Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial, look at how markets have done during past Government Shutdowns. The S&P 500 Index during, and 3 and 6 months later. Then they get in dept on why selling in-the-money puts is the same as selling covered calls on stock. What are cash covered puts? How US Treasuries yielding 5% plus may tip the scales. The risks and payoffs of one versus the other. How cash settled European style options differ from American style options at expiration (a...
Oct 01, 2023•57 min•Ep. 240
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial, discussed the fallout in the markets during Jerome Powell’s press conference post Fed decision. Then, they talk about high yield spreads and current interest rates across relative fixed income like investment grade, high yield, and treasuries. Finally, they explore how options are priced and which options are considered expensive or cheap vs one another. It might surprise you to take a step back looking at the per day costs. How options ar...
Sep 25, 2023•49 min•Ep. 239
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial, talk through the recent CBOE analysis on impact of 0DTE options. Contrary to popular belief, 0DTE options may not be causing imbalances according to the data. Plus, explaining how cash settled (European) style options differ from American style where you can be assigned (or auto exercised). How short puts can mirror covered calls. Not surprisingly, Jay and Derek get detailed into some of the similarities. Plus, is inflation coming back aft...
Sep 17, 2023•57 min•Ep. 238
Derek Moore is back with ZEGA CEO Jay Pestrichelli where they discuss whether higher real yields are an issue for markets and how this period seems similar to the 1990’s. Then they dive into implied volatility using companies like Tesla TSLA and Nvidia NVDA as examples to explore how options markets express views on expected moves based on options prices. What are the drivers of volatility moving higher or lower. How earnings affect implied volatility and what typically happens after the announc...
Sep 10, 2023•1 hr 1 min•Ep. 237
Derek Moore is joined once again by Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial where deep dive into the latest employment numbers. Plus, they ponder whether once everyone flips a recession finally comes? Later, they noticed some technical analysis on crude oil prices and a stealth rally. Then Jay and Derek talk through the idea of synthetic option positions including synthetic long stock and its attributes. Q2 earnings wrap up and how analysts over promised worse earnings and what’s ahead. Unemploy...
Sep 04, 2023•48 min•Ep. 236
Derek Moore is joined by Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial, to discuss the Bank of America piece saying maybe Goldman Sachs got 0 DTE option effects wrong. Plus, what did Jay Powell’s speech mean if anything? New Fed Funds futures probabilities point to the Fed raising yet again. Then, they go through some odds and ends like how participation in employment surveys is dropping, the high Atlanta Fed GDP now numbers, and more. The Fed on track for more interest rate hikes? Jay Powell will do ...
Aug 27, 2023•47 min•Ep. 235
Derek Moore discusses how everyone seemed to get the direction of rates across the yield curve wrong. How adding duration in hindsight was the wrong choice. Comparing market prognostications in 1995 to today. What the Fed Funds rate probabilities really measure. Plus, explaining why bonds make or lose money based it their duration (sensitivity to interest rates). The bond market got rates wrong. What is happening at the long end of the yield curve? Why doesn’t the Fed have to lower rates without...
Aug 23, 2023•31 min•Ep. 234
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli return this week to discuss what current forward PE rations and whether that informs future market returns. Reasons PE ratios may go up or down including earnings increasing or markets going lower. Have there been a jump in forward earnings expectations? Then they check in on the high yield spread against treasuries and relationship to the VIX Index. Later they discuss the moving average of the unemployment rate and whether that is leading or lagging as an indica...
Aug 13, 2023•42 min•Ep. 233
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli are back at it discussing how higher interest rates have impacted the price of call and put options. They use some examples of what happens to options prices due to rates and dividends. Then they discuss the recent rise in long term treasury rates, the downgrade of US Treasury debt, and what if any effect the US Treasury issuing massive amounts of new treasury bonds into the market may have. Exploring the 36-month drawdown in the US Aggregate Bond Index compared ...
Aug 06, 2023•50 min•Ep. 232
Derek Moore responds to a Bloomberg chart highlighting how cheap protective puts are right now according to Bank of America research. At least since 2008, and why it might be good to be hedged when it’s cheap rather than waiting for a market crash to happen first. Then he explains some requirements for a stock to get included in the S&P 500 Index, when it regularly rebalances, and how relaxing the rules on multi share class stocks might pave the way for stocks like AirBnB to potentially be a...
Aug 01, 2023•30 min•Ep. 231
Jay Pestrichelli checks in with Derek Moore to discuss people that always predict horrible market crashes are coming and why it’s so unhelpful for investors. Then they talk through what the market fears (besides the normal stuff) at this point including profit margins and looming strikes. Why is economic data so confusing and if its broken. Finally, they go through the S&P 500 having the 11th best 1st half and compare this market cycle to the 2000 bear market. Fear and market crash predictio...
Jul 23, 2023•57 min•Ep. 230
Derek Moore is joined once again by ZEGA Financial CEO Jay Pestrichelli to debate whether inflation still matters to the market. Plus, even though stocks like META are up huge off the bottom, they still are down from their prior highs. Why this shows the power of losing less through proper hedging and how it can potentially increase returns during volatile times. Speaking of volatility, they discuss the state of Vol in the markets including the VIX and why volatility isn’t lower considering the ...
Jul 15, 2023•1 hr 4 min•Ep. 229
Derek Moore points out that no, the Fed doesn’t need to lower rates without some problem or a recession. Looking at the nineties when markets went up despite Fed Funds rate above 5%. Then looking at the net short positions of traders via the commitment of traders report. It shows recently at markets moved higher, short sellers covered causing a short squeeze? Finally, before a recommendation, some talk about the upcoming earnings season and a reminder in 2022 earnings did not go below those of 2...
Jul 10, 2023•26 min•Ep. 228
Derek Moore and ZEGA Financial CEO Jay Pestrichelli comment on Bloomberg’s article showing the Nasdaq 100 Index just had its best 1st half since the early nineties. Is the market overbought or rightly valued and trending? Do investors who missed the rally say it’s overbought because they need it to go back down? Looking at how markets do when they are up big in the first half of the year. Plus, Jay and Derek go back over some predictions from December to see how right or wrong they were. Finally...
Jul 03, 2023•49 min•Ep. 227
Derek Moore and ZEGA Financial CEO Jay Pestrichelli talk about CNN’s Fear and Greed Index and whether it’s a good indicator for markets. Then they explore differences in Put Call Ratios and how they may not measure what people think. Plus, they look at the volatility surface across different option maturities noting how low near-term options implied volatilities have gotten indicating there is no fear. Once again, they comment on how the VIX is NOT broken! Later they discuss investment banks rai...
Jun 26, 2023•42 min•Ep. 226
Jay Pestrichelli is back with Derek Moore to discuss Jay Powell’s tough talking but no action Fed. Plus, is this a repeat of the 1994-1995 forward PE expansion bull market? Also, they go back to the 200-2002 bear market where the Nasdaq 100 had 7 different 20% bear market rallies and the S&P 500 had its own share. Is this different? Finally, Jay and Derek look at instances where the S&P 500 made new highs with only 5% of the companies also making 52-week highs and the subsequent future h...
Jun 18, 2023•51 min•Ep. 225
Derek Moore and Mike Puck from ZEGA Financial discuss how unlike what all the “experts” thought, international stocks have done quite well, and Europe’s economy held up. They look back at how long US large cap has outperformed international developed country markets. Then they look at some sector flows and note the parabolic nature of the chart into the tech sector. Plus, they talk about US Equity Factors through very early June comparing growth, value, high beta, and low volatility performance....
Jun 11, 2023•35 min•Ep. 224
Derek Moore and ZEGA Financial CEO Jay Pestrichelli explore data showing its cheaper to rent vs. buying a home in all but 3 markets. Then they bring up the WSJ article saying companies are “juicing” earnings evidenced by the Beneish-M score and historically whether a high M-score predated market tops. Later they look at how the top 10 market cap weighted companies have changed over the decades and why this supports buying indexes (but being hedged!). Finally, the VIX did something it hasn’t done...
Jun 04, 2023•52 min•Ep. 223
Derek Moore and ZEGA Financial CEO Jay Pestrichelli have a lively discussion on whether AI is supplanting Crypto and Blockchain as the new thing. Then they point out fund flows going to long duration treasury (and 3x triple leveraged Treasury ETF) and why? Later we discussed the new increase in probabilities for more Fed interest rate hikes. Finally, Nvidia broke out after beating earnings and revenue expectations and a massive rise in expectations. Of course, they make some recommendations. AI ...
May 28, 2023•47 min•Ep. 222
Derek Moore and ZEGA Financial CEO Jay Pestrichelli do it again. That’s right they talk about AI but this time around how it may be driving Mega Cap Tech performance relative to the rest of the market. Plus, the weight of the top 2 S&P 500 companies is the highest since 1978 and the top 10 companies weighting is now 30%. They debate whether this is nothing or something. Finally, they discuss the LEI Leading Economic Indicator declining for 13 straight months without a “declared” recession ye...
May 21, 2023•43 min•Ep. 221
Derek Moore and ZEGA Financial CEO Jay Pestrichelli discuss whether the option markets via Volatility Indexes are underrating potential market turmoil. Plus, they debate whether fears of the US defaulting on Treasury Bonds is Overrated? Using ChatGPT AI to research the 1979 US Treasury default. Then they talk through what they are seeing in the options market including variances between implied volatility between different places on the volatility surface. Finally, before some recommendations, t...
May 14, 2023•57 min•Ep. 220
Jay Pestrichelli is back on with Derek Moore where they do a deep dive into dividends. There are a lot of misconceptions around things like total return vs price return, ex-dates, payable dates, record date and more. Plus, they look at an example ETF before noting that there seems to be a movement of young investors focusing on dividend paying stocks to generate income. Finally, Jay and Derek talk about the Fed interest rate decision and even task ChatGPT AI to pull some research on what happens...
May 07, 2023•1 hr 4 min•Ep. 219
Derek Moore poses some investment questions to ChatGPT, is it helpful? Instances where ChatGPT is wrong. Then, looking at the bulk of Q1 2023 earnings releases and what we’ve learned. Were analysts too bearish? Finally, Derek delves into the below the surface aspects of 1 month T-Bills yields so much less than 2- and 3-month T-Bills. Even less than the Fed Funds rate. Derek’s theory is with the increase in cash flowing to money markets, and levels of Overnight Reverse Repos not increasing, the O...
Apr 30, 2023•32 min•Ep. 218
Derek Moore and ZEGA CEO Jay Pestrichelli are back again to discuss the CBOE launching a new 1 Day VIX Index and what it means in relation to the viability of the traditional VIX Index. Plus, they note that 1 month treasury bill yields are far below the 3 month which is odd when looking historically at the relationship. Hint, it has something to do with money market funds and the Fed Overnight Reverse Repos. Then they discuss the decline in the money supply but when put into context, is it reall...
Apr 22, 2023•45 min•Ep. 217
Derek Moore and ZEGA CEO Jay Pestrichelli are back again to discuss Cam Harvey’s 10/3 Yield Curve Inversion and its track record. What it has meant and can mean going forward. Looking at the Real Retail Sales importance for predicting recessions. What various Fed members and Jamie Dimon say about where interest rates are going. Plus, what is going on with wages and how real wage growth may or may not give the Fed cover to raise more. Then, they discuss banks going to the discount window and the ...
Apr 16, 2023•57 min•Ep. 216
Derek Moore and ZEGA’s Mike Puck are paired once again to talk about markets and the economy. They discussed how Q1 asset class winners and losers weren’t what many thought coming into the quarter. They also talk about correlations, or how different asset classes and sectors have been more correlated over the last 12 months and what that means for portfolios. The lack of high yield debt coming due and how that keeps company’s interest costs down given they refinanced already. Finally, they check...
Apr 09, 2023•44 min•Ep. 215
Derek Moore and ZEGA CEO Jay Pestrichelli are back together to debate the dollar, markets, earnings, and more. Plus, they discuss one aspect of S&P 500 Index estimates that no one ever talks about. Then, MSFT, META, AAPL, GOOGL, and AMZN have driven all the YTD gains in the S&P 500 Index compared to the rest of the market. Finally, they discuss whether the market is still keying off the US Dollar level, S&P 500 profit margins, and more. US Dollar still wagging the tail of the stock m...
Apr 06, 2023•47 min•Ep. 214
ZEGA CEO Jay Pestrichelli rejoins Derek Moore to talk Jay Powell and the Fed seemingly tightening and loosening all at once. They raised rates, but then increased the size of their balance sheet through the SVB (and other) bank bailouts. Then, observing the deep discounts, some REIT etfs are currently trading to NAV and what that infers. Also, Hindenburg research (a short seller) put out negative research on Block (Square). The role of short-selling firms and noting the high stock-based compensa...
Mar 26, 2023•45 min
Derek Moore is back with Mick Puck to discuss the Warren Buffett quote excoriating opponents to share buybacks. Why buybacks and dividends are more closely related than you think. Using Walmart to explain how the change in shares outstanding affect EPS. Where to see share repurchases and dividends on a company’s cash flow statement. Plus, our quick overview of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) debacle and what the FDIC’s list of troubled banks at the end of 2022 told as (if anything) about the 3 ban...
Mar 18, 2023•53 min•Ep. 212
Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial, joins Derek Moore again to discuss markets going higher even when earnings decline post bear markets. Plus, they discuss Michael Kantro’s HOPE graph showing the order of slowing in the economy through the lens of Housing, New Orders, Profits, and Employment. Then they move on to the drivers of returns talking through PE multiples, margins, revenues, buybacks, and dividends. Speaking of dividends, are they going to be the next big thing if investors believ...
Mar 12, 2023•41 min•Ep. 211
