1994-95 All Over Again in Markets?

What’s the saying, history doesn’t repeat itself but often rhymes? In 1994 the Fed was raising rates all the way through the Feb 1995 meeting. How does that period compare to now? And does that mean we are in for a repeat of markets? Derek Moore explores that period and makes some comparisons.

1994 Fed interest rate hikes

1994-95 interest rate cycle and market returns

The 1995 Fed pivot

When did markets turn higher? Hint it’s before the last rate hike.

Curious reasons Fed began raising rates in 1994.

Are the Fed projections ever right (hint, usually not their SEP or statement of econ projections

Mentioned in this Episode:

History of Fed rate hikes https://www.thebalancemoney.com/fed-funds-rate-history-highs-lows-3306135#:~:text=The%20highest%20fed%20funds%20rate,in%20response%20to%20rising%20inflation.

The 94-95 rate cycle including some look back at newspaper headlines and stories https://www.businessinsider.com/1994-federal-reserve-tightening-story-2013-1#protests-grow-louder-in-the-press-following-the-fomcs-may-18-decision-below-are-headlines-from-two-syndicated-ap-columns-the-next-day-18

Effective Fed Funds rate today https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/effr

Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr

Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com