I think Trump does. I think she knows leave doing every day.
What do we have to do?
You know?
Fifty five krc D talk station, dashai Ato six here, fifty five KRCG talk station. I'm very happy Monday to all by Thomas. Always enjoyed this time of Monday because you get talked to money Monday. Brian James from Allworth Financial going over the issues that impact our our savings and our monetary situation and of course our retirement plans. Welcome back, Brian James. Great to have you on today.
Thank you very much as always in Happy belated Mother's Day to all those mothers out there.
Amen to that. I've been doing that all morning. Got to love your mom. And the landscape of the stories we're talking about today, I at least a couple of them may start to change. I'm sure you know that US and China agreed to the tariff cuts over the weekend. Was announced this morning. We're gonna keep recivical tarats a ten percent. We got that additional twenty percent because China's
role in the fentnel trade. But the one and twenty five percent retaliatory trade lovies on US goods and Chinese goods apparently has been put to rest, and we've got at least a ninety day pause in those tariffs, which got the markets really soaring this morning. Futures are up across the board.
It's going to be a good day according to futures. And that's what happens when we get the good news. So that this is the one thing Brian that kind of keeps should hopefully keep everybody a little bit more calm about what happens is this is self inflicted. The United States is choosing to represent itself differently to the rest of the world in terms of being a trade partner. But underneath this, as we're sitting here right now, is still a pretty strong economy that is ready to roll
once the fog clears. And this has happened. This seems to happen about every week and a half two weeks. We'll get a snippet of good news and the market will bounce up. Right now, we're looking at really really high futures. S and P's up three percent and everything's up something like three to four percent. And that's not because things got wonderful overnight. It's because some of the
fog clear. That's all the market ever wants is some clarity once to be able to predict here's how companies are going to be able to operate, and here's roughly what they're going to be able what kind of profits they're going to be able to make, And when we're throwing these tariffs back and forth at each other left
and right, there's no way to do that calculation. So at the moment the market is saying, okay, cool, I can see at least ninety days into the future because we know what the tariff situation is going to be with our largest trading partner, and a smaller headline was we did come to an official agreement with the UK. Now they're not a huge trading partner, and I was kind of googling this and it basically said we're gonna save hundreds of millions on Jaguar and land Rover, so,
you know, some help for the little guy. Finally, the cavalry is coming by Thomas.
Well, all this on the heels of yes, shipping demand has dropped precipitously. Of course, the tariffs have a large role in what we're going to be shipping from China to here, and of course global shipping apparently he's dropped off a lot. Is this all directly related to the tariffs or is there some other economic reality lurking behind the scenes on this Brian James.
Out there, there's always other economic reality, right, There's lots of little things pushing and pulling on the overall situation.
That's always the case.
But this is all tariff driven, and it's starting to feel to me like, I don't know if you remember December of twenty nineteen, early twenty twenty when we heard about a thing called COVID and it was going to be coming ashore in the next few months. Well now five years into the future, what we're hearing about is the fact that shelves are going to be empty. And that's what we're starting to see, not the shelves. I mean, I've been to the stores too, and don't I don't
see it yet. However, ports like Los Angeles, Long Beach, New York, New Jersey, they are experiencing large drops in cargo, especially from China. Import booking volumes down thirty five percent since March. Shipments from China down forty three percent. That includes electronics, plastics, vehicles, steel, textiles down by more than half. This is going to surface eventually. We have yet to see it, but it's coming.
Well, isn't part of this drop in shipping demand because a lot of these businesses and industries front loaded larger orders in anticipation of the tariffs ultimately kicking in. So you have so you have a large increase in shipping followed by a drop in shipping because I guess there's a limited storage space. There's only so much that any given company that buys Chinese goods, for example, can buy at any one time, even if they're trying to front load.
So and plus, you know, it really is kind of a tea leaf reading kind of thing because you don't know, as we kind of alluded to a moment ago, you really don't know what's going to ultimately happen. And Trump's been busily negotiating with one hundred and seventy different countries to come up as like Britain, some satisfactory a level of tariffs that we can all live and work with, and something that might expand the American markets. But that's
an ever evolving, ever moving landscape. So how much extra stuff do you buy anticipating tariffs are going to cause you a financial problem. It's like, if you want a restaurant, how much meat do you buy at the beginning of the week, how many people are going to order stakes you know you're gonna have losses. Are you gonna overbuy and have to throw things out? It's a complicated thing, it.
Really is, and that's why a lot of smart financial brains get paid a lot of money to understand exactly what their companies need. Unfortunately, the average American doesn't really have the ability to do this, with the exception of toilet paper, which is the first thing to go whenever it snows and whenever we have pandemics apparently. But yeah, so this is simply a business decision where they're just saying, Okay, it looks like it's going to get a little crazy in the next few months.
We really need to.
Stock up on this, that, and the other, but we're going to ignore these other things. And so what you saw, that's what triggered the economic poolback in the United States are our most recently reported economic quarter was negative. We don't call that a recession until we have two quarters in a row. But that was kind of self inflicted from a standpoint of because these tarifs were in place.
For the exact reason you just mentioned, companies and businesses started buying a lot more from overseas, therefore a lot less than the United States. So arguably it's possible you could be looking for a bit of a perk up in the United States domestic purchases as long as those products that these businesses need are available from the United States. Nothing magical happened in the first quarter to suddenly create factories where there were none. There are things we can't
get from anywhere else. That's why there's a lot of businesses out there suffering. And I'm assuming there's somebody screaming at their windshield right now saying, hey, that doesn't help me.
I can't buy domestically.
I have to I got to kind of take it in the pants here until we get these tariffs cleared up.
And I keep thinking of going back to COVID and you're comment about that. That's when we sort of all came to the realization that, you know, we don't manufacture a lot of things that you know, are critical to our even our nation's security. Pharmaceuticals came into mind immediately, when like, oh my god, we rely on China. For all of these, including the pharmaceuticals our members in uniform have if we had been sort of conflict, China just flips the switch and doesn't sell them to us anymore.
So there are reasons other than tariffs for US to have some measure of incentive to start manufacturing either with countries with whom we have no conflict, or at least start manufacturing them in here in the United States. But as you illustrate, as you point out, it takes time to ramp up, and it also comes as at a significantly higher cost because of the imbalance in labor between US in China.
A lot of this comes from the fact that the United States was founded and grew to its current size based on the idea of being the United States a profit margin. Everything we can possibly do, everything we can squeeze profit out of.
That's just the way that we roll.
So you talk about we want to bring pharmaceuticals on shore somehow, some way, someone is looking at that as Okay, I can do that, I can build a factory that's going to do that, and here's on what profit margin I want to make out of it. Nobody here in this country who waves a red, white, and blue flag, looks at that and says, you know what, I'm going
to do that for the good of the people. I'm not saying that's a good thing, but that is how we make decisions, and everybody does it, include I'll throw the unions in there too. It's expensive to build stuff here because of the protections we have in place for workers. There are union leadership out there who they of course, they get paid to kind of bring these deals to fruition, just like anybody else.
People who make.
Profits by creating products and services are really no different than the people who create, you know, a long running positions for themselves by leading a group of people in an union. Not good batter and different, but all of it winds up costing more and that trickles all the way back down to the consumer. That's kind of the whole point of of the United States. We are here to make a profit.
Yeah, and in spite of the troubles that you illustrate, you know, we are kind of a global economy anymore, which gives us options of manufacturing in places like China where it's cheaper. But over the last several years we've seen a lot new a lot of new investment in very large businesses and industry, and a lot of it
does seem to be taking place. So in spite of those challenges, apparently there is still some profit in building something here in the United States, like these battery manufacturing plants, or these artificial intelligence plants and other things.
Right, And that's the thing to bear in mind.
If we were in truly in the seventies where we had stagflation, but it occurred kind of organically, and I mean that. What I mean by that is that there are plenty of catalysts right now that are happening. Technology has been a catalyst for fifteen twenty years. It kind of changes with regard to what the technology is it's driving.
You know, twenty years ago, it was mobile devices and the move to kind of move being able to be anywhere and do your job and so on and so forth, and that has cycled forth to now to what you just mentioned artificial intelligence, which I can't imagine that's not
touching absolutely every industry very very very rapidly. But that's a catalyst for companies to become more efficient, increase their profit margin, and lots of companies are going to want to invest in supporting it because there's a lot of money to be made in So underneath all of this, when we stop smacking each other around, there is a strong economy and the dollars are still moving around in a circle. It just depends on how much longer we
want to It's a big game of chicken. How much longer are we going to have these fights with our various trading partners?
Well continue with Brian James. Empty shelves maybe maybe not, student loans they are coming do? And is there going to be a housing market correction? Those subjects with all Worth Financials Brian James on this Monday Monday, after I mentioned Chimneycare, Fireplace and Stove, a couple of reasons you give a call Chimneycare, Fireplace and Stove. They've been around, locally owned and operated a plus with a better business beers. It's nineteen eighty eight, So have your exterior evaluation done.
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Hundred fifty five KRC for more.
Information about twey if you have KRCB talk station. Brian James from all Worth Financially. He's a financial planner and he'll recommend you get one as I would recommend you get one. Just make sure they're working on your side of the table, and they OEU a finuciary obligation, which means you need to get a fee blazed financial planner and let them handle the heavy load on managing things on a day to day basis, taking the stress off
of your world. Brian James pivoting over real quick to a related story with the empty the global shipping grinding them is. And I've seen these red flags waving, you know, whaling and gnashing you teeth, Oh my god, and a lot of it's driven, I think by Trump arrangement syndrome. But there is something to be said that, you know, uh, if you're gonna have these massive tariffs, the idea of having empty shelves is certainly a possibility, But I suppose
it depends on what you're looking for. So are we going to see a bunch of empty shells and four lease signs the headline headline opinion, empty shells, four lease signs and job layoffs point to a recession by summer? Geez, you and I've been talking about a possible recession now for quite a few years.
Brian, Well, I think we're always talking about the possibility of a recession right.
We're never were, We are never not.
On our way to the next recession that's always coming up, right, It's also going to rain, maybe today, maybe a month from now, but by god, one of these days I'm going to be right about it. So, yeah, we're currently If when you look at the current situation, which is about as fluid as it can be, things are changing, you know, they change over the weekend, they go from black to white. So if you look at the current situation, then yes, it does look like we're on our way
to a recession that is triggered by this. But I think the reference you were making there earlier is that that up until very recently, everyone was looking for the second leg down from COVID. We only recently stopped talking about that. And I think I've kind of learned the definition and Brian of a soft landing. I think a soft landing is with at some point you realize you haven't talked about it in months, and therefore that was
a soft landing. We never declare that, Okay, it's all over, you know, everybody back and the.
Pull, everything's great.
We just stopped talking about it until the next one comes along, and here we are.
Yeah, That is a funny way of looking at it. But you're right, it's right around the corner. Maybe a little bit further down the road when you hit that corner. But something bad is always going to happen, But then again, something good will always happen too, Like I mean today, you know, if the futures are are indications where they are right now, it turned out to be true, it's going to erase all of the losses when since the day Donald Trump announced the tariff kicked in place. At
least that's what I read this morning. Yeah, we are clawing our way back to back to zero.
Really, the S and P five hundred is only down as we're sitting here right now, about four percent.
That does not yet reflect the futures.
So if futures kick in the you know, if this market kicks in where the futures are, then yes, we'll be back to even ish at least at the open.
Let's see what.
Happens, you know, around ten thirty when we all get our second cup of capuously out costs. Right, But at this point the market is recovering. And again you mentioned Trump derangement syndrome. The market hates question. It doesn't necessarily hate any politician or any political beliefs. It simply hates lack of clarity. And we have for sure had lack of clarity over the past several months, and that's what as we start to get these deals across the finish line,
that's what seems to be clearing up. The other thing, too, is we're starting to hear some pretty strong political voices say, hey, don't forget me, I have to run for reelection here over the next few years. Ted Cruz, Grassley and Ram paulse of being some of those big voices who are going to remind the president that they themselves are up and available to be re elected and would very much like to win those elections. So we can't keep smacking people around.
Right, And then they're doing that budget reconciliation thing, and you've got all you have everybody on the Republican side of the ledger, and they're hoping you have one hundred percent uniformity in terms of a yes vote on that. They're all fighting for turf and some of them want to keep the salt deductions as they are. Some of them are saying, if you don't raise those we're going to pull plug we're not going to vote yes on this.
Others are pushing to keep the Green New Deal stuff flowing to their states other than saying no, we get rid of all of it. So there's a whole lot of uncertainty sown into that particular thing, which includes whether or not Donald Trump's tax cuts will be made permanent. So I suppose those things might cause some market on stability.
For sure, because somebody is going to win these arguments. Right now, we're just in the shouting. We're maybe we're starting to exit the shouting stage and move toward the Okay, what are we actually going to do here? And the various parties are going to gain something as well as lose something. That's the only way these things ever get resolved. But we're going to have the willingness for that to
actually happen again. We've seen that with UK. Apparently we're going to get it with China here at least for the next ninety days. And it does appear that all these tariffs and things are more of a negotiating tactic than an intended, real, permanent type of a situation. Which if that's the case, then so be it, and I hope we'll come through this a little bit stronger, but a little more bumpiness to come for in the short run for sure.
Indeed, well we'll find out about well something that may impact your financial world. Your student loan is now doe, and there may be a housing market correction come in our direction a little bit, a couple more with Brian James after this word for Gate of Heaven Cemetery of Montgomery. Yeah, everyone needs a place to chill out and unwind and maybe get into a meditative state and relieve themselves from the pressures of the world, a place to pray, a
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It's a twenty nine fiftybout kercity talk station right house here with Brian James. One more segment doing money Monday. All right, real quick, I guess the writings on the wall. Student loans are due. You knew they were going to be due at some point when you signed on the bottom line and promise to pay them back. But some people think they were going to get a free pass things. So to the Biden administrations ever to buy votes. Never
understood how this was so popular. I mean, majority of people in America do not have college degrees, yet it was on their shoulders. College degrees were going to be forgiven. This is kind of calmon as a cost of the American taxpayer, which just never seemed quite fair to me. Brian, Hey, you may have got a degree and allows you one. It didn't provide a return on investment, but you did it, eyes wide open and time to pay the piper.
Yeah, it's coming around.
So there's five million borrows out there whose loans are in default, and about two hundred thousand of them are going to start receiving notices from the Treasury Department notifying them that benefits and tax refunds are going to be withheld pretty soon, starting in the next month. So we're just getting to the point where, remember it was almost two years ago that the Supreme Court struck down Biden's idea that we were going to wipe away student loans.
I did have a lot of clients I shouldn't say a lot of it, enough that I remember talking about it who were helping their kids with student loans, or perhaps had student loans themselves, only just recently with maybe this year or Q four last year, who kind of gave up on the notion that this was ever going to come around. So people were still kind of hanging on to even though the Supreme Court shot it down. Maybe politically, somebody else is going to come forward with
a solution. Well, we are at the We're about as far away from that as we can be. The people who are hearing today are the ones who are getting payments from the federal government for various reasons, federal benefits, tax refunds, of course, and if they are federal employees themselves. Some of that is going to start being withheld starting next month to make student debt repayment a big priority for the Trump administration.
In a form of what wage garnishments correct, Oh.
Yeah, lots of way you have the wage garnishments, or if you are on another federal benefit pension some people are, believe it or not, some people have student loans and are also on a federal pension. They've let them roll for years and years and years. If you're getting payments from the Fed government and you're in default or near default on your student loans, you can rest assured they're
going to make that connection. That's part of what DOJE has been doing, trying to connect to the entities that pay that send outgoing payments to people with the other entities that are receiving payments from those people. If you're on both of those lists, then they're going to kind of net out the math and say you owe us this, so we're not going to give you that payment.
Well, and I hope ultimately this mess results in some changes at universities and that they have some somewhat of a fiduciary allegation to sit young people down before they engage and embark on this borrowing, to point out the value on the real market of what that particular subject matter they plan on majoring in has I mean, is there a job before an art major? Are you planning on going into debt one hundred and fifty thousand dollars
to get an art degree? I don't want to pick on that particular degree, but I don't imagine in the world, and I always use Southey's as an example, there are only so many jobs available at the at Southeast and where are you going to work? A lot of people work for free is docents in museums. They don't get paid for it, So then the university have some sort of obligation to point that out up front.
Yeah, and you would hope, but I don't think they do. And I think back too.
So I went to a high university out in Athens, and when I was finishing up, they were building what's called the Ping Center, which is a nice student building where you can exercise and all kinds of stuff, and early on, I think before it even opened, they started hitting everybody with a search charge on your tuition because
somebody had to pay for this. It wasn't going to open until after my wife and I graduated, but we were paying for it and I remember there being articles in the local paper about the fight that OU and every other school has to be in to attract students. They have to be able to say we have cooler facilities than these other places. Good, bad, are indifferent. People will pay for it, And that's what universities have done
for twenty and thirty years and longer than that. In one of those articles was a story about one of these schools that had a giant student hot tub, which just sounded like the most disgusting things. An college student was grossed out by that. Yeah, but that was touted, as you know, as an attraction. That's the environment that we've been in for a long time.
It is. But I would think that them advertising their success in getting people employed at graduation would be the biggest dangling carritive incentive to go to any given university. Pivoting over market correction for housing? Is this a positive market correction?
Oh well, we'll see. So this is coming out of Texas.
Texas is a little bit of a microcosm here undergoing a significant correction, oversupplied, declining demand, and affordability issues listings. Housing listings reached one hundred and twenty three thousand last April, which is fifty three percent higher than normal. It's the fourth most oversupplied housing market in the US. And I remember I have a lot of people friends of mine
who ended up moving to Dallas for job purposes. There was a ton of jobs out there because that's just you know, the better tax situation and also the idea that there is so much land down there it doesn't cost much to just build a new neighborhood. Nobody, none of these folks I'm thinking over the past fifteen twenty years, none of these folks were buying used well the old existing houses. They were all building because it was just so cheap because there is so much land and so
much space to build out there. Well, Texas leaned into that. Now we have an oversupply, so they're expecting the impact is going to be potential four percent drops statewide in the value of houses I'm looking for. Affordability challenges are going to last throughout twenty twenty five, and it's still going to be about overvalued by about ten twelve percent by the end of the year.
Well, at least it's getting closer to the realm of affordability. For notably the first time buyers, I would argue, but I think interest rates are going to have to drop before some of these houses become really within the grasp of financial reality for a lot of people. And if that happens, of course the market could flip then, couldn't it.
Yeah?
Absolutely, and then it could turn pretty quickly because that the forces that drove this migration to Texas. Remember a few years ago, it didn't matter where we live. We all got the idea, I can live wherever I want. Some people said, the heck with it. I don't want winter and I don't want taxis.
I'll just go to Texas.
And that created a boom, and the builders overran the boom and just kept building, building building until the actual demand stop.
Demand stop when people realize when they moved there, damn it's hot here, it's really really Or why did I move to Houston? It's like walking through of hot water in the summertime. Brian James always financial. Appreciate them loarding you out every Monday for Monday Monday. I look forward to next Monday, another edition. I hope you have a wonderful week, my friend, have a good week.
Talk to you next week.
Thanks man. Coming out next empower you. Doing the last seminar of the year with doctor Robert Malone. Injuries from the COVID vaccine. More more information coming out almost every single day on that frightening reality. We'll get to doctor Malone give us a little insight to what he's going to be talking about next. After I mentioned well, Peter Shabria Kellor Wins seven Hills, the only real estate team I'd ever consider calling, got the number memorized five one
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