All right, welcome back to the Buffalo Bread podcast, our first live video, well, not live video, but recorded video version of the pod. It's week 11, Dan, it's Chiefs Week. It seems like a monumental occasion in the course of the season, but I find a lot of Bill's Mafia is in this weird sense of malaise. They're like, it doesn't like, what does this matter? We beat them in the regular season all the time. And so, you know, I don't know where your head is at.
All I know is that now that people can see our face, our viewership and engagement is either going to go down or incredibly way down. It's probably going down. That's right. That's right, America. This is what we look like. This is what you look like after two kids in a mortgage, my friend. So soak it all in. One kid in two mortgages. Soak it all in, everybody.
But yeah, JJ, this week, I agree with you, the vibe amongst Bill's Mafia is what could this game possibly mean if at the end of the day, we don't complete the task that we need to in January, which is beat this Chiefs team. And I feel that pain and I feel also that same sense of kind of like inertia when it comes to this matchup, because we have seen this before where the bills get a win against the Chiefs in the regular season looks like everything's going our way.
But inevitably three out of the past four times, it ends at the hands of this Kansas City team. I'm trying JJ and my own head to fight off some of that narrative slump, if you will, because there are actual stakes at play here. I mean, this game means a lot for the Buffalo Bills in their March to the postseason when it comes to the number one seed.
This is something the one of the few accomplishments, one of the few sort of pelts on the wall that in the McDermott and Allen era, this Buffalo Bills team has not claimed, which is a number one seed, which comes with that first full week by in the postseason, and then guaranteed home field advantage for as long as you win.
I think for me, JJ, especially when you look at the injury toll that is being taken on this bills team, both defensively and now in the past catchroom offensively, I don't think we should sleep on the real life stakes in this game, which is if we can beat the chiefs here and take care of business the rest of the season, we may have the inside track to the one seed and a full week before our first postseason game to get all of our dudes back healthy.
So to me, JJ, I'm fighting that narrative slump because there's real stakes that come along with this game this week. Sure, I get that.
I think that it's a lot of, you know, projection casting that that people are doing too, because they look at the bill schedule with three of the strongest juggernauts or two juggernauts and one strong team in the NFC coming up right out of the by, followed by three games in the AFC East, which we know should be wins, but also are always a challenge because they're in your division.
And then they look at the chief schedule and there's what, you know, the Texans, the Steelers maybe teams that could challenge the chiefs down the road. But otherwise, it looks like the chiefs will walk out of the season undefeated if the bills don't stop them here. Yeah, this seems like for all of you NFL fans that don't want the chiefs to go. Go 17 and know this does feel like the one best chance that there is on the remainder of their schedule.
This is the last line of CalTrops before the Mexico border. This is the Alamo, my friends, everybody bunker up. That's right. But JJ, all that being said, what this might mean for the rest of the NFL and the catharsis that made bring to fans should the bills win. At the end of the day, I think there's enough meat on the bone for the bills and for the bills to know what exactly the stakes are.
And I mean, let's be real, the fan base is one thing where I'll used to being in our own sort of neuroses around this team. It feels like based on the lead up to this week, the players and the coaches know what is potentially at stake. And they know that that one final goal that they want to achieve of beating the chiefs in the postseason is, of course, better served by a win this week than a loss. So I think that's what they're gearing up for. Yeah, absolutely.
And let's talk about kind of the setting the stage for this game a little bit. I'll just very briefly run down the injury so people know we're recording on Saturday. And so we have a full scope of the injury report, you know, with the exception of game day designations. And so what it looks like, of course, most people know at this point that Keon Coleman is out. Dalton Cade is out. Matt Milano is out. And then Omari Cooper and Spencer Brown are questionable for this game.
But I think it's from most of the Buffalo Beat reporters, it's it's likely they'll both play, even if it's somewhat limited. And maybe they, you know, need Spencer Brown to be spelled by Ryan Van Damarch here and there, which would be an interesting test for him. But that being said, the bills injury situation, you know, initially I looked at it, I was like, all right, this is not so bad.
You know, with offense looks terrible, but the defense looks good until I remember that two starters or immediate replacement level players for the bills defensive line are on injured reserves, and they're not even showing up on their parade now in DeWon smooth and DeWane Carter. So it's it's a rough time a year.
And you know, many people who are indifferent about the results of the game, because the playoffs matter more are of the opinion that you should just sit every being a sit everybody, let them have the two weeks to get healthy and then come out and have the last six games of the season. So that being said, kind of the pace setting of the bill side, and then on the chief side, they've had shaky outside tackle play with some injuries and some inconsistencies.
They've also just lost Harrison Bucker in practice to IR, which is a big component. And I think that people who are excited about that potentially changing things in the favor for the bills should tamp down that that excitement a little bit, because it might be just as likely that Andy Reid goes super hard on fourth down without a reliable kicker. And that times when the bills could have held them to field goals, they instead go all risk all reward. Fourth down plays and end up with touchdowns.
So we'll see how that turns out. Dude, I wouldn't be shocked by it either. I mean, we're going to get into this in a little bit more depth, but the chiefs on third down are playing at a historic rate as far as conversion goes. Patrick Mahomes individually on third and fourth down is literally having the best statistical season by way of conversion rate on those downs out of any other QB and the next gen stats next gen stats history. So Mahomes is having himself a season when it comes to that.
The chiefs as a team are 11 for 12 on fourth down. I wouldn't be shocked if Andy Reid just decides to spam, spam, spam. If he's anywhere near bills territory on fourth down, just to keep that bills defense on the field and Josh Allen off the field for sure. So JJ, let's dig into it, man. We got a lot to break down here. And as is the case when it comes to these two teams meeting in the regular season, they are both near neck and neck in the standings.
And when it comes to some of our advanced analytics, they're also neck and neck in that regard too. So when you chalk up the DVOA comparisons here, overall team DVOA JJ, the bills are at six and Kansas City is third. Now for folks listening at home, you may be confused because you feel like the chiefs have been getting lucky, blocked kick here. Isaiah likely foot too large there.
But the reality is, is that by comparison to their peers, which is what a DVOA measure is, the chiefs are still playing in a far above average level and high leverage situations, which is what you would expect from a team as well coached and a team that's as well quarterbacked as the Kansas City chiefs. As of DVOA, the chiefs are still a top 10 team coming in at number 10. And the bills are number six.
Defensively, the bills JJ somehow are number nine in the league, despite the injuries, despite the deficiencies against the run game, Kansas City is number four. And as we'll get into, they don't have the same deficiencies against the run defensively that the bills do special teams is kind of a wash. Both of these teams are playing below average, which is unique for these squads at this time in the air, but the bills are ranked 25th in special teams DVOA and Kansas City only 18th.
So that Harrison Bucke or the Harrison Bucke injury JJ may loom even larger than we would expect, as you mentioned. So JJ, where do you want to start? You want to start on the offensive side of the ball for the bills or the defensive side of the ball? Because I think it's two very different stories for how they can be effective against this chiefs team. Yeah, I mean, we should really start with the bills defense versus this chiefs offense.
Because I think that specifically, you know, one of the talking points has been coming up a lot this week that I can't agree with more is that the bills, Ben, but don't break style of defense plays exactly into the game script that the Kansas City chiefs want to play. They want to keep Josh Allen off the field. They want to control the clock. They're leading the league in time of possession. I think it's like 36 minutes per game.
And so their whole game is predicated on we're going to control the clock. We're going to shorten this game. We're going to shorten your your number of offensive possessions. Teams average one and a half less possessions per game on offense against the chiefs than any other team in the league. And so it's really, you know, for the bills to say, OK, we're going to make you go 10, 11, 12 plays and beat us with precision. The chiefs are like, that's exactly what we do. Thanks. We'll do that.
So to me, it's really a referendum on what can Bobby Babbage and, you know, Sean McDermott do in this game to prove that they can evolve to an opponent, an elite opponent and not just as I used to say all the time with Frazier as the DC, the defense is the defense and try to get out of here with, you know, execution of the defense is the defense. Yeah, man. I've got press man coverage circled in my notes here against these Kansas Citywide receivers.
Yes. I mean, and we saw Babbage dial it up against Miami in that second game we played against them a couple of weeks ago, where normally the bills are playing press man at one of the lower clips in the league. They're usually going somewhere between 19 and 24 percent per game. But for that Miami game with Jalen Wilde on Tyree kill on the opposite end of the field and Christian Benford out for that game, he dialed up press man on about 41 percent of the defensive steps.
And I feel like it's got to be a similar game plan, JJ, the wide receiver group that Kansas City is currently trotting out, even with Deandre Hopkins, he is still getting used to this offensive scheme and finding his way in this offense. Even with hop on the other side of the field, you got to feel like this wide receiver unit can be got in man coverage, which would open the door up to maybe some simulated blitzes, some actual blitzes on Patrick Mahomes, though he decimates the blitz.
So I wouldn't recommend that too fully. But it opens up some things that not necessarily Andy Reed and Mahomes haven't seen before, but maybe something that is not yet on film for this Buffalo Bill's defense that they didn't have a chance to game plan for early on. Now Reed and Mahomes, they're like the Borg like eventually if you throw enough things at them, they're going to assimilate.
So the key for Bobby Babbage is can you get creative at the right times to squeeze Mahomes in this Kansas City offense a little bit, particularly on third down JJ, where they've been so lethal. Well, and I think the secret of, you know, controlling them on third down is actually minimizing cream hunt from falling forward for four yards on first down and second down. This chiefs team is not the chiefs team from 2020, 2021, who's throwing it all over the yard.
They're actually establishing their run quite a bit. They made the same kind of evolutionary progression as the Buffalo Bill's in that regard, in that they try to stay at third and manageable. Um, scarily, even if they're third and six to eight, they tend to convert because it's freaking Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelsey, one of the most targeted tight ends in the league still. I thought he, you know, the, you know, the reports of his demise were overstated.
He apparently is still an excellent tight end. Yeah. Um, and so, you know, it's really, for me, it's of course what you had said, press man on the outside that the talent on the chiefs for wide receiver do not handle that very well. I think that Deondre Hopkins beats press man as well as any wide receiver in the league, maybe in his prime at this stage in his career, it does tend to slow him a little bit more than it used to.
And then on top of that Xavier worthy is just so like you can just basically throw him out the club at the life. You get your hands on him at the line. That's another thing that I wanted to focus on too is this is particularly Christian Benford and Rassoul Douglas, you know, even Taylor wrap to some regards. Um, all of those players have shown an excellent ability to maintain a tackle while punching at the ball.
Xavier worthy, if he gets his hands on one is a prime target for a fumble because he is one, he's just kind of smaller and slider. So that's just like a physics advantage. But then on top of that, he has, you know, in the past had problems with fumbles in college. Um, here and there and is a, there's a potential for that.
If you can catch him and get your hands on him, you could definitely potentially make some turnovers, which I think if we're sticking with the bills on defense focus, they've been excellent. They've had to turn over in every game for the longest streak in the NFL right now. They need to turn the ball over more than the offense gives it away in this game. They need extra possessions for Josh Allen and the offense.
If they're going to control the game, they need to win the time of possession battle. And that I think is turnovers. Yeah, absolutely. And JJ also too, it's interesting when we talk about pressure on Patrick Mahomes, because I think as we talk more about press man coverage, really what we're saying is we want to disrupt the timing of this offense because we don't trust these wide receivers on Kansas City to get separation early in a, in a time to pass situation.
And that has been the case for teams that successfully get pressure on Patrick Mahomes organically, listen, this dude is still elite against the Blitz. This team offensively against a defensive Blitz is number three and overall passing efficiency. But Mahomes is recording his lowest completion percentage against the organic Blitz, the four man Blitz JJ at 44% this season.
What that tells me when I look at the numbers and I look at film is that if you can get quick pressure, hello, Greg Russo leading the league in quick pressures off the snap this season. If you get quick pressure on Mahomes, these Kansas City wide receivers are not getting enough separation to create a clear target or window for Mahomes to get to that to me feels like the key.
I don't actually want to see a lot of exotic Blitz is here, but I want to see us play a game against Kansas City a lot like we play against Miami, which is we work to get pressure with our front four, particularly off the edge where this Kansas City offensive line has some vulnerabilities, and then you do not allow these wide receivers for Kansas City, a depleted unit without Rashi rice to get easy separation off the line of scrimmage. I really, really want to see the bills do a JJ.
I just don't think they will because even though we've seen some nice wrinkles from Babbage, this has largely been a the defense is the defense type of season for the bills as we have gone. But if they're going to change it up, if they're going to throw something at Mahomes that they haven't put on film yet, it's press man on the outside and get pressure with Greg or so coming off the edge. I yeah, I think that we were tossing dirt on the defense is the defense.
I will say that in multiple games, particularly when the bills are ahead and the other team has to change the game script a little bit. The defense is the defense has proved exactly why that's the plan, right? Like sound fundamental football making the other team go on long is sustained drives. We've seen those mistakes. We've seen the fumbles. We've seen interceptions. We've seen sacks and drives because teams felt like they're forced to pass.
And so I do, you know, I'll throw that little caveat in here that this season may be more than other seasons, particularly those seasons where the offense was was absolutely humming.
And you know, a Frazier defense was just seems soft at times without splash plays this year because of some of the things, the changes they made younger, faster, more physical, you know, defenders leaning on some of those younger players, you know, Dorian Williams and Terrell Bernard have looked a lot better this year. And so in a lot of ways, I think that, you know, the defense is the defense. It has worked better this year because of splash plays turnovers.
The sack numbers aren't there, but the pressures influencing the play are the tackles for loss. Definitely are when they're on it in the run front. They're holding Jonathan Taylor to like seven yards or five yards and seven carries or whatever in the second half. So that's the kind of thing that I think that we can hopefully take some solace from in this situation.
And one more note on the kind of upcoming game and the matchup with the bill's defense for me is what do they do about Travis Kelsey? Travis Kelsey is killed. He just kills them, man. And I feel you boy Cole Bishop may have been drafted as a Kelsey antidote, but I don't know if he's ready for that. They obviously they obviously don't think he's ready because they're not playing him nearly the clip.
They're playing some of these other rocks, which which worries me that we're going to see a Cam Lewis matchup with Travis Kelsey to cancel Kelsey. And that's not he's not quite big enough. Let me let me throw another option at you. And again, this is all this is all hypotheticals that probably won't come to fruition because the bills are nothing if not frustratingly consistent with the defensive scheme. But what about Kairi Elam? What about Kairi Elam?
Just as the the Kelsey shadow, bump them at the line of scrimmage, hold them, do your best sauce gardener impression within the first five yards of the play. And don't let him just amble out into space. Kair, your assignment is Travis. Stick with him every single time he's on the field. Unless you see Patrick Mahomes past the line of scrimmage, you are inside. You are closer to Travis Kelsey than Taylor has ever been. Yes. Like that is your mission.
Oh my God, I hope Babbage puts it to him exactly like that. Again, I don't think they will. But when you look at the physical profile of guys that are on the defensive roster, it's Cam Lewis and it's Kairi Elam. And I actually like Elam in the spot with his traits. He's built a little bit of confidence throughout the course of the season. Babbage obviously knows how to tune parts of the game plan to what Elam can do. I would love to see Elam on Kelsey. I just don't think it's going to help.
Yeah. No, I know. Because again, defense is the defense. And to kind of throw a couple more flowers at Elam. I know we mentioned this on the pod, but I think it's worth bringing up again. He has looked way more confident and capable in zone coverage, not that this is what we wanted for in this assignment. Just literally closer than Taylor. Right. Absolutely. Absolutely. You know, JJ, it's interesting. This is the type of game, too.
And this will be my last thought, I think, before we kick it over to the offensive side of the ball for the Bills. This is the type of game where you almost, I mean, not almost, you wish Milano was back. Not because you want to hide Dorian Williams, but Dorian Williams as the Kelsey Eraser, Allah, what Shaq Barrett did in that Super Bowl for Tampa Bay against Kansas City. That to me would also be a great antidote to Kelsey.
Listen, Kelsey is still really, really good, but he is a slight beat slower this season than he has been. He's kind of played his way into shape as the season has gone on. I would love just to unleash a Dorian Williams knowing you've got the comfort of Bernardo Milano still sitting in the middle of the field working that. I think Dorian Williams at some point, once the squad gets healthy, could factor in on the same way that Barrett did for Tampa Bay, that Super Bowl winner here.
Yeah, no, I agree. I think that that's a better utilization of him than they have to pinch hit as a Milano replacement. Yeah. And I think, you know, you mentioned it before with Greg Russo and quick pressure. I think that the, you know, the only vulnerability on this chief's offensive line is their tackles. And it's a big time vulnerability. Their suffering on the outside at both right and left tackle. And so come on. This is it. Greg Russo. This is the time to earn that big contract.
AJ Ponezza, this is the time to prove your worth, your money. Von Miller, show us that you're not too old to play. Show us your complete toast at this point. Yeah, exactly. Like this is the time to shine for all of those, those ed rushers. Javon Solomon, how about a rival game, an NFL declaration game for you? Oh my God. Obviously, and I'm not going to lie, I didn't want to say it on the pod because then I was going to be there in memoriam for all to see if I was wrong.
But as I was breaking down the stat packages for this and I was taking a look at the tackle vulnerabilities, dude, these tackles, they cannot flash to the outside. They are so slow in their footwork closing off the edge. I felt like driving in my car one day to work. Huh. I wonder if on the pod I should throw out Javon Solomon as an X factor. And then I was like, you know what? I'm a back off of it, but here we are.
But and here we are because his speed alone, his speed rush moves off the edge would be an absolute handful and peer passing downs for those tackles on Kansas City to handle. I my God, dude, there is listen, I know we're injured and I know it's the chiefs, but there are so many fun and unique levers that Babich could be pulling in order just to throw some stuff at my homes and read that they have not seen yet from the Steve funds.
I would love it if Babich a had the agency for McDermott to do so, which I don't know if he does, but then be actually had the wherewithal to do it because there is a there is a combination of coverages and a combination of individual matchups here with some guys you would not expect like a Kyre Elam and a Javon Solomon that could really bear fruit against the vulnerabilities of this Kansas City team.
I'm disappointed that you said wherewithal, which is like an SAT prep word because I was really hoping you were going to say Cajones and go like grade school playground with it. Podcast with it. Yeah, he just he just doesn't have the sack to do it, JJ. Not going to say that. Yes, I agree. I do. I mean, I love that we both identified Javon Solomon as a potential X factor, but I will say that that dude has his snap share has actually gone down even with the ones. Yeah, I like he's actually lost.
So he he's clearly messed up some of his assignments because he went from like 12 to 14 percent to six to 8 percent of the defensive snap. Just give him the Bryce Huff treatment like on these third and longs that Kansas City find themselves in so frequently. I mean, that's the thing. That's what makes this third down offense for Kansas City even more aggravating is that they are bottom third in the league and first and second down efficiency.
So they are finding themselves in third and long more often than not obvious passing situations to JJ. And that feels like a time where you can just tell Solomon to go and get to the QB as humanly fast as possible. But you're you're right. There's something they're seeing in practice. There's something with his live game assignments that they just don't have the confidence in him. But that is a skill set.
Again, it would be great to see exploited by this Buffalo Bills coaching staff if the opportunity availed itself. Right. Yeah. Yeah, ready to flip it over to the bill's offense. 100 percent, man. I'm going to talk about Josh Allen versus Spags because that's really what this boils down to, right? So we're yeah, absolutely. So do you want to start? I've got I've got my notes here broken down into rush game plan versus pass game plan.
And I know we like to talk complimentary football as Buffalo Bills fans. And I know those things need to align. But to me, this feels like a game where and it's ironic to say this one, Josh Allen is your QB. It feels like despite the efficacy of this Chiefs defense in the run game, there are going to be some opportunities for Ray Davis and for James Cook to make some hay, particularly on the outside of the tackles. So you want to talk J A 17 or do you want to talk rush game first?
Let's start with like, like I always prefer to start with in the trenches with the run game and run fits. I think that what you'll see from this, what does they that third best rushing defense in the league right now, the Kansas City Chiefs? Oh, yeah. Yep. So they have a their their remarkable rush stop ability is three things. It is Chris Jones, end of statement. And then it is defensive backs who do not mind getting their nose dirty in the run game.
And then a linebacking core who is custom built to flood and rush into rush lanes and tackle. They've really built a team that is quality at that when it comes to not sacrificing too much athleticism, but also being sound fundamentally and shutting things down. Some of that also is Spagnolo will do some exotic run blitzes. And he'll also do if a team's really coming after them with the rush, he'll do exotic run run blitzes.
And then he will also do some gap switch and gap exchange type things with his defense in order to get around particularly difficult offensive line matchup.
So if he has an offensive lineman who he believes is overmatched with the defensive line lined up across from them, he will actually do a run stunt where he moves that defensive lineman out to another over another lineman during after the snap of the ball or out to somewhere where a tight end or a wide receiver has to block him and insert a linebacker into that matchup who might be quicker and you know, might be able to get around somebody who might
be physically overpowering on the offensive line for the opponent.
So it's it's fascinating to watch and infuriating to think about because I can see this substantially frustrating Aaron Kroemer and Joe Brady throughout the course of the game, because the things that even when the bills line up with their sixth offensive lineman, Alec Anderson, as they as they do more than any other team in the league, I can see the chiefs finding a way to completely negate the bills rushing attack, because you're not going to run straight at Chris Jones.
That's there's nobody on the bills offensive line who can handle him even in a double for the most part, which is scary and sad. You're not going to run directly at Chris Jones. So you're going to have to work the edges and to work the edges, you're going to get into those situations where the Kansas City Chiefs will triple triple body to a double gap, you know, fill the gap with two bodies and have somebody float over the top and fill in wherever they're needed on the edges.
And that that's just, you know, you almost always have a free tackler with this defense. What that means and I know this is a comment or something you want to talk about. So I'll flip it to you for this is that you need to work under center play action in this game. You have to spam play action against this chiefs team.
And JJ this is what we're talking about when you have a defense that is this solid at every level of the field in the past in the run game, you've got to work the margins somewhere because a Spags coach defense is only going to be vulnerable in the margins. And JJ those margins are in the play action under center game. The Kansas City Chiefs this season JJ rank in the top 10 in most defensive efficiency metrics, except for two. One of those is play action under center.
They are 20th in defensive efficiency. When it comes to defending that type of play set and the bills are third at running it. And Josh Allen has the best QBR rating in the league when it comes to throwing off of under center play action. Now JJ much like Bobby Babich where we're like, is he is he going to dial up something a little bit different?
This would actually be despite the bill's success of play action, a departure in play calling for Joe Brady because over the past four weeks, the bills have not called play action more than 24% of their offensive snaps for a game like this, where you have to absolutely spam a deficiency of the opposing team. It really needs to be more like Ben Johnson Detroit Lions territory, where you're calling play action on 51 53 55% of your plays.
Now this means at some point, you're going to have to have some success on the run game too, so that that linebacker crew in particular at the middle level will continue to take the bait.
And for me JJ again, when you're talking about the margins of really good defense, you've got to run it to the outside and you've got to hope that situation that you've talked about with the chiefs loading up three guys and two gaps, which is what they tend to do, that the bills are somehow going to crack through that because teams generally, when they've run the ball in Kansas City, the most success they've seen is trying to stretch this defense laterally in the run game.
They're giving up JJ on average only about 29 yards per game when you run inside the tackles, but outside the tackles into the end to the sidelines, they're giving up 54 yards per game. So this is the area JJ you've got to establish the outside tackle run game, which the bills are pretty proficient in the majority of their play calls tend to skew very, very slightly towards the outside tackle run game.
If you can hit that, if the Buffalo is the Buffalo Bills early in the game and establish it, play action then opens the door for a bunch of other things. And then let's not forget, if we're talking about stretching the field laterally, the Buffalo Bills have a screen game and Khalil Shakira is healthy to go for this game, I think is going to be a factor in this too. So to me JJ, it's got to be a combination of all of it.
You know that you know that Baltimore Ravens game plan that we wanted to jettison into the sun where everything was behind the line of scrimmage or everything was to the sidelines. We actually need that game. Dust that thing off. Dust that off, take a spaceship up to the sun, retrieve it. Retrieve it. Retrieve the carbon fibers and reassemble it. Yep, and reset for this game because they're going to need it. Yeah. No, that's absolutely right.
I think that you're right about the defense for the Chiefs is just so thick through the middle. I think that you could, if you get them moving to side to side, that's the only time they're vulnerable through the core of this defense. And so, you know, they're fundamentally sound as I mentioned before, they tackle well. I think if you can get Mack Hollins or Amari Cooper, granted Amari Cooper's got a wrist that's dinged up so he might not be the best in this as an insert blocker.
But if you get one of your bigger bodies receivers, even Tural Shavers, you know, with Keon Coleman down against Trent McDuffie, who's lined up on the outside. Trent McDuffie has tiny little T-Rex arms. He's an excellent corner. He's so good. He's so good. And the reason he's so good is because he uses his immeasurably quick lower body to get around people because his tiny little T-Rex arms won't allow him to do very much in that regard.
And so, with that said, if you can get a clean block on him on the outside, you're good for six yards if there's not enough help nearby. Because even as fast as Leo Channal, even as fast as Nick Bolton and some of those other players in the center second level are, they're not going to get to the edge before Khalil Shaqir can get six yards. I can guarantee you. So, if you get one clean block. Yep. Just one. Just one clean block.
I get into so many dumb internet arguments about DeKwan Hardy, who we have on the practice squad, because everyone I get into an argument with is like, he's a slot only. He can't play on the outside. And I constantly point to Trent McDuffie. And I'm like, he could be this. And everyone's like, no, you more. And I'm like, listen, I'm just saying no one thought McDuffie because of the way he played at Washington could play at the outside, but the chiefs are using him.
Using him as an outside corner. And he's been a solid off outside corner. He's been remarkably well equipped out there. And I joke about his his arm like this, the reason that people said he was a slot only, but like he you can do so much more with smarts and tape study and anticipation and other physical gifts that he's done.
I will you know, I do get it though, those people who are arguing kind of, you know, prototypes and you know, body types are that they're they're not wrong because the no, they are wrong. Take my side. Take my side. They are wrong. I want I want to take your side, but people like you are the reason that teams pick Bryce young because they think that they're going to get Kyler Murray. Oh man, that one hurts. That one hurts. Oh, the truth stings. Okay, continue. That's my only point.
But I do think one thing I would like to see in this game is moving things left to right laterally is a vulnerability for this team. And the one of the concepts that the bills have used in the past, they have not used as much this year. And I don't know if it's a matter of it was a dorsy thing that Brady adopted that Brady has since issued, or if it is a, you know, they're just they just haven't been using it because they've been trying some other things.
And that's the classic pin pole, the tackle wrap play, where you have a tight end or a wide receiver crashing out on the last man on the line. And then you bring Dawkins or Brown or, you know, if Brown is out, you bring the backup tackle in to do that that wrap around the end. Because that is a good way to work the edges and create a real nice seal where your angles are all very nice.
And I know last year on the pot, I, I did like a four or five minute breakdown on why that works so well with angles as a person blocking. I won't go back and revisit all that. But essentially, you just you just create very favorable ways to use your bodies in space to create a nice seam. I'd like to see the tackle wrap play come back in this game because I think they've got they've got the athleticism on the outside to use it.
And I haven't seen it use, you know, they have not utilized it up to this point. Absolutely. I mean, not as much. The pieces are there, JJ, for the bills, even despite the injuries to pull out a much needed win here against Kansas City. It's just a matter of, are they going to put the right pieces in the right spots, which sounds overly simplistic from an analysis standpoint, but really is all is what it chocks up to. I mean, this is essentially a divisional game.
These two teams have played each other a lot over the course of the regular season and the post season. Since 2020, they know each other. They've seen each other's film. They're intimately familiar with each other's schemes. It is going to come down to some of these unused levers that we've been mentioning as a way to possibly gain an advantage for one of these two teams. So we're going to see how it plays out.
And JJ, now is the time to tell everybody how we think that's going to play out with prediction sure to go wrong. So let's talk about it, man. Where do you want to start? You want to start with your win prediction here for this game? Yes. Do you want me to give you the spread and the overrunner and all that fun stuff? I believe the overrunner is 46, right? It's 46. And the line on this game opened at bills favored by one and a half.
It went all the way up to two and a half and is now down to two. Okay. Because the money has moved it a little bit. A little bit. Yeah. So I'll say one thing. The bills on at home are scoring eight or 10 points more average per game than on the road. And their defense is performing one point better. They're only allowing 18 points at home versus 19 on the road. But pretty, you know, pretty consistently have been a good, you know, team in terms of point differential.
That's the biggest thing I think that we see that gives me hope for the bills in this game is that the chiefs are historically outliers when it comes to being nine and oh, because they have such a small point differential over their opponents throughout this this far into the season. It's the lowest point differential positive point differential of any team who's been undefeated this late in the season in history.
So like you said, coming in like statistically and advance analytically, they are a very good team and their shows and their record. However, it's so close like one ball bouncing here, one ball bouncing there.
You know, one bad call against the opponent, which we know the chiefs get extra of or one turnover by Patrick Mahomes that gets negated by penalty of which he has had 30 since 2018, which is a, you know, point 48 percent versus all of their quarterbacks, which is point seven percent of their turnovers or mistakes being negated by penalty. Just throwing that out there. Not a conspiracy. Not a conspiracy, but the the refs are on the field too. Just good to make note of that.
Yeah, good to make note of it. With all that said, I like the bills in this game because it is home because we know the crowd is going to be into it and sauced up. And I think the biggest edges that I can give to the bills is that this bill's team has proven that they can run against even good rushing defenses at times. And Josh Allen has been so much smarter with the ball since the two weeks, you know, the two consecutive losses.
He's been really taking what the defense has given and this Kansas City Chiefs team will give up yards and completions on play action specifically. So I think that the bills have a better chance here than than they have in some other matchups with these chiefs and the chiefs offensive tackles are a complete mess. And so I don't think Patrick Mahomes is going to be comfy. And when he's uncomfortable, he also makes mistakes. So give me the bills. 24 21. It's going to be sweaty.
Yeah, it's going to be sweaty because these teams don't know how to play any other type of game. Yeah, we're it's weird. Your score prediction is what is actually had the bills 23 and the chiefs 21. So OK. So even closer, even closer. And the bills, the bills barely covering in this particular game. It's a push on the cover. But yeah, but I'm with you for all the reasons you already said, I think the bills need this game. I think both teams are going to come juiced up for this game.
And despite everything that we're seeing on social media with Bill's fans kind of trying to pretend like they're ambivalent to this, Highmark is going to be rocking for this. And that's going to give the bills hopefully all the advantage that they need here. The people who say they don't care are just putting emotional armor around their heart. We understand, folks, we're there. We're there with you. We really, really are. We've done the same. We do it on this pod every week. All right.
So JJ prop bets. I actually have two. OK. Over under half a decision that cost the bills the game by Sean McDermott. Oh, decision by Sean McDermott. I thought you were going to say decision by the head ref. Well, that's coming. That's coming. So yeah. So listen, cost the guilt. So you're saying like will cost the bill over would be we lose because of Sean McDermott decision under would be we do not lose because of a shot. Right. And these are exactly.
And I'm not talking about like a fourth down or a challenge. I'm talking like game management. The thing that we have regularly derided Sean McDermott for on this pod. I'm talking about something to do with game management. Say, I don't know, in the last 13 seconds of the game, you're talking about the bills are up by two points like your scenario of their win. And he plays a two man defensive line rush with, you know, eight, nine in coverage and you know, gives up easy completions for a field.
Yeah. Over under half a one of those. I'm going to say under because I think the bills do win this game. But I think I'll hedge and I'll say the bills might win in spite of. Oh, I like that one. His bad decisions like Josh gets the ball last for once in a while. These games maybe that that is 100 percent. The answer for me is that the bills need to they need to finish this game on offense or the lose. Oh my God. Yes. Absolutely. They need to be kneeling down at the end or they have lost this.
Yep. 100 percent. Mahomes needs to be on the bench in the last 90 seconds of this game. Otherwise, I mean, it's going to be a bill's loss. And there's nothing more delicious than the pouting Mahomes on the bench knowing he's lost. I love it. Like I just thought I'll just play that on a repeat and just chocolate. I love it. I love it. So the second prop bet over under penalty differential four and a half in favor of the Kansas City Chiefs.
So the Kansas City Chiefs, JJ, are one of the least penalized squads in the league this year. They they've got 45 total penalties, which is good for 21st in the league. The bills have 65, which is good for a number the number nine clip in the league. So the bills, we talked about this a little bit. They have been penalized pretty frequently this season. The Chiefs, you know, they usually have something in their pockets when it comes to the refs. So what do you think?
Do the Chiefs win the penalty differential in this game? The thing in their pockets is the refs. Interestingly enough, I think I'm going to smash the over. I think that the bills have at least six more penalties than the Chiefs in this game call them even at home. This land, the head referee, Chiefs are five and oh when he's their referee. Unbelievable. He's never refed a bills and Chiefs game. I think the I think the bills are three and one when land has one of their games to listen.
He's going to have to pick a favorite kid in this game. That's what it's going to come down to. Yeah, we're going to come on land, either play it straight or definitely pick somebody and favor them to 100%. That's what it's got to be. That's what it's got to be. All right, man, you got any props? Yeah, I've got one over under half of a Matt Collins touchdown. All right. So listen, I hate love that you have brought this up because I've been a Mack Hollins derider over the past couple of weeks.
I have like listen right and I feel justified in that. I'm sorry. I like Matt Collins. Everyone should like. He's a very likable guy. He's a great leader. But if your go to play in the fourth quarter of any game, third and seven in the red zone is a slant to Mack Hollins, something else has failed. Right. Yeah. I think there's been some injuries to this wide receiver room. And Hollins stepped up big time last game.
I'm going to say under just because I don't think there's going to be a lot of touchdowns to go around. And I think this is going to be like a weird Ray Davis gets one, Josh Allen maybe gets a couple and that's it. I'm going to say under, but that doesn't mean I don't think Hollins has the ability to be a positive factor in this game, especially given all the injuries. Okay. Yeah, I'm going to smash the over. I think Mack Hollins continues his his play in clutch moments.
He's he's he's impressed me. I said a couple of weeks ago that he has no business being on the field on offensive snaps. He should be a special teams only player after a number of drops during the bill's losses. Because I am very I go very hard in either direction. I do not stay consistent week to week. But now I'm a Mack Hollins fan on the field. So my last one is over under Josh Allen, 10 and a half rushes. Oh, he has to give you historical context against all opponents in his career.
He averages six to eight rushes per game. And that's including scrambles. This is not designed. Okay, I was going to ask for that clarification because yeah, so this is yeah, all rush attempts that include scrambles. And so across his career, it's been less than 10 but 68 against the chiefs, he averages 10. Because the offensive line can't protect him against the chiefs. That's what it is.
One, they can't protect him to the chiefs have such a good run front that the bills have to play the numbers advantage of running with their cube. So you know, it's interesting because I was I pulled these numbers before this pod. I didn't know if I'd have a chance to drop them in or not. But Josh Allen has only had 16 designed QB scrambles for him, according to FTN. The rest of his rushes 65 have come off of just organic scrambles, right? Where he's breaking the pocket he's got to take off.
I listen, I still have a sinking feeling this offensive line is not as good as the metrics will say they are. But regardless, the bills offensive line is always struggle against the past rush for this Kansas City Chiefs team just because the waste bags draws it up. I'm going to say over because I do think there's going to be some quick pressures on Josh and he's going to have to break contain. All right. Yeah, I'm also hitting the over.
I think that it may not be a lot of design runs, maybe two or three of those. But I do think that we're going to see Josh Allen have to convert some third downs on his on his legs or attempt to. Yeah. Yeah. Team seem really ready for the design, the design Josh Allen rush game this year. We've talked about it a couple of times, but the organic scrambles absolutely. So JJ, that's it. Our first YouTube pod, man. First YouTube pod.
Yep. So this is going to go live here in the next couple of minutes for all of you listening at home. Please feel free to drop us a like, subscribe to our new YouTube channel. Comment on the on the video. Give us a comment. We love your feedback unless it's bad. In which case, we'll ignore it because our self esteem can't handle that. And then grab us wherever you get your spot, your podcasts, Apple Spotify, drop us a review there. Give us a follow. We appreciate it. And as always, go bills.
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