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Eight twenty nine on a Tuesday. You know what time it is. It's time for the Daniel day of his deep dive retired Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis to WINS a program every Tuesday at this time to talk about well usually warfare, war strategy, and what's it looked like on the ground. Welcome back, Daniel Davis. Always a pleasure to have you on the fifty five Krsey Morning Show. Always a pleasure to be here, Brian, thanks for having me.
All right, well, let's start with Ukraine. I saw an article of Wall Street Journal Russian masses fifty thousand troops around Sumi, putting Ukraine in precarious position. They described as the Ukrainian forces being outnumbered three to one and some really high casualty numbers also going along with that on a daily basis. Plus, the Russians continue to gain ground and take over more land. Now looking real good for the Ukrainians right now? Is it?
Well? That hasn't been looking good for the Ukrainians for years. Man.
You can really go all the way back to the end of twenty twenty two where they had probably what's going to be in history. Is there two signature successes in this whole even at the tactical level, with the taking of the Kirsn city and the Kharkiv region, when they forced Russia back over thousands of square kilometers. Since that time, it's been almost all downhill in the backwards sense.
For the Ukraine side, it's beginning in the twenty twenty three offensive where they were crushed in there to attempt to drive Russia out, and ever since that time they have been on the defensive, and as you pointed out, evidence suggested Russia's ramping up for a pretty solid summer offensive really across the whole front line.
You mentioned that in the Sumi area.
Interesting thing about that claim of fifty thousand, it seems to be that they're prioritizing the Russians numbers of troops and not so much like mechanized forces and tanks and the armored personnel carries, etc. Which implies that they're still and they're going to ramp up their preferred strategy tactic,
which is to cause Ukrainian casualties. Not so much to take ground, because you're not going to take a lot of ground without a lot of mechanized forces and other things to allow you to get further down their field. But they do have enough to get up to the line and then continue to have casually, so I doubt you'll see a big movement in terms of how much territory is taken here in the next coming months, but you will continue to see a very high casualty rate.
And as we've talked before, it's a zero sum deal and the Ukraine side just doesn't have men to replace those they lose well.
And I was thinking that along along the lines of well.
If they ask for more military hardware, then they I mean, you have to have someone to operate it. And with a declining number of people behind, you know, triggers in the Ukrainian military force, which is the direction that's going. They're running out of people. I mean, extra equipment in arms is not going to help them with their depleted forces, It doesn't seem I mean, I don't know if they're clamoring for more from aid from the United States, what
NATO's position is on this visa. You giving them additional arms and weapons. But you know, back to my fundamental point, well, and.
That's been my frustration, especially in the Hague with a NATO meeting and you know, all these big meetings that you keep seeing all over the television, and Zelensky again when he's making these speeches and everybody's cheering loudly and all this kind of stuff, and they're talking about how the you know, NATO's going to go up to five percent to GDP in the next ten years, and a lot of that's going to Ukraine.
They're going to give them X, Y and z et cetera.
The Zelensky is talking, I need air defense missiles, and I can certainly understand his desire to have that, but no one in this all of this self congratulatory parade talks about the fact that you just mentioned here about the personnel. If we give you all this stuff, who is going to operate it? Because there is a dearth of people of the front line. They still are having terrible situations where they are grabbing men.
Off the streets.
In Ukraine, they're talking about lowering the age of mobilization down to eighteen. It's terrifying a lot of parents, and there's a lot of people leaving the country trying to get out, especially they have sixteen seventeen year old kids. They want to get them out before it gets to eighteen, et cetera. There's just no people to continue to operate this. So you're going down a path that's going to they will lose a little bit slower if we get this stuff, but it's not going to change the outcome.
You will lose well.
And they've got Grandpa's behind the trigger out there on the front lines too. I mean, we're talking, you know, some seniors out there that are have taken up arms and trying to defend their country, whether they want to or whether they were pulled out of a bar, and we're told to that just as reflective a very desperate situation.
On.
You mentioned the five percent that Trump was able to get the or the NATO forces to contribute to their own defense, which I'm glad to see happening, and we've been footing the bill to defend them now forever. But that's a gradual process. Just because they're there and they agree that, okay, five percent of GDP is going to go to the they have to build up their militaries.
They don't have sizeable military forces right now. They're going to have to acquire the weaponry and the machinery and the hardware, which is going to be a gradual acquisition.
Just by them agreeing to do that doesn't benefit Ukraine at all, Well, it doesn't, and in fact, there's when you appeer a little bit more into the details of what's been claimed, despite all the happy headlines and the claims that we're gonna go to this five percent, which is a staggering amount above what they've been doing for decades by the way. Yeah, uh, then you look at the details and they're saying, yeah, we'll do another reassessment
about a year after Trump leaves office. So all this congratulations and claims that they're gonna do this or that for uh, for NATO. And you saw Mark Rucha, the NATO Secretary General, just lathering up Trump one side and down the other, praising him in public and saying all
these wonderful things. But called me cynical, But I think that a lot of these European leaders have no intention to ever meet five percent, But they just want to get Trump off the stage into well they can get a more amenable president maybe that might not be as concerned as he is about, you know, not doing more than our share and allowing them not to.
So I just called me skeptical. We'll see how it works out.
Yeah, but you're talking tim years and they have all their own domestic economic issues. There's gonna be a lot of elections.
Between now and then.
I'm just put me in the will see camp. Yeah, I'm with you wholeheartedly on that. I'm Jaden and cinecal about most everything. So yeah, I'm gonna wait and keep my popcorn out, wait to see what they actually do. And let's face it, yeah, they might have conceded a Trump's demands at least on paper, just to sort of get them in the room with him when he hit
sits down with him and talks about tariffs. You know, it's like, you don't want to be in a bad position visa v. Trump if you have to negotiate with him. All right, let's pivot over to the situation in around is in Israel, I personally have no idea how much damage was done to the Irani nuclear facilities. I haven't been in there. I think people are still struggling over whether or not it's been damaged for months or years.
I guess the significant takeaway from me is at least there's a ceasefire and they're not dropping bombs on each other and killing each other. Right now?
Do you see that lasting?
I mean, some of the statements from the Iranian officials that are still alive or a little bit troubling, most notably the factois that was issued on Trump and net and Yahoo the other day that that's not a step in the right direction. But whatever, But how do you see this?
Yeah, Frankly, you have those kinds of statements coming from all three parties, the US, Israel, and Iran. So in my view, this is nothing but a pause because all three parties needed it. We needed it because especially with what we're still trying to do with Ukraine and what we had tried to do in the Red Sea, and then now with this, we didn't have enough air defensive interceptor missiles or offensive missiles to maintain a steady state
offensive that could have lasted many months. For example, between Iran and Israel. Israel obviously was running short on interceptor missiles. They'd been firing, you know, for a long time here, and now they stepped up, and you know, the Iranian show that they had a significant capacity for missiles despite
what some may have believed. I think you and I have been talking on this show for a long time that Iran did have the capability to penetrate the iron DOILM system, and now they've proven it and Israel doesn't have the capacity to endure that kind of sustained hit, and they've never suffered this in there our history to the level they have here, and they can't sustain it.
Iran also couldn't sustain what they were enduring because they basically had lost their air defense system, so the Israeli jets were flying with virtual impunity around with the well.
So yeah, so the bottom line, everybody needed a pause.
But nobody has changed their position, nothing has been accomplished, so as far as I can see, we're just waiting for it to restart.
Okay, And I guess given the incredible uh Israeli intelligence, we've got to give them props for you know, sneaking in and setting everything up for this this strike that they did. I mean, it seems to me that's changed the whole nature of warfare when you consider DRNE technology and how you know, moving in and hiding things close
to the targets is an achievable objective. But don't you think given these rocket batteries, these missile batteries, I would argue they take up some large space that Iranian intelligence or Israeli intelligence would know where they are. So these this open air space that they were able to get and achieve that. It just seems to invite launches of more air strikes to blow up the very missiles that they can't shoot down once they arrived in Israeli airspace.
Well, they certainly wanted to do that, but Iran for decades has been well aware that if they got into a fight with Israel, that this is how the fight would be done. So they put very few of their launchers out in the open to be seen or like in buildings that where it can be easily identified in the building blown up, So they've all been the majority
have been underground where they remain. So they have the situation where like in actually North Korea has done this for many decades and that may be where they originated. The idea is that there is like you know, these hardened caves and then the blast doors will open, the launcher will come out, it will fire's load, and then
it'll go back in there. So unless you have a plane in the air just looking or a drone of some sort that can have a target of opportunity in minutes, you can't get up there before the thing's back in its container.
So it's very very difficult to do that, and.
We don't even know how many missiles and launchers Iran actually has. You know, I saw some people claiming that forty percent of the launchers had been destroyed, because that seems to be the key issue. You can have a million missiles, but if you don't have any launchers, it's meaningless. I don't think anyone really knows how many launchers. They have to know what percentage has been the damage, so I would not expect that that's going to go away anytime soon.
And I imagine they're spread far and wide geographically too, so absolutely fair enough. Retire with the Colonel Daniel Davis. Always a real pleasure having on the program. I'll encourage my listeners to search for your podcast, Daniel Davis Deep Dive and as always, I'm looking forward to next Tuesday in another discussion, Man, I already am too, Brian, Thanks very much, Take care, brother, have a great week. Eight forty fifty five kr SE detalk station.
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