Alright, welcome back to the Buffalo Bread Podcast, JJ back with you and excited this week to break down the upcoming Monday Night game against the Jaguars from Jacksonville, Florida. We are in week 3 and it is Sunday, September 22nd So let's talk about what this bill's team needs to do to fellow Jaguars who have been a bugaboo Dan. Haven't you noticed that? Yeah man, Dan Dawkins made a pretty funny joke in the pregame press conferences for this.
Being like, I don't know if it's their uniforms, I don't know what it is, but the Jags are always just a weird one for the bills. Last year, you could chalk it up to the way the bills manage the travel schedule for the London game for sure. But also we don't want to discredit their former defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell with the defensive game plan that he had going against the bills. This year, it's a mostly new coaching staff. Caldwell I don't believe is with the team anymore.
Doug Peterson feels like he is coaching for his job this season and the Jaguars have responded by laying an 0-2 egg to start the year. But JJ, it is not the defense that is the issue in Jacksonville. It appears to be the offense with one very, very interesting exception. That offense is struggling by most metrics to produce anything meaningful, including points on the board, save for one fast of their game, and that's the deep ball.
So of course, I went to former bill, formerly departed beloved Bill Gabe Davis to see like, what is he doing differently this season? Might be helping Trevor Lawrence and it turns out not much. He has a catch rate right around 50%. And it's just one of those weird, flukey stats that you get in week two. So I am expecting JJ a much more well-rounded game plan with the extra day the Jags have to prepare for the bills.
And I believe they're going to try to attack at all levels because they have a QB that is capable of doing so. So I'm excited to dig into it, man. Which side of the ball do you want to start on? Yeah, I mean, why don't we start with that, you kind of brought up the Jaguars offense against this bill's defense. Let's go that in that direction. And I agree with you.
It's a weird thing where, you know, in the league and a lot of talk has happened this week about what's going on with the NFL, because teams are not necessarily ranking up the, you know, 300 yard passing days, and the, you know, long passing production, lots of scoring. The NFL has really been trying to fine tune towards for years, because it's so much more fun to watch. The NFL hasn't really been achieving those sort of big high shootout games, except for the New Orleans Saints.
And but these Jaguars are one of the few teams that has, as you mentioned, having some success has been having some success in those long deep shots, which is exactly the kind of thing that the Buffalo Bill's defense has been fine tuned to never allow over the course of Sean McDermott's entire tenure in the organization. So that's an interesting kind of like, you know, unending, you know, momentum versus immovable object type matchup. And I'm excited to see it.
I think that what we know from the bills is that they're still not going to have, of course, Matt Milano's on IR until probably December, but they're not going to have Terrell Bernard or Taryn Johnson for this one, which, you know, prior to last week, I would have said this is a crippling blow for the defense. There's no way they can pull this out.
And then they went out on Thursday night without Terrell Bernard after the first quarter and, you know, without Taryn Johnson from the previous week and held their own and dominated in a lot of regards a high powered offense in the Miami Dolphins. I think that this Jacksonville Jaguars offense comparatively is a little bit better in the offensive line than the dolphins, a little bit worse in the passing game talent and probably a wash in the running, running game.
Because I think that, you know, their line is definitely not proving out to be an excellent running team, but Travis Etienne is a very, you know, it's a very outstanding talent in that position. And I think their wide receiver core with Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas, Jr. has a lot of talent as well. I think that Bill's fans, you know, some people roll their eyes at Gabe Davis and I think does aggregate. He's a good third wide receiver in the league. I think that's his level.
Yeah, JJ, the the run game was, I think, a great place to start with for a couple of reasons. One, I agree with you, Travis Etienne will not the threat to catch the ball out of the backfield that divine HN was last week. I do think is going to provide some interesting issues here for the Buffalo Bills defense. One thing that I think has remained consistent with the bills between the Cardinals game and the Dolphins game, and it's a limited sample size.
They are giving up yards and they are giving up touchdowns to opposing teams running backs. And Etienne, while not necessarily the home run hitter, we thought he was going to be when he got drafted out of Clemson into the league. He is proven to be a high volume, high touch back for Jacksonville. His yards per carry, not great. He is also getting hit behind the line of scrimmage quicker than all but five other running backs in the league right now.
So it's not like he has a whole other room to operate with this offensive line and so many new pieces still coming together and gelling, but it doesn't stop them from feeding him. What is interesting, JJ, is the amount of his snap share that's been taken by Tank Bigsby, who finds himself questionable for this game and limited via the injury report and practices throughout the week.
When I read and the lead up to a lot of games that the bills play, I'll read a lot of opposing journalists and sports media guys takes that cover that team specifically. And there seems to be a lot of love for Tank Bigsby in Jacksonville. The only issue seems to be that ETN is so ingrained as like their Hoover Vacuum touch drawing guy is that they're having a hard time figuring out Bigsby and where they can integrate him in.
And I think JJ, that is kind of what I look at when I look at the Jacksonville Jaguars on film is that they're a team that has a lot of pieces that when you look at it individually should be performing better than they are, the issue seems to be cohesion, which you could chalk up to coaching and Doug Peterson. It doesn't seem like the offensive scheme right now is necessarily cohesive.
And it doesn't seem like they've done a good job integrating a lot of these new parts other than at the most rudimentary level. So this is where I'm concerned. Listen, Doug Peterson, I saw the Jacksonville Jaguars were, were probably going to be a dumpster fire this year. And I'm hoping I'm right. Oh, and three for this team, given the talent they've assembled on the roster, it feels like feels like a stretch. So mostly vibes.
But if there were a game where the offense were to get it together, forget what we saw in that Miami game that was a short week from Miami. Their depth was really tested. It's a familiar opponent for us. Jacksonville seems to be the ideal trap game for the bills, a team with a little bit of extra time to prepare for a defense in Buffalo that we cannot ignore how depleted they are.
And with Johnson and Bernard out for another game, this feels like another game where running backs will be featured. The bills will stubbornly stay in their, their two high sets or their nickel packages to alleviate the deep ball. But I think the Jaguars are going to take shots downfield. I think this is a game JJ the Jaguars are going to look to play in the absolute extremes of the field. They're going to look to pound and short yardage areas where they can.
And then they're going to look to extend the field. I mean, they're missing Evan Ingram, who's one of their great over the middle weapons for this game. So I really do feel like this Jacksonville offense pound the rock and short yardage, three yards in a cloud of dust, and then they're going to bomb. And I think eventually that's going to become a lot for a depleted Buffalo bills defense to overcome.
Yeah, I would agree, and I think that I would warn bills mafia to not presume that because this team was able to shut down an offense like the dolphins that shutting down an offense like the Jaguars is going to be a given because the Jaguars haven't scored more than 17 points in either of their two contests this year, the season.
But they have a player, you know, at quarterback in Trevor Lawrence, who is not the type of, you know, Kyler Murray to attack Tagal Lavoa, those aren't quarterbacks that you necessarily have to guard the whole field.
I think that Trevor Lawrence is more like a Josh Allen and maybe part of the reason the Jaguars have seen such a difficult puzzle to solve for the bills, even though it's not like been high scoring affairs, you know, slowing them down and keeping that, you know, they tend to stay on the field, they tend to kind of march the field and then the bills have shut them down in previous contests in the red zone.
But ever since Trevor Lawrence has entered the league, I think the bills have lost against him every time. So it's a matter of in weird games. As you mentioned, when we open about the Andongans comments at Oliver was also in front of the podium talking about how weird the matchups have been.
It's the type of thing where the bills shut down portions of the field by scheme because they've been facing quarterbacks and do face quarterbacks, especially in the division with Miami, the Patriots with, you know, Zach Jones previously or Zach Wilson, the the Jets with Zach Wilson, the Patriots with Mack Jones, I got that all bungled. But you know, they faced quarterbacks without huge arm talent. Trevor Lawrence has a huge arm talent for the Jaguars.
So they can't necessarily take away his first read, cinch down on routes requiring a very, very, you know, accurate tight window throw and know that the ball's not going to end up going there because of a proximity of coverage.
These bills defenders will absolutely need, you know, to be stuck to their man like Velcro, if they want to stop him from throwing to options because he will throw some kind of Josh Allen risky balls into tight coverage and he will hit over the top of where you think a quarterback shouldn't be able to hit. So those are the big, I think those are the big risks I see for this, you know, this bill's defense against the Jaguars.
And I do think that, you know, as you mentioned, the injuries might come to bite them this week. I think it's really going to come down to whether or not, you know, Greg Russo, DeQuand Jones at Oliver, AJ Ponezza slash von Miller, as the starting four are going to be able to affect the quarterback specifically up the middle.
Because the Jacksonville and Jaguars have have kind of decent have a good left tackle and Cam Robinson, their left guard is solid and as reclaving, but then we know Mitch Morris, we know he's a little bit undersized and athletic. Brandon Scherf, I think is a, he played the majority of his career with the Washington commanders, probably has passed the kind of nadir of his career and is on the down slope. And Anton Harrison, their right tackle has at times looked like a complete mess.
So I think this is a game that, you know, von Miller, AJ Ponezza, let's see what you got because that's going to be the secret for the bill's defense. Because I do think that the linebackers might be picked on a little bit. I'm just not as scared as I have been about other offenses because they seem the Jaguars don't seem to have a good identity and it's always changing. Absolutely. And I think part of the problems with establishing their identity has been that offensive line that you mentioned.
Unlike Arizona, who we previewed earlier in the season, there's some names on that offensive line that are familiar, that have some decent resumes or at least athletic profiles in this league. And JJ hasn't borne fruit, I mentioned Travis Etienne being contacted behind the line of scrimmage so frequently. Trevor Lawrence has the highest sacrate in the league and it's not because he's holding on to the ball at a Justin Fields S-clip.
He's getting rid of it in 2.7, 2.8 seconds, which tells me two things. His guys are not getting a lot of separation, which shocker Gabe Davis is on this team, not a big separation guy. But two, he's also under duress on a high amount of his drop backs, which has led to his 51% completion rate. I think if the Buffalo Bills defensive line fails to get push and fails to penetrate into the backfield, it actually could be a long day for them.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have been waiting for a game to allow Trevor Lawrence some time to see Routes develop, throw some guys open, and he just hasn't had it through the first two games. The Bills do not want to be a get right game for the Jacksonville offensive line. They want to keep the pressure coming and they want to continue to sac Lawrence, who's already been sac seven times this season across two games.
Absolutely. And I think as I mentioned, that's sort of the first place I'd say is a key for the Bills is to really help their coverage units with shutting down this passing game because with that preference for the Jaguars to kind of hit those deep hole shots and the Bills kind of still working through developing a new safety tandem in the back end and how they play together in Damar, Hamlin and Taylor Rap, I think it's really about, you know,
a hay offensive pass rush, you know, organic four man off offensive pass rush or simulated four man offensive pass rush with an end dropping into coverage or tackle dropping into the middle hook zone and somebody else coming from the edge. You got to get it done because the routes they want to hit are two plus second developing routes.
And I think that's the one thing that has been such a criticism of Trevor Lawrence, not just this season, but has in most of his career is that he tends to leave clean pockets too early. He he tends to sometimes run into sacks. And he tends to sometimes, you know, put the ball in the dirt when when he's rushed and kind of scrambling. So I think those are all things that the Bills defense can really feast on.
But I agree that it's going to be the kind of thing that's going to test the Bills over the top. Yeah, I think that the, you know, that's kind of that's all I have about the Jacksonville Jaguars offense. I think they're going to try some screen game stuff. They're going to try to do to hit the Bills and in the linebackers. I think it's a huge benefit to the Bills that the Jaguars top tight end target Evan Angrum is out.
He had a decent game against the Bills in London last year, but he he's not going to be out out there. So, you know, next man up for them in Brenton Strange, who's looked solid. So I think that they're probably going to try to manipulate that for the second level and hit some of those shots as well as as I mentioned the screen game and then over the top. Yep, absolutely. JJ, I think that's a good point to transition over to the other side of the ball here.
And let's talk about what J a 17 and this Buffalo Bills offense is going to do against this Jacksonville defense. JJ Jacksonville's defense has been stout when it comes to points allowed this season. They did a great job against Miami in week one, though we saw what Miami was in week two on Thursday night. I do think it begs the question is is Miami's offense just not deep enough, right?
And that's only a question we're going to get answered as the season goes on to produce the way they produced last season. And then they played, what was it Cleveland, I think? Yep, Cleveland in week two. And DeSean Watson looked great in the first half of that game and then looked like DeSean Watson and terrible in the second half of that game.
So the Jacksonville Jaguars defense JJ is is a solid unit and stats over two weeks don't necessarily tell the full story of this group because again, there's names on the roster. They've got a very good pass rush, a strong defensive line. They have been middle of the road and pressure rates middle of the road against the run. But this is a team again that seems to find a different gear and level of success when they play the bills. And to me, JJ, that's going to start in the past game.
Now, the bills are going to want to run the ball. Everybody knows that Brady is going to want to try to run the ball and this Jacksonville defense. And again, they have been middle of the road there. But the Jaguar secondary is going to present some opportunities for the bills in man coverage to get some get some shots downfield. The Jags play man coverage JJ at a 52.4 percent clip, which is one of the highest in the league. And there are two outside corners Tyson Campbell and Montero Brown.
They play press man. It rates at 62 and 54 percent respectively. My mind JJ immediately goes to what are we going to see at a Keon Coleman here? Because the book on Coleman is that he kind of disappears against press man. At least he did in college and the bills, I think, rightfully so, have given him a large chunk of the snap share to allow him to get his legs underneath him in the pro game.
This is going to be such an interesting test for Coleman JJ, because it is literally a scheme and personnel that is built to exploit his greatest weakness, at least his greatest weaknesses, according to his draft report coming out of college. For me, JJ, I think the bills will have success running the ball, but this game is all about taking taking their shots in the past game, too. And I think it's going to be interesting to see how these pieces and parts match up for that.
So where do you want to start? You want to start with the past catchers, or do you want to start with the run game, as far as keys to the game for this bill's office? I think we should start with the run game. I think, you know, it's no surprise to the listeners that JJ wants to start with the trenches. I think that, you know, for this Jacksonville Jaguars defense, what we should be paying attention to is those defensive tackles. Devon Hamilton and Eric Armstead.
Eric Armstead can have some play out at defensive end. Are there front two, two kind of players? And then they have Jeremiah Ledbetter and Roy Robertson Harris coming in behind. It's a non-remarkable defensive tackle group. I think that their defensive end, Josh Heinz Allen, who, by the way, you know, changed his name because our Josh Allen was better and he was getting no publicity at all as Josh Allen, the defensive end.
So Josh Heinz Allen and Tramon Walker, or Trayvon Walker, a first pick from a couple of years ago, they're good. They're very good. I think that there's a lot of danger there for the bills. It's going to be a true test of Deion Dawkins and Spencer Brown now both making, you know, 15 tackle and money in the league to shut down this pass rusher or neutralize those guys in the run game.
But I think that there's, you know, the defensive tackle limitation for the Jaguars is that they have guys that are just sort of boulders in the run game, but they're not penetrating style defensive tackle. So I think that setting the depth of the pocket is going to be easier for the bills, interior offensive line that it may have been in previous, you know, matchups, but with Christian Wilkins leaving the Dolphins, I don't think that they've been truly tested so far this year.
So it's going to be an interesting, interesting matchup. I think that there's opportunities, especially because Trayvon Walker and Josh Heinz Allen can over pursue. So if there's a week for the bills to do some kind of tunnel screens, mid screens, different things that are taking advantage of a fast charging defensive end, I think this is a great, great week for it.
Additionally, I think that one, you know, one thing that I think is worth noting about this base four, three defense for the Jaguars is that they are missing their top corner Tyson Campbell. He's on IR for this week. And so they're playing Monterre Brown and Ronald Darby, who the bills, you know, was a former second round pick of the bills. But I would say is, you know, has had a good career, but it is late in his career and probably has lost a step as the top outside corners.
And then their nickel back is Jerry and Jones, who has looked promising, but is also very young. So there's definitely opportunities in coverage. Their safety pair is Andre Cisco out of Syracuse and many of our listeners probably have affinity towards Syracuse. He's been a great kind of talent in the league since he enters about six feet to two 10, which you like your standard traditional safety. And then Antonio Johnson, who's sort of long and lean.
He came out of Texas A&M last season and has been solid, but I would say not spectacular. So Andre Cisco is really the talent back there. They've done all savagery. They picked up in free agency from Green Bay, but he's been questionable all week and got dinged up last week. So to Sean Gibson seniors on their team, but he's suspended right now. They have Andrew Wingard, who's on IR. So like they're a little bit banged up in a couple of different layers in the defense. Absolutely.
And with some of these mix and match depth pieces that they've got going in the secondary for themselves, I think it's a great opportunity, JJ, to exploit the play action game. Josh Allen, great play action QB play action has been featured so heavily in this Joe Brady led scheme. And this is an area where through two games consistently, the Jaguars have really struggled against opposing units. The Buffalo bills, JJ, are number one in passing efficiency out of play action through two weeks.
And the Jacksonville Jaguars are number 24 in defending play action passes. I think especially with Campbell out, there's going to be some opportunities for the bills to exploit. You know, an interesting area where the Jacksonville Jaguars have shown a lot of strength is defending opposing teams tight ends. Currently by DVOA, they're a top 10 unit number nine specifically, shutting down opposing teams tight ends.
Now again, they've played the Browns, and they have played the the dolphins that because of the injuries to who's the tight end for Cleveland and Joku. Yeah. Yeah. And because of the injuries there and because of the lack of any meaningful tight end talent in Miami, I do not consider John Doosmith a great tight end talent. A lot of that could be just, you know, stat sort of skewing because it's a small sample size against two really bad teams.
So if I'm the bills, I'm not letting that deter me from featuring Dalton Kincaid, especially with his ability to get space against man coverage and exploit the scene. So I want to see a lot of play action, dude. I want to see James Cook get his touches out of the backfield in the passing game as well. And I really want to see a heavy dose of Dalton Kincaid, which will hopefully open things up for the bills a little bit downfield.
And JJ is we are two games into the season, and there is a lot to be surprised and excited about about this Buffalo Bill squad. We still have not seen a team that is going to that has tested them and their ability to really push the ball downfield in the passing game.
I don't know if the Jaguars are going to be that opponent this week, but it still remains to me an unanswered question is how effective is this Brady scheme when teams decide to load up the box and shut down the run, how effective it can be and how effective these skill position players can be on the bills and exploiting the middle to intermediate and deep parts of the field in the past game.
I'd like to see some of those concerns on my part well this game, but I do think just because of the way this Jacksonville defense is stacking up from a profile standpoint, I think we're going to see a heavy dose of James Cook in the run game, heavy dose of James Cook in the past catching game, play action and then feature of Dalton Kincaid. Yeah, I think that what we haven't seen, I mean, the season is so, so, you know, new still with only two weeks in the books for the bills.
But what we haven't seen yet is a game where the Buffalo bills have to answer the question of, you know, finding a new way to win with their past only, right, like every single week, even even in a comeback win against the Cardinals week one, who in week two showed a lot more, you know, juice. So whether it was an outlier or they're a much better team is still kind of set to be answered.
But the bills haven't had to answer the question of how do you win without James Cook getting seven or eight yards per touch? They've been incredibly efficient on skipping third down altogether, but they've been pretty poor on third down when they've had to convert them. The bill's offense has across two weeks. So it's really for them, their ball control moving down the field has been on first and second down. And then they've been sort of stalled if a team can get them to third.
I think that the Jaguars have the kind of defense that, you know, as you mentioned, are excellent in defending the tight end, the middle middle of the field. And I think that's because their linebackers, uh, FOIA, a Luikun and, um, Devin Lloyd, Devin Lloyd has, has looked outstanding this year. I think that you can pour a lot of dirt on the Jaguars for their performance, but you can't necessarily pour any dirt on either of the linebackers. FOIA, a Luikun or Devin Lloyd have looked awesome.
Chad Mooma, um, is their kind of third linebacker that'll come in situationally. He's, he's familiar with Josh Allen having played together at Wyoming. Um, I think for one season, uh, yeah, so it's the kind of thing where like they have some skilled players and they have kind of the alternative to what the bills have, which is all of their linebackers are healthy right now. So they get to pick from their best talents and they have some talent there.
So I don't expect the bills to be able to manipulate or hurt them in that middle range. It's really, I think, gonna be closer to the line of scrimmage and then over the top behind the corners in front of the safeties is where the bills are probably gonna make their most hay, but, but we'll see. I think that, you know, the Cleveland Browns, even with, you know, uh, Watson at quarterback looking like Dashaun Watson has looked, which is inconsistent and pretty awful at times.
Um, they were able to get like six or seven people touches and over 50 yards, um, in that game against the Jaguars as low scoring as it was. So there's definitely opportunities, I think that, you know, um, the weakness of this D defensive team is probably at the tackle position. Uh, and then also it's, it's in the corners. Um, those are the two places I would attack is if you're going to run the ball, establish the run, go up the, you know, go up the gut.
And then if you're going to, um, go over the top, you could probably make some hay against these corners. Absolutely, man. Absolutely. I think that is, is efficient a breakdown JJ we can give on this game.
Um, cause again, so many, so many of the Jags bills games that they have played in recent memory have had nothing to do with the matchup on paper and everything to do with the game script and some of the weirdness of the game script that they've encountered the London factor last season, whatever the hell happened in Jacksonville a couple of years ago when the Jags were still under urban Meyer.
Like there have just been a lot of odd game scripts between these two teams where the matchup on paper never really seemed to come to fruition on the field. So, so I am ready, my friend, if you are to move on to some predictions, sure to go wrong to wrap this thing up. Are you ready to land this plane, my friend? Zoom, zoom. Yeah. Um, yeah.
I mean, just to kind of recap for everybody, the last three times these teams met, uh, the bills lost to the Jaguars 10 to three in the, in the first season of, of, uh, coach McDermott being at the helm where the Tyrod Taylor brought them to break the drought. They got a wild card matchup against the Jaguars, uh, and lose in a completely inept offensive outing in, in Jacksonville, um, 10 to three. Then they met in, uh, London last year. Oh, did they meet one more time? Oh yeah.
Before, urban Meyer, urban Meyer, didn't the urban Meyer go away? The one in 16 and the bills were the only team he beat. He went to, I want to say he went like two and 11 and they can't him. Then they can him. So one of his two wins as a, as an NFL coach were against these Buffalo bills. Um, when they went to Jacksonville again, they traveled to Jacksonville, uh, and lost that game nine to six, which was absolutely abysmal. And that was a game that Josh Allen, our Josh Allen played in.
And so did their Josh Allen before he changed his name. Uh, and that was the Josh Allen intercepts Josh Allen game. Yes. And so their Josh Allen played very well on that game. He destroyed the bills and it was a, um, it was one of the hardest games to watch, I think as a bills fan. When you know what Josh Allen J 17 is capable of because the offense could literally get nothing done that day.
And then of course last year, 25, 20 in LA or LA in London, um, both start with an L, and the bills got an L. And so it was the kind of thing where after the first first two drives, the bills were out Matt Milano and Dequan Jones, the entire center of their defense was gutted. Greg were so didn't even suit up for that game because he was injured. And so again, it was the kind of thing where the bills off or defense couldn't seem to stop them. The bills offense just couldn't seem to connect.
There was a number of timely drops in that game. That was another game that I think they were trying to force feed Stefan Diggs and it wasn't going well. Yeah. And that will not be an issue this game. But I mean, between these two teams, you've done a great job running through the recent history. Um, if you are a gambler as myself, the under feels like a good play. And then the, the over under here feels is at 45.5 points.
And then the spread on this game, JJ, the bills have not covered the spread in the last two games they've been favored against the Jags. And the spread here opened at five and it's pretty much stayed consistent at five. It's gone up to five and a half back down to five. This is a relatively stable line throughout the course of the week is, is folks have started to put money on this game.
So I think there's a couple of factors going into that one recent history to again, you look at the Jaguars on paper. It is hard to imagine how and why they would start 0 and 3 at this particular point. And I think there is still some doubt in the betting market that what we've seen from the bills over the first two weeks is real. They've played two bad defenses. Arizona is a bad defense.
And I think Miami with all the turnover they had on their roster is also shaping up to look like a pretty bad defensive unit this season. So folks want to see what they do against a defensive unit that's got a few more names on the roster and a little bit more health to its name. So it'll be very interesting to see JJ, you want to start with final score? Sure. Yeah. I think that, you know, the Buffalo bills are going to eclipse 30 again.
I think that their goal for this week, there's two things that I think you should really think about if you're a Bill's fan about this game coming up on Monday. One is that the bills are coming off of extra rest. And that is a pretty significant advantage. It's four days extra rest. They almost get a full week, you know, of more time to prepare for this game. So that always helps in the NFL when the margins are so thin having just a few extra days. So that's one.
And then two is the will the desire of this bill's team to for those who were with the team the last three or four years to make a point that the Jaguars aren't special. And so I think that throughout the media availability, even with, you know, Sean McDermott, his media availability, you know, classic coach, speak, he didn't say much, said almost nothing at all. But he did kind of use like they're a good football team. We got to take them seriously.
I think that his, his notes and the tones of the players is that they're all business this week of proving that the Jacksonville Jaguars aren't the kryptonite for the Buffalo bills as they've appeared to be in multiple meetings and really getting this job done. So I think they're going to come out with a workman like attitude and try to just do their job, do their job, right? And get this one in the books as a W. I think the bills are going to eclipse 30 for a third straight week.
And I think that it's going to be a 31 17 game bills at home under the lights with a very sauced up bills mafia. You are tempting the fates, my friend. I am now, I'm now going to be a six, three punt and punt fest, right? All right. So JJ, I'm going to depart from you a little bit on this. I think Vegas has this reasonably right. I think it's too early in the season to make any bold declarations about either team.
And we know that the first quarter of the season, the way preseason has played out over the past few years, teams are really just figuring stuff out. It would not surprise me if the Jags came in and stole one here because they really need to if they want to keep their postseason hopes alive. Add to the fact that it's been a weird schedule to start the season for the bills here with a traditional Sunday at one than the Thursday game.
Now this long break in the bills, JJ, they've looked rusty coming off of long breaks be at this Thursday to Sunday, Thursday to Monday swing that they're on now or coming off of by weeks. The bills should win this game, but an L would not surprise me. I am going to take both the under on points and I'm going to say the bills don't cover again for the second straight week. I'm going to say bills 24 Jaguars 20.
That would be a, you know, somewhat symbolic, the bills winning, you know, the having lost to the Jaguars in London, 25, 20. I think that it's notable that the bills have not seen these these Jaguars under, you know, this coach or with Trevor Lawrence in Buffalo. And so I think that Bill's mafia, you know, if the bills are able to pull this one out as both Dan and I have predicted, it's all you, my friends, you did it. And so I think that that's a component that we need to consider. Absolutely.
JJ for prop bets. I've got just one prop bet this week for the game. And it is around Josh Allen and his rushing ability. So we know his left hand is hurt. We know that he was featured heavily in the in the QB rush game against Arizona, not so much against Miami because they didn't need him. I have had a lot of my, my bills, mafia and non bills, mafia friends tell me that they feel like this needs to be a Josh Allen takeover type of game.
If in prime time, if the bills are to win, here's the thing though, man, the Jags are number seven and shutting down Qube unscripted QB scrambles in the league this year per NFL next gen stats. They do a pretty good job of bottling up opposing QBs again.
And this is a consistent metric from season to season with them again to a not the most athletic QB got him in week one to Sean Watson was able to use his legs in the red zone against Jacksonville where this is a team defense that really struggles. But for the most part unscripted scrambles, the Jags have done a really good job shutting those down. It's going to be an interesting strength on strength matchup here, JJ. So I've got the over under Josh Allen rushing yards at 27.5 for this game.
Um, so I'm going to smash the over and it's not because I think of anything, I think anything you said is incorrect. I think that absolutely their linebacker core, as I mentioned is one of their bright spots on their whole defense, probably the best unit overall, the best layer of the defense. If you go from front to back for first, third, second and then deep third.
So that linebacker unit, especially if they're using a spy, especially if they have one of the if they have Andre Cisco coming down in the box to try to shorten up the run, he can definitely flow to find Josh Allen on a scramble. So if all of that is true, I think that they're they're absolutely able to minimize the damage.
And this and we haven't mentioned it to this point, the Jaguars are the top man coverage team in the whole NFL after two weeks, they tend to dial up man coverage more often than any other team in the league, which is an aberration and especially has been a problematic determination for any team to do against Josh Allen. Since he entered the league, he tends to just completely destroy man coverage team. So we'll see how they go into this game to defend the bills.
But I would agree with you that those linebackers will definitely be able to minimize the damage of his legs on scrambles. The reason I'm picking over though of that number 27 is because I think that there's going to be some design runs for Josh Allen in this game. I think there are some mismatch opportunities in numbers. If you're able to do like student body left student body right, you know, those big power QB sweeps will be effective against this team.
Because I do not believe that their corners are very good in run support. And so they tend to get washed out and that makes the edges kind of soft. And so I can see the bills using the number advantage. If you're running your quarterback, and you don't have to use your running back, you know, that's an extra tight end. That's an extra jumbo alignment to get in the game and provide that kind of box count beater. So I think he'll go over.
I don't think he will be super effective on the scrambles because of the linebackers, but I don't I do think he's going to get well over 27 yards. I'm going to go under. And I want to say I want to see the same game plan they had for him against Miami while that left hand is still heard. A couple of to your point scripted designed runs in the very beginning, just because we know Josh like it like a prize fighter, he's got to take a hit.
He's got to he's got to get smashed in the jaw every now and then to really wake him up and get him going in the game. So I could see Brady scripting a couple of those things in early. And then after that, letting the traditional running back game do its thing against the squad and let J and let J 17 eat in the past game. So I'm going to say under because like, dude, how with that left hand being the way it is, how much do we really think the bills want to intentionally run him?
This early in the season until that left hand heals up, right? They don't I feel like it's more of a injury management risk management proposition this week with Josh, just because it is only week three. There are 15 weeks and 14 games left for the bills after this. And until they hit their buy, this is their last really weird kind of like long extended week. So until they hit their buy in week, I think it's week 12 is when they're right. It is.
Yeah. And they're not on a normal schedule and they're already banged up at a lot of key positions, most prominently with Josh and that left hand. So I just hope the bills don't do it. I understand that's why I'm taking the under that's really what it is. It's all vibes on this one. I just hope they don't run him. And I hope he chooses to pass the ball and not run, but we'll see. Yeah. Speed. I mean, that that that leads me right into my my prop for this game is passing the ball.
It is a I would like it's a multiple choice question for you, Dan. So it's not necessarily something you could bet, you know, betting lines might not be it, but it is an interesting proposition of these options, which which Buffalo Bills past catcher do you believe gets the most targets in this game? Dalton can get. Is that your answer? No, that's one of the options. It should be Dalton can get. Okay. Yeah. It should be concave or Shakir. And nothing against anyone else that is that is here.
I've seen a lot of bills, mafia, Twitter and bills, mafia threads, by the way, is becoming a space as well. But I've seen a lot of bills, mafia being like, when are we going to get the Curtis Samuel game? When are we going to? When are we going to see like our Debo Samuel packages for Curtis Samuel? And I think there's two things preventing that one. We probably don't realize that he is still healing from that toe injury he got in the preseason.
So I think the bills are managing his reps, kind of have him on a pitch count and they have a plan for him once he is fully healthy later on in the season. So I don't think this is a Curtis Samuel game. The aforementioned Keon Coleman against press man coverage in college was not great. And we know the Jags, regardless of the Tyson Camel injury are going to play man and they're going to press.
So I think this is a rough game for the rook this time around with the exception of like maybe one or two spectacular catches downfield. So that leaves you Mack Hollins, who the bills really have fallen in love with his blocking ability as a pass catcher. And I would I would put forth JJ that if Mack Hollins is your top target in this game, something has gone horribly wrong.
So by process of elimination, that brings me to Dalton Kincaid, who they did a great job scripting early touches for him against Miami and Khalil Shakir. And I go Kincaid because I feel like while this linebacker unit in the safety room could be a uniquely tough matchup for Kincaid, I don't feel like because of the amount of man that they play in Jacksonville, they're going to bracket Kincaid like the dolphins and like the Cardinals have like Kincaid for anyone who is worried about a stat line.
If you watch the film, he is getting wide receiver one treatment from from a lot of opposing defenses. I don't think the Jaguars do that because I don't think that's in their scheme set. I think he's going to get some great one on one opportunities. And again, he's a matchup problem even for the best linebackers and safeties in this league. So I go Kincaid by process of elimination. Absolutely no, that was the of course one of the options.
The options were Kincaid, Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel. So I don't think that there's I don't think we're ever going to see a game like you mentioned where Mack Hollins is the top targeted passcatcher just because of the nature of what his job is on this team. So yeah, I think that, you know, I'm actually going to depart a little bit.
I think it's going to be Khalil Shakir because I think that the with decent safeties, I think the Jaguars can with decent safeties and linebackers, their weaknesses at corner right now. I think that they can they can do enough to try to limit Kincaid. And really, if Josh Allen is reading it right, I think Khalil Shakir is a better man beater in this in the the offensive pass catching unit. I think he's going to be the most separation player.
If we look at next gen stats after this game, he'll probably have more separation on route routes run than anybody else because I agree with you. I think Curtis Samuel is still kind of coming back. He's not playing fully healthy. And the Jacksonville Jaguars are a little bit weak and vulnerable at the edges of the defense.
And then my last prop for you, sir, is Dwayne Smoot revenge game question mark Dwayne Smoot plus or minus half a sack minus only because he's only because he's just coming off the injury the injury report. Excited to get him back though, because of his versatility of both inside and outside. And I think the bills really do need that depth, particularly on the inside in this game. But I think he's a great he's a great chess piece on that line to move around.
We did see Dwayne Carter's snap share against Miami go way, way up from what it did in the first game against Arizona, but they're still they're still working out some stuff with with the Rook there. So I think Smoot gives them a security blanket to flip inside next to Rousseau or Epinezzar or Miller, should they choose to. So I'm still going to say under just because that's a lot to ask for a guy coming off the injury report.
Fair you know we like we like to focus on these interesting relationships with the rosters and that's one of them. Having played his entire career at Jacksonville prior to this right being signed by the bills. So what do you got over under? I'm going to say over because that's why you know I brought the prop to the table. I think it's going to happen. I think we're going to see him. I think that I do agree with you that he you know coming off the injury is a factor of this.
But I think that he was probably pretty close. I think he actually was practicing limited last week. So I think he might have been pretty close to coming and playing for Miami which gives him an extra 11 days to heal up.
And so I think he might be ready physically for this one because I know he'll probably be juiced up emotionally in the same way that Mitch Morris, Gabe Davis you know they'll be feeling it as well because it's always you know I think Von Miller even said it's always good to beat your old team. Yep JJ the familiar faces and new places tour continues here against Jacksonville for short. JJ as always great to pod with you.
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