Always made extra special.
Not only do we hear from Christopher Smithaman get an airful from Christopher. I think it's on fire. This morning, we get to hear from Brian James, all with financials. Brian James a financial planner. He is providing us with the Monday Monday segment. Brian, Welcome back to the Morning Show. Always a pleasure talking with you.
Good morning much Thomas, and welcome back to you as well to your own show.
Indeed, and yeah, I got a chuckle out of the topic list stock future is based on the news and you know, my immediate reaction to that, just basic summary of what we're going to talk about was stock futures maybe based on memes that float around and really not connected with things like pe ratios or reality, but just because people get all ginned up over topics designed to distract. But I'm not quite sure that's the direction you were
planning on going. Well, I think that's there's some truth to that.
I mean, we react to whatever is in front of us, and there's a lot more in front of us. It seems like there's a lot more every single day. You know, if you go back to twenty thirty years, the only thing you had was lou Dobbs and his market report and those.
Kinds of things.
Yeah, to do at the end of the day. Now it's in your face all day, every day. And that has led us to a situation where even if there isn't a headline, gosh darn it, we're gonna find one. And we look to memes and we look to all this other kind of social media stuff for whatever is everybody talking about. There may not actually be a headline, but somebody's talking about something, and by god, I'm going to react to it.
Yeah, no question about it. Also, you know, I have a dear friend, Jay Rattliffe. I heard media aviation expert Jay Ratloff, who also is a bit of a day trader, and he's a quick in and out guy. I mean the way he trades and the way he teaches how to trade, And that's part of his business is to
teach people. His methodology usually really successful. So in like, you know, thirty minutes in the morning, he will jump in following some kind of trend to identify it, and then as soon as he gets some kind of profit, he gets right out. So in a half hour, who may make five thousand dollars because he doesn't hang on
to any given stock. And I know that's not the methodology that you prefer, which is mixed index funds and things like that, but I think it's because of the mean reality of the world that those stocks will fluctuate so rapidly during a day someoney gets the word out, the stock will jump, and you got to just know when to dump it and not hang onto it for too long or you're gonna lose your money in a single day.
Yeah, And I think and on the idea of day trading, and uh, you know, I know, I know Jay, and he's he's got his strategy, and I think that the keyword there is prefer which doesn't mean rule out anything. So you know, I think even Jay himself will tell you that you need to keep your core money in a good, you know, good diversified type of a portfolio that frees you up to do the kind of things that he trains on. And that's okay, there's nothing wrong
with that. You want to take a flyer on something, then then then knock yourself out. But day trading is a job. It's not something where I'm gonna go at a stoplight. I'm going to buy a stock real quick and then I'll sell it at lunchtime. No, you're just sitting there watching numbers on a screen.
Yeah.
My wife was like, you need to take Jay's class. You need to take Day's class. And I'm thinking to myself, it is a job, you know. You you you've got to commit yourself to following the stock market or following individual stocks. And honestly, man, that does not sound like it's fun. You know, it doesn't grab my attention, even though you can make money at it, you know, applying meeting myself to that kind of activity just just like it's just it's not appealing, huh.
You know.
Yeah, And a lot of people out there too, you know, we hear the stories about crypto and people like make a lot of money in crypto, and it's the same kind of approach.
You're not buying and sitting on something.
This isn't you know, a stock where you're you're picking up something because they just invented the new widget we all have to have and you can just sit and watch it rise. You have to learn how to bounce in and out of it. Then you have to be willing and more importantly, Brian Thomas, you have to be willing to take the hits. Everybody who has made money in anything has lost a lot of money in the exact same thing. And you're hearing about the good run
that they just had. They don't bother bringing up they took like gambling. I won four hundred dollars in the casino.
That was like one day, and then you know the prior six days, you lost four hundred every single day.
Anybody who tells you they made a bunch of money and something that's great, ask them for the full year. You know, up ups and downs of whatever they're doing. And if they're doing something so great, that's awesome. Maybe they're in the next Warren Buffett, But well take a breath before you believe them.
One of the things that does impact the market as well as market futures, jobs data and I guess US data showed non farm payrolls increased by one hundred and thirty nine thousand jobs last month. It was downwardly. It was revised one hundred and forty seven thousand in April. So what does that mean? Unemployment rates is static at four point two, which is not bad. I mean that's I guess considered full employment anyway, We've talked about that before.
Yeah, we're just about darreed. And remember most people will go well fulls one hundred percent. So why are we calling, you know, ninety six percent employment full? Well, we have to have some some oil in the engine. If everybody is employed, then that means we can't expand anymore. So we need that buffer of people who need jobs so that businesses can expand and do the things they need to do.
So, yeah, some good news last week.
Expectations were kind of low heading into the monthly report that this one came from ADP. I remember, so ADP is a private company, of course, just like any other well public trade, but it's in the private sector and they're simply reporting on Here's what our little app shows in terms of all the people who were added to the system. Because ADP is ultimately a payroll company, they know exactly how many people were on the system a month ago and are on now, and then we extrapolate
that out to mean something in the overall economy. But the main job support showed that employers added about one hundred and thirty nine thousand jobs. The expectation was one hundred and twenty six thousand. So a lot of times, as we know, when we talk about the economy and the market, what we're trying to do, we're reacting to whether the analysts were right or not. And in this case, the analysts were slightly wrong, but in a good way. We got more than we expected.
No fair enough?
Well, and I know, so what are some of the other things. I know we got China to talk about as well, But officials are meeting with the China to discuss trade, and this seems like I being an on again, off again proposition, you know, things that seemed to be going in the right direction, and then as soon as they sit down to have talks, it tends to go nowhere. At least that's what it seems to me to be. Like, I haven't been following yet as closely as perhaps I should.
But then again, as we talked about a moment ago, there's like eight million different things you can talk about, and I tend to be following something else other than our on and off, on again, off again relationship with China.
Right, Yeah, So, so last week there were some discussions between Trump and President she of China for a nice phone call that that Trump described as very good, which is of course always super descriptive, and we get a lot of information out of a couple of adjectivicy forros
out after a call. But they talked about rare earth minerals and you know, continuing to talk and renewing negotiations and all that, and so markets generally took that conversation as a positive step, although as you as you just mentioned,
there's not a whole lot of meat to it. I think the markets are responding to the fact that, okay, so underneath right now, the economy seems to be doing okay, as we just talked about, the jobs report seems to be coming along just you know, decently, and we are willing to have conversations with China and they are willing to have conversations with us.
That's it.
There's no you know, otherwise it's a big nothing burger because there isn't a whole lot you can you can sink your teeth into it as to here's how the United States and China are going to move forward together within this global trade economy. It's just the fact that we are still talking to each other, and underneath, the economy is doing Okay, So as far as taking the tempers of the water right now, we are not in panic vote.
Well, and I you know, speaking of panic vote and I know panic you know, makes the headlines. The suggestion that China would dump all US treasuries and and quit dealing with completely. That's not possible for them, is it now?
So you have to remember whether we'd like each other or not doesn't really factor into the overall global success of each individual country's economy. If China, China is the largest holder of treasury bonds other than the US Treasury itself. Uh, And if they dumped all of those treasuries, if they simply walked away, then the value of those would drop completely and that would hurt China as well.
So that's why they haven't done yet.
If they could pull the trigger and there was no downside to them, they'd done it already to put themselves in a better position, as would we. Every country is out for its own interests. So but but everything is so interconnected now you can't really make a move without having some kind of blowback come back your way. And there's there's the idea of if they were to pull all of their currency out of and repatriate their currency by pulling it out of US treasuries and US debt.
Where's it going to go.
They're either gonna they're gonna have to park it in their own coffers, or they're gonna have to go to the the next best country out there and buy their debt. And there's just not a heck of a lot of size and things you can rely on once you get past the United States and China. So I don't think there's that's very likely at all, But it sharres a sexy headline to talk about.
Yeah it is, and you know, it kind of keeps people on their heels thinking, oh my god, the world's gonna end. But practically speaking, that's why I brought it up. You know, it is an argument they could make, but you know, the devils and the details and the points you make show exactly why media isn't as strong as some are suggesting it is. As we sit down at the negotiating table with China to talk about trade policies, think about Kearse Detalks Station Monday Monday at Brian Jamee.
All Right, we talked a little bit about China.
I understand that these trade talks are going to continue today, so that that obviously is going to impact the markets, but we don't know what's going to happen, so we're just going to have to take a wait and see approach on that one.
Why has apple Stock been struggling?
Brian Well, I think Apple has hit a point where it's already well known and everybody knows what an iPhone is. The iPhone hasn't changed drastically. We haven't had a new device like the you know, the iPad kind of changed things when it came out. There was, if anybody remembers, there was the vision pro device that was supposed to
be the next great thing. But those are now apparently hitting Facebook marketplace as people are just willing to take losses on the on this multi thousand dollars device that they bought, so almost kind of in a position where they've gone just a little bit stale.
I think fair enough on that one.
Okay, now explain this to me because I understand that opek is increasing production of oil h our our extraction policies of changing the Trump administration that you know, drill baby, drill, I guess is the mantra from the Trump administration why are oil futures up? What's what's the story on this one, Brian.
We're finally getting response, I believe, to the to the fact that we're hitting the summer travel season in the United States and then we spend a lot of you know, we spend a lot of money traveling around. We hadn't had that yet. Usually you and you and I would be talking about it if it would have been a headline. We made it all the way through May without talking about oil very much. I think our prior years, that was most of our Monday mornings was talking about that.
But price we had to pump have been down.
I mean, they were left less than three bucks last week when I checked on gas, but at least up in my neighborhood. Although it's a little north to three bucks now, but still that's that's way off from what it was not that long ago.
You know, I think I think in the past it's been it's been more driven by hype because, you know, not so much the actual inputs, but more the idea that hey, we're gon we're gonna start talking about oil prices going up. And politicians do this. They have certain agendas they want to push, so they'll push the idea that hey, it's April, oil prices are going up, you
gotta be paying attention to these things. Well, I think we've been distracted by so many things this past year that there's been so much other stuff to talk about that that hype never occurred. But now we're running actually on what is really happening, and now we're officially in vacation season and all that people are driving and doing more. The economy actually is despite the headlines of the economy
is doing okay. Yeah, so there is still demand out there, and we always have that switch to the summer mix and all that kind of stuff when they change the chemicals around inside the gas pump, and that is finally pushing things forward.
But I think for once it's just based on.
The reality of what is actually happening at the pump, then the hype preceding it.
All.
Right, Well, if you own a Tesla, you don't need gasoline. But Tesla's stock is another issue. You know, I was laughing about it earlier, Brian. So we have Elon Musk is head of DOGE, alienates the left.
They hate him.
He's cutting things evil Elon Musk. So let's vandalize Tesla's and let's dump the stock. So his stock obviously very volatile, and it dropped. So now we got the Trump Musk split up and divorce, saw us making the headlines everywhere. Oh my god, you're look at their name calling and Trump or Musk isn't on board for the big beautiful bill and that's got Donald Trump angry, which obviously has the suggested impact of angering the Trump side of the
political ledgers. So are they dumping Tesla stock as well? Because I see Tesla's not done real well, although it is it did jump a little bit the other day.
Well, Tesla of course dipped its toe into the political waters. You know obviously when when Elon Musk took his role, and really before that, when when he took his role in the campaign. Yeah, so a hard fourteen percent drop last week when the original announcement or the threat was made that we could remove the electric vehicle subsidies from you know, from the ability for somebody to buy it and make a little bit more reasonably priced. So a
little bounce back there after that fourteen percent drop. It came back almost four percent. But when that drop happened, it took away about one hundred and fifty billion dollars in market value.
Nothing has changed about a Tesla vehicle.
It's the same product it was before this whole debate, and it kind of fills the same role. However, this is what happens when when companies dip their toes into the political where We've seen this before. Henry Ford took his company through a major hit when he published in his own newspaper some anti semitic articles. Board was not publicly traded at the time that he did that. But same car company, you know, same idea, took a major hit because the owner took a political stance against some
of his customers. And I think that's what's happening here. We're just seeing the fallout from it.
Well, and let's face it, you know, Tesla's as a product propped up in part because the government was willing to give you some money back if you bought one that or some other electric vehicles. And I think this whole green agenda seems to be taking a nosedive globally. I mean, people are realizing that, you know, solar panels can't meet the challenges of day to day life blackouts.
These projects have gone over budget, and they're all funded and fueled by tax pair dollars, and it just seems to mean it has been a shift away from it, so that obviously is gonna have a long term impact on electric vehicles anyway. Hybrids seem to be the way of the future. Yeah, and I think they're the way of the future and the way of the present.
I think I think a hybrid is the best deal you've got going combining old technology with new until we get to a point where the new technology can really make everything else obsolete.
You know. But it's interesting there.
Elon Musk has always been obviously at the cutting edge of how can we make things more efficient and that kind of thing.
That's why he's got such a huge fan base.
But even he had a solar company called Solar City, and that we don't talk about that nearly as much as we talk about Tesla and SpaceX and all those kinds of things. And so it's very interesting that he took a position when he went on the police side, he took a position that worked directly against a lot of the major companies and the things that he's involved in. Don't forget SpaceX's right now, it's our only way to
get to space. But it also relies on obviously an awful lot of federal government grants, and there's some risk there as well.
He's got it at some point.
If he wants these companies to stay somehow connected and to stay viable, he's going to have to somehow be friends with whoever is sitting on the throne in Washington, DC. And right now the relationship's not going too fabulously, although it seems that they possibly are on speaking terms again.
But yeah, I guess we'll have to wait to see more headlines.
I think that's the direction it's going to go, because that's a true statement. You got to be friends with the administration, regardless of what the administration is apparently to get anywhere in this world. Everybody's figured that one out. Let's pause, bring Brian Jabs back to talk about some common social media myths about saving debt and by now pay later.
Eight twenty six, fifty five Kosity Talk station.
Here's your ten and nine first one and one morecast showers very likely long with some thunderstorm seventy five for the high Things clear up overnight, going down to sixty degrees, sunny skies with low humidity. Tomorrow high seventy eight, few clouds over night fifty eight and a sunny Wednesday and a dry Wednesdays. They'll be dry the rest of the week as well. Eighty two for the high end. Right now it's sixty eight.
In time for traffic from the UC Health the Traffic Center, from the Sauch Therapy to stress relief and cancer surveillance. The UC Cancer Center offers the region's largest supportive services program for cancer patients and survivors. Call five one three five eighty five U see see see on eastbound seventy four before Spring Grove Avenue accident blocking off the left lane. Traffic backed up to Montana Avenue with a six minute delay. Right now, I'm at Ezamac on fifty five k r CD talk station.
It is eight twenty nine. If you FI KCD talk station, Very happy Monday to you. We're gonna raise some awareness on Giving Voice Foundation. Krista Power, the executive director for the charity, is also going to talk about a bourbon raffle for their fundraiser. In the meantime, Brian James myths out there in the world. I know, folks. One of the things that you other financial planners always recommend you have a nice nest egg easily available for you in
case like you get fired or things happen. It's always worth having some money piled up. But some people are operating under the perception that, well, it's just not worth saving unless you can put away a whole lot of money. Accurate or not.
Yeah, that's accurate in terms of it being a myth.
However, you know that this is a place where is this can get you in trouble. So if I'm not saving because I have concluded that, well, if I can only put ten twenty bucks away, you know, a week while I'm just getting started, or you know, maybe in a rough period or whatever, then that's going to kind
of ingrain itself in my mind and I'll never save. So, you know, two, three, four years down the line, maybe I'm in a position now where i can save one hundred dollars a week, but I've already convinced myself, well it wasn't enough.
Then it's not enough. They're therefore it's never enough.
So these are just small habits in early on in your careers, when you're just getting started, it's more important. The habit is more important than the than the active of saving just a few dollars. If you can get into the habit of making sure that there's always a surplus on a monthly basis, and then that surplus gets saved into something, whether it's an emergency on bank account or your four oh one K, that is a strong habit.
It's going to benefit you down the road. So don't fall for that myth.
Fair enough, Now, what about the idea that, well, if you have a big, fat paycheck, then you are financially successful. And I know that's a myth.
This is a screaming myth because a lot of people take that high income and they make they make financial messes out of themselves. Do they use the phraseology all the time? I might have a client with five hundred thousand dollars in their retirement plan and they're going to be just fine. My other clients with five million dollars in their retirement plans live like they have twenty million dollars in their retirement plan. So what matters is your is your cash flow, not your pile of money.
It's the spending that counts, not how big the pile is.
Well, and that pile money that you have invested, you'll have more to invest if you exercise financial discipline. I mean, this is one of the thing reasons why I always say I outkicked my coverage when I married. My wife's very frugal, and that aligns with my mentality. I have always been absolutely scared of scared, like hell of debt, you know, I mean even having a mortgage. I mean,
we're capable of making the monthly mortgage payment. But we went a little more frugal than we certainly could have afforded when it came to our house because I never wanted to be house poor. I mean, her her mindset was completely in line with mine. So you know, if you really don't need it, you just don't buy it. That's financial discipline.
Yeah, and that leads you.
That leads you to a position where down the road you'll be able to live your life without concern for where the next meal is coming from, the bills paid, and so forth, and move the ball forward, not always scrambling to for that next nickel.
Yeah, there's a lot to do in enjoying the world without having to spend a lot of money. I think I just learned that lesson over my entire life. I guess because I grew up on the west side. Something about the water over there. And finally, the whole idea of buy now, pay later. What's what's this?
Yeah, so this is a when you're buying something online anymore, most people ignore it. But if you're buying something online, there's always in your shopping cart when you're checking out, there's always a little link nowadays that says, hey, you could do this in for you. You could spend this twenty six dollars and forty two cents in four easy payments and your life will be great. There's a bunch of companies that do this. Klarna kla Rna is one of the big ones. This is a Swedish company that
they're basically making money. This is the modern day layaway. So what they're doing is they're taking these relatively small debts. The average Colarna balance is about eighty seven dollars, as opposed to the average credit card balance more traditional financing
about sixty five hundred. So they're taking these extremely small amounts and you'll pay about ninety nine percent of users paying four different payments, and you're basically applying for credit able to get it without without a good credit score. It's not the same kind of underwriting you'll go through
in a credit card transaction. Klarna it makes money by hoping that some of these people out there aren't gonna make payments right at all, and they're gonna get They're gonna hit him with late fees and all that kind of stuff. The late fee on a you know, it can be a seven dollars late fee on an eighty seven dollars payment. If you think about that, that's about nine percent, and that's if you annualize that out over a long over a full year. That's a huge amount
of money. But remember a lot of people translate by now pay later to buy now pay maybe, or never had the intent to pay in the first place. So Klarna consequently has laid off several thousand employees.
And for whatever reason, student loans just popped into my mind.
Brian, Yeah, a little bit again.
Definitely buy now pay maybe, I'm or wait until the government decides that we're not gonna bother collecting those dollars anymore, which is never gonna happen.
Hey man, it's always a pleasure talking with you, Brian James. Thanks to Worth Financial as always for loaning you out for a few segments, so I've good appreciate the information. I'm sure my listeners do as well. We will have another go at this next Monday, and the meantime, have a full week.
My friend. Yes, sir, stay dry, talk to you Monday. Thanks brother. Coming to a day thirty five.
If you five KRCD talk station, we're gonna be hearing it from executive Krystal Power, executive director of Giving Voice Foundation, Burbo Raffle. There's a bourbon raffle and there's some really awesome bourbons available in this raffle for charity. So get your credit card out, be ready to get some tickets.
Don't cool. I'll be right back.