GDP Components Explained to Spot Recessions | Deep Dive into Explaining GDP

Derek Moore gives an in-depth explanation of each of the components that make up GDP. No, 2 consecutive negative quarters of GDP do not mean a recession! How to use GDP nowcasts to spot trends in GDP and spot recession risks. How the NBER declares recessions and what they look at.

How is GDP calculated?

What are components of GDP?

What are the most important components driving GDP?

Business investment vs consumer spending

Government spending is not the most important aspect

Explaining Change in Private Payrolls

Consumer Spending PCE

Residential Investment

Non-Residential Fixed Investment

Change in Private Inventories

Government spending

What is the NBER National Bureau of Economic Research

How NBER declares recessions

Why NBER declares recessions and recoveries after the fact

Historical list of recessions

Mentioned in this Episode:

Contact Derek Moore derek.moore@zegafinancial.com

ZEGA Financial www.zegafinancial.com

Derek Moore’s Book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547?ref_=nav_signin&

Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow?panel=3

BEA contributions to percent change in real gross domestic product https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey

Podcast most telegraphed recession ever? https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/most-telegraphed-recession-ever-the-4-rs-recession/id1432836154?i=1000563145394

Real GDP precent change historical https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1Q225SBEA

NBER historical recessions https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions

How NBER declares a recession based on 4 or 2 categories https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating