Fifty five kcit talk station. You know, it's that time, the illiterative segment of the fifty five Carscity Morning Show. It's called the Daniel Davis Deep Dive. You can find the retired lieutenant colonel out there on the web. Just search for Daniel Davis Deep Dive. Get his thoughtful analysis on a lot of things military related. Of course, today we're gonna talking about the latest on the Jimas Israel
situation as well as Ukraine. Daniel Davis, always a pleasure to have you on my program sir, Always a pleasure to be here. Brian, how are you. I'm doing fine. I'm just joking earlier every day people always ask, hey you doing, Brian is like, you know, half of me wants to say I'm great, you know, personally, Then the other half of me looks out in the world and goes, jeez, Louise,
I feel miserable. But it's usually about stuff I have nover, no control over, like the situation unfolding in the Middle East.
I'm right there with you, you know, you get it. I mean, you want to be able to changise the world.
You wake up feeling like you got this weight on your shoulders and come on, man, it's a weight that well maybe shouldn't be there, but you know, you have knowledge and skill sets in certain areas that force you into having to deal with the cold, painful realities of the world. And that's what we're doing here this morning.
Let's start with Hamas and israel I. See behind that reality of their fighting back and forth, Iran is also still threatening of some sort of what they call inevitable response. After they took out the Hamas leader Ismail Hanie back in July. They described this the Iranian Revolutionary Guard leaders said, this is going to be a painful and different attack than what you expect Israel, So they keep talking about a response. It didn't come as quickly as most people thought.
But behind the Hamas and the hu Thi's you have Iran.
Yeah, and look, I think that it's it is definitely inevitable because you just can't strike it Iran in their capital city on their inauguration weekend and think that not you know, something isn't going to be done in retaliation. The question is just going to be what, because as they're pointing out, or as you pointed out, rather you know, this wasn't the immediate retaliation reaction that many expected. They thought that it would come within days, and then they said, well,
maybe it'll be after this forty day morning period. I think that's even expired because that was the time frame for the Hazbulah attack against Israel a week or so ago, came after the fortieth day of morning, after one of the commanders was assassinated by Israel.
So we don't know what it's going to be.
But it's interesting that the phrasing us that it's going to be painful, but different than what you expect, which means it's probably not going to be another three hundred and fifty missile barrage like the one that came the first time after Israel destroyed the embassy compound in the Iranian embassy compound in Syria.
So it's unclear.
It could be something like assassination of a high value Israeli target. It could be attacking an Israeli embassy in some other countries, something that's not as defended. There's just a whole range of things that it could be. But the real the question's going to be then what happens, because there's in my view, no chance that Israel says, all right, well, that's fair, we did this. You did that tip for tat Whi's call it a day first.
I think it's certain that they would then, you know, go one more wrung up that escalation, and then we'll.
See what happens. Yeah, they'll use it as a pretext. And that's exactly where I was going with you, because if they get a strong response from Iran an assassination, maybe a huge attack, whatever the response is, they're going
to use that as a pretext. And I bet they're going to go in as hard as they possibly can with some of those bunker buster type munitions and try to eliminate the Iranian nuclear weapons sites that we all know where they exist, least intelligence sources I think have a firm idea where they're making these things.
Yeah, you know, we do.
But it's also the nuclear program, as distinct from a nuclear weapons program, is spread all over the place and in multiple places, and quite a few of them are like in the sides of mountains, et cetera. And it's not clear that even the best bunker busters are going to be able to take all that out. And look, if Israel does that, I mean, that's that's as much
a declaration of war as you can get. Yeah, and you know, and now then you've got the possibility of exploding this, you know, nearly a year long attack in Israel, you know, with guys of war et cetera, now exploding beyond the borders. And then then all the gloves may come off, with all of these run backed militia groups spattered throughout the region, both the Rack, Syria, Jordan, et cetera. Hezbola then could take its gloves off. And so far
it's it's held its powder. As you know, they've got reportedly over one hundred and fifty thousand rockets of various tops, which they've only used a small portion of so far.
So Israel has to be very careful.
They can't just go all in and say, ah, we got this opportunity, now we're going to go strack, because it's not clear that the United States is going to just say, yeah, we'll just go to war with you, even though some of our words have said that it's a different thing to literally plunge yourself into a war with Iran, given how bad and how long the one with Iraq took.
Yeah, and I suppose the Israeli forces are at some point going to become strained, much in the way the Ukrainian forces are strained. You know, they got the Houthis, they got Hamas. They're surrounded by enemies that are under constant attack and waging a war against a powerful country like Iran, even though comparatively speaking not as powerful as Israel,
but they have a standing military. They have access to weapons from other foes of Israel, including the Russians and the Chinese, so their supply chain isn't going to break down.
And listen, it's also it's not even a matter of the comparative strength between Israel and Iran, and Israel's way on the upper side of that, but you know it's geographically it's there's this massive distance between them. This is not lack of Russia Ukraine where you can just pop across the border one way or the other.
I mean this, and you have to cross countries to get there. And what are you going to do.
You can't like motor across Iraq right to get into it too there. Yeah, and even flying across is very difficult because of the distances involved without having some kind of refueling situation. And then again you're over foreign territory, and who knows whether that's going to be a loud or shut down or whatever.
So there are some real constraints on what Israel can do.
Yes, there is, and maybe that's a good thing after all, because we don't want a global war to break out.
Indeed, we don't.
Well let's dive on over by speaking of global wars potentially breaking out. It by all accounts, and you know, the fog of war, you and I talk about it all the time. But doesn't sound like the Ukrainian military is going to be able to hold its own for very much longer. From what I've read, they're having obvious problems, you know, with the maintaining numbers in their standing army. They're grabbing people off the streets and forcing them into
uniform that don't want to be there. My understanding is desertions are high, and yet here we find ourselves. What's your take on the current status?
Yeah, it's I mean, you just hit all the big points there that because Ukraine has lost so many people and no one has an official number, but plausible numbers are in the hundreds of thousands of killed and uh, you know, triple that number wounded. Uh.
It is a massive number.
And so they're the only way that they can just maintain what they have is to continue having a uh trough of new bodies to go in to fill up the uniforms that are blown up and killed in action, et cetera.
And they just don't have it. They don't have that many men.
And now then the people that especially the men that are left, are literally hiding in cellars, hiding out in the in the forests in different places because they're because they're sometimes picked up going to the grocery store, uh, you know, sometimes in uh uh.
Bars and that kind of thing. So they literally don't go anywhere.
And there are scores of videos every day practically on the Internet of people just being grabbed off the street, grabbed off their front porch uh in one I saw just a couple of days ago.
Uh. And then we find out that when those.
Guys get to the front, not surprisingly and this is according to CNN, not any kind of Russian disinformation. They had to report a couple of days ago that said, hey, when these they interviewed the commanders, there were Ukrainian commanders. They say, when these guys get there, they have almost no training and they're terrified. They run at the first side of contact, or they just flee and they they don't obey any orders if they survive. That was a
horrible quote the guy used. If they survive first contact, they are afraid and won't go back into battle the second time. You just can't fight a war like that. The numbers just won't work. So where are in terms of the Russian side of the equation? You know, part of me just keeps thinking, for whatever reason, that they just don't want to really go all in and just
end this with just massive forces. I don't know, militarily speaking, I'm not a strategist, but the comparative size of the militaries and the strength of Russia versus Ukraine, and it's just the two of them right now, I just kind of wonder, really kind of why it's taking Russia so long to get the job done. You would have thought that it would have been a rather quick conflict given the size of the army and the resources. It appears that Putin is very, very was risk averse, but he's
also a very patient and methodical in his money. And we've seen this throughout For example, when Russia was driven out of Kharkiv area in twenty twenty two. When they abandoned the Kirsoon area and left Cirstone city in the fall of twenty twenty two, they then said, okay, we spent a full year on defense, and so they withdrew from all those areas, built all these defensive lines, manned them. At the same time, they're building up their defense industrial base.
They're growing their base of troops by half a million, and so those things take time, and they were willing
to take the time. So they did all of that for twenty twenty three, and then in twenty twenty four they've been methodically moving forward to take the last of the defensive lines and put Krobsk is the last of the existing defensive lines from twenty fourteen, and by all my estimation is when they break through that piece right there, then you finally may see this big force because they've been basically building it for a year and a half now,
and there has been some evidence of even Belarus possibly joining in with this. They've moved a lot of troops to the front, I mean, to the border area there. Other Russian troops have moved closer to the border area. I think It's also instructive in this Kursk offensive that Russia has sealed it off, but they didn't send a bunch of forces to go and knock it out, even though they had them in the area, because it could be that they want to contain the Ukraine side.
They want them to keep sending.
Reserves into there so that they'll just be methodically destroyed and they won't be available elsewhere when those other troops move south into the border, and that's what I think could happen, possibly as early as it's fall.
And the Ukrainian troops moving into Russia. I just think, for whatever reason, I'm having ideas of like the Germans endeavoring to take over Moscow and getting frozen out in the middle of winter. I mean, there's a lot of myles between here and there, a lot of territory that would have to be held and covered at a lot of distance. And then, like you said, there are a lot of Russian forces somewhere out there that could start
defending themselves. In that readion, it's almost like they're just letting them wander around and waste their time.
They are and look what you got to take examination also of where the incursion took place in that course region, and it's of no strategic value to Russia. It's it's a bunch of small villages and hamlets. There are no big cities in the area that they could attack, and the Ukraine side simply doesn't have the offensive punch.
To make that a threat to Russia. All they could do is is.
Make an incursion in there and you know, a little penetration and then that's it.
That's now they're doing.
It's all they can do since the tenth day of this thing, now well into a month into it, to just maintain what they have, and you see, it's just methodical. The Kremlin actually out today said we are now starting an operation to slowly expel all those forces. So they're going to now increase the firepower. They've been satisfied to just hit them with long range weapons, artillery, drones, attack aviation, et cetera, glide bombs, and it's been just a horrific
casualty count. Now then they're saying they're going to actually start pushing them out as well, So we'll see in the next week or so.
How that works out. This has been another Daniel Davis deep Di I've always enjoyed. Daniel, look forward to next two with another edition and encourage my listeners. Just search for it online. Daniel Davis Deep Dive to get more of what we're talking about today. Best of health, my friend, always a pleasure, Brian Too eight forty two fifty five kr C DE talk station. Now I get to mention USA Insulation Premium Foams, the best insulation on the market.
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