Poilievre Trolls Carney With Help From A.I.

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I'm James Nicholson. Usually I'm the producer, but today I'm on the mic to talk shit about the news. We'll talk about Doug Ford's bold vision for the Toronto waterfront, maximum jet traffic. We'll talk about a journalist suing Rogers. It's about to get messy, but mostly we'll talk about whether or not we're technically in a technical recession. Frankly, it's bad news either way, even if the conservatives are having a bit of fun with it.

We're homeless.

Only technically homeless.

Oh okay.

Wait for that.

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Hello, sir.

The country reported a zero point one percent decrease in gross domestic product GDP for the first quarter of twenty twenty six, marking now two consecutive quarters of a contraction in the economy.

Well, look, the technical definition of a technical recession is just that.

This is not a recession. I don't even know where this idea of technical recession came from.

We were all saddened to learn on Friday that Canada was the only country in the G seven to have fallen into a recession.

Big transformations, they don't happen overnight, they take some time.

A long way until the policies we've seen from our federal government start to really impact growth and make Canadians feel like we're coming out of dark.

work or time.

Canada is the only G seven economy that is short.

Shrinking.

I think what we're seeing again and again is that the Canadian economy is proving more resilient.

I got laid off today.

Don't worry, Daddy. You're only technically unemployed.

Douglas, I'll admit it. I'm not a business reporter, but I did graduate undergrad and face down the great recession of 2008. I did Yeah. I did what I had to do to weather the storm. And by that I mean grad school. But I I know enough about recessions to know that any kind of recession should be feared and avoided at all costs. I'm talking gum recessions. I'm talking hairline recessions. Truly. I'm even talking about what Christopher called a vibe session in twenty twenty four.

A lot of economists have been talking about the vibe session and the fact that Canadians just aren't feeling good and that that is having real economic consequences.

Which required immediate concrete action in the form of a GST holiday, which obviously made a big impact. But in the last couple of weeks, a new form of recession is entering the headlines here in Canada, the technical recession. So this started when Statistics Canada estimated a 0.2% decline in growth in the fourth quarter of 2025, followed by a 0.1% drop in the first quarter of 2026. which makes it two consecutive quarters of flat or negative growth.

Do we have a pun driven media environment here in Canada where they're just like we just have an opportunity of some really great headlines, so let's run with this story.

People are really making hay with this. The punning, like the word technical, really inspired headline writers across this great country of ours. Douglas, you cover tech. Tech is a business. By that logic, that makes you a business reporter. Yeah. Be my guide. Help me understand this technical recession and whether we should all be afraid of it.

A couple important caveats. Not an economist. liberal arts major and I'm a business reporter of businesses that keep their finances private and their basic strategy is spend money to make money, hopefully. Yeah. So I'm gonna do my best. I will note this is

I also heard the R B C economist saying like These two quarters of flat or negative growth are a precondition to potentially say it's a recession. A lot of caveats.

A lot of technicalities. But even if this was a real thing and the definition of a recession was confirmed and standardized. All that is is just an index of national economic health. And we know that Canada isn't economically healthy.

Right.

Yeah. So any dithering Fonhein Leid's aside on whether it's technically true or technically not true just obfuscates from the conversation of like what's gonna be done, who's responsible, and how it's going. Yeah.

I do see the dithering, the sort of picking into this Toronto Star, Jim Stanford. A technical recession is more about politics than economics. There's no doubt Canada's economy is facing tough times, he writes, but whether GDP growth is slightly above zero or slightly below is irrelevant.

Yeah,'cause the economy's not growing either way.

Yeah, I feel like we're litigating this term recession, which there's no standardized definition, and then C P Howe, who's the institute who unofficially determines recession or not. They're saying they haven't seen the indications of a recession here.

Will say it's certainly more accurate than a vibe session. Shout outs to Christian Freeland. You lived your life like a candle in the wind. But it's there is at least an attempt to triangulate what's going on here. But we know that the macro and the vibes are not good right now.

Yeah, and that's the more important bit. Once that starts to be the word used that does have greater consequences, political, vibes based. It does drive different behavior. I'm seeing Vashy Capitalist and also the Global Mail here referring it to it the scary R word. The R word. I don't know if we should be using our word in that way, but there's the sense of doom and gloom that when this specific word.

Also been at an all time high.

Yes, they had been. Maybe that's just inevitable, but some interesting parts of this particular polling is Today, forty percent of Canadians believe the country is headed in the right direction. That was at 47% two weeks ago. I imagine it's hard to quantify optimism, but you can do polling on it, which they have, and they're suggesting that. Over the last couple weeks, this really has had an actual impact, a measurable impact on Canadians' optimism.

The entire time you were talking, I was just thinking about whether or not this is uh fear of a hard R recession and what that might mean. But I think we shouldn't diminish the fact that that would just be through data, through this index, a confirmation of all the fears that Canadians have had over the last Two or so years about the state of the country and the leverage that is being applied to us and how we might.

It's interesting to see Carney's response to this, and he has addressed this somewhat. He says the economy is going through a quote settling in period.

Just easing in.

This government's been in the process of laying the foundations for a stronger, more resilient, more independent Canadian economy. That process uh is settling in.

Like

What are we settling into? The inevitability? You know, he says that it's almost this lag period between the stimulating policies he's instituted and the impacts they have.

As we do all that.

the the data is going to be uneven.

But to me, this is settling into the reality that when there's a disruption with your largest trade partner, it's gonna have economic impacts.

The economic circulation has been cut off a bit, so you gotta walk around the block. to loosen up the drawstrings of our economy or something like that. Yeah. You would expect like our economist in chief to be a little bit more Wonkyan response, but I actually think it's probably a smart political tactic to kind of stay away from this. I also think he believes he is.

And I wanted to mention that. We have two things happening at once. We have Carney in New York saying that a strong Canada makes America great again.

Be absolutely clear. Canada strong will help make America great again.

And then we have Trump posting the Bloomberg headline about the technical recession, saying fifty first state. And then we have the US ambassador to Canada, Pete Hokstra, reposting that. And he was asked about this and he gave the shaggy defense, which is it wasn't me. He says, We repost everything from the president about Canada and I don't actually manually do the reposting.

Oh gee scoobs, these uh foreign diplomatic relations are really complicated, huh? That's my best Shaggy. I'm sorry.

No, I mean the Shaggy, the artist.

Oh, oh, that it wasn't me. Sorry.

For me that's the shaggy defense. But I should have been more clear.

Okay. Well I'm not gonna do that shaggy impersonation.

Have the baritone for that. Uh no. But then he did get asked about Canada becoming the 51st state. And he said that's a great discussion for the president and the prime minister to have.

I haven't talked about the fifty first state much. There's not many people who are talking about it anymore. But it's kinda like Yeah, that's a great disc if if that's a discussion to be to be had, it's a discussion to to be had initially between the President of the United States and the Prime Minister of Canada.

This shows that the specter of the recession, just the word in the headline, does have real impacts. We're in the middle of a trade negotiation. And this is a specter hanging over Carney. There's also the fact that, as you mentioned, he is an economist. So it's the perfect stick to beat them with if the economy isn't doing well. Um, so there are stakes to this moment, and maybe that's why everyone is so fixated on litigating whether recession should be in the headline or not, because it has

I will say I do think Tweet and Pete here should be sent home and kicked out of our country. Right.

So they ask me, Do you understand why we're mad about the 51st state? But I say, no, I don't understand that. And then they get mad at me.

Absolutely understand why he's not because again, this is a question of leverage. And in a negotiation, leverage is what you can get in the negotiation. These things are tangible and real. But back to I think the focus on the technicalities. is the beginning of a gotcha cycle or a horse race cycle.

All right, stick around. After the break, we'll talk about why it's not just Trump and Pete Hoekstra who seem excited about Canada's technical recession. Olivev and the conservatives seem giddy to seize on this opportunity to dunk on Carney, and they're using a little help from generative AI. This episode is brought to you by Fizz Mobile. Douglas, like many Canadians, you're smart. You have a phone. Tell me, why are smartphone plans so dumb in this country?

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Calls coming from inside the house.

The call is coming from inside the house. Pierre Polyev has been m maybe giddy about this, some might say, in his public statements.

You are making excuses and trying to hide. from the reality that Mark Carney has given Canada the worst economy in the G seven, and it's time to stop making excuses, not for political reasons. It's time to stop making those excuses because this is people's lies.

in his question period, comments.

Why is it that only Canada, after a year of Mark Carney, is in a recession. Well you could ask him that question. But he won't take any of your questions. He's hiding from you.

You know, a couple tweets as we're shouting out tweets. Mark Carney can run, but he can't hide from the liberal recession he created. He also said no wonder Canada is the only G twenty country in recession. He's the banker who can't budget. So he's having fun with this, but he's having a new kind of fun. with this AI attack ad that was released. And this is very unique.

Proud and giddy. Proud and giddy.

So this ad it starts with a news clip.

Breaking economic news this morning, real GDP has declined for a second consecutive quarter, meaning the definition of a technical recession.

And then there's an old clip that's been circulating about Kearney talking about the technical definition of a technical recession. Well

Look, the technical definition of a technical recession is just that. It's two quarters of flat or negative growth.

Uh, this is standard attack ad stuff, but then something interesting happens. Generative AI scenes start. So there's three scenes that are pretty clearly generative AI. There's a couple in line at the food bank. And then they're saying like

We haven't eaten today.

Yeah, we're only technically hungry though. Then there's a guy coming home to his family with a cardboard box.

I got laid off today.

Don't worry, Daddy, you're only technically unemployed.

And then they all hug and sort of laugh. And then there's a couple at the bank hearing that their home is being repossessed. We have to repossess your home because you can't pay your mortgage.

Honey, we're homeless.

Only technically homeless.

Oh

Okay.

And then it ends with a real clip of Carney avoiding a question about the economy. It's a weird blending of real clips and generative AI clips. They do add a very small watermark in the corner right-hand corner that says AI generator. What did you think of this?

I'm gonna start right off the top by saying objectively quite funny.

Okay.

Good meme. I will also say earlier this week I was on Cannonland talking about the AI strategy and how it's omnipresent in Canadian life and global life is a really good example. Back in the day when you wanted to do a a political attack ad, you had to like script something, hire actors or find a family to represent it and run with your best idea. For writers' rooms of political attack ads, you can just

I thought it was interesting'cause there's also this slippage in Polyev's framing where he's now saying We're in a full blown recession. That's something he's using. To your point about the giddiness, this is something that even some conservative talking heads like Fred DeLore, who's a C B C power and politics, talking head. No, he's not the biggest polyev boot. But he kinda makes a similar point that

Problematic when you choose to go down that road that Polyev has chosen to go down so aggressively, um almost like he's rooting for a recession.

There's like a solemnness and there's a tone that should be used because this is serious stuff as we talked about before and this is serious concern. To the point of this generative AI attack ad, I do wonder if the quickness, the efficiency to which you can generate an ad means that you're maybe going with something

Thinking through what you're doing.

You're not thinking through what you're doing. But at the same time it has such utility and such efficiency. A politician could have something happen to them one day. There could be an attack ad generated that same day.

Yeah. And that's the inside baseball of the political media machine that doesn't really relate to the state of the country. CBC at issue had a great panel conversation about this, and they were openly wondering why Polyev wasn't keeping his powder drive for the economy to get worse. 'Cause again, this could easily turn back on him when it goes from a full blown recession to positive numbers.

Maybe not the AI.

Maybe not the AI, but they would be hammering this as a talking point. But you're totally right. The tone and approach matters and is indicative of how serious you are as a political leader versus steward of the country.

Yeah, and the AI ad, the tone of it is maybe the most egregious example of taking shots, but in this playful, unserious way.

still making fun of people losing their homes. There was a story that just came out this week indicating that ten percent of Toronto mortgages up for renewal next year will not be able to be renewed because Canadians don't have the capacity to do that.

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Douglas, we like to dually note stories on this show so they don't get overlooked. Do you have something you would like to dually note today?

Oh, I do, sir. Keeping on the theme of economics, it is a statement of fact. that Doug Ford has costed Ontarians Large sums of money. There's the$225 million to the beer store and the hundreds of million dollars lost in LCBO revenue in expanding the privatized beer and liquor sales. You've got the$231 million spent to rip up.

Moving call to action.

Yeah. This is weird. Let's pull back the curtain for a second. Normally if I was doing this with Jesse, I would be like, James, play the thrilling music. But I'm doing this with you. Can we put some thrilling music behind me?

I could still play it. Yeah. Yeah. Absolutely. Duly noticed. All right, Douglas, I have an update on a story that also includes Doug Ford in a different way.

Interesting.

From a different angle. This is in Toronto Life. Ex-City News reporter Tina Yazdani is suing Rogers for six hundred and fifty thousand. Subhead is this is about to get messed. Now this is a story we've been following for a little while now. Tina Yas Danny was a reporter for City News, covered Queen's Park, was terminated with cause on April second. She didn't really say much about her dismissal, obviously was upset about it and gestured that a lawsuit was coming. Now we have

Premier, can you please uh answer my question? Multiple attempts for answers. Premier Premier Ford. Premier, would you mind just taking my questions? But no accountability. Premier Doug Ford refused to take our questions in Buffalo on an unraveling scandal involving his government.

This story was eventually removed from City News' website after this all sort of blew up.

Is a pretty major decision for any publication to ever pull.

a story. That's a big thing. She wasn't notified about it, she says. And Rogers spokesperson, of course, is saying that they're gonna vigorously defend these allegations, these baseless allegations. And that there were repeated breaches of news and social media policies that did not meet journalistic standards. That changed the tone and context of a politician's remark. Now, Yazdani, in her claim, she says.

It's interesting. We've talked a lot about memes on this podcast. There's a great if for the NBA fans out there, it's the NBA finals right now, there's this great NBA meme of Brian Windhorse. Uh reporter holding his fingers into the air and just hmm, why would it be the case that after the fact, in coverage of Ontario politics? There might be some issues with that reporting and coverage. I encourage everyone to check out that meme. I thoroughly enjoy it.

And it often does. How many times have you seen that in news stories? Absolutely.

In fact, Sandra Martin, who's the I believe the public editor of the Globe Mail, just wrote a great piece. about the difference between in person, over the phone, email or text interviews and how just the format of the communication can change the context of the reporting. And that's the kind of inside baseball that I think we should share more as journalists for our audience so they can understand if someone's just

That's our show for today. Thanks, Douglas, so much for joining me. You can email me about it at james at CanadaLand.com. I read everything you send. You can also find me posting on the Canada Land Discord. Douglas Saltis, where can people find you?

You can find my works on Batekit.com. You can check out the award-nominated Baitekit podcast. And then you can find me engaging with all sorts of memes online at Tron.

This episode is produced by Andrea Varsini. The associate producer is Callan Lyons, who also did the fact-checking. Mixing and mastering by Caleb Thompson. Our director of audio is Max Collins. The editor and publisher of Candolan is Jesse Brown. Theme music is by SoCalled. This episode is brought to you by supporters Robin Boxwell, Miles Savoy, and Benjamin Scheinwall.

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