All right, welcome back to Buffalo Bread podcast. The illustrious Dan and JJ are here to break down the Monday night showdown between the bills and jets. Talk about our thoughts about the loss by the kids and chiefs against the Detroit Lions last night and get you ready for the game this Monday. Dan, how are you feeling? I feel a strong level of empathy for chiefs fans this morning because they woke up to a stat line that I think Bill's fans were sorely familiar with from last year.
Patrick Mahomes on targets to wide receivers. Those wide receivers against Detroit last night in the season opener recorded four dropped passes on on on pace to on pace to shatter last year's Buffalo Bill's record of 29 dropped passes by wide receiver targets, which was second in the league in the most our team had seen since 2007. So so those of you in chiefs kingdom, I wake up feeling a strong bond with you today over wide receiver and competency. Well, welcome to our world, friends. Welcome.
Welcome. It's been a while since we've seen you here with the easy button Travis Kelsey out of the lineup and Chris Jones missing from that matchup. I think that it really shows something that we've talked about on this pod before of it's it's great to put together a good roster of good footfall players. It's great to put together, you know, quality depth, you know, all levels of the field.
But really, you need your superstars and when a team as dominant as the chiefs have been the last, you know, three or four seasons, most wins in the league over that span and two championships to speak of, of course, as a team that's dominant as a chiefs comes to a rising Detroit Lions, you know, match up and that home, no less, but doesn't have their two two of their biggest three superstars, I would say in Travis Kelsey, Chris Jones. It really I mean, it showed up.
Detroit had a lot more availability in the middle of the field. And Patrick Malmöms did not have anyone he trusted anywhere around that field. Although I saw some good things from Rishi Rice. Yeah, Rice Rice, the highly touted rookie rookie draft pick for the chiefs. He looked good. He looks like someone that that team can develop. And I know everybody this morning is Barry and Kaderius Tony, rightfully so. That that pick six that Malmöms threw was all over Codoni.
I mean, are all over Tony. It's Malmöms. Codoni, Codoni, Tony Malmöms put it right on his hands. And of course, the internet memes are are strong with our generation. There were immediately memes of Andy Reed never playing Tony again and all this other stuff. We've also got to remember that Andy Reed is the same guy who. After McCall Hardman made he fumble against the Buffalo Bills. And I can't remember what I can't remember which playoff matchup it was.
I can't remember if it was 13 seconds or the AFC Championship game. It was the AFC. It was the AFC Championship game. Hardman fumbles absolutely Muff said gives it back to the Bills kills a great offensive drive very next drive. Reed goes right back to him. I think I think we're going to see him try to build up Tony in the same way. They gave up a second round draft pick, which is not cheap for him. They like his skill set in that offense.
It rough start to the season and maybe the most miserable stat line I've ever seen, which is I think one yard on two targets with one catch and one absolutely Muff perfect pass from the homes. But this is the kind of stuff that separates Reed as a coach and developer from other guys in the league where other guys like Sean Payton who's saying you fumble a ball for me. I'm going to make your run outside the complex until you puke.
Reed is going to figure out a way to factor Tony into the next game plan. And get him cooking. I mean, yeah, he probably will. I think that it's that's the storyline out of this. I mean, it was bad. I mean, Kaderis Tony also one one Gary one Gary for negative one yards. Like you said, one one catch on one for one yard on like four targets. Yeah. And the thing I think that builds mafia, you know, confide with me on right now is the absolute gut-wrenching disgust of freaking Chris Collins.
Chris Collins worth as, you know, things are falling apart for the chiefs continuing to fawn all over the chiefs. It's just disgusting. Like he has no journalistic integrity. We've been over this before, but he's, you know, when the lions are scoring, he's subtle it. And then when the chiefs are scoring, he's like, welcome to chiefs country. It's like, dude, you're not supposed to be a fan. You're a national media personality.
And that got under a lot of people's skin and their, uh, the memes were flying around about Chris Collins worth as well as more. I think Collins worth knows that about himself. Like so many of these national talking heads are so self aware. Like they know what's going to get them in mentions and training on Twitter and all this other kind of stuff. Like Collins worth to some extent loves that he infuriates people and doesn't care because just make some richer.
Like every retweet, every meme that you make of this guy, like just adds a zero to his contract with NBC. So I don't think he cares. I really don't. Yeah. But yeah, but I mean, to, to sum it up before we get into, uh, football preview here for the bills, I would say that last night's game probably told us something that we already knew, which is without Kelsey, Kansas city is limited on pass catchers. They juju Smith Schuster was way more important to that team.
Laster, I think than any of us realize, even though he was their leading pat leading, leading receiver, um, there is a limit on the, as long as we have my homes, we are good strategy because he's eventually going to need some talent around him. And ultimately, I didn't think the, I didn't think the Kansas city chief's offensive line played particularly well either granted. They're going up a really good defensive front with Detroit led by Aiden Hutchinson.
Um, but the replacement of Wiley and, um, uh, who's the other guy? The other guy that just got rid of traded for him from Baltimore. Now signed with Cincinnati. Why can't I remember his name? Um, he's, oh, the, he's a, he's an offensive line. Offensive tackle. Yeah. Why can't I remember this? I'm going to have you look this up because I'm like, yeah, no, this thing, talking with her one.
But, but replete, but replaced key left tackle position with Joanne Taylor, who is a Wiley veteran from Jacksonville, but doesn't have necessarily the, the mobility and lateral speed. I think that they have been used to at that position or Lando Brown or Lando Brown, that's the guy. God, why can't I remember that? Yeah. No, except yeah, I know, right? Cause, cause yeah, um, cause I can't remember every single offensive line when the chief cycle through.
I just remember the ones they stole from us, Creece, home free and traceman. How are we always be pissed about that? Every pod will mention Creed. Um, but yeah, I mean, those are my main takeaways. The wider, the past catcher group pass to improve it will get a bump when Kelsey is eventually healthy, but how healthy he'll be. I don't know. It's an ACL strain, not a tear.
That's something is going to be playing on a razor's edge with the rest of the year and the offensive line doesn't look as good. I mean, it's a team, it's a team that has my homes, but I think is objectively less talented offensively than it was last year. So I think it's going to be tough going for the chiefs this year. I think so too. And I think that the, that, you know, their division is going to be, I think, more challenging. I think that the Raiders are probably in a rebuild.
Um, but the Broncos are going to bring it a little bit. And the chargers we have yet to see them, of course, this season, they didn't do a great deal to upgrade, you know, their run defense and some other things, but they, they did, you know, sort of refine and reload in some key positions on offense. So they look like they're leaning into that side of the ball a little bit more. And I think that that's a reasonable strategy in this NFL.
So yeah, I think the chief, chiefs of a hard road, um, their schedule is not as terrible as kind of the bills, uh, dolphins, jets, Eagles, I think the Eagles have the hardest schedule in the league. So, um, it'll be, it'll be interesting to see where they kind of stand at the, after the first six games.
And I think a lot of where they stand will depend on, as I said, the, those superstar talents and when they're back on the field and when they're back on the field and capable in Chris Jones and Travis Kelsey, because it was, it was obvious to me watching bits of that game last night that, um, that they just woefully, woefully missed those, those pieces.
And for a chiefs team, you know, it's a little bit, it's, it's kind of like the, the, the bills build of their roster that, you know, we've lauded, um, branded bead for it almost started down there in Kansas city with, okay, we're going to get our young quarterback and we're going to build around them with capable short term, you know, free agents and some, and try to hit on some like meaningful draft picks that will build into something special, um, here and there,
but really having a key two or three superstars on each side of the ball is, is part of that strategy. And then everywhere else, it's just trying to get dependability and confidence in, in the players. Um, and when you're missing two, you know, that's, that's kind of a big deal. I'm two of the biggest ones. Yeah. And we don't want to make it seem like Detroit didn't do enough to win the game either because that, that line, that line's team is, that's fair. They're so interesting, right?
Like if I were, if I were to summarize what I saw from them, the, the offense has a very clear floor with Jared Goff. Um, I think Colin's worth it. Noted this in the broadcast last night. I was only kind of half paying attention to him, but Jared Goff had played good, not great for stretches of that game. There were definitely some throws that he missed that could have broken things wide open, but that's what you get with a Jared Goff, high floor, low ceiling type of player.
The scheme that Ben Johnson, their offensive coordinator is running. It re, I think people mistake it for old school ground and pound play action attack. That dude's doing some funky things with where he's lining up his guys. There was a, there were a couple of series where he had Sam LaPorta, the rookie tight end, out of God knows what school. Um, I think it's one of the smaller school.
But he was a highly touted tight end, uh, and a very highly touted draft class for tight ends coming out this year, had him lined up on the outside as a wide receiver. On Trent McDuffie, um, had him run a, uh, quick little cut route like he was going to block McDuffie, McDuffie bounced right off him, cut into the middle of the field, easy seven yard reception.
Um, he's just figuring out a way to make some of those parts and pieces that they have on offense there work really well behind what is a very talented offensive line too. I mean, yes, the chief's got to go off at some point, like it's going to happen no matter how good your offensive line is, but that lion's offensive line really stood out to me the time that golf had and the, the, the, the complexity of some of the routes that Johnson has these wide receivers running.
It requires a lot of time. It's almost like an Ohio state offense, like Ohio state, especially when, um, Justin Fields was the, was their QB, they were known for having these really complex, long developing route trees. And that's, that's a lot what the lions are running. It's very interesting to see Johnson is a coordinator. I'm going to keep an eye on as a potential head coaching candidate. Um, moving forward because I think that guy, that guy's going to get a shot.
I liked what I saw from that offense, not just from a talent perspective, but a scheme perspective yesterday. Well, and I also, I mean, I really liked seeing, um, Jameer Gibbs, their rookie running deal. Yeah, he used amazing who cares where they took him in the draft. That guy is all speed while you, you know, play to Georgia tech one year at Alabama was so good in that game, like average six yards per carry. So, you know, there's some, there's some exciting things about the trial ads.
Then, you know, there's the, also the, you know, Chris Collins, or it's getting memed all over the internet, but then also, um, Dan Campbell is, is getting memed as, you know, like giant livestock with huge slinging testicles when he did, uh, we went for it under, did a fake, fake punt from his own 15. Oh my God. That early in the game. Yeah. If had that failed. Oh my God. Had that failed.
Dude, people would have been calling for that guy's job because he's already like shaky with his in game decisions. Like the river boat, Dan Campbell, like persona is, is alive and well. Had that not worked out, dear Lord, like dear Lord, you can't, you know, you can't, your only identity can't be, you know, he's like the edge Lord of football. He's like trying to, you know, be, be the like, the out most outside the numbers and most like obscene when it comes to his decision making.
Um, you know, we're going to bite off their kneecaps is like going to haunt him forever, but he's backing it up by actually, you know, metaphorically biting kneecaps. You know, it's some crazy stuff. That's a guy who I think has been at least seven real kneecaps in his life. I can't talk about that with the level of beat without actually biting any. Yeah. No, I agree. I agree. He's a, he's definitely done the deed at some point. That, that man is, is authentic as we like to say.
So, yeah, could have gone south. All right. Yeah. No. So good for the Lions. Yeah. Good for good for us. Good for the middle against the chiefs. Right. All right. There you go. And like I, I don't, I don't hate the chiefs. Like I hated the Patriots for so many years. I don't hate the chiefs. I think, you know, I only, I don't like them when the bills are playing against them. I think sometimes they get, you know, too much credit, but also they, like I said, they have two championship.
They've been in five street AFC championship games. Like that's proven results. And so they're deserving of a lot of, a lot, it's not all of the praise. You know, it certainly hurts for us as bills fans because they've knocked us out a couple of times here and there. But, you know, I, I actually, I like the way they built the team. I let, there's a lot of players on that team that I admire and I think are excellent football players. And so it's kind of different.
I want the bills to keep their heads in every time they go, that's them. But, you know, it doesn't mean I dislike them. I actually hate it. The Patriots, like I think Bill Belichick is a jerk. I think Tom Brady's is a punk, you know, and so that aside, any loss that the chiefs incur is a win for me. No, I agree on the, on the scale of, scale of torture and trauma. The New England Patriots are 20 years ahead of where the New York, the, the kids that achieve SARS for his arm concerns.
So, all right. But yeah, again, congrats to the Lions winning the first official game of the season. And we are in a, in a neat transition that I'm about to do here. We hope the bills can do the same. So JJ, the Buffalo bills are playing meaningful football on Monday night against the New Jersey Jets. I don't know if you've heard that or not, but a big game coming up. So how do you want to do this, sir? You want to jump right into the game?
Do you want to talk about some of the starting roster decisions first? Drive this boat, my friend. Where do you want to start? So, and so here's the way I'd like to go in the pod. And this is like, you know, any, any presenter who's ever had to go in front of people, like it's good to lay it out for people because then they can follow along. They know where we are. I think we should start by talking very briefly about the 53 men roster.
It's been off for a couple of weeks now or just over a week. It feels like forever. 53 men roster straight into kind of who, who won the starting jobs? Can we can talk about as we go through those positions? And then the first four weeks roadmap, finally with the bills and jets preview. How does that sound for you? I'm good with it. How surprised were you that Josh Allen made the team?
I have to tell you, out of all of the surprises that could have happened, that's the one that shocked me the most. Okay. Yeah, I thought so. Even though it was touching go there for a while, he was a bubble player. But we also did all-seriousness. All-seriousness, no. I mean, not a whole lot of surprises. We had kind of talked about it last week on the pod as we previewed the 53 men. Now we actually have starters cemented. Not a ton of surprises here for me.
I think the place that I am most sad isn't the right word, right? But the place where I am least surprised and maybe feel most meh about is Benford getting the starting job over Kair Elam. And this could have, this was being telegraphed by that bill's coaching staff. The way they were using Elam at the end of the preseason, they weren't treating him like a starter. All the extra reps that they were giving him, they clearly thought that he needed that work.
So Christian Benford gets the starting gig, opposite of Trey White. And I think the thing I'll be most interested to see against the jets on Monday as we get real football is who's third DB up, right? Who's the first one off the bench? Is it going to be Dane Jackson or Elam? And I got a sneaking suspicion that it is Dane Jackson. And that Elam is buried at number four on the depth chart for outside corners. And I, in corner, we'll start on the defensive side of the ball. That's great.
And I am with you. I think a lot of Bill's fans are disappointed that the coaching staff is not playing Elam. But if you watch his play, it's not that the bills are protecting him because he's too young or whatever. He's just, he's too inconsistent. He's much too prone to get a defensive pass interference call. And he tends to get those defensive pass interference calls in the absolute worst times. So he doesn't have great awareness at time, distance, you know, game situation.
Like those are all super critical things in this defense and in any defense in the league. You have to know kind of where you are, where your help is and when not to make a mistake. And he's too mistake prone. You know, I think it's Joe Marino on lockdown bills often brings up the fact that Elam is 22 years old. He's two, almost two years younger than Belton concaid. And he's already, you know, onto his second season of the league.
So, you know, he's still got some development time, but this feels a lot like, it feels like he is a diet version of Tremade Edmonds at this point. It's like, here's this guy with amazing physical gifts. And I say diet version because Tremade Edmonds, because of his draft position and the need on the team, basically slotted in its middle linebacker position and held it the whole way through his five years, his four plus, you know, bonus year as a rookie in the first round.
Elam feels like that because I just think that he has this amazing physical talent, but he's not really putting it all together in the way that the coaching staff seems to want to see in consistency. And that was a thing that plagued Tremade Edmonds for the first couple of years. But he was always kind of his seat or his floor was much higher than the Elams. I think that you're right, Dan Jackson first. And there were no surprises in that cornerbacker.
Not even with Christian Benford getting the start, like I said, the way that they were using them was pretty obvious. Well, and again, we don't want to we don't want to short sell Benford. He earned the job, obviously. They wanted to give him this job the last year before he got hurt. He got the starting nod over and Kyra Elam. He was a head of Elam on last year's depth chart, too. No, Ben, listen, Benford, well, not the physically gifted and talented as Elam.
He is no slouch, athletically, like he's got some pretty great traits, massive wingspan. And he understands the scheme and he just he seemed to want it more. You know, they say about these small school guys that they just come in and they compete with a massive chip on their shoulder. And that was Benford. All camp, like he didn't let up for a single rep. He really gets the system. I think he'll be he will be a great option next to Trey White. I really do.
It's just it's also sad to see a team like the bills coaching staff that can take a six round pick from Villanova and mold him into a starter in two years, not be able to do the same thing with an athletic stud with the pedigree of Elam, right? And we don't need to get back into it because we've talked about how this team can find guys off the trash heap and turn them into stars. And that's that's amazing value. We don't need to rehash what we talked about, but it is.
It's this amazing disparity and it almost feels like hypocrisy that when they get some of these elite blue chip talents on the team, they're like, I don't know what to do with us. Like this dinner is too well prepared. I don't know how to enjoy this, right? Like I just I only need know how to repair my vehicle with gum wrappers and rubber bands. Exactly. And again, that's no knock on Benford, but he was a six round pick for reason. Yeah, you know what I mean? Like so. So yeah.
So but no, I mean, it's not surprising. We'll see if if Elam bears the tag of bust. I do think the bills want to hang on to him for the reason that you've been doing this year and I control cost control basis. So yeah. And he can help me 25 before he the bills need to need to need to make a decision about his future. And he came in last year and he played some great situational ball for them down the stretch. Worst case scenario, he's a great situational piece they can put in.
And he's a great situational piece. And he's a great situational piece. Much worse case scenario, he's a great situational piece they can put in, depending on what what McDermott is cooking up with some of the schemes that he's doing. And that could take some of the pressure off of Elam as well.
Just come in in the situations we know you can handle where we know we've got a man up on this particular rep, come in and play to your strengths and do what you do, as opposed to asking him to absorb a completely different scheme and system from what he played in college in a season and a half. Right. So, yeah, so this this hopefully if the bills play it right, it could be good for them and could be good for Elam as well in his development. Anything. Yeah, go ahead.
Yeah. I was going to say sticking with the defense. They named Tural Bernard who didn't play. I think he played maybe one snap, maybe not even one snap of preseason ball named Tural Bernard this this feels. Let it feels even less good than the quarterback position and middle linebacker because you know the question also on the longs who the heck's going to be lining up next to Matt Milano. It was a battle between Tural Dodson, Tural Bernard and Bale Inspector.
Bale Inspector of course gets hurt out for the season. But before that happened, he was basically basically removed from yeah, he was removed from the mix pretty early on in training camp. And then it was a two person race between Dodson and Bernard. And I don't think that Tural Bernard being injured for most of preseason played himself into the position. I think Tural Dodson played him his way out of it. Yep. And that's exactly what happened.
They were going to give Tural Dodson that chance to have the green dot on this element and call the defenses, which I think his communication, you know, Sean McBurman even congratulated him on that getting better in the offseason mastery of the defense and communication.
But he against starters in the preseason, he was such a liability and coverage and had also made some seemingly made some some poor choices on run fits that I feel like they were put in a position where they're like, well, Tural Dodson in practice, you know, in the return of the blue and red screen, regent different places like that showed enough that we think he's probably got better upside. And they're going to go with Tural Bernard to start the game.
And that's, that's actually kind of rare for Sean McDermott to talk about starters and where he plans on placing people. Because even coming out, you know, week one last year against the Rams and Bernard and Elam or Benford and Elam rather, we're going to play across from Dane Jackson. He didn't say anything is like, oh, it's still close. We're going to see what happens. But what, but this time around, he just straight up is like, no, you know, Benford gets to start at that CB.
We're going to start, you know, Tural Bernard at linebacker. And so that's going to be really, I'm going to be really curious to see how it changes the game, having two sub 230 pound linebackers match up linebackers in the middle of the field. Yeah, it's, um, trust me. Yeah, it's, it is. Yes. But we also knew that that was likely going to be the direction that they were going to be no matter what, based on the traits that they had on the team at that position. It's interesting.
And again, this is going to sound like a knock on Dodson, but it's interesting that the bills decided that zero preseason reps of Tural Bernard were more preferable to all the postseason reps of Tural Dodson. That is really, but here, here's why I, here's why I like the move. The bills, they don't seem to have plans for anybody on this roster outside of Josh Hale and when it comes to development. And they seem to stick and we've said this over and over again to same old, same old.
And Dodson's been on this roster for a while. And we have seen Dodson play meaningful NFL games and not play well. Had they gone to the Dodson well, we would have known that this coaching staff muffed another third round pick and Tural Bernard right away. Yeah. Right. Nothing from their past mistakes. Exactly. Exactly.
And that's the thing that I think has been most frustrating about the way the bills have managed the roster is that situationally and in some position areas, they will just simply give guys chances far too, far too long into their, into their tenure with the team when we can all see watching the game and watching film that some of these guys are cooked. Had Dodson been the pick, it would, that would have represented to me status quo thinking of the Buffalo Bills coaching staff.
The fact that it is Bernard and they're willing to take a chance on someone with his traits, it tells me that they are learning from some of these mistakes that they have made.
Well, and I think to expand that out, it's, it's the fact that they're just going to pull the trigger and go straight with, you know, Bernard on, on day one against in a big, huge divisional matchup, you know, Monday night football where he could puke all over himself, but they're going to, they're going to take that chance, right? They're going to put them out there and they're going to let them take us through. And yeah, they're going to let them try. They're so adverse to doing.
Yeah. They have been. So that's really like, and even if I think I'm worried, if I, even if I'm worried about it, I'm sure they're doing it. And I hope that that extends to so many other players and we'll talk about some of the offensive side of the ball, of course. But I do think that there's another piece, another layer of it that is something else that we wish this coaching staff would have done in years past. And that clearing of, or the signing of Christian Kersey to the practice squad.
So by signing Christian Kersey, who's a proven starter at middle linebacker, proven communicator, has some juice, especially with the past Russian blitzing and tends to, you know, played with Houston last year. The bill's new safety and secondary coach is from Houston. Their defensive coordinator had some familiarity with, with Kersey and Cleveland. Or I'm sorry, not the coordinator, their assistant defensive coordinator that they brought over Al Holcomb has some experience with Kersey.
So there's a lot of familiarity there with this player. And I think that he's, he's now in the practice squad can be elevated three times before they have to sign up to the roster. If things go really poorly after a couple of weeks, that's a backup option.
And that's something that we also had a problem with the bills not doing in years past of finding somebody out in the field, it who could play or possibly produce better than a danger exit than a Levi Wallace, then somebody who we saw repeatedly getting beat up, you know, time after time. They've shown that they're, if something is not up to their standard, they're not just going to try to stick with the dependable low, low floor player. Yep. No, I agree.
I don't think if Bernard struggles, Dodson will be an answer. I do think it will be Kersey who led the Texans, I think, as you mentioned in tackles last season, I think an inspired pickup. Sad that he's not going to fit into Miko Ryan's scheme over there, but hopefully it'll be our game. Hopefully we don't need to call him up.
Hopefully Bernard is able to grow into the role, but I do feel better with a guy like Kersey waiting in the wings, who you know, again, is going to be one of those floor razors for the squad. And a position that is key for this Buffalo Bill's defense with all the nickel that they choose to play. So yeah, I think it's good. And I think that might, that might wrap it up for us on the defensive side of the ball.
The defensive line, we kind of talked about what we're expecting and it all sort of lined up last week when we were recording the pod.
So on the offensive line, again, I think we talked about some of these, but Ryan Bandemarck and Alec Anderson make it over Quessnberry and, ah, geez, Mike Butger, which is another dirt, that we each another representation of the coaching staff and Brandon being seeming to have learned a lesson of protecting themselves from falling into what's the whole comfortable, you know, player and instead trying some younger guys with upside also evidence of the fact
that step that Sean McDermott announced of Cyrus Torrance getting the start over Ryan Bates at right guard, which I'm really excited about. Really nervous because his first matchups going to be against Quinn and Williams brutal. Brutal because you have to prove it right away as a rock. So, you know, and play Quinn and Williams kind of all over the middle of the line. So he's definitely going to see some reps against him. And I think it's it's serious.
I think Conor McGovern like welcome to the bills. Here's one of the preeminent interior pod structures in the entire league. Seriously, herds are going to have their work cut out of them open them. But I am excited. I think that like if Cyrus Torrance proves what he kind of hinted at in his preseason reps, you know, Brandon being may have actually found a starting caliber offensive alignment in the first three rounds of the draft, which is almost unheard of to this point. It does.
I know there's like weird energy around bills fandom right now because the bills have been the favorite for so long. They've been competitive for so long. And now it feels like there's been a retraction of the optimism around this team a little bit. But when you actually dig into the details, there is reason for optimism. There are some trends that feel like they're changing.
But when you bet on younger players, as it looks like the bills are trying to do, it comes with a lot more volatility and performance. And I think this season, something that we haven't had to experience with this team over the past three or four years is going to be the the ups and the downs. I mean, the bills didn't lose a single game, I think last year by more than a field goal. There could be some games because of some of the some of the youth at key positions on this roster.
There could be some games that the bills look less competitive in than others. And it's not a testament to the depth of the roster or the caliber of the players. It's just this is what happens when you are letting young players take their lumps and learn from their reps. So there could be a lot more volatility and overall performance this year from this roster, I think, even as deep as it is.
Well, I think there's also the piece of that, which is that, you know, some of the criticism is consistent. They were very consistent unit week over week. And so with that, you know, of course, they they lost three games by combined eight points. So they did not get blown out ever. And they may because we're going to see Sean Matheram, probably dialing up exotic blitzes and possibly having more toxic differential plays hit against them.
If somebody could get a quick, you know, the quick hot route against the blitzbeater. And we can see that happen. That's that may happen. There might be some freeze or run stunt or something like that. And we'll have to deal with it. But I think that I'm I'm excited to try something different, try something new. And that also goes for, you know, I kind of my last known.
And the roster is the fact that they kind of they kept Justin shorter and they kept Dalton or they will likely have Dalton, Cain and 12 personnel as way more of a presence in this offense. I think there's going to be a substantial plan for Dalton compete. And they played 20% of their snaps in the preseason and 12 personnel. So clearly it's something the offense was working on, even if they weren't showing actual plays and everything was vanilla. They use that formation quite a lot. They did.
And it was heartening to see them use it so frequently on early downs as well. So they use a 20% clip on overall and some of their personnel packages. But on early downs, that clip went up to as high as 35% in the first half of some games. And they ran out of that personnel package close to 67% of the time. Now I don't think the bills intend to run more than half the time out of 12 personnel. They want to put it out there and then do some fun things in the past game.
But it's it was really nice to see them test out the concept of just how multiple they can be with that look in both a run and pass game. There was a lot made about so many of the Bill starters playing so many reps compared to some of the other AFC East teams like Tyree Kill and Jaylen Waddle barely saw the field. And the Miami Dolphins basically did what they did last year in the preseason of same stuff, same groupings didn't really test out anything new.
They're just going to put guys out there and they're going to try to run past you. That's basically their strategy. But the bills that felt like we're legitimately working on things so that they could build a really good foundation and get off to a better start at the start of the season.
And their groupings and 12 personnel and the usage of 12 personnel and the things they tested, I think we're case and point around that the bills really used more than I can remember this season is the preseason as a lab for kind of figuring out what it is that they want to do with this team. And I'm excited to see what they roll out. I don't think we're going to see a lot of it work to great efficacy against defense as high quality as the Jets.
But I'm excited to see the bills again, acknowledging what their shortcomings have been from a personnel and scheming perspective and working to correct some of those things in a really, really significant way. Yeah, same. So I mean, I think we can probably get into it. I don't have any other notes on the roster as it all shook out. Oh, I think we recorded when they had already signed a semilay to the tackle. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, let's move on. Let's start with the Jets game preview.
Dan, if you had to answer this question, how do the bills win on offense? You started talking a little bit with how talented the Jets defense is, but like if you had to draw up design or if you look back on a bill's win, what do you think happened and how would it have to go? If the bills win, then that means Josh Allen was sacked less than three times. James Cook had 20 touches for 100 total yards and Dalton Kincaid had at least one red zone touchdown.
So those are things to me that would signal a good bills offensive effort. I've left stuff on digs out of it, not because I don't think digs can play well against the Jets. But I think the way the Jets scheme generally is they want to drop a bunch of guys into zone. They want to drop seven into zone. They want to rush for and they don't want to blitz. And the key turning point in that week nine game, I went back because I'm a sadist. I went back and I watched both Jets games in the all 22.
And the first half of that week nine game, the Jets were not playing zone at a very high clip. So the Jets, if for context, one of the most zone heavy schemes last season, they run zone at about 67% of the time, which is like seventh highest in the league last year. And the QBR that they allowed out of zone coverage was the third, like third worst for opposing offenses. So third best defensively. So this is a team that was very effective in zone.
But through week nine, we saw teams trying to get really cute with Allen and teams were mixing up zone with a lot of man, a lot of man blitz packages. It was notable that Kansas City did it a couple of weeks before. And we had said on the pod on multiple occasions, yeah, you can blitz Josh, but he's eventually going to figure that out. He's eventually going to find where the weak spot is. And he did it. Weeks one through eight. The Jets came out with a very similar scheme.
I mean, the very first touchdown best to digs. Sauce Gardner was in man on digs, fell on the route, digs goes 42 yards to the house for the touchdown. That would be the only touchdown that Josh Allen would throw for that game. So on the very first play of the game, he would then follow it up in the second half with two interceptions, one again to the aforementioned sauce Gardner. The difference being is that the Jets were like, F it, we're just going to we're just going to flood.
We're just going to flood the passing lanes with as many Jets jerseys as we can. And we're going to trust that our four guys are better than their five guys up front. And they were 100 percent correct. I believe and they also this is also a team that didn't believe the bills could run against them either in game one and week nine. The bills saw light saw light boxes on 59 percent of the steps. And then in the second game, it went all the way up to 65 percent.
So the Jets were pretty honed in for six quarters of football and what they thought Dorsey Allen and that bill's offense were doing. And it showed. It really did show Allen's QBR against the Jets in that week nine game when he played zone was eight point four. Now it went up to 81 in the second game because Josh played a relatively mistake free game and did some stuff with his legs.
But this Jets team is going to play zone as much as they can against the bills, which means they are rushing for being in that zone concept. There's a couple of different ways they can go about beating it. One of them is to exploit the middle of the field with some sort of flood concept, which is why you've got a guy like Dalton Kincaid who can be a middle of the field zone beater for them. So that's why I say Kincaid is going to factor in key.
I don't think the Jets are going to play 65 percent light boxes against this bill's offense, but I think it's going to look more like week nine. It's going to be in the 55 to 59 percent range, which means James Cook needs to establish himself against those light boxes and make that Jets defense think twice about just dropping everybody back.
This has to be a chunk yardage game for James Cook and both the run game and in the short yardage passing game where the passing game is working as an extension of the run game here. So and then you've got to protect Josh, which they weren't able to do an either game. So if they can protect Josh and Cook and Kincaid have good games, everything else to me is gravy, and that to me is the recipe for success and the keys to what the bills need to do on offense.
That was incredibly succinct and perfectly on point. I can't add any notes other than I do think that we should see the bills being able to run over the right side to Torrance and oh my gosh, why can't I think around? They look much better in the run game though.
I want to see them out on the move, kind of road gritting and see what James Cook can do off of their hips because I think that that's an advantage that the bills can have because that middle of the Jets defense in the linebacker core is not, they're not super efficient run stoppers and they're not super great in coverage. So like you said, the middle of the field, I think is a little bit of a folder ability.
And I think that running off that right edge might give a young player in Torrance and then also young and hopefully now healthy player and spend around the opportunity to kind of do what they're best at, which gets the nerves out a little bit and gets them comfortable. And so I'd like to see the bills come out and really test that defense, which the Jets had an amazing rushing defense last year. Or they had amazing overall defense, but they didn't have an amazing rush defense.
They had an excellent, you know, top five passing, but they, if they did give up space, it was like you said, they drop along the coverage. If they, if they gave a yardage in a game, it was usually to the run. So hopefully the bills can establish that early, get the play action pass going. I think Josh had the least amount of play action passes of the top 10 passers in the league last year because it just was never a threat.
No defense was getting afraid of, you know, Devin Singletary breaking off a big one on them, even though I very much liked motor, you know, it wasn't as much of a risk to a defensive court here. All right. So I'm going to hit a note on what I think the bills defense needs to do.
I think that the additions of Malcolm or Leonard Floyd and the growth of Greg Russo, along with, you know, hopefully AJ Abanesa also comes back and has a strong year and grows, takes another step and then Ed Oliver playing kind of on fire with his new contract. Some players shut it down. Koff Koff, Marcel Darius and other players get motivated when they sign that big contract.
So I'm hoping to see Ed Oliver take a step here and he think he feels or sounds like he feels like he has to prove something and that really like him to do that. And so I see the bills front for being a strength, especially against that super unreliable jets, you know, offensive line there. They have some aging veterans. They've got Mackay Bekton, who hasn't played a home game in front of the Jets crowd in his career because he's been hurt for the entire seasons, two of his, both of his seasons.
And so it's going to be kind of juiced up in that environment. And I think that there's some vulnerability there, even though he is like literally a barn of a human, like it's impossible to run around him. But we'll see, we'll see how they can do, you know, off the edge against Mackay Bekton. I don't think their interior, their offensive line is, is very good. And if it is good, it's not very consistent.
And so I'm excited to see what the bill's defensive line can do against the, that, that front as well as, you know, it's the cook bowl, Dalvin Cook is again rushing for the Jets and his brother James for the bills. So that's going to be interesting to me. And I think that we're going to see the first pictures of Sean McDermott's defense and how he likes it to be an attacking style.
Again, might, you know, be boom or bust in some regards because it's going to be aggressive, but I'm excited to see how it goes. Yeah, me, me too. I, it's tough, it's tough to game out what the bill's defense needs to do very specifically against the Jets offense. Cause we don't know. We don't, we don't know what it's going to look like. I don't think the Jets want Rogers at 39 years old to chuck it up 40 times a game.
But I could be, I mean, I was wrong about that when the bills played Indianapolis a couple of years ago in the playoffs. And I'm like, Indianapolis will have failed miserably and lost by three touchdowns. The Phillip Rivers has to throw it more than 30 times. And he threw it 45 times and it was a close game. Right. So, so I could be wrong about that. I think Rogers wants to chuck it up because he thinks he can still do that and he's playing with a little chip on his shoulder.
But I think the Jets are going to want to control the point of attack just a little bit more. And kind of like the Buffalo Bills, there are segments of that offensive line. They have their own Conor McGovern and they've got Elijah Vera Tucker that are better in, in the run game than they are in the past game at this point in their development.
When you've got Brie Saul coming back, he'll likely be on something of a pitch count in Delvin Cook, who is new to the offense and just learning some of the schemes that Hackett wants to run. I think that there is an, an opportunity here that the bills can exploit as the Jets are figuring out who they want to be on that side of the ball. I think the Jets are going to want to run. And I think that will pose a legitimate threat to this bill's defense.
But I don't think they're going to have it gamed out enough with the newness of Cook to the roster and the uncertainty about how much they can push Hall at this point in the season. I don't think they're going to be able to exploit it to their fullest. This feels like a really good point in the season for this bill's defense and McDermott and the newness of that scheme to catch a team like the Jets because they themselves on the offensive side of the ball are also trying to figure something out.
And Rogers is a notoriously slow starter to each season. And I think that's something that him and the Jets have both acknowledged by the fact that Rogers has actually played some reps this preseason, which he hasn't done, didn't do in Green Bay for the last 10 years.
So I, I think between Rogers history to start slow, the newness of the offense, and I think the inherent conflict of what the Jets are going to want to ultimately do on offense and what this team will look like at the end of the season, but their lack of ability to do it now because of where the roster and where some of the personnel is at, I think is an opportunity for the bill's defense to really shine in this game. It's got to shine at the point of attack. It's got to shine on that line.
But also this feels like a good game for new pieces like Christian Benford and Terrell Bernard to really earn some of those reps. I also think this is a good game to see Trey White against Garrett Wilson in what everyone's describing as Trey White's comeback tour where he, he looks like Trey. He's moving like Trey. He has a confidence, the swagger.
Yeah. But the type of, you know, fun loving, you know, nature about him that they maybe didn't see when he first came back from his injury because he wasn't there mentally yet. So I'm excited to see Trey White rising to the challenge of offensive rookie of the year. Garrett Wilson, you know, early on, if they do, if they play matchup, which they may do because I think after Garrett Wilson, it's a much more suspect group of pass catchers.
And I think that they probably would trust Trey White following Garrett Wilson and may not trust Benford, but they've never played that way. We'll see. It's McDermott's year. So we'll see how he's different. Leslie Frazier never followed the team's best wide receiver in matchup coverage because he, the defense was a defense and they were in their zones and they did their one 11th and so on and so forth. So it'll be interesting.
It will be and Garrett Wilson played really well as a rookie against the bills and against this bill's defense. It'll be interesting to see what it looks like with a healthy secondary, albeit an aging one, with White getting to the latter stages of his career. We've talked about the age of Poyer and Hyde. Hyde dealing with it also seems like a minor back issue at this point too.
Not great before you've played one game, but I think if there is a, I think ultimately if there is a game for Sean McDermott and to roll out a new scheme and really kind of kick the tires on some things, it would be this game and that's no disrespect to the Jets offense. We just, we just, I don't think they know what it's going to look like when they roll it out. Right. Like I think it's going to be much better later on down the season.
But I just, I, this doesn't feel like a team that is built to come out and be gangbusters in week one. I'm actually anticipating this can be a low scoring game. I think the, the over and around this game is 46. I'm taking the under by a lot. The Jets did not play a single game last season where the combined score was more than 36 points. And that had everything to do with their defense and their offense. Right. Right. Well, and I think, yeah, you make a good point.
And it's also the kind of thing where it feels like maybe the lines are moving because they see Josh Allen versus, you know, uh, Aaron Rogers, but they don't see the number three overall defense versus like the number five overall defense, right? Like that's, that's the part that, that maybe betters are ignoring that when they start picking those, you know, picking their way up that line is it's, it's going to be probably a slug vest.
It's probably, we're probably going to see some icky drives, you know, those drives where it's like, oh, they made it four yards on six plays and everything. Yeah. There was an LB and like lots of three and out. Lots of punt. Like it's just, it's good. And it's, it's gonna. Get ready. Yeah. I know. Seriously. You're not going to have to pull up a newspaper to prove you're in the stadium that day. That's right. Warm up the quads, my friend. You're going to need them. But yeah.
And again, no disrespect to either of these offenses. Just both of these defenses seem much farther along and where they need to be. And again, the Jets that they know how to play this bill's offense, they really do. So, but I, if you were to ask me right now, which offense is better suited to take on the opposing team's defense, it would be the bills. I think it would be the bills right now. Um, but yeah, that's going to be interesting.
Josh didn't play great against that Jets defense last year. He did not. Right. In two meetings and either meeting. Yep. Do you, um, do you got a, you said you're, you're taking the under, do you have a score prediction? Yeah. So I do have the bills winning this. I think the, the line on this game has been really steady at two and a half. It opened at one and a half favoring the bills and it's sitting at two and a half in favor of the bills right now.
I think this game is like a 17, 14 kind of game for the bills. I think they ultimately end up covering and, and when a close ugly one, but I, I don't think if people are expecting to see the, one of the best offenses in the league and the bills, which they have been over the past few years against an up and coming revamped offense with some great young skill players and the Jets playing at their best on Monday night, I just don't think we're going to get that.
So I think this feels like a 17, 14 type of game with the bills taking it. Okay. Yeah. No, that's, that's, that's a good one. I'm, I'm looking at a 24, 21 bills win. So I think they're going to go over because they said the, the over under is 42. For 46, I think on this game. Okay. So I also hit the under. Yep. Um, 24, 21, um, just under.
Cause I do think, and here's where I think the difference is, um, early in the season, you might see some like, you know, rust, some rust and, and, and accuracy on offense, but you also see like a lot of those week one games, there's like all kinds of random stuff that happens. Yeah. Like special teams wins and like pick sixes against, you know, that the homes, like that stuff's like not common. And I think we might see some uncommon stuff.
So maybe a defensive score here or there, or a special team score or something to drive those, those points up a little bit. And then I do think that the bill's advantage on offense is that they, they now have, um, you know, several meetings against Robert Sala. And I think that they're, they're three and they're three out of four strong McDermott's, you know, at one, three out of the four games he's had against Sala and that defense.
And even though Josh Allen has not played like we normally see Josh Allen, that deep pads is, is very good, they also, you know, have the advantage of not, you know, reaching the jets at a point in time in the middle of their season and potentially looking past them because the jets are, you know, flipping between, um, you know, completely ineffective quarterbacks.
I, I believe that bills are taking this game much more seriously than maybe either the matchup they had last year, even though it's in the division and will come kind of ready to fire because I remember watching that week one game last year against the Rams who had just won a Super Bowl and the bills just like absolutely were on the war path and they were on the road then too. So I like to see that. I agree with what you said.
Aaron Rogers tends to have really bad week one games and I can only imagine that's going to continue even though Nathan Hackett, Nathan, you'll hack it is the OEC here and was his OEC during his MVP campaigns, you know, two of the last four years in green Bay. I, I just, you know, I think he's going to have a rocky start here too because, you know, he's old, he's a year older than those campaigns. He is in a brand new team. Even though he had, he brought his plays with them.
He has new people to play with and, uh, and so I can see that combined with him being a little bit more statuesque than he may, may was, or maybe was when he was younger years that bills have a rejuvenated pass rush will definitely help out. Yeah. No, I agree. I agree with the, the mentality too that, that I see the bills walking into this game with, even though I think it's going to be an, an ugly physical game, uh, to kick things off on Monday night. And again, I could be wrong.
I'm wrong about most of this stuff. I agree with you. The mentality of the bills are bringing in. They feel very locked in at this point. Like Diggs was, Diggs was almost, was almost like beside himself when someone said, well, how do you explain your guy's struggles against this Jets defense, um, over, uh, last season. And Diggs was like, I had 93 yards against him in the first game. I don't know what you're talking about. Right.
Now he didn't mention he had 34 yards against him in the second game, right? But, but, but there is a different kind of confidence and, and ferocity that the bills seem to be bringing into this game with them. They're definitely not scared about playing on the road. You're right. It's going to be really interesting to see what they do with some of their signature pieces on offense. Cause again, you bring up a good point.
I think the bills are, I think the bills offense in particular, not that they're comfortable with a solid defense necessarily, but they've seen it a lot, right? They've had some success with it in the past. I think last year in part, they got too cute on offense. We had said on this pod that we just want to see Diggs line up against sauce and do his thing. Let, let pro play pro strength, play strength. And let's just see who wins. And Dorsey did the opposite of that.
Diggs lined up in the slot against the Jets. 48% of his routes against the Jets in two games. Like they were trying to hide Diggs from Gardner, right? Which ended up putting Gardner on Davis completely shutting off the boundary. It just made the Jets job easier to hide Diggs in the slot that the way they did. You can bracket easier in the slot. You don't just have, you don't. You only have the sideline to use. Exactly. Exactly. So it really limited what Diggs could do.
I think let Diggs be Diggs, let him line up on both areas of the outside, let him play read, let him play Gardner and let, let's see what he can do against a couple of, a couple of elite cover corners. Yeah. I think that that's good. Do you have predictions? I mean, outside of the score, I've got James Cook with, I got the over under it, 19 and a half touches. I think it's going to be over.
I think they're going to want, they're going to want to find a way to get Cook involved in the traditional run game, but also in the short yardage passing game as well. I think the bills are going to focus very, very strongly on trying to get Cook involved. I mean, last year he, he averaged 5.7 yards per carry. So he was pretty good out of the traditional run game. It's not that the bills don't hand it off traditionally in early downs at any kind of high clip.
So, and again, I think we mistake this balance conversation for 50-50. We're not saying you should take the ball out of Josh's hands on 50% of the snaps. What we're saying is you need to make the D, you need to run the ball enough effectively to make the defense think twice about pinning his ears, but their ears back and going after your franchise QB.
And the Jets have added some real speed to that defensive line, which could prove a problem in past protection for both Spencer Brown, who has struggled with speed rushers and Osiris Torrance who just hasn't seen NFL level speed rushers yet at this stage of his career. So you're going to see Will McDonald. You're going to see Quentin Williams.
He's said they're going to come ears, pin back a great way to negate guys that just want to run at the QB is to hand it off to a running back and let them run right past them. Is there going by? So I think Cook needs to be involved in both the traditional run game for balance in the way we mean balance. And then also in the short yardage game. So I've got Cook at over 19 and a half touches for this game. Good. That's a good one.
And I think you mentioned one, but I'm going to steal it of Dalton Kade, one red zone touchdown. It's an area the bills need to improve. And they were such a mess in the red zone last year. And they were a bit of a mess the year before their last year under day ball two, but you could see them figuring stuff out as the season went on. And we were like, there'll be a top 10 red zone offense again by the end of the season. And they were, they finished. They were, they were number nine, right?
Last season, you did not see them going to the lab in the same way to figure that out. And it felt like each week, especially after Allen's injuries, they had fewer and fewer solutions for the red zone. This year, they've really upgraded the personnel to where I think they should be more effective. I mean, this should, this should be easily a top seven red zone offense. So can Kate get it?
Can Kate getting a red zone touchdown would show me that they figure some stuff out the last 20 of the field? Yeah, I don't have any other predictions, you know, in that vein, but I will say to all bills mafia, if you're listening to this, and the bills offensive line looks bad on Monday night, just rest easy. This is probably the top, top three unit. They're going to see this entire year. This might be the best unit. Yeah, this might be the best, best single unit.
It's got eight pass rushers that are all NFL starter caliber caliber in a rotation, much like the bills defensive line that we've, you know, always very much or we've liked very much for a very long time. This Jets defensive line is going to know how to bring the heat. And we're going to see an offensive line with two brand new pieces. It's simulating in Osiris Torrance and Conor McGovern. And so it might be bumpy. It might be bumpy. Buckle up. I promise you the offensive.
I trust this offensive line to get it together, even if they have some, you know, some misses on Monday night. That's very heartfelt. I appreciate it. Normally you are lighting this offensive line on fire. So that's very nice of you to hear. Well, because I, because I have so much, so much goddamn hope that it's fixed. Like, I can't, because if I despair already, then there is no hope for the rest of the season.
So I have to believe that they did what they needed to do by investing pre a premium pick and premium funds in pre agency to fix the interior of that offensive line. And if they did not, man, I'm, I'm, I'm done. I'm done. I'm not done. I know I'm always going to be a fan, but I'm really disappointed. I was not going to mad. I'm just, I know, I know. I think, I think it's going to be ugly if it makes you feel any better. I don't know that just offensive line is going to play any better.
And if they do, that is more of a testament to the, how poor this bill's pass rush is that it is the offensive line caliber of the New Jersey. It goes in the opposite direction on the bills, you know, defensive line. The ball is, if they look, the offensive line to the jets looks awesome. It's probably just the builder tarot. It's just an us thing. Right. That's just an us thing. So yeah. And we can't wait to get on Miller back in weeks. Oh my God. So we'll see. But all right.
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