All right, Dan, welcome back to the Buffalo Bread podcast. We are staring at week 10 at a matchup with the Indianapolis Colts in Indianapolis. And the bills successfully closed out last weekend, a season sweep of the Miami Dolphins. They squished those fish. It was a little bit clencher than I think anybody wanted and or expected. And it was a much closer game than either of our predictions would have had it. But have had it been. But what are your thoughts and what's going on with you, sir?
Hang on. I'm right. So infrequently on this pod, I got a fact check something. Didn't I say this is going to be a three point game? Didn't I see like, say like 2724? I think I said like 2724. Maybe I'm reconstructing history to believe we both thought it'd be a blowout like me. No, no, no, no. It was you that thought it would be a blowout. I'm like, dude, this is their season. This is going to be a sweaty, sweaty game. And it was a sweaty, sweaty game. And glad the bills pulled it out.
Lots to talk about, I think, though, that should give us pause for concern or cause for concern, rather halfway through the season or more than halfway through the season now. And I think some of the roster moves that the bills made earlier on in the week, trying to fortify the D line kind of confirms what we all saw with our eyeballs as we watch them play the dolphins, which is the defense defensive line is not very good at this particular stage.
Gregor so having arguably an all pro season, and then no one else on that line at Oliver included is doing much of anything at this point. So I think a lot of good stuff to unpack JJ, but there are some real issues that are going to play the bills against better teams. Yeah, you're absolutely right. You did guess that it was going to be a 24 21 game three point win by the bills. So I'll give you that. I think it was going to be a two score blowout.
And in my defense had Keon Coleman pulled down that slant instead of letting it popping it up for an interception and had Josh Allen's touchdown run not got called back on the most obnoxious holding call I've ever seen in my entire life of watching. Not. Yeah, it was not a hold. I want to break that one down in a minute. But yeah, if it had those two things happen, they would have won by two touchdowns. So we both were right. That's amazing revisionist history. I need a win.
So well, here here here is where I think we can both celebrate a little bit. We both called it the moment Keon Coleman was on Jalen Ramsey. Josh went right to him. He went right to him. And it was just it was just so painful to watch that ball bounce right off of Keon's chest. Yes. And he was getting arms of a decrepit Jalen Ramsey. Yeah, that was my low point for the game. Honestly, just watching that happen. Oh, yeah.
Well, I was hard on Keon for that because I think it ultimately is his fault. It's his job to catch the ball. But I think that it's fair also to say like, hey, Josh Allen, you're throwing the ball eight yards. It doesn't have to go 97 miles per hour. I know. But like he really wanted it. It was it was a quick check down like he wanted to get it out as quickly as possible.
Yeah. And like so so I get it like this is this is why you would get a guy like Keon Coleman who's got a big body athletic receiver and he can catch those fastballs. Yeah, absolutely. So so yeah, I think that, you know, let's go right into the officiating was garbage. Terrible. What is this? I don't understand. I just don't understand. And then I think that there was like bad calls on both sides. But I think that the bills probably I would say the bills got more of the bad calls.
I know I'm a Homer, I'm no I'm a bills fan, but being as objective as I can, the fact that Taylor wrap got called for for unnecessary roughness when he when Rehm Moester clearly speared him with the crown of his helmet was one completely ridiculous call.
And then Dion Dawkins against chop Robinson on the on Josh Allen's not Josh Allen's touchdown run but the play prior literally completes a absolute textbook snatch trap where he grabs chop Robinson's hands uses his momentum against him and pulls him to the ground and then sits on him basically like I can't I would that's a clip I would use to teach somebody how to use somebody's momentum against them in the event that they're leaning too far into their rush. Absolutely. It was perfect.
It was perfect offensive line play. And then of course the Osiris Torrance hold was a complete garbage as well. He had both of his hands inside the chest plate he had his elbows locked in and what he just was blocking too good. You can grab somebody on the inside because that a defensive lineman anyone worth their salt on the defensive line should be able to break out of a grasp if it's on your chest plate.
It's only the I mean I guess it's against the letter of the law but in the in the NFL it's widely accepted that holds are called on people grasping or gripping outside of the frame kind of around the shoulders arms you know sides etc. Absolutely. The officiating JJ has been bad this season and for me it's skewed some of the penalty numbers that the bills have ranked up this season.
I you know penalties on and off in the McDermott era have been a problem for this bills team and we've harped on this pod before because that kind of stuff ultimately is going to cost you against better teams. Like part of the reason why the bills are having so many so many issues converting on third down on offense this year has to do with the down in distance that they are in third down which is about 1.7 yards longer than it was last season.
And I chalk a lot of that up to some of the penalties that they've been drawing here in key situations on offense. But it is also hard for me to put that on the coaching staff a lot of times because as we have seen the officiating has been atrocious in the NFL writ large but in bills games in particulars when we have seen these games play out fully. So I think the officiating is bad and it tied back to the narrative of how it impacts the bills.
If you're the bills I don't know what the coaching staff can tell these guys to do differently right. And that's I think the most frustrating part if you're at one bills drive and I know it's a frustrating part for us as a fan base is that what are you instructing Torrance to do differently in that situation. What are you telling Dawkins to do differently in that situation. Like these are atrocious calls that hurt your team.
But what's more is week to week that's not going to be the call that they're going to get. So prep your guys in technique and skill and scheme in a way that is going to be officiated inconsistently week in and week out. And that's a league wide problem right now. So it's hard for me to attribute the increase in penalties for the bills to anything else other than it's just been been a poorly officiated year.
I don't as much as I'd like to take shot at the coaching staff as I tend to do on the spot. It's not on the coaching. It's not on the preparation what they're teaching these guys. It's on the officials. Yeah, and you know, oftentimes I put those put it squarely at the feet of the actual players too. But in those in those few instances, I think that it was they were doing everything perfectly textbook to the way that it's it's coached and the way it should be taught.
And so yeah, it was that was garbage. The official is garbage. I think that the I actually think that the poyer hit because we saw Jordan poyer be called for things like that when he was a bill. He tends to come in hot.
It's you know, is pointed out by somebody in the Buffalo media recently that he the fact that he's losing a step and that he's so much slower now than he was a couple of years ago means he's always late to a play, which means he's always lined up to get some pretty nasty, nasty hits in, which is just going to result in more more penalties, I think.
Yeah, no, that's been called pretty consistently throughout the course of the season, like helmet on helmet, leading with leading with your helmet and the way that he did. Like that's always going to get flagged in it. It should be flagged, right? It should be flagged. JJ, outside of the officiating couple of things that I saw in the game that I thought were were solid. The defense did not have its best showing. And I think we're going to talk about this.
But what I really liked, really, really liked was Babich was changing up the pressure packages that he was styling up at the line of scrimmage for his DBs. So the Buffalo bills, JJ, in this game pressed Miami Dolphins wide receivers on almost half of the total snap count, which was more than double what they did in the first game. You and I have been saying that the Miami Dolphins, they want to beat you downfield. If you play that soft zone, they're going to get one.
They're going to get two eventually, right? Babich dialed up some great press looks for his outside DBs in this game. And it was interesting that Benford being out, he chose to go that high with Elam, who we know this is in his skill set. We know he's a press main corner guy. He went this way with Elam. And it was so interesting to see that differentiated skill set play out in the scheme of that way, because I thought it was a great addition.
It really did a good job in locking down these Miami wide receivers. It gave them, I think, a different wrinkle and a different look than they've seen from this bill's defense before. And dude, I was kind of here for it. If the bills had any kind of run defense, that could have been a near total and complete defensive domination by that team.
But unfortunately, their issues on the defensive line and their choice to continue to play light boxes and obvious rundown situations is something that teams are going to continue to pick on. I thought Babich did a great job, though, giving his putting his DBs, especially when an Elam in a position where he could be comfortable with the plays that were called, as opposed to relying on him to be like comfortable with the scheme. He just kind of met his players where he was at.
And I was really cool with that. Yeah, no, I think that the scheme was pretty good. I think that it was interesting because after the game, of course, the Dolphins looked like they ran all over the bills. And we've seen that year over year from this bill's defense and the scheme.
After the game, some of Terran Johnson's conversation or some of the feedback he gave to reporters was that that was the plan, that they were literally, they were just run on us, extend the game, extend your drives, take time, because they were basically saying, you're not going to hit, you know, Greek or Waddle over the top on us for 60 yards, which is the way they've played the Dolphins forever.
The Devon A-Chains going to have a Hall of Fame career based on playing the bills twice a year because they're just going to let him run into a light box and find creases on the edges and trust that their offense in those crunch times, their defense in those crunch times is going to stand up to the pressure and the Dolphins are going to fold, which has been a gamble that they've been, you know, they've been right on for what, like 17 or 15 of 17 attempts against this team.
Yeah, no. And listen, it's the way they tend to play a lot of run heavy teams to begin with, where I don't think it is ultimately going to be successful is against teams like Baltimore, against teams like Kansas City, against teams, I would argue, even like Houston with Joe Mix and now back in the mix. I think those teams have more general talent around them at all phases of the ball. I know Riek and Waddle are amazing, right? Everyone knows they're amazing.
But that offense of a lot of Miami stinks. They don't have great tight ends, right? Like there's a lot that that offense is lacking that the teams are going to be going up against in, I mean, I think it feels safe to say in January, because it looks like the bills are almost assured a wild card spot now. It's just not going to be as effective. So I trust in Babich. I trust in McDermott is the defensive coordinator.
I just feel like they've got to dial something up different against those teams that are so successful at running the ball and that have other ways that they can attack this Buffalo Bills defense. Well, the fact that if you're like out there and you're just like, oh, the Buffalo Bills can't stop the run at all, just pay attention to the way that they stuff the run in fourth and one, third and one goal line situations. They have it in their repertoire. They have run blitzes.
They have gap fill schemes where they spill linebackers into every available crease and make sure and make sure to stuff it down. It's by design that they there seems to be like four to six yards every single play available. Because like, you know, like we've been talking about the bills just let it happen. They just sort of, you know, they they stand back and they they don't stand back, but they depend on individual matchups or players splitting double teams to get run stuffs.
And the fact that at Oliver Greg Rousseau, you know, occasionally to Juan Jones, any of them ever have that show up is actually an outlier. It's not the design. The design would be actually having help in all those creases with linebackers, which they didn't don't ever plan for. So I think it's going to be frustrating. It's going to be annoying, but it's something that we're going to watch.
And you know, if they continues to, you know, play into the game script for the bills, the way they want to play it, essentially they're saying, you can run on us. We're going to try to score until you just won't be able to choose to run because you're too far behind. And that's when our defense is going to shine. And that's what we've seen in the bills blowouts of other teams.
It's they've gotten far enough ahead on the scoreboard that the other team has abandoned the run and become one dimensional. And that's where the bills defense absolutely eats. JJ, from one defense to the other, I was, you know, I posted this on threads and I posted this on our socials. I was very impressed with the back and forth of Joe Brady and Anthony Weaver in this game. And I know, listen, the Buffalo Bill scored 30 points.
I know people might think it's weird to laud a defensive coordinator whose defense gave up 30 points. But that it was so obvious to me that the Miami Dolphins had watched a lot of tape on what the bills like to do. They were ready for some of the key Josh Allen, Josh Allen boots and design QB runs that we haven't seen called a lot in the past couple of weeks, but Brady was dialing up.
And what I liked was Brady's response when Weaver and that that depleted Miami defense would take something away. Brady was able to dial up something that would free up another player. I mean, dude, over the past couple of weeks, this has been low key impressive. The Buffalo Bill screen game, the way they're using Shakira in the screen game in particular, the way that they're using starting to use Ray Davis and some of that quick out game out of the backfield.
Like it's it has been nice adjustments. And what's more is it's given Josh a lot more hot reads off of Blitz's. I thought we were was going to come in and blitz Josh a lot. And they did in the first half and Brady dialed up some really nice hot reads for Josh and that for in that first half in particular to where the dolphins had to reconsider their strategy and really dial it down and go into more of a zone type of coverage. I was very impressed with how Brady was countering Weaver.
And I thought we were called a really good game that third and three, I think it was in the first quarter in the red zone, design QB boot outside to Josh, they were just ready for it and they had it smothered. And that's not an easy play to counter that the Buffalo Bills like to run because they're so proficient at it and they've got an alien QB that's so natural at running it. But that might be defense as down as they were talent wise. They really did step up in some key situations.
The Bills like the Bills just made more plays and Josh just made more plays. That final touchdown to Quentin Morris in the end zone, including Mahomes dude, no one else can make that play. And you cannot script for that if you're a defensive coordinator and that's got to be the first most frustrating thing for Miami heading out of it. But I loved what Brady was doing, particularly in the screen game and some of these Blitz beaters JJ, what did you see from the offense?
Yeah, I mean, I thought that they they what they approached was I agree with you that we ever called an excellent defensive game and the Bills had to overcome with kind of exceptional individual efforts and they were able to do so. Yeah, the the Quentin Morris touchdown is absolutely just bonkers like Josh Allen is being tackled by three people and shot puts the ball to somebody he can't see who catches it, you know, for an easy touchdown. It was those sort of bananas.
But in general, what I saw was the Bills offensive line was doing their best with a pretty difficult match up when it came to the twist stunts simulated pressures and extra rushers. They were trying to keep Josh Allen clean and they did keep him clean for the most part for the throughout the game in the face of what I thought was an excellent pressure package and an excellent number of rushers at very key times. And so that was good.
And I thought, you know, like you had noticed the screen game amazing Khalil Shakir still amazing. Key on Coleman didn't get so much play, but I feel like he's coming along. I hope he's he's healthy for this next match up because it's it's it's a time than they when they need him. But yeah, I mean, I don't know, Josh Allen had to put on the cape again for this one. I think we can both agree.
It felt a lot like the Arizona Cardinals game week one where these things weren't necessarily going their way. They were struggling a little bit on defense to slow down the opponent. So they just had to, you know, rely on their super alien quarterback.
Yeah, I definitely picked up on some of that, particularly I will say towards the end of the game where it felt like weaver was really dialed in and listen, as good a game as Brady called the play calling on that final drive that ended with Beth Bass's game winning 61 yard field goal. I didn't love the timing of when they took the time. It was bad. It was really bad. Yeah. I mean, the dolphins at that point just dropped seven into coverage.
And there was nothing because they had been showing so many different looks throughout the course of the game. There's really nothing that Brady could dial up on that drive that was those working really well. The poyer penalty bails them out on one play. And then you've got Tyler Bass with just the most amazing redemptive kick in NFL history maybe right or at least in Buffalo Bills history in that moment.
Because if those two things don't happen, I think we're talking a lot about a really good game, a really good game script called by an offensive coordinator who again kind of fumbles the bag at the end of the game. And again, I'm happy the bills won and I'm optimistic. But if that's against the chiefs or a better team, like I really wonder if the outcome is going to be the same.
Yeah. And I think too that the the offensive, you know, productivity, you cannot, you cannot like ignore the fact that Javon Holland and Sealer were both out for this game. The bills shouldn't have had as much trouble as they did moving the ball in this team, given how terrible the Miami Dolphins pass rush has been and how weak they've been in coverage. Yeah, dude, I mean, just the final numbers on this game. Yards per attempt from Josh, six yards per attempt.
Like Josh has been great at attacking the intermediate parts of the field, but the dolphins were really, really clear about when they blitzed, we're going to we're going to man you up and we're going to man you up hard. And a lot of our wide receivers struggled to get separation, which has been the story of the season. It comes down to player execution.
And Brady again, did some really nice creative things, particularly in the run game and particularly with the screen game to kind of keep things moving and get things going. But to your point, it shouldn't be so easy for a depleted defense to take away so many of the things that you want to do. Again, we've recalled a great game. I thought Brady had the right counters.
Again, Tyler Bass, I think in more ways than one, bailed this team out on that last drive for a little bit of clock mismanagement. And then also, I think some some a lack of creativity and play calling to get things moving. Yeah, absolutely. But I mean, you can't you can't mess with the results, I think that, you know, offensively, they did what they needed to do to get this done.
And and I agree with you that the Tyler Bass redemption kick, it really like it kind of wipes away so many ills that he's, I think he's not what is he 10 for 10 in fourth quarter and game winning field goals at this point. That's feels like you pay attention to that stat. If he can keep that perfect, I think a missed extra point here and there is not the end of the world. If it's not the deciding factor in a game, it's notable that that is a regular season stat. Yeah. Oh, that's funny.
Yeah. Yeah, regular season stat. But yes, absolutely. No matter what, T-Bass, we are happy for you for sure. So listen, I think the result is the one that we wanted, the Miami Dolphins. I don't want to cross them off because like we saw what that offense could do. But I also think a lot of that was because of familiarity with the Buffalo Bills and they just knew what the bills were going to let them do.
I don't think the Dolphins, despite having some of that talent on offense, are going to make any kind of real run here at the end of the season. I do think their season is effectively over. So great job by the bills. It was the result we wanted. But again, continuing to see some trend lines in the run defense with the defensive line and also just with the ability of teams to cover our wide receivers that are going to be a problem as the schedule gets tougher again later on in the season.
Yeah, no doubt. No doubt. I did want to say one thing about the defensive line, kind of before we close out the Dolphins game and move on to the Colts preview. I was digging through some of the stats with the defensive line as we should expect. Greg Rousseau is the 18th best defensive end in the league in terms of pass rush win rate, off his speed to the QB. He's having an excellent pass rushing season, even if his sack numbers aren't doing great. I'll Jerry Hughes in his prime. But it matters.
When there's nothing else, that matters, right? And he's always been exceptional in run fits and still is remaining in the top of the league in terms of sealing the edge in the run and ending successful plays in the run when run directly at him. Even though he had some misses in this game when they were doubling him on the edge or running directly at him. That's something to note and pay attention to. DeKwan Jones, 7th best defensive tackle in terms of pass rush win rate.
And you'll notice an obvious miss in these stats. Those are the only ones that are notable. No Ed Oliver, no AJ Apanezza, two players who have at times been near the tops of the charts in pass rush win rate. Not seeing any pressure on Tua was really frustrating for me that entire game. And I think it's because teams basically double DeKwan Jones, they're leaving at Oliver one on one.
I think he's got something going on injury wise because his get off is like a step, a beat slower than it's been his entire career. And his hand fighting is not as violent. And we texted about this. When I rewatched the tape in the Alt 22, his hand fighting is not nearly as violent or impactful as it has been for his entire career. And I just don't understand what's happening with that. Yeah, I saw the same thing on the rewatch Liam Eichenberg.
I mean, when he was meshed up on Oliver just absolutely dominated him, moved him wherever he needed to to create whatever lane HN needed. Greg Rousseau to your point earlier, fourth in the league this season, JJ and quick pressure rate. Those are pressures. So QB hurries, hits or sacks that happened in 2.5 seconds or under.
That's exactly in a world where you play Tua twice a year where Joe Burrow is competition, Will Amara is getting the ball out quicker, where Mahomes is getting the ball out quicker. That's exactly the type of asset and weapon you want on the defensive line. For the rest of the performance from at Oliver down to your point is but really underwhelming this season.
And again, we said this after the Baltimore game, outside of Groot, the defensive line looks light, they look small, again, in certain matchups. And I think that is something ultimately that's going to come back to bite them later on in the season when they will begin some elite offensive lines, most notably Kansas City in a couple of weeks here. Yeah, absolutely. I'm worried about that.
I found while I was kind of digging through the stats to one interesting one, which is Javan Solomon has the sixth fastest sack in the season in terms of them keeping track of how fast from snap to quarterback on the ground. His sack earlier, I think it was week two or three, was the it still sits as the sixth fastest sack of any player of the season. That's this game though. He's like a pure speed edge rusher, right? Like I would expect that out of him.
Yeah, his development over the next couple of years has me really excited. It really does. I think he's going to be good. All right, man. Closing the books on another season of Finn's domination. I'm just really happy with where the bills landed on that one. And now we move into, I think, a winnable game, but one that's going to be sneaky, sweaty and the Indianapolis Colts. So the Indianapolis Colts JJ, yet another road came for the Buffalo Bills.
It feels like we're always on the road these days. The Colts JJ are sitting at four and five and have the distinction of being the only team this season and the fourth team in NFL history to have their first nine games decided by one possession. So this team is four and five, as I mentioned earlier, and all those games to set up by one possession.
The Buffalo Bills JJ are three and one in close games this season, which is a market improvement as we noted earlier in the year from some of their past performances here. So you've got two teams. They love to play close games. They're almost they're almost attracted to it. They don't know how to play any other type of game other than a close game. JJ, where do you want to start offense or defense for the bills?
Let's start bills offense versus the Colts defense because I have a lot of I have a lot of notes about the Colts defense. I think the Colts, if we're talking about the opponent, the Colts, the Colts team is more interesting to me. Their defense is more interesting to me than their offense. And it's funny because their defense is like very poorly rated across the board. But watching it, it's bad.
That's the thing is the statistics and kind of analytics would tell you that this is like an abysmal defense. I saw some a lot of redeeming things on individual plays. And I think that they the problem they have is they get they get roasted. They have a lot of busted plays and big 20 plus yard plays. But in like play and play out game script stuff, they they have it. I'm afraid. Okay, I'll phrase it this way.
I'm afraid the Colts defense is finally going to put it all together against the bills because that's the kind of thing is that they have talented. They have a handful of talented players. They tend to fly around and fly to the ball really well. They have the best forced fumble rate in the entire league. So like they turn the ball over on you.
They have some interesting splash play stuff, but they then will get absolutely destroyed, you know, on a on a deep, deep pass on a run play that goes for like 36 yards. And so I'm hopeful for the bills that this this continues that they get those big plays because some of the defensive splash plays that they are able to accomplish are very scary to me and some of their players are absolutely terrifying.
I think that some of their ratings and analytics have also been suppressed because de force Buckner was out for a good portion of the year and he is their best defense defensive player like bar none. Even with people like Julian Blackman, who I very, very much like, I think divorce Buckner is one of the best players at that position in the league, even in his kind of later age. Yeah, dude, I mean, their pressure rate is 14 percentage points better when when Buckner is on the field.
When he has not been playing this season, their pressure rate sinks down to 30%. When he's on, it's almost 45%. So I agree, I think that's going to make a difference because he's a player who if you're if you're an offensive coordinator, you're an offensive lineman, you always need to know where he is lining up in in the opposing team set. So he's going to be wanting to keep an eye on for sure. Then you've got Grover Stewart, who's his partner defensive tackle here in this cult scheme. I listen.
I'm the stats guy, I tend to believe in the numbers a little bit. I do think Buckner gives this team a boost for sure. But I think to your point earlier, this is a defense that cannot consistently force teams to matriculate down the field. That is the style of defense that teams play these days, they're going to force you to dink and dunk and work your way down until you make a mistake. The Indianapolis Cults are not good at that, right?
And as a result, I think this Buffalo Bill's offense is going to find ways to really work against them. And I think this is going to be a big game, depending on if Cooper can play or not. I think it's actually going to be a big game for whoever lines up in that, that traditional number two spot opposite him. Because the Indianapolis Cults have a really hard time guarding second and third options and tight ends as well, according to DVOA.
They don't rank any better than 19th in any of those metrics JJ. So if Cooper is out there while I'd like to see Cooper have his first big game as a Buffalo Bill, this could simply be another one where he is taking away coverage pressure from other guys on the field and letting dudes like Coleman, should he play Shakir and I'm still waiting for it, Kincaid to have bigger games and play a bigger role in the offense.
So I don't think while there are some names on this Cults defense, I don't think there has been enough that I have seen that tells me they can put it all together in this game. Sure. I think that's I mean, listen, Dan, I just think you're being incredibly disrespectful to a demo, yeah, I'd have a war a. Yes, who is a player they have. That's exactly what I was going for.
Yes, that level of disrespected was trying to smash on a, let's see, he is a fourth round pick from 2023 out of Northwestern, of course, 62 282, def, undersized defensive tackle. Yeah, I just, I just, yeah, I'm playing. I'm sorry, I'm sorry, Mr. Eddaboware. But what I will say is they have a lot to who out of UCLA, who I really like coming out in the draft. He's been solid. And he looks like he's he's putting it together a little bit.
They've quitty pay, who is an absolute beast is not necessarily maybe living up to his draft stock, but but I think still has, you know, some splash plays here and there. I think just Zaire Franklin is a stud. I think EJ speed is good in coverage, but can get washed out in the run as a linebacker. This is going to sound like I'm playing with, you know, some back of the roster guys again, but Grant Stewart. Have you seen this guy? He's got like the Palomalu hair.
Yeah, he's number 44 41. Yeah, 41 Grant Stewart. He might come in in three linebacker sets against the bills on the run. And actually, I do not like that matchup. I want them to stay in nickel when the bills run on them. Because what I saw from Grant Stewart is he is absolutely abysmal. If you pass it, Kincaid will like work him all day, if that's a matchup. But in the run game, he's got like, I think it's probably the Palomalu hair.
He's got this natural instinct to shoot into the gap and absolutely own anybody trying to like stretch plays to the edges, which is a problem when you have to force Buckner basically completely canceling the middle of the defense. Yeah, he's our Dorian Williams. He's an absolute missile in the run game for sure. And you want to you want to be able to take advantage with some of those pass out of heavy sets situations to keep the cults a little bit off balance.
I want to go back to your point about Kincaid because I got a question for you. Is that is this he is currently on pace JJ to have fewer yards and fewer receptions that he did last year. All right. We are now over the half way point of the season. Is there is this a scheme issue? Are people simply based on what you're seeing on film, dedicating a lot of resources to stopping him? Is the way they're using him? Like he feels like the piece that has not yet clicked for this offense.
I'm curious as to what you're seeing as to why. My answer is that they have unreliable outside wide receiver talents. So he goes to intermediate and deep level routes. He is one of their best and fastest route runners at double moves at seam balls at deep overs, which are all things that have not necessarily, especially in big moments and difficult games with really good pass rushes, all long developing plays that Josh Allen has not been had enough pocket time for.
They've been using Kinkade on all of those routes that they do not have a Alpha dog, a number one wide receiver to run because he has that receiving ability. And that's why you've seen you saw him in two games ago. You saw him catch that ball that ended up being the weird challenge fumble out of bounds situation along the right side line. That's the kind of route that they've been using him on. So it's definitely scheme. I don't think it's that Josh Allen is not finding him.
If they used Kinkade like the chiefs use Kelsey and he was his only existence in life was to be a check down safety valve for Josh Allen. He would probably be leading the tight ends in the league in receptions and yards right now. Yeah. His catch rate to your point is reflective of some of the more difficult high variance routes that he is running. I mean, I think he was targeted 10 times in that Miami game. He only yanked in four of those catches. So I do think that's a piece of it.
I'm just, I'm waiting. And this is why I hope Cooper is healthy and I hope he develops in this offense because I think like he has opened up things quickly for Coleman, he's really going to open up things for Kinkade too. And I think that's an option that bills are going to need down the road because his presence is a point of focus for an opposing defense really does matter in a lot of different sets that the bills are trying to run. So I just want to see him have a hundred year game.
I just want to. Me too. I want him to like to really step up into his, his birthright as the one of the top tight ends of the league, you know, for the next five to 10 years. Absolutely. Absolutely. So you want to flip it to the bills defense against a Joe Flacco led Indianapolis attack? Yeah. I do want to just like, let me wax on the defense for the Colts just one more moment.
I will say that they, the bills offense of line has to come snapped up because not because necessarily they have like an exceptional pass rush. They're kind of middle of the pack, like 14, 15 and pass rush win, win right across the board as a team. The Colts are, but the bills do need to come snapped up because they send some curious and confusing stunts. They have some really fast linebackers and they have safeties who, who will come in on pass rush.
And so it's the kind of thing that like, if they don't have their protection set set, right? The thing it reminds me of a little bit is the, the matchup against Houston and every single, it's felt like every play Josh Allen had somebody in his lap when he was trying to complete a pass. That's the kind of thing that the Colts can do to kind of a less of an effect, but they're still kind of, they're still, they play the same way. I guess if that makes sense.
They're not as good at it as the Texans defense, but they, they're capable of it. And so that's something I'm a little bit worried about. Yeah. No, I think, I think it's definitely something worthwhile to be concerned. And dude, while their pressure rate is not great again, going back to the point, Buckner's been out quite a few games for them this season. He makes a massive difference for them. This is also a team JJ that's pretty good against the run because of that defensive line.
They're number five in rush stop efficiency this season. The bills are number six and overall rushing efficiency. So the run game for the bills could be strength on strength against the Cindy and apples called Stephens too. All right. You're right. Flip it. Yeah. Let's talk about the, the corpse of Joe Flackel. Let's talk about that. It's amazing. They're still rolling with him after the absolute turd he laid last week, but they're good to do it. They're good to do it.
It's turd versus turd really because the alternative would be to go back to Richardson who has a 44% completion rate. Can I tell you though? And because I, when I was prepping for this pot, I didn't know if they were going to go back to Richardson or not. So I watched some of Richardson's tape, particularly from his last game, the one that ultimately got him benched. There are throws he's missing. And I expect that he's played what, 10 total games in his career so far.
Dude, other throws he makes, you see the potential, particularly in his deep ball. And there were a lot of drops in that game that are look ugly on film too. When you rewatch them, that didn't help him either. It just seems like this weird concoction of a toxic mix of he's a rarely raw developing QB that's high variance and he's got a lot of other high variance guys like Josh Downs around him too.
And I just don't know if Flacco is the guy for this team that's going to write that shit because Josh Downs is still going to drop a ball. Pittman's still going to drop a ball. Like Flacco can throw the same deep ball that Richardson does and these wide receivers are still very likely to not come down with it. They've got one of the lowest catch rates in the league.
So if Flacco was coming in and that catch rate was improving, you could say that Richardson doesn't throw a catchable ball and it was right for them to sit him. But that hasn't been the case. The catch rate is what it is when both of these guys are in. I'm thinking it's a more of a personnel problem and you don't have the right pieces around a young developing QB. Oh, I mean, that's air.
I just I also watched Richardson tape and I think that it's the unreliable wide receivers can make a huge difference. We know that from seeing the difference of Josh Allen's first year in the league, then Josh Allen with stuff on digs, right? Like even with Josh Brown, John Brown and Cole Beasley, massive difference just to get some professional wide receivers. Yeah, somebody who's going to be in the right spot and be reliably catching the ball. So I guess I get that.
I think I worry a little bit too, I worry a little bit because we're seeing tape, right? Like that's all we can see for a team to make that substantial of a change from first round top of the round pick to a veteran. There has to be more to it than just the rookie bumps on the field, right? Like I worry about the coaching staff down there. I've paid attention to some of their media availability. What they've been talking about is like maturity, professionalism.
We need them to sit and kind of learn a little bit. And so those are kinds of things that I think that you don't just say if your rookie quarterback or your second year quarterback is just throwing a bunch of picks or being too over aggressive or not making the right check down. I wonder about his fit generally, how things are going. There might be other contextual reasons that he's been benched beyond just his play on the field. Yeah, no. I'm open to all those things.
I think if you're a franchise like the Colts where for years Ballard has done a really good job of getting mostly everything else right on that squad, except the QB. You know what I mean? I think it's, I think it doesn't bode well. If the piece that you have needed to get right for so long when you finally take a big crack at it, you miss this badly or you develop this poorly. I don't think it bodes well.
For Ballard's longevity and I don't think it bodes well for Stikin's longevity either in this coaching staff and like, listen, the scheme that they want to run is the scheme that they ran and filly with Jalen Hertz, which is we're going to run the ball and then we're going to bomb it deep. Right. We're going to do a little bit of play action and we're absolutely going to try to take the roof off of a defense for you or against you.
And Richardson can deliver on that, but that is not the best scheme to develop a really raw QB who has accuracy issues, touch issues, um, pre snap read issues. Like the scheme fit feels like it is not core, but not QB friendly when it comes to Richardson. The personnel fit doesn't feel like it's all there either. Like I get it.
It sounds like there is stuff that's going on in the locker room, but this is a, this would be a hard environment for any young QB to succeed in because the scheme is so dependent on hitting those explosive plays over and over and over again, and there's not much, much else layered into it.
So I guess circling back to how this is going to impact the bill's defense, this is an offense come hell or high water that is going to want to test the deep parts of the field, which means this is going to be, it's very important for wrap and Hamlin to each do their one 11th so that that doesn't get exploited. And actually this is a game JJ. We've criticized Amar Hamlin. He's had it reason reasonably good year, but he plays a little bit soft, a little bit nonaggressively.
Actually I think this is a game where some of his caution with the way he reads routes is going to be warranted because you know the Colts are going to try to take a multitude of deep shops down the field off of their run game. Yeah, I think that, you know, they really, the thing that they hit the hardest that's probably their best skill with flakko is their play action deep passing game. Flakko still got a freaking cannon.
He might be a statue back there, but he can absolutely drop one in a basket over a shoulder for like 50 or 60 yards. And so I think that the unreliability of his wide receivers is the biggest flaw that that causes. And I think too that this offensive line for the Colts is solid but not spectacular. And so if the bills can have a spectacular pass rush for one game, flakko is toast. Like he does not move well. He gets gobbled up.
We saw him go down a number of times this past week against the Vikings. The Vikings were blitzing him like crazy and it was affecting it was affecting him very well like for the Vikings favor. So I think there's opportunities there.
You know, I my biggest worry, honestly, Dan in this game is Jonathan Taylor, because I know he's later in his career, but the bills have seen him a few times and when they back what was it 20 21 when he went for 32 carries for 185 yards and four touchdowns and three receptions for an additional 20 yards in the touchdown, five touchdown day, like absolutely own this team. And I know it's a completely different team three years later.
Different season, different makeup, but that was a humbling, humbling experience as a Bill's fan. Yeah. And Taylor, you know, it's been interesting first four weeks of the season, he looked very spry. They were hitting a lot of outside runs with him and he was averaging over, I think seven yards a carry on his outside runs. But since week four, he slowed down and he's only averaging about four yards a carry now. And I'm looking at NFL next gen stats.
He has one of the slowest speeds to the line of scrimmage at 8.6 miles an hour in the league right now. He's just not hitting holes at this stage of the season very quickly. It could be injury. It could be wear and tear, but he is legitimately a step slower than he was three years ago when the bill saw him the last time. So I'm worried about him too. And just the bill's propensity to again, want to give up yards in the run game.
This could be a game where Jonathan Taylor is effective simply because of the then the Ben but don't break scheme that the Buffalo bills are going to play. Yeah. And I, you know, and that's, that's part of the worry too is just the fact that the bill scheme as, as mentioned by, you know, by the bills players themselves invites, you know, invites to run every, every snap.
The offensive line, you know, Bernard Raymond looks like he's going to come back from their left tackle, come back from his concussion protocol. Quentin Nelson is consummate professional, definitely slowing down. I've seen him give up some pressures that he wouldn't have given up last year even. So I think he's on the decline in his career. Tanner Bordellini, who we both really, really appreciated coming out of what Wisconsin and the draft Wisconsin.
Yeah. He had to step in because they're, they're starting center, Ryan Kelly, who's also an excellent player went down early in the semester, early in the season. Tanner Bordellini had to step right in and has, he had a kind of a rocky start with snaps and with some penalties, the first two games, but has since been like exceptionally quick on the uptake. So I think that their weakness, if there is a strong weaknesses on the right guard and right tackle with Dalton Tucker and Braden Smith.
So them being on the right side, again, this has to be a Greg or so game. Come on, Greg or so. They've been, the bills have been playing him on the left side more exclusively and this is an opportunity for him to get in a flow against some inferior competition against this team. Oh yeah. Yep. To your point, they've been playing him on the left side by a two to one difference, left or left to right and a snap count difference.
But this is a game where you've got to line them up on the right hand side. Absolutely and take advantage of that matchup because he is your best pressure guy. And this is a game that it feels like if you could get home one or two times on Flacco, could change the dynamic of the game for sure. Yeah. Well, that's the thing is Flacco under pressure will throw interceptions. Always.
He's that's his like go to is he is so aggressive with the pass that he will take, you know, very poor, he'll take poor chances to avoid a sack. Yeah. And listen, I'm ready to move on a prediction. Sure to go wrong if you are.
Because I think I think the Colts as we have said in the lead up to this have played a lot of close games, but depending on the version of Joe Flacco we get, particularly early in this game, I think turnovers could play a real excuse me, a really make a really big difference. And this could be a game that if the bills do it right, could quickly go in their favor, very quickly go in their favor. So JJ, let's talk about final score.
Right now, the bills are sitting as a four point favorite on the road against the Colts over under for this game is 47 points. What do you got for final score? So I think it's going to be 2717 bills and I'm hitting the under because I do believe in this bill's defense. I think that they're going to, you know, just as a quick note about the injury report. They will not have, of course, DeWon Carter, DeWayne Smoot. They've got some injuries in the center.
They, we didn't really talk about it too much, but signing Jordan Phillips and Quentin Jefferson back to the squad after being cut by other teams is not, it's definitely not a cure all. I know there are some bills mafia out there really Jordan Phillips is back. I don't know who you are, what you've been watching. He's kind of a shell of the player that was impactful when he came when he was cut by Miami and signed by the bills four or five years ago.
So, you know, I don't know if that's going to be helpful, but I do think that this bill's defense, specifically Christian Benford, Terrell Bernard and Russell Douglas, they have what it takes to shut down the pass. And if they can like really lock down the pass and man coverage and use some run blitzes even out of nickel, they'll be able to stop Jonathan Taylor.
And that's, that's what I think you're pointing to is if there's a situation where they force the game onto Joe Flacco's shoulders and they're in pass first and pass only situations because the bills are able to get up on the scoreboard a little bit, it might get really ugly for the Colts and I have the bills winning by two scores. Yeah, no, I think that's that's valid. So I've got the bills 28 and I've got the Colts 14.
I do think this is going to be and this is going to be a couple of score when for the bills prediction sure to go wrong. Watch it be the sweatiest game in history. But here's the other thing too. Josh Allen in a dome throughout his career has had some of his best games. And I know, listen, Buffalo bills, they play outside. We've had this debate at nauseam on this podcast and every version. Should they put a retractable roof on the new stadium at Highmark? Should they put a dome on it? Whatever.
So this is a team JJ based on roster build that is its most effective when weather is not not having a massive impact. Josh Allen in perfect conditions on turf inside a dome, I think is going to be pretty deadly. It's going to be a lot of fun to watch. So I've got the bills winning by two scores as well. 28 14. So it's funny you mentioned Josh Allen deadly.
I've actually got Josh Allen moving into the NFL lead of games with two passing and one rushing touchdowns, surpassing Cam, Cam Newton in this game. I don't know if that's I'm just declaring that as a prediction. I don't think that the prop, there's no way to prop that. I don't think. Nice. Nice. I'd like to see it happen in this game.
I think this is a hard matchup to have it done though, because as you mentioned the speed of the linebackers, the kind of very capable nature of this defensive line, I do think that's going to be a tough one. I mean, we saw the Miami Dolphin shut it down last week. So I think it could be a little bit of a taller, but I'd love to see it happen in this game. I do have a prop for you and it's on the Colt side of things over under Anthony Richardson getting a snap in this game.
So Anthony Richardson over under half a snap, which is basically do you think he plays? Because I think there is a script where Flacco throws three interceptions in the first half potentially, and now there's a script where he could look good as well. But there is a script where he turns the ball over and the Colts go back to Richardson in this game.
Yeah, I mean, I'm going to take the under because I think that it'd be too wishful of me to think that Joe Flacco is going to play so poorly that he'll get yanked because I don't think that this coaching staff wants to do that at all. I don't think they want to bounce back and forth. They don't want to do the Dolphins playbook from Flores where it was like Fits Patrick to a two of Fits. Yeah, I don't think they want to do that.
I think that they're smart enough to recognize that we've already sat the Rook. We're going to keep them down unless it's absolute panic mode. So I think I'm going to take under, I'm going to take under, but I'm going to hedge and say unless, you know, I can't do this. So I'm just thinking out loud unless Joe Flacco gets sacked and hurt, which I think is a likelihood. Yeah, that could that could have as well. Of course, you never want to wish it on anybody. Right. It could happen.
Yeah, I think it's it's certainly a reasonable prediction. I'm going to take the over because I think I I flak oh played so bad and like you can game plan for Joe Flacco at the stage of his career and Shane Stikin. I think he's a good coach, but that scheme that's deep. That scheme has two gears, run the ball and then throw a deep off play action. Right. And if you can plan for that with Flacco's obvious limitations, I think as a defense, you could be relatively successful.
So I wouldn't be shocked if they go back to Richardson and then they stick with Richardson for the rest of the season as I think they should. Yeah, I think they should and see what they got. Yeah, that's true. Yeah, you got a you got a prop for me. Yeah, I've got I do have one prop for you. It is Von Miller over under half a sack under under like I know one on this defensive line looks good except for Greg or so. I'm wish casting to come back.
No one like I'm just saying no, no one on this defensive line has been playing well except Greg or so. Dequan Jones is just eating a bunch of double teams at this point and at Oliver's getting smashed by Liam Ikenberg. Yeah, for Dequan Jones, who's who's having a who's having a good year, not like an exceptional year like he was before he went out with the injury last year, but he's having a good solid year. It's just nobody else is also stepping up.
So he's struggling to get anything going at all because he's just they're sending every all that interior help in his direction. Yeah, absolutely. I'm just going to go under because I always I always take the Von Miller under it's always a solid bet for me. I'm taking the over again. Maybe that's just wishful, but you know, I'd like to see him come back on and then look look like he's able to continue with fresh legs what he started the first three weeks of the season.
Amazing against a statue of a quarterback. I think that's the bigger thing is if there's if there's anyone that Von Miller can sack at the stage in his career, it's somebody older than him. Flacco is older than everybody. So yeah, cool. All right, man. Well, we'll see how it plays out as always. So for all of you listening at home, like share and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts, YouTube next week, America. Get ready. Apple and Spotify and as always go bills. Go bills. Go bills.