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Good morning, and welcome to Breaking Points. I am not Sager and Jedty, at least not that I'm aware of, Crystal.
You can confirm it firmed that check correct, Not Soccer and Jeddy.
But he's often joined some weddings. He's a great wedding guest.
At that age where like apparently literally everyone he knows is getting married.
So he had two different weddings this weekend.
Within like thirty six hours.
Crazy logistics to pull it off. So anyway, godspeed to Sager. Hopefully the airline gods are blessing him as we speak. We have so much to get you in the show. I know I always say that, but it really is true.
Today.
We have so many guests and so many important stories as you guys probably already know Hassan Estralla dead in an Israeli airstrike. Treta Parsi is going to join us to break down what all of that means and the consequences may be. We've got the VP debate tomorrow. We're going to be live streaming here with Emily Ryan and soccer Shelby Talcott is going to join us to preview
what JD Vance's debate prep strategy has been. Specifically, our election analyst Logan Phillips is going to be here with a polling update to tell us what his model is saying about where the odds stand for November. Hurricane Helen caused just devastating damage, Biblical destruction they're describing it as throughout from the Florida Panhandle up through Appalachia. Also spawned
a lot of conspiracy theories. So we're going to look at the horror and what needs to be done there, but also take a look at some of the more deranged takes that we saw on of this hurricane. We also have a Cornell student who is going to join us who is set to be deported over his pro Palestinian activism. And Emily was on with as de Client over the New York Times, over with the fake news media.
How did that go?
It was fun.
We had a little conversation about Project twenty twenty five. So I think we have a clip of that and we can talk about it here.
Yeah, absolutely, all right.
So Hezela has now confirmed that their leader, now former leader, Hassan Nosraala, was in fact killed in Israeli airstrike near in Beirut. Let's go and put this up on the screen with some of the details from CNN. Israel and
HESBLA both confirmed that on Friday. Ryan actually did a fantastic breaking news segment with Mueen Rabani at a time when we weren't certain, but they did that segment as if because it looked very strongly like this was possible, that killing Israel, That killing by Israel of Nostralla marks a significant escalation, they say, in the conflict between Israel
and HESBLA, which has intensified in recent weeks. The same strike, in addition to taking out in Nosraula and quite a number of other individuals we don't have an exact death count yet, also took out a senior member of Iran's powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. So you know, to call
it a significant development is an incredible understatement. We have some of the images of the bombings that have been occurring, not just this particular bombing that took out Nosralla, but Israel has ramped up the bombing of southern Bay Route and southern Lebanon in general. We can put this up on the screen so you can see some of the images. This verse is actually a mom who was recording her child doing cute kid things and then looks out the
window and this is the scene of destruction. This is the aftermath of that bombing that killed Nostralla. The indications I've seen is that they use some of those two thousand pound bunker buster bombs based on this huge crater and footprint, based on these sorts of images that you can see.
This is VB.
Netanyahu in the US at the UN giving the go ahead for this strike, the government of Israel releasing this image, so obviously quite significant.
These are some of the Lebanese.
People who have been displaced now by this now new military offensive and escalation here by Israel. And these are some of the additional bombings. Because this is you know, continued past Friday. These are some of the bombings that have continued in Lebanon. And we also know that in addition to this, they have bombed, begun.
Bombing Yemen as well.
I'll speak to that in a moment, but only just you know, to get your reaction here off the top. What do you see as the significance of this and where things go from here?
Well, and obviously, what Israel wants to do is create a buffer zone between northern Israel and southern Lebanon. They say, reports say at least that they're hoping that it would be twenty miles something like that, And so what you would need to do in order to achieve that is going to look like a lot more of what.
We're seeing on the screen right now.
And they want to has both started obviously bombing on October eighth, and that's where I think it's like sixty thousand in Israelis who are in northern Israel have been living elsewhere since. And so what Israel wants to do is bring that everyone who's been displaced back to northern Israel. And in order to do that, they're trying to create like a twenty mile buffer zone. So again, it's just we're going to see a lot more of this to come. There's no other way to put it.
Let's put a four, guys, let's skip ahead to a four and put this up on the screen. This is something that in Israeli official said to NBC. They said, we decided to kill Nsuala after concluding he will not agree to any solution that is not tied to ending
the war in Gaza. And I think that, first of all, it's an extraordinary statement and you know, reveals a lot that isn't exactly hidden about the Israeli government mentality, the reason that Hasbillah has been engaged in this you can't even really call it tit for tat because it's continued to be, you know, quite one sided in terms of the Israeli fire, Israeli's firing farm more rockets. But this tit for tat exchange with Israel was all tied to
Israel's onslaught in Gaza. And so you know, this statement is basically an admission that Hesla was willing to come to terms, and we saw that when there was a temporary ceasefire, has stopped firing rockets, and they were willing to do that, but only if it was tied to an end to the assault on Gaza, and since they were, you know, unwilling to bend on that standard. In Ustrala in particular was unwilling to bend on that standard. This Israeli official saying we thought we had to take him out.
It reminds me of the decision also Emily to assassinate Ismail Hania, who was the head of HAMAS and the chief negotiator who actually, in the context of HAMAS was much more open to this sort of you know, negotiated ceasefire to end the Israelian slot in that territory in Gaza.
And so when you assassinate him, which happened in Tehran, which was all an extraordity of provocation towards I Ran, that means that now the top negotiator for Hamas is Yeah, yeah, son, it'spin Wah, who is far more hawkish, who's seen as being the mastermind behind the October seventh attacks. You obviously won't come as any surprise to those who are watching the show.
It's been quite clear for a while that VB.
Natanyahu is not interested in a permanent ceasefire, does not see that as a goal and has systematically gone about trying to make sure that there is no possibility of that lasting ceasefire on the table.
And then, you know, the other.
Thing to say about this, quite obviously, is now you have another provocation towards Iran. There have been multiple efforts to try to draw them in more broadly to the conflict, and you have an incredibly weak US government that while they'll say, oh, we think only diplomacy is the answer, at the same time, you know they back up Israel no matter what they do, even at a cost of many civilian lives.
Here.
Very different for example, if you want to compare to the very targeted operation that we used to kill Osama bin La, very different approach here in terms of the civilian civilian deaths and civilian infrastructure that has been destroyed
already in this exchange. And so it puts US, also because of our week leadership, on the brink of a terrifying escalation, terrifying broader war, and terrifying involvement of US soldiers more directly, especially as we already have forty thousand soldiers at least in the region.
The big question also, obviously is for what is accomplished here, and there has been a lot of sort of hawkish people over the last couple of days posting these fairly stunning images of everyone in the Hesbaalah chain of command who has been taken out by Israel.
Recently, Jared Kushner tweeted.
Something like Israel has killed more of people, more of the people on America's most wanted list in the last two days than America has in twenty years, and that's been a huge line. What's interesting, though, is that reports about the reconstitution of Hamas, for example, just since in Jabal Yeah and other places in Israel, just since some of the intense bombing late last year and early this year, you didn't have to wonder. I mean, we're not going to be talking about the hooties.
We're going to be talking about what comes out of all of this.
People in Hesbola right now are recognizing Estralla as a quote sacred martyr. This doesn't This may have a really powerful effect on the chain of command, but we don't know how significantly this actually wipes out the power of Hesbola. How big of a set back this actually is for them.
Yeah, there seems to have been I think Ryan spoke and you spoke about this previously. You know, Iran, after Ismail honey Out was assassinated in their capital on the eve of their presence inauguration, there was this expectation that Iran will respond, right because I mean, you could imagine if it was US and some you know, foreign dignitary was in our capital and that's the way they see him, you know, and he was assassinated under our nose before
Joe Biden was inaugurator, so Donald Trump was inaugurator. Yeah, you can imagine how we would respond, and they didn't.
Because they had this sense of.
What Israel wants, what our adversary wants us to do, is to respond in an aggressive manner. And I think it's been you know, a lot the same with hesbla of they recognize that the game BBI was playing was to try to draw them in to a massive escalation, and so the sense was like, why give our adversaries
what they want. But at this point you're at a position where it's like Israel is not gonna They're not gonna stop, So you either just sort of like you know, lay down and accept their dominance, or you escalate on your own, you know, behalf or respond in some way that leads further up that chain of escalation. And that's
kind of where we set right now. I saw a thread from Arnaul Bertrand, who we've had on the show before, that I thought was really interesting and something for everybody to contemplate, like take out if you can, of your mind who these specific plays are, and just think about the moment that we sit at right now in global history, which is we're at a pivot point where the post World War two international order, led by the soul superpower of the US is either dead or dying. And we're
burthing right now. What we're doing, what we're engaged in, what we're allowing, what we're seeing, what's being accepted, those are the things that are going to set the terms of this next era. So right now, the terms of the next era looks like, you know, indiscriminately bombing hospitals, schools, refugee camps, taking out a thousand civilians to assassinate one adversary. Those are the sorts of things right now. Those are the precedents that are being set for what this new
era could look like. It also looks like in an era where you know, you can just decide, Okay, I want a buffer zone in Lebanon, so I'm just going to take it. Right, i want a buffer zone in Gaza, so I'm just going to take it. Or you could look at the Russian you know, invasion of Ukraine.
They just wanted to take.
It like that.
Those are the sort of precedents that are being laid down right now that have broader reach. And that's not to undermine like the specifics for the horror for the human beings who are involved right now, but have broader reach even than just this conflict in this moment. And you know, that's part of why a lot of times people ask like, oh, well, why do you care so much about this one thing? I think his threat helped to explain in a way I haven't been able to fully.
Elucidate why it feels like this is such a pivot.
Point and why it matters so much when you do have the world sort of declining superpower tacitly agreeing and then affirmatively shipping the arms to create a new order in which it's not like we have fully lived up to the World War II commitments of civilians being off limits and you know, territorial integrity, et cetera. But where those things are completely swept away and it's just the sort of law of the jungle might mix right, you can do whatever the hell you want as long as.
You've got the guns and the weapons to accomplish it.
I actually think that's what's fascinating about this entire post October seventh conflict. And it was a huge through line of the pre October seventh conflict as well. But it's the countries that were the thought leaders in the post World War two order, the people who were It's always been the case, I mean since the last one hundred years, the people who were saying what we're going to do now is different. We are not going to have more dresdens. We are not going to have more We are going
to protect civilians. And the countries who have wielded international law as a sort of realist tool, as a nationalist tool, as a tool of power, rather than as a sort of moral standard. You have this like unevenness in countries like the United States, where a lot of people in public polling look at what's happened since October seventh and are like really disgusted by what Hamas did, and they're really disgusted by the Israeli response. Yeah, people want to
live up to something better. It's just the government of the United States will invoke international law when it's putin and then sort of dance around it and say, well, it's not really legitimate in this case when it's in Israel and it's this, it's Israel challenges the United States fundamentally to whether our leaders actually believe what they wield as a tool against other countries.
Yeah.
I mean even just the you know, the booby trapping of walkie talkies and pagers right and causing them to this is this is an infiltration of the civilian supply chain. And not only were there some civilians who were among those who had these booby trapped devices, but it's definitionally indiscriminate when you cause these things to explode when people are at the market at home with their kids holding it. And this was not just like accepted, This was celebrated,
and I thought it. I found it quite no worthy that Leon Pinetto's former director of the CIA, etcetera, etcetera, and not normally someone I make common cause with, sounded an alarm about that. And said, effectively, we're opening Pandora's box here, and by any definition, this is terrorism. And so again, those are the sorts of precedents that are
being set right now. As this wasn't just accepted, this was celebrated by effectively the entire US political elite, whether it be Democrats or Republicans, with a just a small handful of much derided exceptions. So you know, we are authoring right now. We're authoring the world that we're all going to have to live in. And that's that's part of why, you know, I find what's happening so troubling and so horrifying. I want to go back to the very latest. I saw a headline this morning that we're
all preparing. So far these have all been air strikes. There's an expectation in Israel has announced that they're likely to go forward with a full ground invasion in Lebanon. I saw this morning that they had special operations teams going sort of like a reconnaissance intelligence gathering missions to lay the groundwork for that very likely ground invasion. We also, as I mentioned before, are seeing now Israel striking sites in Yemen as well. We can put a three up
on the screen. The latest reporting about this, Israel's military say they launched a series of air raids on Hoo. They targets in Yemen, further hiding fears of wider regional conflict. I would say we're already at that further regional conflict. Military said dozens of aircraft, including fighter jets, attack power plants and seaport facilities at the ras Issa and Hodeeda ports.
The attack killed at least four people, one port worker and three electric engineers, according to the local TV, citing health authorities. Ryan actually indicated how data I didn't realize this is one of the key ports that's been used for humanitarian aid into Yemen. Yemen, of course suffering brutally under a blockade and a famine that was devastating to the population there in Israel's also right now blockading Lebanon in certain key ways and seizing and Gaza in the
West Bank. I pulled this clip from Al Jazier just explaining the importance of these particular targets.
Let's go ahead and take a listen.
Help us understand the significance of Hodada. This is a this is really a key entry point for humanitarian aid to a country that has been suffering from malnutrition starvation. The United Nations has warned a famine in several areas. What does it mean for Hadada to be bombed?
I believe this is the main goal of the Israeli regime is to put a pressure on the many people. Board, as you say, is one of the most economic or economic city for Yemen. And to target dot Board it means that Israeli want or trying to close it and
as well target in those power stations. I this means it will effect only the many civilians because Israeli they know that they cannot actually target the military installation or actually stop or preventing Yemeny from targeting Israel because they know that Saudi for example, they have conducted more than two hundred and fifty thousand a strike. They couldn't stop the Many army and as well hundreds of attack by the United States and the UK in the last several months.
They could not to stop.
That's why I believe they will continue targeting civilian infrastructure that effect actually all Yemeni is. But as well, I want to mention that Muhammad abd Salam, the spoke person of Antsaru Lah also known the He said that those attack actually will not stop or prevent or obstruct Yemeny from attacking design the state of Israel, or from Kiebin or continuing to support the bioble of Libanon and as well the biople of Parast.
So for more on this, we've got doctor Treue to Parsi standing by to help us understand where things go from here.
So let's go and get to that.
Joining us now to talk more about the American political response and the global political response to the latest out in Middle East is doctor Tree to Parsi with the Quincy Institute.
Always great to see, sir.
Likewise, so the response that we've gotten from the Biden administration is to the killing of Nostraula and the escalation with regard to Israel and Lebanon is incredibly predictable. We've seen this many times before. We can put this up on the screen A seven. Biden says he's very upset. Biden told Confidence Confidence in New York this week he was livid at Nannaho did not believe the Israeli leader wanted to reach peace.
Oh really, you don't.
He was frustrated about how often Nanyahoo had humiliated, blinkoln and the President himself. I mean, what can we even say about these reports at this point, doctor Parci.
I don't think we've ever seen a strategy of being politically pathetic being seen as a winning political strategy in an election season. But that seems to exactly you what
the administration is doing. Bottom line is Biden has not been trying to stop this because while he says that he's trying to stop it, while he says that he wants to avoid an escalation, he has been providing Israel with the weapons, with the money, with the political protection, with the diplomatic protection to be able to do exactly what Biden says that he does not want to see
Israel doing. So you can't really claim that you're trying to prevent someone from doing something while you are simultaneously providing him or her with the means to do it. And at this point, the credibility of the United States is you know, it shatters because after having said that they've been working night and day, around the clock to secure a ceasefire and have absolutely nothing to show for it except a couple of weeks about how frustrated they are.
It is the Biden administration itself that has revealed its weakness.
Well, let's talk about you were in New York last week as people from all over the world are gathering for the United Nations General Assembly, and Biden's pasture on this doesn't just obviously affect him domestically facts the United States diplomatically, geopolitically. So what were you able to pick up on, even from just what you've seen over the last few days, about how Biden's handling of Netanyahu ordering the strike from his hotel room at in New York
City when names there for the UN General Assembly? How has that do you think affected the United States? And just in the last few days.
I think one of the things there were many important things that we're seeing at the UN in the last couple of days. One is the degree to which Israel is completely isolated outside of the West, but also within the European Union itself, in which numerous European leaders came
out with very very strong statements. Now, I know, of course, the strong statements is not necessarily what changes the course of history, but it is important to note that this isolation is the outcome of Israel's own actions and it's complete disregard for international law. So yes, Israel has won numerous military victories in the past, it has nevertheless led to this situation with October seventh, in which Israel, according
to itself, cannot live in peace with its neighbors. So just winning military victories clearly is not the pathway alone to be able to reach a piece and security for the long term for Israel. But that lesson seems to
have been completely lost. And the other thing I think that is really crucial is to see the moral plunge on the Western side, because take a look at how the United States reacted under the Bush Junior administration when the Israelis assassinated Shechef Yasin, who was the former head of Hamas in two thousand and four. Seven people were killed, civilians were killed in that strike, and the United States at the time heavily criticized and even condemned the Israeli strike.
Today you have a situation in which in Australia is killed with several hundred others alongside him, civilians, and there is not a word about that coming from the Biden newittration. The Bush Junior administration seems to have a stronger moral fiber in this sense than what the BIDE administration does.
This is noted on the international team because simultaneously while this is taking place, the BID demonstration is talking a big game about the rules based international order, talking about the importance of defending Ukraine, because otherwise, what good is
international law if superpowers can break them? So that the hypocrisy, the double standards are just so blatant, it was a very depressed atmosphere at the UN because when the United States behaves like this, with this level of hypocrisy, with this level of double standards, it paves the way for everyone else to do so as well, and that will bring about a much more anarchic and chaotic situation internationally than we have seen in the past.
What do you think are the likely possible outcomes next? Where does the world go from here? What do you see as the most likely scenarios?
Well, I think that in the immediate term is of course be determined with what Israel decides to do. In terms of a land invasion of Lebanon that seems extremely likely. Israelis believe that they have Hazbolah in a very dire situation, which is true, and instead of allowing Hisbola the time to regroup, rebalance itself. Israel feels that it needs to
go in right now. The problem, of course, is that if Israel does this, it will very likely at some point lead to situation in which the Iranians will conclude that Israel is not going to stop at Israel in Lebanon. It will continue, it will go on all the way to try to rebalance the situation in the region by
also significantly degrading Iran. If the Iranian has come to that conclusion, then the rational response from their standpoint likely will be to act sooner rather than later, and then we will have the very large regional war that Biden claims that he he's been trying to prevent for the last eleven months.
You know, we heard, obviously Natanyahu talk about how the goal of the post October seventh conflict would be to eliminate Hamas, and as you just mentioned, this has clearly been a significant blow to Hesbola just in the last couple of weeks.
How significant has it.
Been, because I think there's still an open question about how significant, how significantly Hamas has been damaged of the course of the last year. Krystal and I were talking earlier about reconstitution of Hamas and areas like Chipalia. What do you make of how significant how significant this is to Hesbola in the near term and in the long term.
I think in some ways the blow to Hezbela may actually have been worse than the blow to Hamas because of the fact that Israelis managed to crack the communications system of Hezebola. That makes it much more difficult for them to be able to regroup. They also clearly know that there are plenty of Israeli intelligence assets inside of Hisbela itself, They've not been able to identify them or roote them out. That also makes it very difficult for
them to be able to regroup. So that is a blow that Hezbola has suffered that is not a military blow. It's an intelligence blow that is not necessarily the same as Hamas has suffered. At the end of the day, sinwar is still there after eleven months, and the Hamas operatives have been using non electronic communications systems for quite some time, precisely because of the awareness of how dangerous it would be for them. It Israell managed to crack it.
Having said that, I do also want to say another thing, there's stories going out there about how this was a major intelligence school for Israel and this is why they managed to get Hisboela. The hesbela leader, without a doubt is well has for some significant intelligence cool including the Pager bombings. What is not being said, however, is that they actually already had two or three opportunities to take out an Ustralla back in two thousand and six and
they failed. They bomb but he survived. The difference this time around is that they dropped eighty five bombs two thousand pound bombs. It is not an improved communications or intelligence operation. They knew in the past where he was, but they were not given the leadway the caste blanche from the United States to drop eighty five two thousand pound bombs on a residential neighborhood to kill everyone there, including Australia.
That's the difference, Doctor Parcy, I also wanted to ask you about the treatment of the American citizens who are
in the region. We can put a six up on the screen so you know quickly after October seventh, the State Department began booking charter flights for Americans who wanted to leave Israel and that contrasts quite significantly with the treatment here where the State Department has said, Hey, if you want to leave Lebanon, where you might get bombed with you know us supplied two thousand pound bunk or buster bombs, book, you're on flight and good luck. And
obviously many of these flights are being canceled. They cost thousands and thousands of dollars, etc. So just an extraordinary discrepancy between our treatment of our own citizens based on whether they are in Israel versus in Lebanon.
Absolutely, and this is coming out a time in which the Harris campaign knows very well that it needs to do some outreach, build some bridges to the Arab and Muslim communities, and it seems, at least in the last couple of weeks, but they have done absolutely nothing, And in fact, even the most simplest of things making sure that American citizens are finding a way to get out of a war zone seems to be a bridge too far for them to do, despite the very crucial impact
they could have on the elections. This is putting us truly at a loss. I was speaking to a diplomat from a South American country last night who also has a large number of citizens in Lebanon, and they're doing everything they can right now to make sure that all of them can get out safely. And they were stunned as well to see how little is done on the American side, even though the American number of citizens in Lebanon, I think dwarf staff of this South American country.
And who's running that Biden administration policy, I think that's always a question worth asking as we are in this ongoing constitutional crisis where the president himself appears to be incapable of fully managing the jobs the.
Job, So is that the reason?
I think that's relevant because it speaks to what could happen in a potential Harris administration. So do you have thoughts on that, doctor Parson?
And just how I wish I had a Yeah, I wish I had a good answer to you on that question. It has been increasingly mysterious over the last couple of months, I would say, particularly given some of the incomprehensible decisions, and it goes back all the way to what we saw. For instance, in December two thousand and twenty three, on the two month anniversary of October seventh, the White House issue a statement only mentioning the Israeli victims, no word at all about the more than at the time about
twenty thousand Palestinians who had been killed. How is it even possible to make an oversight of that kind, particularly mindful of the fact that only weeks earlier the administration was doing outreach to the Arab and Muslim communities because of the uncommitted vote. I actually gotten a lot of a momentum, and they recognized that they needed to do something about it, and then they issue a statement luge like that. So this is just continuous and it's just intensifying the mystery.
Yeah, I saw a clet this morning where Joe Biden was asked a reporter yelled to a question about Israel strikes in Yemen, and he seemed to misunderstand and think they were talking about literal labor strikes and started talking about collective bargaining agreements, which, listen, you know, anyone can miss.
Here a question, right, but.
Speaks to some deeper concerns we have about his capabilities and his ability to even understand what's happening in the region, let alone what the broader implications are for American interests at this point. Thank you so much for joining us this morning. It's always so great to hear what you have to say in your analysis of where we go from here.
So thank you so much, Thank you so much for having me our pleasure.
All right, guys, As mentioned before, the Vice presdential debate is tomorrow night.
We are going to be live streaming. Very excited about that.
Also as a reminder, we got a little discount for you guys through election and we put this up on the screen fifteen dollars off, so it's basically like you get from now to election day free and the code is BP twenty twenty four, So avail yourself of that if you can. Also a reminder, we are thirty five days until the election, which makes me feel a little
stick to my stomach, I'm being honest. Has gone very very quickly, so to preview the VP debate and all of the things that are going on, we are happy to be joined in studio this morning by Shelby Talcott.
She is a reporter for some of four. Great to see you, Shelby, welcome back, Thanks for having me.
Yeah, of course, So I guess what do you think are the expectations for this debate. Jadvan's a little better known than Tim Walls. Tim Wall's a little bit lesser known. You know, certainly Donald Trump is probably the main character as always in terms of this presidential context. So what do you think are the expectations for this debate going in?
I go back and forth on how important this presidential debate is, and part of me thinks it could be more important than a normal presidential debate just because it is potentially the last debate of the entire campaign, right, And also I think there's an argument to be made that could be particularly important for Donald Trump's campaign because of how the last debate went for him, But for Tim Walls, is it's really important as well because he's a lesser known figure, right, So I just I think
that overall it is a more important debate than normal vice presidential debates. Both of the campaigns are sort of doing their normal expectation settings. We had a report over the weekend noting that Tim Walls was really nervous going into this presidential debate.
Now, how much of.
That is actual nerves versus they're trying to set the expectations pretty low? Because remember Tim Walls was the candidate who when he was being interviewed by Kamala Harris told her, Hey, I'm not really that good at debates, and so it'll be really interesting to see, I think, in particular, how he performs, because we've seen a lot less of him.
Yeah, when we can put B three up on the screen, that's for what we were talking about. This is an NPR look at how much VP debates actually matter. So I want to get your take on that, Shelby as well. How the campaigns, and let's particularly ask about the Vance campaign are anticipating what this could do to the shape
of the race. How are they approaching that question? And I'll add to that through this lens of the weirdness subplot to the entire election, because that's been basically the fundamental kind of difference that Tim Walls is trying to produce between himself in JD.
Vance. That guy's weird and that's something.
That Jade Vance has battled ever since he was named the candidate. So on the Vance camp, where you've been talking to sources, what are they thinking about in terms of how that contrast may come out?
Yeah, this is JD.
Vance, to be clear, has done a lot of interviews and press avails. I think as of a week or two ago, he had done one hundred and fifteen since becoming the vice presidential nominee. So there's an argument to be made that he is already pretty well known. He's been on adversarial networks, he's been on the friendly networks, so that has sort of helped his campaign in combating that weird image. But this is sort of the first time we're going to see them go one on one.
So it is a really big opportunity for the Vance campaign to show or to push back on that narrative that he is weird, right, and that's something that I think we're.
Going to see them try to do.
At the same time, when you talk to Donald Trump campaign, they historically have not put too much stake in the vice presidential option. So I remember talking to his campaign several months ago before really the vice presidential talk was really brewing, and the big narrative that they felt was it's not that important. The vice presidential pick doesn't make a huge difference. Donald Trump really feels like if people are going to vote for him, they're going to vote
for him. They're not going to vote for him based on who his vice presidential pick is so in that nature. I think the campaign is sort of doesn't think it's going to make a huge deff.
They're relaxed about it.
I mean he even said that himself at that National Association for Black Journalists event. It was like, eh, VP, they're telling me that doesn't matter anyway. Yeah, So he's even said it publicly. So we know Donald Trump doesn't really do traditional debate prep. He likes to sit in a room have people sort of throw questions. Not that he doesn't prepare, he just doesn't do it in quite
the traditional way. Kamala Harris did a very traditional bait prep like hold herself up in a hotel, had someone playing the part of Trump, you know, went through that rigorous process. I know Tim Walls has Pete Bootagic is playing jd Vance, which I actually think is kind of a good choice to play that role. I could see him channeling that pretty well. How is jd Vance going about preparing for this debate?
Jd Vance is different than Donald Trump, So he's sort of doing a mix of traditional debate prep while still going out on the campaign trail pretty aggressively over the past few weeks. So he is going to do a full mock debate trial in Tom Emmer, the Republican from Minnesota, has been playing Tim Walls. He's doing murder boards, which is sort of sessions who Yes, the murder boards is
not show, it is. There's sessions where essentially they're focused on some of those vulnerabilities, which of course include the fact that he has said several things on the campaign trail that Donald Trump himself hasn't hasn't endorsed in terms of policies. It includes obviously, I'm sure the cats and dogs rhetoric that we have heard from jd Vance. So those are the sessions where they sort of focus in
on those vulnerabilities. But at the same time, when I talked to his campaign, they've said, well, he's done so many interviews that were less concerned about those kinds of questions and more concerned about how to combat who Tim Walls is and how he's going to come up on the debate stage.
Yeah, I mean that does make some sense because listen, Jade Vance has been out there taking them questions and having his bar and I'm pretty shocked by how much the Hairris campaign has buried Tim Walls, who of all these candidates has the highest favorability rating, got the job primarily because he nailed it in these cable news interviews, and then they just have completely buried him, I guess out of fear that he would overshadow Kamala Harris, who
is sort of famously uncomfortable in interview settings and doing very very little in terms of media.
Yeah, and I think that's something that I think that maybe is a mistake we're going to see on the debate stage. Yeah, because when I talk to both of the campaigns, particularly you know, when I talked to Donald Trump's team, when I talked to Jade Vance's team, when I talked to Kamala Harris's team, that everybody agrees that reps. It's just like in sports, the more you do something, the better you are and the more you're comfortable about it.
So you have JD.
Vance, who has done over one hundred press avails and interviews, and then you have Tim Walls, who is I'm pretty sure he's done less than ten. And so that alone could be could be interesting to see because you know, is it a situation where Tim Walls is normally good in an interview aspect but just hasn't had the reps recently, and so he's just feeling more nervous.
Yeah, that's entirely possible. I possible.
Now, how are these campaigns preparing for the potential of fact checks?
We have this tear sheet before This.
Is CBS News saying actually, it's going to approach the debate more like CNN approached the first Trump Biden debate, which is allowing the candidates to fact check each other, but not interjecting like David Muhir did, sort of notorious at this point in the last presidential debate. So what are they thinking in terms of those moments? Because Vance has one of Vance's strengths is seen as actually his performance when he goes on with like Dana Bash and the CNN a hostile CNN interview.
But if there's no.
Sort of that was almost like a cope after the last debate. There were some legitimate complaints about there were some legitimate complaints about the moderation, but it was the big talking point coming out of the debate. Yeah, so if that's not there, almost as a foil, what are they thinking in terms of that?
I think Tim Wallas's campaign wants to focus more on Donald Trump's policy, So despite this being a vice presidential debate, he's going to be really honing in on the Donald Trump policy aspect of it. When you talk to jd Vance's team again, they go back to the fact that he has done so many of these interviews, and they sound pretty confident that he's going to be able to sort of push back on and sort of self fact check despite the fact that the moderators might not.
He's good in those moments.
I think he's had the p he's been with Dana Bash, he's been on MSNBC, and so they're less concerned and have sort of been prepping a little bit less on that side of things, just because he's done it so.
Much over the past few months.
How do you think he handles abortion, because this was one of the big missteps. He gets asked, predictably in a Sunday News show interview about whether Donald Trump would veto a national abortion ban, and sort of under pressure,
he's like, yeah, I think he would. And then Trump gets asked about it in the debate and he's like, well, Jad said that, but to be honest, we hadn't talked about it, so sort of indicating like, no, I wouldn't veto that as far as I know, this tension of what the campaign's actual position is remains unresolved.
So how does JD.
Man's handle situation like that, where you know, it's kind of unclear what exactly he's supposed to be repping for his boss?
Yeah, I think we got a preview of how he's going to handle those kinds of questions. A few weeks later, he was asked on Meet the Press about that moment on the debate stage from Donald Trump, and he said, well, I've learned my lesson about getting ahead of Donald Trump, so I do anticipate if there's a question to that effect, that's going to be.
Learned my lesson.
But at the same time, during that same interview, he also seemed to get ahead of Donald Trump on on health insurance. I started talking about how Donald Trump's plan includes separating people.
Into high risk pools, and I asked.
The campaign if that was their policy, and they declined to directly answer whether that was their policy. So I think the problem the risk of that JD. Vance has on Tuesday Night is that historically, you know, when I talk to people on the Hill who have covered him, he likes chatting he's a little bit nerdy. He likes chatting about policy, he likes to riff off of policy.
And I don't know if it's he doesn't understand that his words are hold more meaning now, or if these are truly Donald Trump's policy plans and he just hasn't.
Rolled them out yet.
But there's a risk I think that he gets too by down in policy and we end up hearing more of these situations where jd. Vance previews a policy that Donald Trump is.
Not yet endorsed.
At the end of the day, it doesn't really matter though, because I mean it's not like I don't get the sense Trump is like mad at him for that stuff. No, And unfortunately, in a lot of ways we're living with this is like a post policy type of campaign. So the specifics of donal I mean, Donald Trump got away at the debate with saying like, oh, I've got a concept of a plan on health healthcare, which how many years do we spend litigating the in and ounce of healthcare?
And so even if jd.
Vance is just like make it up on the fly what Donald Trump's policy is, because even Donald Trump doesn't know what Donald Trump's policy is, at the end of the day.
Sadly, I'm not sure it really matters.
Yeah, I do think overall, on both sides of the spectrum, this is a very policy like presidential campaign and Donald Trump, to be clear, despite jd Vance getting ahead of him on some of these things, he really likes Jadie Vance. He sees him on TV, he sees him go on these adversarial networks. He likes his personality, he likes how he pushes back.
His beard apparently.
And so that's the ultimate thing is if Donald Trump doesn't care that jd Vance potentially gets ahead of him on things, it doesn't really matter.
Well, so can we just do my last question for you, Shelby is a vibe check, Like you're talking to people in these circles VP debate. As we just talked about thirty five days left until the election, there was just a near assassination attempt a couple of weeks ago. So in the Vance camp at least, what the morale. How are the vibes.
I think the vibes are pretty good from jd Vance's camp. Now, you know, when I talk to people on the campaign, whether it's jd Vance's team or Donald Trump's team, which is essentially one and the same at this point, there are certainly nerves in terms of depending on who you ask on how they're doing, they'll give different answers. Some people say it's fifty to fifty. Some people are convinced
Donald Trump is going to win. Some people are really frustrated about the dynamics of the campaign overall.
But JD.
Vance's team is sort of full ahead. They're pretty focused. They're pretty confident in him as a vice presidential candidate, and they know that he goes out there and he can do these interviews and he performs pretty well. He's certainly had some hiccups right the weeks of dog and cat rhetoric and comments was not something they wanted to deal with, but they wanted.
To deal with it.
Donald Trump didn't seem afraid of dealing with that, since he's the one who blew it up nationally on the debate stage self.
Because they're advisors, his team sort of has quietly said, you know, well, I don't know why we're talking about this, but at the end of the day, I think there's a lot of confidence internally in JD. Vance's policy experience, and he is somebody who prepares a lot, and so I feel like they're feeling more confident than some of Donald Trump's advisors were for his presidential debate.
How do they explain how unpopular he is if they're happy with him, because and then you know, also in the converse, like publicans really hate two Walls, they think he's such a disaster. He's the most popular guy in the ticket, So what is their understanding of that?
I think they The.
Argument I've heard from a few folks has been a, well, Tim Walls hasn't been out there, so Americans just don't really know him. So he's sort of been sheltered in this cocoon that jd. Vance hasn't because Jadie Vance has gone out and taken the tough questions, YadA, YadA, YadA. But I think the other argument is I think they just don't really care necessarily because they.
Want him to be the attack dog they want them. They don't mind him being a bit of a villain.
They want him to be the attack dog.
They don't mind that he's seen as the bad guy. And that's again why I think this vice presidential could potentially be important for him, because if people come out and see him in a different light than what the Kamala Harris campaign has been putting out.
It could help him.
I'm not super surprised that the vibes are good in the vans campus, so I feel like, if anything, they're kind of rubbing their hands together with Tim Walls, expecting that JD will be able to actually have someone he can start talking to about like the late term abortions. He can flip that question going to they see it this way transgender issues. They can flip the question on him because Tim Walls has that and Jadvance That's how Jada Vanscer sees his strength on the campaign trills being
able to like flip the media narrative. So I bet they're actually like kind of looking to lean into that.
Yeah.
We have heard less expectation settings from Jade Vance's team compared to Tim Walls's team, and I think that's notable because typically in a presidential debate, both of the campaigns are really doing expectation setting. I mean, Donald Trump historically likes to set the bar extremely low for his opponents,
but his advisors will sort of expectation set for him. Yeah, but we're not really hearing as much of the expectation setting from Vance's team, and I think that's because they're pretty confident they know what jd Vance is good at, and a lot of what Jada Vance is naturally good at is things that he's going to.
Have to do on the debate.
He's not going to just crumble, There's no doubt about it. Now, whether people like him at the end of it, I think is a very different question. Yeah, but you're not going to, you know, catch him off guard where he's just stuttering and stumbling and doesn't know what to do. You're not going to bait him in the really easy way that they did with Donald Trump, which was just embarrassing at the end of the day. So I think that makes a lot of sense. Shelby, thank you. It's
so great to have insights from you. We appreciate you coming in.
Thanks for having me. Yeah, our pleasure. All right.
So, heading into that vice presidential debate, we didn't wanted to do a quick check on where the polls stand and who's at what chances in terms of November and the ultimate result here. So we are turning once again to Logan Phillips of a race to the White House.
Great to Caesar, great to see you too.
So we got some interesting news last week about this one congressional district in Nebraska that we covered here, and this is significant because it counts for one electoral vote. There was a push to make Nebraska winner take all like most states are. That push failed, so now they's still going to be allocating electoral College votes by district. And we got a couple of relatively high quality polls in about how that district is leaning. We can put c two up on the screen here and get us sense.
This is the CNN poll. It shows Harris plus eleven in Nebraska's second congressional district. Biden won it by just six in twenty twenty. Aaron Blake of Pines helps explain why the Trump campaign was so keen to change down Nebraska awards its electoral votes. What do you make there was another poll that showed, you know, a similarly significant margin for Harris in this congressional district. Logan, what do you make of where things stand there right now and why it matters?
Yeah? I fully buy it.
I mean, we had another poll that was plus nine, another one that was plus fifteen, and these are three top pollsters, and so this is really surprising because this was very close in twenty or pretty close in twenty twenty, so there was a chance for Donald Trump to win it. But he might have messed up by focusing so hard on changing the rules fifty days before the election. I think he struck a nerve with the voters in any two because this is how they have political relevancy, the
moment that happens, politicians just skipping Obraska from that point. Yeah, and you know, it was a five point race there and then overnight Harris's lead expanded to you know, over ten points in my polling average, and so seeing that anywhere else, so I think it's a direct reaction to it.
And interesting, Moss, can you tell us about any too basically, like why that might be, what types of voters might have been animated by what happened? It's I believe it's in the Omahai area.
Right, Yeah, Yeah, Well I think as along the same lines of when people were concerned in New Hampshire that maybe, although it didn't really come to play, that moving the primary data around in New Hampshire might annoy the voters there. Yeah, this is so specific to that place's relevancy that even though it's a lot less political, I think than New Hampshire, which is probably the most political of any of the states.
It still is going to matter. And you know, if it really annoys five percent of voters that might be in play, that's a game changer. And so the reason why this one district matters it probably doesn't seem like much because hey, you need two seventy to win. There's five hundred and thirty eight where I focus so much on one. Well, the way the math has worked out for this decade because every year, every ten years they decide, you know, how many electoral votes will be for each
state based off population. This time around, if Harris wins the state she's expected to, and she wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin with Nebraska second, that gets her exactly the two seventy.
Wow, that is so crazy, which shows you why they were trying to change this, but also it is understandable. You know, it also exposes the absurdity of the electoral college system that, like, you know, if you aren't one of those swing areas, politicians literally don't care whether you exist or not. So it makes sense that they wanted to try to hold on to their political relevance here. I wanted to get your sense of this New York Times Siena polling that we have. Let's go and put
this up on the screen. They did some polling of Wisconsin and Michigan in particular, and they found a very tight race Kamala Harris up forty nine to forty seven in Wisconsin, just forty eight to forty seven in Michigan. This is another one of those poles that had a large gap in Nebraska. No surprise, Trump leading in the
state of Ohio there as well. They pulled Ohio in the context of also pulling the very competitive Ohio Senate race there, but at least in the context of this poll, this shows some tightening in those quote unquote blue wall states. Is that consistent with what we're seeing across the board?
Ever, so slight tightening outstaying across the board since the debate, and that kind of makes sense because you have high points and low points for candidates and since to adjust a little more to the middle. I just think you don't know how to be a pet of because I said this last time it was on New York Times. Is a great polster, but they've consistently, with the one exception of the last PA Michigan poll been missing or not missing, but it's been a few points to the
right of other pollsters. Yeah, so yeah, they might have it right, but chances are there going to be a little bit to the right this cycle. So having a small lead in those states when everyone else showed you with a small but slightly better lead, I think is honestly a good sign for Harris.
Yeah, and what are you seeing in Michigan Because there's a lot being made in the tightening here that this could have been from the Dearborn area. This could be hemorrhaging among air of Americans, Muslim Americans around the deer Born area in Michigan, that when you have such a slim margin, it could wreck the whole state for your electorally at least, is there anything there.
I think it's a valid concern. But I also think this is a bit of a narrow that the Harris campaign and the Slocking campaign are all about, because the last thing they want is their own voters in Michigan to not take it seriously. Yeah, and hey, Slocking will love if National Democrats ands more in Michigan. So there's nothing wrong for Democrats. For Democrats to have that I'm concerned narrative because it gets their voters more likely to volunteer,
more likely to donate. I don't receive too much of a tiny inning in Michigan relative to other states, other than a tiny post debate slippitch. You know, it's a really competitive state that she's more likely to win than the other electoral than the other swing states. But I don't think things are falling apart there, at least not what I'm seeing in the polling.
Gotcha, guys, Logan is going to stick with us and reveal the latest from his forecast, the Race of the White House forecast. That's going to be available for everyone later in the week, but we're going to post that exclusively for premium subscribers right away, you know, after we
record it and post and all that good stuff. If you want to become a premium subscribe, we can put the discount back up on the screen fifteen dollars off through election day just entering that code BP twenty twenty four, so you can evail yourself of that discount. You can see more of space, and you can see more of soccer space looking like that is my blessing that I get to enjoy every day's here genuinely.
In any case, all right, we'll post all of this.
Like I said later in the week, Premium subscribers, stick around, Logan, let's go and put your model up on the screen.
Here.
More video is coming in of the utter devastation that is sweeping parts of the East Coast in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene. Let's go ahead and roll some of this footage. It's really shocking and upsetting. The death toll, it should be unnoted as well, is approaching one hundred as the time that we are recording this.
It's at eighty nine. Expected to grow.
And if you're looking at this video on your screen, you can understand why that's expected to grow because we are seeing studying stunning levels of flooding in places like Ashville, North Carolina. It's on your screen right now. I mean, just that was a Wendy's. If you're listening to this was a Wendy's with the water almost all the way.
To the roof. Incredible levels of flooding.
So Crystal, you actually spent a lot of time in Asheville and in places that are being so heavily affected by this right now, it's just.
This video we're watching right now too, is of a house floating down the street, and it is shocking. You know, I mean, this is not this is not actually, this isn't a coastal area. This is western North Carolina. You know, it's the Great Smoky Mountains. It's truly one of my favorite parts of the entire country. This is in now in Florida. And the way that the path this hurricane took and see mudslides onto the highways. Many of the interstates by the way leading into this area are completely
blocked and closed. Here you see some of the roadway that just like you know, fell just fell apart.
Here's the highway that fell apart.
These are people recording from within their own homes. I believe this one, Yeah, this was a hurricane house flood victim in Tampa. This one, I believe, also is in Florida. And the track that this hurricane took. It hit the Big Bend area of Florida, and then it came up through the inland areas and dumped just massive amounts of water on areas like Asheville, North Carolina. And so you know, if you're a coastal Florida resident, You've seen hurricanes before.
You evacuate, you know what to do.
These are people who have never imagined that they would be hit with a hurricane like this in a way that has just been utterly devastating.
I mean, the images are unimaginable.
People are stuck without food, without water, without gasoline, without the ability with cell phone. Yeah, no power, no cell no Wi Fi, nothing, and so you have people who are stranded and we don't know what condition they're in.
You know.
That's why there's a lot of fears that this death hol which is approaching one hundred, will continue to ride, because the devastation was so swift and so unexpected. Because communications have been cut off, there is effectively no ability to flee the region at this point. Because you saw some of the images of the bridges and roadways that
have just utterly collapsed. Your best bet, according to what I'm reading, is to try some of these different mountain back roads to get out of the area, because the main interstate highways have all been devastated. And we could put D two up on the screen here. Some locals are describing this as biblical devastation. In these North Carolina
towns that have been flooded by Helene. And from the images you can understand why let me read to you a little bit from the story, because it speaks to that you know just how unexpected it is to suffer something like this in this region. Beverly and Baxter Eller had lived in the same house in this small North Carolina hamlet for thirty seven years. Never once had it flooded in thirty seven years, never once until just before dawn on Friday, as Hurricane Helene tours through the region.
The water from the raging river rose fast and faster until it reached their yard. The couple fled, not a moment too soon to huddle with neighbors inside a Baptist church up the hill. On Saturday afternoon, they returned and found their home utterly destroyed. The manager of the county that includes Asheville, North Carolina, says this is looking to be Buncomb's County's own Hurricane Katrina, and the assistant Emergency services director says, we have biblical devastation through the county.
We have biblical flooding.
Here put the next one up on the screen that gives the latest in terms of the death toll, at least eighty seven people killed in six different states, including at least thirty in North Carolina. The image here is a truck upside down, nose down rivers, swollen creek there, and road that had clearly been flooded at one point.
And this article gets into how dificult it is to leave because multiple stretches of Interstates forty and twenty six, which are the main roadways for traveling in and out of this area, have are closed and will remain closed for god knows how long. You guys saw the devastation, how long will it take to fix and repair these roadways? And search operations and recovery operations sadly do continue.
So two feet of rain unbelievable.
Two feet of rain dropped on this area, and it's just it's unimaginable.
It's absolutely unimaginable.
So and the couple that was profiled briefly by the Washington Post, they right now, that Eller family, they don't know where their son is. They can't find their son. And in just that Washington Post article you see the accounts of people who don't know where all of their children are. There are a lot of people missing. North Carolina, Kentucky's being hit really hard.
There are a lot of people.
Missing, and so we're to nearly one hundred fatalities already. As you mentioned, the emergency director in the county that the Washington Post also was reporting on has invoked the quote mass fatality plan. So these numbers are going to get worse, and probably so much worse.
So it's just you know, this is these areas of like Asheville, for example.
People have posted is in a floodplaine, But that doesn't mean that people are used to It doesn't mean that it's obviously something that happens every year.
There's such a thing as hundred your flood. So this is this level two feet of water.
Yeah, it's not something that people's It's not the Florida coast, that's for sure.
Right, And this hurricane strengthened very rapidly as it was
coming over the Gulf. That strengthened from you know, tropical storm and rapidly escalated to when it came ashore it was a category for hurricane, which is of course close to the highest level, and so lots of devastation in Florida's the entire swath that it took you know, really tons of devastation, and you know, there is a sense that previous eras like I remind member being glued to the coverage of the horror and the failures of Hurricane Katrina.
You know, I remember some of the massive media attention on hurricanes and natural disasters of the past, and it does seem like because now we're getting hundred year floods every ten years, because the pace of these extreme weather events has escalated due to warming waters and due to climate change, it's sort of like the you know, mass shooting at the school phenomena where people just become anored and the media becomes innored and sort of you know,
numb to the scale of the devastation. Because I don't think it's I don't think it's wrong to call this, you know, akin to their Katrina in terms of the level of destruction and how long it will take this area to recover based on the images that we are seeing. And yet you know, the national attention, even the political attention, like Kama Harris has still at a fund doing a fundraiser in La like nothing's like, nothing happened. I don't, I mean, I'm sure Biden has put out some state.
Has he come out and addressed the nation. Where are the plans to like fly down and be on the ground. Where are the assertions of like, I you know, whatever you need, We're going to make sure that you've got it covered. I just I don't see that level of political or media response. That doesn't mean that they're not receiving resources. You know, the governor has said there's National Guard resources and federal resources.
Already on the ground there.
But it does feel like we've just sort of become numb to this level of catastrophe.
I mean, it's and this is where also, by the way, having a president who I mean, I continue to think of this as a constitutional crisis, A president who don't know his level of lucidity at any given moment. Yeah, it really does matter, and it really should infuriate people that this is who the leader of the United States is.
When you have people missing all over, you have nearly one hundred fatalities already, the president actually does have a lot of tools as the executive in situations like this, and so I mean, it's just it's just enraging really when you think about it through that context. Now, some people may remember after Hurricane Sandy, which happened in an election.
Year, Superstorm Sandy.
Superstorm Sandy twenty twelve, people have those kind of indelible images of Barack Obama and Chris Christie surveying the damage together.
We can put D three up on the screen.
There are already conspiracy theories proliferating actually about HARP.
Now.
HARP is reading from the University Alaska Fairbanks website.
So this is like the exact language that they use to describe it.
It is the High Frequency Active Oral Auroral Research Program, and they describe it as a scientific endeavor aimed at studying the properties and behaviors of the ion sphere. If you follow sort of the conspiracy world, you've definitely heard of HEART before.
Had you heard of heart before?
Yeah? Yeah, because it comes off.
It comes up in situations like this, And so D three is on your screen.
They are using HARP.
This Twitter user says to ensure that Hurricane Helene devastates the largest Republican stronghold area in Florida. This hurricane will destroy holmes, displace thousands, and ensure much less participation in the presidential election in November.
They will stop at nothing. So the theory there is that harp.
Was being used to actually create this entire hurricane a natural disaster, to affect the vote essentially in the presidential election. That was a theory that circulated when Sandy hit before the twenty twelve elections. So this isn't entirely new, but it's there's some like people we can put we have a mashup that we can put up here. There are some people, Crystal, your favorite Twitter user actually with that.
Turn yeahbody everybody's favorite ties or anything.
Yeah, something is off about the reporting of this hurricane, he posted. And then I mean the fact that it just popped up on the radar out of nowhere. Another person replied, I think it's weird. It hasn't been hyped up for days in advance like storms in the past, no water wall coverage, and all of a sudden it's here and it's serious. F so, and then the other meme, I don't mean to harp on it, but I don't
trust the government. And I think the other thing about that meme, to your point, Crystal, is that harp is really familiar in some of these conservative circles to the point where you can slap it on a meme. I shouldn't say conservatives these conspiracy circles because it tends to be it can be like fringe left and fringe right because it is like a very advanced and kind of like science fiction program. But we have a lot of things that are like straight out of science fiction in
this world these days. So that's already happening. And what's interesting is I think the media question is interesting.
The media not spotlighting.
This to the degree that it should be seems like it's fomenting some people to be like, wait, this is this is so weird. And actually the story is that journalists just don't know people in Appalachia. I just don't know people in North Carolina and Kentucky, and I don't understand probably how severe it is if they're producers in New York City. I mean, I think that's probably the best explanation for what it is.
I think that's definitely a part of it. There's no doubt if this happened in New York City, the coverage would be different like Sandy, by the way, like Sandy, and but in addition, because like Florida, for example, right now, like their property insurance with their homeowners insurance market is just basically completely collapse and fallen apart because of the number of billion dollar plus extreme weather events that happen now.
So it's also a frequency issue where it's like another hurricane, big deal, we get those all the time out you know, another like devastating only once in a hundred years thing that happens now every year.
Yeah, it's important, we'll cover it a little bit.
But it's you know, it loses the shock value when it happens over and over and over again. So I think it's those two things combined. I mean, I want to I don't want to harp on the like conspiracy.
I don't want to.
Do that.
I don't want to harp on the conspiracy instinct. But there is something that I've been thinking about a lot here which is not as you point out, Emily, this is not a new instinct in American politics, right. The paranoid style is that I've been reading. I'm reading it because I've been thinking a lot about this is not a new instinct in American politics. I didn't even know about the Superstar and Sandy conspiracies that this was like
a Democrat generated hurricane. To what convinced Chris Christie to hug Obama in the final stretch and hand the election to I didn't even know about that one. But it was interesting to watch this conspiracy develop too, because initially when it was first hitting, there are cat turt and others were sort of insinuating like, oh, this isn't even real, like I live in Florida and it was like barely
anything happening. And then once it was clear that this was a horrible, devastating situation, then it shifted to oh, well, it must have been like a Soros funded Democrat hurricane, because look how it's hurting these Republican areas. But also Asheville, North Carolina is like the most liberal hippie it's so it's like the crunchiest place in all of North Carolina. So even on the merits of your own deranged conspiracy, the whole thing falls apart.
But you know, there's something that happened.
Like I said, this isn't new, but it does seem like there's a new level and a new acceptance of just any event that happens. It can't just be what it is on its face, like for example, it's hurricane season. News flash, like we get hurricanes during hurricane season number one, number two, because the water temperatures are warmer, et cetera, et cetera, you would expect the hurricanes to be more severe.
In fact, in a lot of ways, we've kind of gotten lucky this hurricane season that there haven't been more and more frequent and more devastating storms that we've had to contend with. Everything has to be somehow, something that the mainstream media is not telling you, some under the radar thing, some nefarious shadowy or very specific Soros Democrats,
et cetera, wrongdoer. And and I do think that it escalated posts and Emily, I want to know your thoughts on this, because you knew about HARP and I didn't, so you're clearly more read in on these circles than I am. But what I've been thinking is that after Stop, this deal was really, you know, became normalized in the Republican Party, and in spite of the fact that there was zero evidence that there was actual like election manipulation.
I'm talking about changing votes or hiding votes or bringing in votes or whatever. I'm not talking about you know, social media companies doing a thing or Pennsylvania change in their laws. I'm talking about like out and out vote rigging.
There was no evidence for that, and yet you have a majority of Republicans who are convinced by Donald Trump, who holds enormous way with majority of the Republican base, to go along with that, and you have you know, whatever influencers were willing, like Cattered or whoever, to also go along with that. They became the new trusted arbiters. And so now there's no requirement of any sort of evidence.
And now whatever those people say, if they could just add to it, like oh, the mainstream media doesn't want you to know, it becomes credibly believed by a really large number of people. So it's not this, you know, in a sense, I think it is a fringe, but it's also not a like minuscule number of individuals who are buying into things like, oh, the Democrats made a hurricane to help hurt people in red parts of Florida.
Back in twenty twelve.
One of the websites that was spreading the harp stuff about Sandy was info Worth and Alex Jones is now on tour with Tucker Carlson.
I think Tucker was at the R and c rights, right.
And so I mean, I think there's something to that. There's kind of a mainstreaming and part of it is because you know, there have been so many problems with media coverage. So I understand it, and I think Alex Shens is legitimately in Tucker interesting figures. But when you're at that level and you're Donald Trump, for example, and you're going into these places as a kind of cope for losing an election, or he was even saying it. HBO has a pretty good documentary out right now. I
think it's called Stop the Steal. And when you look back on how Trump was talking about the election before the election even happened, at one point he said, the only way that we'll lose is if it's rigged. When you have the president of the United States saying that, it obviously gives weight and it's obviously something that gives people sort of permission.
And reason to believe.
If you're not somebody that's like, you're not working professionally in politics, you have a job. You don't have to, like, you can't follow politics obsessively the people who work.
In the media do.
When the president of the United States says something, it means something.
It means that to you, it signals there must be something more to this the president is saying it.
So it's easy to see why people have taken some of this stuff much more seriously. I think part of it is that we're unlike most of the country on Twitter, so we see a little bit more of it in the musk era at the same.
Time, and on Facebook lately. Girl, No, I haven't.
But the thing I'm gonna say is that when things seem inexplicable, like the host of Celebrity Apprentice becoming the President of the United States, yea, we turned to like scapegoats. We turned to these more conspiratorial explanations, or some people do. And that's where I think the Russia stuff came out of. Was there has to be a way to explain this because it doesn't make sense otherwise.
Well, I think you have, and we'll table this for now, so I'm sure that the topic will come back to again. But you have some really genuine jarring elite institutional failures, right and lies, rock war financial collapse being the two most obvious, but I'm sure we could point to many more as well.
And then you layer on top of that.
Yeah, something inexplicable, like you know, a reality TV show star riding the top. Democrats like this breaks their brain. They can't wrap their head. It's got to be Russia. It's got to be something going on. And then because you have this break in any sort of institutional trust, it just opens up a vacuum for whoever's going to fill that in and be the one who's like, but I'm going to tell you the truth. And Donald Trump
like there is more affinity. I mean, it is a cult of personality around Donald Trump at this point, right, and for.
About thirty percent of the Republican electorate, which is significant, like yeah, extremely significant.
Yes, And whatever he says like evidence free evidence will like whether it has backing or not, like that's gospel. And then if, like I said, if you have these influencers surrounding him that are backing up everything that he says, they become also these like trusted ambassadors, and then whatever they say also goes. And then you have the algorithmic and monetary incentives, which are all in the direction of
like you know, pushing the Soros harp dumkrat hurricane machine thing. Sure, you're going to get a lot of clicks and a lot of views if you're willing to float that, yep, and like put on some video that purports to show some sort of evidence in that direction. And so then you know, capitalism takes hold in the people's bottom line and their desire for attention and influence and whatever takes over and.
There you go. That's what that's how you get where we are now.
One hundred percent.
Yeah, it's been a wild I mean when we were even talking about Hofstadt or that was a book written in the mid nineteen fifties.
Yeah, we sort of think of that.
Some people think of that as like the archetypical like American dream period, but we think of it as at least like sort of old. But technology was crazy, like advancing at a crazy clip in the nineteen fifties, Like that was really unnerving to people. An atomic weapon had just been developed and then dropped in the span of like what twenty years, That had all transpired really quickly.
So technology really unsettles people, and especially in the United States, like it just feels puts us through the wringer, and we look to new places for explanations because so much of it we are living in very odd times.
Yeah, I think that's true. And then yeah, the social media part of this and the sort of the AI fueled part of this, like that definitely plays into it as well. I'm sure there are many other things we could say about it, but in any case, we have a really important guest standing by that we wanted to make sure to get into the show today. Mama Dutel is facing expulsion from Cornell, which would lead to his loss of his foreign student visa, which means he's likely
to get deported all over his pro Palestign activism. We wanted to hear his side of the story. As you know, this is all this is all unfolding very quickly and very imminently, so let's go on and get to that.
So we've been.
Tracking here closely the censorship movement across college campuses, especially with regard to pro Palestinian activism, and today we're really fortunate to be joined by a student who is facing expulsion not only from Cornell University but ultimately from the country, because if he is expelled, he will be he will lose his student Lisa, and will ultimately be deported. Mamadou Teal is a graduate student at Cornell University and joins us.
Now, great to see you, so nice to meet you.
Thanks for having me, good morning.
Yes, of course we can put this Rolling Stone article up on the screen that explains some of what happened here. The headline Cornell grad student who attended pro Palestine protest could be forced to leave you As you told Rolling Stone that they want to make an example out of you, you feel that you were singled out for disciplinary action.
Could you just tell us a little bit about how this all started?
Yeah, I mean where do I begin?
I mean, fundamentally, since last year October, we've had a sustained campaign on campus which is calling for a divestment, which is showing solidarity what's happening in Palestine at the moment, in Gaza specifically, and then the most recent iteration of this kind of I believe targeting because I become a visible person and normally key speech that there rallies, and I think people have come to associate a lot of what was happening on campus with me as an individual,
even though it's a movement of more than one hundred and fifty two hundred three hundred students right who I regularly attend the protest. This most recent iteration. We had a rally last week outside of administrative building, after which the crowd went into the hotel, which is nearby to where the rally was. I spoke at the rally and I followed the crowd. The crowd went inside the hotel wherein there was a recruitment fair in which there was
two weapons manufacturers present, Boeing and L three Harris. We went inside after brief encounter of the police. From my perspective, looked like the police just let the people in. I went inside and then I was inside about five minutes and then I left. When I had left, I had bumped into the Chief of Police, and he has had it out for me, my opinion, since the last semester because of the encampment stuff.
Then he kind he made a funny noise at me. He walked past me.
Next day, I sees an email from him that I had been referred to the Student Code of Conduct. After that, the Monday, last Monday twenty third, I've seen an email I've been temporarily suspended. I was called into a meeting and in the meeting I was told that okay, I've been temporarily suspended and I.
Should contact the senior immigration officer.
And then I was informed that I will have no grace period and I have to leave the country promptly if the suspension is upheld.
And oh no, at that point, dispension was I was in place.
And I think due to the pressure, due to the petition, due to the support, is you know, I'm going for an APO process now, which was not offered to me before.
Okay, So that's one interesting question here is the student code of conduct.
So tell us what.
You're alleged to have violated in the student code of conduct. And then I think a great question for that actually would be with do you disagree with the student code of conduct, because that's a real problem at some schools. Their student codes of conduct are actually overly restrictive of expressions. So tell us your perspective on that.
In this case, absolutely so.
The official narrative the school saying, and the school said that people pushed past the police, people saying and the police are saying that, you know, people were scared and intimidated. Again, a lot of racialized language. Right, I didn't push you past any police officer. I can say that categorically, and
I was inside for about five minutes. So what my charge seat says, you were a part of a crowd that pushed past the police, or you will let you let or you repeated chance inside the hotel, and I've just said to okay, if anything, let me see the evidence. And I've had no chance to the evidence. There's been
no investigation, there's nothing afforded to me. All I've been told is that my behavior is such a danger to campus that I can't be on campus, which again I don't understand that, because I mean, my ie teacher, I used to teach a class last week, and my kids can testify, my students testify what kind of environment I created the class. And I've even heard from law professors who don't want to be who don't want to be named.
I've said that when we created a student card of conduct, a temporary suspension was in place for the most egregious acts, for example, not for people just protesting on XIS in the first Amendment?
Right, were there other students who were part of this protest who finished, who are facing similar but disciplinary action.
So there was about one hundred and fifty students present, as far as I'm aware, for a whole week. I was the only one that was in trouble, and now I've heard I think there's three others now who have received the non academic suspension, which is again the first and foremost the American citizens. And second of all, it doesn't mean it doesn't have no implication from other other than than able to be on campus.
But they can intend to all their classes still.
So I want to ask about something that this writer, Steve McGuire posted on x He was talking about you, and he said, this guy.
Is one of the lead protesters at Cornell.
When the student government denied his group's divestment resolution, he and others vowed to repeatedly disrupt the campus, which they did. He was suspended last year too. Looks like Cornell might be done messing around. That's what McGuire posted. Can you respond to the allegation that you were vowing to repeatedly disrupt the campus and then again in that context of the student Code conduct conversation, should you be allowed to be disruptive in protest when you feel it's appropriate.
I think it's very hypocritical of people like Steve McGuire and also the school itself.
I'm in Africana Studies.
Africana Studies was the first African and studies established in the United States of America. In nineteen sixty nine, students took arms. It was an armed takeover black by black students to demand the university to allow an Africana Studies center at Cornell, after which after that was established Cornell year in and year out, like the good old liberals always do, add nauseum, talk about the celebration of student protests on campus. They talk about, oh, how big the
Vietnam protest was. They talk about how big anti impartheid movement was on Cornell's campus. They celebrate this every year because they can do that retroactively. When students exercise the same thing for something one of the biggest, one of the biggest issues in the world today, they are met with sorts of repression. But again I understand because this issue of Palestine, I keep saying to people, you cannot divorce this from Palestine. Palestine is why is the reason
why we're receiving such oppressive tactics against us. So again, a protest is supposed to be disruptive, and.
I understand that. Okay, people can balance the needs of other students.
But again, there's been no violent behavior, there's been no threatening behavior. For maybe at most you're going to have a thirty minute inconvenience.
Mama, Dear, what happens now? What does the time let line look like for you? And are they giving you any chance to at this point appeal this decision?
Yeah, I have one more shot and appeal, which I filed last Friday, and I was emailed back by the provost who told me he's committed to an independent review. And he said that the student Code of Conduct doesn't give him any guidance as to or it gives him limited guidance when in regards to temporary suspensions and reviewing them. He told me he'll get back to me next week.
So I'm just waiting at the moment. And just to add, Cornell signed a memorandum of agreement with our union, our Grads Worker Union and the union, and Cornell has a legally binding document that says any effects of discipline must go through bargain bargaining. And Cornell is not honoring that legally binding document right now, and it haste to get rid of me.
That's a very important point.
And let me just ask, like what a lot of detractors on the ride or in the sort of Zionist movement would say is if you you know, if you hate America in the West so much, then why do you want to be a student at Cornell. So I was curious how you would respond to that, Mamadu, like, what is your Why is it important for you to be to be at Cornell and to have your voice heard?
Yeah?
I think I think regardless of my political views, again, I haven't been threatened and I haven't threatened them nobody. I should have a right to be here. I'm studying. I made my way to Cornelly by my work in my third year, plus my my CE exams for my PhD last just two weeks ago. So again, I'm an educational institution in which I have a right to be here.
I worked my way to get here. If people are saying, because of your political views, you should not be in a certain place, and I think that's a very slippery slope for not just people with my views, but people with many other views.
What can people do if they want to support you? And also also, do you have any regrets you know if you ultimately are supported back to or self support. I guess back to the UK, do you have any regrets about your activism? Would you do anything differently?
I think people can help me by writing into the school to the provost. I know there's a petition still going around which I believe you're posting the link description. And as for regrets, then no, I think whatever happens to me, I think it's an unfortunate experience. It will
mean significant harm and damage to my own life. But I also think to myself, there's nothing in comparison to what Palestinians are going through, and I can never imagine myself if I do have the fortunate experience to reach my old age, I will never imagine thinking to myself, oh I did too much for because this is just I mean, I haven't I think anyone of good moral conscience cannot see the daily images of what's happening in Palistine and not being moved, So I can never think
a day will come and I say to myself, oh I think I went too hot for Palistine book.
I don't regret it.
Mama du Tal, thank you so much for explaining your story to reviewers this morning, and as you said, we're going to have the petition linked in the descriptions of people want to support you their hot opportunity.
Thank you again, Thank you so much. It's a pleasure our own.
Emily Tishinski was a guest on Ezra Klein's podcast, which I've been listening to his show a lot recently. In part I gave him a lot of credit for like being early to the hey Democrats, like you really need to move on from Joe Biden. Like you get a lot of cred in my book if you're in a mainstream space and you have that, And you get even more credit if you're willing to have Emily on. So tell us a little bit about, you know, what you were booked to talk about, what your experience.
Was like, Yeah, you know, I actually met producer at the National Conservatism Conference where I was talking back in June about online pornography. Oddly enough, it just started like
how as one does, as one does. It was it's kind of like the conversation we were just having about conspiracy theories a couple of blocks ago, because it just it's come about really quickly and sort of a younger perspective and how that changed people's lives, modernity and all of that stuff, So as I wanted to talk about that kind of in the context of realignment stuff, so sort of where this new right national conservatism movement is to
some extent rooted in discomfort with modernity and how it's actually like working, like how it's manifesting, how it plausible it is as a political movement, and how the sort of Trump of it all affects the future of the right.
So we had a really interesting conversation, and honestly, I was a little unsure because not everybody is Crystal and Ryan, you know, like not everybody is you know, and you know, I remember on Kyle Crystaline Friendsly, we had a great conversation and not it's always you.
Never know what you're going to get.
Yeah, definitely, but as.
There's been like he's a good faith he operates in good faith.
Yeah, and he pushed you in a number of areas, absolutely.
But it led to that, you know, that led to a really interesting exchange. There was one portion we wanted to play for you guys where he asked about Project twenty twenty five and like, okay, obviously Trump doesn't want to talk about this and wants to distance himself from this, but our liberals really wrong to feel like, Okay, this is the plan that's laying around in the sort of like you know.
Conservative Washington d date. So isn't this very aren't they?
Isn't it reasonable to say this is probably a lot of what is actually going to happen?
And in Trump administration, Let's take a listen at what Emily had to say.
So let's ground this a little bit in Donald Trump. So, if he wins in twenty twenty four, which seems very possible, he's got to govern with some kind of coalition. And I think one of the problems he's had this year is that sort of Project twenty twenty five stepped in to try to describe what that would look like for him,
and he's I think whish is they had not. But he's not identified an alternative way he would govern if it's not going to be these groups who are vetting all these people to work with him, and all these people who already did work with him, Like, who's it going to be? So when you think about a next Trump administration and when you report on it, how do you think it would differ in its coalition or its priorities than the first Trump administration.
The genesis of Project twenty twenty five. And you've probably picked up on this, Azra, but even just talking to people who were involved in it journalistically, you hear them and it was this idea that Donald Trump just he's not a man of the conservative movement. He doesn't come in with the infrastructure. That was part of the reason
that conservatives pushed him to pick Mike Pence. Because Mike Pence as VP knew all of the heads of the conservative movement groups, where you would tap personnel and staff from, where you would tap the white papers from. He kind of knew where to look to get people and policies. And because Trump's orbit hadn't become, you know, substantially more cohesive or policy centric, people really started to say, all right,
we need something like a Project twenty twenty five. This ultimately became Project twenty twenty five because this isn't organized, and that's why a Project twenty twenty five and Heritage also have something called I think it's called like the one hundred Day Agenda that hasn't been made public yet. It's internal I've never seen it, but it's the executive orders that should be.
Ready to go on day one.
It was this idea that there's nothing like we're having all of these debates, but we're not putting any of it into sort of a hard agenda. A lot of Project twenty twenty five, this is something that hasn't been reported, but a lot of it is like debates internally. There's there's one policy that's outlined about a child tax credit, and then another policy that's outlined about.
A child tax credit.
Heels that none of this is even being facilitated, and that because Project twenty twenty five has become such a lightning rod, the ball has not moved further down the field on that question. The Trump campaign sort of haphazardly tried to put out its own agenda. Trump still is Trump, though,
and goes back and forth. And this is probably the central problem of the new Right that we keep coming back to time and again, is that he doesn't have a cohesive ideology, and in a way, he's more similar to a lot of average Americans.
Ezra floated an idea I think after this in the podcast that I hadn't contemplated before. The assumption in liberal circles is like Trump is going to be worse this time because he's going to have a shit together basically, and so like all the craziest stuff that he wanted to do last time, but he couldn't really get his act together to do this time. They got their ducks in a row, They've got their loyalists. They're going to you know, fire the deep state.
They're going to install the Trump loyalists.
And if there was to be a January sixthtal event this time around, they would have the you know, the people at the State Department and wherever to actually seize the ballot boxes, et.
Cetera, et cetera.
And he says, you know, but there is an alternative possibility, which is that he's actually more chaotic and less competent because now you have all of these different factions that have developed that are fighting for control of what the Trump agenda is going to be. And I was curious if you could elaborate more on your.
Thoughts on that.
Yeah, I mean, I don't want to rule out either possibility, but I also think, and we talked about this a little bit, there are not enough people in the world, let alone sort of professional Republican political spaces, to staff an agenda like what a sort of extreme Trump agenda would look like or I should even say like an extreme conservative agenda.
Yeah, because you need to fill the.
So called like deep state spaces. Not only do you need to like fire everybody that's in them now, you then need to bring new people in to at least staff some of them. And the Trump administration we saw last time, this was part of Project twenty twenty five to two, they would they just had a really hard time a getting certain things past the bureaucracy, which as a conservative I look at and I'm like, that tells
you the president is not ultimately in charge. Like that's a legitimate problem, and you've seen it even play out. Ryan and I have talked about this before in ways that really are shocking.
From the left.
If you have a left policy that the EPA doesn't want to actually fulfilled because you have a bunch of careers who have been there and have been through the revolving door with special interests in all of that stuff, I think that's a legitimate problem. But that aside, if you can't at least replace some of those people, you can't really do much because you're just going to be hampered.
Now.
On the other hand, at the executive level. That's a huge question because Donald Trump learned a big lesson from his side with Mike Pence, and he thinks that Jade Vance will not be a Mike Pence if we have another January sixth, and that was part of creating these new loyalty litmus tests. And I just don't I don't know that we have the answer to that question, actually, because politicians are ultimately self interested creatures, and if Jade Vance is sort of reading the tea leaves on a
potential January sixth, I don't know. I think you have to stress test. And on the other hand, though at the executive level, Donald Trump will not make the mistake, as he sees it, of putting more Mike Pences around him. But there aren't that many people in professional Republican spaces that are hardcore MAGA and they might they might be publicly, but privately they don't want to be roped into those situations because they still don't know what happens after.
Trump, right, which sort of illuminates the fact that there are two types of true believers. Mike Pence was a true believer in a certain way, but not a true believer. And when it came down to it, right, So he was a true believer and I mean all the policies, like, he was on board. He was the one in the meeting when they said, tell us something great about Donald Trump.
He's the first thing is that mostly is the best president, so amazing hard.
You know, he hung in there with him on the election stuff, that's right, until he wouldn't certain he wouldn't do the like he wouldn't do the Claremont and State John Eastman plan.
But he hung in there.
Yeah, until j he was willing to give credence to like, oh maybe these lawsuits, you know, maybe this was rigged and so so I mean he but he got to his breaking point. So in Trump's view, he ends up not being a true believer. He's hoping JD vance. Like I think the critical threshold for JD isn't about his policy views, of which Trump seems relatively uninterested. It's his belief that when it came down to January sixth, he would do what Mike Pence was unwilling to do.
So there's two types of true believers.
There's like the people who would be like, yeah, I believe in a ten percent tariff across the board, and I'm willing to make waves and piss people off and like, you know, use my agency's powers to effectuate that outcome.
And that's one type of true believer.
And then there's the type of true believer that will say, yes, sir, I will throw the country into a constitutional crisis based on literally nothing and you know, be okay with this violence at the.
Capitol and whatever.
And I think it's harder to vet for that second type totally a true believer, because I think he probably believed that Mike Pence was that second type.
Of true believer right up until that day.
I mean, he was reportedly pressuring him all the way up and still thinking he said, I think at his you know, infamous speech like well, let's hope Mike Pence does the right thing.
Yep.
So he still thought up until that moment that Mike Pence potentially was that type of just you know, throw out the constitution and do whatever I tell you to true believer.
And what's interesting about JD.
Vance And this is the conversation you guys have talked to him, so you've picked up on this, I'm sure, but he is like a sincere postliberal. I think one of the mistakes the left makes about jd Vance has said that he's just pro Trump for opportunistic purposes, but he really when he converted to Catholicism. He has like a multi thousand word essay on this in the Catholic
publication of the Lamp. It's very fully fleshed out sincere postliberal worldview, and what postliberal in that context means is that sometimes you sort of this is a simplification, of course, but yeah, sometimes the Constitution has limits, right, sometimes there are sort of illiberal ends that are just, And so that is sincerely how belief that Janey Vance has now how that pertains to the Constitution in any sort of different context is an open question, but it does tell
you that he comes from the sort of Patrick denin orbit, where the Constitution isn't the sort of sacred almost like holy text that a lot of the conservative movement thought that it was, that there are these arguments that can be made that it can sort of be stretched in emergency circumstances, et cetera. So that could mean there's a difference on January sixth between Mike Pencer jd Vance, but it also couldn't.
So it's like fascinating question.
I the way you articulated it, I think is not particularly different from how I view jd.
Vance.
I think his embrace of Trump is in that, like it's very convenient for him.
Yeah that at the moment when he wants.
To run for senator and has national political ambitions, suddenly he's, you know, a big Trump fan. I think that's opportunistic because of he does believe you put this more diplomatically, but in some sense he believes, like the ends justify the means, and if the means are posing up to this guy that I once said might be America's Hitler, then I'll do it. If the means are like, you know, lying about Patians eating pets in the town that I represent,
I'll do that. If the means are potentially like, you know, doing what Mike Pence wouldn't do on January sixth, if it's going to help me accomplish the ends that I genuinely believe are better, superior, et cetera, yeah, I'll do that too. And so that's so in that sense, I believe I think he's a true believer about the ideological view that he holds. Do I think it's a true believer in all the like, you know how much he loves Trump now and thinks Trump's so great, et cetera,
et cetera. No, because it's very was very politically convenient the way that that all went down. But do I think that he views Trump as the tool, the nearest vessel for his own ideological ambitions.
Yes, I believe that, And.
That was the critical distinction.
I mean, I think that's what happened to a lot of people on the right, especially after Michael Anton, who was anonymous at the time but wrote the Flight ninety three election.
I think this is October of twenty sixteen.
Yeah, that was the beginning of this conversion for a lot of sort of the intellectual conservative world, who said, we are in illiberal times, so we can't use liberalism as the tool to return to and this is like classical liberalism, so small l we can't use liberal means to get back to this like classical liberal utopia that
we want to return to. We have to sometimes say Donald Trump may be illiberal, but Hillary Clinton is more liberal, or Joe Biden or Kamala Harris is worse because they want to do X, Y and Z, so you have.
To stick with this person.
The plane's going down, you have to take the risk. And Jadvance is very much in that camp, and there are a lot of sort of intellectual conservatives in that camp right now.
But what that doesn't mean.
Is that they make a very particular decision come another January sixth, and that's a stand in for other potential constitutional emergencies and that Donald Trump could pursue from an executive levels as president. But really there he would he on after the twenty twenty election, lacked people around him who would go through with what he wanted. I mean a lot of people actually ended up quitting have since
like spilled a lot of dirt on him. Yeah, and he was left with Sidney Powell, Rudy Giuliani and whatever the other Lynn Woold Mike Lindell and they're just jd Vance is not going to go full Sidney Powell. So who knows what happens, But it was I think it's helpful to kind of talk some of that stuff.
Out because you just we don't know. There's still just so much uncertainty about what happens.
Would you describe that news strain in thinking, which you know is amplified by Anton embraced by Jade Vance, etcetera. I mean, would you describe that as anti democratic? Basically, like, listen, if we have to like not be a democracy for a little while to yeah, accomplish our ends, then that's what we're going to do.
Well. Anton has actually written about how we need a red Caesar, like a quote red Caesar, and so yeah, absolutely there. And Curtis Yarburn, for example, is basically like a monarchist. I don't know where JD probably wouldn't fall into that category, but that was the sort of.
He's somewhere on that spectrum though.
Yeah, And it's frustrating because like sometimes like I'll I signed the National Conservatism Statement when it came out because it was pretty boilerplate conservatism as I saw it. But at the same time this I really really really empathize with and understand postliberalism and think that it has a lot of better points than the sort of old fusionist
conservative order when it comes to identifying problems. But I fundamentally am like not on board with the post liberal solutions to the problems of contemporary liberalism.
And that's what's sort of frustrating sometimes.
Because you get lumped in with one or the other and the people every one do you actually think it's like, well, I think these problems are real.
I just think this is we don't need a red Caesar, Like, please don't tell me that we need a red caesar. So it's such a crazy time on the right. Crazy.
Well, this has been very interesting, fact to you, this only I actually feel like I understand your political ideology perhaps better than I ever have. And I really recommend some people that you listen to the full episode of Emily with Ezra, because I'm at least really you know, fascinated by what Jdvans represents and what is after trump Ism and what are the rising intellectual currents on the right and what they mean for for all of us,
And they dig into a lot of that. So we'll have the link in the description you guys can check all of that out. Thank you so much for hanging with us on a whirlwind day here. Reminder, we are going to do a live stream coverage of the debate. Will be here like I don't know, an hour, early hour and a half early something like that, so we can all speculate and then see whatever.
Still to have a drink, maybe I don't know. I get, we'll bring you some ghosts.
I don't really drink at all now, so when I even have one drink, it.
Can slobby real fast. It gets slobby real fast. So anyway, we'll see if that happens.
But you know, I love for us to do an hour beforehand where we can all make predictions that immediately get just like demolished in real time. So that's what we'll I'll be here doing tomorrow night, and we hope to see you guys there