¶ Intro / Opening
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¶ Leavitt's Delusional Ceasefire Narrative
Hello everyone, I'm JVL here with my bulwark colleague Andrew Eger, and we just watched Caroline Leave It. Press conference. I feel like we're doing a reaction show to an end of the season episode of everybody's favorite series, the hit series, very strong ratings, Iran War. And uh Andrew, I guess we'll start with this. Is there a ceasefire?
Uh well I guess it depends on what you mean by the by a ceasefire. If your definition of ceasefire would be that people have ceased firing, uh it seems that the answer is no. We have tons of reports of things going everywhere this morning. Uh but if you were expecting Carolyn Levitt to really like weigh in on that uh uh in this conference, you would have turned out to be disappointed.
Okay. Uh Out of curiosity, because I I did miss the first minute and a half of this of this press conference, did she swerve and say that All things considered. Starting out with our goals of unconditional surrender and then regime change that maybe we didn't get everything we wanted to f was there any admission of that from her at the in the beginning part of the press conference?
No, actually if you missed the first minute and a half of uh of the press conference, you missed a sort of inexplicable thing that she wedged in right at the beginning uh about this sort of like anti-AI cyberbullying porn bill that apparently Melania Trump has been uh involved with. Um so that that that seemed that seemed like important news uh to to get to right off the top. But no, um if you uh the the the from the very first things that Carolyn had to say about
uh the state of the ceasefire to the end. Uh she was remarkable in in sort of like the the over the top mission accomplished. We've done what we came here to do. I mean it really sounded like the kind of remark that you would give, you know, the day after the actual signing of a of a conflict ending treaty, far more so than than just from a from a we we
we got what we set out to do, which was to suspend our own deadline and agree to have talks uh along lines that are wildly, you know, dissimilar in terms of our asks versus their asks, while the firing continue continues to happen.
among all parties other than the United States, apparently. I mean it was just a very weird split screen between all the headlines we've had out of Iran and out of the Strait of Hormuz and the the broader region today and the tone that that uh the press secretary took in in this conference today.
So it does seem to me that the administration seems desperate for this ceasefire. Like this I mean the they seem to want to hold on to this thing, to cherish it, one might even say. To to take it, to cherish it, to just grab it by the the fire or the cease, who can say which. And uh
That's again not something you do when you're in the strong dominant winning position, right? That the if you're in that position, then you would be willing to like, well, whatever, we gotta go back, we gotta go back. Um before we dig into the specific parts of the press conference. Can I just put a quarter in the machine and let you let you just cook on your overall thoughts before we go into the specifics?
Oh, I don't know. I mean the I g I guess my baseline thing is sort is sort of along the lines of of the thing I just said, which is that I just cannot believe how much she is spiking the football here. I can I could not believe that at a t at a moment of such sort of like maximum
uncertainty about the status of this ceasefire that they just signed, you know, like twelve hours ago, or they just agreed to put into effect. Obviously there wasn't any even any real signing that happened. But they basically all just just said, you know, we're gonna lay down our guns and stop shooting. Um and then as
As more and more reports continue to trickle out, which you also saw, by the way, in this very press conference, you know, there'd be some breaking news of some new set of explosions in Iran. Uh and and you know, someone would ask Carolyn about it and she'd be like, Look, I'm up here at the podium. I'm talking to you people. I'm not you you've probably heard more about that than me. I'm gonna have to go talk to the National Security Council about that kind of stuff.
And yet, like despite all of that, it was it was not like this is a breather and you know we're we're gonna be right back there if Iran so much as as you know looks at us wrong, which is what Iran is saying, by the way. The way they're messaging this thing is, you know, the second anybody else uh uh you know looks at us crosswise or violates this ceasefire, we're slamming all these controls back on the straight.
Um but but that that was very much not the impression that that Carolyn Levitt gave. The impression she gave was Uh Donald Trump has has landed the plane for us. Uh aren't uh the American people should be very happy with all of these uh outcomes we have already achieved. And then on the specific question of the strait, there was like a a ludicrous amount of of just sort of like cognitive dissonance.
Uh a lot of it stemming from some stuff Donald Trump himself said this morning that seemed to be completely at odds with you know,'cause we we can get into that later, but that was
We'll get into that in a minute. Yeah. Uh before we do though, I I mean I will just uh underscore for for listeners what you're talking about. Here is at one point the question was asked, who is bombing Iran right now? To which Carolyn Leavitt replied, I'll have to go back and check with the national security team. I mean my understanding was that there are only two belligerents in this on our side, America and Israel. And so it's either us or it's the Israelis.
¶ The Contested Strait of Hormuz
Who could say? Uh all right, so I want to roll the tape of the I mean fundamentally this entire ceasefire is really about the Strait of Hormoes, um and the single most basic question. Is the Strait of Hormuz open or closed right now? Carolyn leave it?
State media is saying that Iran has now closed off the straight of four moves today in response to Israeli attacks on Lebanon. What's the right White House response to that? And you just listed many military successes, I understand that, but strategically How is the administration arguing that Iran does not have more economic leverage?
Sure. Well with respect to the first reporting out of Iranian state media, the president was made aware of those reports. uh before I came to the podium. Um that is completely unacceptable. And again, this is a case of what they're saying publicly is different privately. We have seen an uptick of traffic in the strait today and I will reiterate the president's expectation and demand
that the Strait of Hermouse is reopened uh immediately, quickly, and safely. Um that is his expectation and it has been relayed to him privately that that is what's taking place and these reports uh publicly are false.
So Matt, m we we'll get to we're gonna unpack that in a minute. Matt, do you have the other one where she's asked, like, is it open?
Uh posted the statement from the Iranian government that passage in the strait will be coordinated with Iran's armed forces. As of today, who controls the state of Strait of Formuli?
Thank you.
Uh again, this these statements were put out twelve hours ago. Uh we expect that the strait will be opened immediately. As I've said earlier, we have seen an uptick. in traffic in the street and it's something that we are monitoring minute by minute, hour by hour as the days go on.
And who controls the straight right?
Uh one on
Ha ha
Well Lorron controls the straight, right? I mean sorry, go ahead.
So uh so her position seems to be Iran is saying two different things, one privately to domestic audiences and one publicly to to I mean maybe not publicly, but maybe to the United States government. That is not crazy. That is actually an old trick of Iran. They would often do this during like nuclear negotiations with uh with
The Bushes with the Clintons, with uh President Obama, with President Biden. This is like a famous thing they do. You know, you say one thing at the UN and another thing when you're, you know, out in the provinces in Tehran. Um This is a qu factual question about is the strait open or closed? And her position seems to be, well, they may be saying internally that it's closed, but they tell us it's open.
Yeah, it's it's an interesting inversion of the of the of the internally publicly thing,'cause right,'cause the the publicly thing is usually about what they're disseminating to media, like their state media, and then and then privately they're telling us, they're telling the negotiators about what's really happening.
Whereas every piece of information that we are getting about this is that it's the opposite. We don't know what exactly they have told uh our negotiators or President Trump or whoever, but apparently whatever they've said, he's comfortable with it. So that's the private chance. But uh the problem is that the public channel is not just them like talking on state media to like the Iranian public. The public channel is them communicating directly to the shit.
that are currently stuck in the Strait of Hormuz saying you still need to abide by the pre existing arrangement where you need to get the direct approval of the uh Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, or we may blow up your boat. I mean like that. And that has not changed at all. Th those those are not reports that are coming out of Iranian media. Those are reports that are coming out of like
Shipping publications, maritime publications are actually talking to the boats that are stuck there, that really want to leave. You know, like they are they've been they've been stuck there way too long. It's it's like Humanitarian, it's not just an economic thing. It's like a humanitarian thing for the merchant mariners who are on these ships and everything. They're dying to get out of the strait because they can't dock. I mean, there's all these problems. But
But they have not yet seen. Like that's the public. The public is not just like messaging. The public is not the public side of this is not just spin. The public side of this is that the president has declared the straits open, come on through. But Iran Iran is communicating to these to these ships. Well, not so fast. And right now they're listening not to Trump. They're not saying, Well, Donald Trump's uh here's my here's my hall pass. Donald Trump said I could come through here.
They're listening to the group that has the ability to send drones to hit their vessels. And that's the problem that has been around for weeks and that still persists, apparently, despite the ceasefire today.
¶ Trump's Controversial Strait Toll Plan
So before we wrap with the the straight, the final piece of this is the question of tolls. So uh another thing that uh we surrendered away seems to be uh the ability to impose tolls. Um seeing lots of different things being proposed. Uh I am interested in why it took so long for Donald Trump to decide, hey, wait a minute, these tolls are an okay idea so long as I get my beak wet too.
Because we did get a little bit from him, I don't know if it was last night or this morning. Uh you wrote about this, Andrew, in which he suggested actually with regard to these tolls, um, you know, this is something we're looking into very strongly.
Yeah, this was this was one of these weird little like mini phoners he's been doing of he's been doing with like every uh reporter who has his phone number under the sun. Not me, I don't have it. If any of you in the comment section happen to have the president's phone number and want to send it my way, I'd really appreciate it.
Uh but it was ABC's Jonathan Carrell um who who called him and basically was like, So look, what is the deal with this with this tolling system? And it has been the position of the US government, of the Trump White House. uh that these tolls are unacceptable and that that Iran needs to return the straight of form moves to the pre-existing status quo.
But interestingly, that was not what the president himself expressed this morning. He said, Well, you know, actually what we're looking into is sort of like a joint US Iran tolling situation. where where, you know, we we we get a little bit of that bribe money too for all of the oil tankers that are moving through this international waterway.
under threat of terrorist attack by Iran. I mean, it was just like one of one of these things that you like couldn't even imagine ever being said, even after yesterday. It was sort of like, he said what exactly? And then at the at the briefing today, you know, Levitt
was just sort of like squirming around this question'cause she couldn't really there's nothing she can really say about it because it still remains, I guess, the US negotiating position at these talks that are happening that Iran has to open the straight and they haven't yet and and they are really under no we we we we obviously lack the pressure to make them which is
the whole problem, I mean, bombing them more and more and more and more and more was not enough to make them. Um we would have to send in ground troops and the president considers that un unacceptable. So that's that's kind of a bind that we're in. But But you know, at the at the briefing today, she basically said, Well, you know, that's just kind of an idea the president has floated, but it remains the position of the government.
uh that that that we need to have this a a toll free zone sort of back to back to the way it was. That was just one more insane swerve uh in all of this, you know, straight from the the the cuckoo mind of the president.
Andrew, no ideas in a brainstorm. We're not gonna judge. Uh you know, we're all we're I I would just say For people who maybe don't follow maritime law, the the Strait of Hormuz is governed by international law to which we are simply one signatory. It is insane that the United States thinks that they can establish yes, Iran gets to toll people. Unilaterally?
This is th this is the kind of thing that requires a lot of people to buy into. Uh it's it's a little nuts. Um we are going to talk about uh
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¶ Israel's Separate War in Lebanon
And for inventing a new tongue twister to embarrass me on YouTube. I I really appreciate that. Um So we had something interesting about uh Lebanon because one of the other fronts of the war is Israel's incursion into Lebanon. Uh we had a bunch of explosions in Beirut today. Uh this is reporting Israel Israeli military said they were carrying out the largest strike against Hezbollah terrorists since the beginning of Operation Roaring Lion.
Uh Lebanon says at least 120 pe 112 people killed, hundreds of others wounded. And here I'm just gonna I'm just gonna read this straight account from CBS News. Iran is accusing Israel of violating the conditional ceasefire announced by President Trump. By continuing its war with Hezbollah in Lebanon. But Israel has said the agreement does not extend to its war with the Iran-back Hezbollah, although mediator Pakistan said it does. I mean it all seems perfectly clear to me.
Uh yeah, and this was something this was another thing that uh that Levitt got into today at the briefing where she was basically like You know, we we we're encouraging them to sort of wrap wrap up that conflict for the ceasefire. We would we would like for that to stop, but also we are we are we too are of the opinion uh that that our our ceasefire does not extend to the conflict in Lebanon.
But the problem is that Iran thinks it does, right? And I mean this this was the basis under which Iran announced this morning that it was recla reclosing the strait. So like again, I i it it's L let me let me give like one countervailing possibility here,'cause this is a thing that that Levitt floated at the briefing, and it could it it could end up being the case. Uh or at least there's there's one way of looking at at what's going on in the street right now, um that that we
One of the consequences of all of the bombing we've done of Iran is that we've taken out a lot of their ability to sort of communicate centrally, especially even like within the the military infrastructure. That that they have this sort of like mosaic structure where where, you know, different little
regional guard commanders are empowered to sort of like take more independent action uh than you'd necessarily expect from a state military. And so it is possible that uh some of this stuff, some of these announcements, some of these guys like radioing boats and saying better not come, or these some of these
uh strikes that are still taking place are a result of the ceasefire sort of slowly trickling down and like these guys literally just not yet having gotten the news that they're supposed to put down their guns and stuff. So so it it it's not completely outside of the question. This will look a little different.
uh uh tomorrow. But that said, I mean, th this this whole Lebanon situation does seem to have really imperiled what what fragile ceasefire, you know, even at the central level did exist because
You know, if if if Iran is saying, Well look, this can't keep going on, uh if if if we're gonna keep abiding by this, and also meanwhile, they're not keeping abiding by this, I mean these things take on a logic of their own, right? And I guess the one other thing about it that we haven't really talked about at all is
is Israel's role in all of this, because right at the beginning of this war, there was a lot of reporting that basically said, uh, Donald Trump, it's not like like he got dragged into it kicking and screaming. He wanted to he wanted to strike Iran. He kinda always has.
But it was absolutely predicated by um you know Bibi Netanyahu coming to the White House and pitching him on this conflict and saying, hey, let's do it. This is the moment. Let's go. And Trump agreeing to that. And now here we are on the far end of it. Where it's good, I guess, that Trump sort of backed off of his uh uh pledges of humanitarian catastrophe in order to get some sort of faith fa
face saving fake ceasefire here. And so I guess even if the ceasefire falls apart, at least we got over that hump. But but once again, it is, you know, Israel and Israel's strikes that are that are continuing to kind of like drag the US in places that the US by its own account doesn't want to be dragged. So like it's not this is not some like conspiracy theory about about you know like b Bibi Netanyahu dog walking Donald Trump.
It's the account of the White House about all of this stuff. I mean like they are basically saying, well, yeah, I mean we we we sure wish they'd they would abide by this ceasefire out there too, but it doesn't it doesn't really qualify is is the Levitt's Levitz position.
Does it appear to you that Israel is in favor of a ceasefire?
Israel so the the weird thing about Israel is that they are domestically the situation is one hundred percent the reverse of what it is in America. I mean like Netanyahu fears political pain, political reply reprisals if he were to go along with this ceasefire. They do not want to see This ceasefire under these terms. Because unlike us, I mean, like, like all all of these, you know, the the the grab bag of priorities.
That Iran wants to see happen in this ceasefire, which Trump apparently is is at least suggesting that he could be amenable to. Like those are bad things from the point of view of US policy, but they're horrible things from the point of view of the lived experience of like anybody in Israel, right? So they're like, absolutely not, we're not going along. with this stuff. Um That's not to say that Trump couldn't if he if he really uh put his mind to it, sort of
push B B into it, right? I mean, like, Trump has leverage in this situation, not only over Iran, but also over our our our allies, in theory, it seems like that, you know, we're a lot bigger than they are. We should be able to set some of these terms. We should not necessarily uh just be okay with a situation where where Israel's unilateral action complicates and and even fractures this ceasefire that apparently is so good. But but the other side of it is
It doesn't seem like this ceasefire really exists anyway. So I don't I I I I don't know exactly the right way to spin all of that. But it's it's just it just really underscores just how fragile and hanging by a thread all of this is, uh just twelve hours. 20 hours.
I w I will say it has appeared to me from basically the start that Israel's goal was to turn Iran into a failed state. They did not particularly care about having a like liberal regime or Iranian democracy or anything like that. Uh, they wanted it to look like Gaza and um to be basically ungovernable. Bob Kagan talked about this when he was uh with Bill Crystal, I think it was it with Bill, maybe it was Tim a couple of weeks ago.
So this the terms of this ceasefire, if they are what they appear to have been, where is Iran winds up controlling the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions go away, uh nuclear progress At least isn't outlawed, you know, according to the terms of of our deal. Iran gets pushed closer with China. Uh the Europeans and the Saudis probably make their own accommodations with Iran. This is close to a worse possible scenario for Israel, I think.
Uh the problem is that it's like the best available scenario for America. Right. I mean, I wrote about this today. If you look at all once once Trump invaded or was sorry, once Trump launched the war, like the number of off ramps and what they all looked like. This is the least bad outcome for America. And so you have the two allies in the war whose whose end states are now like fully unmisaligned. And I don't know how that's gonna play out. It's gonna be very interesting. Um
¶ Trump's Bluff and Strategic Concessions
Alright, uh moving on, I we did talk a little bit about the uh threats of genocide, which I guess is art of the deal. Is that your maybe do we have the sound on that, Matt?
Yesterday, the president threatened to destroy Iran's civilization, the entire civilization, not the Iranian government. but the Iranian civilization, the Iranian people. U S has been a moral
Yeah.
For most of its history, by fighting wars against other governments, not against civilizations. How can the president claim that America can ever have the moral high ground if he's threatening to destroy civilizations and not casting wars as fights against other governments?
Andrew, I think you should take a look at the actions of this president over the course of the past six weeks and the actions of our brave men and women in our United States military. uh who have taken out uh the mil essentially taken out the military of a rogue Islamic uh regime that has chanted death to America for forty seven years, that has killed
And maimed thousands of American soldiers over the course of the last five decades. The president absolutely has the moral high ground over the Iranian terrorist regime, and for you to even suggest otherwise is frankly insulting.
Frankly. She said frankly, so that really underscores that uh how insulting it is.
I I I really like their she I mean, she made two points there, one of which is that you shouldn't pay attention to the words of the President of the United States, you should only pay attention to actions. Um, okay, sure. Uh wh why why why would we ever pay attention to any of the any of the missives that he puts up on his social media platform that like
whipsaw US policy around like the second he posts them all the time. Um and then the other thing is like I I can't believe you would insinuate that that the US is worse off than Iran or like is is morally worse than Iran.
And like I don't think that was the substance of the question. It's not it's not is the US worse than Iran? It's is the US living up to being a lot better than Iran? Like we would hope to be as sort of like the leader of the free world and not this sort of like clerical fascist state.
Uh so uh so I don't know. I mean, it was kind of notable to me that she never really defended it. I mean, like it uh she she danced around it. She was not like the president was absolutely right uh to say that. It was just sort of like, well, if you look at the actions, it seems to have had a good outcome, although it hasn't. Um and then and then uh and then just inventing sort of sort of thing.
fake things that the reporter had said to avoid commenting on the substance of the president uh threatening a genocide.
Well, she's in a box, right? Because either he absolutely meant it and was gonna do genocide. It's just that it happened to have worked out this time. Or he didn't mean it. It was all four D chess. He was never gonna do genocide. Don't worry, look the good outcome we have. But if you do that, you have to say, but of course he was never gonna do it. He was just bluffing. And she can't do that either.
Right. Yeah. That that's the the box. So once once you say you're into genociding and war crimes, it's uh it's a little tough.
And I do think I do think we have learned enough, you know, over the last twenty four hours that we can pretty confidently say it was the latter that that Trump truly was bluffing. And then when when when Iran just kind of
Called the bluff.
He was the one who freaked out. He was the one who went to Pakistan and was like, you gotta you gotta announce that there's some breakthrough in this. Um and and and you know, that that then kind of called his own bluff and and you know, p punt in his own deadline.
And uh, and I guess we're gonna see whether, I mean, like, this is the problem. Like, where does he go next? There's no there's no additional escalation rhetorically that can happen. So I guess we're all just gonna have to wait and see.
There's even a a moment in the presser where they they talk about the ten point plan,'cause this is the other the other thing. This ten point plan did not just happen yesterday, like it it happened several days ago. And in order to preserve the idea that the genocide threat worked, Leviat had to say, No, no, no, no, this is a totally different ten point plan.
They they submitted a another ten point plan that was totally unserious and we rejected that. So they had to go back and do it totally and you're like, short jan.
Yeah, there's a brand new ten point plan. It's very reasonable. We like it a lot. Anything that's in it. Yeah, we can't we can't we can't tell you anything about it. Uh Iran is reporting what what what they're saying is in it, but that's all lies. You can't believe a word of that. And it's just I mean it.
What can you say? I mean they they they have they they they push in all their chips on this bluff. Iran called the bluff and and everything that has happened since then has been just sort of like one big sort of face saving messaging. boondoggle and like, you know, Trump threatening to sue CNN for like reporting on what Iran was saying about the deal and and all this stuff. And like meanwhile, we're still in this same s insane situation where Iran still controls the strait.
And we still can't s beat that out of them just by dropping bombs on them. I d no matter how much Heg Seth wants to try. And like this is We just there's no there's no there's nothing new, nothing has happened, there has been no breakthrough, and we're still stuck here.
I disagree. Okay. There has been an actual breakthrough and I think I'm being sarcastic, but I'm not sarcastic. America has in principle agreed to grant administrative control of the strait over. We've said that it's right. I mean this is an enormous this is a sea change. This is a thing which international law has insisted for decades and decades. Like, nope, nope, this strait is an accent of geography and it is not subject to normal laws of territorial waters. This is an open waterway.
And the United States has said, eh, in principle, we'll we'll let the Iranians control it. in perpetuity, so long as they'll just open it now because gas prices are getting really high and we have an election to come, which is astonishing. Last thing, and then we'll get out of here. Um
¶ NATO Doubts and Sick of Winning
Towards the very end, uh Leavitt was asked about withdrawing from NATO. Because why not? And uh she said the president is considering it. I guess if you're riding high on this tremendous victory that you accomplished without NATO partners and you you're doing this world historical thing that nobody had ever thought possible.
Then why not double down and say again to NATO, yeah, we're considering walking out on the alliance. Um I don't know, there is there anything to say other than this is one of the most irresponsible things any presidential administration in American history has done?
Yeah, I mean the President's meeting with the Secretary General of NATO in person this afternoon and Levitt previewed that it's gonna be Somewhat astonishing. Who knows what he's gonna say? I wrote in my newsletter this morning that I kind of consider the last twenty four hours of presidential utterances to be in the running for like his his most insane single day run of all time across a couple of different fronts.
uh with the with the genocide stuff into the CNN stuff I alluded to before, into the well maybe we'll actually also be pirates on the Strait of Hormuz alongside Iran and that'll be a lot of fun. Um and and uh you never know. I mean like he he he could he could be extending his streak.
But uh I will hand it to Iran. I think they they played their hand very well over the course of the last like two and a half months. Um they did miss one real great strategic opportunity. I think a lot could have been accomplished. If they had said, Sir With tears in their eyes, these mules, these big tough mules. You may not like them, but they're very tough. Dave said, Sir.
We propose charging a mil two million dollar toll on every ship that comes to the Strait of Hormuz, with$1 million going to us and$1 million going to your Board of Peace. I think Trump would have found that absolutely irresistible. And I'm kidding, sort of. Like w after what we've just witnessed, the utter fecklessness of the last forty days. If something like that had happened, which sounds like uh something from VEEP, like dark Veep.
Feels to me like uh our president would have had to have been really strong armed out of that. Even Benjamin Netanyahu and the head of the Mossad might have had a hard time getting him out of that one. Okay. Andrew, thanks for joining me. Uh we've got so much more clarity on this tremendous victory that America has won. The victory so good that we're all praying we never have to have it again. I did think to myself today, Andrew, I don't know if you remember.
that uh early on in the Trump campaign he had a line about how, you know, we're gonna be so much winning that people are gonna come up to me and they're gonna be begging me to lose because they'll be sick and tired of all the winning.
So tired of winning. Yeah.
I guess America was so sick and tired of winning that he finally decided to give us a clear loss. Thanks, Mr. President. Everybody else, hit like, hit subscribe, follow the channel. We'll be back more. And soon, or maybe soon, with more. Who can say? We're doing it live. Good luck, America.
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