Welcome back to the Buffalo Bread podcast. It is week 16 and I'm happy to be back. We have a special guest who was a fill-in co-host last week with Brandon, our resident Patriots expert, friend of the show, not friend of the Bills, and of course, as always, the stalwart Dan. And we are, we're going to recap the Bills Lions absolute barn burner that happened a few nights ago and then we're going to discuss the upcoming Bills Patriots matchup, the first of the year happening here in week 16.
Let's go boys. Dan, where you at? I am, I'm ready for this game on Sunday, so full disclosure, Brandon and I are going together. And when this game was at 1pm, we were going to benefit from a balmy 22 degree weather temperature prediction. Now that this game has shifted to 425, we are going to be in single digits, my friend, for the almost the entirety of the game in the 300 section with the best of Bills mafia dealing with the wind and the cold. I can't wait to do it.
But before we can get into that game, happily, humbly wrong about the Detroit Lions game. On that pregame episode, Brandon and I, I think both predicted that while it would be a high scoring game, we thought Detroit was going to pull it out. Brandon, you can't predict the, you can't predict the injury to McNeil mid game or Davis mid game.
And then Montgomery going down of course as well, like a big boon to the Bills, but, but it was injuries aplenty, particularly for the Bills who basically are rolling out a backup secondary in this game as well. So it was a time for these offenses to shine and they did. The reality is, is the Bills were able to get the game script they needed early on with a couple of key defensive stops as the Lions were figuring out their stuff.
And unlike a lot of other game scripts for the Bills where the offense started slow, Allen and company came out red hot. Great opening scripts from Joe Brady. That lead that they built in the first half was, was enough to sustain them after the Lions got back on their back on offense. So we can dig in into into more detail, but JJ to me, it was as simple as that the Bills are such a game script sensitive team that what they did in the first half was enough to sustain them the length of the game.
And that should be scary for other teams as this Bills squad heads into the playoffs for sure. Brandon, what were some of your observations from your pregame takes here? Yeah, so we knew this was going to be a really fun and exciting game to watch. You and I had talked about last time, like, why didn't they flex the game to prime time? Because I think everyone knew it was going to be kind of like this, but you're totally right.
Putting up the 14 points to zero to start the game, put golf on his heels. He threw for a season high 59 and 494 yards, which you'd think any quarterback who throws for 494 yards, almost 500 would have won the game. I mean, they kept it exciting the whole time. So it was just really fun to watch a lot of different players kind of got highlighted a little bit. This is, you know, I wanted to bring up Ty Johnson. So maybe we'll get to that in a little bit. But who's this guy?
Where have you been hiding him? We've been we've been keeping him on ice. Right. It's he's a break glass in case of playing the Lions type of player. Yeah. JJ, what did you see that really stood out? I'll say this. I think that it feels like, and I don't know if this is a good analogy, but I'm going to make it anyway. It feels like when you're you have an appointment, right? And you you realize you're in the area of your appointment.
And it's like, you're like, oh, I got like, I got like an hour and a half before this thing needs to take off. Like, I'm going to find something to do. I'm going to check out this new coffee shop or brewery or whatever. And then all of a sudden you find yourself 10 minutes late to your appointment. That's what the bills game felt like because with two minutes left in the third or in the third quarter closing on the fourth quarter, the bills were up 35 14.
And it felt like the game was all but in the bag. And then they started trading yards for time. They kind of took it out of gear and started trading yards for time. And next thing they know, you know, the the Lions have crept up to within one touchdown with 12 seconds left. And so it was very much, you know, it seemed like they weren't frantic enough at the end for the whole fourth frame until crunch time at the very end, which is not something you can do against these elite teams.
You have to, you know, keep your foot on the gas. And I think pretty early in the fourth quarter, they started trading, you know, yards for for time. And that was maybe not the best move. But I think that at the end of it, all I all I can say is Josh Allen, like he, if he can maintain this level of performance, I don't know, there's a team that can stop them the whole way. Yeah. So except for these Patriots, right?
What I want to say about that is, you know, I made fun of Josh Allen in previous years because he's been the interception king. Like he led the league and interceptions multiple years in a row. They figured it out. I mean, I think it's five interceptions on the season. And what he's doing on the ground is fairly incredible. So that I agree. He is the key to success at this point. He really is.
I mean, completed passes to nine different pass catchers in this game, which JJ, we have we have harped on this point ever since we started this pod at his first iteration is keeping the receipts. When Josh can play point guard and keep opposing teams off balance by distributing the ball to a variety of different targets, he is at his most successful, and that's when you see a lot of those running lanes open up for him.
When teams have to commit to defending multiple options in the past catching game on the field, that's when they got a pull a linebacker to catch a leak, a leak in James Cook out of the backfield or a leak in Ty Johnson. They've got to watch Dawson Knox coming off of his chip block and then heading out into a route. When teams have to commit to those things, it opens up the rush. Lanes for Josh Allen.
And what I found very interesting about this game was that Allen had only been averaging heading into this game about 1.3 scripted runs per game. Brady knew exactly how he wanted to attack this Detroit Lions defense, particularly that linebacker core led by Jack Campbell. And he did it a lot with pass catchers coming out of the backfield and then scripted runs for Josh Allen. I mean, the timing could not have been better for Brady to dial a lot of these up.
And he's really fine tuned his approach to finding what teams are the worst at defending and then rolling that out in the offensive game plan, we need to week, week to week. And that's what's throughout the most of me in the offensive side of the ball. I do want to talk a little bit about defense too, because I think it wasn't it wasn't all trash. The defensive line played well. But JJ offensively speaking outside of Josh Allen.
What did you see that stood out to you the most about this offensive effort play calling running back contributions go for it? Yeah, I mean, I think that it's it's probably one more note on Josh Allen. The think the other thing that he's the extra arrow he's added to his quiver because I like I just have to get this point out.
The extra arrow that he's added to his quiver this season that I had you see a little bit in previous seasons spotty here and there with fits and starts is the when a team dead a case a spy to him.
The fact that he now reliably makes the perfect decision to toy with that spy by using his legs to approach the line of scrimmage and then just dumping it over their head or faking the dump over the head so they jump to try to block the pass and scooting around them like that he's gotten so good at making the perfect best call. And I don't know if it's film study.
I don't know if he's studying, you know, the opponents to know exactly which, you know, trick is going to work on these guys, but that whole, you know, taking advantage of teams dedicating a spy to him by saying, okay, I'm either going to beat your spy up or I'm going to outsmart them. And that's one less defender who's going to be out in the routes, pinching the zones, whatever it might be.
But from a scheme point this game, similar to the Rams game on offense, it was really Joe Brady in his bag, like he picked on the linebackers so ferociously and repeatedly that it was the kind of thing that the Lions could not actually adapt to because they also were injury depleted. I think that narrative has been too played because the bills also had no none of their starting secondary in and that's when you get games that are 48 to 42, 44, you know, 42.
And so it was really like they both were injury depleted units. And so high scoring affair, but really the scheme with Brady, his guys always had an answer and there was always room for yard after catch.
The natural rub routes that he prepares are on the level of Andy Reed's work with with the chiefs, which has been part of the reason they've made it to so many championships and won them is that he always has a plan for that critical third and eight to get somebody open naturally without an egregious pick and that's what I think Brady has been really good at is identifying who is the player that's going to get lost in the in the clutter and
making sure that he has a reliable patch catcher, whether it's Kurt Assamiel, Khalil Shakir, somebody who's coming through that area that's going to scrape their guy off by a Mack Hollins or a Keon Coleman or an Amari Cooper. Mac Hollins is so adept at those rub routes, he really is right and it helps that he's so big bodied, agile and athletic. He really is the perfect decoy in those situations. And he's got really good hair. It's fantastic hair.
Yeah. He's and he's so likable that I feel like the ref see him absolutely demolish somebody on one of those rub routes and they're just like, I didn't mean it. He's so nice. He's all right. I watch his Instagram videos. He's helpful. Yeah, he's he really is. It's really fascinating. JJ, what I liked here and what was a change of tactic from the Rams game was the use of James Cook and Brandon, I know you're a big James Cook guy. It is we have joked, but we're also serious.
The thing that keeps our friendship alive is that you draft James Cook on your fantasy leagues. That's the only thing he had only gotten 45% of the snap share against the Rams, even though he was finding opportunities. Great course correction by Brady to really feature him early and often, but then sustaining his touches throughout the course of the game.
James Cook has had better statistical games to me, JJ, but the way Brady chose to use him and the way that he pinpointed the opportunities he wanted to get Cook involved in the game to me was the most consistent use of cook that we have seen. I would argue since the Dallas game last season in Buffalo, I just really loved how he was deployed. It was there. It answered a lot of my frustrations from the Rams game about how Cook wasn't utilized.
And again, it was to attack something so specific that Brady saw as a weakness in this defense, even pre all those injuries that happened during the game. The way he used to cook to exploit those linebackers in space was absolutely stellar.
So if I love the way he game plan for cook, I know we're a week to week offense, but if I can get me just a little bit more of that here at the end of the season against the paths and the Jets and headed into the playoffs, I think even against a team like Baltimore, that implementation and that usage of cook could really help level the playing field against teams that are defensively a really bad matchup for this bill's offense. Brandon, tell us about your love of James Cook.
Yeah, so it was good for him to reclaim his spot as the RB one for this team because it's been Josh Allen in recent memory, stealing all of the rushing touchdowns and rush attempts. And yeah, I hope that they increase his utilization as we are heading into playoffs, right?
So those five receptions that went to tie Johnson, you know, I'm curious what the backfield is going to look like for this playoff bound bills team, because as we saw in that this past game, four different rushers between Davis, Cook, Johnson, and, you know, 11 rushes himself, Josh Allen. Yeah, I think it's going to look a lot like this. I get again, the only tweak I want to see in JJ, you can hop in here if you think this take is wrong.
The only tweak I want to see is I do want to see a skew a little bit more towards Cook. I have loved his red zone usage this year. Last year he was only in the red zone on about 25% of the bill snaps. This year that has seen an uptick to just over 50% and dude is making it work. About 88% of his total touchdowns this season have come in the red zone.
When he's given those opportunities, the same type of leverage that uses to run and find space in the pass and rush game between the 20s is also working for him in the red zone too. I just as much as I love Ty Johnson, and as much of a home run threat as he can be and we've seen him be and as much as I just love the way Ray Davis runs. To me, James Cook's got to be your 65%, 70% snap usage guy in the playoffs. Otherwise, like, what are we doing here? Right? What are we doing?
Ray Davis and Ty Johnson combined or James Cook. So just put James Cook out there for most of the time. No, I don't disagree with that. I think James Cook is an absolute weapon. And I think he's proven that the one thing I'll say is that when when the bills outside tunnel screen wide receiver stop screens, when the outside stuff is not clicking for them or tight ends to the perimeters are not clicking for them, James Cook is not as effective.
If teams can clutter the middle of the field, then your zone read or your, you know, inside zone, your gap, anything gap or power with James Cook is usually not going as well.
The reason that he was so effective on the limited touches when they did choose to run with him in this game, including breaking one, was that the Lions started spreading their defense towards the perimeter to stop some of the things that the bills were doing with their receivers tight ends and running backs around the edges. And then it, you know, a draw or a quick kind of inside duo was like absolute kryptonite once the Lions started drifting towards the perimeters.
And that that I think is do that every time a team will do it. And to give a quick preview, the Patriots will 100% do that if you start hurting them on the outside. Yep, absolutely. They it's an area of the field that they're terrible at defending and they have to overcompensate for. One final shout out on the offense and then we'll quickly do a couple of quick hits on the bill's defense. How about that offensive line, man?
Like the zero sex allowed thing can be a bit of a juiced up stat because Josh Allen is so evasive and so hard to bring down. But when you look at hurry rate, pressure rate, pass rush win rate, dude, this bill's offensive line is gelled and knock on wood healthy at the exact right time that they need to be. I mean, even with a lean, a lean McNeil going down, he played a majority of that game. Zadaria Smith, a lean McNeil, that is not an easy duo to shut down.
And the bill's just kept Josh clean all day against a really, really potent mix of blitzes and organic four man pressure. I I listen, I had trepidation about the way they were approaching the line in the offseason. I feel very comfortable saying I was very wrong about that. This might be the best offensive line in the league.
Well, and I think too, it's it's what happens when it at least it feels to me having been a Bill's fan for as long as I've been and seen Aaron Kroemer's fingerprints on the team with a previous iteration of the team when they were the NFL rushing leading team. And he was the line coach when Shady was here to now his, you know, reemergence with the bills.
It definitely looks like he has more of his fingerprints on which offensive linemen they put in which spots and who they're choosing to sign and who they're choosing to draft. And I think that that makes all the difference because I don't actually trust Brandon Bean to make offensive line decisions in a telephone booth. But I 100% trust him to make those decisions with Aaron Kroemer.
And this is actually Aaron Kroemer is my favorite offensive line coach in the league after Dante Scarniccia retired, because that I think was the secret to so much of the Patriots previous success during the Brady era was they could pick almost anybody and coach them into a serviceable line and then create an amazing amount of cohesion amongst that line and then kind of plug and play from there. Getting contributions from sixth and seventh rounders and undrafted people is is the way forward.
And this bill's offensive line thankfully is doing that. I don't think anybody on the line is lower than a fifth rounder. Maybe David Edwards. Yeah, yeah, I don't know what David Edwards kind of draft pedigree was. But the team is you know, the line is talented across the board, but their ability to turn some of those undrafted and late round picks into amazing swing, you know, prospects and Alec Anderson and various others is is part of the reason that I'm 100% trusting.
No matter what they choose to do as long as Aaron Kroemer is there, I'm good with this line and it's going to continue to be dominant. Couldn't agree more couldn't agree more. All right, real quick, let's flip it over to the defensive side of the ball for the bills, which was far less positive than the offensive side. Again, injuries reign supreme, particularly in the secondary.
We got a healthy dose of Chair Elam in that game JJ the medicine we have been asking for from this this bill's coaching staff. But I want to start up front because this was the best game for this bill's defensive line that they've had all year. And unlike the Detroit Lions defense, it was a healthy offensive line that was rocking out multiple all pro caliber talent and Ed Oliver absolutely destroying anyone they put in front of him in a one on one matchup.
His getoff the snap JJ was point eight seconds, his fastest recorded time since his rookie season like just absolute fire from at Oliver the whole game the game we've been waiting for him to have because of a slip in production. And it absolutely skyrocketed him to the top of a lot of cumulative and advanced metrics when it comes to pass, pass rush win rate, run stop win rate, quarterback carries quarterback hits.
He had like a Jerry Judy esque type of rise where he was like 29th in a lot of these rankings. Now he's as high as 11th and 12th in a lot of these rankings. It's a great game from at Oliver. Well, and I think that Sean McDermott even mentioned it during his press availability early in the week that somebody asked him what he saw from Ed and he said, can you guys tell him he's he's terrible every week? Because that's what I mean pre Lions game.
A lot of the media attention on that Oliver was where have your where's your production gone? Like you got the huge paycheck and had a good season immediately after being paid. And then this season, where are you? You disappeared and he took that personally. The fact that he reversed pancake Frank Ragnall on that one sack was just that's a very good center. That's like one of the best centers in the league. There's a top center. Got depleted onto his Tukas and and rolled over.
I said it's you said so. It's a good word of the week, folks. Say it to us when you see us will buy you a beer. That's right. Tukas. All right, cool. All right, I think we have we have delved as deeply as we can into this Lions game. A little bit of concern, I think for the future of the defense as we head into the playoffs, but that is maybe a great segue to get into what we are all here for and what Brandon in particular is here for.
Talk about Bill's Pats. Brandon, before we begin to officially get into our pre game here, this trip that we're taking to Orchard Park, correct me if I'm wrong, this is going to be your first live attended professional football game in your life. Is that correct? That is that is correct. And I appreciate changes reaction. I'm so happy for you. No, like that's not like, oh, this guy. No, that's like I'm really excited for you. That's awesome. Yeah. And it's a good way to be for that.
I'm excited to share that with the very welcoming wholesome bills mafia. So I'm sure they will embrace me. Now I'll tell you this, Brandon, having been to many, having been to many bills Patriots games in my life in the post Brady post Bella chick era with your teeth, the Patriots have struggled for a few years. They've been picking higher in the draft. They haven't really sorted out the quarterback. We'll talk about that because I think they really have at this point. They nailed it.
Yeah. The you will be embraced much more warmly in this weekend than if you showed up there 10 years ago. 10 years ago, you might have had a beer thrown at your head. But now people will be like, oh, look at this guy. Get over here. Yeah. Yeah. Who wants a bigger? We should feed our poor Patriots. Your charity case. And like, and it'll be better than bowling ball. It'll be awesome for you as long as you're not like six rings, bitch, you know, like, yeah, that'll be cool for you until you.
Well, you know, you can do it. You know, if fluids are flowing, sometimes judgment can be impaired. So they'll still they'll still be pleasant. You might just get some sneers. I just hope there's no snow in the stands because I don't want to get pelted with snowballs. Yeah. Very real risk. That is truly a risk. We have been JJ. We've been together one post Brady Patriots game and it was, of course, the perfect game, the wild card game and minus six degree weather in Orchard Park.
And then I went to another Patriots game with another buddy of mine. It was the Naheem Hines game, the two return post to Marhan. Marhan was at the first place was first play of the game. Yeah. Yeah. The return for that's down to that place was juiced. Oh my God. Some folks were, I'm sure. Yeah, you do.
And it was the it was the one that like Josh Allen post game talking about how one of the like equipment guys told them that it was it was three years, three months and three days since they'd last returned to kick off for a touchdown. Yep. And that was the week after Damar Hamlin had died and been resuscitated. Exactly. Exactly. Oh, that was something special. Yeah. So I so been very fortunate to attend those two games, right?
I'm trying to manifest a little something special into this game, JJ. I'm going to need help from you and all the listeners out there. Like this is a tinkerbell thing. We are very injured in our secondary and we have one Mike hide on the practice squad. I am trying to manifest into existence a Mike hide practice squad elevation for this game so that I can see Mr. Hide play at least one more time in Orchard Park in my lifetime. I'm hope I mean I'll be there with you.
I'll tell my buddy Kevin to wear his Mike hide jersey and everything to let's make it happen to let's make it happen. All right, let's dig into this thing. JJ dealers choice. We will start with Bill's offense, Pat's defense or vice versa as we get into this pregame here. I mean, let's start with the hot hand and Bill's offense versus Pat's defense because it's it's the kind of thing we're like, I'm of two minds.
On one hand, I want Josh Allen to continue this like absolutely bonkers, you know, game stretch he's been on where he's gonna set yet another NFL record and have a third consecutive game with two plus, you know, passing and two plus rushing touchdowns. I want that. But then there's the other the other mind which is like, let's save some of this like this isn't maybe the most important.
Let's just have a nice efficient win and go out here in the injury free like we have more important things to get on to. And so, you know, for that, I may be leaning a little bit more towards I'm hoping that the bills, you know, we'll do a little bit more running. I know that the the Pat's defense has some vulnerability to the run, specifically when you get to their edges. They're much, much better than stout in the middle.
Devon Godshaw, Christian Barmore's back like those are good stout run defenders in the in the center gaps. But if you can get outside the tackles and the bills have excellent outside tackle plays in their repertoire, I think you can really make some make some hay in this game. Yeah, I tend to agree with you on that one. I it's it's so hard because like Josh, every time he plays the Patriots, he wants to he wants to throw that 20 point touchdown, right?
Like there is something about him playing for the bills and like knowing the torture and the agony that we went through during the Brady Belichick era that that Brandon's fandom is founded upon. And he just seems to want to destroy this team and at times he has played within himself and within structure to do that. But other times I think of the Mac Jones comeback game where I think Josh threw like two picks and had a had a fumble lost in that game where Josh has played outside of himself.
I'm not worried about Josh playing outside of himself or overextending himself in this game, but he's going to want to look for the big one. And to me, even though this Patriots defense is the 30th ranked by DVOA in the league, they're really good at one thing. And that shutting down the deep pass on the season. They have allowed the third lowest completion percentage on passes of 20 or more yards down the field this year.
I think Josh is going to want to test it and he's going to want to test Christian Gonzalez in particular, who has been the nearest defender in about half of those defended successfully defended pass attempts, but I'm with you. I'd like to see them run the Balmor and I'd like to see him do it do it around the outside tackle. And then I want to see Khalil Shakir eat. I also think Dalton Kincaid, they're going to be very tempted to use him up the same.
He came back from injury in that Detroit game and JJ, as we've been pointing out, they've been using him as basically a way to extend the field through the middle of the field and exploit the same, which is what he did at Utah to perfection. So I don't think Brady is going to be interested in condensing the field too much, especially if they can't get the get the gap run game going.
I think this could be a game where we see a lot of them are Cooper, a lot of Dalton Kincaid and a lot of can Coleman downfield strikes one after the other. I mean, I could see a situation where all three are running some sort of post or vert route and Josh just picks the one that's most dope. Yeah, no, I like that. I would say the other piece that and you know, we can certainly flip over to Brandon and let him tell us what he thinks about. I want to hear about Brandon. The Patriots defense.
But I think that another, a couple of other things that the offense should focus on is motion, under center play action, and then variable the rushing attack with pace and tackle pulling. We're talking about getting around the outside, getting to the edges. The linebackers, I watched the Colts game, the Dolphins game and the Cardinals game, a full game, all 22 footage to prepare for this.
And what I saw was the linebacker specifically to, to Vy can get frozen on play action and can get sucked up on some different kind of motion and play action type stuff. So run fakes are a good way. And to the point where like the one thing you cannot do against the dolphins as a linebacker is creep towards the line of scrimmage to leave a void behind you that Waddle or Tyree Kill can can fit into. And they did that repeatedly.
I think that was a big problem in the Miami game for the Pats was every time, you know, or not every time he wanted it accessible because that's to his whole bread and butter. But many times, especially on critical third downs, they had some sort of play action or motion and then the linebackers crept up Ellis and and to Vy specifically and just right behind them, you know, Waddle or Hill filled or John O Smith. And so I think that the tight ends also have opportunities here as well.
And then just one other note, anytime you can get Keon Coleman or Mari Cooper covered by Christian Gonzalez, which I think is going to be often run to their side. I like Christian Gonzalez as a cover. I think he's one of the best ones in the league. He's great. But I think he actually plays a little bit smaller than his six foot 200 pound frame when it comes to fitting the run. And both of those players play bigger than their frame when blocking for the run. Coleman in particular.
All right, Brandon, enter the chat here. Tell us about your vaunted Patriots defense rank 30th in the league and DVOI. So you know, it's an interesting metric to look at. The Patriots are better defensively against the past than they are against the rush. So like I'm kind of surprised by your take that they are going to be pitching it more to Dan, I think you said Cooper and Coleman. When you look just back at last week, Cooper had zero targets for no receptions.
Keon Coleman only had two targets. So I'm almost expecting because the Patriots are better against the past, we have Christian Gonzalez in the backfield covering that deep threat. I think what's going to happen is Josh Allen is going to be doing these little check downs, you know, to all these different running backs that you have. But you know, don't hear what I'm not saying. The Patriots are going to lose this game. Nobody nobody's projecting a big upset, you know, from New England here.
And I think you all need to think about keeping Josh Allen healthy for what comes next, which isn't a whole lot. Right. Like after this game, you're going to see the Patriots again in two weeks. So let's let's focus on keeping Josh Allen healthy. He doesn't need to run as hard as he has been running. Let's let's see what Ty Johnson has. Let's see if Ray Davis can earn himself a bigger piece of the pie. He's got to be doing better than, you know, about two and a half yards per carry, right?
And they want to see more than that to continue to give him the touches. But what I also want to say is that in my fantasy football semifinal matchup, I am playing against Josh Allen. So I'd really prefer if he didn't throw the ball and just did the little check downs and let the running backs do their work. That's really what I'm open for. It's valid. It's valid.
And honestly, if the Patriots, if some key pieces of the Patriots were not getting healthy at this time, I would totally agree with you. I think this would be a James Cook feature game. I think though, and listen, the bills have run into this before against the Patriots, where they've gotten key pieces back at exactly the moment they're playing the bills and how you think that game flow is going to go goes the opposite.
Because finally the Patriots have the dudes they want to plug into that situation. And I think Barmore is absolutely one of those guys for sure. And I think they're I think, listen, I also think there's going to be an element, Brandon, you mentioned it, where the bills, they want to they want to put Josh on ice by the end of the third quarter.
So I could see them potentially looking to attack early and often downfield, maybe throw the ball where Christian Gonzalez ain't, which is why I'm thinking Kincaid, Cooper and Coleman all become factors, because those are their three arguably best deep threats currently sitting on the squad. So the bills could want to get up early, sit some of their guys, truck up another division win, but but we'll see. But I think the run game is going to go.
It's going to have to be the way JJ describes it simply because what has been on film for the Patriots over the last three weeks will not apply to this game and their run defense game because they're getting some key pieces back. I will say, though, I think that there's there's a lot of opportunity for the bills because the Patriots defensive secondary has been good against the pass.
But I don't think the Patriots defensive secondary has faced a team with as many as many targeted opera like playing against the dolphins. The Patriots coverage was suffering a little bit just that they had Waddle Hill and John Smith and then at one back out of the backfield, a Chan. That's four target. That's four possible targets. The bills have shown that they'll use seven or more in any game.
And so they're going to probably just pick whatever they think the weakest coverage person is and hit that match up as hard as they can as many times as they can. So this might be one of those games like last week where Ty Johnson, everyone's like, where did Ty Johnson come from? This might be a week where all of a sudden everyone's like, oh, Dawson Knox went for nine for 140 in the touchdown or two. Like, well, exactly. Well, exactly.
Right. And I want to be clear, like, as we're saying, the Patriots are good against are good against the pass. That's relative to how this defense is performing overall against the run. Like this is still the 31st ranked by DVOA pass defense in the league. And they really struggle outside of defending the deep ball. And again, that's because of Christian Gonzalez. This is a unit that really struggles against the pass at a variety of levels of the field.
So I think the bills are going to be able to exploit thirds and sections of the field with all the pass catchers. They can roll out not even factoring in running backs, which the Patriots are ranked 23rd in the league and passing and passing defense efficiency in defending. So let me just give you guys the numbers here. Overall rushing efficiency. Patriots are absolutely average middle of the pack, right? 1717 than the league overall passing efficiency and defense. They're 28th.
And I mentioned already 31st and DVOA. I really do think the bills are going to be able to do what they want largely in the passing game. They're just going to have to get more creative if they want to exploit some of those deep routes that they were against the Rams and they were against the Lions for sure. All right. Do we want to flip it? We want to talk about the other side of the ball here. All right. So let's talk about Bill's defense against Brandon.
We're going to let you lead in Drake May. What are your thoughts at this point in the season on Drake May? He has shown some promise. He also has a current active streak of I think it's seven games in a row, six games, seven games in a row, throwing an interception. So he's kind of hit that rookie wall at this point. But we have talked about him being not necessarily maybe Josh Allen, but potentially Justin Herbert, which is a really good QB to have. So let's start with Drake May, man.
What are your thoughts and what do you think he's going to do against this injured, depleted Bill secondary? Yeah. I love, you know, as a Pidgeots fan, what I'm seeing from Drake May. It's it's still hard to watch, though, because I don't like the volatility of the situation that he's in without a lot of offensive weapons. And with a very, very Swiss cheese like offensive line. So it's impressive. He's playing as good as he's playing.
Given the circumstances, he's obviously doing a lot better as he's developing chemistry with, you know, I think Jalen Polk and Hunter Henry, especially those those are kind of the two guys who I think have the biggest potential, you know, in terms of being in the red zone. So again, you know, I just really hope that he stays healthy, you know, long enough to get to play the field with whoever comes in and probably the first round of this upcoming wrap. One of the top three picks.
So yeah, we'll be a little bit nervous for this one, only because I agree with you. I think the May Hunter Hunter Henry connection is strong. And the bills for all of their their faults and they have many on defense, they really do struggle against defending opposing team tight ends. And Matt Milano taking the large chunk of snap share that he is as he works his way back from Dorian Williams, it doesn't necessarily help that equation.
And Henry has had some pretty strong games against the bills with a subpar Mac Jones as is QB in the past. So is it enough to win them the game? No. But is it enough to maybe extend some drives against a bill's defense that struggles to get off the field on third down and maybe keep Josh off and give you guys some hope?
I think absolutely. But Brandon, I think you nailed it with that offensive line, the offensive line that the Patriots were rolling out in this game, 30th in the league and past block win rate, 31st in the league and rush stop win rate. So they are not giving their skill position players a whole lot of advantageous opportunities when they are when the ball is snapped. It's a lot of Drake may just having to figure it out and really improvise, right? JJ, what about you?
What do you think this bill's defense is going to do against this really, really depleted offense? So, yeah, I think that there's going to be for Bill's fans, there's going to be an annoying amount of completions that extend drives to Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper. There's also probably going to be at least one, maybe, maybe three to five, Ramon Dre Stevenson runs where you're just like, he always does that too. And then there's going to be two to four, Antonio gives out.
Let's like listen back to see if I get all these numbers perfectly right. Two to four, Antonio Gibson, third down, like quick dump offs that he's going to turn into something amazing, because Antonio Gibson has actually punished the bills at different from different teams. And so he's a player that has been a little bit of kryptonite towards Sean McDermott. So it's all going to really come down to tackling. I like Drake may having watched a bunch of his games at this point.
I think that he's like, I think that the Herbert comp is super appropriate. But I think he's got a little bit more of that dog in him when it comes to his willingness to kind of mix it up and use his legs and things like he looks like Josh Allen in his rookie season as a runner more often minus the hurdles. So yeah, yep, you're talking dirty to me. The last thing you said, or you said he looks like Josh Allen. Yeah, give me more of that.
I'll give you I'll give you even more, which I'll say he looks like Josh Allen in his rookie season with less crazy running. But so his running looks similar, but his throwing is better. Rookie Josh Allen was not a good throw. Not a good throw at the football. He was way off on a lot of things. And may looks more like Herbert as a rookie than Josh Allen is a rookie when it comes to where he's putting the ball and how his touch passes specifically.
This is a quick aside, but do you guys hold your breath every time Josh Allen tries to hurtle somebody? Yes, it's it's it's such a why because he does it a lot. Is it way too many times like an alarming amount? And those are the plays where somebody gets really hurt. Right. Yeah, no, he he if he wasn't if it wasn't confirmed that his skeleton is adamantium and he has a healing factor like the Wolverine, I don't I think we'd all be much more worried.
Listen, Josh is going to find out that his agility has left him the same way all of us old ass 40 year old men do. I was playing in a summer softball league a couple of years ago. And my the last iteration of me playing softball was maybe 15 years before that. And man, I could I could I could easily score from second to home on a single knocked into whatever area of the outfield you could think of. And I found myself a couple of years ago trying to score from second to home.
The throw beat me by a good 10 feet. But you know what I thought I was going to do? I'm just going to jump over the catcher. Nope, because I'm 40 and realize that part of my athleticism had left me maybe 12 years earlier. I do this really funny odd one footed para wet when I realize my frame won't get off the ground and I'm embarrassingly tagged out. Josh is going to find that out the hard way.
One of those moments that 27 to 37 when you try to hurdle an NFL player is going to look a lot different. Yeah, absolutely. You know, as a person who start who picked up rugby for the first time at 35. I can say that was a terrible choice to for my old frame. I just you play rugby. I did play rugby for two seasons from 35 to 37. And then last year I had a three and a half hour shoulder surgery to repair the damage of my last rugby game. Oh boy. Are you a second rower or I was a seven.
Oh, oh my goodness. I was spelt. So I have no idea what you guys are talking about. Yeah, this is now the now the. We're going to spin off and do a different podcast on rugby. I'll just leave you guys alone. It's fine. So flipping back to the bills Patriots game, though, just a note on the bills defense versus the Patriots offense. You mentioned the offensive line, Brandon, you said Swiss cheese.
And I know like we always give the caveat that pro football focus is not to be all and all, but they are a consistent ratings, you know, source. They put numbers out. They put numbers on things and we can use them to sort of, you know, trendset. I just looked as like curious, what are the PFF rankings for the Patriots linemen? So they have the 80th out of 80 rated tackles in Jacobs, right tackle. They have the 42nd out of 42 center in Brown at the pivot.
The 74th out of 75 rated left guards and Robinson. And then the 72nd out of 80 left tackles and low. And I know they have some people on IR, they have some injuries. So it's this is not their preferred top unit. And the unit has shuffled and changed throughout the season, just recently becoming more consistent. So they've developed a little bit of that. But without Michael on when you at right guard, like I it's the worst line I've seen this season.
Yeah, it really does feel like the bills should be able to get adequate pressure on Drake May. Keep them in a bit of a pass rush cage, right? Because he will he will dip out. He will work his way around the edge similar to Josh and in similar in a way to how Justin Herbert is now running the ball in in LA this year. But organic four man standard rush. Confuse your looks pre snap. Drop unexpected guys back post snap. Drop seven. And like, let me beat you with his brain and not as athleticism.
And that's what McDermott has been so good at scheming up against young up and coming QBs. Even when you look at his record against QBs with three or less seasons in the league. I mean, it's just stellar when he has put together as far as a win-loss record. So I think this could be a game where the McDermott special of mixing your looks, mixing your coverage could work.
Though I will say may for a rookie QB really good against cover two zone really good against cover six, which the bills like to run a lot too. So that's the only caveat I would put on that four man rush has to get home if you're going to drop back and play zone, particularly with a beat up secondary that's likely to feature Kyrie Lim again. Well, and I think the more effective coverage needs to be a blended zone man concept where they they've they did in the past.
They played in a few of the earlier season wins where they would have half field zone, half field man and different things like that. Mixing coverages, having safety open and safety closed on the same concept, you know, middle field open, middle field close in the same snap, switching and rotating because yeah, like I said, he reminds me of Josh Allen with the running.
He reminds me of Herbert with the throwing, but he has better decision making than I think either of those guys in the rookie season. Absolutely. All right, guys, are you ready for prediction? Sure to go wrong. Our honored guest, Mr. Brandon Bennett. Here is what you have unfolding before you. The Buffalo Bills open this game as 14 and a half point favorites.
That line now according to draft Kings is 14 in favor of the bills over under on this game is 46 and a half points, the bills are ridiculous minus 1000 on the money line to win. So Brandon, let's start with you. Final score prediction for this game, sir. I'm going to go ahead and give the bills 41 to a modest Patriots six. Damn. I think I think Ramon Dre will get them close enough twice on the ground or Antonio Gibson to kick in a few field goals.
I think they'll get close enough for a long, a long one, but Sly will probably miss that. So yeah, 41 to six. Dude, do you even want to go to this game? Are you okay? So I told you, I mean, I told you in fantasy playoffs, I'm playing against Josh Allen. So I'm going to be very excited if, you know, Josh Allen doesn't do a whole lot, which as a Patriots fan, you know, it all works out. It all comes full circle. Amazing. JJ, what about you? Score prediction? Yeah, so that's that's pretty bold.
I know that the Patriots have like one of the leagues, one of the league worst offenses and tend to get off the field on third down and in the red zone or kicking field goals more than almost anybody. But I just, I don't know, man, I've seen some improvements from May and I think that this bills secondary, especially if they're missing a few pieces in the safeties or outside corners can be had a little bit.
And I've liked some of the, you know, wide receivers for the Patriots and I'm more afraid of the tight ends. I've got the bills winning 38-21. I think it's one of those games that is way, way farther apart than the final score indicates and that maybe the bills are leading early in the fourth, you know, 30, 35 to seven or 35 to 14. And then the Patriots score kind of a garbage time touchdown to make it look closer.
So I think the Patriots are going to use a heavy dose of running back screen game, particularly with Gibson, which the bills are awful at defending. We've already talked about their propensity to lose matchups against tight ends as well.
And I think it's going to be enough for, and this is a Buffalo Bills team that that Detroit game aside, they do not control the play clock in the same way and time of possession in the same way that they did last year when they were second in the league in total time of possession owned after Brady took over this year. There's 17. I mean, a lot of it is because they can score so quickly.
But I think a lot of it has to do with the fact that this Buffalo Bills defense, regardless of caliber of competition, cannot get off the field on third down just can't do it. And I think the Patriots have enough to annoyingly JJ to your point earlier, extend some drives. I think the bills pull it out, but I don't think they cover. I think 14 is ridiculous spread to have in a professional football game. I've got bills 27 Patriots 17 in this game.
I think they're going to do enough to make this annoying and make it closer than we want it to be. And listen, division games are always weird. Strike mays first time playing in Buffalo against Josh Allen. I think there's going to be some extra juice there. Yeah, you guys are both wrong. I'm right. You're wrong. We appreciate you. If that's true, I hope I hope you're right, Brandon. I hope you're right. That's a better game for me to watch.
Well, if if if it was if the result is Brandon's prediction, it's going to be a four quarter party in high mark like it was in the playoff game, the perfect game. Like Dan, we were what we were sweating it for like the first 17 minutes until the until the like a hide red zone back and you know, center fielder pick off of Mack Jones in the end zone. And that that literal moment, nobody was worried for the rest of the game. And it was just a three quarter party. Yep, absolutely.
Lots. We're going to sing hopefully Brandon, if it goes the way you you think is going to go, we'll be singing a lot of Mr. Brightside in the stands for sure. For sure. All right, prop bets. I've got one. I've got one. It's actually about the Patriots. So I mentioned it before. Drake may seven consecutive games confirmed NFL next gen stats, where he has thrown at least one interception that is the longest current active streak of the year.
Does he throw another one to a Buffalo Bills defense that has failed to turn over their opponent in the last two weeks after living off of turnovers all season? So over under Drake may have an interception. I'm going to go over. Because I yeah, one, I think it's it's going to be a linebacker more than a defensive back in this game. And I think it's going to be when he's targeting one of the I think it's going to be an under pressure throw to Hunter Henry or Austin Hooper that role or not.
Or just sneaks and grabs. Yeah, Bernardo is so good at that. He's so good at trailing those seam routes for tight ends. It's amazing the Bills are not better at defending tight ends with him on the roster this year. It really is. Brandon, what about you? Drake may over under half an interception. Is he going to throw back? Yeah, I think over because I think he's going to be trying to get the ball out quick. I think we're going to see a lot of pressure on him.
And so it's almost going to be one of those like volleyball set interceptions where, you know, a rusher pops the pass up into the air and then the defender scoops it and snags it. So that's what I think it's going to be. OK, I'm going to go over to just because the Bills are due and like it's a rookie QB playing in Buffalo. That's a tough environment. Even though I think the game will be closer than we think I think may may probably throw us one. All right, JJ Brandon, either of you have a prop.
I've got one. Just one. I while watching this, the the Patriots watching the Patriots games prior, they are remarkably good at special teams as our most teams that get kicked too often. You know, they get a lot of practice. Yeah. So and that's, you know, something that should be Hall of Famer Steve Tasker says all the time is that teams who get scored on a lot tend to be really good at returning kicks.
I have over under a half of a special teams touchdown, this being one of the better special teams units in the league. You've pulled this one out a couple of times this year. I just feel like it's going to happen on the boat. I drink the cooling. They're terrible. Yeah, they're bad. It's so bad. They're bad. They're just bad at it. Right. Brandon, I'll give this one to you first over under special teams touchdown for the Patriots is that we're asking. Yeah. Over under what?
Over under half a touchdown. So will the Patriots score a special teams touchdown? No, I'm going to stand by my score prediction. I don't think the Patriots get any touchdowns. A man of principle and consistency. I like it. I'm also going to go under just because like, God, that'd be terrible. Like the last Patriots game I saw was Naheem Hines scoring two touchdowns. Yeah. Now I'm going to have to suffer through someone on the Patriots doing it. I can't. I karma please.
You've done enough to me as a bills fan. All right. So no Marcus Jones punt return TD. No, no, absolutely not. I'm going to say over just because it's my prop. I hate it when you do this prop. It always makes me nervous. It always makes me nervous when you target special teams. Brandon, you got a prop for us? Oh, it's not so much a prop. No, I will. I will. Drake may over under 200 receiving yards. Oh, you mean passing yards? Or yes, passing yards. Thanks. I'm going to say over.
I'm going to say over. Listen, I think I think we're sleeping on Van Pelt. I think he's going to call a game that is going to take a lot of the free space that the bills are going to give him. And I think it's like 270 yards on like 36 attempts. It's one of those types of games. It's like what I like to call the Aaron Rodgers special. So I think it's one of those. I think part of that might have to do with the game script too.
If the bills take an early lead and the Patriots feel like they have to pass and have a sense of urgency, I think you're just going to see May slinging it to underneath routes to Hooper Hunter stuff that the bills have throughout the season given up to teams and said, sure, you know, propagate the ball down the field in six or seven yard chunks because you're going to have to go 14 plus plays and we don't think you're going to do that mistake free.
Right now draft Kings has the player production for Drake may set at 199.4 yards. So Brent Brandon's kind of nailed this one on the prop end of things. I am going to say over though. I just think it's going to be a volume type of situation that gets me there. What about you, Brandon? Did you give us a guess? I don't think I did. I would say over but and because I really think it's going to be like 211. It's going to be like maybe that much more.
I also wanted to ask you guys who you thought essentially what is going to be the bills leading receiver? Are we going to see a resurgence of a Murray Cooper? Is Keon Coleman going to shine? Is it going to be anybody shining or you know, just even distribution? I'm going to I want to take this one and this is another thing I need to manifest. Dalton can take over a hundred yards. Please for the love of God. He's been asking for this all season. Can I get one before I die?
Dalton Kincaid up the seam four or five times for chunk yardage plays. But I'm going to say Kincaid because I'm going to say Kincaid because I don't think we'll see we'll see we'll see a lot of favorable matchups for Kincaid up the seam in zone and a lot of various situations. He looked healthy in that Lions game. He ran with a lot of purpose and a lot of speed on his routes, which we haven't seen that Christmas from him really since the end of last year.
I'm going to say Kincaid just because for the love of God, I need to see it. I need to see it so I know this kid's not a bust. That's fair. I'm going to go with Khalil Shakir because that's that is the safe answer. Dude, that's a safe answer. He catches like it's like eighty nine percent of everything thrown his way at this point and it was a hundred percent through seven weeks.
Oh, so I think a lot of the times when teams get this close to the playoffs and even in playoffs, sometimes a player emerges, you know, and they just start shining with the energy from fans, but also kind of the excitement of the moment. We saw that with the bills a couple of years ago in Isaiah McKenzie, who just started blossoming, you know, in the playoffs. So who do you think it's going to be? You want to give us an answer?
I thought you were setting us up for this is Curtis Samuel's breakout game. Okay. I think probably I agree with JJ. I think Khalil Shakir. Safe bet. Safe bet. Come on, Kincaid. Come on. I need this. Give it to us. A hundred yard game here against the Pats. All right, guys. Well, prediction sure to go wrong. Wrapped podcast wrapped. Brandon, thank you for joining us. We'll invite you back for the postgame, too.
You give everybody your thoughts not only on the game, but your first live NFL game experience. Can't wait to introduce it to you, my friends. For all of you listening at home, like, share, and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. YouTube, Apple and Spotify. And as always, go Bills. Go Bills. Go Bills. Go Bills. Go Bills. Go Bills. Go Bills. Go Bills. Go Bills. Go Bills. Go Bills. Go Bills. Go Bills.