Welcome back to the Buffalo Bread Podcast. I'm Jitjit with Me As Always And Dan. And this week has been quiet in the news front. Nothing really happening. No big upheavals, that's for sure. Just kidding. No. For half of Bill's Moffitt who have been screaming that Ken Dorsey is the problem with everything and basically the Antichrist, you've got your way. He's been fired for the other half of Bill's Moffitt who thinks Josh Allen is the
problem or Sean McDermott is the problem. Those two individuals are still with the team and will be likely at least through the remainder of this season and most likely through the remainder of the next several years. So we'll get into all of it and where are your feelings? What is happening with you today? I like you had mired myself in the toxic toxicity of Bill's
mafia wanting headstroll after that Broncos game. And I think much like the Bengals game, I'm going to venture a guess that our post game recap of the Broncos game is going to be less about numbers, JJ, and more about the feels because that game left everyone with the feels to the point where folks wanted to see headstroll needed a pelt on the wall, something to indicate that this team was going to do any modicum of adjustment to change
the fortune of where this team appears to be headed, which is a missing the playoffs for the first time since 2019, 18, 19, first time since 2019 in the McDermott era. So Buffalo Bill's fans got their wish. And the discourse as a result of that has been nonsensical to the point where I don't know how to feel about the Dorsey firing. I can tell you that from as an outsider looking in, this is a move that most head coaches make to scapegoat the real
reason why a team may be losing. The answer around why the bills are five and five at this point is way more complex than even the criticisms we have levied about Dorsey play sequencing, building to to eventually exploit this team's off offensive strengths. All of those things have been contributing factors to a team holistically that has been struggling for some time on
both sides of the ball. Monday felt like a breaking point for this team. And it felt like the first time in the McDermott era, where you could get the sense JJ that his seat was getting a little bit warmer. Now, we don't know much about the baguolas as owners. They've made some questionable decisions on hires, retro iron. And then they've made some really good ones that have led us into the area that era that we are now. So it's
hard to know where this ownership group stands with the performance of this team. But the firing of Dorsey is a classic classic NFL head coach move to try to buy yourself a little bit more time deflect where the problem re problems really are in the hopes that you can patch something together and salvage a season. You now have Joe Brady in but the defense doesn't get any healthier. We don't know if Josh will stop turning the football
over. And by all accounts, it is hard to see how the firing of Ken Dorsey on a short week against a team whose defense is absolutely owned you the past three times they've seen you over the last two years, how this felt like the right time and the right move to fix, fixed what held this team. So I'm left with a lot of confusion because this has been a very well run organization, well run team for years. And it feels for the very first time JJ like things might be coming apart at the seams.
Yeah, I would agree. And I think that, you know, I think that as Bill's fans, we can look at last season. And, you know, there were so many obstacles that we talked about with injuries with, you know, the DeMar Hamlin situation with, you know, the bills, you know, being moved to different days and snow storms and apocalypse, all this stuff. And I wonder how much of last season, you know, we were like, distracted from the real problems
that ails this franchise. And I think you're right, I think that Sean McDermott, it's it seems asinine, the success that this team has had over the past five years or so to consider a coaching change. But the loud voices and builds Mafia are saying he's sort of gotten us to to the ceiling of his capacity are starting to gain some more, you know, some more tenor
in their voice. I think that that's, you know, it was one of us, one of the strong McDermott staunch defenders early this season, not just up till the Miami game, but in the kind of interceding weeks when the bills were kind of starting to struggle to say, you know, we had critical crucial all pro losses, three positions on the defense. So, you know, that's
something a number of our past rushers playing hurt through several games. So I still do stand by the fact that I think Sean McDermott is doing more with less on this defense than Leslie Frazier did with the defenses he coached in previous seasons. That being said, you know, we like to look at analytics and things like that. And analytically, this defense is flailing. I mean, they've been bottom three or four in the league in a lot of metrics.
Since that Jaguars game where we lost to Kwan Jones and Matt Mulano, you'd expect that with that level of talent kind of falling off in trade to Avis White the week before. But at the same time, I think that in certain parts, the scheme is is still to blame. He's still making some some mistakes. I think that the Broncos being able to charge it down the field and, you know, throw a short screen that went for 40 yards to get them a deal
go range is like a perfect example. That's like basically the 13 seconds all over of too soft. And then he overcorrects and goes, you know, all out blitz on two consecutive plays. The first one is to great effect. And the second one, he didn't need it on the second one. No, they knew what was happening as soon as he lined up that they're like, Oh, it's just going to rush us the same. Like all you know, Russ needs to do is just whip this thing
out there. I think that the pass interference calling Taran Johnson was just complete bullshit. Like that was another one of those situations in the NFL where referees stuck their nose in something that I think was a clean play. And I think that Taran Johnson's reputation was probably more at fault than his actual play on that particular snap. Darren Waller feels vindicated. Yeah. Out there. That's what that's what I'm saying is I think that there's certainly, you know,
the referee is its own the referee world of the NFL is his own community. And it's probably one of those, hey, you know, keep an eye on this guy because he plays like pretty touchy. But I think he got a BS flag and that end of that game, I think it's false squarely on Sean McDermott. He could have escaped Matt Smiley for having 12 men on the field during field goal block. There are some, you know, people out there who are saying it was
DeMar Hamlin and Hertz for a lot of different reasons. Some people saying it was Leonard Floyd who was supposed to be out there. I heard it was Floyd. Yeah. I've heard both, you know, that they have three, two or three different units on that will block a field goal depending on the alignments. And they definitely had communications in
the mix up, you know, whomever's to blame. I think that where I'm at with this team is that I like the past four days, we're recording today on Thursday, the 16th of November, I'm leading up to week 11, match up with the Jets this weekend. And I've, I've come to a place where think that Ken Dorsey wasn't, I think he did need to go for a long time. I was like,
no, Josh isn't taking the available check downs and this and that. But you know, a lot of people that I trust who think are very small, smart football individuals, including, you know, Dan Orlowski, bad quarterback in the league, very good analyst. Excellent analyst. Yeah, has shown some of the things that I think that frustrate Pills Mafia. And really the thing that he's done is articulated why it's so frustrating to watch in Josh Allen
not having answers in the offense being wildly predictable. And I think that's the biggest problem. I've got some statistics to share when we get into the Jets breakdown about why I think that Ken Dorsey is not it. Just in the last, you know, three meetings with the Jets, what Josh Allen has played like compared to the years against the same franchise
under Dable. So, you know, I think that the predictability and the fact that he put it all in the players to execute at extremely elite level to win the snap and the rep rather than providing scheme answers and staying one step ahead of the defense to make sure that they cannot literally read the formation. Oh, it's a two by two set. I know it's one
of four different route combinations. And if I see the receiver release this way, I'm going to just jump what I assume is the deep over that digs runs on 25% of plays where they look like this and this down in distance like that can't happen. Like this is the modern NFL and there now is enough tape on this bill's team. That's why they look like complete gang busters the first four weeks on offense. The Jets game aside. And then fell off a cliff
was basically there was no world where Ken Dorsey was able to evolve this offense. And on top of that with Dawson Knox going out for wrist surgery, he lost his his like only wrinkle. The only wrinkle he came up with in the off season was play action 12 personnel. Well, as soon as they can't have 12 personnel, for some reason they can no longer do play action and the whole offense seemed to take a massive step back.
Yeah, I agree. And again, it's I you and I did not advocate for anyone to get fired on this pod. And I would feel weird approaching this JJ from the standpoint of is the firing justified? Because the reality is you and I we're not insiders. We have no idea we have
no idea. All I think we can do is break down where the bills stood at the end of the Ken Dorsey era and try to figure out now with Joe Brady, a guy who comes in with with a reputation as a creative play caller, even though we didn't see a lot of that Carolina. The way I want to approach this is I want to break down where the bills offence is and where there could be a potential silver lining or improvement going from Dorsey to Brady.
And I think a great place to start JJ is the is the the reliance on a lot of these players to play almost perfect football. Now, this has been a trope in Bill's mafia Twitter, where everyone is saying this is an offense that doesn't allow for any margin of error. And we have a freewheeling QB and it forces him to play out of his play style. The reality is is that this offense that the Dorsey scheme to relied heavily on pre snap recognition
and then option routes for these wide receivers. And if there was a misread pre snap by Josh, or if Josh thought so so strongly that his initial read of pre snap was going to be there, he wouldn't look off of it and he would force it there because he had to believe eventually that that combination was going to open up for him. It was a combination of relying too much on pre snap. And I think a pre snap ability that Josh never really showcased that he
had that paint manning like analysis ability. But then also to your point, having limited solutions and limited options, when the reads and the routes that Joshua was expecting weren't there. I think it was that. And I think it was the lack of ability to adjust early in the game. And I'll give you a perfect example. EPA for this Buffalo Bills offense through quarters one and two offensive EPA, the Buffalo Bills were in the middle of the league. So
defensive EPA per play was right around the zero mark. So not really costing the bills anything, but also not gaining them anything. And we've talked about their production. So offensively, in the first two quarters of a game, this is for the whole season, the Buffalo Bills, EPA for offensive plays was also at zero. This is a team that in the first half of games offensively simply couldn't get going. Flash forward to quarters three
and four. This team leads the league in offensive EPA in the third and fourth quarter. So there was flipping too late offensively for this team to ultimately get going. I think it had a lot to do with Dorsey making late game making adjustments, not making adjustments quickly
enough as we've talked about. I think it's worth also noting that, you know, again, it's we're at a disadvantage, like you said, we can't make this firing a valid or invalid kind of statement, we can't make any sort of judgment on it to know if it was the right move or the wrong move. And I guess the time will tell, right? Like the semester, we'll see how the offense does. We'll see how they execute and maybe it's better, maybe it's worse, right?
The rest of the semester, I can tell where you're at. Geez, yeah, yeah. Again, both working in used to work in higher ed and work in higher ed. So the rest of the season, yeah, we'll see where it's at. And I think that one of the biggest things, you know, when you talk about Josh making pre snap reads and Josh, Josh this, I think that Ken Dorsey's offense, like you mentioned, is not terrible. But it is the kind of thing that's built on there are three components for almost every play
and especially every long and late down like third and longs. It's basically the component is like you said, Josh needs to know exactly what where he wants to go with the ball pre snap. He needs to make an adjustment to that read post snap, especially if they rotate coverage, drop out, you know, and bring only a three man rush and eight are in coverage. And then from that, both he and the wide receiver have to make the same decision on the play
because so much of the offense was built on option routes. And that's awesome for people like Stefan Diggs, who, you know, has this amazing connection to Josh Allen can make a read of what the defense is trying to do to him and snap off his route into one of six or seven different options. And Josh Allen, hopefully, and that's the third component is Josh Allen and Stefan Diggs have to like mind meld and know exactly where the ball
needs to hit at the right time. And if you don't, you know, with option routes is being such a massive part of this, this offense, if there's an execution error, that's an interception. That's why I think we saw some Gabe Davis intercept, you know, interceptions while targeting Gabe Davis, some, some status on I didn't double check in myself. So if it's wrong, I apologize, was essentially, you know, Gabe Davis was targeted on 16% or
something of all throws for the season. But 55% of the interceptions Josh Allen is throwing were towards Gabe Davis. No, that was true. That was last year. We so that was true last year as well. So we broke this down when the bills went into a midseason swoon, ironically, at a similar time. By the way, happy anniversary to the Minnesota Vikings game, which happened one year to the day of the Monday night. Oh, really? Oh, yeah, that's miserable because
both were similarly. Yeah, they were similar in the in the scope that like both games were literally in the bills grasped like seven different times and they just squandered it away. Yeah, but but we did a similar we did a similar autopsy at that time and actually pulled the notes from that pod. And at that time, we had discovered that 60% 62% to be precise of Josh Allen's interceptions were on routes that targeted Gabe Davis according
to pro football reference. But it speaks to your point that chemistry with your with your QB and with your wide receiver is so important in an option heavy scheme. And digs and Allen have that Davis and Allen don't have that. And it also explains why it has taken the Buffalo Bills so long to onboard new weapons to this offense because it relies again on
perfection is a perfection is a strong word. But it relies on a mastery of pre snap reads, perfect adjustments, post snap, and then wide receivers and a QB and a highly highly volatile defensive environment that they're facing, getting on the same page quickly. I think it I think it explains a lot. And again, this is not a this is not a criticism of Dorsey.
It's an explanation and a reasoning I think of why this team is where it is, where digs continues to be good every year, Davis continues to struggle, I think the drops are more on Davis than anything else. But why this team throws money at Emmanuel Sanders and and D&T Hardy and all these other names and Trent Scherfield, and none of these guys can get on boarded into this offense. And really enough to make an impact. It's because the scheme
while or or laski is correct is relatively simple. Everybody gets a couple of route trees and then go out there. And then all those routes seem to end in the same place as well, which is another frustration of this offense. It relies too much on the things that Josh doesn't do well, and too little on the things that he does do well. And Josh, there's a huge chunk of blame in this too, because he never adjusted, I think appropriately to
this scheme. Well, and I think that, you know, just kind of as an aside, that I'll use the an example, you know, statistically from the from the Broncos game. But I think if you look through the other six games in the past, you know, month and a half of football that was since the Dolphins game where they've just looked, they've done poorly is, you know,
they lost lost the turnover battle in the Broncos game by negative three, right? They had four turnovers, the Broncos only turned the ball over once in the four turnovers, they had two interceptions, the Broncos had a punt off of one, you know, after taking possession and a field goal off the other. So that's plus three, you know, it's 10 point swing if the bills would have gotten a touchdown on that drive. Anyway, they had two fumbles
lost. And the Broncos got a field goal off of one 10 point swing and a punt off the others, you know, minus seven bills for the one turnover the Broncos gave up, the bills turned it into a touchdown. You know, they've been losing the turnout to a turnover battle consistently in all of their losses for the past six weeks. That can lay that at the feet of the defense a little bit. But of course, Josh Allen is making mistakes. The scheme is predictable,
they're all the problems we've been covering. But the bills on this is probably why the EPA per play and different DVOA standings, the bills are turning those, you know, opportunities, they do extra opportunities, they do have into more points than the opponent. So the defense is actually, you know, statistically doing a little better because they're stopping drives that they have no business stopping because the offense is coughing it up a plus
yardage. And then when the defense does break a turnover, get a fumble because they haven't had an interception in what it's five weeks now, it's the longest, the longest streak in team history without a perception of correct four or five games, which is just pathetic. And it's sad and like you're just like, Oh my gosh, Russell Douglas save us, please.
And so, you know, in that kind of streak of bad turnover luck and not being able to get ahead and not getting extra possessions, you know, that's how we get these games where they lose close or win close over inferior opponents, because the opponent has the edge they need with a couple of extra possessions and the bills don't, even if they're doing more with less and protecting their own end zone better.
And the irony of these turnovers, and it's, it's interesting, and I'm going to sound like a Josh Apologist and I don't mean to because I think he does deserve to take a full slice of accountability here. But according to PFF, his turnover worthy throws are at a career low 2.4%. 2.4% of his throws are turnover worthy. And yet he is leading the league in interceptions as we sit here now potting about this very topic. Now on the
broadcast, it looks like he is just making dumb throw after dumb throw. But over the course of the season in the aggregate, he is making really good decisions. He's playing it the most efficient level he has played in his entire career, his completion percentage and completion percentage above expectation, also the highest that it's been at any point
in his career. Dude, none of this makes sense. And it boils, it boils down to a little bit, I think of kind of what you're alluding to and why so many people are having a hard time wrapping their heads around what is wrong with this team. Because Josh is statistically and he's not regressing. He is the same QB that he has been.
Well, and I'll say this, I think that you touched on it very briefly, there is the predictability of the route tree, the statistic of turnover worthy throws measures separation, usually measures the separation of the intended receiver at the point the throw is made. And what I'll say is a counter to that statistic is, I know that that's accurate, it's a true statistic, it's reasonable, it usually tracks pretty well with the best and worst quarterbacks
in the league when you look at it year over year. And their actual interceptions versus turnover worthy throws varies because of again, luck, right, there's a luck component. But I do think that for the gap, because, you know, CJ Stroud, rookie sensation in Houston has the same turnover worthy throw percentage, and only two interceptions on the year. But I think where the difference is, is it's not just luck, because you can, you know, it's
easy to be, oh, it's just bad luck, shitty luck. But what you need to look at is that where the actual charting of those throws and turnover worthiness or not, doesn't capture is whether or not the DB is baiting that throw based on the predictability of that route tree. And in situations where the DB is baiting that throw, they are literally giving the cushion they know Josh is looking for to rip it. And once he rips it, they're breaking
to the point that they know the ball will be at. So essentially, they're also skewing the turnover worthy throw statistic by giving separation to a receiver they know is going to break in a certain direction, and then beating them to the spot. Yeah, no, that's perfectly said. It's perfectly said. We saw that with Jabril Peppers in New England very first throw in the game. Cam Taylor Britt. Cam Taylor Britt did it right. I mean, AJ Terrell on the Atlanta Falcons last season,
yes, very same thing. You started to see a lot of DB is understanding where these routes were end would end to stay just outside the window of visibility for Patrick Peterson last minute break. Patrick Peterson where they claim of his life. Yeah, the game ceiling interception on Josh Allen and overtime. It wasn't an overtime for Minnesota. I don't think it was over time. I think it was fourth quarter. It was fourth quarter. It was out
of the game. But he had the game ceiling interception in the end zone. And he's explained it publicly many times that he watched the film. He knew that when Gabe Davis was lined up in that situation, that kind of play selection in that formation, there were only two routes that he would run. And he just literally sat on the one he he guessed right, he had a 5050 shot of guessing right, he sat in the exact spot knew where Josh Allen send the ball after
a certain break. And he picked it off like, and that's part of the reason that, you know, we're talking about a lot of different components. There's a lot that goes into this. Josh Allen isn't faultless. Sean McDermott, if he's influencing play selection and demanding this low thing to settle, he is not faultless. Oh, I can guarantee you he is and I got some stats for that. But you go on. Yeah. And Ken Dorsey certainly carries some of the fault
as well. All that said, I think that what we've seen over the entire, you know, 10 year of Ken Dorsey's briefstin and offensive coordinator is that this offense at times has gotten stale. They've rarely been able to reinvent. They tend to make adjustments in game too late to be effective. And they also don't come up with easy schemed ways to get their best
players in open space. And there's so much that I want to see done with Dalton Kincaid and James Cook that they have not done because I think of a lack of creativity and a lack of ingenuity at the coordinator position. Right. This was an offense. And it's been so interesting to listen to the media takes on this because you have a lot of the advanced
analytics nerds coming out and being like, this is Josh's fault. If Ken Dorsey, you know, if Josh wouldn't turn the ball over so much, Ken Dorsey would still have a job. Their underlying efficiency metrics are great. Top third in the league in most efficiency categories offensively, except in the one that means the most. And that's the score on the scoreboard at the end of the game. This team simply not putting enough points
on the board to win knowing that it has a deficient offense. Now, the counter argument to that is because the defense is deficient, right, the Buffalo Bills offense are put in less than ideal circumstances. They have been in the past in order to succeed. But the success rate of this offense is still top third in the league. I dude, I don't know. I don't know how to say it better other than the Dorsey offense got us to the doorstep, but it wasn't
getting us inside the door. If that makes an allergy makes any kind of sense when it came to when it came to actually putting points on the board. So what to expect from the Job Brady offense? I don't know. But I don't think the changes are wholesale. And I don't think they have time for wholesale changes. And this might be a good, good time to transition into our Jets pregame. I don't know if we have time for wholesale changes now, or even
the week after when we play Philadelphia. But I think there are things on the margins that we can do that will make this offense not just efficient, but also more effective
than it was under Dorsey. Yeah. Well, and that's, you know, I think that one thing I have a little bit of hope for is during Joe Brady's introductory press conference today, his first press conference as I was seeing one thing he said that kind of resonated with me as he said, he said, I have to, you know, kind of bring the juice and the energy, but I also have to be the calm when those guys need it, need to be the
voice, you know, that's that's keeping them steady, focused and calm. Actually, that gave me more hope for this team that I've had in days. Because I think that, you know, we all remember laughing and giggling to ourselves that, you know, Ken Dorsey freaking out and
breaking his Microsoft surface in the in the booth in Miami during the heat game. And various and times, yeah, so there's times, well, and I think that that's that's another thing that like I think drew, you know, Josh Allen to him and made him Josh Allen's pick for the OC when Brian Dabell is he's a fired up competitor. And I think that, you know, that that vibe with Josh Allen's, you know, sensibilities. But I think, you know, Dabell, Dabell would
get in Josh's face. He was he was very, you know, animated and energetic and, you know, fiery. But he wasn't emotional, that makes sense. Like he he applied emotion to situations to get his point across. But he seemed to be always in control. And I think in Dorsey's play calling, just as an amateur person watching TV felt like all we are we get in week out. Yeah, exactly. It felt like at times he was calling plays from emotional perspective.
When they shut something down, you know, he would get angry that it was shut down and try to hit it harder, or he would get demoralized from the fact that his, you know, the same QB draw that he ran five or six different times per week, where he motions the running back out of the backfield to make it an empty set towards the bunts formation and then runs that, you know, QB delayed draw that gets completely swallowed three times on Monday
night against the the Jets week one. That's he just like keeps smashing this button because he's I know this play is good. I know this play is good. It's gonna work. Finally, it's
gonna work. And that's doesn't that doesn't work in NFL. And so I wonder if Joe Brady will have, you know, some pivots and some counter punches that aren't just that don't just look like ego, just declaring that we have the better roster and we're going to beat you with something and actually are like, you know, a little bit humble and hungry, like John McDermott likes to say and you're like, okay, you've got us on that one. And
it's probably not going to work because you've definitely studied it. So we're going to add a wrinkle, we're going to change it. We're instead of doing the jumbo set to the left, Josh Allen naked boot to the right that every CB has blitzed and ruined Josh Allen's day on, we're going to, you know, fake that except the handoffs going to go or there's going to be an end around element, something that can kind of add wrinkles. Like hopefully we
get to see that a little bit. And I really liked, you know, some of Joe Brady's comments are, you know, I need to bring the juice, but I also need to be the calm voice in the room because maybe, maybe he's kind of endorse these issues and the reasons that players were not executing for him was he was too fired up. I mean, who knows. Yeah, I mean, who knows.
Yeah, I mean, at this point, we've done this for 34 minutes and it's felt cathartic, but I am no closer to understanding where this team gets better because again, the Dorsey the Dorsey firing again, not trying to justify or not justify it, call it right or wrong, whatever we want to. It opens the door for opportunities for this bill's team to improve on the margins. But here's what it doesn't do. Doesn't make the defense play any better
or get any healthier. It doesn't change some of the underlying, I would say regression of other metrics of this team that have been happening throughout the course of the season. Case in point, Sean McDermott, taking now fire, effectively firing definitely Dorsey and probably Frazier, both of his coordinators in less than a year span and making the decision to take on individual play calling duties. He has been an incredible defensive play caller
in Schember this season. I you could argue he's one of the best offensive coordinators in the league, but it's clear to see and I think the Denver game was the most obvious example of it with 12 men on the field, but it's clear to see that it is taking a toll in the way he approaches his head coaching duties as well. Great example is fourth down probability calls, right? What percentage are teams making the right call to go for
it on fourth and down? Fourth down, the Buffalo Bills were number two in correct rate in making that call this year. They've dropped all the way down to number eight. They're behind the Tennessee Titans in this metric. They're behind the Carolina Panthers in the in the LA Charger that the LA Chargers in this metric, right? So McDermott's overall quality of coaching has suffered as a result of his desire to take on play calling like they fired Frazier.
They didn't want to trust anybody else in the room or anybody else they had brought into that defensive room to take on play calling. So McDermott was going to take it and that's fine. But the point that we are at now is clearly his management of this team has executive leadership, if you will, of this team is beginning to deteriorate somewhat. So firing Dorsey doesn't fix that. And I think this year you see it play out in the numbers. There were always
these rumors that McDermott and Dable didn't get along. McDermott was trying to impose too much of his own philosophy on the offense. Warren Sharp came out and tweeted it. The noted sports sports book at sports gambler, Warren Sharp came out and tweeted it that McDermott had interfered in the offense so much this season that it had become unrecognizable.
And this is an offense that used to be last season, one of the highest and most effective by in terms of rate and frequency highest and most effective teams and throwing the ball on first down. And this year when they throw the ball on first down, they're averaging just under nine yards per play on completion. The problem is they're doing it less. They're doing it less, which is what we know McDermott wants them to do. Last year they were doing
it at a rate of just above 65%. That rate this season is closer to 59%, which again, is a marginal percentage decrease that is enough to affect the scoreboard, maybe not the underlying success metrics of this offense, but it's enough to impact the scoreboard when you are not running your best play on first down every time for the sake of complimentary football. So again, and we covered this last time, there's blame to go around.
Well, and I think that's the biggest thing too is like we talked about it, you know, in the pod previously, I said, you know, I have the empathy to understand that if you have a depleted defense that's playing with only five of your preferred 11 starters, you the last thing in the world you want is your offense to go out, go three and out after three pass plays, take 16 seconds off the clock and you're back out there, right? Like, I
get that. But I think you're absolutely right. If this team is going to go anywhere, Sean McDermott needs to kind of throw his hands up and be like, Well, whatever happens to the defense happens to the defense, you know, unleash the reins, right? Like let the offense do whatever it needs to get points on the board and stop, you know, demanding tempo,
demanding slowing things down, demanding running the ball, establishing the run. Although I will say it's frustrating in the Broncos game, you know, Sean McDermott benching James Cook for 16 plays or 18 plays after his ridiculous, ridiculous, benching Gabe Davis for tipping an interception that hit his hand, the ball that hit his hands on a good, good placed pass directly into the waiting arms of a safety like benching Gabe Davis, but benching James
Cook is just such bullshit. And I think that it's we've seen this so many times in Sean McDermott's tenure, it's one of my biggest problems with him. I tend to like I said before, I tend to be a defender of Sean McDermott for the most part. But his whole like stance about punishment and kind of being, you know, punitive with his players when they make mistakes is like, I don't think it vibes with the modern NFL player. I don't think anyone respects
that. I think that, you know, Andy Reid has a really excellent approach, which is, if you make a mistake, you know, I'm going to I'm going to throw the ball to you three more plays immediately after so you get your confidence back. And I've always thought that's a better way to go about things. It's it's doubling down on things that Sean McDermott says and actually acting upon them. Like I love, you know, what's about love, we're doing this
for each other like, etc, etc. Everyone needs to do their 111. And then he does something like that, which just looks like somebody who's conservative and afraid. He's too afraid of failure to trust that they're going to turn it around on their own. And it's just, oh my God, it frustrates me so much. And everybody jokes about it. I mean, like, when Zach Moss was a rookie, I think he fumbled, you know, early in his season, we didn't see
him for four games, he was inactive. Like, it's just the kind of thing where it's, it's not the way to go. But he's such Sean McDermott such a principled guy that like, he's probably never going to change and I'm always going to hate him. He he looks like he is having the least amount of fun. Game in and game out on that sideline. And I've got to believe that it starts to permeate the rest of that, the rest of that
clubhouse, right? I mean, he looks like a dude who is coaching for his job and is living and dying by every single play that is on the field. And I think I can I think it's having an impact on the team. And it's a direct result of him being just spread so thin, so thin because of his defensive duties. Dorsey's firing to me has changed nothing about what I feel needs to change with this group, right? Like, is Joe Brady doing more RPOs and lining
up Josh under center more and running more action, right? And running more 21 personnel like you didn't Carolina. That's the magic bullet for this. No, the issues are far more systemic at this point. I think it was Matt Perino asked during Josh's media availability this week, you know, do you you don't look like you're having fun like you don't look like you're having fun
playing football? And like the answer that Josh will first of all, if you've watched any of Josh's media availability, not just after losses, but in general, after having fun, no, he looks freaking miserable. He looks like this is the worst day of his life every day. The only time he looked like he was having fun was when he pointed at that bangle that he shook out of his cleats a couple of weeks ago. I was like, that's the Josh I know. That's
the only time we've seen it. Like, where is the kid who would talk? Where is the kid who would be like, I love that shit. Every time you got tackled or telling an opposing DB to people, sorry, Rizul Douglas, right? Like you suck. I mean, where is he? Where is that dude because like, like you said, yeah, he pointed to the Bengals, they flagged him on
the play and then he went back in his shell. And like I said, I think it was Matt Perino or somebody asked him in media availability, like, you know, you don't look like you're having fun. Are you enjoy football? And Josh Allen's answer terrified. He was like, you know, because he's been talking about this low positive energy that he brings of like, you know, staying trying to stay steady and confident and, you know, I could too high
and not to get too low. But his direct quote was like, along the lines of everybody grows and matures as people and players. So, you know, I don't know how to answer. And they just sort of mumbled and trailed off. I was like, Oh my God, that's terrifying. Everybody grows and matures as people players. You look like you hate your life. And I'll like that's not where you want to grow to.
No, that's not the maturity we want. The maturity that we want is for you to take free yards with open guys and stopped getting locked in to your pre snap reads and And we're watching the shirt and go out of bounds. The whole way there. Right. Give the middle finger to the refs and every defender that you hurdle over. We don't care. We don't want we don't want emotional maturity. We want professional maturity.
But we also and we want we want our Josh back is what we're saying. We want the the gunslinger hurtling over people talking trash to other teams got even in the Miami game where we were throttling the dolphins. Usually Christian Wilkins and Josh Allen, they're going at it. And Josh was just not having any of this. Right. To the huddle every. Yeah, every play is no chirping. And I don't know if that's McDermott.
I don't know if that's Josh Allen's personal stuff. I don't know if it's just him. I don't know what's going on. I think that everybody sees it and we're all very worried. If I were if I were six, five, two hundred and fifty pounds could run like a gazelle and had a cannon for an arm. I would talk shit every minute of every day. Seriously, I would I would take the I would take the fines to wear cut off football pants
on the NFL field. Exactly. Right. I would just cut a check to the league pre game. Here's here's I'd work it on my contract. Here's 30 percent of my pay because you're going to flag me 15 times for taunting in this game. And I just wear just a cowboy hat. No helmet. Like it was, you know, yeah, I don't know what's going on. And like kind of shifting into the Bill's Jets preview. This is probably not the week that we're going to see that
Josh back because he's pretty abysmal against the Jets. The Jets are in a lage to top one defense in the league. They are they are they're they're tops in terms of EPA and defensive DVOA. I mean, their offense is abysmal, but Zach Wilson is two and one against this team. I mean, in the last couple of seasons, so Zach Wilson seems to have his best game was against the Buffalo Bills for whatever reason. So yeah, it's going to be interesting. And
it's a short week. A new offensive coordinator. I think Bill's Bill's fans expecting and we could be wrong, but Bill's fans expecting that all of a sudden Joe Brady is going to unlock a 45 point game out of this offense against a defense that just knows how to play these bills. I think is mistaken. And we'll get to this when we talk about score predictions.
But I would expect something of a slugfest between these two teams with the hope being that offensively, we start to see some of these more some of these more personnel friendly concepts, as opposed to the strict adherence to the scheme that we had under Dorsey start to come through. And again, it's so tropey, and it sounds like such easy button stuff. RPOs, more play action or center Josh passing from under center taking traditional drop
backs. All of those things are things that are floating out on Twitter. None of it is imaginative. None of it is creative. But these are some of the things that I think we could do on the margins to help unlock this what is very efficient offense into potentially an explosive one, which is what they're going to need to be against the jets. They are and the jets are given up, you know, their seventh best in the league and opponent
points per game. Six, the top 10 in almost every defensive metric. They're really bad at fourth down conversion. So maybe this is a week where, you know, Sean McDermott puts it out there a little bit more and gets closer on those like fourth down calls and plus territory. And because they play with a lot of light boxes like the bills, you can run on this day as well. 30 second in the league in opposing rush or 31st in the league and opposing rush
is rush yards per game. So like they will give up the rush to protect against big plays over the top. Yeah, absolutely. Like every single team that plays against the bills. Now I'm now again, we have never advocated for like a 50 50 split. Josh is still your best player. You want to put the ball in his hands, but you've got to put this offense
in a position where they're getting more favorable matchups in the passing game. Well, so if teams are going to give you five or six free yards at a time with James Cook, you should take it. Well, and to that point, Dan, when you said you want to put the ball in Josh's hands, I don't think you do. I've got some statistics. So he's a Josh. Okay, well, okay.
This is this I got to hear. I got to hear the argument for taking the ball out of the hands of our best player, not taking the ball out of his hands, but literally not pass it. You know, dialing back the passing. No, go ahead, go ahead, McDermott. Tell me what you got. So in 10 career games, he's a six and four record, which seems good, but he's two, you know, one and two in the past three. The bills haven't scored more than 20 points
in any of the past three games. It was 17 and a loss in November last year, 20 and a win in December. And then of course, 16 on Monday night football to start the year. And that's this year. And maybe that's recency bias, but Josh Allen throwing four interceptions are giving four turnovers away to the Jets this same season worries me far greater than most other things. And here's the thing that I that I looked into, which is interesting.
So against the Jets, he's got 15 touchdowns nine passing six rushing against the Jets. He has 10 interceptions and 10 fumbles of which he lost seven of those so 17 turnovers. So with more turnovers than touchdowns. And in four consecutive the most four recent consecutive games, Josh Allen's bad throw percentage as charted by a pro football reference has been the among the five highest percentages of bad throws per game that he's had his entire
season. So in four consecutive matchups against these Jets with this defense, he's throwing bad throws at some of the highest rates of his seasons. And this is actually something that made me as I'm looking through this more critical of Ken Dorsey. Because if you look at all the games of tables 10 year, there are four game five games out of six tables 10 year that are worth charting this stat for because in the sixth one he Josh Allen
was out there for like one series. It was nothing game the bills didn't need it. He was only up for one series and 40% of his throws were bad throws, but then they just
kind of pulled him from the game and he didn't play anymore. But the rest the other five games, four of those five games had Josh Allen's lowest bad throw percentage, which tells me something about the scheme coming into those weeks, identified that and I think the defense was a little bit less stacked than it is now they didn't have sauce gardener for most of those. But it also kind of it shows me that that table had been scheming up better answers
for that defense which has been a solid defense for a number of years. In his years, then Dorsey was able to do in his years. It's it's just for some reason this Jets team is Josh Allen's kryptonite. And so I think that you know, it's a lot it's a tall task, but I think Joe Brady has to come up with some easy answers for Josh in the passing game to avoid him being baited into interceptions, because they're clearly capable of doing that over the past three years.
Now, it's interesting you bring bring Brady into that equation because there's not not a lot of history on what type of play caller he is. But you can glean a lot from the types of personnel packages that he ran in Carolina for the limited amount of time that he was their offensive coordinator. And Joe Brady is funny. So funny you mentioned running game.
Joe Brady ran higher than league average percentages of 12 personnel, 21 personnel, which is two running backs and one tight end and 22 personnel, which is two running backs in two tight ends. I think there is a world where we see the Buffalo Bills lean into more some more of these heavier sets to counter the the New York Jets propensity for playing with lighter boxes make them play pay for it early on in the game in the first and second half to then
set up the passing game later on. I could see the Buffalo I mean, listen, Sean McDermott doesn't know who he wants to play Latavius Murray or James Cook put them both on the field at the same time. Why not? Right. Like and Joe Brady is a guy who is called offenses that will do that to great effect. So it's going to be interesting to see the problem is we don't have enough on Brady to know what he's going to do. I don't think in a short
week or all of a sudden going to install new route trees. But I can see maybe Brady highlighting the areas of the playbook that have some of these RPOs that allow Josh to do what he does best, which is just react post snap. Don't get a preconceived notion in your head of where you're going with the ball pre snap and then try to force it react post snap and
find your guys when they get open. So I could I could see this being a play action run heavy RPO focused game that ends up being an absolute slog ends up being an absolute slog. Well, and, you know, I know about the Jets first build math for the first time in I think four weeks, the bills have less players on their on their injury report than the Jets than the opponent. And so on that could come into play a little bit. I think Chas is somebody
who has had some snaps Billy Turner on the offensive line has had some snaps. And they've all had been doing participate for the Jets for the first two weeks or two days of practice. For the bills, everybody has either maintained limited participants or improved from or did
not participate to limited participant as of today, Thursday. So hopefully we have some good news on Friday and game designations for players like Dorian Williams, Trent Scherfield, Jordan Phillips, Mike Christian Benford are all that they're good to go and that they're coming back. And then, you know, the Jets are pretty banged up. Garrett Wilson, their wide their star wide receiver will Donald their recent selection defensive end hasn't
really been able to get on the field. They both were limited participants up to this point in practice as was Mackay Bekton, their offensive tackle who's come on and had a much better year. So there might be some some matchup opportunities given who's going to be up and who's down for these two teams. It's gonna be interesting. Yeah, it's gonna be interesting to see what the Joe Brady, the Brady Bunchera, if you will,
will ultimately look like for these hollows. I hope to God we have like, I hope they do well enough that there's an opportunity to meme that. Yeah, oh God, that would be amazing. That'd be absolutely. You know what though, if we've come up with it, chances are the internet has came up with it yesterday. So I'm sure we're I'm sure we're behind the eight ball on this one. But I want to transition over to the bills defense versus the Jets offense, because this feels like a throwaway conversation
a little bit to some extent. But this is a Jets offense that has played well in spurts against this bill's defense. And the key has always been the Buffalo bills letting the Jets and Zach Wilson hang around, hang around. All of a sudden, it's a fumble or a strip sack or an interception. And this Jets offense is in primo field position in order to close
the gap on the bills. JJ, I can't believe I'm saying this. But what are the keys? Do you think for this Buffalo bills defense to shut down this Zach Wilson led Jets attack? The jet the the Zach Wilson led Jets attack that is not scored an offensive touchdown in 36 quarters of football? Do I have that right? I believe I have that right. Something
ridiculous. I'll say, you know, I before the Patriots game, I would be so bullish on even a depleted bills defense being able to like completely blank the scoreboard for the Jets. But after that Patriots game, where, you know, for some reason, McCorkle Jones came out and looked like, you know, shredded us. He came out and he looked like Steve Young for one game against this bills defense. Baby go, baby go, baby, baby go vibes for one game.
And then immediately following the bills game the next week looked absolute trash again. I'm just so worried that offensive coordinators have any sort of ability and I don't I don't you know, I know that the Broncos thing was was not a good experience for who's their offensive coordinator Nathan Nathaniel Hackett, former Bill's OC. I can't I'm offended for Hackett that you forgot he's still in the league. I forgot because he you know, had
such an abysmal showing and you know, mile high country. But he he's he's trying his best. You know, when you come in presuming you have Aaron Rodgers and then what they do is you know, wish Aaron Rodgers and it's you know, Zach Wilson, I think that you have to kind of do what you can. But you know, I liked the defense against the Broncos was playing pretty inspired and that Broncos offense has been much better this part of the season
than at the beginning of the season. And I think they showed it a little bit that it's their whole their whole thing was, you know, try to establish the run and if you can't, you know, throw up a Russ would throw up a you know, 5050 ball here and there and some of them they'd come down with a lot of screens. And so I expect to see the Jets try some of the concepts that the Broncos were successful on involving the tight ends like Cincinnati
did getting some screens and short passes going. I'm trying to manipulate the Garrett Wilson versus literally anybody in the bill seat defensive secondary because I don't think anyone of the bills defenders can cover him one on one without help and try to manipulate all those matchups and get some things going. The bill's defense I think they need to you
know, establish very early on pressure on Zach Wilson to get him off the spot. The bill or the the bills have still have a top 10 sack percentage in the league, but so do the Jets and their defense. But then the Jets offense is giving up, you know, the third most sacks in the league as a percentage of the total plays. Whereas the Buffalo bills are seventh
best. I'm sorry, second best in the league in allowing Josh Allen to be sacked. But like I said, top five in actually sacking the quarterback, I think that's going to be a big difference here. We saw some of this activity come back last week against the Broncos. And you know, I think that the bills can continue to do that, especially in the interior that line. Because at Oliver's number he's number one in the league in pressures from the DT position.
And their center is a backup and their guard is a and so he's going to have some opportunities there. Do you have any other notes about bills, offense versus defense or this defense versus the Jets offense? No, I'm really interested to see what Brady does with this offense. I'm not expecting miracles. I think if we see any drastic changes, it'll be after the
biweek. I think right now these bills are just trying to they're just trying to to muddle their way through this game in the Philadelphia game and then make their way to Kansas City in a couple of weeks. Defensively, listen, man, people are picking on where the bills are weak. Terrell Bernard has been great. But Dorian Williams and Tyrell Dodson are
still finding their way. Dane Jackson is absolutely a target for opposing teams. And teams are just kind of hitting the easy button that are attacking us on defense where they know we are weak, which is Dane Jackson in the middle of the field with our linebacking core being so depleted. So if the Jets have any ability to exploit those things, I think this is probably going to be a closer game than the spread would would lead us to believe
this game opened at seven and a half. There's a lot of money going on the Jets already in the slides down to six and a half and we're at Thursday. Thank you. Yeah. And so yeah, I think it's going to be interesting. But do you want to do some prediction sure to go wrong? Absolutely. It's our best segment. And last week, we were all both woefully around almost everything. We both had the bills winning in a close affair.
The bill lost in a close affair. You had the D line with two and a half sacks. I took the over you took the under they ended up getting four. So we won I won that one. You had Deontay Hardy, half touchdown over. I took the under and I was correct because he actually got an interception thrown on his on his route. I had to tall and concave 49 and a half yards receiving he went over at 52. You had over as well. I thought that Vaughn Miller, you
know, I was on the hope him. I thought that Vaughn Miller would get a sack and did not he did not hasn't done anything really. And then I had the bills getting a turnover. You had them not getting a turnover and they did recover a fumble. So that was last week's recap and now on to this week. What do you have for a score prediction Dan against the 20 to 14 bills when those went? Oh, yeah. And and this is this dude, this is a loser
leaves town match. Yeah. The playoff the playoff percentage goes down to single digits for the team that loses this game. This is absolutely a loser leaves town cage match in Buffalo. I mean, the epitome of must win if the bills want to salvage their season and maybe the last winnable game that they have on their schedule and for the next for the next month, right? Because they're not going to they're not going to be favored against Philly. They're
not going to be favored against Kansas City. They won't be favored against Dallas. The next time they're going to be there, I don't think they're going to be favored against LA, depending on where LA ends up. The next game they're probably going to be favored in is what the the Pats and Bailey Zappie. Maybe. Yeah. I mean, this is this is a dude, if it's if not now when right, which again makes this this dorsi firing at this time
at this timing, all the more all the more interesting. Listen, this is going to look one of two ways. This is going to look like a complete panic move by a head coach who is on the hot seat. Or it's going to look like a stroke of genius because we've had the next Sean McVeigh sitting on the sitting on the sidelines that for the past year and a half and haven't tapped into him yet. You know, this is only going to play out in the extremes
because that's what the NFL is. And probably not the extreme scoring. So actually really like your score projection because I think this is going to be a low, low scoring affair. I think it's going to be, you know, I even have it a little bit lower. I have a 16 to
10 bills win. Oh my God, the wooden agonizing slog. That would be. But here's the thing, the magic of Zach Wilson, if he is within six points of this bills team, he always finds a way to pull out, which is just so obscene because all I wanted to see I was, you know, I was at a PT appointment and there was a one of the providers there as a Jets fan and they were talking about, you know, they were just talking whole, whole ass smack about
the bills organization, firing condoracy, Josh Allen's completely washed and I'll never bring it back. And the only retort I had, which is nothing because well, since two and one against the bills in the most recent three was I was like, yeah, and maybe the bills lose and maybe this is all just a mess in the season's lost. But I will give anything just to see that one play where Zach Wilson drops back 46 yards and then pukes all over
himself and fumbles it because like that's what I live for. Like they, bills could lose, you know, 21 to seven if that one seven point score is on a scoop and score fumble because he looks like a complete idiot dropping back to his own 30 yard line when they're on the plus 20, you know, and so it's really what I'm hoping for. I'm hoping just to see at least a little bit of just miserable crap Zach Wilson play because I need it right.
Just pick them off three times just like something just hit him a bunch of times in the pocket. So he just looks scab scared and terrified and skittish like, come on, every, every other team absolutely roasts this kid and he seems to just own us for some reason. Become zacky icing against the bills for some somehow. It really does. Oh God, what an agonizing game that would be if your score prediction is right. All right, here's my prop. But it's actually for the jets over under half an offensive
touchdown. This is a team that has not scored in an offensive touchdown and I want to say the past the past 16 quarters that they've played so past four games, no offensive touchdowns. You're over. I'm guessing I'm taking the over. Yes, we are. We are a perpetual get right game. Zach Wilson. I'm taking the over to can't I can't imagine he doesn't score on us. I mean, honestly, it's more in the run game. I think with with breeze hall breeze
hall breeze hall against the slow defense the bills have. Yeah. Yeah. And they're going to they're going to if breeze hall here's another prop for you. Breeze hall over under 22 and a half total touches in this game 22 and a half total touches. I'm taking the under because mostly because I I think the bills run defense though statistically doesn't look great. I think that they tend to scare offensive coordinators away from the rush often enough
by blowing up plays because of Ed Oliver mostly at Oliver Gregor. So tend to do some things or even you know, even to rel Bernard coming back in this game tend to do some things here and there that make offensive coordinators are a little bit hesitant. You know, they'll get that that four or five yard loss or completely snuff out of screenplay and have a Taylor come up and blow it up or something like that. So I think that there's an opportunity for
them to scare them off a breeze hall touches but you're taking the over I presume. Yeah, I'm taking the over I think and I think this is most of these touches come in the traditional run game. I think I think they're going to have Zach handed off to Breeze a bunch of times until the bills are forced to adjust. And Zach is in a more favorable match up position with some of his weapons on the outside. Okay, I've got two props for you. My first Dalton
can arcade half touchdown. I'll take this is a tough one. You know, this is a good safety group. This is a better than average linebacking core. The middle the middle of the field is tough to get against the Jets. And that is where can Kate makes most of his hey, I'm going to say I'm going to say under I don't think the kid touchdown you're going to and all the counterpoint I have to that the reason I'm taking over is that I think that Joe Brady
has a little bit more comfortability with some of the tight end schemes. Based on his time in college and his time at Carolina and so and see an opportunity where he has Q Morris and can Cade in some some of those like two tight end looks and scheme something open for Dalton can Cade who who I think in in in large part is one of those players that we've even seen in the darkness of the last six weeks has sort of come on as a first year
tight end and shown that he has the capacity to like really navigate NFL defenses and find soft spots and zones. And I think that with the Jets being such a zone heavy scheme where they do clutter the middle of the field, I think there's still going to be some pockets for him. Yeah, I think the Jets are going to try to take away Cade and digs and they're going to try to make Gabe Davis beat us. Geez. We're screw screw 16, 16 10 it is. Yeah, exactly.
16 10 it is. All right, what's your last prop? And my last prop is Von Miller half session. I just desperately want to see it. I know under under under under under under because I just need him to get one under. I am under until he actually does it. Zach Wilson. So soon. Yeah, but he's also like he's pretty mobile too. That's true. I just it feels like every time he plays us he has some freaking rollout play where he hits Garrett
Wilson for 42 yards. He always does. I just it's just it's crazy. He has his best games against us. He's such trash, but he has his best games against us. It's crazy. You know, to kind of close it out, my final thought is, hey, Bill's mafia. If I heard any of you on Twitter after that Monday night game, my apologies, I'd had a couple of beers and dude, you were on a heater. Was in my feelings. I was the roasting people who claim that, you
know, Josh Allen wasn't the problem. I was roasting people that claim that Ken Dorsey was the problem. I was roasting people that claim Josh Allen. It was or wasn't that I was I mean, I was I was fire McDormitt. I was keep McDermott for five more years. I was everywhere all at once. In our last pod together, I talked about spinning out it kind of reached a crescendo. And I've come back to earth and decided to just be a low positive
go bills. No, it should nice. Yeah, I I'm not on Twitter. And I had people texting me your tweets. That's that's that's the that's the level of notoriety you've hit with some of your takes. And to put official me a culpa up just to like try to maintain some professionalism over official Twitter. I'm so sorry. No, you're good. You're fine. You're fine. It's it's it is a reasonable emotion that you went through, my friend. Don't worry about it. All right.
Speaking of emotions, may we for the first time in a few weeks experience some happy ones after the Sunday when our our bills play the New Jersey Jets. But until then, for those of you listening at home, like share and subscribe wherever you get your podcast, Google Apple Spotify, drop us a review. And as always, go bills bills.