore or don't feel fear. And it's not that I completely erase these emotions from, you know, my my body and brain. It's that I'm able to recognize, I'm able to say, I just had this thought. And this thought tells me that I'm feeling FOMO. And so I'm not going to act on this trade because I know that acting on FOMO is not a good thing. And so it's almost like keeping yourself in check where you're constantly observing. And I highly suggest, and this is one of the aspects where

Becoming a better trader, if you're really in this, it it imp makes you a better person, in my opinion. Where, you know, I can't remember the last time I got mad. I can't remember the last time I lost my temper. And that's because any situation where that would potentially happen, I do that zoom out and I reflect and say, all right, I just, you know, felt my face get hot. And that's happening because this happened and triggered it. And it's almost like it forces you to

To pause. You know, some people like to count to 10 or whatever to ensure that they're not emotionally reacting or lashing out in anger and to take the time to reflect on why you're feeling a certain way, you're doing that. And And you have to constantly be observing the thought process that's going on in your head to understand why we as humans are doing the things that we're doing. And as we know, you know, trading is so much about psychology, learning technical analysis.

You know, anybody can do it if you put in enough time to just study and learn the concepts, but really what makes or breaks people is their ability to uh to tackle the psychological aspect of things.

Obsession, Balance, and Visualization for Success

Uh you've also also mentioned that balance is important for traders. Uh, how did this realization develop for you? Yeah, and I refine that a little bit in in the sense that, you know, I always say balance is key and you got to get out in nature and get off the screen and and not become, you know, completely overwhelmed with it.

And that's absolutely the case. But then I reflect back and think about myself and my journey and every full time trader that I know. I've got a handful of of friends that are full time traders as well. We all had a period of obsession. You have to have that period of obsession for, you know, a significant period of time if you're going to be able to put in the thousands of hours that are required if you're going to do this for real and seriously.

And so, you know, it's almost like, yeah, you got to stay balanced, but I understand that there is a period of completely out of balance. You know, I I personally, the amount of of time that I put in 10 to 12 hours every day on the computer for years. I mean, we reached the point in 2017, Bitcoin crypto, uh, where I was completely shaping my sleep schedule where I would wake up every three hours. I'd set my alarm and I'd wake up and I'd see if the trade opportunity had presented itself.

And it got to the point where it was, you know, I hope Bitcoin tops because this is not sustainable. And, you know, I'm going to capitalize on this opportunity while it's here because I know it won't last.

But this is very unsustainable. And so, you know, it I would say that when you're learning, you've got to have the period of obsession, but then you get to a point where that obsession is unsustainable and you've got to set uh limits to ensure that you can do this over decades because the last thing we want to do is burn out after you know eight years and uh you know we're we're in this game for ideally many decades.

Did you ever find yourself wishing that uh Bitcoin only traded when stocks did and uh and didn't trade twenty four hours a day, seven days a week? Absolutely. In twenty seventeen that was, you know, I I hope we top and it would be really nice if we could have breaks. That was, you know, it's a a double edged sword for sure because I was uh, you know, that seven month period from May to December was just

Insane in terms of the amount of time and effort. And, you know, it's one of my best accomplishments as a trader was. outperforming by by trading the significant volatility, I was able to look back and say, well, I I performed a decent bit better than if I had just bought and hold and sold the exact top. And so that told me it was worth it. to be putting in all this time and effort, but again, unsustainable.

You've also mentioned about visualizing your trading and your personal life. Do you find that the act of visualization helps you to uh get to your goals? Yeah, I think uh I think there's a lot of There's a lot that science does not understand. And there's two ways to look at this. You can look at it the woo-woo, you know, spiritual way, or you can look at it as a logical way. And for me, visualization is key. It's had a major impact in a lot of my life. You know, after my roommate said

I'm going all in Ethereum. I sat in a hot tub and I really thought out and said, you know, what's this going to look like? And all right, I'm going to put in this much money and I'm going to get uh a down payment of the house and it's going to hit blue sky breakout and just, you know, laying out what I want to see happen.

And the woo-woo way is, you know, we create our reality with our mindsets and, you know, you can go down that whole rabbit hole. The logical way is, you know, if I have a goal that I want to work towards and a way that I want something to play out. A simple example would be let's say I'm having a cookout next week and I'm inviting a bunch of friends over the house.

I there's a certain way that I want it to play out. I want to make sure I have enough food. I want to make sure there's activities. And so I visualize what I want it to look like in my brain in advance. And then I just lay out a checklist. All right. I need to do this, this, this, and this. And then I just complete that checklist. And then, you know, the thing that I visualized in my head is very close to what the reality ends up being. And I honestly I think it's

It's a bit of both. I think there is a lot with our consciousness that science does not understand at this point. And so I don't think it hurts. You know, visualize the reality that you want to create. Uh put yourself in a calming spot where you're able to completely focus on it. And uh it certainly can't hurt.

Personal Growth and Defining Trading Moments

Yeah, I've heard the law of attraction uh fits into this philosophy as well. Uh, what do you struggle with most as a trader? At this point in time, I have it so ingrained in my DNA to wake up and check the markets first thing and check Twitter and you know the routine that I've been doing for every single day for at this point. Many years.

Uh it's ingrained in my DNA. And, you know, if you ask me, I've I have a very fortunate life. I'm in shape physically. What's the most unhealthy thing in my life? It's trading. It's the amount of screen time that I'm putting in. And so I again it goes back to the balance and I haven't done a great job of of of that balance.

Um, but that is, I would say, what I struggle with most is finding the off switch uh to be able to completely detach from not just, you know, trading, which I'm able to do, but the social media aspect of things and just completely unplug and and go out camping for three days and and be able to completely leave this aspect of my life behind. That's something that I've definitely been working on over the past couple of years. How has the last uh few years in trading um been for you?

It's definitely a a shift where, you know Euphoria crypto 2017 and then Euphoria Everything 2021. And so, you know, had a real good year 2021, exceeding all my goals multiple times and was again, you know, if I'm looking at My returns from a technical analysis perspective, it's oh, you know, this might be a blow off top kind of bubble, and I don't want that to happen.

So essentially I always talk about pumping the gas and pumping the brakes. And so I intentionally started to pump the brakes. And then once it became clear that we were entering a bear market. You know, my mindset was, okay, I've never experienced this before. And I know from my 3D printing days that I have to experience something and watch it play out if I'm going to be able to capitalize on it. So I didn't try and kid myself and say, all right, I'm going, you know, aggressive.

in in this mindset, whether long or short. Uh, because I knew it was new to me. And so that was almost like putting myself in a bit of a timeout and saying, nope, you're gonna observe this bear market. You're still gonna trade it, just smaller position sizes and less frequent trading. But this is this one's for observance.

And so I now know that the next bear market that we see, I'm going to capitalize on. And there were things about this 2022 bear market where, you know, I watched our going back to correlations, I watched Our weaker sectors drop first and then the strongest sectors, I watched them

roll over as bear laggards. And, you know, I've seen bear markets in crypto and bear markets in 3D printing, but I've never seen a whole market bear market that acted that way with the the sectors following each other to significant downside. And so I look forward to whenever the next significant bear market is, I have a lot more confidence in my ability to capitalize on that. But the last couple of years is definitely slowdown mode for me. And again, the number one, you know, I reach.

a a point in my trading career where I was very fortunate uh to exceed a lot of the goals that I had financially. And again, that's a lot in part due to crypto. And then that went right into Canadian cannabis hype and And um for me, my priority shifted where it's no longer, you know, there was a period where it was make as much as I can. And now the the number one priority is do not lose what I've made. You know, I I view it as I've won the trading game.

And I don't want to give any of that back. And so I'll keep adding icing on the cake as I'm able and, you know, keep going for those base hits. But I have definitely shifted significantly from extremely aggressive 2017, aggressive 2018 cannabis, aggressive. 2021 and the last two years, uh, a lot more conservative mindset, you know, exploring I bonds and T bills and all these concepts that I would have had zero interest in when my number one priority was make as much as possible.

You shared early on about uh your lowest point of a trader back when you gave up all that profit in that um in that mining company uh from seven thousand or from seven thousand to forty thousand, I think you said, and then back you kind of lost it. Uh lost it all. What about your highest point as a trader? Oh man. Uh there were a few of those from the crypto

Uh let's see. There was a a day in crypto. I hit a a a profit amount that was my annual goal in a day. You know, my prior my prior annual goal. Of, you know, if if I do this for a living, I had a moment in I guess maybe 2013 where it's I can do this for a living. I want to make X amount of dollars. If I make this amount a year, I've got the life that I want to live. And I hit that in a day with Bitcoin.

Um, and then there was another one where I hit, you know, 20% of that in literally a two minute bounce trade. And it was just like, this isn't even real at this point. It almost was like dissociating from reality. Um, and and then there was another point where, you know, I took my crypto profits before the top.

And I rolled a significant amount, you know, I looked at the setup and said, There's no way that crypto tops right into a Canadian cannabis run because Canada was legalizing. And I took a massive amount of my profits and put it into those names. And that's that's the best trade of my

uh life just in the sense that I took that profit and then went into the next hype market that followed it shortly thereafter and you know doubled those gains again. And it was just uh again, all the stars aligning of this is But it ended up being that perfect and uh again just you know complete euphoria. But that's the that's

where we got to zoom out and recognize I'm feeling euphoria right now. I might be feeling invincible. And this is where it would be really easy to get back a lot of my profits. So uh making sure that we're keeping tabs of on ourselves. in in all kinds of emotional states. Yeah. Yeah, the power of self observation uh key there as well.

I felt really moved by one of your videos describing your proudest moment as a trader as you were offered a ten thousand dollar gift from a grateful whale trader that you helped out, but You refuse the gift, knowing that you can do it yourself. Yeah, that was that was a big one. Um in that was there was a that was 2013 or 14, uh one of the bigger cannabis penny stock runs. And, you know, at that point, I think I took

maybe 15,000 to 100,000 and was just, you know, that was euphoria for me. Absolutely. And so this individual who made, I think he made a million dollars during that run. Uh, we know we were all hanging out in a chat room. We got to know each other. you know, talking about his kids and all that. And um, so yeah, he offered me, you know, 10% of my net worth uh for helping him out. And

It was just that reflection of, you know, I just, I just made a significant amount of money. I'm feeling really good and confident about everything. You know, you've got a bunch of kids. I wouldn't feel uh right taking that money. And in hindsight, I'm very glad about that because unfortunately. Uh, this individual held on to a lot of the penny stocks and gave back a ton of those profits. And so I definitely would have had a bunch of guilt around that had I taken it. But

Uh yeah, that was that was a big moment, defining moment for me in terms of my own confidence. That was about the time where, you know, I can remember around that time, I I remember walking out of my bedroom. I was visiting my dad at that point, and I said, you know, with full confidence and certainty, I'm gonna be a millionaire. Like I just, I just know it. Like I'm going to be a millionaire. And that was uh again, visualization and and that aspect of things.

And that's the kind of confident mindset that I was in that allowed me to uh pass on that gift.

Life Beyond Trading: Farming and Community

Hmm, fantastic. Yeah. Congratulations. Uh I notice also from your videos that you're uh you're rather big into farming and and you have uh quite a few different uh animals on your farm. Is that uh do you like being a farmer? I do. And and at the moment I've I've downsized the animals as I bounced around. Really what it was when we uh, you know, started when I started going full time into trading, I was

uh staying in a community home with my entrepreneur friend that I talked about. And I was the farm manager where uh I was keeping my cost of living really low, rent-free, by, you know, doing the garden and taking care of the pigs and the goats and the chickens and the ducks and So every day I would wake up with the sun and milk the goats and and take care of everything and then go back to the computer. And it was just the perfect balance where I could literally, you know, walk.

200 feet outside of where I was trading and be surrounded by this little farm oasis. And so that really helped with the balance a lot. uh and perspective, keeping everything in perspective in terms of, you know, what what's most important in life because it's very easy to get caught up in a win or a loss. And, you know, the importance that society puts on uh monetary value, but

Uh, just always staying grounded and remembering that there is so much else out there. So yeah, farming uh always has had a significant impact in my life. And I love it really, you know, the the the the past. four years, that's my life is if I'm not trading or out in the garden growing food, uh, I mean, that's ninety percent plus of of what I do in my life. Yeah, well thanks for coming on uh Chat with Traders, Dan. Absolutely. It's been a blast. I appreciate you having me.

Yeah, how can our listeners get in touch with you? On Twitter, we're at chartguys and of course, you know, chartguys.com, the website. You've got uh our YouTube channel has I think we're pushing 10,000 videos at this point. Uh, you know, a lot of them are not relevant anymore because they were going over the market, but a ton of them are are lessons and concepts. We've got the playlists about psychology and emotional control. Uh so go to chart guys on YouTube and

Go through those playlists. There are dozens of hours of useful information. Yeah, great. Uh I've certainly gotten uh benefit from watching your videos. Uh thanks again. Thanks for having me. You've And zero. if you leave a race Chat with traders.

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