Ato six if if you find Karen c De Talk Station, Brian Thomas right here. Glad to be especially on a Tuesday, because this is the time we get the inside scoop with bright Bart News bookmarkt B R e I, t b a art dot Com, some solid reporting from folks like my guest today, John Carney, bright Bart financial letter and co author of breit Bart Business Digest. John, welcome back to the morning show. It's a pleasure to have you on as always.
Yes, thanks for having me pleasure.
Man. What's this election going to mean to the economy? I was kind of glad. I think everyone expects the Fed to lower the interest rate, but at least they waited to laughter the election because that's certainly would have been viewed as some sort of perhaps election interference. At least that's the way I perceive it. But by all expectations are supposed to lower it. I know, folks that are interested in buying a home expect a little love
in terms of interest rates. But generally speaking, Kamala Harris versus Donald Trump, the outcome is going to have some impact on the economy. What's your take, John.
Yeah, So, the so the Fed did cut in September, but mortgage rates have gone up since then because the market actually doesn't think the FED will be able to keep cutting. They're almost certainly going to cut later this week in November, but after that, either in December or sometime next year, they are going to have to slow down their cuts because, frankly, there are parts of the economy, including consumers spending, that are just too high to justify
further cuts, and we're actually risking further inflation. I think that what we're going to see after this election is probably a lot of uncertainty. Remember it's not just the presidential election, but both houses of Congress, and it may take a few days to learn who's going to be president, and it could take even longer to learn who will control Congress. All of that will matter a lot for how the economy is going to develop over the next few years. A Republican sweep is viewed by a lot
of people. A sweep by either party really is viewed by a lot of people as probably auguring in more deficits. I'm not sure that's right. I think actually a Republican sweep would lead to both lower inflation and lower deficits, whereas if the Democrats do well, they will have more or less been rewarded for driving deficits up to record highs and driving inflation up to record highs, and so
therefore they won't ever stop. I think we will get a resurgence of inflation if we get Democrats, not just in the White House, but if they do well enough that they capture one or both Houses of Congress.
Well in terms of the Democrats taking over both Houses of Congress, at both houses and the presidency, so give them a clean sweep. You suggest that spending will never stop, doesn't I know inflationary realities or dollars you print the less value they have. Anybody with a measure of common sense understands that. But we are on an already unsustainable path. Debt service is already close to a trillion dollars annually.
That's more than we spend on defense. We do have obligations, some would argue, maybe less than we should have, but we have global obligations as well as obligations here. Domestically, our social welfare safety net is collapsing and underfunded. So how can that trajectory continue without bringing us to our knees and causing our collective bankruptcy.
John, I think there's a big problem here, and this is one of the reasons why if the elector rewards the Democrats and Biden and Harris in particular for having driven up inflation with their unnecessary American Rescue plan so high, forty year high in inflation, if that doesn't have electoral consequence, I do not see why they don't do it again. It's like, you know, if you can tell a child, I'm very sorry, you know, I'm very upset at you for having stolen, you know, eaten the cookies out of
the cookie jar when I told you not to. But if there are no consequences, when the cookie jar is refilled, the kids can will be right back in it. That is exactly what it's going to happen with the Democrats. If Kamala Harris comes in, she will see it as a basically as a mandate for them to get back on this Green New Deal, massive subsidy spending program, and they are going to do it all over again.
Well, and you know, I keep going back to the reason why the Democrats are the fascists in spite of what they scream with Donald Trump. But again going back to the reality of that is this just fiddling while the country burns, and they think they're going to outlive, or rather that their time on this earth is going to end before the co collapse hits, because you can't sustain this kind of spending. It's just every country that's ever gone down this road has collapsed. We've got so
many illustrations. I don't even know where to begin.
Remember though, that they so one is they are in denial. They still say, you know, price hikes went up. You know, prices went up because of greed or putin or whatever. You want to imagine anything but their program. So one, they're a little bit in denial. But two, as institutions collapse, the Party of big Government benefits because they use the government to step in. So as we have communities fall apart across America, that benefits the Party of big centralized government.
That and so they don't necessarily look at the collapse as something that's bad for them. In fact, it tends to benefit them. I'm not saying they're rooting for the collapse of the United States, but they do benefit from a lot of the things that are going to happen between now and for their deterioration.
Of our republic right b our financial letter to John Carney. I just have to point out what it may be obvious to so many people, but I still have to say it out loud. They create the problem that causes the collapse, and then of course we the government will rush in with a solution that will solve the problem. It's like the whole green thing. You know, if we weren't worshipers at the climate cause, we wouldn't have the
problems we're facing right now across the board. They're the ones that force these solutions, so called solutions upon US windmills and solar panels that don't generate enough electricity and also cause well geopolitical realities like helping China and China's military build. But then they have to come to the rescue and solve our problems with high gasoline prices, intentionally high because they refuse to allow us to drill and refine.
They come in with a subsidy or tapping into the strategic petroleum oil Reserve to soften the blow of what they created. It's insanity, that's right.
Look, I mean that the metaphors almost suggests themselves. It's like a burglar who also has a home security company on the side. He robs your house and then tells you how much you need a home security system to protect you, or an arsonist who is also a fireman. They are causing the destruction that we are then that they and then they come in with their solutions that
actually tend to make things worse. Look, one of the things that we got in economic news just yesterday is that the average age of a first time home buyer has gone up to thirty eight because and interest rates are so high. Think about what that means for family formation in the United States. If you're a young couple, you want to have a family. Maybe you know you have one child, you're living in an apartment, you are
hoping to buy a house. If you have to wait till you're thirty eight to have the savings to be able to afford a house, this means your children, This means more dependency on government. That is, we look at that and say that's terrible. We need to bring that back down to the normal level. It was thirty one, thirty two, thirty three before thirty eight is basically saying we're not going to have families in the United States. The Democrats look at this and they say that's a feature, not a bug.
Well, and some folks may connect the dots with this whole idea of the fifteen minute city and the idea that you know, we shouldn't be had. We shouldn't own these large homes or even modest homes out in the suburbs. Those are bad. We have to have more commute time causes pollution. It's unfair, it's not equitable, whatever I think that's built into the equation. It's what they want. They don't want people to have private home ownership, and if they own something, they want it to be a tiny
little home. Hence the rezoning that's going on in all these different cities around the country at the behest of liberals who want to, you know, build more condensed and apartment dwelling type housing as opposed to individual homes.
Right. It's it's sort of hilarious. And this is a great example of what we're talking about. We say, oh, no, you've created a system where we can't afford home because you drew prices and interest rates through the roof of your inflationary policies. And they say, I have an idea. You can live in a pod instead. Thanks right, that's
the solution. And by the way, the pod living and the no children means that the government goes bankrupt even faster, because the thing you need the most of the society are young people to support your elderly people. When you're not producing enough young people, your elderly people are therefore more dependent on government than before. And that again is part of the program. It's why that when we say
it's unsustainable, they say, no, it's sustainable. It just means more government from now until the eventual We know how this will will eventually end unless we vote correctly, right, we have a choice. It's not inevitable. We can turn back the tide. But if we reward what's happened over the last four years with another four years, it becomes harder and harder.
It does. And of course the fat is these problems and our refusal to have children as a multitude of reasons for that justifies and supports their open borders argument, which is, well, this is the replacement population that we won't have. We need work there, We need workers to do the jobs that Americans won't do. We've been convinced that we won't do certain jobs that always blows my mind. But that serves as justification for the insanity on the southern border, in northern border.
And actually that is another circular argument again where when you have fewer children, then you bring in more immigrants, that actually discourages family formation because it lowers the income of young people because they're now competing with more young people. So rather than having a cycle where when you had a wave of fewer children, you then get a baby boom, after that, you bring in the immigration boom, which supplants
the baby boom. Those immigrants then don't get along as well with their friends and neighbors because they're from all over the world, which requires more government. So it is, you know, all these things are very very deeply connected.
You're absolutely right, And there is a you know, and we're faced with a choice, right and it's very clear, do you want more of what we saw, you know, high prices, unrestricted, open borders, higher crime, or do you want a economy that will promote family formation, that will have price stability and will have secure borders, you know, And frankly, that's the choice. They don't want us to
look at it. In those choices, they say These are all separate policies, don't connect the dots, but you just did a great job of connecting.
This all well. Thank you. I try to apply logic and reason to any situation, and that's where I come down on this actually seems as obvious as you had our conversation out loud this morning. Going back to your initial comment, though I really must do this, John Carney Bright,
part Financial Editor, Consumer Spending, you said it's expected to ry. Now, I've read any number of articles about consumers already maxing out their credit card debts, and given the landscape of inflationary pressures, I'm just wondering, I mean, are there that many extra dollars around to allow consumers to increase spending
and any given moment. I know we're entering Christmas season, which is like the biggest time we spend, but I mean home budgets, they face the stark reality the federal government doesn't have We don't have a printing press in our home, so we've got to mind our budgets. And you know, the weight of credit card debt is almost insurmountable given how high the regular the credit card rates are.
Well, I have some terrible news when you look at the money, the amount of money in the economy, it's actually been rising again for the last three months. I don't think that's a coincidence that this is happening while we're going into this election. I think they've actually turned on the metaphorical printing presses to get more money into the economy. And they cut interest rates in September irresponsibly,
one before or eight weeks before the election. So yes, they are putting trying to put more money into the system. And frankly, look, as long as interest rate, as long as unemployment stays low, and it's been very low, uh, then we will still see a lot of consumer spending because people don't spend just out of money they have now, they actually spend out of money that they expect to have. So if they feel secure in their jobs, they will keep spending and they will run up credit card debt.
It's unfortunate because credit card debt is very expensive right now. And if I were, you know, if I were to give people advice and they don't do that. But look, it is still happening, and people are when you look discretionary spending, spending on restaurants, spending on airplanes. People are spending on things that they could choose not to. That tells me that consumer spending is going to keep going strong.
All right, fair enough, and one final question before we part company. Let's us say assume, for the sake of discussion that the Republicans sweep everything and they choose to make good on their long standing promise to be fiscally responsible and cut down the size and scope of government. Do you think we have any hope of that happening? With Elon Musk having some role in that, as is suggested, may happen.
Yes, Elon Musk came in and found that he could fire tons of people at Twitter. He runs his other companies very leanly. There are offices inside of every branch of government that shouldn't even exist. Does every part of the government need a diversity, Equity and Inclusion office? Of of course not. So just start right away and zero those out. And by the way, you have to fire all of those people. And because if you just say eliminate the office,
they get transferred and do the same job. You actually have to say how many people work in this department in your agency? All right? You have to get rid of them, and that well, I mean, look, that's not that much money, but it will set the tone. They could do that on day one with an ex second quarter.
Well, I've been living for that day since I became aware politically in my late high school years. It's dreams, but let's say the dreams can come true. John Carney, appreciate everything you do. Probly. I have one of my listeners in Florida just chimed in instant media you are her favorite Breitbart reporter. And I know a lot of people feel that way very much. And Marie loves you, John Carney. We love you too. On the fifty five Carsy Morning Show, keep it the great work with Breitbart.
Tell everybody there that the fifty five Carssy Morning Show listeners said, Hello, I'll look forward to another edition next Tuesday. We'll be logging in John's been fun today eight twenty one. Coming up at eight twenty two, Stick around Daniel Davis Deep Dive at the Bottom