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A twenty eight fifty five KRCD talk station.
Happy Tuesday. I always look forward to this hour of the week because it's time to get the Daniel Davis Deep Die with former retired Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis doing war analysis and perfect timing on this Welcome back, Daniel Davis. It's all as a pleasure having you on the fifty five Case Morning Show. Always a pleasure to be here. Brian Well continuing a theme that we've been talking about
with Russia and Ukraine. Every week we talk, we talk about how the Russia has a much stronger position going into any discussions about a ceasefire or resolution of the war whatever to stop the bloodshed. They have said repeatedly over the course of the last week as we fast approached this meeting to try to resolve the conflict with Donald Trump in several days, that we're not giving up the land that we've got. We demand some concessions on land.
We demand that Ukraine be precluded from entering NATO. I mean, it's the same line in the sand that Putin's been drawing from the day one, only to get in response from Zelensky and apparently the European UN. No, we're not going to concede Land, and we're not going to give up the possibility of Ukraine entering NATO. So we're at this stalemate. Well, things have just gotten better for the Russians as we move forward to this meeting this weekend.
Let my listeners know what's going on in the Eastern region. Daniel Davis.
Yeah, there has been a continued stalemate in the political realm, but in the military realm it is far from that, and in fact, there has been some pretty major developments in about the last forty eight hours where there has been a major penetration of the Ukraine lines by the Russian forces north of a city called Pokrovsk.
They've been going after this for quite some time.
We've been mentioned in I think several of our conversations we've had in recent months that this is something Russia has been moving closer and closer towards. But now then it appears that they have a major breakthrough where they have moved in twenty four I'm sorry, in the thirty six hours about twenty kilometers deep and now about seven kilometers wide. They're expanding their bridgehead and the reason is because Ukraine simply doesn't have enough men.
That's been a theme you and I've talked about for a long time. Now it's actually manifesting in.
A really powerful way because Russia many of the trench lines that they went up to, and they've got video showing this, there simply weren't any Ukrainians manning them. Defensive lines were good, they were certainly capable of doing the job, but there weren't enough troops demand them. So now Russia has penetrated through those lines, gotten behind some of them, and now then they're extending deep and wide into to the last major line.
Of ukraine defense.
This is similar to what Ukraine was trying to do in twenty twenty three when they wanted to penetrate the Russian lines of defense, make a breach and then put troops in to get all the way down to the Azov coast. They never made it past the first one because Russian's defensives and their manpower were sufficient to repel that.
Now then the situation in reverse. Ukraine doesn't have the number of troops and if Russia continues to exploit this right here, there are no defensive belts in the remainder of the interior of the country, and if Russia has the forces and crucially the logistics to be able to back this up, they could continue to roll as far as they can drive, because Ukraine simply doesn't have the
manpower to stop them. Now, Ukraine does recognize, you know how critical this is, and according to all the sources I can ascertain this morning, they're literally throwing in the kitchen sink. They're using all their strategic reserves, the Azole Brigade, they're pulling folks from other portions of the front to try and stop it. But here's the problem, Brian they don't have fortifications in this area, so they're going to be fighting in the open, which means that's going to
give the advantage to Russia. Russia accomplished this by a combination of drones, of course, troops on the ground mainly infantry, not armored so far, but the glide bombs have been a huge issue. The artillery. They have just been saturating these areas, making the thin lines even more brittle. And now then we've seen a major break and it's unclear if Ukraine can stop and you know, coming literally days
before this, Trump putin meeting here. I mean, if anybody was ever looking for political leverage, you know, at the highest levels, this is certainly providing it. And it just almost shreds any kind of hope that Trump can go in there and deal with the Europeans are going to ask him to do. Tomorrow, there's a big meeting between the heads of state and Trump on a phone call to try to convince him not to quote give away the store, but there may be nothing to quote give
away because the Russians are simply taking it. This is the most the deepest penetration Russia has had in two years of fighting, and could come at a time when it signals this war could be coming to an end. It's not gonna happen overnight, but this could prove to be the pivot point that sees this war come to an end, either negotiations or through a Ukraine loss.
Well, in terms of conceding land, obviously, Russian now is controlling a bigger chunk of land. Is this Pakrovsk region? Is this one of those areas that's predominant Russian leaning, like we had with Crimea, where they could make a legitimate claim because hey, these are Russian people. They would rather be affiliated and under the leadership of Russia as opposed to Ukraine. We're taking that area. Other areas of Ukraine are more independent. Folks don't perceive themselves as to
be Russian. So how about this particular region and this new area that they've taken over.
It's a mix, but it's there is still a significant portion that's ethnic Russian. And there is all the way to the Daneppe River and what the Russians concerned called Novo Russia, which is I think eight oblost the first eight. Instead of the four that have currently been annexed, there's eight about eight up to the river. That importantly includes some of the area where Odessa is in the south,
which is beyond the Danepper River. So there's a lot of area there that includes a lot of ethnic Russians, and certainly they would welcome this, but there's lots of others who are not ethnic Russians who are fearing it.
Well, what do you expect to happen this weekkend Daniel Davis, I mean, a moment of clarity for everybody in the European Union. I mean, interestingly enough, Jad Vansh just said the other dav was yesterday, we're done funding the Ukraine war business. We want to bring about a peaceful settlement to this thing. He said, We're not gonna pay for
these arms anymore. European Union wants to do it. Fine, but you painted a scenario that even if the European Union showed up today with a whole bunch of arms, there aren't enough men to use the arms to fight back the Russians. So are we gonna have a moment of clarity this weekend when they're all gonna wake up and say, you know what, Vladimir Putin's hand is a lot stronger than ours. We don't have anything to bargain with. We're gonna have to start cutting up Ukraine.
You know, Brian, if there was going to be a moment of clarity, that it would have already come. These information, this fundamentals have been there almost from the beginning, and I've been, you know, beating my head against the wall. So if there was a moment of clarity, they would have already gotten it. So I doubt I honestly, I've out even now they'll have it. And in fact, some of the statements I've seen in just the last twenty
four hours. This shows that a lot of the European leaders are still oblivious.
To this and just no, no, no, no, we just need more stuff.
We just need the US to give us more interceptor missiles or artillery pieces.
Whatever fill in the blank. They just want.
They just aren't willing to So I don't think even this will provide clarity. I think the only thing that could provide clarity is if you see Russian mechanized formations exploiting this penetration, and instead of just infantrymen who are limited by how fast you can you move to walk to portions of the front, they could then, once they have it broad enough, they can drive in and now then you could see not tens of kilometers falling per day,
but hundreds of kilometers falling per day. Then you might get a moment of clarity where they realize, oh, snap, we either end this now or we could lose everything to the Dneppa River and possibly beyond, which is very much a real conces.
Well, and let's assume that's gonna happen, because that's what seems to be going on every week we talk about it. Russia improves its hand. They seem to be in a collective state of denial obviously. So if Russia does go out away to the river and they get all the land that they're hoping to get, and they accomplish that, they bring the tanks in, they roll forward quicker, I suppose will Russia be able to hold it? You and I have talked about the concept of an ongoing, long term,
protracted like guerrilla warfare. The Ukrainians will take to the hills whoever's left and constantly pester and shoot and attack the Russians in a piecemeal fashion, never giving them any peace whatsoever. Can the Russians maintain control over that region once they have control of it?
They seem to think they can. And that's still I mean, the answer is really unanswerable right now. We can only project. But the Russians apparently are aware of that, have considered that, and are prepared for that, and they apparently will want to hold onto areas where it is mostly ethnic Russian.
And look, I'm not going to defend this, but I'm just and say that I would guess, and no one's told me this, but known history, I would suggest that if they take this area to the Dipper, they'll probably expel any population that is not pro Russian, that doesn't want them, you'll see a version of ethnic cleansing, just like we did in World War Two in several places in the ugly aftermath of that fat You know, it happened when the Germans were moving forward, they ethnically cleansed areas,
and when the Soviets came through, especially in Eastern Europe, they did the same things. And so I unfortunately would expect something like that to happen because Russia doesn't want to get into a situation like you described, so that they will try to clear it out. And they still expect tho that there would be some for they said.
One source I've talked to you said, there's a five year plan post the end of this conflict where they expect to have to find that and then over time it'll peter out, which matches what we also saw in the post World War II area where the Soviets had a lot of that, especially in Hungary and Yugoslavia and some other areas. We saw that and it took four or five years to peter out before it finally did.
And looks like the Russians are prepared for that. Well.
We can have a long term discussion on it. But that sounds to me if I can draw a parallel and link its sover Because we haven't talked about Israel Gaza, it looks like Israel's going in and just going to completely try to like not say ethnically cleans, but basically try to throw everybody out of Gaza as a strategy.
Now, well, I.
Mean it is, and you can use whatever term you want to, but the net on the ground is it appears the same that they're trying to physically force everybody all the two point whatever is millionaire still left and move them into the southern part of the script, which
is just like putting sardines in a can. And I don't know if you've seen any these pictures recently, but it's nothing but fields of tents and just lean tos and just i mean not even official tents, just tarps and whatever else that can get all in the rubble because there's nowhere to live, and that's not sustainable that you can't do that.
It's not even at this point of matters.
So much of making sure you get enough food aid you although that's obviously required to keep people from starving to death, but you can't sustain that can live that way. So either Israel's gonna have to relent and allow people back into other areas and spread them out and then rebuild, or somebody else is gonna have to take them to go out. Otherwise you'll probably literally start getting large scale die offs. And I just it's a horrible, horrible humanitarian situation.
I don't see a good military outcome or a political outcome for Israel. I think they kind of box themselves into a position, even if people are very much pro Israel, I mean, militarily speaking, this is not sustainable and it's not going to bring peace to Israel. And I don't know what in it Yaho government's gonna do.
Wow, boy, I wish we had better news. But you got to tell call him like you see him. Daniel Davis appreciate the time you spend my listeners to me every week. We'll do it again next Tuesday. Every Tuesday Daniel Davis Deep Dive and search for his podcast online. He's talking. He has some interesting and wonderful guests on his show. Daniel Davis Deep Dive. Great talking with my brother always a pleasure, Always my pleasure. Br Ryan see you next week, next Tuesday, eight forty Right now, five
KRC the talk station. This is fifty five KRC and iHeartRadio station Wood and let