Intra Year Drawdowns | LEI Leading Economic Indicator | VIX Index to Be Normal Soon? | Useless Fed Dot Plots
Episode description
Derek Moore is back to discuss markets, volatility, and the economy through the prism of intra year drawdowns, Spot VIX vs Vix Futures prices, and LEI or Leading Economic Indicator. Why are the Fed’s Dot Plots useless (still). Thoughts on the idea that Buffered strategies don’t beat the market. How different markets have performed since the first Fed rate cut in September and much more.
Since September Rate Cut Mag 7 vs SPX vs Equal Weight
Intra Year Drawdowns vs full year return
Comments on AQR post on Buffered funds
VIX Index vs VIX Futures in the coming months
AAII Bull Bear Spreads says way bearish still
Fed dot plots
Fed Funds Futures rate expectations
Multiple Contraction is the reason for the drawdown not a reduction in earnings estimates
LEI Leading Economic Indicator
Mentioned in this Episode
Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators#:~:text=Using%20the%20Composite%20Indexes:%20The%20Leading%20Economic,economy%20is%20heading%20in%20the%20near%20term.&text=The%20CEI's%20four%20component%20indicators%E2%80%94payroll%20employment%2C%20personal,used%20to%20determine%20recessions%20in%20the%20US.
CME Fed watch Tool https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
Federal Reserve Dot Plots Summary of Economic Projections March 2025 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20250319.pdf
Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT
Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com