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I'm at eazelak on fifty five KRCD talk station six point thirty right now, if do you have CARCV talk station and always enjoy this time a week get to talk to Daniel Davis retired with a Colonel Daniel Davis with the Daniel Davis Deep Dive. You can find his podcast where you get your podcast. Welcome back, my friend. It's always a pleasure to have you on the show.
Always a pleasure to be here.
Brian can't wait forgive the camera angle change. I came in here this morning and someone had shifted switched up the cameras, and I'm not the tech guy. I have no idea how to get the camera back, so I'm kind of looking at you from a different angle. Apologies, but I can see you, and We've got a lot to talk about this morning. Let's start with Russia Ukraine. They had a Russia massive strike on Kiv the other day, and I know Trump's been trying to finagle some negotiations.
Putin's not necessarily cooperating. Trump then has a conversation with Zelensky, and after saying last week that we weren't going to be providing any additional arms, I wake up to find out that Trump is now resuming sending weapons to Ukraine. Question for you Daniel Davis. After all the converse we've had on this, can it do any good? Will additional weaponshipments, whatever they happen to be, have an impact on the direction of this war, which is not going well for Ukraine.
Yeah, that's why I'm kind of scratching my head as well, because I thought the ideal that they should withhold the weapons was good a week ago when you and I last talked, Because look, there is a certain number of ammunition stockpiles, especially most importantly on interceptor missiles air defense
interceptor missiles. That's something that there is a certain number that the United States has to keep in our stockpiles in the event that we get into a war, especially one that has to be sustained for some period of time. We've got to have enough to provide for our own national defense. Sean Parnell the Defense Department last week said that, hey, we did a review. Turns out that we're getting close to that. So we have to look out for the needs of America first and will help Ukraine as we can.
And then all of a sudden last night and the President to completely change his course when he was talking with reporters with NETANYAHUU over dinner and says no, actually, now we're gonna go ahead and do it.
Now.
It's unclear exactly what that is because he specifically said defensive weapons. They need some help, but he didn't say what those weapons were. Is it is it defensive interceptor missiles, is it more artillery. It's unclear because they haven't specified what it was. Sean Parnell listed or issued a statement last night confirming what the President had said, but he also didn't say what the weapons were or anything else.
So we don't know what that is.
But I can tell you authoritatively, whatever they are, it's going to be in small numbers and it is absolutely not going to have any impact on the war at all. I mean, when we had everything in the world, especially in twenty twenty two, twenty twenty three for that offensive, if that didn't change the dynamic, this small trickle, just to a slightly larger small trickle is also not going to change the term.
So I'm not really sure what the objective is here for the US.
Well, the listed armaments, at least as a report of the Wall Street journally start out patriot anti missile interceptors, and we can that's what I want to focus on, but AM one twenty anti aircraft missiles. Howit's arounds, AGM one fourteen hell fires missiles to arm the hi Mars rocket launchers, Stinger anti tank missiles and grenade launchers. But focusing on the Patriots. Those are the defensive weapons. Those are the ones that shoot the rockets coming in from
the foe. Now I seem to have read and correct me if I'm wrong. If you saw something different that there was expectation that Russia could maybe launch as many as a thousand rockets at Kiev or pick another target or area of targets. I mean, you're not going to send over one thousand Patriot missiles. I mean, these things are multimillion dollars a pop. And the idea of shooting down that kind of barrage of missiles, it just seems like it's an impossible task.
Yeah.
Well, the claims that there will be a thousand, there could be soon up to one thousand air Ara objects going towards Ukraine. So those combination of drones and missiles, and what the Ukraine side has done is that they limit the air interceptor missiles only to like the kinsols or the cruise missiles et cetera. They don't shoot them
at the drones. Problem is you can't just ignore the drones because the drones are often sent to the missile batteries, and if you don't take those things out, then you're not going to have them to shoot the missiles down later on, which is one of the Russian objectives. But the bigger issue is we don't have them. It's not even as important how much each of those interceptor missiles cost, and you're right there, very very expensive.
But the problem is how many we have.
According to open source information, we produce maybe six hundred per year. And in that and a blast like this, you could use thirty forty or even more interceptor missiles in one barush And you can see that's not gonna last any time at all for the whole year. And we can't go down on our own stock policy. We put our national security at risk. So I just don't know how you're going to square this circle. Well, what's your prediction for what happens next? If Phutan's not willing
to sit down. I mean it was Zelenski's all giddy with excitement about getting another arms shipment, but that doesn't solve the problem. It doesn't solve the problem of their manpower shortage, and it doesn't solve the problem of Russia making further and further inroads in the Ukraine territory. Now, a couple of things that happened in the last week since you and I talked. Julian and Urupka for the German journalist, who's probably one of the best cover in
the war in the West. He's very pro Ukraine, but he admitted in an interview on the July first that hey, I'm sorry, folks, but there are not enough Ukrainian men. He said, there are sometimes just a handful of men to defend an entire village, and the Russians have more men, and they have more bombs, they have more drones, et cetera. So they're able to take them methodically one after the other, even if it's slow.
The Ukraine side can't stop them. That's the one issue.
Then on the second side, you had just last night you had Sergei Lavrov again say hey, look, we want to have a negotiated settlement. We're looking we're inviting the Ukraine side to come back to the third round of direct talks, which they've had two up so far in this nimbool, but then he listed his conditions, which are
just as draconing as they have ever been. Meanwhile, Russia has made more offensive operations and advancements in the area Pakrosk, and they have now resumed their offensive in Assumi area and then also kind of in the northern Kupeyansk area, et cetera. So they are continuing to relentlessly onslaught move in as they say they want negotiated settlement, and you have the Ukraine side doesn't have enough manpower and they don't have enough ammunition to do anything on the battlefield,
So well, where's it going. Russia's gonna win the war if we don't have a negotiated settlement.
That's well, and that's obviously from you have to give them props the Russians for having these strategic objective in their sits. Continue to pound away, you're winning, You're whittling down their troops the virtually nothing, they're running out of munitions, and that pushes us further and for to a point of capitulation where we get what we want.
Draconian as our terms may be.
Well, that's the point, and either they're gonna and they keep saying this, and they've never said anything else. Quite frankly, they're either going to get it through a negotiated settlement, which are these draconian terms, right, or they're just gonna seize it on the battlefield. And they're showing that they have the capacity. And believe me, Russia is able to
read the newspapers too. They know how few ammunition or how little ammunition the Ukraine side, the Western side has to give, and they know that they are continuing to shrink the Ukraine army every day, because it is clear that Ukraine is not able to force mobilize as many people as they lose on a daily basis, probably in the order of several thousand, and so that means every month their army is shrinking, and that diversity or that disparity that Julian Rupka noted is only going to increase.
And at some point, Brian, at some point there has to almost methodically, mathematically, there must be a break somewhere, and then the Russians have one hundred of thousands of operational reserves that they can flood into a break if they find one.
That's where we're at.
Doesn't paint a very pretty fixture, at least for Ukraine.
Right now.
Pivoting over to the Israel Iran situation, I see Iran basically cracking down on its people, confiscating cell phones, murdering or executing a lot of people that they believe to be friendly with Israel, perhaps spies, I don't know. The graduate imagine the sweep is a little bit broader than people who are actually guilty of cooperating with Israel. But
that seems the direction they're going. I presume that the powers of beer a little worried about a coup or perhaps like a military coup for example, or a popular uprising.
Yeah, they are the.
Issue with the surprise attack by Israel on the so called twelve day War, because it was predicated or started with Massad agents being physically inside the and you know, firing these drunes off, very similar to what the Ukraine side did to Russia a month or so ago and the bomber fleet.
The Massad agents did the same thing.
Well, they had to have some help on the ground, that much was very clear, and they had locations all over that had a much bigger effect than just a tactical help.
On the first couple of days of the war. Now it has the.
Iranian regime and a panic, and so they were cracking down. And I actually had a conversation yesterday online with a friend of mine who has direct contacts in the Iranian side, and they're just in anguish, especially the Kurds, because the regime is using this opportunity to crack down on anyone's eeming suspected of anything, and they're definitely going way overward because they figure, look, let's just use a big net and that way we'll be sure to get the all
of them, even if we get some people who aren't guilty. Yeah, whatever sucks to be done, but we're gonna do it. That seems to be their attitude. And the Iranians have to be careful with that because if they go too far on that, they could actually cause some of the simmering hatred toward their regime from the inside that could give it fuel. It remains to be seen, and this source who's been connected for many years and wants to see an uprising on inside, says, so far, it's not
that far. It's not gone that direction because the opposition is not unified enough. But if you keep pushing pressure, you could create it just briefly before we part company today, Daniel Davis, a brief word or two on the Hoothy's firing rockets at ships.
Going off the coast. There, Where is this going and where do you see this ending? I mean, if I can even use that broad of a question for you.
Yeah, there was another ship that was sunk in the Red Sea, which the Houthis claim was a ship going to that was helping Israel. It was from a company that already has one ship in a port at Israel. So that's the connection between the two here. But this just shows that despite what we did to the Hoothi's despote with the Israelis, because they also launched another series of a taxi gainst toothie targets in some ports, et cetera.
You're just not gonna shut him down. They just are going to suffer and suck down whatever missiles you want to send. But they are committed to what they're doing and they're going to continue to fire at some lower level, but some level it is as they've been doing for a full decade already against the Saudi's, against US and against Israel. You're just not going to shut this down. Okay, real quick to what end? Yeah, they have to warn something.
But if they're I mean they're if they're if they're not shooting the hoothies, do they want the war against the the the Palestinians in Gaza to stop?
They said, if you stop that, we stopped this one.
And when we had the ceasefire last time, they did until we started attacking again. So if there is a ceasefire, if Trump is able to get a ceasefire with Nan Yahoo, as he says he may be within a week, then that will also stop.
Huh.
Well, maybe there is a bright spot in this discussion. Daniel Davis Daniel Davis Deep Dive every Tuesday here in the fifty five Jarsey Morning Show. Of course you can find his podcast throughout the week. Daniel, always a pleasure having in the program Sir, my.
Pleasure, my friends.
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