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a twenty minute delay. Between Florence and the cup Mail Chuck Ingramont fifty five KR.
See the talk station.
Hey thirty eight here Fifi five KRCDE talk station Happy Wednesday always made extra special, an alliterative segment every Wednesday at eight thirty, The Daniel Davis Deep Dive. You can find him online Daniel Davis Deep Dive. Search for it. You'll find his podcast and his interviews with other folks. Of course, retired Lieutenant curl and he knows what there is to know about war and strategy and the like. Welcome back, Daniel Davis. It's always a pleasure to have
you on. We've got a couple of conflicts to talk about this morning. Hey, let's add one more?
Yeah, why not? I mean it is Wednesday, one on hum Day. Hum Day maybe had another war.
We could maybe the war breakout in Taiwan while we're talking right now, Daniel Davis, and I say that really without joking. It is a terrible situation that we're dealing with right now with our global affairs, but we are dealing with them nonetheless. So let us start with the latest on what's going on with Israel. It looks like they got a leg up on his Bala. The reporting I saw Israel launched its attack on his Bala's missile systems and you know, military systems about an hour before
his Bala was getting ready to launched them. I think his ball even acknowledged they were going to like launch it five point fifteen or something in the morning, and I guess the Israeli defense forces and their intelligence got wind of it and decided to do a peremptory strikes.
That's actually the claim lack a lot of these things. You gotta look through some of the claims to see what was actually happening on the ground, and certainly in this particular case, it does appear that Israel got the
leg up on it. But it's also kind of with an asterisk because when Israel launched this, it was one hundred warplanes, which is typically not something you do on a spur of the moment because it takes a lot to get that kind of activity, coordinated, resource prepared, armed, fueled, all that kind of stuff, but it does, You're right. It was many found it interesting to me being one of them, that the Hasbaala didn't even try to claim that no, no.
No, that wasn't the case. That didn't get us before or whatever.
So it was one of the few times of actually admitting the truth to from the Hasbola side. But it's also important to see that probably the claim by the Israeli they took out a thousand launchers is probably exaggerated because it's not likely that Hesbela would have exposed that many in this very narrow band of five kilometers north of the border that Israel struck. It's also instructive to
look at what Hesbola did after the fact. They still launched the largest missile and drone strick that they had done of the war, over three hundred that were fired. But it's also important to point out what kind of rockets they fired. They fired with Kotusia rockets and a
number of drones, which are easy to knock down. The Katusha rockets, frankly, are probably about as accurate as bottle rockets that you would fire fourth of July, but they have The Hesbala side does some much more sophisticated rockets and rocket launchers and missiles that can penetrate the Iron Dome, and for whatever reason, they chose not to fire those, so net Is both sides have basically said, Okay, we're good for now.
We don't need to escalate this further.
And that's my concern every day, is that this is going to explode into another war, but it does ratchet it up because the scale keeps going higher.
Well, and does this not perhaps Incentivius's ball to maybe you know, tone it down or perhaps even enter into some sort of negotiated peace. I know, we keep talking about negotiated peace, whether we're here in Ukraine with Russia, which we'll get to in a moment, but everybody, so we need to get peace and gods and we need you know, you know this. This looks like you can put a whim column check for the Israelis on it, since they did some significant damage to their military capabilities.
But does it do anything to change the longer term dynamic?
Yeah?
No, it I think you're right on both counts that certainly in terms of this engagement, this tactical engagement. Definitely on the Israeli side, they came out on top of it because they were very effective in knocking this down with their own assets and their own resources. Their intelligence apparently was accurate. It was good because they did preempt something, but nothing it condition wise, has changed. And understand that Hezbola has somewhere all accounts north of one hundred and
fifty thousand rockets and missiles. And even if they had taken out one thousand, that still leaves a whole bunch it's left, So they have a lot of capabilities.
The question is going to be what next.
And to your point there about the negotiated settlement, No, this is just a tactical setback. I mean they're in a conflict here and they're not going to give up because of one setback.
They'll just be getting ready for the next one.
Well, as we get ready to pivot over to the Ukraine situation, they got one hundred hundred and fifty thousand, call it, two hundred thousand rockets and missiles. They're still keeping their powder dry with those. If Israel had knocked all of those out much in the same way. If old let's say Ukraine uses up all its one hundred and fifty five millimeters shells, there are going to be more where that came from, right, I mean, Iran is not going to let his Bolla go completely without.
Yeah, that's actually what I was just about to say that because you can't look at the Israeli has Bola situation without look the Israeli Hamas situation and the Israeli Iran situation. Because Israel, as we've talked about its taken a lot of provocative actions.
Towards Iran, you know, blowing up their embassy.
Compound in Syria and certainly making that assassination in Tehran, which, by the way, is the next big thing we're waiting for, because Iran reiterated yesterday that they will still retaliate for what happened in Tehran at a time of their choosing, which implies they're either not ready, they're trying to coordinate more stuff.
It's unclear what all's going on.
The US is radic, you know, ratcheting up all of their diplomatic power to do everything they can to get Israel to agree to a cease fire with Hamas, thinking that that might take the impetus off of Iran for retaliating.
That remains to be seen, but that is the big thing that everybody's looking for next, because if Israel does something big, it would definitely be done in coordination with the better stuff from Hezbela, and there is genuinely a military risk to Israel, so they've got to tread a little bit careful on how they proceed forward.
Well, I mean, if Iran is the head of the snake and the head keeps growing up, you know, the different limbs, or keeps growing a different body, or can rearm, as the case may be. More directly to the point, this isn't going anywhere. I mean, they they're hostility is open. They hate Israel, they hate the Jewish people collectively. They think they're the big problem in the entire region. And it doesn't seem to me that Irn's going to sleep at night until Israel's wiped off the map at some point.
Well, and of course from the Irani perspective, it's the exact mirror image of that, because they are physically getting attacked by Israel a lot, and they fear that if they don't do something, it's going to be them that's
wiped off the map. So their fear is actually driving us, because I'll tell you Iron definitely does not want a war, but they fear for their own existence, and if they keep getting attacked by Israel, they may actually launch, you know, some kind of what they'll call a deterrent strike, which is what they're claiming even in diplomatic diplomatic arenas yere right now. But you know, the farther this goes, the
more chance for one overreacting or misinterpreting. And then of course the US has said it Israel dust get into a fight with Iran.
We're definitely in.
So this has direct implications for American national security. And I assure you, if anybody doesn't want war, it's us, and we should be doing a lot more to making sure all the sides tamp this down.
Yeah, apologize to the interruption of the video. If this has been going on all morning, sir, so don't blame yourself. Just some kind of technical glitch we're having here, all right, let us pivot over to Ukraine.
Israel.
I see that the Russians just launch another barage one hundred and twenty seven missiles and one hundred and nine Iranian design Speaking of Iran, a running design shah Head drones into Ukraine, hitting a lot of the power systems, at least knocking out more power. I'm actually shocked as we sit here and talk today, Daniel Davis, that there's still power at all in Ukraine given the Russians capabilities.
Where are we here on the heels of Ukraine entering into Russia, which we talked about last week.
Yeah, yeah, listen, this was not just the biggest missile and dron strike by Rush. It was also the most effective.
This when I saw a map of where the strikes actually took place was it was stunning even for me, because almost every single oblast in the entirety of Ukraine was hit, which means the air defense system was almost non existent anywhere, to include Kiev, and usually Kiev has been successful at knocking down ninety or even sometimes one hundred percent of what's struck, and almost none of them
got shot down. I actually saw some of the drone footage I'm sorry, not drone footage, but the missile footage of the of some of the slower moving warheads that came in that nothing even slowed them down.
They all hit the target.
And now that the energy infrastructure, especially the electricity generating capacity is down about forty percent to about forty percent generally speaking across and there are some sections where they're still without power, that's going to be a major problem number one for Ukraine's ability to generate war material you know,
run factories, et cetera. But especially as we now we're getting close to the cold season, there's not enough power generation to do that, and the Ukraine authorities are already telling their people in the cities make provisions to go to the countryside where you can have firewood to burn, et cetera, because they know already there's not going to be enough and it's going to be a really bad winner.
For the Ukraine side.
Well, and give credit to Russia on that one, because that in terms of advancing maybe a peace discussion, they just shown what they're capable of doing, and that those missile strikes apparently show what Ukraine is incapable of doing. Maybe they're out of iron dome type weapons systems, but they're in for a much bigger problem if if Russia made a habit of just doing exactly what they did the other day, like okay, we showed them all we day, Let's wait a couple of days, let's do it again.
I mean, that's going to back Ukraine in the corner. I read somewhere that they think a million people have been killed in this conflict so far. I know, the fog of war, going back to our earlier comments, but I mean this just keeps getting worse.
Yeah, yeah, you've got obviously, you know, truth is the first casualty in any way war. Both sides have a motivation to exaggerate casualties and minimize them on their side.
But the truth is probably somewhere in between.
But I think given the amount of firepower between the two provided by fifty nations on our side in Russia, with North Korea and Iran on its side, it's massive capacity. I think that's probably gonna be turnout to be a good number or a pretty good ballpark figure.
And it's just catastrophic.
I will point out, because you mentioned it a second ago before we get off, you're about the curse incursion. This could be turned out to be the biggest disaster for Ukraine because they can't sustain it.
I mean, it was self evident.
You can't invade a country the size of Russia with twenty thousand people and think it's going to succeed. And since we've talked last day, have made a couple of incremental games on a couple of these little fingers you may have seen on the map.
Yeah, but they've also lost a few. So it's basically a.
Net netive trying to hold what they have, but their casualties keep going up by the day and it just can't be sustained. And pretty soon I think they're either going to have to withdraw or they may end up being driven out, and it's it's not going to be good for the Ukraine side.
It's just terrible all around. That loss to life is just incomprehensible. Daniel Davis deep dive search for me to find them on YouTube and elsewhere on social media. Daniel, I love having you on the program. It's always an enjoyable exchange, even if it is on some pretty difficult subject matter. That's why I like havin you on.
Brother. I have a great week.
Well, brother, I appreciate We'll talk next to you up in e forty two if you have caresee the talk station.
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