How Long Recessions Last

Broken Pie Chart

Mar 31, 2020•33 min•Ep. 62

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Episode description

It’s official, we reached a bear market in stocks. But when and how long will a pending recession last? How do you know an official recession has been declared?

What is a recession?

Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth

NBER vs GDP 2 quarters decline

Calculate GDP C + I + G + (X – M)

Annualizing GDP quarterly growth rate

Cyclical, Structural, or Event Driven Bear Markets

Supply Shocks vs Demand Shocks

Recoveries: U Shaped vs. V Shaped vs. L Shaped

Mentioned in this Episode:

Percent change real GDP growth rates https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPGDPAI

Historical recessions from the NBER https://www.nber.org/cycles.html

HBR Harvard Business Review economic shocks of coronavirus https://hbr.org/2020/03/understanding-the-economic-shock-of-coronavirus