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Chuck Ingramont fifty five K. See the talk station A twenty nine.
If you do have Kerri, see talk station it's Tuesday. It's that time of week A Deep Dive with Daniel Davis doing the Daniel Davis Deep Dive. You can find his podcast just search for Daniel Davis Deep Dive. Retired Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis, Welcome back to the fifty five Cassey Morning Show. I missed our conversation last week when I was on vacation.
Brother.
I know, man, I always go through a little bit of with draw symptoms when you take your vacation.
So I'm glad you're back in the office.
I'm glad to have you on the program. I really enjoy your analysis of well sadly war, and you know, I'm sorry I have to. I'll phrase this as I got a kick out of it. I just like it's one of those what would Jesus do kind of things? So Easter shows up and they have a thirty or thirty hour ceasefire, I guess because it's Easter, and then start killing each other the minute it's over with.
Isn't it. I mean, didn't they do that?
In World War One?
They had like a Christmas armistice and the guys came out of the trenches from both sides. They sat down, they talked converse, they had cigarettes together, and then they went back to the trenches and started killing each other again. It seems kind of barbaric and preposterous, doesn't it.
Well, yeah, that's that is a good analogy because that there were some similarities there, although frankly unlike the one in World War One, that this one was routinely violated left and right really throughout the whole lot of contact. So it was less of killing during the Easter holidays than it would otherwise have been.
But it wasn't a full seasfire, didn't lead to anything.
I guess that, you know, at least according to what Putin himself said, because he's the one who designated this, that it was just you know, for at least one holiday. He wanted his troops to get, you know, on both sides of the lines, to get some kind of respite, I guess. But yeah, like you said, it was pretty short lived, so I'm not really sure what was accomplished by it.
So where are we in this whole process? I get the feeling that, you know, Trump's just kind of washing his hands of the whole thing. Russia doesn't want to sit down to negotiate. Ukraine wants more than they can ever hope to get in their negotiations, and is Trump just going to turn the whole thing over to the NATO allies in the Western European countries to handle.
Now, this is actually a potentially very very crucial week, and one of the more crucial we've had in quite a long time, even since Trump has come into office. There are some really important meetings between the United States, Ukraine, and Europe in London tomorrow, and then there's gonna be some US and Russia meetings following that. And Trump put out on his true social last night that he thinks within the next three days that he thinks he can
have some kind of a deal wrapped up. I'm thinking it's more like the first version you said that the end result of all these conversations is going to be I'm washing my hands and moving on, because the sides are still so far far apart, even the US and the Western side are far apart. But then from where anybody in the West wants to go and where Russia wants to go are certainly not something you can bridge
in three days. For example, one of the things that the Ukraine side wants is to say, all right, we'll conceive this twenty percent of the territory where the line of contact is, but only I think they call it de facto, not djure, which they define as meaning will say, yes, you occupy this, but we will not publicly acknowledge that it's your territory, et cetera. Russia said, it is our territory. It's already in our constitution. It's not even up for debate,
so they would not agree to that. Then, of course you get into the bigger issues of you know, where will those lines be, because the Ukraine side wants them to be on the line of contact and the Russian side says, the minimum we'll even talk about is the administrative orders, and there's substantial portions of the southern three of those provinces that have would have to be withdrawn and evacuated by the Ukraine side.
I can't see him agreeing to any of that.
So if Trump is true that he wants to have this wrapped up in three days, then it's almost the.
Only way he can do that is to wash his hands and walk away.
So it seems I don't want to call it comical, but you go do you talk to facto and desure of course by law ergo the formal movement of the border to recognize this is now part of Russia as opposed to de facto, which is really what it was before, with the vast majority of the population in these regions already feeling more loyal to Russia than they did to Ukraine. So that situation existed before Russia invaded to sort of liberate, if I may use that word, these territories right.
Well, yeah, and then's that really kind of gets to the heart of why I think that really the only play that Trump can can have here is to say, all right, we gave you guys every opportunity we could, but we're walking because even with all the combat realities you and I talk about every week we get together that are irrevocably on the Russian side, even to this day,
the Western side still cannot come to recognize that. And they think that they can actually tell the Russian side where the line's gonna be, what the conditions are going to be, et cetera, when all those cards are on the Russian side.
And so I think that you're gonna get to the.
Point to where Trump is like with the reality the dajoure if you or the yeah, the joor if you want to get to that one. That they're irreconcilable, and so the only option is y'all figure it out, and that means y'all fight it out. And I think that's just the harsh truth of it, because they will not come to a recognition of combat reality.
Well, and we've had this conversation before. If it comes to that and we basically effectively pull the plug and say, hey, we're done, you know, you guys deal with it.
On your own.
Our NATO allies don't have the capacity to do that. I mean they I don't think the population itself is willing to go put itself on the line to fight for Ukrainian independence from Russia to try to liberate these Russian dominated regions in Ukraine.
I mean, do they have the will? That's one question.
But then the second component is that we've talked about before, do they have the military hardware to do it? And I get the impression that they do not. I mean, they're starting to rebuild their armies as we speak, but they're way behind the curve on that.
Yeah. I mean, let's start with the second part of that.
First, the capacity, without question, there is not because Russia has spent really the first say two and a half years, two plus years, retooling their industry, building up their armed forces, building up their capacity to do all these things that they need to do, reorienting their economy so that they can sustain this, and now that they are on a steady state to where they can maintain this force a half now about one point five million active army alone
two point something total active forces when you add in the air force, in the navy, and the industry can sustain this level of fighting for indefinitely, which grossly exceeds.
Anything the cumulative West.
In its entirety to include the United States can even come close to match.
And they can't.
And to your second point about the political will, it simply doesn't exist everybody.
There are many people.
Let me put it that in the West, ideally would like Russia to lose, It would like Ukraine to win, but if it costs them something, if they have to shed their blood, if they have to send their boys, it's zero percent.
Yeah, And it makes me think of something like Vietnam, a lot of resistance. So that why are we in this remote region in Asia, and why are we fighting for their population? It has nothing to do with us. We're not connected with them. It just it befuddled a lot of people. And I know there were a lot of people the big supporters of it, because that was back when we were fighting the Communist you know, the Red scourge. But it's amazing we ultimately become a trading
partner with Vietnam after all those years. Anyhow, the absurdity of war. Are we learning anything? I know my observation on this, considering the overwhelming amount of military might that Russia has, the overwhelming numbers relative to the soldiers that are on the ground, it has taken them a long time. I think Russia thought they just roll in and be
over in no time. Have we learned something from this about Russia's ability to wage war given the size of Ukraine relative to the size of the Russian army or is this providing us with valuable information?
Let me tell you something that's not entirely good or kind or optimistic.
But after World War Two.
We learned a great deal and our policy makers across the board in Western Yep recognized the reality of balance of power forces and what was and what wasn't possible, and our policies matched reality, and we got the best deal we could given the circumstances, and we kept that steady state peace for you know, during the entirety of the Cold War, and we didn't take actions that were
unnecessarily provocative. We were a show to a definite strength so that it would deter the other side from doing anything, and that kept the peace for a long time. We have forgotten those lessons, and now then, despite what we have observed, with well over a million people being killed and proving again the reality of the balance of power dynamics, we still have refused as a cohort in the West.
We've refused to acknowledge that, and we're still pretending it's otherwise, and that very often leads to bad policy decisions that can't be accomplished and don't lead to peace. I hope it doesn't come to that, and that's one of the reasons I'm hopeful that Trump's a willingness to do that may force feed these guys to do something that gets
the war off the table. And if it doesn't, if they act even more foolish, if without the United States, they could plunge themselves into a war that could go nuclear all too easily.
Oh jeez.
Well, we don't get to end on a happy note today, Daniel Davis. But got to speak it out loud to point out what reality is. I like and as we stare at this conflict, Daniel Davis, deep dive. Always a real pleasure having you in the fifty five KR see morning. Sha'll encourage my listeners to check out online. And I'm already looking forward to next Tuesday, me too, Thanks Brian se Then take care brother, it's coming up in eighty forty to fifty five care see the talk station. You know,
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