Hey thirty on a Tuesday. Regular listeners know it is that time for the Daniel Davis deep dive, tucking to retired Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis about, Oh my god, the whole world's coming unglued almost overnight. The world has changed, kind of like the fall of the Berlin Wall in Syria. Welcome back, Daniel Davis. It is a pleasure to have you on, particularly in these very interesting times.
Well interesting times is an understatement, Yeah, it is. It is a lot of chaos and lots and lots of uncertainty.
That's a fact. Well, and that's the bottom line. Everybody's got their popcorn out to find out what's going to happen after the fall of Bashar al Aside obviously he's been in civil war for thirteen years. The Iranians are heavily involved, the Russians are heavily involved. You got the Turkish involvement, you got the Israeli situation because you know the goal on Heights and the issues there. It's just in a mess. Charlie Foxtrot I think out of accurately
summarizes it. But Ba Charlot's side bad guy, So nobody's really that disappointed that he's gone, considering his murderous regime. But what is gonna fill the void? Here? We had multiple factions of different organizations, some of them are the lo most fundamentalists. And okay, so the way I've been viewing it, and please correct me if you think this is an inaccurate assessment, the enemy of my enemy is
my friends. You got all these different factions. We are more than happy to sort of fight collectively the Bashar al Assad regime. But now that he's gone, who fills the power void? Yeah, that's exactly the right, one hundred
percent agree with you. I think your assessment is spought on because we had seen You may recall when the Obama administration had tried to affect the regime change in Syria with Bashar al Assade and we were, you know, funding all these allegedly moderate rebel groups which were nothing more than offshoots of al Qada and several other kinds of violent Islamic agreements. But hey, we were engaging in the friend of my enemy of my enemy is my friends situation.
So we were funding all these groups. But you famously remember.
That some of the Obama CIA funds went to one group, some of the Obama Pentagon funds went to another group, and then they end up turning on each other, and so they were as distracted as anybody else. Well, this guy here appears to have figured out how to solve part of that problem by getting all these different factions working together, or at least he assembled enough factions that could effectively work together. And so they did, and then
they started this march. But then because of the absolute rot of the internal security forces in Syria, they basically just marched on the capitol, not unlick the Taliban did against the Afghanistan security forces because of the rot there, and there wasn't even much fighting, and it was very similar how those two things came about. But now comes
the real question. This guy is saying. Jolani, the leader of the HTS that was the umbrella group over all this has said, you know, hey, we're kind of modern now.
We just want to govern.
We don't want to start this Islamic caliphaith that's going to suppress all these people, all these Christians and drus and you know, other kinds of minorities.
They're fine, we're not going to harm them.
But that's not what he said earlier in his career in twenty fourteen, he said almost exact opposite.
So now it's going to depend on what happens later on.
I'm guessing that he's going to act like a good guy for now. But we'll see if this coalition holds together, as you just mentioned, and then we'll see whoever comes out. Do they still have that same moderate view or do they go Taliban esque and start changing when they get into power.
Well, during this period of absolute dysfunction, I mean I just talked with Joe Pollock from Breitbart, and the Israelis retook that base that Siria had and the goal on Heights, which of course helps Israel in terms of its security. The Turks now have an opportunity to advance into this you know, disarray, this this defenseless region, and they've course
had their eyes on the situation for a while. And the Turks, I understand, will be very influential on a going forward basis to see who actually comes into power. Iranians it looks like they pulled the plug. The Russians looks like they pulled the plug. So you don't have them coming to the aid of the sad regime. And I'm not sure where either of those two countries thin to the equation now, because their hands seem to be full. I mean, I guess I'm just kind of at a law.
That's why I say, am a popkar. It is going to be out for a long time on this one.
Yeah.
See.
Interestingly, so Israel has done more than just you know, secure the gold on hots. They're actually, as of this morning, continuing to move closer to Damascus, and we don't know how far they're going to go yet, how much territory they're going to take, what they're gonna do with it. They have been bombing incessantly throughout Syria and destroying all kinds of ammunition, deposed weapons, e posts, basically just crushing the ability of anyone to rise up to even use
this for the foreseeable future. Right then in the north you have the Turks who have been the actual Turkish army has been making some in roads and they've had troops in Syria for a long time, and there's Turkish back. Here's the biggest problem for US is moving more aggressively against the Syrian democratic forces our proxy. So you have two NATO countries has proxies going against each other in the north east part of Syria, and this just has a lot of opportunities.
To go bad.
There's already a lot of bad blood between the US and Turkey on a number of other fronts. And you know, obviously Turkey and Israel are not on the best of terms as well. So there's you may need a bucket of popcorn for this one.
And maybe it's fair exactly well, insofar as the Turks concern, is this a potential opportunity to perhaps right the ship a little bit in terms of our relations with Turkey. Could a Trump administration sort of, you know, diplomatically reach out in an effort to you know, forestall the Turks supporting some radical Islamic form of government in Syria.
Yeah, I don't know.
That's gonna be tough to do, because the air to one is an opportunities and he will exploit any and everybody he can, and he'll work with somebody only to the extent gives him benefit. And if Trump doesn't come in and have some benefit for him, then he's probably
not very willing to do that. And Trump has got a difficult task to navigate with the Syrian democratic forces because does he just say okay, everything that we've done up to this point, to include when he supported them during his first term, that now he's just gonna say, okay, well, aired one wants to so you guys are all on your own.
We're gonna withdraw all our guys and good luck to you now.
I will say that that should be the first thing he does, is withdraw our troops for our sake. But it's gonna be it's gonna, I don't deny, it's gonna be a tough play to what do you do with the Syrian Democratic forces? Do you give them some other kind of support? Do you negotiate something with AIRED one? And what if air to one doesn't do it and they literally kill thousands upon thousands of the Kurds in that area?
It could get ugly, very ugly. And insofar as israel I know they've been striking chemical weapons facilities, rocket missile arsenals to to you know, again, take away any ability of whatever future government might have to launch it against them. Some have suggested that by doing so, that frees up the airspace and gives them free reiin to hit Iran and maybe wipe out the Iranian nuclear program during this period of time before Trump's takes over. Any thoughts on that theory, Yeah.
There's I mean practical whether that was the intention or not, that certainly is the effect because now then there's no Serian to even worry about what the air defense or anything else, and they have destroyed much of what might have existed on top of all the other targets that they've been servicing. But and you've had Jack Keen on Fox News a couple of days ago, it recommend exactly that that Trump should go in and basically go to war with Iran, which I'm one hundred percent against. That
is not a good play. We do not need to go to war with Iran. In fact, what all this has shown is that Iran is substantially weaker than we thought, and now they're even weaker still the area. Oh, they are no threat to us, So going to war with them gains us absolutely nothing and could cost us a great deal. So we can contain them. We do not need to go to war with Iran.
Well, I like hearing that because I don't want to engage in another war. But let's face it, the Israelis told the Biden administration where to go. They went and defended themselves, They went into the uh Uh to Gaza. They dealt with the the Huthis and the Hama or Hesbala and Hamas very successfully. So maybe maybe Israel just decides, you know what, well, Iran is weak, while Siria is decimated, We're just going to blow up ourselves some nuclear facilities.
So there's that, There's that military angle, But then there's also the question I have burning in the back of my head as I read about the Israel strikes on the on the chemical weapons facilities. Isn't there any collateral concern about blowing up chemical weapons facilities and releasing the chemical weapons out into the atmosphere. Same question goes for radiation when you're bombing all these centrifuges. Is that is that a legitimate concern?
Yeah, it absolutely is.
But that also causes me to to be a little skeptical that there are all of these chemical weapons factories, you know, and all the places here, because that's exactly what you would see you released into the air. It can't be any other way, and at least so far, and there's plenty of international organizations that monitor that stuff that we haven't had any reports of that. I think all the targets up to this point have genuinely been military.
Targets the regime.
I mean, I'm talking about tanks and artillery pieces, conventional weapons depots, arms depots, et cetera.
So I don't think that's going on.
I will say though, that don't get too much ahead of our sales on the Israeli success, because they have
had enormous tactical success, it's spectacularly so. But the medium and long term issues because none of the issues that will caused ten to seven, for example, have been resolved, and a lot of the civilians that have been killed in Lebanon and in the West Bank, in the Gaza, there's going to be some medium and long term difficulties for Israel to have to navigate what's happened as a result of those.
So they're not out of the woods by any Daniel Davis Deep Dive. Enjoy talking to you every week, and wow, we've got an entire year's worth of conversation just sticking with this one subject matter. You know or maybe not. We're gonna find out together again. Your bucket of popcorns out, mine's out, and I will enjoy another conversation with you
next Tuesday. Between now and then, my friend will encourage my listeners to search for your podcast, Daniel Davis Deep Dive and tune in next Tuesday for another another discussion. Take care of my good friend.
Always my pleasure, my friend.
See next week. Take care. It's a forty fifty five KR. See the talk station. Got my buddy John Roman coming up. You're gonna be happy you're hearing hearing from John Roman. He's this terrific guy and a better way to get medical insurance saving the heat loads of money. And I Meantimesimmer Zimmer Heating and air Conditioning. They got the HVAC system twenty two one hundred dollars savings on the Carrier Comfort System, brand new Carrier Comfort System from Zimmer Heating
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