Here in a little bit, let's go out to the Kway comspiral hotline. Though. I'll bring our guy, Ryan Michael, who works for the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Writes good stuff there, write some stuff for the CFL. We've had him on the show before, we had a chance to talk to him, but some status. He's our unofficial statistician, unofficial official statistician here at BCT Ryan, Welcome to the show. Hey Ben Nick,
how you doing tonight? Doing pretty well? You DM me earlier and you know you were talking about having some data on Sean Payton's starts versus his finishes. Now, this year started kind of slow, finished kind of hot, except for you know there at the end if they've been truss and you know, I went down home from there, but I thought that the middle of the season, you know, the Broncos kind of started taking off. But historically has Sean Payton been a hot start guy, a hot finish guy,
or neither. He's been at a hot start, cold finish guy traditionally, You're right. Last year, you know, the middle of the season is really where our strength was. So it depends on where you're choosing the frame it. You know, we got off to a seven and six start before we finishing one in three. And it's really that one in three finish that I hone in on, and I say, this might be a cause for
concern because I'm not a believer in outliers. But when you see the same thing happen year after year after year, now happening with multiple football clubs, it's a cause for concern. So we could dial it back to twenty seventeen in New Orleans, they got off to an eight and two start, they finished four and four. In twenty eighteen, they got off to a thirteen and two start, they finished one in three. In twenty nineteen, ten
and two start, they finished three and two. Twenty twenty, they got off to a ten and two start, they finished three and three, they lose breeze. They actually get off to a fairly decent five and two start, and they finished four and six. So when you see it happen that many times, especially if we're talking to recent history right over the past decade, half decade, it's a cause for concern. Is that something that is attributable to a defense an offensive thing, is it makes results, does it
schedule? What can we attribute that to, I would say it's a mixture of a number of different things. Historically, New Orleans didn't really feel strong defenses. They got better during that stretch from twenty seventeen to twenty twenty, but they were never elite. And obviously our defense was a mess last year. So if you're not closing with a strong defense, it's not unusual to see teams fall apart towards the end. But it's also a matter of the
offenses fizzling out. If you saw how productive and efficient Drew Brees was in twenty eighteen, three quarters of the way through the season, he was on pace to have one of the greatest seasons in the history of the NFL, ended up finishing second team All Pro and still had an elite season, led the league in passer rating. But Sean Payton's offenses tend to fizzle late in the year. It happened in New Orleans and it's happening in Denver. Well.
The biggest thing is, obviously the Ben and I were just talking about this before you join us, Ryan, you know, what could the Broncos actually do? Could they move up? And the idea is that everyone feels as though a rookie quarterback kind of changes everything. It rises all tides, or however the saying goes, when we look at coach Sean Payton, hey, you seem as though over his career there hasn't been a development of a
young quarterback. Do you think that he would be capable of doing it now that he has so much knowledge about the game now a opposed to early on in his career. I think we have to be realistic. And I think a lot of fans look at the NFL Draft as if we're playing Madden. So it would be nice in the scenario, as Ben pointed out, to trade up at take McCarthy at nine and have McCarthy flesh out into an eventual Pro Bowl quarterback. That would be great. Is that realistic? Maybe?
Is it probable? Probably not? And historically speaking, Sean Payton's resume outside of Drew Brees is a pretty rough one. We shared it on Twitter a few days ago, and if you look at the two different chapters of his career, the chapter with Drew Brees and without Drew Brees. And I'm not the first person to make this point or to bring up this discussion, but if you look at the chart that I put out a few days ago.
You'll see that Sean Payton coached a total of eleven seasons as either a head coach or an assistant cort positional coach, and the average offensive scoring rank of those offenses was twenty point five. So he's finishing in the bottom third of the league where his peak. His ceiling was the two thousand Giants team that went to the Super Bowl. They finished fifteenth, and the floor was the
nineteen ninety eight Eagles, they finished thirtieth. That's not a great resume when your floor is pretty much the worst in professional football and your ceiling is an average offensive football club. So it's not that I don't believe that he can't put that together in Denver this year or perhaps next year, but he really has to do it because Drew Brees did it without him. Then I know a lot of the trolls on Twitter give you a lot of grief for pointing
out the obvious. Drew Brees was a Pro Bowl quarterback and Diego. He was a top five quarterback in San Diego and one year he went without Sean Payton in twenty twelve, with Aaron Cromer and Joevitt an interim head coach. He throws for fifty two hundred yard lead the league with forty three touchdown passes. I mean, that's a pretty good resume without the offensive genius. What does Sean Payton have without Drew Brees remains to be seen. I wouldn't close
the book on him just yet. But he has to believer well. And that's the thing. I mean. People arrantly think that I hate Sean Payton. I don't. I don't even dislike Sean Payton. I think Sean Payton is a good coach. I don't think he's a great one, but I think he's a good one. And I think that the difference there is how much of a difference you make. And I do think that Sean Payton did
have an impact on New Orleans. I do now. To say that he took them from a garbage franchise to number one is not exactly true, because under Jim Hasltt Randy Miller, THEYD had a pretty decent rebuild. They fell off that year right before Sean Payton got there because Deuce mccoister got hurt and they had a couple other things, and then they was an Aaron Brooks you
know, finally flamed out as quarterback. But you know, if you look at and you were talking about the suspension year, and yes, Drew Brees did all those things, but the bottom fell out of the defense, and then the defense kind of came back when Sean Payton came back. That says
something to his ability to be a head coach. So I don't want to take anything away from Sean Payton. But at the same time, we look at what Andy Reid has accomplished with non Hall of Fame quarterbacks, which you pointed out on your own Twitter, guys like Alex Smith and Donovan McNabb, who I think are all of good but not Hall of fame. And then you look at what guys what Sean Payton has accomplis without Drew Brees, And it's a no brainer here. I mean Andy Reid is by far ahead of
him, and that it hurts as a Bronco fan to watch that. I agree, I don't think they belong in the same sentence. Then I don't
mean that in a malicious way against Sean. But if you look at the resume Andy Reid is put together outside of Patrick Mahomes, that's really the story that needs to be told when he ends up inevitably in the Pro Football Hall of Fame because he's put together so many elite seasons in terms of from an offensive perspective, from a head coaching perspective, he succeeded with so many players. Alex Smith led the league in passer rating before Pat Mahomes took over in
twenty eighteen. And again I don't know. I would put Alex Smith in the Hall very good. I would definitely put McNabb there, But the resume again without the elite Hall of Fame first ballot. Patrick Mahomes quarterback for Andy Reid speaks for itself. And we've seen a number of other head coaches who have done well other places, whether as an offensive coordinator, as a positional
coach, and they're not tied specifically to one quarterback. We saw Bill Walsher, we saw Mike Hombren do it, Andy Reid obviously, Mike Shanahan, Bruce Arian, Sean McVay. I would very much like to see Sean Payton step into that same category along with those guys. He has an opportunity to
do it this year. Well, it's interesting that the comparison to Andy Reed I mean, based on the fact that both of those guys are now in the same division here in AFC was do you feel as though when we look at Sean Payton, he's signed a five year deal, he's going into year
four excuse me of that deal? Do you feel as though he is coaching for his legacy in his time here here with the Broncos based on all the information that you're presenting, Absolutely, absolutely, And Sean Payton has put together one of the best head coaching resumes in NFL history, of borderline Hall of
Fame resume. Given the success that he had in New Orleans despite the reality that he had Drew Brees in his back pocket, We're talking about a guy who put together I believe it was twelve top ten scoring seasons in fourteen years in New Orleans. So his resume there does speak for itself. But he has the opportunity to separate himself from some of the other coaches in NFL history who have had success predominantly with one starting quarterback. He has a chance to
have a fresh start here in Denver. Didn't work out last year with Russell Wilson, and I would put that a lot more at the feet of Sean Payton than I would rust. So it's one season. I don't think that anybody should be overreacting to one season that wasn't horrible. Eight and nine is not a horrible measure. But the standards are high here in Bronos Country. They should be well yeah, And I think you go back and you look
at what Sean Payton has accomplished in sixteen years in the regular season. You look at it one sixty ninety eight. That's a sixty two percent winning percentage. It's very, very good. And he's a winning record in the playoffs nine and eight, but only one super Bowl in that timeframe. And he is somebody who covets the legacy portion of the Hall of Fame. And I talked to some current general managers and former general managers over the course the last
couple of weeks, and they all said the same thing. It's like, there's no way Sean Payton gets a Hall of Fame uless he wins another Super Bowl because of the taints to the legacy with both bounty Gate and Pillgates. So you know, I think that I think he desperately wants to win, but it just it felt like that instead of trying to devise something that worked for Russell Wilson. He felt like he was going to Jettis and everything, get everything the way he knows how to do it, the way he wants
to do it, and try to win in that regard. Is that fair to say or am I overreaching? No? I don't think you're overreaching at all. I mean part of being a great coach is being able to tailor an offense or a defense to the strengths of your players. And the way that he misutilized I don't even if misutilizes really the right word. The offense was a Sean Payton offense, and it's not his fault that he inherited a
quarterback whose skill set was the opposite match for his system. So I think that we can give him a little bit of grace if he's able to start fresh here in twenty twenty four and moving forward. I don't know that he needs to win another championship to end up in the Pro Football Hall of Fame, but he does need to leave his mark by leading Denver to success and to showcase that through the strengths that he's cultivated over a very long career.
The offense needs to operate the way a Sean Payton offense should operate. And I don't care about the style. What we need is for them to produce points. But but Ryan, what does that success actually translate too? I mean, are we talking you know, winning eight games a season, winning ten games a season, making a playoff, you know, making a late run, and the playoffs where you may go in as a four seed and then you're right there at the precipice, but you lose by a field goal?
Is that the measure of success for Sean Payton and this Broncos team. I don't think it should be for him. I don't think it should be for any of us here in Broncos Country. I don't think anybody listening right now would be happy with that. And I think the scenario that you just
painted is a pretty realistic one. At the same time, there is an element of luck and there is an element of the defense coming to deliver in a sense that if we took the twenty twenty two Broncos defense and we put it together with a twenty twenty three Broncos offense, I think we make the
postseason. I don't think we win a championship. So if the defense gets sharper and part of that falls at the feet of the head coach, even though he's an offensive winded head coach, there's going to be an opportunity to make some movement. But we got to get to the postseason first, right. I think most fans, if you said right now, we're going to be a wild card team that's going to go one and done, but we're going to be better than last year, none of us are going to be
satisfied with that. So just to build on what it is that you're saying, because the standards are as high as they are here in Denver, that's not going to cut it. I'd like to see a conference championship appearance and you like this year, you know, Gus like, I mean, it's not happening this year. To formulate the question, I couldn't even find a way to formulate the question to that, But I'll just say it like this. I think if we made the playoffs based on what we're about to face
this year, I think everybody would be satisfied with that. I think making the playoffs every year all law Morety Schottenheimer and then going nowhere is not going to satisfy Broncos fans. Fair. That's fair, that's fair. I mean, we all want the same thing. And you know, to your point, Ben, as far as all the grief you get for hating on Sean Payton, I don't see it as hate either. All three of us are
rooting for him to succeed. All three of us would like to be in New Orleans next year covering the Super Bowl and having the broad ess of the super Bowl. That realistic, I don't think so. But we're all pulling for him to succeed. It's just a matter of seeing it development well. Yeah, And I think that's the thing like for me, I don't want to speak for Nick, but I think we're on the same mindset, is that we're just trying to contextualize things and sometimes that that requires looking at the
negatives in order to overcome them. We would, you know, we're not. There's a whole radio station here in town for hating on the team. We don't. We don't do that here. We're we're we're trying to be optimistic. And I realize that I've been pessimistic in a way, but it's it's also about, Hey, look I see these problems, and I don't see the solution there can somebody either shake me out of my argue with me and shake me out of that. You want me to shake you physical metaphor
you know you still want that, Martinelli. So that's why I'm keeping it right here with it arms reach, so I can just yank it back. But but I mean that that's what I want. I want someone to metaphorically shake me out of this, or or or hard evidence me out of this. And so far no one's been able to do that. They just complain that I'm a hater and move on. Yeah, well said, Well said, Well, it's kind. It's time for the Broncos to prove you wrong, to prove me wrong. Maybe both of us could be a I don't
know. I wouldn't say that Nick is necessarily optimistic. He's probably a little bit more optimistic than you and I are. I'd like to channel that a little bit. We'll see Nick's knick superhero name is Captain Optimism. I didn't mean to ruin your secret identity there, buddy, but but I'm gonna let the world know. Hey, Royan, we always appreciate the time with you. We'll have you back on here soon with the next set of data to
you know, to tell us how to turn this thing around right. Pleasure, Ben, appreciate your time.