Alright, welcome back to the Buffalo Bread Podcast. We are entering our week 14 slate of games. The Buffalo Bills are leaving their buy to head down to Kansas City and face the hated chiefs, which is kind of an annual fixture at this point, heading down to KC. When are those fellas going to come up here is a great question we all ask every year, and every year the NFL answers, never. You're going to play at their house every year.
As we all know, Sean McDermott is 6-0 coming off of a buy in his time in Buffalo, and all six of those games have been played at home. So we're going to test fate this weekend and see whether that trend continues and the Bills can continue on a start-hot run to the end, or if Bills Mafia collectively start looking at the draft this weekend. What do you think, Dan? JJ, all I know is I'm ready to be heard again. I can't wait. I've seen so many people posting memes to that effect.
Like, well, the buy week is over. I'm ready to be heard. Exactly. Exactly. There feels like a positive energy for the most part coming into this game from some of our key contributors on offense and defense. But man, it's also been a wacky, wacky buy week for the Bills. A lot of some disturbing stuff in the vein of Von Miller, which I'm sure we're going to get into. Of course, the Tyler Dunn, Sean McDermott, expose for go long as well.
It's made it a little bit hard, I know, for me to focus on the football aspects of the game coming up because there's so much swirling around here, too. But then also you've got Deon Dawkins chirping about how its killer be killed and the team feels locked in. Jordan Phillips doing his usual trash talk around the league during the buy week.
So it's this weird mix of kind of surreal news coming from Bills camp, but also the players that are on deck seem to be handling it really well and seem to be focused with the task at hand, which is beating Kansas City. So we're not going to have an answer as to how much the offfield stuff with the Bills is a distraction until probably we get the result of the Kansas City game. So JJ, it feels a little bit difficult to kind of gauge where I should be at right now.
Any other team in the league that had all the stuff swirling around it, I think I would be worried. But there is also an unusual sense of calm and confidence coming from the leadership, the player leadership of this club. So I don't know, I don't quite know how to feel, but I know I'm looking forward to seeing what the Bills do on Sunday for sure. I think that's a fair place to be.
I think that's a lot of where Bills Mafia is, is that we saw two consecutive games where the offense looked like it's supposed to look against the Jets and then the Eagles and both of those being exceptional defenses. And so seeing an offensive performance against those defenses, you know, it was great. Unfortunately, the defense led by Sean McDermott could not get it done against the Eagles.
And so, you know, we're really in a position where the big question comes, can the Bills do what they need to do to get a lead and hold it against these chiefs who have been kind of vulnerable in the second half of games. And the whole landscape is really wonky right now. The NFC is weird because there's like four front runners and everyone else is like two or three games behind.
And so this weekend, likely in the NFC side of the slate, things are going to be locked, you know, some teams are going to clinch their playoff position, if not their position, the playoffs as a thing. And then in the NFC, I feel like it's going to cut maybe the top couple of seeds will get locked in prior to week 18, but I feel like four through seven will probably still be in play all the way through the end.
And you know, we saw the Patriots, the two and, what, two and 10, two and nine Patriots beat the Steelers on. Two and 10 Patriots. Two and 10. Yeah, that's right. Helping them out, you know, after the bills help them out by giving them one win, which really you know, I presume I'm just going to play the conspiracy theory that the bills didn't want them to have a top five pick.
And so they tried to help them with a win early in the season, not realizing that the season would fall apart and that it would become really important that they didn't lose that game. You know, they're playing for 40. Yes, exactly. Mental gymnastics man. And some 40 just they're trying to, you know, cripple draft down the line, you know, because they could get the leeway to give up games, which I didn't, I'm just lying.
I'm just trying to justify I'm pleading with myself for a reason to make it make sense that the Steelers were a worse team than the Patriots on the field last night. However, the bills were a much better team on the field and somehow got worked by the now benched McCorkle Jones led Patriots. I don't know. Yeah, the NFL is just we got to accept that it is a week to week league and the things that you see in one week don't necessarily translate or carry over for a variety of different reasons.
That's just the way the NFL is built this year. Yeah, absolutely. And so, so here we are. We have got a number of teams that we want to lose every game. We want dolphins to lose every game. We want the Steelers to lose every, but the Colts to lose every game. We want the Browns to lose every game. And the Texans Broncos, Bengals and Chargers also to lose all their games. We have the benefit of playing against the dolphins and Chargers as we close out the season for the Buffalo Bills.
But everybody else, namely the Broncos and Bengals, we either have played and they've beaten us or we don't play. And so it's really not a situation where the Bills have totally their, you know, their destiny in their hands. They really have to get some help down the stretch in addition to winning out in order to have a good playoff position.
Yep, there is no statistical projection, be it from the New York Times or ESPN or 538 or any of these other the playoff, playoff number crunching predictors that have the Buffalo Bills in any scenario being a hundred percent lock, even if they win out and go 11 and 6 this season, JJ, their highest potential to make the playoffs only hits 97 percent.
So there is a pretty good though, pretty good, but there is still a scenario where the Bills could win 11 games and totally miss the playoffs as well. So the Bills have given up because of their poor play in these previous 16 weeks or six weeks, 12 weeks, wherever they are, because of because of their inconsistent play, they've really put themselves in a position where they don't totally control their own destiny.
11 wins gives them the best shot, but you go from 97 percent according to New York Times playoff predictor at 10 wins, you are a coin flip if you're the Buffalo Bills. And at nine wins, unless some things really bend your way with a lot of these other teams you mentioned losing at nine wins, you are in the the low 40s is an opportunity. So the Bills are in win out territory if they want the most control over their circumstances. For sure.
And the wild thing about it is like the AFC East is still in their grasp if they win out. You would think that they were completely cooked in the water, but they're in it. And this weekend, you know, just games to watch Bills Mafia. We already saw the Patriots get it done against the Steelers, which we wanted to happen.
We want the Bengals to beat the Colts because the ideal is that all these teams that are like seven and four and a game ahead of the Bills and win the win column, we want to bring them all into the messy middle, you know, mud puddle with everybody else. Everybody wants to bring everybody close to 500 because that's where the Bills are so that when the Bills presumably, you know, ascend out of that depth and get plus, you know, above 500 that they're kind of riding high into into playoff ranking.
We want the Jags to beat the Bronze because we want the Jags kind of run away with that division. We would like the Chargers to beat the Broncos again Broncos have a head to head on the Bills. And then finally Monday Night Football, the Titans to beat the Dolphins. This all means almost nothing if the Buffalo Bills cannot get it done against the Chiefs this weekend. And so that's kind of where we are.
We will break down the Chiefs match up in just a minute, but I have two questions for you, Dan, and I'll start. The first one is who are some players down the stretch for the remainder of the season that you need to see something special from that we haven't yet seen to this point for whatever reason? I think I think you and I both agree, we're going to take Josh Allen off the table here because he's an obvious one. Yeah. So I think we're talking more supporting cast.
Yes. Yeah. And here's where I'm going to go with this. There needs to be the emergence of a true number two pass catcher to Stefan Diggs, be a Dalton Kincaid or Gabe Davis. So I'm going to go Gabe Davis. He is in the last year of his contract. He is poised to be a free agent. He has put up inconsistent ball to say the least this season. And they really need him to kind of find his groove at the tail end of the season if they're going to make a run.
The Buffalo Bills JJ have struggled when they cannot work in multiple pass catchers behind Stefan Diggs. Dalton Kincaid has done a great job here in the latter parts of the season with his effectiveness in the offense, both under Dorsey, towards the tail end of Dorsey's tenure and under Brady as he has gotten his tenure off to a great start. But Kincaid is a tight end, granted plays more like a wide receiver.
But the Bills, if they're really going to hit those explosive plays and they're going to take the roof off defense as they need a more stable, solid number two option. Clueless Shakir has been great, but he brings a lot of value in the slot too. So that leaves us with Gabe Davis figuring things out on the outside opposite of Stefan Diggs.
Listen, if there were a time for Gabe Davis to step up, it would be now he has had his best moments as a Buffalo Bills in clutch positions in clutch performances. And every game down the stretch is going to require that. So for me JJ, I got to see something from Gabe Davis. I think it transforms this offense when there is a reliable outside threat opposite of Stefan Diggs on the other for the Buffalo Bills.
And I would love it to be Clueless Shakir, but he to me means too much with his crisp route running and perfectly time releases. He means too much to keep the middle of the field to me alive for Allen. I want to see I want to see Davis step up. If not now when like do I think Gabe Davis no matter how well he plays will be re-signed by the Bills at the end of the season? No. So what I'm looking for is a pretty epic swan song from him to close out his Bill's career before he moves on.
Well, and it makes sense to him, of course, as a player that, you know, he should turn in on this as a contract here. If he, I mean, the reality is if he doesn't make some hay in these last four games, five games, five games, five games, five games. Yeah. I got it. That makes me feel a little bit better. I was worried it was only four.
So in these last five games, if if Gabe Davis doesn't make some hay, he's in the he's in the world where he may be forced to take one of those Jordan Poyer insanely low deals where the bills are just like, those are your value. Good luck. See the market, you know, and then he has to sign for a wait last speak with the because I think there is a 10 to $14 million per year contract out there for Gabe Davis. If he can reliably get 60 to 80 yards per per game and one or two tuddies, right?
Like that closing out the year with four touchdowns and averaging about 70 or 80 yards per game will get the contract I'm talking about, which is like three years, 14 million per year to be a teams one B probably. Yep. Absolutely. JJ, another player, and I'm going to kind of cheat with this one.
I'm going to go to a and to be the Buffalo bills per DV away are 32 out of 32 teams when it comes to defending an opposing teams wide receiver to there are the worst teams statistically in the league when it comes to defending an opposing teams second option at wide receiver that is a direct indictment of Christian Benford when he was playing opposite Trey White and Dane Jackson who we have talked about his limitations at length on this podcast heading
down the stretch the Buffalo and if the bills somehow miraculously make the playoffs, they're only going to face good teams with multiple pass catching options, including the likes of teams like Miami that have two very solid pass catchers on the outside.
If the Buffalo bills are going to make a run, they need to figure out something between Benford and Jackson now that result Douglas to me feels pretty squarely like our CB one and they need to figure out how to write the ship when it comes to defending the second option the second outlet option for a lot of opposing teams. So I need one or two or ideally both of those guys to step up. Sure. I think that's a good one.
I think that that kind of lends itself to one of my what I need to see better and more from picks for the rest of the season is I need Jordan Poyer and Mike a hide to both prove to prove to the bills, prove to the front office to their teammates to the locker room to you know us fans watching that it's worth keeping them on the books with kind of you know, super high but relatively inflated veteran contracts for what has been to this point.
Occasionally, you know, occasionally good play, but rarely great play. I think that we've had we've seen flashes of Poyer down in the box doing the kind of big nickel, some backer type roles. And we've seen hide kind of roaming the deep middle of the field as he does. But he has looked a step slow and out of position too many times. Jordan Poyer has missed some tackles and missed some run fits and missed some opportunities with you know playing the ball that he usually would have come down with.
And so really what I'm seeing from from Poyer and hide is they're getting older, they're getting slower. And I hope that the two of them can turn it on for the latter half of the year. You know the last quarter of the year to really make a push for this playoffs because I think that what you're saying about you know we need our CB two to step up to shut down that outlet option.
I think that Poyer and hide can can help with that quite a lot, but they need to show better play, we need some splash plays we need them to look a little bit like the, you know, all propo and and Micah hide you know deep middle you know outfielder playing the ball you know over over his shoulder in the playoffs type of type of guy.
So yeah I think we need to see a little bit more from them because I think that that's another component of covering that secondary option that is probably you know it's probably because some of time some of the times that the safety help design in the system is not getting there to help that CB when they know they have help you know. We know from the watching the Sean McDermott defense oftentimes it's a combination of coverages it's I'm a CB playing inside leverage.
I'm using the boundary as a defender and then I'm letting the person go over top of because I know that's where I have help.
That requires the safety to identify that route and squeeze down and how many times have we seen Poyer flying into the frame a step or two too late to break up a pass and sure they tackle the guy but he's already got the 17 yards for the first down at a long and late third down that they really needed to stop on so that kind of leads to one of my recommendations for a player we need to see more from.
I'm actually going to flip back over because you had Gabe Davis I'm going to flip back over to the offensive side of the ball and I think we need to see James Cook firmly take a hold of the offensive backfield. I think that you know we've seen Latavius Murray eat into his touches a little bit we've seen Ty Johnson eat into his touches a little bit.
I'd like to see James Cook hopefully get over some of the mistakes he's made in the last couple games mostly because they result in what I consider idiotic benching for portions of time because it just seems an inequitable response to one player making a mistake when that doesn't apply to the rest of the roster.
But that aside I think that you know James Cook has all the skills needed to really step forward and kind of own this backfield and declare himself RB one and the bills have been averaging the second most gate rush yards per game over the last three weeks so I'm really hoping that that they are able to kind of continue that trend and develop the the run game because as we know you know as much as it might be boring and as much as people
may like oh that's you know Sean McDermott's conservative approach is making sure you establish the run. We know what the run game can do in the playoffs we watched it happen to us when Cincinnati ran all over the bills in January last year we've seen it happen you know in multiple meetings with different teams that established the run on us and keep Josh Allen off the field and all of a sudden the you know the point squaring ability is neutered for the bills.
Yeah I like your pick of James Cook and I flirted with picking that for him for one of mine too.
The only reason I didn't is because right now his the roof on his performance the ceiling on his performance feels stunted not by his own control but as you mentioned by the control of the coaches so unless there is something that is going to change with the way they manage that running back rotation and I'm hearing rumblings from a lot of Buffalo Buffalo reporters that you know Mick D is thinking about calling up playoff Lenny for this game
to to further eat into the the snaps of the more dynamic James Cook but I think I think for it I think for that to happen to me that doesn't feel player controlled coaches need to on the staff need to stop our smarting themselves and just roll with a clearly more dynamic and potent player which is cook but I agree with you if he figured if he if we can figure it out for cook and he can become that dynamo in the past catching game in the
run game that we know he can be the outlook of this offense and the ceiling and potential of this offense improves exponentially for the stretch run here. Yep. All right. Do you want to address I know we do you have any other players first before we move on to our next segment. Yeah. Somebody other than Leonard Floyd on the defensive
line to sack the quarter. Anybody. Yeah. Can I get one? Anybody. And that's that's no shade at Rousseau because Rousseau's had a really good year and he is so he is so dynamic and stopping the run game as well. It's really something to behold. And we know at Oliver's
been an absolute game wrecker. I mean a lot of his run stop win rates and past Russia win win rates despite the fact that he is still he is seeing more double teams now for obvious reasons that he did when Jones was on the lineup have still remained consistent
since Jones went down. I mean Oliver is having just a hell of a season but we have said this before and it bears repeating when we go to play the Kansas City Chiefs pressure versus sacks pressure on QB's that are not Joe Burrow Patrick Mahomes Lamar Jackson can really affect other QB's. The problem is the down the stretch we're facing only good QB's with the exception of Bailey Zappi. We've got Patrick Mahomes who we know handles pressure really well.
So if you want to you want to beat him you got to put him on the ground. Deck Prescott having a great year under pressure this season. You've got Justin Herbert who there are is an open question is he a really good QB or is he just a really fun QB to watch in highlights but he has also shown some promise against pressure to a tongue of the low who will see
at the end of the season. Not great when not great when blitzed not great under pressure but he gets the ball out so quickly a lot of times it negates and it doesn't even matter. So the bills have to prioritize not just pressure they've got to prioritize bringing a lot of these QB's down to really rattle them out of their game plan. Leonard Floyd is doing it at a fantastic pace for the Buffalo Bills but he needs a partner in crime and I don't
think that's going to be Von Miller this season. So it's got to be some combination of Greg Rousseau or AJ Abinazzo to really step up. Well and I agree and I think that that's going
to you know we need to see something from Greg Rousseau. His fifth year option has to be decided on this off season and that's a I think it's a $14 million guarantee for that fifth year and so they have to decide on it in the fourth year for the fifth and so that's that's something that's coming up and then AJ Abinazzo is playing for a contract again he's in a Gabe Davis
type situation where it's his time to show it. We know there's money there for defensive ends and he's putting together the stat package that'll him paid likely and out at the Bills.
I think the Bills will have the opportunity by pulling some levers in the off season to free up some cap space and get one of Leonard Floyd or AJ Abinazzo back and I know that you do not like resigning elders to this defensive line but at this juncture I'd rather have Floyd than Abinazzo for a one or two year deal at most because he still has some juice but you know I think that it's a it's a it's a situation where I agree I think that somebody
else needs to bring some heat and if that is you know at Oliver from inside I think that's an okay answer from two or some other alternatives in that way. So speaking of pass rushers we have the well we have a couple of things so we have a 911 call that resulted in Vaughn Miller being asked to turn himself in being charged and having an arrest warrant issued and then those claims recanted by the caller but the district attorney in Texas is
still determining if there will be criminal charges. I think that's I think that's the summary right? Yes that is correct that is kind of where things stand right now with Vaughn Miller's situation from a league perspective the bills have stated they have no indication that he'll be going on the commissioner's exempt list which means he does still have the ability to play and be active and the bills have said that he will be active this
Sunday against the Kansas City Chiefs. JJ I we have we have not shied away from talking about off the field situations around the league and with this team and I listen there is a lot of I think toxic discourse that happens when situations like this come up and there is a lot of calls for due process and there is a lot of calls for innocent until proven guilty and all of those things and all those things which I absolutely believe are true
but I also do think that as the process plays out it is fair to read a lot of the actions that were reported in the police report and draw some conclusions from that that while we do not have any final answer on what may have happened or what the legal process will bring to bear it is fair to say that football and football reasons for activating Vaughn Miller feel like cold comfort and small in comparison to the gravity of the situation
that he is facing off the field and the questions that may pose to the Buffalo Bills franchise as a result of how the legal process may or may not play out. I am surprised quite frankly that the Bills are not showing more restraint in their actions towards Vaughn Miller right
now. I am not saying they need to cut him I agree the process needs to play out but I am surprised that given the history of the Bills and how they have handled some of these off field situations with their players in the past I am very surprised that there is not there is not more restraint or caution being shown in this particular situation because again if you are to believe even some of what is in the police reports that are have been
available as a result of the story breaking there are some allegations that I think is worth taking a pause and reflecting and asking ourselves is the football field in a prime game against Kansas City really where the Bills franchise needs to position Vaughn Miller right now. There are just some things that are bigger than football and I am surprised that the Bills are handling this with the I don't want to say carelessness but ambivalence that they are.
Yeah, yeah really it is toneless for them to act as if the fact that a decision has been made in a court of law it is toneless for them to act as if that erases this as
an incident that occurred in the world. You know like I think that there is still answers there is still answers to be had certainly legally but I think that the narrative of a person potentially assaulting and choking pregnant woman who is probably less than half of his size and being the aggressor of that situation even if it is just an allegation at this time even if that person for whatever their motives were recanted that claim there
is still apparently audio recordings there is still apparently enough evidence of it because the call was made and the authorities responded that it is not outside the realm of rationality to say hey Vaughn why don't you sit down for this game there is a lot going on you are inactive it is essentially a paid vacation from the team for a little bit while this all you know we sort this all out because I think that I agree with the
people who say you know do process you know this until proven guilty about you know him being immediately cut from the team I think that that would be a bridge too far but I do you know you know when they say that that is the wrong move I do believe that it is just having some distance and you know being able to say and like the other piece of that is Brandon B. Norr Sean McDermott was willing to speak a single word about this with any
of their media availability in any terms other than we've spoken to Vaughn and we're just kind of waiting for the league to make a determined none of them were even able to speak out to say like listen the allegations of this are horrifying right like I think that's appropriate for a coach to say to say like we don't have answers or anything we're waiting for the league the allegations of this are horrifying like the fact that one of our players is accused
of domestic violence is something that nobody in this building stands for I think is that's not you're not saying that this person's cut you're you're just saying like listen this is out there everybody's look knows it everyone's looking at it's pretending you don't know what the allegations are is it's just a bad look in my opinion.
Yeah, no I mean there's no doubt and again it's given the track record of being in McDermott their prioritization of quote unquote character guys being on the team and things like that this feels like a little bit of a departure I'm not gonna lie it feel it and maybe this is naive and this is as I as I now formulate the sense in my head I definitely think it sounds naive it but I think we have put a lot of trust in these guys to not just steward
the product on the field but the culture off the field as well and this really does feel like point of difference and variance from previous instances of how the bills have handled these types of situations it is probably largely motivated by the fact that McDermott feels like he is coaching for his job or at least a there is a a urgency of this team to quote unquote write the ship and get it right and they may look at Vaughn is and his eventual
ability to play healthy is too important a piece to that and again I would say to that that is given the gravity of the real world situation that is happening that feels like a small view a small gaze and a narrow gaze on the true impact of the situation and listen there's these situations are complex and they are hard to unpack for a variety of reasons so we are not saying again cut or end his football career but we are saying that there
needs to be time and space for that process to play out and it is hard to give that to the player and the other people that are involved when you are utilizing this player and and handling the situation and messaging the situation as if nothing happened and again the police report is not declarative and also the responded statements are not declarative as well there are a lot of reasons why someone in this person's position would recant a statement like that
they're about to bear von Miller's child and there are thoughts of potential financial support that could go by the wayside how do I care for this child if the father is not in the picture there are a lot of really scary calculations that people in abused relationships make unfortunately because they are prioritizing something other than themselves in their own well-being often the well-being of a child in situations like this so again we don't
that is all to say that we don't know what the outcome of this is going to be and anyone that purports to is lying to you but what it does mean is that there needs to be time and space for this process to play out and those things are not gained to me at least with the lack of restraint in patients the way the bills are handling the situation.
Yeah, no, very well said and you know I think I'll kind of a final thought on the whole thing is the immediate feel I get from the way they are handling the situation is that depending on how big your contract is the variability of the bad shit you do is is lesser is worse or better depending on how big your contract is.
If Von Miller if a person if Von was a fifth string you know defensive end not just playing like one but was also a practice squad defensive end he probably would have been released from the team already just on an allegation without any kind of legal process playing out.
Yep for the for the first time it feels like the culture the McDermott and Bean have quote unquote created it feels like every other team's culture I think maybe for the first time is how I'm experiencing it right now but that's a tough one JJ and on the topic of McDermott he has also had a rough week for reasons unrelated to his handling of the Von Miller situation. How much do you want to get into this Tyler Dunn thing?
I mean my read on this is that it is a Rorschach test for how you feel about McDermott one person may read this and feel like this confirms everything they have suspected and have seen of McDermott and his coaching and his handling of the media and his handling of post game conferences and all of that and then for others it could feel like a potential hit job full of lies and of disgruntled players and disgruntled employees who didn't fit with the winning
culture that McDermott has brought to the team. So how much do you want to get into this and are you pro Tyler Dunn or are you anti Tyler Dunn that's where I want to know where you are right now. So I'll start by saying whether I'm pro or anti Tyler Dunn can live on its own aside from whether I'm pro or anti this particular three article series 20,000 plus words on McDermott. I am pro Tyler Dunn. I've liked the material that he's done.
I feel like he at times through his career has proven to be a capable journalist who has you know occasion. I think this is the thing with Tyler Dunn. He has a bias to his to his voice when he writes an article he is trying to convince you of something and as as a journalism major and undergrad I pick that up immediately right.
And so but that's that's not to say you know that's not an automatic condemnation of somebody as a journalist because that is a lot of journalists that is a lot of journalists in the field that being completely impartial and just reporting the facts as they are in proper pros is very difficult. And so you know there tends to be a little personality a little bit of bias in the way that right comes through.
So saying that I am a fan of Tyler Dunn because I think his approach to long form journalism to kind of working sources and putting together narratives is something that is missing in the sports in sports media. I think the quick you know five or ten sentence clips on like NFL you know rumors and stuff like that has become you know the 140 characters on X or Twitter is like what we count as was now and I don't think that's true.
I think there is a space for something in a little bit more in depth than nuanced and so I do appreciate Tyler Dunn for that. How much I want to get into the articles I'll say you know I read I read every damn word of them and as a person who has a long has has long been Sean McDermott defender has long been it can be so much worse if you get rid of McDermott person on the internet argument argument of things.
I think what I realized through reading was it's sort of like when you it's like when you buy a car and then you just see that car everywhere when you're driving except what I what I see that all this was revealed to me is confirmation of the of the thing I believed about McDermott but wouldn't let myself verbalize which is that think that we have verbalized on the pot a number of times but I think it's it's an endemic problem that I don't think is going to go anywhere.
I don't think he's going to learn or grow past it and it's that he gets tight emotional and coaches scared.
All know this he nailed 20 nailed out the end of the game 20 seconds left didn't let let Josh Allen even try to get into field goal range like that that came through and spades throughout all three articles was this sense of a person who is so micromanagey who is so tight to like that winning culture who also was referred to as like nobody in the building cares more about a championship cares more about working hard cares more about making it happen for this team than Sean McDermott.
But that can come to bite him at times when the chips are all down and it's the darkest and he grips too hard and that affects the sideline the people and then all of a sudden you have people making mistakes missing tackles on key a third or fourth downs trying to trying to get catch them take the interceptions that about the ball away all of a sudden it's a hell Mary right like that is the kind of thing that the article came through with the number
of sources and almost every single one of them anonymous unless it's a retired player who had really nothing to lose and usually was talking favorably about Dermott.
That's all to say reading through it all some of the stuff was like you know the big headline that's making its way around right now is McDermott's failed attempt in the training camp of 2019 to give a motivational speech about what a team can do can really accomplish if they put their heads together but he his his reference point was the 9 11 terrorists and Kyle Williams tried to summarize to the players in the field after that happened as
an already retired player. I think what I was trying to say is like imagine what these dudes who are evil can accomplish in terms of calamity and terror and where are the good guys imagine what we can do with our level of commitment to doing good and it's just
like that is not like Kyle Williams. Well and that's the thing is like that's Kyle Williams incredible interpretation or translation of what was a far worse speech and so he's getting dragged in the media for that whole thing because it came out through that article and like I guess a number of different sources confirmed that oh that absolutely happened um but and he I mean McDermott all but confirmed that that actually happened too because he
even has said you know I you know regret making those sorts of comparisons and I didn't that was not my best speech I was still learning to be a leader which I actually appreciate him coming out and actually addressing something and taking some you know some culpability but uh but it's really like you know top to bottom I think that the the thing I take from it is I don't think it's lost with with Shawn McDermott I do think if he doesn't
figure out a way to not coach so scared and so tight in the biggest moments and they continue to lose then he must we must move on from him as an as an organization and that's that's it like they are seven and five in games where they have a between one and eight point lead in the last two minutes and since 2021 that is the worst win percentage in that specific scenario of any team in the NFL and that is Shawn McDermott.
Yeah, I I believe that teams take on the character of their coach and what is the thing that we have said about the bills in the McDermott era if they stopped beating themselves if they would simply get out of their own way they would be gangbusters and the best team in the league.
I think this article to me encapsulated a lot of why the character of this team is the way it is because Shawn McDermott is clearly a guy who is in his own head who is stuck in his own process oftentimes drowning in his own process and as a result of that he tends to be his own worst enemy be it a horrid, horrid exercise in comparative analysis to try to improve the communication skills of his of his squad or be it in game decision
making he is his own worst enemy clearly because of the mental process that he chooses to go through and chooses to not deviate from and the bills have taken on that character too is a team that cannot get out of its own way in key moments. So to me the article I think encapsulated that for me in a large way.
I'm always hesitant with anonymous sources because there are you always have to be mindful that when you are in a position of leadership and power like McDermott is and he has the close proximity to the decision maker that he does with Bean and you're in that position for that long people are going to leave the organization be they coaches or be they players and eventually the cone of silence that you can create over one bill's drive is going
to break down and splinter slow slowly as people move away from that location. And it is happening to McDermott because one I think there are some facts in the story that bear reporting but two the opportunity to report them is increased because of the long tenure that McDermott has in the trail of former coaches and departed players that you leave behind in your wake when you have such a long tenure.
So the opportunity has presented itself the facts to me again other than the 9 11 story which is just truly bizarre and I'm going to take McDermott is where that he was just a lousy leader in that moment and he didn't recognize it immediately and corrected it. But the story for me confirms I think more largely why the bills are the type of team that they are because they have taken on the character of their head coach is as a guy who cannot get out of his own way.
Yeah, and I think you know I think that the other the other piece of that that was sort of a revelation to me reading the article is a number of different points in time that were pointed out and they were less you know ambiguous than anonymous sources because it was like specific pull quotes from no press conferences and things like that after big time losses.
The number of times Sean McDermott has either blamed nobody or blamed the offense for a clear and complete you know collapse of his defense like that is that was the thing that to another thing I took away from the articles where I was like ooh now I'm remembering these press conferences and you're each time he says ooh execution or we didn't get it done and that starts with me.
He never actually expanded on it that starts with me and my defense was called wrong he would say oh you know we didn't get on and starts with me and then go on to blame the offense for scoring too fast and giving Mahomes too much time like 13 seconds too much time like that's it is just you know that's the thing that also worries me and like you said a team takes on the personality of its coach and somebody who's unwilling to preach his
accountability but then when his defense or his calls or 12 men on the field which is ultimately his responsibility is a reason for a loss he does not take accountability squarely on himself other than saying like weird platitudes and things about everybody needs to look in the mirror and try to get better like that's I think that's one thing I also took from it but that's that's what it is we hopefully won't see another massive
um you know named end of a game horror show like we saw with 13 seconds or 12 men or whatever it might be this coming Sunday against the Kansas City Chiefs do you want to get into that match up a little bit Dan? Yes but I feel like you've already put a hex on this game by saying hopefully we won't see it because now I feel like it is assured that we will see some calamitous ending for this game.
And we know it's going to be tight I'm pretty sure of that I feel like this is going to be decided by six or less points is my opinion of this game. Yeah you know breaking down the numbers for this I could see that as a possibility but there I don't know I got a weird vibe on this game I got positive for the bills but let's dig into it so I can work my way through the rationale.
Absolutely why don't we start with the the Buffalo Bill's defense versus this Chief offense because I think that's probably you know if we're going to talk strength on strength it's probably bills O versus Chiefs D but I think you know the second tier of this this teams or these teams match up is really Buffalo Bill's injury riddle defense versus this Chiefs offense that just can't seem to find its identity and we'll have an even harder
time of it um with you know breakout running back Isaiah Pacheco down for the game um out with a shoulder injury I believe. Yes he will be out so I think they said McKinnon is going to get the start or is a Clyde Edwards a lair one of the two. One of the two.
Clyde this is one thing I'll say anybody who's like dragging the bills for missing the Kyrie Olympic the Olympic was around the same time that Clyde Edwards a lair was picked by the Chiefs he's been almost a almost as bad of a bust in terms of getting things done in productivity. That is a that is a long way to go you are you are doing some mental gymnastics that is a long way to go. I'm trying to justify every. Well and Elam's also not cooked yet too I still got a book for that kid. I know.
Yeah anyway I digress we can't do another Elam diatribe.
No no no. So in so we are starting with uh the Chiefs offense and the Bill's defense and I'll tell you this is right this is an interesting an interesting matchup from the standpoint that it is simultaneously both strength on strength and weakness on weakness and something is going to have to give and what I mean by that JJ is that the pass rush of the Buffalo Bill's as we have discussed while Leonard Floyd is the the the clear producer on that
defensive line other guys have had have had some decent seasons in your so an Oliver and the Buffalo Bill's are third in pass rush win rate according to ESPN Stesson info they now go up against an offensive line in the Kansas City Chiefs that is first in past block win rate. So this is the epitome line for line strength for strength when it comes to the Buffalo Bill's needing to do what they need to try to put pressure on my homes and bring him down.
What I mean by weakness on weakness JJ is these two lines are also the bottom third of the league respectively in run stop win rate and run block win rate. So the Buffalo Bill's I think ranked 19th in run stop win rate and the Kansas City Chiefs are 22nd in the league at run block win rate. So these are two teams whose strength is clearly engaging with the pass game and weaknesses on the line are engaging with the run game.
It's going to be fascinating to see though the offensive approach that Andy Reed decides to take even with Pachanko out because these with this wide receiver room for Kansas City I feel like it's fair to say is maybe the weakest they've had in the Reed Mahomes marriage and the drop rate for this wide receiver unit.
We make a lot of the big drops that we see in prime time but the drop rate for this unit has been consistently high all season outside of Kelsey and maybe Rice the rookie rookie wide receiver for Kansas City out of SMU. There are not a lot of options that Mahomes trust and he proves it with a lot of his decision making. He's no longer the point guard ball distributor that he was even last season their first season without Tyree kill.
So there's got to be some sort of pressure release valve on Mahomes in this game that I think is going to tempt Reed to engage with the run game a little bit more to see if the weakness that he has in that area can at least be stronger than the weakness that the bills have in stopping it. I think back to that 2020 COVID game the one that got rescheduled between the bills and the chiefs and it was the last time I think the chiefs played in Buffalo. Andy Reed ran the ball in that game JJ 40 times.
Andy Reed doesn't do anything in a game 40 times. He ran the ball 40 times in that game. And so I think what we're going to see in order to negate the strength of the bills but also engage one of their weaknesses is I think we're going to see a balanced offensive approach here even with Pachanko out. And I think we're going to see the chiefs break out some some interesting play selections when it comes to running the ball.
I don't think it's going to be 50 50 but I think the chiefs are going to focus in on the run and running at a higher clip to try to keep the bills offense off the field but also try to expose a potential weakness with this otherwise pretty stout defensive line for the bills. Well, and I think the other piece of that is that you know if I'm the chiefs the way I want to attack the bills is establish a run enough that I don't think Patrick Mahomes doesn't do a lot of play action.
No, they're not they're not gimmick. They know he they don't yeah they don't do a lot of play action but I do think that that that's a perfect wrinkle to add to this game.
Something you don't do a lot of have Kelsey you know the fake run block for two beats and then head out on a route and all of a sudden you have a great you know mismatch because Travis Kelsey versus either to Rear Bernard or even Tyrell Batson is a little bit of a size mismatch in terms of you know being able to break tackles and so I think there's some opportunities that are you know just because I know that there are there are
people that I hold near and dear that would be remiss if I didn't mention Taylor Swift will be in attendance for this game. The chiefs are four and one at home when Tay Tay is there so just keep that in the back of your mind as well. Because we're talking about the chief so and you're on a heat you're on a heat tonight I will tell you you're pulling you're pulling these these engaging and exotic stats out of nowhere exactly exotic stats.
I'll give you an exotic stat this this marks the first start first career start for rookie tackle Wanya Morris. He'll be taking over for Donovan Smith on the left side which is Patrick Holmes is not a South Palsy. He is not. Okay so that's his blindside so hopefully Leonard Floyd AJ Apeniza maybe Greg or so and some switch snaps. I'm looking at you guys get something done against a rookie in his first start start at left tackle.
They're going to want especially if they don't have Pacheco they're going to want to get Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Elair going on screens so I think that those are two things that the bills have to look for looking for Russell Douglas turn Johnson to you know click and close because that's something they do very well in zone but the the chiefs will start to try to get them going on screens and get Pat on the ground is the other key
to the game and I think you mentioned that as well as there is going to be some opportunities this bills past Rush defense is one of the better ones in the league the you know the chiefs are one of the better past blocking teams in the league but I think that that also takes into account having Donovan Smith at left tackle with you know the shuffle on the line there may be some opportunities around the edges for the bills the interiors just
rock solid it's going to be really hard for the bills to make anything and even with as good as at Oliver's been playing going up the middle of it against Joe Tooney Creed Humphrey and Trace Smith is is a very very that's a tall task for anybody has an extraordinary burden at Oliver will be bearing their their pocket integrity is pretty excellent and so Joanne Taylor right tackle has had a decent up and down season but certainly with Juan
Nemours playing for the first time in the starting position at left tackles those those are the weaknesses but dude like I'm not a I'm Rishi Rice is a very smooth route runner and tends to make some things happen Justin Watson's a decent you know possession receiver Skymore up and down I just don't see any real threats on the outside other than Travis Kelsey and I think that they're they're running and screen game takes a huge hit without Pacheco
in the game. Oh yeah this is an offense that can absolutely be had and I would even I would
even be so bold as to use the term be shut down. Now the question is do the Buffalo Bills have enough healthy bodies on offense to do that and I think you're at your point about the chiefs using more play action I think is important because where the bills are weakest right now especially with the question the the open question about the remaining of efficacy of Poyer and Hyde is over the middle of the field and it has been it has
been the case with Dodson replacing Milano since Milano went down so play action would really open up the middle of the field for Mahomes in a way that I think could really help them establish the passing game in ways that haven't been able to this season and potentially get into a groove against a team that is not the Las Vegas Raiders which seems to be the only team the chiefs have had any kind of passing success against so it'll
be interesting to see because the chiefs JJ the chiefs don't do that 80 83% of Mahomes's dropbacks do not include play action or an RPO they are straight dropbacks that they're trusting the home to make the Mahomes to make the right read and make the right throw so if they add that wrinkle in and they get they they choose that little bit of creativity it it could be a long longer day than we anticipate for this bills defense for sure.
Yeah. And if I'm the defense I'm trying not to use pressure looks I'm trying to get as much natural pass rush pressure as I can and cluttering the passing lanes because that's where we know Patrick Mahomes will eat you alive if you have soft zones if you played man especially that is the area where Rishi Rice and Skymore crossing can like really really hurt you so I think that that's you know we we sort of got a blueprint for how we would expect one
the chiefs to attack the bills if they want to kind of hit them in an unexpected way and then to kind of the things the keys that the bill should should kind of put on their their platter for this game on defense against the chiefs do you want to talk about our Lord and Savior Josh Allen.
I do and the place that I want to start is the is the I think the most obvious matchup that is Spags Steve Spagnola the defensive coordinator for the chiefs against Josh Allen Spags is known to run a multiple front and he will disguise looks he will bring pressure he will use odd odd man fronts he will do whatever he can to confuse and attack the opposing QB and while Josh in his last five games against the chiefs has been absolutely gangbusters
to the tune of 14 TDs to only two interceptions he has struggled against this Spags led defense when the chiefs have chosen to blitz him now Josh against the Blitz is usually money but we have seen in stretches this season from the Jags game I think right up until the Jets game where the offense seem to finally right itself that Josh struggled at a an unlikely rate against the Blitz this season but consistently against the chiefs JJ he has struggled against
pressure against them so against the Blitz in the five games that Josh has played against the chiefs since 2020 he's only completed about 49.2% of his passes.
Compare that when the chiefs choose not to blitz Allen and he completes his passes at about a 70% clip 69.9% to be exact and his average yards per attempt skyrockets from 4.9 to 9.4 so if I am the bills I am expecting the chiefs to bring as much heat as possible and not only because it's proven to be effective in stretches against Josh when he has played this team but because the chiefs have struggled I think in recent weeks it's fair to say
to generate pressure on the opposing QB. There's still I believe second or third in the league in overall sacks but when you look at their production via splits over the last three and five games they have really struggled in their pass block win rate but also in their sack production as well so this feels like a defensive line that for a lot of reasons is on the decline or teams have figured something out in their scheming to negate or at least
stun this Kansas City Chiefs pass rush that was so effective earlier in the season so I think not just because it has been historically effective against Josh Spags is going to bring the blitz but I think if they're going to get any pressure on him at all it feels like the way this chiefs defensive line has been playing it's going to be a necessity.
Yeah absolutely and I think maybe one of the things that you may have kind of uncovered that has changed is that their middle linebacker Nick Bolton has been on IR with a wrist injury they had at surgery on kind of like Ardoss and Knox and so I think that might have taken a lot off of their pass rush because he is a middle linebacker who really works so much better playing toward the line of scrimmage and not necessarily dropping into coverage
like his running mate the Sam linebacker Drew Tranquill who will be out with concussion this week which is an excellent opportunity for the Bills we can talk about in a minute but I agree I think that if they you know if chiefs defense want to get anything done they have to get pressure on Josh Allen and thankfully the Buffalo Bills have the lowest sack percentage in the league they have one of the best pass rush or I'm sorry pass blocking
win rates in the league and so hopefully can keep that going to hit some of those long you know long over the top and intermediate throws down the seam because the chiefs will be missing as I mentioned Drew Tranquill who is an excellent modern linebacker in terms of coverage kind of getting to a spot a little bit lighter a little bit quicker and then they're also missing their starting free safety Brian Cook who's in his second year and there
were a couple of plays a big got a habit throws that Jordan Love was able to make for the Green Bay Packers after Brian Cook left the field and Mike Edwards who replaced him was a little bit lost in the coverage and so I'm certain that with some more practice knowing he's coming in the starter Mike Edwards will will better than you looked in that Green Bay game because it was honestly a pretty massive liability with him in the deep third
and so we'll see what happens and Justin Reed their other starting safety is very and will be there but he plays a little bit closer to the line often and so there's really some opportunities I think down the middle of the field the place that the bills will maybe struggle a little bit is with the outside receivers I know that Stefan Diggs is not afraid of Lageria Snead and everybody on the team is bigger than Tre- McDuffie but
um they're both pretty scrappy and they both will will play the point of attack pretty hard with the ball they'll come down and tackle too so um yeah I mean that's my my prescription for this you know a bill's offensive win is one let Josh cook right like let him pull it down and run it let him have a man advantage in the rushing game and kind of do some design stuff um attack the middle of the field again with the absence of Drew Tranquil and Brian
Cook and then that when you're running the ball against this Chiefs defense which is very good against you know shutting down the run but very bad at the yards per carry for some reason it's one of those weird statistical confluences the bills have to which is they hold enough you know they they hold the other team to few enough rushes and make the other team pass enough that when they do pop one it's usually 18 yards or something and so
it throws that whole yards per carry way off um because then their yards per game is is low and they're pretty good defense but um I will say if the bills offense is going to run at this Chiefs Chiefs either run directly at Chris Jones with a double team on him or run to the farthest possible gap away from him when I've been watching the film of games the Chiefs have have completely shredded the opponents in their attempts to run it's because
the team is trying to do like a center gap or a guard gap that's adjacent to Chris Jones but not directly at him so he's one on one shedding the block tackle for loss fumble you know like there's a lot of different things happen there he's amazing and um there's only one way to beat him by running running the ball towards him and that's directly at him with a double team yeah and I would add one more prescription JJ to what you laid
out for a successful Buffalo Bills offense offensive effort and that is play action the Green Bay Packers the Jordan Love Green Bay Packers um absolutely sucked in these backup linebackers and the backup safety for the Kansas City Chiefs utilizing what felt like every play a play action down play action rep they were sucking those guys so close to the line of scrimmage that it made some of those shots over the top that you mentioned
possible on that Green Bay game and we know that Josh is the best QB this season statistically when he is running play action and the Buffalo Bills per success rate in the league are number two overall in the league um by a success rate when they run a play action pass so the Bills I think have an innate strength that they can use to expose what has become a massive weakness with the injuries this Kansas City Chiefs defense are facing in the play action
game so I'd like to see them not only run the ball in some creative ways and maybe maybe some powerful ways right into the teeth of that defensive line but also use some of the run to set up some effective play action as well because I think I think this is a game where we're going to see the Buffalo Bills potentially take the top off this Kansas City Chiefs defense in the second half if they set it up the right way with their reps on
the first and they will be gettable without you know uh Brian Cook in they there is an opportunity there oh absolutely yeah yeah this yeah I I feel good about this game probably because I'm a delusional Bills fan but yeah I think as we have broken it down offense defense there are more pluses for the Bills in the wind column than there are there are negatives for them on both sides of the ball agreed and uh the only side of the ball that
I think that the Chiefs are invariably better in every possible way as special teams the Bills special teams has taken pretty massive downturn this year and been an unfortunate decider in some games or cause some games to be much closer or be losses you know at different times whether it's a missed field goal um you know a punt return touchdown and overtime like various places um the special teams needs to be better uh Harrison Butger
for the KC Chiefs has not missed a single kick this year um which is impressive uh but it's just another kind of that's an area that they're they're doing so much better and it does matter that you know in the scheme of complimentary football yeah yeah absolutely and they are the Buffalo Bills meanwhile are 22nd in overall DVO way on special teams so this has not been a banner year for a team that uh prides itself on playing all three phases what about hitting
some predictions sure to go wrong yeah absolutely I'm feeling very confident that uh when I'm about to say well absolutely be wrong let's start with sport yes um I've got so just so everyone is aware this game this line opened up at two and a half in favor of the Chiefs Chiefs minus two and a half this line as a 4pm today was all the way down to minus one for the Chiefs which basically means that on a neutral field the Buffalo Bills would
actually be favored by about two points if you give three points to the home team so there is a lot of money going on the Bills this game I don't think there is a lot of confidence out there in the betting public with that this Chiefs offense is all of a sudden going to write the ship um this far into the season um this offense probably is what it is and the question that you have to answer is with this offense for Kansas
City struggling so much even with some of the deficient parts the Bills have on defense do they have enough to slow it down and my answer to that is yes and more importantly I think the Bills offense will unquestionably be the best offense this Kansas City Chiefs defense faces all season and not that they have been untested but they haven't been tested by an offense the quality of the Bills at this point so I think the offense has a big
day I think the defense has a surprisingly good day against my homes and I'm going to say Bills win and I'm going to say 34-21 they're going to win by a couple of scores.
I like it I like it um you got 34-21 I've got the Bills winning 28-18 and I'm hopeful for my workman like when yeah workman like when and I'm hopeful for my cardiac health that the 28 is like 28-10 late in the fourth and the eight is like touchdown with two point and they need like a onside kick with a minute left and it's really kind of out of hand and you know there's no way they're going to get two scores in the time that's left but uh
we're all sort of gripping a little bit but not like we have been for some of these overtime games nonsense we've had to deal with this season. Yeah nice I like it I like it a lot. Any props you want a prop? Yeah Josh Allen over under 45 and a half yards rushing. Hmm 45 and a half I'm going to slam the over on because I think that that's a component of this offense for the rest of the run.
Yeah I agree the we have always joked that Josh Allen running is like the brake glass in case of emergency option and we are in a state of freaking emergency with what we need to do in order to make the postseason here. The glass is crunching under panicked footsteps at this point because it's already been broken.
Exactly and again if we expect Specs to bring the pressure packages that that he is known for Josh is going to have to buy time with his legs and potentially break the pocket when needed and maybe gain some very important yardage with his legs in this game so yeah I I I agree I'm going to take the over I think this feels like a 55 yard 60 yard rushing performance for Josh. I've got Stefan Diggs one and a half touchdowns over under under.
Yeah I don't know the last time he had a multiple multi touchdown game against Kansas City but the second the site the outside corners are are excellent.
I think he's going to get one digs always finds a way to get one and digs is a matchup nightmare I think for either Snead or McDuffie depending on who is on him but I don't necessarily think that this is going to be a game where digs is going to get multiple scores and I've got no good reason for thinking that other than Josh in the Brady Brady offense has been a great distributor of the ball all the way around.
I could see multiple guys getting touchdowns for sure but I don't know if the target funnel to digs exists in the way that it did early in the season so I'm going to say under I think he gets one. Fair. All right do you have another prop. Wait what are you are you over run around that. Oh I'm over I proposed it because I think digs is going to have a two TD scoring game. No look at you. Look at you.
I think he's going to he's going to come on you know and kind of assert himself you know those games that digs occasionally has where like the bills are kind of down and out and he like shows up and just roasts a DB that everyone thought was a was a you know absolute game breaker.
Though that's what I'm looking for you know what and it doesn't even mean he gets like 200 yards or something insane it just means he has like a good 60 or 70 yards but he goes for two scores and really kind of rubs it in the face of Lijerius Neeter whoever is covering him one on one. Yeah that would be amazing I'd love to see that that would be vintage digs for sure. Yes exactly. Do you have any defensive props or any other props. I do.
Buffalo Bills over under two and a half sacks against Patrick Mahomes. Oh. I'm going to take a sad under because and this is why I think that Patrick Mahomes is like not as escapeable as Josh Allen but he's relatively close to that level and for some reason when the bills are they're like he's like Houdini when they try to get him on the ground so I'm thinking to but not over not over two and a half.
Yeah I'm taking the under as well and it's for exactly the reasons that you mentioned Mahomes just is very evasive and this Buffalo Bills defensive line has had a really hard time bringing him down consistently over the course of this this mini rivalry that they've had since since 2020. I got one defensive prop for you. Bills over under half of interception off of Patrick Mahomes.
Yeah I'll take the I'll take I'll definitely take the over on that so in so they've played five games since 2020 as I've said multiple times but Mahomes is actually thrown averaged one interception against the bills over his last four he's thrown four in his past four games so yeah I think the bills are going to take one for sure. Yeah great yeah that's that's the last prop I got. Yep all right excellent.
JJ we covered a lot of territory in this particular pod but here is to hoping that this is the start of a glorious and amazing run for Buffalo Bills on the way to the postseason because if they don't pull it out in Kansas City this week our our hopes could be dashed more quickly than I think any of us are prepared for. So JJ thanks for podding with me for all of you listening at home like share and subscribe. Wherever you get your podcast Google Apple Spotify and as always go Bills.
Go Bills. Go Bills. Go Bills. Go Bills. Go Bills.