All right, Buffalo Brad podcast, we are in the championship round of these NFL playoffs and our Buffalo Bills have, you know, of course defeated the Baltimore Ravens at home in the divisional round to head to the inevitable. The train coming down the tracks, the enemy of destiny, Kansas City Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reed, Steve Spagnolo. And Dan, you lived you lived squarely in the middle of Nervous Mafia Town last last week. Where where you live in these days?
I get more confident as the postseason goes on JJ for a couple of reasons. One, the Buffalo Bills have shown an incredible adaptability in each of their games, game planning, particularly on the defensive side of the ball for their specific matchup. They played a ton of dime, for example, against the Denver Broncos, and then they played a lot more base than we're used to seeing them play to really sell out and stop the run against Baltimore.
And while Baltimore had success in the second half of that game and Jackson and Henry kind of found their groove, the Bills have found a formula defensively in this postseason JJ where they can take away what their opponent wants to do in enough consistent stretches to let the offense do their job and get the game script in their favor. So it's a formula JJ to me that feels like it's working and feels like it is reaching its peak efficacy as we roll into the matchup.
We all kind of felt was inevitable a rematch with the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC championship. I hear you. And it's funny you mentioned, you know, the Buffalo Bills recipe for success is to play a conservative grain game script when they need to get ahead on the scoreboard bleed clock, you know, let the other team make mistakes, don't make mistake, play mistake free football.
Josh Allen has played the most mistake free football season of any NFL quarterback since the merger in terms of the percentage of his total plays that result in something negative loss of yards, fumble, interception, et cetera. And so I think that that's absolutely part of it. And that may be the difference is Josh Allen's super clean play versus Patrick Mahomes who's had incredibly clean play, but only since the Bills game forward. Oh yeah, absolutely.
And that was the difference in the Ravens game too. I mean, there's a lot of like, listen, the whole discourse leading into the Ravens game was so toxic online, the Lamar versus Josh stuff, the MVP talk. And then people are really trying to pin that loss on Lamar. Listen, the two turnovers in the first half were costly that Lamar had. But the reality is, is Lamar played lights out in the second half. Like he had that team on the precipice of tying the game.
And how many times is Bills fans, if you want to remember? Have we been in that situation as we have experienced Josh's maturity arc where there's a there's a bad pitch and maybe the Houston game, there's a couple of picks against Kansas City, but then all of a sudden he turns it out at the right moment. That is just something and we forget how young Lamar is given how long he's been in the league. But that's just something that Lamar is going to figure out as he matures.
The fact that he had the second half that he had, to me shows like the incredible skill, the incredible talent that's behind that dude. But it also showcased JJ, what you said, kind of like Lamar looking at what his future self could be and Josh and the way that he does not cost his team opportunities anymore to get six or get three or at the very least keep the opposing teams offense off the field.
If you're a Ravens fan, you want to see the evolution that we have seen with Josh and Lamar and as a Bills fan, that evolution JJ to me is a reason why I feel. I can't believe I'm going to say this confident heading into the Chiefs game. These are two teams that have played historically clean football, particularly as you noted for the Chiefs playing a lot just figuring out the turnover thing since their last game against the Bills. But this has been a way of life for Buffalo all season.
It's kind of like that Dark Knight Rises quote from Bane where you've only adopted the darkness. I was born into it. We have been born into this turnover free brand of football all season. And I still feel like as a result, there's some opportunities to force Casey into some bad habits that they experienced at the beginning of the season, particularly with some of the vulnerabilities they have on the offensive line.
I think you might have the Bane quote a little twisted because I think Casey was born into it. The McStake free football has been since Tyree Kill was traded away. That has been their brand of winning. I think their brand of winning. All right, and I'm probably going to have to now go back and pull numbers on this and I feel a bourbon bet coming on.
But I think with Casey, we've seen this a couple of times, particularly early on in their past two seasons, or I would even say the past three seasons, early on post Tyree Kill trade. We've seen Mahomes forcing things because he didn't know who necessarily to trust with the ball. Mahomes hasn't thrown a pick since that week 11 game against Buffalo, but he still has double digit picks and double digit turnovers this season.
And it was the same thing last season and the same thing the season before. I think where I'm going with my analogy and the Bane quote is that the chief seem to have a gear when they can turn it on, right? And they can rise to every situation that has been thrown at them so far. But what we're seeing from the Buffalo Bills this season, as far as care for the football and on the flip side, reckless abandonment when going after the other team to try to turn it over, that to me is unprecedented.
And that's something I don't think as good as Casey has been at taking care of the ball this year. I don't think they can replicate in this upcoming game or it'll be harder for them to replicate. Sure. Yeah, no. Okay, I get that. Yeah, I think that you're absolutely right. And that was the difference.
And I think that will be the difference for the Casey game that was the difference for the Ravens, it will be the difference for the Casey game is which quarterback is able to maintain and sustain a drive at a critical moment to keep control of the ball in and play that super clean football.
And then which defense is able to force things which either force the quarterback to make a decision, force, you know, a runner to cover up the ball because they're punching it, they're punching it out or attempting to.
Those are the questions is which which kind of team is going to have more moments, individual moments because that's what this game is going to come down to just as the Ravens game did the, it was one by two, the Ravens missed two two point conversions and had had three other chances to score touchdowns ripped away from them by Bill Sternover. So it's going to be really about who makes the worst mistake last. Absolutely.
I think it's going to be a, you know, I don't know that it's going to be a high scoring affair. This is going to be like Bill's throw Uno reverse and then Chief's throw Uno reverse. These are two teams that want to matriculate the ball down the field basically because of the way they play each other. And listen, Spags has been known for dialing up some really crazy Blitz packages.
When it has come to Josh, his Blitz packages have had more efficacy in certain stretches, but overall less effectiveness throughout the course of the game because the way Josh is able to maneuver and adapt to the Blitz. This could very well be a game JJ where both and Mahomes is just, he feels like he's immune to pressure, right?
Just so you can actually get the guy on the ground, like a lot of traditionally great passers, his pocket presence and his mobility in the pocket, his ability to throw off platform, like pressure just doesn't bother these two QBs in a lot of ways. Getting them on the ground, however, is a different story. So this is a game where I could really see potentially Spags just sitting back in zone.
And even though that organic four man rush for Kansas City has been very weak this season, only 31st in overall efficiency when generating pressure from the four down linemen, I could absolutely see Spags maybe changing where some of that pressure is coming from, maybe dropping a line, maybe dropping the fourth linemen into coverage, having Chenal shoot the A gap. I mean, there's a there's a lot of ways that you can get some exotic confusing stuff with just four guys.
And I could absolutely see Spags leaning into that because of his history against Josh and John's history against the Blitz. Well, I think you bring up a good point too, which is the four other than Chris Jones, the four down linemen are not going to they're not going to eat your lunch if you're a good offensive line. This is one of the best offensive lines. This is the best offensive line in the modern post drought era the bills have had in the season.
And I think that one of the biggest things is Conor McGovern and Josh Allen's communication has to be on point, especially in a hostile environment, especially when it's loud to make sure their protections are right. Because I think you're absolutely correct in that spagnolo is going to lean on Leo Chenal on delayed Blitz or twist, twist stunts with down linemen. And he's going to he's might rely a little bit on Trent McDuffie coming out of the slot.
And both of those individuals have top 10 at their position past rush win rates when coming from those those, you know, locations. So I think that, yes, the the down line for the the chiefs is really about control Chris Jones and you will, you know, control the game. I think Spencer Brown or Deon Dawkins can handle Carl Loftus one on one. They should. We've seen them handle better past rushers.
But it's really going to come down to, you know, what what the bills can do in those key moments when that that twist or that fire, you know, from the slot comes if Spagnolo sends McDuffie and Josh doesn't have an answer with the ball immediately when that that shows up in his face.
I think that's a that's a little bit of a downfall of everybody because, you know, I think that having as many targets as Josh has, he doesn't necessarily have Shakira, I guess in some regards is the no matter what I have that guy guy. But you know, as as these players develop in the system, hopefully one one emerges, that's like the third and Beasley, right? Like the third and Cole, where it's, you know that that guy is going to be in a good position. He needs his his Kelsey.
Absolutely. And we thought his Kelsey was going to be concaved, but injuries and the development of people at the position is really kind of delayed that. I think you're absolutely right about McDuffie. And I think we have seen the Ravens run into this issue with Marlon Humphrey and the Broncos run into this issue with Patrick Sartain. You've got an elite cover corner, but you've got offense that is determined to spread the ball out.
So what do you do with that elite cover corner, because chances are good, whoever you put him on, probably not getting the ball in that moment. And that's also probably not the person who can hurt you the most in that moment. I mean, I could honest to God, see a world. I mean, they've been playing McDuffie so much on the outside because of his his elite coverage abilities.
I could absolutely see a world now that they have Watson back where McDuffie is in two positions glued to Shakira when Shakira is in the slot, because he is the closest thing that Josh has a go to in a release valve or a safety valve when he needs it and clutch moments. And when we're not in those moments, I could see a situation like you described where McDuffie is just rushing the passer as well.
It'd be a unique way to use a DB, but at the end of the day, what this bill's offense tries to do is make you waste your best defensive weapon in the secondary. If Spags really wants to get crazy with it and show the bill something they haven't seen before, glue him to Shakira and then send him on the pass rush when Shakira when you don't think Shakira is a threat or when Shakira is off the field.
Yeah, I think that that's, you know, it's an interesting twist and smart planning on Spagnolla's part. The good news is that if we've thought of it, likely Joe Brady has also thought of it. I would think so. Nothing is novel on this part.
Exactly. But I think I want to like talk just for a moment about the, you know, the bill's offense and the way they're going to design this game plan, I believe is I think they're going to try, I think if they score on their first couple of drives, it's going to be a place election of like 30 runs to like seven passes. And it's going to be long plotting drives. I think that's, if that, if they can hit those, that's going to be the answer.
If they can hit those and get a Kansas City punt in between them, look out world, we're coming right? Like that's, that's the recipe to get through this round because the chiefs, their run, I think you mentioned this before, their run efficiency early in the season was top 10, but it has absolutely tailed off in the latter half of the season. Dropped off a cliff.
Yeah. And so, I mean, they were like fourth best when the bills met them in week 11 and they did poorly enough in the final remaining eight weeks of the season or seven weeks of the season to fall all the way to 11th, which you have to, you know, if you're a person who's ever had a GPA or anything like that, you have to really tank it to drop out a fourth. Absolutely. Yeah. Yeah, absolutely, dude. And I, you know, I think you're, I think you're correct.
And I think that's the way the bills want to win, but that's also the way that teams have forced the bills to win over the past couple of seasons. They're like, we will invite you to run the ball. We are not going to let Josh and your wide receivers beat us over the top. Now the Buffalo Bills have an offense that is very suited to how defenses want to play them.
And as a result of that, I too am expecting limited possessions in this game, unless there's, like we talked about a key turnover here or there that the bills or the chiefs can generate against the opposing unit. But I mean, listen, at the end of the day, I've been saying this all season and we talked about like, what does a bill's victory look like against the Ravens? I said, James Cook needed to have 20 touches. Ty Johnson probably has a touchdown, right? And all this other stuff.
The reality is JJ, as much as I would love to see James Cook touch the ball 22, 25 times a game with the way this run game is built. And with this matriculation efficiency type of style built into this offensive scheme, the Buffalo Bills have an elite offensive line. And I would argue one of the best running back rooms in the league with what they can throw at teams.
I think James Cook will obviously be a feature, but I think a part of the game plan here too is going to be feature all of those running backs and really wear down this KC team as the game goes on. Yeah, I would agree with that. And just I want, I need to throw some flowers at Ty Johnson's feet. He runs like a player who didn't get into the league as a low round draft pick and bounce around on people's practice squads and get caught and be on waivers.
I just like, he just seems like such a talent every time he touches the ball. And he's the kind of player, the fact that he's the best pass blocking back they have and is in on all of those third downs means that you're, you're seeing him show up in all of these incredibly clutch moments, fourth downs as well. Like, like the pass to the back of the end zone against the Broncos, right? Like just wild, wild plays that he's in the center of.
And it's clear that Josh Allen trusts him when it comes to throwing him the ball. And he also, you know, I mean, he iced the game with a first down run for 13 yards, which I thought I think it was exactly 13 yards. All right, JJ, let's flip it over to the offensive side, the defensive side of the ball for the Bills. First and foremost, what are you making of Xavier Worthy and his quote unquote personal vendetta against the Bills for passing on him in the draft in favor of Keon Coleman?
Is there, is there any fire to that smoke? Can you even have that? Like, is that a thing? Yeah, I get that if you're a, you know, if you're a unanimous top five QB and the team trades out to pick somebody else or pick that you thought was going to pick you or they pick a different quarterback over you.
Can you wait until the end of the round because you're the last QB like that's, that's where I think that there's like a reasonable way to have a little bit of sauce on your, you know, on your hate taco. Worthy has none. Like he literally he the Bills, it's almost like he probably wasn't the top wide receiver on the board for every team. So that's why I think it's different.
If this was Brian Thomas Jr. and the Bills were in prime position to pick him a unanimous top four wide receiver in the draft or Malik neighbors or Malik neighbors and they traded away from the opportunity to do so. Sauce that hate taco all you want. This one though, I don't know. It's weak sauce. Dude, you were at the end of the first round. There were three, four other viable options that were on everybody's big board at that point.
You had Xavier Leggette still available, AD Mitchell still available, Keon Coleman and Worthy all still available at that point. Like it was not like to your point, Worthy was a clear cut up. The bills got to have them in that particular spot. The chiefs coveted him a lot. And I think the chiefs made the bills an offer that was very attractive for them in order to trade up and get him. But no one outside of the chiefs was coveting worthy in that way.
They saw his value, just not his value at that particular spot. This is it's wild, dude, it's wild. But like this is what teams do. Andy Reed at the beginning of this whole press tour leading up to this game said, yeah, we're probably going to be the underdogs in this game. And that's fine. Like it's us against everybody. And this is just the shit that teams, players and coaches say to get themselves motivated. There is no greater motivator than no one believes in us.
The chiefs by the way, open this thing is a one and a half point favorite. And that has gone up to two points and a lot of sports books since betting is open on this game. The chiefs are not underdogs in this game. It is wild to me that they continue to convince themselves that they are year in and year out when they are the reigning potential three times Super Bowl champions. That's just crazy to me. But this is the shit teams and players do.
I don't I'm not reading anything into it, but I would also love to see Rizul Douglas and press man on Xavier worthy every time he's he's lined up against him and just put him in the ground. Yeah, I'd like to see Rizul Douglas play Xavier worthy like Ligeria Snead played Terry Hill against the Dolphins last last offseason. Just put him right on the ground every single time. See if his if his release package is up to snuff as a rook. Yeah, absolutely.
So yeah, I think that the injured there are interesting components of this bills defense versus the the chiefs offense. A few of them. So just like one quick note about the bills offense, Keon Coleman will have an opportunity to try to match or or better Xavier worthy stats in this game, the stats don't matter, the wind matters, right? But Keon Coleman, I think probably has a chip on his shoulder to the bills, put a lot of trust in him by trading out to get down there to get him.
He seemed to be their target from the start of the trades and they made two of them. And so I do think that that this is an opportunity for him to step up. And then to when we're talking before about Josh Allen having the guy, Dalton, Kate is playing in this game and didn't play in the game prior, so that'll be an interesting component. But on the flip side of the ball, the bills will have Matt Milano and Trel Bernard, neither of whom they had last last season in this game.
Was Christian Benford also out in that matchup against the chiefs in the playoffs or was he in and Russell Douglas was just playing on like a busted knee. He was in that both Douglas and Benford were playing in that game if memory serves and Douglas was really banged up. He was not he was not 100% not even close to it. Okay. Well, Bill's Mafia. It's the moment we've all been waiting for with the injury to tell a wrap holding him out for this game.
We're recording on Saturday the day before the game. Micah Hyde will be putting on a headset and jacket and sitting on the sidelines coaching Cole Bishop for the start. Yes, absolutely. And I, dude, Cole's going to have some opportunities. They're going to go after Cole, right? Andy Reed and Patrick Mahomes and Matt Nagy, their offensive coordinator. They know how to target what they perceive as the opposing team's weak spot.
And I think back to that Nico that Nico Collins miscommunication in week five where Collins just got behind everybody and it was Bishop's assignment to stay in front of them and took it to the house, right? If I am Sean McDermott and Bobby Babbage, I am like keeling up that game film from Houston being like, dude, this is what you can't let happen because they're going to try to get Hollywood Brown behind them. They're going to try to get Xavier worthy behind them.
And if you're Cole Bishop, you've got to let your speed and athleticism take over at that point, right? And that's Taylor Rapp has been a really solid safety for us. This is a moment that where I could see Cole Bishop's playmaking ability really factor in, which is a lot of pressure to put on a rookie playing against Patrick Mahomes. But I believe this coaching staff can get him ready.
And listen, dude, this coaching staff has never had an athletic specimen like Bishop to work with against Patrick Mahomes. I could actually see him used in some really, really, really important ways. And I think that's that's one of the things too that, you know, if you're one of the benefits to having two incredibly athletic kind of undersized as well as the description used often linebackers in Milano and Bernard is that you can do some switch stuff with safeties.
You don't have to send Milano to sugar the egg app and in threat and that blitz. You can have Cole Bishop creeper up towards the line and go on a blitz and have one of them drop to the deep third. And it's different opportunities to use them because I agree. I think that we, we haven't even seen the tip of the iceberg of the ways that they could employ his usage.
I think the issue with his development this season is that Sean McDermott has said in press availability in years past, usually in the off season when he's like a little bit more open and candid that his defense is pretty complicated and it takes safety specific specifically two to three years to be comfortable with it.
It's why we saw Dean Marlowe come back so many times early and Sean McDermott's coaching tenure was because he was like one of the only guys in the literal world who understood how to teach his peers that defense. He was, you know, mostly a liability in coverage, but it was really just about like he knew it top to top to bottom and was a good player coach in that room.
And that I think is why the bills, you know, signed Mike a hideback and that's because they have Taylor Rapp is year two in the system. They have, um, DeMar Hamlin, who's year three or four, uh, in the system and in four because DeMar Hamlin's I think is unrestricted free agent after this year. Yep. And so they have a couple of people with some experience, uh, but it's really about making sure that Cole Bishop is ready for that moment. And I agree with you.
I think that I worry a lot about this game because, um, Patrick Mahomes has been in the latter half of the season trying to push the ball down the field a lot more and it's, it's to worthy. It's to Hollywood Brown in the last couple of games. And then it's, it's to DeAndre Hopkins. Um, Juju Smith Schuster is there. I think he got like one target in the last game of 20 yards or more.
He has, he hasn't been effective of it, but I don't want this to be the game where all of a sudden he is where the clicks, right? Exactly. And I have significant concerns about when Cole Bishop is in coverage shaded to the side of the field that Russell Douglas is the primary corner because that's when he's been beat. They've been beat on those seam balls like three times this season.
Yeah. That's going to, it's going to be interesting to watch that alignment when it does come up and you know that Reed and Mahomes are very well, well aware of that as, as well. So I could absolutely see that communication and the importance of the communication between your cornerback and your safety playing a huge role there. That's for some of that rookie jitters or the, the downside of playing a rookie could absolutely come into effect.
JJ, let's close it out here before predictions with the talk about the bill's pass rush because there are, there have been notable issues with this Kansas city offensive line. They've moved Duneie and a lot of times over it to, uh, left tackle. They have inserted Kaylee Endowicard.
Um, they have seen an improvement in their pass protection getting Joanne Taylor out of that key left, left tackle spot, but their run game efficacy and their run game efficiency has taken a hit with Kaylee Endowin because he's just not the, he's not the greater that Duneie is. So JJ, what do you think the offensive line alignment for the chiefs is going to look like? And then where do you see some of the advantages for this bill's pass rush to get after Mahomes?
So I think that, um, I think they're going to keep tuning at left tackle. I don't think, excuse me. I think they, Humphrey's, I think is on, is a possibility, but no idea what they have in that guy. He played one game and that got hurt, right? Yeah. So, but he, I think he's, he's healthy again.
So there's a chance you see him show up at, you know, um, at tackle, but I do think if he's an unavailable or they just don't trust him in such a critical key moment, they're going to have Humphrey left tackle. It's, you know, one of the top five, top three, um, guards in the entire league.
And so they're going to have an opportunity to like lean on the guy they need because they deft desperately need protection from the exterior pass rush, the outside deese from the bills, more than they do, um, from the interior pass rush. Sadly, you know, um, Dequan Jones is not having the all pro level season. He was having last season before he was hurt. Um, and at Oliver has shown flashes, but only when he's in one on one matchups, he's not been, you know, splitting double teams as much.
I will say though, he had, he hasn't been making huge splashes on the stat sheet, but he has had an excellent post season that Oliver has to this point. It's the kind of messy, gritty stuff that doesn't show up that on the, on the film or it doesn't show up. It shows up in the film. It doesn't show up on the broadcast, but it's absolutely critical to keeping Matt Milano and Terrell Bernard clean for a lot of their play.
And so for that, I think that there's a chance that, um, you know, we see at Oliver have a nice game here, specifically if he has a matchup against, um, their, uh, their backup guard, uh, whose name Kelly, I know Mike Kelly, I know. Yeah. Um, but yeah, DJ Humphries, I don't know. He might go in at tackle. Um, and if he does, I think that's a wonderful opportunity for either Greg Russo or, um, um, Tom Miller. Why am I blanking?
I'm just because, because Von has had very little impact for the bills since he was signed. He's so forgettable. Um, and he probably no longer with the team after the season. Well, and this is the kind of, this is the kind of moment where like, Von is, he cares a lot about positively in like the universe and legacy and all this stuff.
Von, if you want your legacy to be established as a good pickup for the Buffalo Bills, make two critical plays in this game and a Super Bowl, just two, doesn't even have to be a full on sack, just forced to force the issue. Just push a runner outside in like, you know, an obvious situation where they had a crease over your side, your side of the, the run fit and just, you know, force a negative play that way.
Like just two, two good plays in this game and a future game, um, for the bills to, to secure victories. And I don't think that even if he leaves this off season, people are people are going to probably say like, yeah, we overpaid, but they're not going to like, he's going to be welcome back. You get free wings if you ever, you know, Danes to come near Buffalo again. Yeah, no, absolutely. I agree. Um, I, ah, dude, I would love to see more from this defensive line and the four down pass rush.
I really would. Um, there were moments in that Ravens game where we were rushing for particularly in the second half because we just dropped everybody into zone because we were so afraid of Lamar like, you know, getting the 20 point touchdown and what have you. But it was, listen, it was solid scheming defensively. That's the way you got to play at the end of a game, keep everything in front of you. But man, that four man pass rush against the, against the Baltimore offensive line.
I mean, it just got nothing. It got nothing. Um, and that was the moment in that game where it's like, oh yeah, our guys are really small on the defensive line, right? They really are undersized. So that being said, you put a guy like Humphrey in, you put a guy like Duni in. Um, that's where speed. That's where the speed and the athleticism of some of these edge rushers could really potentially wreak havoc in Epinezza Miller, Andrew.
So, and that's what I'm going to be watching on the defensive side of the ball for sure. And I want to see like, I want to see how Cole does. I want to see where Rizul Douglas is positioned, right? He is him and Benford can be two really physical, uh, cornerbacks. And we saw in week 11 where the bills played a lot more man against the chiefs and they played a lot more press than they're used to seeing. I, dude, I would dust that off again. I would dust that off again.
And I know Hollywood Brown is a bigger factor in the equation this time around, but I would see if there is any continuation of success against these guys because worthy. He is not a press beater and neither is Brown been throughout the course of his career, right? And Hopkins as good as he is, he's not an elite separator and hasn't been for a few years.
I think you can take your chances at man, if you really want to play some of that magnets on to shut down Kelsey like we saw and see if the Kansas City Chiefs in between week 11 and now have come up with an answer for it. When it really is, you know, that week 11, we described it in depth on the pod, but it was really three down linemen replaced the fourth linemen with an extra DB have your two linebackers still on the field.
You know, so it's a dime coverage, uh, with six defensive backs, uh, two linebackers and three, three down linemen. It's the kind of thing where like when I was watching that Ravens game, I was like, why are we even because they did what they did was they did the traditional dime where they dropped, um, they took a safe or I'm sorry, a linebacker off the field and replaced them with a DB. And so it was four down linemen linebacker and then six DBs. Like why are we, why are we doing that?
Just got shredded. Yeah, it's just not worth it.
And then the bills have also played a different dime where they keep linebackers in and take, um, you know, they, they take the, the down linemen off in those situations when the three man organic pressure with this defensive line, you might as well take all of the defensive linemen off the field because if it's a linebackers, well, if it's a passing situation, the, the offensive line can advance down the field anyway until the ball, you know, is in the hands of somebody.
So yeah, you might get into trouble with a screen, but otherwise like freaking a third and 25, take all of your defensive linemen off the field. It's probably because they just don't have enough capable, you know, DBs on the, on the game day roster, but fill it with linebackers and DBs. I don't care. Like cause it's, that's how much effectiveness the bill's past rush has had when they're overmatched five, five to four or five to three. Love it. Oh my God. I love it. All right, JJ.
Are you ready for some prediction? Sure to go wrong on this one. I mean, we didn't talk about the third most important phase of the game. Um, and that is not special teams, but it's refereeing. We'll get to that with my prediction. Sure to go wrong. I've got, I've got one for you. I've got one for you.
All right, JJ. So as I mentioned, this line opened at one and a half, leaked up to two in favor of the Kansas City Chiefs has come back down to one and a half in a lot of sports books, but according to DraftKings, it is in fact minus one and a half in favor of the Chiefs in Kansas City. Over and around this game is 48 and a half JJ final score prediction. So I'm, I'm, I am so hopeful. I'm so hopeful about this. I'm so confident in this team. They're different than we've seen them this time.
It could be different. I think it's a, um, that's one of our pod, you know, subtitles for a preview from a previous I'm ready to be heard again. Yeah. Right. Exactly. So it's like this is the bills have, we're the only team during the regular season in meaningful games to best this Chiefs recipe of mistake free football, causing other team to make mistakes and letting their refs push them over the goal line.
This, this game, I think is a chance for the bills to again put it out of the hands of the refs to put it in a situation where the, the, you know, helpful calls, which are real data points to, they are absolutely real, especially in the postseason, um, are not going to land at the feet of the Chiefs. Um, I'm saying bills 31 because again, the bills are good at scoring over 31 points, uh, over 30 points, 30 points or more, and the Chiefs have absolutely not.
They, I think they had one game where they got to 30, um, bills 31 Chiefs 24 go bills. The bills were the only team to score 30 this season against this Chiefs defense when they had their starters. And I mean, the Broncos game at the end of the season, so it not, not a comparison point. Um, that being said, if what holds true in our, our analysis is that these are the two teams are going to want to matriculate it and try to play mistake free football.
I see a lot of long drives, particularly hopefully for the Buffalo Bills offense. And I see just a limited amount of opportunities. I mean, it really could be a situation where each team is getting three possessions, right? Three series and a half. Um, unless again, turnovers factor in heavily here. Um, so I'm going to say bills, I'm going to say bills 24 Chiefs 20. Um, I just think limited opportunities, the familiarity with both of these coaching staffs have with what the other wants to do.
It lends itself to a very tense game. I think a very well played game, but ultimately a pretty low scoring game. So I've got the bills obviously winning, but I also have the under on the point total. Okay. All right. All right. What profits you got? All right. Well, so let's get to the referees. JJ over under one and a half sex by the Buffalo Bills. Ever turned by a late roughing the passer call from these officials. So you alluded to it.
Um, if you follow any of our socials, we have been spamming this narrative all week, attempting to gaslight the NFL officiating crew for this week into keeping that keeping their laundry in their pockets. But the Kansas City Chiefs JJ and 11 playoff appearances have benefited from the penalty disparity 10 times. They have had less penalties than 11. They have had less penalties 10 times 11 games than their opponent.
They have also benefited from seven, seven roughing the pass recalls and those 11 games, whereas their opponent has benefited from one. Wild to think about in the era of quote unquote, protecting the QBs, but the Kansas City Chiefs somehow always seem to draw a favorable roughing the pass recall and also seem to defer responsibilities to the possibility when they in due deed get a late head or rough the passer.
So JJ, that's my prop one and a half Buffalo Bill sex overturned by a roughing the passer call. So I'm just like, again, I'm being hopeful I'm going to hit under, I think maybe one because they're going to, they're probably going to get their due. It's whenever people are like, Oh, the narrative about the Chiefs get all the calls is like so bogus.
And like, sure, maybe it's just, it just happens to be a coincidence that all of the data points to like them getting, you know, in 20 roughing the passers over turning sacks, you know, the opponent gets 18 and they get two, like, but that just, that looks like a reasonable difference to me. That looks reportable in terms of, you know, statistical probability.
And so yeah, I'm going to say under, I think it's maybe, maybe one happens, but hopefully, I mean, if two happens, then you know, the fix is in. Yeah, I'm going to say, I'm going to say over, and there's a couple of reasons and none of them are related to conspiracy theories. One, the Chiefs play a lot of playoff home games. And the reality is, is that the home team just tends to statistically get the benefit of the call. It just is what it is.
It happens in every sport happens in baseball, basketball and football. Two, Patrick Mahomes, who is like, not just because he beats the bills, I just find him less and less likable every season. He plays this really snaky kind of like quarterback run game, and which he waits to the absolute last moment ducking behind an offensive Lion man or a wide receiver until he finally decides to hit the ground. And at that point as a defensive player, you're already in the tech leg motion, right?
But he absolutely stretches the limits of when a QB can go down and still draw that call. It's sleazy to me. I don't like it. It has shades of Kenny Pickett's college football at pit, fake slide to to bait some defensive linemen to hold up. I just hate it. I hate the way he approaches it, but it works. And until officials get on that train and understand that Mahomes is baiting this from a lot of teams and there's nothing the defensive player can do, I think ultimately it happens.
I and I could absolutely see it happening in this game. So I'm going to say over, I'm going to say two sacks get overturned because of roughing the passer. All right. I mean, let's let's speak about those sacks. If you have two sacks being overturned, my prop is the bills defense sacks Mahomes 1.5 times or more over under. I'm going to stand. I'm going to I'm going to take the under the bills just in the postseason have had zero zero ability to sack Patrick Mahomes.
They do it great in the regular season, but in the postseason, dude is like unsacrable for our squad for some reason. That being said, I could see Teran Johnson recording a sack. I could see Johnson shooting the gap like they like to use him a lot of times. I could see Milano even maybe getting one. But outside of that, I I'm so out on this edge group other than Rousseau. I have a hard time seeing someone in that traditional four defensive line set getting a sack.
I would love to be wrong, but this is the one thing that has proven true over the course of the season. The sack production has just been down for the defensive line. Well, and I think too, with Rousseau specifically, I like him as a player too. I think that's a good thing that the bills have him. I'm interested in residing him. He is not your premier pass rusher. He's not your TJ Watt. He's not your, you know, he's not the guy. He's not your Max Crosby, the two players I want to trade for.
Um, he's there to be an every down incredibly reliable run defender with an amazing length who tips balls at the line and then who occasionally has a burst where it's like, oh my gosh, like he just rocked that guy back on his heels and looped around for the sack of the sack strip fumble. Um, yeah, he's he's the her big to somebody else's TJ Watt on this line and the bills still don't have that guy. So I'm with you. I I'm going to hit the under on the sacks.
I wanted I want to stick take the over, but if they get to I'm standing by my narrative that one of the, at least one of them is overturned. So yeah, yeah, absolutely. All right, JJ, I got one more for you. Cole Bishop over under half an interception. They're going to test him. He's going to have the opportunity to make a play. Well, under under under under.
I'll say under because I just if this was a different team and not my homes, I think that that like, I feel like if Cole Bishop was playing this entire game, he played the you know, at least a half against the Ravens. Um, but if Cole was just playing this entire game, was able to prepare all week like a starter, I would say I could see him getting a interception against the Ravens or the Broncos or somebody else. I don't see him getting an interception in this one against my homes.
I just think that they're too careful. I think they are going to throw balls into his direction, but I just don't trust that his development as a rookie player is far enough along that he's like, it just seems he might drop an interception as far as I'm concerned, because like it's the kind of thing where like, I feel like having seen him play, he still looks like he's playing a little bit, hasn't it? He still looks like he's playing in his head, trying to remember his assignments.
Um, and that's not players that usually get interceptions. I'm going to say over because my heart is in this and Cole Bishop has been my, you know, my guy from the draft up until this moment. And there are two things I would love to see happen in this game. Can Coleman catch touchdown? Cole Bishop getting interception. Bills win the Super Bowl or bills go to the Super Bowl. That's what I want to see, man. That's what I want to see. Um, you brought up something interesting though.
Does the NFL just give the bills the Lombardi Trophy and cancel the Super Bowl for him in this game? No, no, no, no, absolutely not the whole thing that Washington offense and I have been hesitant to give Cliff, Cliff Kingsbury has flowers, but you know, now I'm starting to think that maybe having Kyler Murray, a QB who literally can't see over the line of scrimmage in Arizona to throw a deep ball, maybe had something to do with that. That maybe that was the problem.
Maybe it wasn't Cliff after all, but, um, I think Washington's, I don't want to get too far ahead of it. Washington's got a real offense with real burners. There are going to be a real problem for either the chiefs or the bills, whoever wins. And then dude, I know Josh is like shredded Vic Fangio defenses before, but that Philadelphia defense, they got speed, they got athleticism, they're brutal against the run. Jaylen Carter is a man amongst boys.
Not neither of the, anybody who is saying the winner of this AFC championship is going to be a cakewalk in the Super Bowl. They're not watching enough football. Those are two really good teams on the other side in the NFC. Yeah, I would agree with that. I think that, um, it's, uh, it's an interesting, it's interesting to see where we would be at the end of this weekend. Um, if the bill should advance, gosh, I don't know who I, who I fear more actually.
I think I prefer Washington because of the stomach dermatability against a rookie quarterback. Yeah. And that defense is playing punch and way above its weight class for sure. A lot of veteran guys that are stabilizing it. I will say another prediction, sure to go wrong if the bills win, uh, and they, and their opponent is Philly, I would say the spread on that is probably one and a half in favor of the bills.
And then if the commanders win in the bills, when I would say the bills are probably like a four and a half, five and a half point favor, maybe reason I don't want Philly to win if the bills win or Philly to win then the bills win. Um, is the Philadelphia Eagles are the only NFC team that hasn't beaten the bills in the Super Bowl. And that feels like just testing fate to be like, Oh, let's, let's go for the sweep guys. Let's sweep NFC. Yeah, like that would be really anxious about that.
I really would. Plus, plus the run game is shown to be something that the bills would really struggle to stop. Right. Right. We're talking dangerous, man. We're talking dangerous. We're getting way ahead of ourselves. We got to stop it right here. All right, y'all. Thanks for joining us today on this wonderful Saturday. Prior to the game game, get our game day as always, like, share and subscribe or ever get your pods. Google Apple Spotify, YouTube and as always, go bills.
Let's kick that thing out. Go Gãos. You