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It's a thirty here fifty five ks the Talk station are very happy Tuesday to you. Always made extra special happy at this time because we get the Daniel Davis Deep Dive retired Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis joining the program to talk about global conflict every Tuesday. Welcome back, Daniel Davis. Love having you on the show.
Always late to be back, Brian, thanks for having me.
Well, we've got, of course Russia, Ukraine and some of the list of demands coming from Russia.
We'll get to that in a minute.
I wanted to start this morning with Israel and Hamas because Israel started striking, hitting targets in Gaza again, Hamas refusing to release any of the hostages. I guess I kind of question whether or not they're still alive. I think a lot of people believe that they probably aren't. They had been kept in horrific conditions, but nonetheless, the bombing resumes. What's your take on this deteriorating situation? And I guess the follow up question we can get to it.
Do you perceive that there will be a tax on Iran, since Iran is the one that's providing with all the weapons and armaments.
Well, you know, it's a bad situation. I mean, there's nothing good about it for anybody. It's not good for Israel, it's not good for the US, definitely not good for the Palast any people. And you know a lot of people were concerned from the beginning that this ceasefire was not going to hold, that it was not going to get to levels two and three. And in fact, neither Israel nor Hamas seemed to be very interested in even
talking about number two. Both of them are very I guess you could say stubborn in a sense that they don't want to compromise anything to the other side. And as a result, now then you have the war continuing on. Israel had claimed last night that they had evidence that there was going to be another offensive move. I thought that was a bit odd from the Hamas side, and apparently this was a preemptiy strike against that. We don't have any independent knowledge of it, but all I can
tell you is that the continuing of the war. There's no end in this, there's no achievable military objective here. It's just the resumption of the killing, and it's just going to harden the positions on both sides. We saw how Hamas weathered the storm for the first sixteen months, there's no reason to think they can't do it again. And I really, really really hope that this does not
expand into Iran because that won't solve anything. I mean, the Gaza strip has been hermetically sealed for the since October seventh, twenty three, so they're not getting anything new from Iran. So I don't think we should use that as a causus bell out to expand the war because all that will do was cause more killing, and it can cause more problems for us and it won't solve anything. So I really hope they find a way to avoid that.
Well, if nothing's getting in, Hamas is going to eventually run out of things to throw at Israel.
I suppose well eventually, but see, because the hamaside had foreseen this from the beginning, and so one of the things we discovered during the seas far when Hamas had come up, was that the tunnel network was much much more elaborate than even the best case we thought, and that they have enormous stockpiles of all the different categories of things.
You need to continue fighting.
So that's not locked me to go away anytime soon, because they have just so much of.
It stored up. Unfortunately.
Well, you know, there's a lot of parallels I guess you could draw between Ukraine and Russia on that too. Nobody wants to capitulate, nobody wants to give up any sides, and nobody wants to give any ground because it's going to viewed as a concession or they'll lose face or something, I don't know, in order to prevent the loss of life. I think these kind of positions may be a bit childish and people should be a little bit more objective
about the circumstances. But as you point out, and it just it sort of occurred to because it does from time to time. You know, the guys is not that big of a territory. And when you think of all these tunnels that were yet unknown and how long it's taken to find them, and they haven't even found all of them, it really does illustrate when you look at the size and might of the Israeli army and their intelligence capabilities, which are purportedly some of the best in
the world. How difficult and challenging it is even to deal with a very small piece or real estate.
Yeah, I mean it's hugely I mean it's small in the sense of like on a national level. Yeah, but it's I think it's like twenty twenty something miles long, So it's not small, you know, per se. You know, it's a pretty large area and there are two million people living in there, almost on top of one another, so it is very very dense, and you know, you just can't go in there and find all of these things because these people are really good at hiding them.
I mean they're they're as smart as anybody else in the world, and they've have found ways to hide these things from these raels, and they're good at doing that. They did this or the Hosbola did similar things in the Lebanon area in the north of Israel. Center and those that kind of knowledge is transferred around, they're able to share back and forth through various means, you know, lessons learned, kind of thing, and so they become quite
good at this. And it's if somebody's from the Palaest interview, if they're being oppressed like they have been and they've been denied freedoms and everything else. They will do whatever they can to try and cantinue to resist, and that's that's what they have been doing.
And you know they built up.
Years before this, so you can't undo years worth of preparation, even in whatever it is now seventeen months.
I guess you're just pivoting over to the Houthis and the military strikes on the Houthi rebels and yam And what's your take on that. I'm not a real big fan of launching missiles into countries against whom we have no declaration of war. I'm a pretty strict constitutional attolitic
when it comes to that. So you know, I just I keep looking for the day when some other country is going to decide, you know, Donald Trump is a war criminal and launch a rocket from their country and try to blow him up because the technology is like right there. So beyond my practical and constitutionally based arguments, they are shooting missiles at our vessels.
Well, they in this particular case, we launched the first strikes. They they had announced they had. When the Israeli ceasefire went into effect with Hamas, so too did the Houthis. So they stopped bombing the Red Sea shipping at that time, but they announced it because Israel had gone back on the ceasefire agreement and had blocked all the food ad for the entire Gauza strip. Then they said, okay, if you don't release that, then we're gonna stop quit our
ceasefire and we're going to continue attacking shipping. So before they did, then the United States took action and launched this. Now, then the Hoothi side said, okay, well, now then we're not going to stop at all. In fact, we're going to start attacking your ships as well. So far the
attacks have not succeeded. But you know, I worry about what happens on the day when just one of those missiles or one of those drones gets through our defenses and that almost happened during the Body administration and strikes an American warship, because then the outcry is going to be huge that oh it wasn't just the Hoothies, it was only because of Iran, and that's going to be used as a causes Spella to expand the war further, and back to your constitutionalist issue that has to go
through Congress.
But I fear it won't. No, it won't.
There'd be some authorization to use of military force, which is not a declaration of war, and then they'll have that laying around for the next twenty years as an excuse to launch missiles and rockets literally anywhere in the world. I mean, that's what happened with the author's issue used the military force when it came to the global war on terrorism.
Right yeah, And you know, I'm aside from all of those important issues, there's also the military aspect, and this is just a militarily unattainable task. I mean, the Houthis
have shown since twenty fifteen. They had nearly a decade of war with Saudi Arabia with our help under the starting on the Obomba administration, and they tried to bomb the Houthis into subservience and it never worked, happened, and then the Israels joined in after ten seven and we along with the Biden administration, it never stopped them because I mean, they're just too resilient there. They're used to that. They have a lot of this stuff buried in sides
of mountains, et cetera. They have a lot of mobile launchers, and they have the indigenous ability to produce it. It's not unlock what people say all the time. It's not just coming from Iran. They have their own capacity as well. And so we if we think that we're going to bomb them into submission and you know, and make them stop, I think we're going to find out all it's going to do is make.
Them do more.
Yeah, and they have the will to continue to fight, and it's pivoting over. Speaking of will to fight, the Ukrainians and the Russians look like Vladimir Putin's got a list of demands and you and I were been speculating on what they might include, and I've come to understand that an absolute guarantee that there's no military presence there peacekeeping forces from NATO, but also a guarantee that Ukraine will never get into NATO. So how's that going to
work out? I know Bill Clinton renegged on the promise to the Russians and allowed Poland into NATO, or at least he was largely responsible for that it happened under his watch. Is a promise if it's conceded that they'll never enter NATO, is that something that can be counted on?
Well? And that's one of the big things that actually the Russian side is saying. It's it's almost a I don't know what the word is.
A thing that the US always in the West a large always says, well, we can't trust Putin, we can't trust the papers written on Well, from their perspective, the exact same thing is true in reverse. They won't trust what we have said because we have gone back on so many things.
And I could listen a lot more to what you just note here.
So what that tells me is that the Russian side, from a position of strength, is not going to rely on the trust that will do things, but that they're going to have to have some actions.
And I think one of the key ones.
Is that it doesn't get talked about very much in the Western media for some reason, but it does on the Russian side is the demilitarization aspect of Putin's conditions, which is a reduction according to some of the statements coming out of the Deduma a few months a couple of months back. Is that they say, hey, you're going to only have an army of eighty five thousand something along the lines of the Versailles Treaty that ended World War one on the Germans, and they said, that's what
we're going to rely on. So then they don't have to worry about whether or not you're going to keep your word. But if they have a small army, then they won't be able to threaten Russia on their on their border.
Uh.
That's gonna be the hardest, one of the hardest ones, other than they would have to give away more territory of the Ukraine side than they have already.
Yeah. Uh, And it's hard for.
Me to see how that's going to be diplomatically agreed to.
But that's where we are.
So absent a diplomatic agreement, which is going to obviously require some significant concessions by Ukraine, this is just going to keep going then, and Russia's continuing to fight right now.
They are.
They have just almost completely cleared out the cursed Pocket, which had started last August.
Uh.
That was a presumed to be in a negotiating chip in the hand of Zelensky to try and trade away something. Well that's now gone, so he doesn't have anything to trade. But that also underscores that Ukraine doesn't have the military capacity to hold on to anything. Ergo, they don't have the power to demand that the Russian side does anything, and Russia says, hey, we have this whole system in place here, we can continue fighting for another year, two years,
if we need to. They have that mentality, they have that capacity, so they don't have to have a negotiated settlement, unlike the Ukraine side does.
They have to because they can't keep fighting forever.
They're already in a significant deficit every month on the number of casualties they have, bust how many people they bring in because a lot of those dessert and the quality is poor and poorer every month.
So the time and the cards are not on the Ukraine side. Well, and I suppose practically speaking, you know, to the extent someone perceives that Russia can roll over the entirety of Ukraine, that will be you know, they'd be fighting guerrilla warfare against all the Russian troops from now until forever. They could just occupy the Russian areas and be like occupied France and World War Two. You know, you had Vshi and you had Paris, but there were
areas that were completely controlled by the Nazis. You'll have areas that are completely controlled by the Russian military and they'll call it their own. It just won't be a negotiated treaty, right.
And that's exactly what the Russians are Many Russians are saying that they there's this areas they call it Novo Russia, New Russia, which which compasses all the way through the Danepa River in the north up to Kiev and then pass the Danepa River beyond Odessa to Transnistria and Moldova in the south. And those are primarily and predominantly ethnic Russian people, so they would not have as much Now.
I think that there probably would still be some because it's not all ethnic Russians, and some would have an incentive to keep that going for a long time. So I suspect that would be an issue. But Russia doesn't want all the other areas to the west, where it's significant anti Russian Western Ukrainians who hate Russia.
They wouldn't have any interest in doing that. They wouldn't even try.
They just want what they can control, and that Danepa River is a big deal because that provides a great military success or defense as well to a natural barrier that can be effectively defended. That's what they're looking for to defend their western border. That's what I think could happen if we don't get a negotiated settlement.
It looks like that's what's going to happen, regardless of a negotiated set of And Daniel Davis Deep Die find him online when you get your podcast. Daniel Davis every Tuesday here on the fifty five K Same Morning Shaw. I'll look forward to another conversation next week.
Daniel.
It's always been great. And Brian, take care of my good friend. Eight forty three, fifty five krc DE talk station. We're gonna have our Ask the Expert debt from odoregsit coming on next stick around for that.
I'll be right back.
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