Welcome back to Buffalo Bread Podcast. This is your week six episode. We are going to recap the jumble that was Bill's Jags in London and look forward to tomorrow evening's game against the New Jersey Giants, I should say. Brian DeBull's return to his hometown as the head coach of that that ill ill forsaken team this this year they've had a bit of a struggle. Speaking of struggles, how are you doing Dan? You know, I took the loss, I think in stride this
week, which I was very proud of myself for. Because we've lived through games like that, I think before where I mean, listen, props to the the Jags and my called weather defensive coordinator for rolling out a game plan that seemed to kind of confuse Josh for two and a half three quarters of the game. Although I think it was more about the bills being jet lag than anything else. I wasn't upset about the loss, but the injuries, the injuries that keep mounting on
that would have been historically paced defense. That has me a little bit worried JJ even heading into a game where we're facing a depleted Giants unit. Yes, our first team offense is still healthy, but it is it is impossible to overstate how the injuries we have suffered in the last two weeks, particularly the losses of Trey white against Miami. And then this past weekend in London with Milano and Jones going down for an indefinite amount of time, it's impossible to overstate how
big of losses those particular guys being out are. But we can we get where do you want to start do you want to I mean, do you want to break down the game against the Jags because this is my Twitter link summary of that game. The bills were asleep for three and a half quarters, and it made the Jags look a lot better than they were. And I like Trevor Lawrence and I think he's a good QB, but he threw one TD pass and had two turnovers and that was his quote unquote best game of the
year. So even against the sleeping bills, overall bills effort, the Jags don't only one by five. And I think we play that game 99 99 or 100 times the bills one 99 of those games. Well, and if it was a real home game, it counted as a home game on the bill schedule, which is just criminal. If that was a real home game in Orchard Park on the bill's surface, we might still have
Matt Milano and Daikwondo Jones and probably or most likely would have won that game. The fact that the NFL use that game as a experiment to see what, you know, the outcome on the field would be for a team that had two weeks in London versus a team that flew in for London. It's just that so upsetting to me that they're like doing that with actual game results that are going to have
merit on the end of the year playoff seating. Yeah, you're talking about that viral clip of Gondal that was released after the game where they said they quote unquote wanted to see if there was any kind of competitive advantage by having a team in a different time zone. Yep. Two straight weeks, you know, ahead of playing another opponent. So I think you got think you got the answer you're looking for, Rod. I think there is in fact a competitive advantage.
Well, and I think the two I don't want to like, I don't want to just blame it all on the time zone and jet lag and whatever like there's you know, we're blaming on the refs too. Yeah. Yeah, that's all right. Lay it squarely at the feet of that that ref crew. And that that referee crew
is notorious. I think they've done other bills games and decided them for the other team, you know, against the bill that I'm pretty sure that they might have been the referee crew that decided the game for the bills against the Chargers two years ago, with like a phantom, you know, passenger ferrets call in Bill's favor that gave them a fresh set of downs inside the red zone. And so yeah, they they decide the fate and outcome of too many games and I did not enjoy that at all.
Yeah, I mean, my readers digest thumbnail sketch of that game is that whether it's jet lag, whether it's, you know, other things going on, whether it's the emotional
impact of losing Milano and Declan Jones, the bills lost the trenches in that game. They, the defense held on admirably to, you know, five point only a five point loss after having lost, arguably, one of the best middle linebackers and matchup linebackers the entire league Matt Milano and all pro, and then losing Declan Jones, who was on pace with his current metrics to have a better season than any season Aaron Donald has ever had is in his entire life as an interior
pass rusher. Just like I'll say that again, and that's a good enough sample size to project, right? Like if he were to continue the season, yeah, if he was to continue on that pace or even slightly less impressive pace, he still would have had better pressure performance season than any Aaron Donald has ever had. So that's just amazing, you know, and he's a he's a native to my to my current town. And, you know, they're very proud of him here. Hopefully that that's not,
you know, completely season ending. I think that that's the one that has more of a likelihood of him potentially making it back for the playoffs. Because Sean McDermott was pretty, pretty coy about that. In his commentary, you know, after those injuries took place for both Milano and Declan Jones, he wasn't willing to write the month for the rest of the
season, which I am so hopeful that that's true. I'm not banking on it. It's sort of the, you know, hope for the best prepare for the worst situation in the bill's defense to have to move on. But yeah, I think we've seen games like this before, where the Buffalo Bills lose the line of scrimmage, Josh Allen gets too much pressure on him too quickly. And they can't really get to the reads or plays that they really want to do. And they fail, you know, the offense looks like
it's a little stunted and defense, you know, admirably tries to keep the minute. But at the end, it was a little too little too late. And I hope that that's not the story. I mean, that's the story we've talked about time and time again, is the bills and ability to establish the run, losing line of scrimmage, too much early pressure on Josh Allen, offense stalls, like that's seen that too many years and too many games. But again, the bills tend to recover pretty well from
those. I don't know what it is about the Jacksonville Jaguars. I know it's not just London, but they end up there like the kryptonite to the bills. And I think Trevor Lawrence is a decent quarterback. I think he got a lot more credit for that win than he deserved. Because I really think his defense brought him across the finish line over there in London. I'm just happy the boys are back in OP for this one. And really looking forward to the giants coming to town.
Same. Yeah. And I've, you know, we're recording this here the day before the bills will face the giants in prime time on Sunday Night Football. And as a result, I have broken my rule of before we record I usually don't listen to any other pre or post game analysis. But I've listened to a fair amount and I was listening for a couple of things. I think what you said is
is completely accurate. The bills and we have seen this time and again, it is easy to knock them off of what we think their game plan is, which is establishing the run, establishing play action for Josh, and then opening things up later on in the game. You know, and and a lot of I will say I was hurtened by a lot of the discourse around Dorsey, because after watching that game, I'm like, I'm like, I'm like, Dave all had this game where we lost nine six to the Jags and everyone
was like fire day ball. I'm like, now we've got another loss to the Jags and the fire Dorsey chance are gonna ring. But I was heartened by a lot of the analysis. And I think I think people are moving off of blaming Dorsey scheme other than like the actual other than like the the total drags of Bill's mafia who are like ski like no one knows no one knows what none of those people
could intelligently tell you what Dorsey scheme is. Yeah. But I think what is fair to criticize Dorsey about, and we have seen this as a pattern over his first season and a half season and a quarter season and a third what have you of being a offensive coordinator is that his play sequencing tends to chunk up in moments where Josh is facing pressure. Now Josh is a great QB against the Blitz for his career. He's got a 118 passer rating against the Blitz, you know what I mean? That is
I mean that is well above league average. But in this game, the Blitz was particularly effective in the first three quarters against Josh. And I think in moments like that we have said this, there are moments where if you sequence it right, you can confuse Josh for maybe 10, maybe 11 plays, but he's going to figure it out. What I look where I put some blame on Dorsey in this game is his play sequencing, because he was not setting up Josh to appropriately diagnose what
was going on. There was a series and we saw this there was a lengthy amount of time where Dorsey called 21 straight plays with Josh out of shotgun. And for the game 90% of Josh's snaps were taken in shotgun, well above what their average had been because we had made no in the pregame going over this that Josh had been playing under center a lot more, which would made play action very,
very effective. And even in games where they have struggled to establish the run early, those play action shots with Josh lining up under center have still been effective. And Dorsey almost went entirely away from it because he didn't trust that Josh would have the time with his back turned to the offensive line or back turned to the line that Josh would have the time to deliver on some of those play action shots. But it ended up playing into Jackson
ville's hands because they wanted Josh in shotgun. They didn't want to have to deal with play action. And they wanted Dorsey to abandon the run, which he did. I think Cook only had like 13 total touches in that game or something like that. He was negative five yards. Negative five yards rushing, right? He made some hay in the passing game. But yeah. So so what what is interesting about Dorsey? It's not a scheme, but it is how he reacts
in game to what other DCs are throwing at him. And he is heading into a game this week against a Wink Martindale coach defense that blitzes at a clip of about 51% on the season. The only team that blitzes more than the New York Giants are the Minnesota Vikings who have fully acknowledged we don't have the DBs to break up passes or stop you from completing a pass. So we're just going to rush seven guys at you and and we're going to continue to like three or three and four yard
dink and dunks. So that is the only team out rushing Wink Martindale. The Jags and Mike Caldwell designed a rush package where they blitz Josh 46% of the time and Josh did not perform in a great clip against with it. Now his on target throw percentage was still 90%. So Josh was finding guys and getting the ball out and getting the ball on target against the blitz in this game, but it was playing right into the scheme that the Jags wanted because it was either quick hitters that
led to quick tackles and no yak or it led to pass breakups or past deflections, right? So this is this is where Dorsey now needs to grow. He needs to figure out how to use some other pieces in this offensive alignment in moments like that and not simply revert to these patterns that we that were also predictable for opposing teams last year. 21 straight shotgun snaps lends itself to
predictability that is ultimately going to play into the opposing defense's hands, right? And no matter how talented this offense is, Dorsey has to fight those impulses and come up with ways to sequence plays that allow Josh to adapt and assimilate to what the defense is throwing at him, but also continues to keep other guys involved consistently. You and I said this was going to be adult and concave breakout game because the Jags have not been able to defend opposing tight
ends with any any measure of success this season. I believe they're bottom third in the league when it comes to opposing tight end success rate against them, right? And can Kate had three catches in this game, I want to say? Yeah, it was not good. Yeah. So so Dorsey there, Dorsey has the tools in his toolkit with the players that they have on the roster, the depth that is in that past catcher room. He needs to stop reverting to this comfort zone that he has developed with his play calling
sequence when things are not going according to plan. Dorsey needs to come up with a better intellectual counter punch if the bills are going to have sustained success when teams look to change it up the way that the Jags did. Well, I do he had two catches for 19 yards. And jeez, I said he was going to go over 50. I'm more on right now. I mean, you're not the more on I think maybe you know, and I don't want to say Dorsey is the more on but I do think you're
right. I think that Dorsey is too afraid of having Josh Shalons back to the defense when the line is clearly losing the battle on early pressure. And so he just goes away from everything under center. I get it. He doesn't want, you know, the most prized possession in probably, you know, most of football to get slammed from behind, because the interior is not holding up for the, you know, or Spencer Brown can't handle Josh Allen for more than one and a half seconds.
So, you know, I think it's always in the trenches that it's always where you can diagnose it. And but I think that Ken Dorsey needs to be a little bit more brave and allow Josh Allen to go under center because in the game, I think, you know, when they did do play action, the few times they did even without a rushing attack to really sell it. Josh Allen was like four for five with 100
yards, no interceptions and one of his touchdowns like that play still worked. And so hopefully they're able to through film study this week, get some rest and understand that, you know, that is still an effective, you know, mechanization for this offense without, even if there's there's pressure coming and we know there's going to be pressure coming if the Giants. And so hopefully the bills have a better counter punch and actually, you know, was surprised
at times that they kept Josh Allen in the shotgun with just five man protection. And Cook or Damien Harris or somebody back there as a personal protector. Really, I think the better counter punch for Jaguar's defensive pressure was to bring bring it in tight, go heavy, bring an extra
tight end, you know, like load up the box, because that's what they did. They just they beat the bills with Matt, they always had more people in the box, the bills couldn't establish the run, the short area passing lanes were not getting there, and they were sending more people than they could they could block daring Josh Allen to burn them over the top. And we just got unlucky
on a lot of those throws. And I'll just say this one thing, you know, for that we're not doing play by play stuff, but that stuff on digs the interception that that 118 pound five foot nine DB got on him unacceptable. You cannot go up and contested catch situation like that and not come down with that ball as the offense. I don't care who you are and like especially not the one of the best wide receivers in the league that was disgraceful. Yep. Yeah, no, I agree. I agree.
And Josh, I mean, do his credit, he took he took the blame for the interception. He's like, I could have led I could have led digs a little bit more right. It was a pass. Yeah, target. Yep. I mean, it was where it was needed to be if you're going to take that shot. And I don't even hate Josh taking that shot. Nope, because you have Stefan digs down there in single man coverage like digs with a five foot 11 hundred and exactly. He just got out jumped out jumped and out grabbed
right for that ball. Well, and if he landed on the ground with both of his hands on that ball, even if that dude had the ball in his chest, it's the offense's ball. Like, yep, if they're both possessing when they hit the ground, it's always the runner. Yep. Yep. Always, always. I love that I've got you doing baseball analogies. Who would have thought who would have thought when we first started this this potting relationship and your loathing of baseball. I've grown so much. You
have it's really it's really great. It's heartening to see. I mean, JJ, I think the other story coming out of this for me was the injuries, right? Yes. And it you know, we said this and it sucks to be right. And we're right so little so so little on this pod that when we are, I think correct about something, we should definitely walk it out a little bit. But we said in the beginning of the season, the thing that might keep the bills from being contenders was the age of the defense.
Because you can't take players that have had an injury history in recent years and hope that all of a sudden as they get a year older, they will also somehow get healthier. And unfortunately, we have seen that play out over the last two weeks to where we are now down Trey White, down to Juan Jones, down Matt Milano. And then some other guys on the defense are banged up, Christian Benford, who who notably his season last year ended, you know, after or was stunted
his growth last season, after suffering a early season injury. They've just got guys that have had a hard time, I think staying on the field. And now we're in an interesting crossroads because the bills, who according to over the cap, when you look at their roster construction, they spend less than everybody else on current rookie contracts, they spend the most percentage of their cap on mid tier veteran contracts. And they also have a QB who is in the last year of a sweetheart deal
before his his cap number really starts to explode. So when you invest so little in your rookie class, and you invest so much in what we have called floor raising veterans, you open up a window for success that again, is wondrous as a bill's fan to be in. But unfortunately, this is the risk that you run. Now, the bills are in the unfortunate place of having to put some of these limited rookie con players on rookie contracts out there to see what they can do. Kayer Kayer Elam, who did not
have a great game against the Jags, is going to be getting meaningful reps now. Dorian Williams, who was maybe the most confusing draft pick this last past season for the bills, is going to get some meaningful playing time as well. He's probably going to compete with Dodson Specter. And I would think AJ Klein for some meaningful snaps to replace Milano. And you've got some of these veteran contracts like Tim Settle, who's played well, but maybe not played as well as everyone thought he
would. Now they need to step up and you need a guy like AJ Epinezza, who played absolutely out of his mind against the Jags, right? So good. Now you need him to step up as well. So the bills are in a place in a place that they haven't been in a while, where they've got to rely on some of these younger players, these rookie contracted players to step up and do something for the squad. So
it's hard to project what that's going to look like moving forward. But I think one thing for sure that is going to happen is that the bills are now going to be forced to try to make some sort of move, a move that is not Josh Norman, right, who was recently signed to the practice squad, they're going to be forced to make some sort of move at the trade deadline, looking at like a Minnesota or looking at the roster of like a Denver to see if there is anyone, maybe a
Chicago, see if there's anyone that can pick up off the scrap heap. JJ, the injuries on this defense are going to create a lot of volatility for the performance we're likely to see on the field week in and week out. But where are the areas you think these injuries leave the bills the most vulnerable right now?
I think that for me, it's really the the middle linebackers. The Mavalano hole is the biggest hole because I think that if you have Benford and Dane Jackson, and the defensive line, if the if the rest of the defensive line stays healthy and has a nice rotation, and you have Dane Jackson
and Christian, Christian Benford, you can win that way. It's sort of like, you know, how Minnesota says we don't care who our corners are, we're going to blitz the crap out of your every, that's the same concept I could I think the bills can win with them, especially Sean McDermott with how aggressive he is, he can win with subpar outside corners if they're playing strong within the scheme and in the correct areas when they need to be in the zone. If this pass rush continues
the way it has. But there will be a gap. I think the only the thing that made it all work together was that Terrell Bernard and Matt Milano were so rangy that there was no easy answers when the pass rush is getting home to dump something off over the middle. And that I think is the biggest hole right now because I do not trust, I do not trust Dodson, I do not trust Klein, I don't trust Dorian Williams in coverage. For some reason, they did not feel even with Milano leaving,
they did not feel that bringing their third safety Taylor wrap into the game. Any snaps was necessary, which I found that was very, very, because he's been an in the box safety before with the rhythms and played very well. And so the question of like, they really wanted to have Dodson and Williams try to cover tight ends and running backs out of the backfield. Instead of Taylor wrap. So I was I don't know if he was dealing with an injury or something's going on there,
but that was surprising to me. Yeah, that was surprising. But yeah, that's that's the gap. I think I think that if it's also the cheapest problem to fix, I think that there's young, there's probably a young matchup linebacker athletic linebacker somewhere that might be a bit of an upgrade for the bills, certainly over AJ Klein or Terrell Dodson, that they could find
for one of these teams. Yeah. And that's probably a good segue JJ. I don't know about you have had my fill of the recapping the Jags game, just a just another disgusting loss where the bills beat themselves and weren't really beat by a superior opponent. But with all the injuries that they took in London over the weekend, I think it begs the question, what is out there on the
market? So DB is probably going to be a priority for this team, if they choose to make a move. And like you said, middle linebacker, I feel like along the defensive line, they're they're content to
stand pat. And I got to tell you, as I was coming up with my, as I was coming up with my notes for this game, I'm like, do the do the bills just double down, right, and send like a conditional third round pick to Minnesota for DeNeal Hunter, and they fig, then they figure out his bridge contract, or do they send a fourth round pick to Washington for Chase Young, and do they just
double down on the pass rush? I mean, Steve Spagnola won two Super Bowls with no defensive back of note, and simply having Jason Pierpaugh and Michael Strahan constantly beat the crap out of Tom Brady, right? So it can be done. So there was a part of me that's like, do the bills just get cute and just double down on the thing that right now has been working the best for them, which is the pass rush. But then I backed off that because that's just not being style. That's not
being style. Yeah, I know I don't I don't see it because it's the kind of thing where like he's not going to saddle himself with any players whose contract he doesn't think he's going to be able to afford going forward. Correct. And that's the that's the part that I think is it builds off you a buckle up, you're not going to see a trade for like, probably Patrick's Certain, right? Like, Oh, my God, you're not gonna see there's like two ones and they could never afford to sign them
after the after his contract his rookie contract is up. So you're not going to see another von Miller caliber. I don't think anyone's caliber von Miller, but I'm not going to see a big time upgrade anywhere before the trade deadline. But you could expect to see somebody who lost their starting job to a draft pick, but has experienced the linebacker before the under 30. Oh, you could see they're likely fourth, fifth, sixth rounders who play I think that one of the players for
Houston fits that bill. There's a couple of linebackers around the league who could help improve the bills. There's a couple of you know, fliers you could take on some CBs. I think there's a Panther CB, whose names escaping me who's out there that could be a good, good candidate. Yeah, there's a there's a couple of guys like that. I've got a I've got a few on my list here. My my dream scenario situation would be pass or tan, but he's got a 16 million dollar
fifth year option. And there's no way the bills are going to be able to ink him long term. And I've seen a lot of bills fans be like, we've got to go get pass or tan. But the Broncos have made it pretty clear that whatever whatever the hell it is, they're going to let Sean Peyton build there over the next 10 years. Sir tan is going to be a part of that package. So yanking
another starting caliber DB from a team right now is going to be very difficult. Because you've got teams like Minnesota that are in active are in a competitive rebuild, as they say, but don't have any DBs of note. You know, so you're probably looking at a depth option should Benford go down again, bringing in someone that can pick up the system relatively quickly, and could and could be a nice, be a nice sort of replacement level player. If in fact, you don't trust Kyrie,
Lowe, like Elon played 90% of the snaps against the Jags. But Jammarcus Ingram started to get a lot of those fourth quarter snaps. So an Ingram is great. He's got a he's one of those like scrap peep undrafted free agent types that the bills love to make their hay with and coach up. But if you're going to make this run deep into the postseason, as we all think this team's window dictates they can do, you're going to need someone who's a little bit elevated above a
Jammarcus Ingram. So a guy that sticks out to me is Jalen Johnson, the 2022nd round draft pickout of Chicago, right? That's that's who I'm thinking of not Carolina, Chicago. Yeah, I was like, are you talking about JC Horne? I think JC Horne is injured for the 15th straight game or something like that. Well, Jalen Johnson is the yeah, he's probably my top, you know, top dream candidate of that kind of ilk where it's like player who's highly directed or has some reputation, but has
been like a breakout star. Correct. And he's he's fifth round pick that's replaced him in the lineup recently. So he's had a hamstring issue. Yeah, he's been he's been out since week three. So and listen, he is he's expressed an interest in wanting to stay in Chicago, Chicago's front office for whatever it's worth says they would like him there. But if Bean calls and he's like, how do you guys feel about it? You guys, I'll give you guys a fourth or a fifth for Jalen Johnson
and we'll call it good. I don't think they're going to turn turn down draft capital. And he's been like one career interception, right? But he's a dude who plays really good coverage. He's got great hip fluidity. We'll see how he's going to come back this week, we'll see how he's doing with that that hamstring injury. But he's someone who has played in schemes that are very similar to what McDermott would like to run. Another guy that kind of sticks out to me who could be available
is Jordan Hicks, the middle linebacker from Minnesota. Now Minnesota, competitive rebuild there, this is a team that is fully rebooting, and they're going to be looking to to duff some contracts here. So Hicks is still on a really affordable contract. He's played reasonably well. He is not going to give you the the coverage chops that Milano is. But I don't know who can, right? I mean, Matt Milano really is one of one when it comes to a lot of that stuff.
It's like Milano and Fred Warner, you know what I mean? The two maybe the two best cover linebackers in the league. So so but what you get with Hicks is someone who if you're not definitely better than Dodson and upgrade from Klein, who's basically a statue back there at this point. But he Hicks gives you enough coverage ability to do what you want to do schematically, which
is run nickel. The bills have run nickel 91% of their defensive snaps this season, 91%. And that's because as you so so elegantly stated, Milano and Bernard are so rangy, they give they give McDermott that luxury to not have to play base against clear run situations. Well, and I think it's not just that they're so rangy. It's also that it's the bills play a four to Taran Johnson safeties or CBs, right? Like, it's a four to then then Taran Johnson, whatever the hell you want to call him.
And then the rest of the defensive backfield because that is a Swiss Army knife. Because of how he's not a huge player, but how aggressive he is fitting the run and how instinctive he is with it. He's got he's got the body of a CB and the mind and instincts of a linebacker. And that's the greatest advantage the bills have for why they played nickel so much as they have to run Johnson back there. And so, um, yeah, I can see that I could see Devin White from Tampa Bay.
Yeah, I thought he's expensive. He's expensive. He's asked to be traded. But that team is also playing really well right now. Tampa Bay has gotten no incentive to give up one of their best players. But I love Devin White. I bet on him in that COVID Super Bowl to win when Super Bowl MVP and he should have. He had a monster game that game. Yeah, freaking Tom Brady sticking it to me again. Freakin Tom Brady, freaking Tom Brady. So I mean, but I think long story short is other
than guys like Jalen Johnson, Jordan Hicks. If you want to look at the scrap heap that it will be Denver, Jettison a lot, Jettison a lot of their their their personnel, there's not going to be a lot out there that are going to make a difference at a position of need for the bills. And then most importantly, a player of the bills can afford even on a pro rated contract, according to over the cap, they've only got about 2.1 million in cap space right now. And that can get a get eaten very,
very easily by a Patrick Sertan contract, even if it is pro rated. So the bills are going to be bargain shopping. But being probably is feeling some urgency to act a little bit aggressively. If nothing else, you are approaching week six, you have 12 more weeks of the season left, even if you feel good in that building about Dorian Williams picking it up. And even though all
indications would tell us that they don't feel this way. But even if you feel like you can now coach up Kyrie Elam because you have no choice at 12 weeks, 12 weeks and the playoffs guys are just going to get hurt. So you need to do something on the trade market to to bolster the depth that a lot of these vulnerable positions. Man, how fun, how fun would it be though if being was just like, F it, we're going to rush, we're going to rush three guys and our three guys are going to be
the best, right? And he gets chased young and Neil Hunter, and he's just rolling that whole set out. And he throws Brian Burns into from Carolina, because that's I would love Brian burns, right. They have like on the train blocks. So yeah, I know it's just like the kind of thing where
you got it. He has to do I think he has to do something depth wise, because I believe this builds defense as it was playing the first four weeks, five weeks, the first four weeks before they lost Trey White, that that defense downgraded two rungs is still probably top three defense entering the playoffs with all playoff teams, right? Like they were they were on an incredibly
meteoric rise as a defense. And I think that we've seen the proof, you know, pre pre injuries, we've seen the proof that Sean McDermott has something special going on with the way he coaches them and the way that he schemes and then calls plays against offenses, he shuts people down after the first drive or so of success. It's been an incredible showing and I hope it continues even with the absences because I do think that we're kind of these are these are pipe dreams.
We we're not going to see any top tier trades. I don't think it's going to be depth. It's not. They just can't afford it. Yeah. Like they value their draft capital too much. I mean, look at the times that they have traded number one picks. It was for Josh Allen. And it was for or Stefan Diggs. And I think that's it, right? Other than like these low, like I'll give you a one for your one type of thing, like they never want to find themselves in a first round deficit.
They always want to pick some somewhere in the first round. So Patrick Sertan is going to take multiple first round picks to pry from Denver. And he's a great player and it'd be amazing with that that particular defense. But looking at the long view is being as so good at doing, he's got to turn over a defensive line. Like there's only one guy signed on the roster next year. So he's going to need draft picks in order to do that, because the bills are going to be up
against the cap again next year. So it's not going to be a splash move. But maybe the bills can do something on the market that'll help bolster their depth and bring in some guys. I love Jalen Johnson. I know his stats are not great. But I've watched a little bit of his film in preparation for this. I love the way he I love the way he shadows routes. He's very good at jumping routes. He doesn't have a lot of past deflections. His ball skills aren't great, but he's very sticky
in coverage. And he just he plays with a chip on his shoulder that I think would fit this unit in a great way. So yeah, go throw Chicago a fifth round pick and see what they'll do with it. You know what I mean? Well, I think to, you know, seeing Kyrie Lym against the Jaguars, you know, he I think a lot of people watching the game, it wasn't as bad as it all looked. It looked like he was the sole problem and reason that the Jaguars were able to make anything happen. He was a
little bit closer in some plays. He was missing some help on other plays that when he gave up a couple of completions to Calvin Riddley, he actually was probably playing his technique. It's just Mike Hyde or Jordan Poyer was late to cover. That happened a lot. Yeah. Poyer was shadowing his shadowing his side of the field. That happened a lot. Having watched a lot of
this finish your thought on film. But I think we got to talk about Poyer. Yeah. Yeah. So like, yeah, having watched a lot of this defense, you know, you get to you start to see what the concepts are. Even if you don't know what play is called. And there were a few times where I was like, oof, there's a safety who's probably his job is to keep leverage over the top on Kyrie
Elam's coverage, who is who is missing their assignment or coming late downhill. So no, no, I listen, it looked it looked Elam looked pretty bad on the broadcast when you can see it on the broadcast how bad a DB looks six or seven yards of separation. Yeah, it's saying something which is crazy, which is absolutely nutty for someone with his athleticism and speed to be giving
up that kind of cushion on on his coverage. He's his confidence wasn't there, right? And McDermott insinuated to some extent that Elam wasn't ready to play like it's always next man up, you always got to be ready to play. So we tell people, but he's been a healthy scratch. He hasn't played meaningful football since the playoffs last season. So I get it. But I mean, he's been in
mothballs for the last four weeks. So and that's the thing is like, I'm usually one to come down pretty hard on a player when they they're an fellow player and they have a piss poor effort. Him like that, like Elam appeared to have. But I will say it was a weird circumstance. He probably wasn't expecting to get into the game. Maybe he didn't prepare like a starter and a lesson he
needed to learn is what that looks like on tape. That's fair. Yeah, what that looks like on tape when you take it out of gear and practice because you don't think you'll ever get in. And so I would like to see Kyrie, this probably isn't the test next week's probably not the test,
but it's likely he's going to get snaps for a little while, right? Like, even if it's just some here and there and relief of danger and Christian Benford, you know, sprinkled in, and there's going to be opportunities for him and hope that he takes that terrible game in London
and uses it as a as a learning point to prepare a little bit better. But yeah, like I said, the news that he could look amazing, he could play every snap as outside corner against the giants, and people could be singing his praises might get an interception, probably not off Tyrone Tarot Taylor, but but he could, you know, get past brickups, he could look real sticky in
coverage, but I think it's also because the talent of that offense is not very good. And so I would like to see Kyrie, you know, again on the field against top tier competition, somebody who's as good of a route runner as Calvin Ridley and see how he fares with a week worth of preparation knowing he's a starter. Yeah, me too. And listen,
dude, we've been asking for this, like we've been like, where's Elam, where's Elam? So we'll see, again, 12 weeks left in the season after this game against the giants, we will see if this first round picked with this immense talent can be coached up by this unit, be coached up by the staff and really kind of improve his draft position was not a fluke that he was not just some sort of panic pick after McDuffie was picked by the by the chiefs, which again is probably the guy the
bills really wanted. But yeah, yeah. So yeah, but real quick, before we move on to the Giants pregame, Jordan Poyer really stood out to me for not great reasons in this game. And I'm going to preface this by saying Jordan Poyer is maybe other than Josh Allen and Stefan Diggs, my favorite player of this this bill, this bills era that we are in. He's an absolute warrior. It feels like every week he's dealing with an injury. And yet he still straps it up and he is out there for this
team. He's an emotional leader. He is an on the field leader for this unit. Like Jordan Poyer, like in my for my money, should never have to buy a drink for himself and Buffalo for everything he's done for that team. All that all that being said, I think he is approaching a point with some of the injuries that he has battled to where he is trying to cope like a lot of a lot of older veterans do with how to attack his role when his body is failing him. Like Jordan Poyer is one of
the best open field tacklers at the safety position that the NFL has known. And yet every angle he seems to take on routes, every coverage that he he shadows seems to be wrong. And it's not because he all of a sudden forgot how to play football and forgot what angle he needs to approach attack a lot. I think it's because his body is starting to fail him in ways that he wasn't anticipating. So Poyer and McDermott and that team, they're going to have to make some adjustments
in the role that he is playing. He is still gangbusters and run defense, like you put Poyer in the box. And I think this is maybe why we weren't seeing wrap in the box too much. We saw a lot of Poyer in the box once Maloud went out, you know, the bills are just trying to figure some stuff out. But he played about 10% of his snaps in the box Poyer did. And he was great.
He was absolutely great. And being one of the few bills that could shut down ETN, who otherwise had a massive game against this substandard bills rush defense. The Poyer question is going to be an interesting one, because as they're now flooded in that backfield with youth and an experience, they're going to have to lean on the
roof of that defense and hide in Poyer even more than they have before. And I just, I don't know that Poyer's body is going to allow him to do it at this particular stage in his career. Well, and I think too, and if people, if this is heresy to us talking about Poyer at the end of his career, then so be it. The bills said all that they needed to say by not offering him anything other than a mid to lower tier starter money contract on a one, is it a one year? I
think it's a one year. I mean, it's a two year, but they can get out of it after this year if they want to. Yeah. So one year with guarantees, two year two, it's like a year by year contract. They the market wasn't there because I think the rest of the NFL know is what the bills also knew, which is that he is a declining player, not because he doesn't have the spirit or the know how, but because his he's had so many injuries and he's played through so much. And like you said,
I think warrior is a perfect word. Total for his game. But you know, time is undefeated. And the game is a brutal, it's a brutal sport. And he is, you know, six foot seven, you know, 240 to 50 pounds of pure muscle, he's, he's, he's going to wear it a different ring than like a Josh Allen. And so, and he plays such a physical brand of football to he brings it every single snap. And I think what we're seeing, I think you're right, I think we're
seeing a decline. I think there's still a possibility he could change his game. I mean, I remember people talking about at rate being washed. And then he played four more seasons and went to two more pro bowls, because he just changed the way he played. He played a little bit more like Gretzky and was where the puck was going to be, as opposed to being a missile towards the spot it was at. Correct, correct. I mean, people have been trying to retire Harrison Smith from this
league for the past like four years, right? And he's still out there kicking. So, yeah, no, it and employer make no mistake is one of the smartest guys on either side of the ball when he takes the field. He's got to know this about himself that coaching staff has to see this happening in real time. I'm very interested to see, I don't know if the Giants game will be a good measuring stick for this or not. But I'm very interested to see as we line up a stretch of opponents that have
substandard passing games. I am very interested to see over the next three weeks, if we see an adjustment to Poyer's role or how Poyer is approaching the game. Because the mistakes that he made, the mistackles, the bad angles, you doubly cannot afford that now with a lot of the youth and an experience, not just staying that DB room, but also hitting the middle of the field as well. The spine of that defense is now very, very vulnerable. And that's where they're going to
need Poyer and hide to really step up. So it's going to be interesting to see that adjustment over the next couple of weeks. And that adjustment over the next couple of weeks, JJ, we'll start tomorrow with our prime time game against the New Jersey Giants. The segway, the segways are back, my friend. They are back. I'm feeling it. I am feeling these segment switches. All right, good for me. All right, cool. So let's talk a little bit about the upcoming game against the
Giants here. So I got some numbers for you, JJ, as I always do just some quick numbers, just some quick points of comparison here, I've been leaning heavy on DVO a over the past couple of weeks, I'm gonna switch it up a little bit, I'm going to hit EPA. All right, so this is expected points added. So here's what you have in our breakdown side by side comparison, you are Buffalo Bills now sitting at three and two, third in passing offense EPA with point two seven points per
dropback, which is pretty good. Only the I want to say only the chiefs and the dolphins are better at this point. Crazy still about the chiefs because that team just cannot put points up on the board. But they're they're expected points added every time a home touches the balls insane. Rushing offense, even after that last like a luster performance against the Jags, fourth in overall EPA per rush, passing defense, we're third in the league, rushing defense,
our weak spot as we have noted all year, 23rd in the league. Yep, you're New Jersey Giants, JJ, I'm going to preface this by saying they're not as good as the Buffalo Bills are, which is the
understatement of the world. Right, they're just they're just not good in a lot of different ways right now, sadly for for a boy Brian table, passing offense 30th out of 32 teams rushing offense 27th, though in fairness, their offensive line has been dinged up, and they haven't had say quant Barkley for any consistent stretch, passing defense 28th in the league in EPA, and then rushing defense, I am feeling a James Cook bounce back game 30th out of 32 teams in
rushing EPA. Only the Denver Broncos, only the Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers are worse and they're rushing defense EPA. Well, and I think you need to also maybe correct the statistics for the Denver Broncos rushing defense, because the what was it the dolphins put 380 yards on them
or something. So yeah, no kidding. So that can skew some numbers. It's, it's, there's a lot of things I think the biggest statistics this week is the Buffalo Bills are the best team in the league at at sacking opposing opposing quarterbacks per person like their their sacrate per per pass attempt is the highest the and their interception rate per pass is the highest. The giants have the worst allowed sex per pass rate and the worst quantity of interceptions per pass. And so it's
just like it seems like a perfect storm. But after the Jags game where I was so bullish on the bills going over there, flying across being 16 hours of you know, without sleep or whatever it was on Friday night that they did and then trying to catch up and all this stuff. After it's so bullish, I'm not about to say like this is going to be an absolute slaughter. But everything every single
metric we can look at describes what should be an absolute slaughter. In you know, I know we're kind of over the game in London, but that Jaguar team statistically was a better match for the bills, you know, was about that level of a match for the bills could squeak out a win if they played a perfect game and cause some errors for the bill. So this Giants team is this Giants team is pretty abysmal. And the biggest thing for the Giants is people look at you know how terrible
their offense is they haven't scored a touchdown in the first half one time this season. On offense. On offense. Yeah, they've had one total touchdown. It was that pick six against Miami last week. Yes, that's it. That's their only first half touchdown was a defensive touchdown. And you know, people pointed at like this is God awful. It's also worth noting that they are missing their left tackle their center and now I think their right tackle as well. So they're preferred
three of their five preferred offensive line starters are out. And Andrew Thomas their left tackle is probably one of the top three best left tackles in the entire NFL. And so it's it's not nothing to be missing that much beep up front. And so they're losing the line of scrimmage. And as we always say, it starts in the trenches. If you don't have, you know, the line of scrimmage, you don't have anything. Correct. I think your let down for Giants fans
of which there are many in this area. This where I live in the Southern tier is Giants country or was until Josh Allen was drafted, then weirdly it started flipping and there's a lot more bills flags. The bandwagon is strong here. But sadly for Giants fans, it's you know, they've lost a lot of talent. And they expected the defense which was pretty solid last year to show up and help carry some of the, you know, offensive woes early in the season. And the defense also has been absent.
They've been playing spirited football, and not bringing the kind of juice that you'd expect them to bring. Right. I mean, it's so I mean, this is the stat that that'll say it all. They blitz, as we said earlier in the pot at a rate of 51%, second highest in the league, their success rate in getting pressure and sacks on the QB. So QB hits QB hurries or sacks, their success rate when they blitz is 29th in the league. And that's because they don't have DBs that are have the
ability to play on an island against opposing wide receivers and tight ends. You've seen Wink kind of change it up a little bit over the past couple of weeks. That long TD that Tyree Kill had was actually Wink rushing three and dropping eight, something he never does, never does. But but even Martindale is starting to acknowledge that with the lack of talent they have in that cornerback room, they just can't leave those guys on an island constantly defending the
multitude of weapons that are being rolled out against them every week. And the bills while not healthy and defense are rolling out a mostly healthy offense this week. So it listen, any given Sunday, any team can beat another team. So there is always a chance that despite the matchup on paper, the bills lose this game, right? There's very, there's very like two years ago, Jacksonville Jaguar vibes to this game, where we're both like, ah, there's no way,
right? There's no way. But I would be I would, I would go on the pod next week and tell you the bill season is over if they lose to the giants this weekend, any meaningful way. Like, I mean, like you said, this is a team that is not I don't believe they've hit double digits in the first half of any game they've played in this year so far. They've had one defensive touchdown,
one total score in the first half of all their games. And the only time the offense looked even like a modicum of what it looked like last year was in a desperation second half against the Arizona Cardinals in week two. They can't protect the QB Daniel Jones will be out this week.
So we get a Tarad Taylor potential revenge game coming to Buffalo. All right. But we know what Taylor is he's not going to take shots downfield, which you could argue this is where the bills are most vulnerable, given the injuries that they're facing and the poor, poor your issues that we've talked about. And also to there's no guarantee that this offensive line is going to keep him upright enough against this bill's pass rush long enough to to even take those types of shots. So
we know the type of game that the Taylor is going to roll out there. You know, the question becomes, do the Giants just play keep away like Barkley might play this game? Does does Taylor dink and dunk his way down the field? Barkley bust a couple? And do they just keep Allen on the sidelines like the Jags did by dominating time possession? Maybe. But that strategy takes winning up front in the trenches. And that is something that I do not believe the Giants will have the ability to do.
And I think this game for whatever, whatever trauma we might still be experiencing from the Bangles game where we got absolutely worked by their backup offensive line last season, I just don't think it's the same thing. I don't think it's the same thing. This is a different defensive line they're playing under with a different style, a different type of ferocity. And this Giants offensive offensive line has been a get right game for defensive lines that have
been struggling to sack the QB. The Miami Dolphins who had a total of seven sacks going into their game with the Giants had seven in their game against the Giants last week. You know, Daniel Jones has been sacked 29 times this season. Like he is on pace to be sacked close to 100 times this
year. It's absolutely insane. Absolutely insane. And I think that the thing about that that's, you know, that Bill's fans, if you're like salivating or going down to Caesar Sportsbook and placing a bet on Bill's getting 12 sacks, I'd say just hold on one second, because Daniel Jones is also notorious for not noticing pressure, not sensing pressure and holding the ball way too long. That's, Tarad Taylor holds the ball too long, but he is way more escapable than Daniel
Jones, I think. So even that this late stage of his career. So I would say that he's a great player. So I would expect the bills are going to get some decent pressure, but I don't see the bills getting more than probably six sacks. Yeah, still a six sack game would be delightful. It would be. It would be. So I mean, the numbers in the matchup so heavily favor the bills right now, I believe the over under on this game is like 41 points, and the bills are 14 and a half
point favorite. So is there a world where the Giants win? Yes. To me, of course. And to me, here's what that world looks like. Josh throws three picks or turns the ball over multiple times, which he hasn't done since week one. The Giants play keep away and they keep Josh and
that offense off the field. They keep them in what teams seem to do, which is arms length deficits, seven points, 10 points, three points, they keep the bills at arms length deficit, and they don't do not allow that offense to get into any kind of real rhythm. That to me is the and then the pressure packages that Martindale has working at a clip that is
better than currently 29th percent and or 29th 29th in the league. That to me is the scenario where it works Dexter Lawrence could make some hay in the middle of that line against Mitch Morris, Conor McGovern and Osiris Torrance. But outside of and Kavon Tibido, who's still kind of figuring it out as a situational guy might might make some sacks. I don't know. Like his pressure rate is so low, he's got four sacks, but that's kind of deceiving. He's not winning a lot.
His past rush win rate is bottom tier in the league. And his pressure rate is like single digits. Like, yeah, I get he's got four sacks, but they're not doing any of the things that you would need to do consistently against Josh and this offensive line to get them out of rhythm. But to me, if the Giants win, that's how they win. The more likely scenario here is that the bills wouldn't walk away. And this is a get right game for them after that absolute turd they laid in London.
I like I like the bills to win this game and clean up their turds. They don't tend to stack losses either. I think that they're the best team in the league in terms of their win rate coming off of a loss since John McDermott became the coach. Correct. They he he is a is, you know, a magnificent wizard with like the blame game and laying out the film when his team underperforms and really lighting fires on their guys, you know, tush to get going. Yeah, absolutely. This this will not be
an 11 penalty performance for the bills this week. Unless that officiating crew comes swimming across the ocean and does it. I hope not. Never let them officiate another game. I'm not a big I'm not a big blame the rough sky, but they're terrible. Those are terrible. Those are terrible. All right. Predictions. Yes, let's do it. All right. Let's talk final score. I I usually get in trouble with this one, because whenever I've picked a big number for the bills,
not only have they underachieved, but they have lost that game. I think Tennessee Titans game where Josh slipped on that fourth and won the only time in his career he has slipped. And I think it's because I said the bills are with that game like 33 to three. So all right, here it is. Here's here's what I'm saying. 28, 7. Okay, this one 28, 7 bills one.
And I think the seven that the Giants get is like some weird like Jalen Hyatt catches like a 50 yard like a like a takes a ball like that he catches five yards from the line of scrimmage and takes it like 50 something like that something weird like that. Doreen Williams misses a tackle and hybrakes one. So I think that I think Seyquan Barkley plays and I think the absence of Milano and DeKwan Jones has felt a little bit. I think the bills still have a strong handle on this game.
But I do think there's a capacity for this game to become a Seyquan Barkley, you know, return return show. And we do know that Dabel has some creative kind of run looks and things that he's gonna heat this is a desperate team. He's down too many starters, he's overpowered so much. I could see Dabel coming up with some unique kind of run looks and putting Doreen Williams or
somebody, you know, a new starter in there in a blender of knowing where to go with the fit. So I could see maybe Seyquan Barkley if he comes back and looks you know, healthy, having a big game against the bills 31 14 bills win control it all the way. But I think that they get run all over. Yeah, no, I would agree with that. I got a I got a sneaking suspicion that McDermott wants to put Dabel down hard in this game. Like there was some there was some dirt when he left and like,
yeah, different stuff about there. What's a hard man to work for and all this. Yeah, well, and then us city it's are like, Oh, well, we shouldn't let Dabel walk out. We should have given a McDermott's job. Right. I think McDermott wants to put Dabel down so freaking hard in this game. I don't know what idiots you're talking about. Definitely wasn't me. I've never done it wasn't us. Yeah, we never uttered that. No, I never thought Dabel was capable of
being as good of a leader of men as McDermott is. No, this is true. We have been consistent on that point for sure. Yeah, for as much as we love what Dabel did for this team. That is good. Prop bets. I like where you're at with with total sacks for the bills. So I'm going to put the over under it five and a half. Okay. So that's a devastating game under normal circumstances. But the only time Jones has been sacked five times or less this season was against Arizona.
Oh, geez. Yeah, it's it. So I'm going to put the over under right there at five and a half. And I'm over here over. I'm over. I'm over. I think this is a listen, I don't it could get gruesome. So I don't want to throw like a huge number out there. But I think it's it's going to be over five and a half. Yeah, I think it's going to be six. I don't think it's more than six. Because again, the tie rod Taylor factor there. This bill's defensive line, even without day, Juan Jones is
super nasty. I think von Miller was a little bit disappointed. He only had a 20 pitch count last week. And I think he's he's kind of raring to get a little bit more. So I see that and I can see Greg Russo coming back hopefully healthy, and able to push off that foot injury he had and and go back to his strong form. So yeah, I'm over to I've got a prop for you and it is Khalil Shakur, four and a
half receptions under. All right, I'm going under. Yeah, no. And here's why. I think this, we said it last week, this had to be the last week against the Jags had to be the Deontay Hardy, Dalton Kincaid breakout games. I love what Shakir brings to the table. And I love that they are trying so hard to keep him involved for the late round draft pick that he was. But at some point, you've got to take these shots to Hardy that everyone thought I'd be taking. And at some point,
you've got to open up the middle of the field again with Kincaid. Davis has reestablished himself in the in the target share cycle. We know that digs is going to get fed no matter who he's on. I think digs has a big game this game against the Giants. So it digs and Davis occupying the space that they're at. Shakir doesn't give them any real differentiation against those two where Kincaid gives them the middle of the field better than Shakir can. And Hardy gives them the
deep shots better than Shakir can. And I'm thinking that this is a game against this defense where Dorsey is going to want to establish those guys finally. They are some of the unused tools in his toolkit that he has to really balance out this offense. So I'm going to say under, but not because I don't want Khalil Shakir to have an amazing careers above low bill. I just don't think
it's in the cards for this game. You're going over. Yeah, I'm going over all the way. I think I'm just like I try to pick players on the team who have been sort of quiet because I do think that that's something that Dorsey does. Dave will actually did that better, I think in his time and maybe Dorsey, you know, still needs to learn about that. But you remember the big Isaiah Mackenzie game here and there and different things like that where all of a sudden, you know, there
would be a scheme that was specific to like really play a matchup. And the reason I bring up Khalil Shakir is because Stefan Diggs is the only player in the entire NFL who has four 100 plus yard games as receiver. And so I could see the, you know, defense for the Giants trying to erase him from this game as a desperate play. I miss good luck. Right. But I mean, but we've seen teams do that where they just stuck me and stifle him, handle him at the line, get up in his face, you know,
like double him over the top bracket coverage of the whole game. And so it's likely to me that if they do that, because that's one of their probably one of their only methods to winning is to keep to make him have a low game. If they do that, Josh is going to have to go somewhere else. Davis has been dropping the ball. So I'm looking for that like third option to show up. It should be concaid for the love of God. That's why we put a number one draft pick on this kid.
I don't disagree. But I'm just guessing here. No, it's a good, it's a good prop. It's a good prop. And Shakir has gotten a surprising amount of snap total snaps chair his, but it's he brings a lot of utility in the run blocking game. Like he's really improved in that way. And he brings a lot of value to this team in that way. So, so his snap count is a little bit deceiving, but he could get some opportunities. I just don't think it's going to be four and half
receptions. But yeah, I like that one. All right, James Cook over under 19 and a half total touches. I'm back on this. Just keep hitting it. Keep hitting it. Dude, this 30th ranked rushing defense by EPA. They're DV. I've got of course, I'm a DVOA guy. 31st in rushing defense DVOA. This has to be a James Cook bounce back game. If this is not a James Cook bounce back game, I don't know what we are doing. So is a society. I will say, you know what, I'm gonna like I am going to
what do we say when I want to disagree with you, I'm going to depart depart. I'm departing from that line of thinking, my friend. I think that this is actually a bigger Latavius Murray, or Damian Harris game, because of the past protection and capabilities that they both have that James Cook has, he's shown really well better than I expected. He's done well as a personal better, better than I would have expected for somebody
with a slider frame. But I do see with the level of blitzing that the Giants do, I think Damian Harris and Latavius Murray might get more snaps, specifically Damian Harris, he's a very, very good pass, you know, pass blocker in the backfield. And so I could see him getting a few more snaps than then cook in this one. So so I'm more under the touches. So you're going under the touches
and you're saying that Cook will get less of a snap share than Harris. Oh, Murray. Yes. Well, and I'm saying he's it's more likely in the big clutch third downs situations where they really need to pass for a first. I think that Cook may come off the field for one of them. For their past protection abilities, knowing the blitz. Okay. All right. All right. No, that's good. That's good. Yeah, we'll see. We'll see. We'll see. Our friend Brandon Bennett, friend of the pod,
hater of the bills. He has Cook in his fantasy lineup. So every week, it brings me such pleasure to see him root for a Buffalo Bill to bring him bring him victory because no one I knew England is bringing him victory anytime soon. That's for sure. I can't talk about that tire fire that got going on over there. I can't wait. I can't. Oh my God, we're going to be living our best life, living our best life in that pregame. All right, cool. All right, excellent. Well, JJ,
as always, great potting with you. For those of you listening at home, like, share and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts, Google, Apple, Spotify, drop us a review, interact with us on any of our social media feeds and channels. And as always, go bills. Go bills.