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Anyways, here's the show. Hey, it's Sam Connard. It's Tuesday, and today we're talking politics. A week after the election, Pierre's packing up and sh- to rural Alberta to try and win a by-election after losing his Carlton riding. How the fuck did he lose his seat? We spoke to the man who beat him. Here, Polly, I've opened the door. for my taking the writing for granted. On top of that, we got a bit of a deep dive into some surprising election results. That's this episode after the break.
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Down with Webster's superfan Mark Carney is finally unpacking his boxes after last week's win. But there are a few other subplots that you may have missed. J.D. Vance's best bud, Jameel Javani. Big dog, Doug Ford. This guy's a political genius because he beat Bonnie Crombie and Stephen Del Duca. NDP leader, Jagmeet Singh, and Green Party leader, Jonathan Pedno, stepped down. All the while, Elizabeth May is looking like Joni Mitchell covering Louis Armstrong to her supporters. Life goes...
On the sunny side of the street. But the biggest, and I mean biggest, story of the night was pierre polyef losing his own riding of carlton to hometown boy Bruce Fangioi. And Global News is projecting that conservative leader Pierre Polyev will lose his longtime rural Ottawa seat to liberal Bruce Fangioi. Polly, I've had represented the Carlton riding since 2004. Now, Polly, I've had this writing on lock for two whole decades.
This was a writing he was not supposed to lose. And in the biggest upset in recent political history, a recent retiree, Bruce VanJoy, said, I'll give it a shot. and dethroned the conservative party leaders. And now, to keep his job, Polyev will run in a by-election a long way from home in the bustling metropolis of Battle River Crowfoot in central Alberta. How did Bruce do this? Let's get into it.
So, first of all, congrats on your win. Thank you. But now that the dust has settled a little bit, things must be getting kind of real for you. a new MP orientation. What's that like? It seems to me like it would be like the first day of school. Well, there's an onboarding process. I haven't been through it before, of course. Can't tell you exactly what it's like, but all the usual things. There's some paperwork to do, some equipment to get offices to be identified. I still have to hire staff.
I haven't been sworn in yet. That'll be coming soon. You said the dust is settled. I would still say that there's still a little bit of dust. But we're getting there. This was obviously a ton of work for you. I know you've been campaigning for two years. If you could just walk me back to two years ago, what made you want to run initially? I knew that we were facing a historic election. That I could see.
and it would be an election that would determine the direction of the country, whether we would go in a direction where we take care of one another as best we can, we grow the economy, but also care about things like the environment. we believe in science and believe in the charter of rights and freedoms or we take a more harsher
right term that Pierre Poiliev represented. And of course that was before I even knew that Donald Trump was going to be elected to a second term. When that happened, Canadians became quite a bit more focused. on just how consequential this election was, uh, was going to be. I couldn't find anyone else to do it, so, uh... So I ultimately decided, well, if someone has to do it, it may as well be me. I mean, you're retired, is that correct? Or you were retired? I was retired. Yeah, nice.
I was at your rally a week before the election. I was at your office. I did see that Catherine McKenna and Steve McKinnon were there. It seemed like the Liberal Party was throwing a lot of resources at your riding, and I remember thinking when I was there, oh my god, this This actually has some momentum. This guy could actually win. Your party seemed convinced that you can win, but when did you know?
that it was a serious possibility? Because I can imagine two years ago, it was still a long shot in your own head. I believed we could win from the beginning. I wouldn't take on a futile exercise. I know a lot of people in Carleton and here. does not represent people in Carleton that I know. That was the experience that I was having, knocking on over 15,000 doors. Wow. There were headwinds that I was, uh...
was facing through 2024. I nonetheless felt that first of all this needed to be done and if I did everything I could and was unsuccessful I could have lived with that but I had to show up. And I knew that if I did, others would join me. And that's what happened. If you could just sum up for me in your own words. how you did it. Well, I didn't put Pierre Poilier on a pedestal. A lot of people on social media were trying to say that this is impossible.
Losing a landslide, sacrificial lamb, all these things. But I knew that going into the election, Chair Paulyev had the same number of votes as I did. and we were tied at zero. and he wasn't offering a a positive vision for Canada. We're very proud of being Canadians here in Carleton. We're right part of the national capital region. You know, once people started to believe that this was possible...
It grew, and it grew, and it grew. That plus hundreds upon hundreds of volunteers who were pouring their heart and soul into this endeavor. And I've heard two sort of narratives emerge. It's one that you obviously worked very, very hard and you had a message that was appealing to people. But there's also that Polyev didn't give the writing enough attention. Which narrative is more true? Well, both are true. Here, Polly, I've opened the door.
for my victory by taking the writing for granted. Nobody ever likes to be taken for granted. His policies were too extreme for a lot of folk. We offered a positive alternative that was present. We were listening all over the riding and people had tired of... of the American-style negative politics that Pierre practices. Ottawa's a big civil service town. The convoy was here. For example, Polyab famously bringing...
donuts to the convoy protesters or him talking about slashing the public service. How much did those two topics actually come up when you were talking to your new constituents? Very much so. Keep in mind that Carleton is fully within the city of Ottawa. We did not forget. How he encouraged and supported the occupation of Ottawa, and not just Ottawa, but blockades at border crossings across the country.
It was a tremendous disruption to our community, but also to the local economy and the Canadian economy. We didn't forget that with respect to public servants. It's perfectly reasonable that they felt threatened by his policies. People can see what Donald Trump is doing to the public service in the United States. Pierre has got from the same cloth ideologically. Did you ever want to quit realistically? Did you ever wake up and you're like, I'm too tired to knock on doors today?
Well, when that occasionally happened, I just took a break. That lasted a day. For me, it was a mission. I couldn't watch Something happened to my country when I believed that I could do something about it. That's a powerful motivator. My priority first and foremost is to Carlton. It's been a long time since they've had an MP that was present and actively listening to their concerns and working on their behalf. I think Carleton deserves my full attention, and that's what they're going to get.
Speaking of absent MPs, what do you make of Polyev's decision to run in Alberta? Alberta's a long way from Carleton. Carleton spoke loud and clear for someone who who likes to brand himself as very careful with the public purse. He certainly doesn't avoid expenditures on himself. So we've just had an election in the riding that he wants to represent, and now we're going to have to do another one that costs money. I hope that Mr. Poiliev will show some grace.
and be more of a cooperative figure in the House of Commons if and when he returns. Have you spoken to him since? that your win? No, I haven't. No. And if you had any advice for him as a winning candidate, what would you say? I don't think that he would be interested in any advice I would have to offer. I'm not sure I would...
would waste either of our time. Well, Mr. Fanjoy, I really appreciate this. Good luck in the next four years. Okay, thank you very much, Sam. Thank you. After the break, we will get down and dirty with the data to see how Fanjoy and... Girls did it. This episode is brought to you by Article. The Canada Land politics team was in the studio until like 3 a.m. for the election the other night. And look, that...
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Fizz was built to fix what other plans weren't getting right. Flexibility, fairness, and no hidden fees. they launch in montreal and they're available in quebec ontario bc and manitoba with fizz You build your plan your way. Add what you need, skip what you don't. No contracts, no price hikes, no surprises. And if you don't use all your data, it rolls over into the next month. It also rewards you for just... Sticking around the longer you stay the less you pay and if you need help
The Fizz community has got your back. Visit Fizz.ca to learn more about Fizz and its long list of added value features. That's Fizz.ca and activate a first plan using the referral code. to get $25 off and 10 gigabytes of free data. That's fizz.ca, referral code, C-A-N-25. Bruce Fanjoy's win was obviously a huge surprise in this election, but there were a few other surprises hidden in the results that I personally missed. So to go over some of those surprises with me.
I spoke to David Coletto, the founder and CEO of Abacus Data. He is deep in the numbers, analyzing every part of this historic election. David, how's it going? Great, Sam. Great to see you. So first off, how was the election for you? Was it tense? Every election day is incredibly stressful because it's the one time that a pollster like me Now the million dollar question. Was your polling correct?
For the most part, it was. We had the Conservatives behind the Liberals by two. Our regional numbers were really good. We were showing a tighter race in Ontario than a lot of the other pollsters that materialized. They only won by about four points.
Atlantic Canada, we were looking good. So yeah, I'm happy. I think we always have to keep in mind that these are tools that are not perfect. There's a margin of error for a reason. They are estimates. We were always showing this to be a much closer race. than some of the others. The largest liberal lead we had was days after, quote, liberation day in the United States, where we saw the liberals grow to six points.
But when the campaign started and all the other pollsters were showing a five, six, seven point liberal lead, we still had this race tied. And again, we're never going to know, were the liberals really 10 points ahead or were they tied? But we know where it ended, and it ended still as a pretty close race. I have no doubt we will look back at the 2025 federal election.
and talk about it for generations to come as one of those elections that was about something and likely will have a big influence and consequence on the direction of the country after. So we spoke a bit about what you did right, but what didn't you get right? We were off a little on the New Democrats. We were a little more bullish on the NDP. We had them at 10. They ended up just over 6%.
Many of the pollsters, in fact, had them higher than they ended up being. So that was something that is a little bit of a head-scratcher for me. I'm asking myself and my team, like, what was the cause of that? David, something that's really interesting to me is this phenomenon of the orange blue voter. Who are these people that are switching from NDP to conservative?
Great question. First of all, people who observe a lot of politics or even notionally, they think that people live on a linear plane, that they go from like NDP to liberal to conservative, that there's this rational kind of left to right. Most people aren't like that. And so that New Democrat conservative switcher typically lives in provinces where the NDP has been stronger. So think of the prairies.
I think of British Columbia, I think of Northern Ontario, Southwestern Ontario. They're typically working, they're unionized often, and they don't like the Liberals. And they all agree on it because the liberals sometimes feel too corporate, a little bit too... I'm going to say woke sometimes. And so these are very much economic voters, right? Primarily male. A lot of them vote conservative, but they believe in the power of a union.
And so as the Labour Party, the NDP has historically had a connection with that universe. But these folks are also culturally conservative. They would also find it hard to connect with the more social identity politics side of the NDP, right? They're talking about gender equity and trans rights. Those are things that they...
have a harder time being comfortable with. So that's that orange-blue switcher. And I think Pierre Pauly did very well with them in this election. Just under 69% of Canadians voted. Were you expecting that? My estimate was 70, so it was pretty close. Pretty close. It's a hard thing to measure with a survey because oftentimes people don't want to admit. They're not going to vote. We asked a question on our survey. We asked people on a scale of 0 to 10, how likely are you to vote?
And what I've learned over doing many elections is that people who say 10 are actually going to be the people who vote. And if you say anything less than 10, you're probably not voting. And that's what I tried to do with my estimate on turnout. Do you have any data yet on who showed up to the polls versus who didn't? Elections Canada typically puts out an estimated turnout by age and gender.
often a few months after the election. And that's a pretty, that's as definitive a sense of that that we'll likely get. I can hypothesize. So what we knew from our survey is that if you were over the age of 60, for example, 85% of people said they were going to likely vote or already did at the time that election day came on Monday. If you were under the age of 30, that dropped to just over 45%.
So that's a huge differentiator. And generation is often, or age is one of the biggest factors that is predicting your likelihood to come out and vote. And I think it was a factor here. I think Trump was a big factor in that. Older folks. My parents were enraged by Trump. And if you were under the age of 40, really, you don't read or consume or watch as much traditional news. So I think age was a big factor.
If you could break down for me and you're polling some demographic trends, maybe how men versus how women voted, and maybe some generational differences in the party vote. There was a consistent and persistent gender gap in this election. So men were more likely to vote conservative, women more likely to vote liberal. Age was a factor, in some ways a large factor. Throughout, we were seeing the conservatives doing better among young Canadians. And I use young as like under 40ish. But the most...
Interesting story of this election I think was what baby boomers did and particularly baby boomer men. So if you take gender and you intersect it with age, that's where the story really starts to emerge. So if you're over 60, male or female, you are voting liberal, and you are much less likely to vote conservative than you did.
in the previous federal election. Hence why you saw that ad of the two white golfers talking about the election and the very end of the campaign. You know what Mark Carney says. Come on, do you really think that a fourth liberal term is going to change anything?
you know i've been thinking the same thing are we really going to give these clowns a fourth term i'm voting it's it looked like a viagra commercial yeah and so you couldn't imagine a more transparent ad telling us who is the target audience for that ad yeah it was exactly those two men Now, on the other side of the age spectrum, what we did see was a very large divergence between what young men thought about politics in Canada and said they were going to do.
and what young women were doing. And there was some interesting reporting by a number of organizations on this throughout the campaign. Young men really moved towards the conservatives. really liked Pierre Polyev and young women didn't and didn't vote Conservative at the same rate. It would be too simplistic to say young Canadians embrace the Conservatives, but Because there was a more nuance to it. I saw on the Abacus website that they had a student vote survey where they go into schools and...
talk to students about how they would vote and they do sort of a fake election. What did you learn from that study? Student Vote is this great program that's run every year where students in elementary and secondary school vote in mock elections at the same time that adults have the chance to vote. And for the first time in the close to 20 years that student voters existed,
The party that won the real election did not win the student election. In fact, the conservatives won among youth the highest vote share they ever had. And so that... That generational story I think is a really important one because we saw evidence throughout this campaign that young people were not thinking about the same issues, looking at their political choices in the same way as older ones. That's really interesting. So what does the student vote?
tell you about the future of conservatism in Canada. I think there's some narrative after this election about the durability of the conservative coalition in the future. I think it does pre-tell, doesn't guarantee or predict, but it pre-tells potentially. an upside for conservatives long term and one that liberals should be worried about that their voters are actually much older than they were when Justin Trudeau won in 2015.
the conservative decade ahead is what I keep hearing. Let me just say one thing on that, Sam. Yeah. When Barack Obama won in 2008, they said it would be a Democratic majority for basically the next 20 years because of the demographics that voted for Obama in that election and we know Only eight years later. what happened in the U.S. Predicting the future is hard. I'd like to take a quick tour through the regional election results. Is there anything that stuck out particularly to you?
this election that you weren't expecting. I'm thinking, for example, in Atlantic Canada, it looked like Sean Fraser was going to lose his seat for a little while there. Sean Fraser's... Right, he was the incumbent. Right now, the conservative Bryce Jenkins in the lead. And I will tell you, conservatives I've spoken to have said Bryce Jenkins really hustling. And it was really surprising to me.
So that's just one example, but are there certain parts of the country that surprised you? Ontario was interesting to me, and it wasn't just the GTA. People talk about the greater Toronto, it's one big group of six million people, but...
If you know the area and you even drive a few 10 kilometers one way or the other, you could be in a very different place with people from different backgrounds and experiences making up a vast majority of the people who live there. And I think that expressed itself this time. I think we saw areas with higher concentrations of South Asian or Chinese communities voting more conservative that was surprising to me to see the conservative yeah
take a little bit of a hold there. Or where I have a lot of families having Italian heritage like Vaughn Woodbridge overwhelmingly voted conservative this time. That was an interesting story. The other thing that to me is indicative of a slight realignment that we've seen is were ridings like Windsor, Ontario, where a lot of manufacturing happens, particularly auto manufacturing, for the first time, I think, in history, voted in a Conservative Member of Parliament in both Windsor ridings.
Part of it was due to the collapse of the New Democrats, but it was also due to, I think, folks who are in the trades or in manufacturing, like boots, not suits, as Polyev tried to say. That worked. That really worked. And then lastly, I'll just talk briefly. I mean, BC is an enigma because it's really like three provinces in one. The Liberals lost seats in Ontario, but they gained seats in British Columbia.
And again, that age factor, I think, was really at play. BC typically has a slightly older population because people often retire there. The weather's better. And a city like Victoria or Kelowna are particular destinations for retirees. Victoria safely went liberal, which had been an NDP seat for a very long time. Victoria, the capital city, going to the Liberals for the first time since 2008. And Kelowna barely went liberal.
interesting dynamics across the country. Last thing I'll say is the supposed breakout of liberals in the prairies. particularly in Saskatchewan and Alberta, did not materialize. The Liberals lost their one seat in Calgary, they gained one more, and so they're left with very little representation in Saskatchewan and Alberta. I don't want to get too deep in the weeds here, but there's a very unique political culture in Alberta and very unique identity that I think drives political behavior there.
That's actually a good transition into my next question. You wrote that the Liberal vote was more cost-effective, especially in Ontario, Quebec, and in Atlantic Canada. What does that mean for a vote to be more cost effective? Let me put it this way. There are many seats in this country where the conservative candidate was getting 60, 70, 80% of the vote.
There were far fewer of them that the Liberals were. And so the way to think about it, and it's not to say there's any truly wasted votes, but from a political strategy perspective, winning 80% of the vote in Alberta... gets you still one seat. But if you're able to win 45% of the vote in most of the ridings in the Greater Toronto Area, that's going to get you a lot more seats. And so the Liberal vote is more...
distributed evenly across the country and particularly in high population areas. So think Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal, and they did in the last previous two elections where they actually got fewer votes than the Conservatives but won substantially more seats because their voters were more distributed, and the conservative vote was way more concentrated in rural, western parts of the country. Yeah, I was actually just in Alberta recently, and it did not come as a surprise to me.
So you talked about the popular vote a little bit. Obviously getting rid of first-past-the-post system is something that's been on the table for a long time. How would this election have looked if it were done by proportional representation? So let me say something that's going to drive... proportional representation advocates not. This was a very proportional outcome.
But it was also a very binary election. So the conservatives got 41% of the vote and they're going to get about 41% of the seats. But it depends how you would design a system that if you actually went and... did regional or provincial-level proportional breakouts. then you should have more Albertan Liberal MPs than you actually have, right? And you should have more Conservative MPs in Quebec than you have. So... In a weird way, the nature of this election
didn't allow our electoral system to distort the results as much as it usually does. What was your biggest surprise this election? The biggest surprise for me is that the liberals won a fourth term because i was saying to absolutely everyone in december just four months ago that poliev's inevitable and unless something fundamentally changes he will win something fundamentally changed thank you very much david i appreciate it my pleasure thanks for having me
Since when did pride in your country become prejudice? Our thoughts exactly. The Telegraph. We speak your mind. And then they're super digging his foot! And then they're Baker's Superfoods! with selected natural ingredients. Tasty chicken! There is so much political news to keep track of. It's making my head spin. But Noor and I are switching seats today and she's going to fill us in on a You need to know. Noor, what have you got for me? I want you to take a second.
Do you remember the last time Parliament was in session? Okay, let me take a second. One. October? No. October? September. It was September. January 6th. was the day that Justin Trudeau prorogued Parliament. The last time we actually had a functioning, non-paralyzed government. was September of last. year. I thought it was September, but didn't they, they briefly met in November, no, to pass that GST relief?
Yeah, you're right. Well, Mark Carney is soon going to change that. We're going to see our politicians rabble-rousing in the House of Commons very soon. He's expected to recall Parliament on May 26th. Mark your calendars, people. But he's also said that the new Liberal cabinet is going to be sworn in on the week of May. 12th a senior liberal official says it's gonna be a fresh crew That's gonna stand out from the JT era cabinet. So there's a lot on the docket here in May
Right. Mark Carney your calendars, everybody. Yes, that's a good one. Nora, what's first on the to-do list? The throne speech. Oh. It's actually not really that fancy of an event, but this time... it kind of is so the throne speech Essentially, like every new session of Parliament is opened by this
throne speech. It's usually delivered by the governor general and it outlines the government's legislative agenda and priorities. It kind of just sets the stage of what's to come. But this year, King Charles will be giving the speech instead of the governor general. King Charles will be delivering the throne speech. And now we must continue with this segment fully in a British accent. I can't. This is super interesting. The last
Last time a throne speech was given by a monarch was in 1977 by Queen Elizabeth II. I remember her. Remember her? Yeah, it happened during Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau's era. She gave this throne speech at a time where
There was a lot of MPs that supported the elimination of the monarchy and there was this huge separatist sentiment rising in Quebec. So, I think it's safe to assume that the timing of this speech by King Charles under mark carney is very intentional with what's going on you know down south it's funny to think of king charles
Speaking directly to rural Albertans. I don't know how that will... I don't know how that will land. Cool. Well, I will mark Carney my calendar. What's next after that? Well... The infamous budget will drop. A senior liberal official said that we should expect a middle class tax cut. the end of intra-provincial trade barriers, and the official death of the carbon tax. and the resurrection of Danielle Smith and Mark Carney's relationship.
Who put that on? Like, I did not have that on my agenda. Not on your bingo card? Nope. Nope, never. Well, color me excited, Noor. That is a hefty agenda. Well, it is not all, Sam. Have you forgotten about President Donald Trump? Oh man, the spray tan boogeyman. Dude, you're on a roll today. I'm on a heater, yeah. You're on a roll today.
I think we can have a great relationship. He called me up yesterday and said let's make a deal. He was running for office. They both hated Trump. And it was the one that hated Trump, I think the least of that one. That clip you just heard is Trump's reaction to the election of Mark Carney.
2D chess, 3D chess, or 5D chess, I literally can't tell at this point. Tic-tac-toe over here. Mark Carney touched down in the US of A yesterday on Monday. He's gonna be meeting with Donald Trump later today, Tuesday. this conversation is a big one it's gonna set the tone for our relationship for the next four years it's a huge huge
moment, especially for Carney. You know, he essentially ran an anti-Trump campaign, a Canada v USA campaign, and he positioned himself as the best candidate to deal with the president. I don't know if you heard his first press conference after the election. Oh, I heard. Here's some of that conference. For the first meeting, as I mentioned in my remarks, and
The President and I discussed when we had our constructive call. There are two sets of issues. There are the immediate tariffs, both sectoral and so-called reciprocal and fentanyl tariffs and then there is the broader relationship so addressing both sets of issues We'll see how that progress goes. It's important to get engaged immediately, which has always been my intention, has always been his intention.
And I'm pleased to have the opportunity for quite a comprehensive set of meetings. I heard they're also going to be picking the next Pope. at that meeting. Did you hear that? I think Donald Trump's picked himself. I volunteer as tribute, he said. Don't you worry, Vatican people. I'm here.
Well, I guess we'll just have to see how this all pans out. I will be watching that very closely. Me too. It's been an interesting few days of their relationship post-election. I get the sense that Donald Trump respects and maybe likes. Carney, but he still hasn't dropped the whole 51st state talk. He called him a nice gentleman, right? Yeah, a nice gentleman. Nora, you're a nice gentleman. No, you. Norm, what's going on with the NDP?
What isn't going on with the NTP? I feel like not a lot these days. They are struggling. Reminder, this was last week's bombshell. Tonight I've informed a party leader that I'll be stepping down as party leader as soon as an interim leader can be appointed. fallen soldier that took one for the team. Or so he says. Jagmeet Singh says he's staying on as NDP leader until they manage to appoint an interim leader.
Just to recap, they're down to seven seats in the House of Commons, which means that they've officially lost party status. You need 12 seats for that. Lucky number seven. Unlucky this time around because without party status they lose funding for staff and offices. They barely get a chance to speak during question period.
They literally might as well be sitting at the kids' table during committee meetings. When was the last time this happened? In 1993. The NDP managed to only scrape together nine seats. but then managed to climb back up to 21 in the 1997 election. So what you're saying is that it's not the nail in the coffin for the NDP? Not necessarily, but it definitely may.
their life much more difficult. You smell that, Noor? No, what do you smell? It's the smell of a new political era. I love it. Thank you, Noor. Thank you. this week in Canada see you next tuesday let us know what you're pissed off about watching closely and what you want to hear about on this show you can email me directly at sam at canadaland.com and i do read
Each and every thing you send me. This episode was written, produced, and fact-checked by Aviva Lessard, Norazvia, and me. Mixing and Mastering is by the very talented Caleb Thompson. Max Collins is our director of audio. Jesse Brown, the boss, is Canadaland's editor and publisher. Our theme music is by Nathan Burley. This episode is brought to you by Canadaland supporters Nicole Gwynn. Adam Iredale Gray and Karen Olson. Thanks guys If you value this podcast like they do, subscribe.
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