Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here, and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of ways we can up our game for this critical election.
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If you like what we're all about, it just means the absolute world to have your support. But enough with that, let's get to the show. Good morning, everybody, Happy Monday. We have an amazing show for everybody today. What do we have Crystal and Dan.
We do a bunch of new polls, including a new yon one out from the New York Times, which is like shows a totally different picture than the ones that we're on. Yesterday from NBC News, we got a Nate Silver Election model update, so we'll get into all of that. We also have some Oprah clips from the big Kamala Oprah moment that we wanted to share with you all. Want to discuss what that did for her campaign if anything. Also some news on whether or not Kamala and Trump
are going to debate again. She says yes, He says probably not. So that's where things stand. Bunjo oal sex scandals that we got to talk to you about this morning. We'll just is the North Carolina are okay, top reporter here.
In d C.
So a lot of interesting things that went down this weekend, and on a much much more serious note, basically horror in the Middle East as Israel prepares to turn Lebanon into Gaza, very much projecting that that's the direction that they're going in. So you know, something that has been feared and foreshadowed for many, many months, and yet the US administration has done absolutely nothing to block that dimensuality that we have now arrived at. So a lot to talk about this morning.
Yes, that's right.
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Now let's go ahead and put this up there on the screen.
We are officially in the absolute run up to the election, only forty three days until that happens, and people are already voting, including in the state of Virginia nearby.
Let's go ahead and put this up there on the screen. The video.
This was a Virginia precinct on the very first day of early voting. You can see people lined up around the block. People really made an event of it. I personally experienced this as well. When I was walking around on Friday. I was stunned at the crowds. I was like, well, maybe a fancy news shop or something open, no news elections, That's what it was. People were voting, people were geared up. Most of these people are going to be upper middle
class liberal because this is northern Virginia. But it does demonstrate that there is a lot of enthusiasm. In fact, the one day voting a record was broken by one pm. Prior to twenty twenty two, more people had already voted by just in the middle of the day than in twenty twenty two in that election, So there's significantly a lot of enthusiasm. I am told in the rural districts in Virginia there were similar levels of enthusiasm as well. So Trump people are also showing up to vote, but
they just don't live around here in Northern Virginia. So it's a tight election. People are fired up, they're ready to go, and we're in for it, Crystal.
Yeah.
And this is also when we start to get into the phase of election where people look to any sort of metrics that they can to grab on too to figure out what the hell is going on. And I would just caution twenty twenty let's all, you know, put our minds back where that was during the pandemic. It
was a totally different electoral landscape. So you really can't compare the early voting numbers here with the early voting numbers there because it just was such a totally different situation with people wanting to vote early, with the fact that Trump was discouraging anything other than day of election voting.
It really is an apples and orange comparison. I'm sorry, I know that's not satisfying, but I just wanted to put that into the mix, Like, don't make too much of any of these early data signs because it's very difficult, I think, to compare them to past election cycles.
Exactly.
I'm glad that you said that, because that's one of those where there will be quite a bit and I've actually seen a lot of these go viral. They're like, if we just correct the polls for twenty sixteen and twenty twenty, Trump is one hundred percent going to win. I'm like, yeah, there's just one problem is that we had a twenty twenty two election, so you know, and also, I mean, I keep saying this. Elections are every four years.
We don't have a very good sample size. We have some knowledge of what things are, and outliers happen all the time. As debates don't matter right famously.
Well what does the say they do until they do? So there you go.
Let's go to a two. Please up on the screen. This is important from Nate Silver. We now see he says, quote the big picture, this is his latest election forecast. Who is favored to win the presidency. He actually has now Kamala at fifty one percent and Donald Trump at forty eight point six.
That's basically a coin to os. He might as well look at that.
Anybody trying to parse, like, oh, Kamala's up or Trump is out. Listen, forty eight point six percent versus fifty one That is a fifty to fifty And basically, in my mind, anything in the sixty to forty range might as well be fifty to fifty just because of how the polls have been off in both directions. Just this morning, underscoring man is a slew of polls from the New York Times.
We can go ahead and put that on the screen. I mean, this should show you.
As close as it possibly can get for what the electoral map could look like. So the New York Times has Trump with significant strength in the sun Belt battleground states. For example, in the state of Arizona, they have Donald Trump at fifty percent to Harris's forty five.
They you have Georgia.
Donald Trump forty nine percent to Harris's forty five. Both of those are actually really quite good polls for Trump because previously you had seen things differently. I should note at least for Georgia that there are within the margin of error, and then in North Carolina you have forty nine to forty seven. I would put that North Carolina number effectively at a tie, especially considering some of the North Carolina news we have later on in the show.
But what we can learn at least from this is if you look at the overall polling average that they peg THEIRS against Crystal Arizona, they have Trump plus five the polling average Trump plus two. Georgia they have Trump plus four, polling averages, Trump plus two. North Carolina the polling averages even they have Trump plus three. So those
are the latest polls that they are pegging themselves. You should also look to some of the past polling where they didn't necessarily have Trump up nearly this much in the state of Arizona. But you know, now as crunch time, most people a lot of people actually.
As swing voters.
Some past data indicates they don't really make up their mind until about three to four weeks.
Before the election.
That could change because you can vote a lot earlier now these days, So maybe right now is like really the crunch time for people and how they're thinking about
the elections. But you should just consider, you know, if you do watch a show like this, or you're reading the news or any of that, you're kind of an outlier relatives to the general population and how they think about politics and all that can actually change significantly, And in such a close election like today, it's make or break time for both the candidates.
I mean, we're just waiting to see which way the polling miss goes.
I don't know.
Yeah, And that's nothing against the pollsters. It's gotten increasingly hard to pull or for understandable reasons, like you know, people are on cell phones, there's a low response. Then you have these response rate biases where when something happens that one side is really excited about, then they want to pick up the phone and talk.
To the pollster, et cetera.
So you know, it's very perplexing to look at like the New York Times Siena polls that just came out, which are really bad for Kamala Harris, and then look at the NBC News polls that just came out which are really good for Kamala Harris. But the truth of the matter is, you know, both of them, if you factor in the margin of error, are continued to show
a really tight, really close race. I do want a twelve er second on the Nate Silver model because part of why he was so pessimistic about Kamala Harris coming out of the convention, where other models showed more strength for her, and now the streams have crossed again and
he has her a very slight favorite. He had factored in like, oh, I'm going to assume that she's going to get this two point post convention bounce, and so I'm going to basically like back that out of my averages, and that's how we ended up showing so much Trump
strength coming out of the convention. And now that the polls haven't shifted all that much and his model has shifted a lot, I think it's fair to say, like factoring that in may not have really been like Trump didn't get a convention mount so there were extenuating circumstances by and dropping out of the race, whatever. But I think also Kamala doesn't appear to have gotten that much of a convention bounce either, and backing that out and assuming that she did, and then sort of like digging
her for that. I'm not sure that that actually bore out in reality, which is just a testament to the fact. Look again, you have to go based on history, that's what he's working on. This is again not to slam him or whatever. I know, everybody's like doing their best they can with the data that they have, But I think it just shows you this is a very kind of locked in electorate. There's going to be very little
movement between these two candidates. These poles are going to look like fifty to fifty basically from here to election day. And one other thing I wanted to flag, especially in light of the New New York Times Siena poll that shows, you know, Georgia with Trump with a little bit of
an edge there. You know, in general, I think the poles have tended to show him in Georgia with a little bit of an edge, and him doing a little bit better in Georgia than North Carolina, which is kind of interesting as well and obviously reverse.
Of last time.
But we just got the news out of Georgia that their Board of Elections, which has been stacked with a lot of sort of like hardcore Trump loyalists has now determined that they're going to require all election day votes to be.
Hand counted hand counted.
That means Georgia is going to take forever to come in on election night.
Yes, I think it's a horrible idea.
I think it injects chaos into an already chaotic situation, but that's what they've decided. So just keep in mind we are probably going to be waiting election night a long time to actually figure out what the heck is going on in Georgia. And then the other piece of that is the rural areas that are obviously stronger for Trump and obviously have very much lower population counts, they are likely to come in earlier than the larger population center.
So you could have this what we had back in twenty twenty, the quote unquote red mirage in Georgia where it looks like Trump is running way ahead because the areas that are stronger for Democrats come in later with this new hand counting, which I again think is a horrible idea, but that's what they've decided.
Well, the what they say is that that it would basically it could take not even the day of it commenced day of but I mean it could take up to weeks apparently according to some of the board members.
Insane that are there.
I do believe that this will undergo significant court challenge. So this isn't one hundred percent just yet, both about feasibility that some of the people who are against this are claiming that it's literally impossible to do. But it does demonstrate I mean, look, this is always the chaos in the United States where all fifty states get to decide how they run their own elections and they only have their own proclivities. On the other side of the of the coin, for Kamala was a decent run coming
out of NBC. Let's put this up there on the screen. For example, we have her at registered polls. They claim a five percent lead Harris forty nine, Trump forty four.
Quote.
Harris's favorability has jumped sixteen points since July, according to them, the largest increase for any politician in NBC since Bush's forty three standing surge after nine to eleven.
Yeah, that is crazy if we continue in the battleground run, Let's go to this run.
But this does show really a similar story where according to them in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Harris is act truly leading and or tied. So they have Michigan at fifty to forty eight. For Harris, Pennsylvania they have forty nine to forty nine basically tied. Wisconsin they have fifty forty eight four Harris. So she, according to them, is showing strength in those traditional blue wall states in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada.
Though they had her up.
For example, in Arizona and down by one in Georgia, up by three in Nevada, and then up by one in the.
State of North Carolina.
When you combine it though with New York Times Sienna, I think you do see a pretty significant fifty fifth basically the any any one that shows her winning. Also there's an equally decent one to show her losing. In terms of the betting markets, there has been an interesting move. If we could go to Polymarket please and put a five on the screen.
Polymarket, which currently has about a.
Billion dollars worth of bets on the presidential election, has Kamala at fifty two forty seven as of yesterday. I just checked it and it looks like it's fifty one forty seven.
Now, so there you go, and.
Basically fifty to fifty again, for anybody who is an avid better you would know that there's, yes, there's significant upside I think for the people who are working spreads and others for fifty two to forty seven. But you could just see that that is as close to tie as it gets. And you know, Harry Enton over at CNN, he's got decent analysis and he always tries to point out this is the closest election in almost sixty years
here in the United States. And if that's the truth, on election day, I think we should all just be comfortable with the fact that we're not going to go We're not going to we're almost certainly not going to know the results of the election on the day of, especially if that Georgia number remains where it is. Recall, last time around, nobody was able to officially call the election. What did you say five days in twenty twenty, there's gonna be some difference because it won't be as many
mail in ballots possibly and all of that. But you know, be comfortable with patients and be comfortable with just waiting for a lot of data, because that's just it looks like that's the direction that things are going that are going now, I.
Have not reconciled myself to that reality.
I'm not saying I'm not ready to yet already not preferable outcome.
But yeah, well.
Last time, I mean, if recollection serves sometime two am, three am, it became pretty clear that it was going to be Joe Biden. You know, that's when you started to get a you know, clear sense of Arizona, clear sense of Georgia, Pennsylvania like it.
But as you said, it took.
It took days before I think Fox News was the first to officially call it right.
Yes, and over a very questionable Arizona call.
Hey ended up being right.
They ended up being right. But that's like, that's like being right on Roulette being right.
But then obviously, I mean, this is the thing is when it's close, then it opens the window for Trump tried this last time. I don't think there's any reason we should expect him not to try this time again. If he is on the losing end of a close election, to do everything he can to go to the courts and come up the works and claim it's stolen, and then you know, they're already in a lot of ways setting the stage for that. So just buckle up, because here we go again.
Yeah, that's right. Be comfortable with ambiguity. That's where things stand as of right now. All right, let's get to Oprah, as Crystal said, and we'll review. So as you guys will remember, a Kama and Oprah set up a big campaign event, notably not an interview, although they tried to make it look a little bit like in interview. We had some of the choice moments of the event, which was basically scripted and mostly on teleprompter. From what we could see, Let's take a listen.
What is on your heart to say to the American people? As we have forty seven days until November fifth, what's on your heart? Well say to particularly those people who are still undecided or maybe indifferent or on the fence.
Still, we love our country of our country. I know we all do. That's why everybody's here right now. We love our country. We take pride in the privilege of being American, and this is a moment where we can and must come together as Americans, understanding we have so much more in common than what separates us. Let's come together with the character that we are so proud of about who we are, which is we are an optimistic people.
We are an optimistic people.
Americans by character are people who have dreams and ambitions and aspirations. We believe in what is possible, We believe in what can be, and we believe in fighting for that.
That's how we came into being because the people before us understood that one of the greatest expressions for the love of our country, one of the greatest expressions of patriotism, is to fight for the ideals of who we are, which includes freedom to make decisions about your own body, freedom to be safe from gun violence, freedom to have access to the ballot box, freedom to be who you are and just be, to love who you love openly and with pride, freedom to just.
Be, freedom to just be. It took a while to get there.
I mean, I think the main problem I have with a lot of these answers is that she always takes forever to actually get to anything about others, and it's not just like well in America and they're like the weird inflection.
Also, the hand gestures is very ricky.
Bobby asked to me, even though it was literally on a teleprompter. She knew the question that was there from photos that were from the background. I just couldn't believe that that's the best you can come up with. It reminds me of Dana Bash interviews. She's like, what's your Day one agenda? She's like, well, it's like takes forever to.
Get She always does the like she didn't do it in this answer, which I always liked.
Class it's like, A mean, it's like a meme. Now at this point, I grew up in a middle.
Class fan, but I have to tell you, I mean, it's it is wild to see. We talked earlier about how much her favorability reading has skyrocketed, and you know, I think she's trying to go for the like generic democrat vibe, and that's what this.
Answer feels like.
It's like, let me just throw on a bunch of Barack Obama esque buzzwords about like.
Unity and what unites this is greater than.
What divides us, and we fight and we have values and whatever, and just like put it all together and serve it out to you. And you know, that's that's kind of what the vibe she's going for. And so I think that you know that's consistent with the answer
she gave. It's also the sort of thing I don't know, for whatever reason, I think because Trump is so wild that now that she's the standard bearer and not Biden, it hits for people a little different because it does just feel like very sort of normal politicians speak, and.
It's like, for a decent.
Chunk of America, roughly fifty percent, they're like, yes, just give me something that's that sounds kind of normal, Like that's all I want, and that's what you know, that's the spot she's landing in.
Yeah, I don't know.
She did give at least an interesting one interesting answer on guns.
Let's take a listen, so powerful at the convention when you when you said you have guns?
No, at the debate.
At the debate, does a gun know that.
And getting shot?
Yes, yes, I hear that.
I hear that.
Probably should not have said that, but.
My staff would deal with that later.
Yeah, okay, all right, So you'll recall Kama said she was a gun owner. What was it during her d No, it was during the debate, That's what it was. And I actually doubted it. I was like, come on, But apparently people went back in check twenty fourteen.
So this is not a long stainer.
Yeah, I will say in the state of California, you know, if somebody breaks into your house and you do shoot them, good luck with the police because you've got some there's I believe they have a duty to retreat thing on their books. For those of you who are in self defense law, you know what I'm talking about. But anyways, there are two ways you could look at that one.
And I saw a lot of right wingers being like, look, she's losing so badly that she's trying to come after us in terms of shoot somebody who's breaking into your house. I don't think there was a lot of strategy behind that comment. I think it was just her trying to be quote hashtag relatable. I don't know what else to say about it.
Yeah, I saw a lot of right wingers sharing this too, and I was like, I don't think that this really is serving your cause that much, because, yeah, I mean, any if it's strategic at all.
Which I grew through, probably I don't think it will.
It's a play to like, see I'm not the like crazy liberal coastal elitist you think.
I am, Like I'm a gun owner, and I.
Like also wanted to fend my home, which is again very relatable sentiments.
So I don't know she pulls it off. I think she pulls it off.
I don't think so.
I think if you are familiar charming moment.
A California person saying that, oh I'm gonna prohoo you I, it's like, okay, then you know, good luck, you know, good.
Luck with the California More the thought she lives.
Good right, she lives in Washington, live ten times worse of a gun owning state.
Let's put the last one up there on this.
He's in the White House.
I don't think she's going to have to be worrying about her own self defense any That's another I think she's probably.
Going to be.
You know, a lot of these people were anti gun. We got a lot of security around them. What we've got here is new Fox News Howard University poll. This was actually another interesting moment from the interview about likely black voters in swing states. Has Kamala at eighty two, Donald Trump at twelve, undecided at five. That was where Trump was in twenty twenty. According to this Just again, this is one pole indicating is not quote unquote gaining
black votes. Here's the only reason that I do doubt that is that Trump's strength in the Sun Belt does indicate that he has got more strength amongst people who are minorities by definition because of the Georgia and the Arizona and Nevada electorates. So if you look at his gains in those states and actually where his tightest and worst states were relative to twenty twenty and twenty sixteen, it was in the wider states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
And in fact, some of the Crosstap polling where we have seen Kamala strength in some of the battleground states in the Upper Midwest have been because specifically of gains amongst white voters in much wider states on average than the rest.
So you take that for what it is.
But there was an interesting moment Emily and Ryan covered at the Kamal at the Black Journalist event where she's like, look, I'm not taking black votes for granted, and I mean, honestly you shouldn't, you know, looking again at the air Georgia strength, at the Trump strength in Arizona, and if we look again at those twenty twenty returns of Donald Trump, specifically in the Laredo and South Texas area among Hispanics, and then you put that on top of Nevada and Arizona,
you could see very clearly that there is some strength there for Trump amongst Latinos. And actually Kamala for example, is running Spanish only language adds on border security alongside Reuben Gego. So the difference in the national conversation compared to how they're trying is totally is totally separate from what it actually looks like at an executing level.
I think one thing you can definitely say, Joe Biden did obviously very well with black voters back in twenty twenty. Their support had waned visa VI Joe Biden. I think one thing that is very clear since Kamala Harris has become the standard bearer is that she has improved those numbers significantly. Is she all the way back to where Joe Biden was in say twenty twenty, You know this pole would indicate I've seen other polls that would indicate
that that's the case. Hard to say exactly, but you know, she is improving her margins with Black voters, with Latino voters certainly with younger voters as well. Over where Joe Biden was when he was in this race, not necessarily matching on all of those tables where he was in twenty twenty with a winning coalition. So it's something to keep an eye on, you know, as a question of whether that narrative about Trump winning over black voters may
have been overstated. You know, question Mark put a pin in it right now and will watch what develops with more polling.
Yeah, that's right.
All right, Well, let's get now to our conversation with an election forecaster. You've seen him before here on the show. As a reminder, this is going to be exclusive to our premium subscribers. Otherwise you guys can wait and you can watch it for free sometime later. But let's get him in here and let's talk.
So we also have some news about whether or not there is going to be another Kamala Harris versus Donald Trump debate. Kamala Harris has accepted a debate invitation. Let's put this up on the screen. She says she will gladly accept a second presidential debate on October twenty third. I hope Donald Trump will join me, He seemed to be at a rally. Less receptive to that. It's a CNN debate invitation. By the way, Fox News I think, had also invited them to a debate, but she specifically
accepted the CNN debate invitation. He seemed less amenable to doing another anywhere. Let's say, to listen to what he.
Had to say, and they would like just announce a little while ago, as that was coming off the plane, they would like to do another debate. Although good entertainment value, a lot of people say, do it. It's great entertainment. I've already done two, one with Cook at Joe Biden at CNN and the other one with Kamala on ABC. CNN was very fair. I thought Joe was driven out of the race. It was a coup, by the way,
but he was driven out of the race. And they've been widely criticized by the radical left lunatics for all of the fairness. They were very fair. In other words, they won't be fair again because they took a lot of abuse from the radical left. ABC was three on one, but I was given credit for having done a very very good job. I appreciate that we did a great job. It was three on one. The problem with another debate is that it's just too late. Voting has already started.
She's had her chance to do it with Fox. You know, Fox invited us on and I waited and waited, and they turned it down, and they turned it down. But now she wants to do a debate right before the election with CNN because she's losing badly. You know, it's like a fighter. She sees the pole, she sees what's happening. She's losing badly, but it's like a fighter who goes into the ring and gets knocked out. The first thing he says is I want to rematch.
I want to rematch, all right.
You know it's funny because he undercuts himself a little bit here by saying that CNN was like very fair to him, since this is the radical left is criticizing them for all the fairness.
That is what he says.
But this is another CNN debate invitation. So if they were so fair lost time, why not do another one? And it is kind of perplexing to me because I do feel like he would very likely improve his performance over last time.
He's clearly they've clearly.
The race is fifty to fifty he's got a very good shot at winning, right, but he also has very clearly failed to define her in a negative way. You know, her favorability rating has gone up a lot, and they have not really been able to dig that effectively. So it is another shot for him to sort of dirty her up. From her perspective too, I understand why she wants to do it again because it went really well for her last time, and she did get a bump of the polls after the debate, somewhat of a bump
in the polls after the debate. So if you do another one and you have a similar result, and you you know, draw him out and bait him in the way you did the first time around, you've got another chance to you know, get a little bit of a bump in the polls coming into election day. So, in my opinion, the logic for both of them, given how close the race is, is that they should have another debate, but it's looking unlikely given Trump's now repeated comments that he's not interested in one.
Absolutely, and I think Trump really should have done another debate because also, something we just talked about with our election forecast segment and previously was that most people who are swing voters. And I know this sounds anathema. They don't make up their mind until very shortly before the election in October twenty third debate would be good for Trump because that is when the country is dialed in.
I mean, these long campaigns, I know everybody is sick of them, but unless you are a real political animal, most people don't pay any attention until about statistically about three weeks before election day. So you want to have those I mean, those debates were scheduled there for a reason because that's when the most people were paying attention.
That's when the stakes started highest.
That's when you could confront the possibility of the October surprise and you get to respond and all that. And the problem for Trump right now is his overall like profile level is down. So for example, we're gonna talk a lot about this tomorrow, but looking at data just this morning that shows that the amount of rallies that he is doing today versus twenty sixteen significantly down. I mean I'm talking like orders of magnitude. So his ability
to take over the new cycle is different. He's not the novel character that he was in twenty twenty, at least he was the president and it was COVID, so people were glued to their phones. Right now, he's less in control of the cycle than it ever before. Now this actually could be to his advantage. So let me give the bowl case for what he's doing. The overall pulling. I'm looking out on splits say that people think Kamala is too liberal and they don't view Trump as too conservative.
I'm not saying that that is correct. I saying that's what people say.
So you don't want people to remember Trump in a recent light. You want to remember him in a fond like, Hey, gas prices were low under Trump, which.
Is growl glass.
Yeah, the more a recent New York Times polling the number one reason for Trump's strength and all the Sun Belt states, which are the most economically dynamic, is I felt like I was better off under Trump.
Then Trump today doesn't matter.
Kamalo is the only thing. He should remain a flashpoint. So I could make the case either way. But Trump is a very skilled debater. He's a good politician. I want him out there if I'm on his team.
Know.
Also leaving it to the last word now goes to JD and to Tim Wallace. Why would you ever want to give the last word to your vice presidential candidates?
Right?
That doesn't make any sense because it's not about you, right, you know.
And JD.
Van Pas of all the candidate, he has the lowest favorability ratings, so he's like, you know, the weakest part of your campaign to put out there. I mean, he's fine on cable news as an attack dog, but yeah, in terms of like actually winning people over for the campaign, that's a different story. I mean, I think in some ways we kind of overthink this with Trump. The rally data really points to it. I think he's just, you know, he's older, like as possible. He doesn't want to do
as much. Even his own aids in the.
Article about how is rallied a down and like, yeah, he wants.
To spend more time in mar A Lago. He just doesn't want to do him as much, you know, and look relatable. I'm sure, you know, especially given how old he is at this point. But I think that's a big part of it. The first one didn't go well, he got outside, you know, it directly counter to what he says about how Grady did and how she lost was you know, terrible for her.
Et cetera, et cetera.
The pulls overwhelmingly showed even among Republicans. Many Republicans also thought that he lost. The one part of it that came out of it that he thought apparently was a win, was like the Haitian pets thing, which at least made the news cycle into something that he had said. But this also did not end up being a positive or good story for him or something that you know, for him to focus on that moved the campaign forward. So yeah,
I think it didn't go well for me. He didn't enjoy the experience, and he just doesn't want to do it again. To me, it's kind of what it comes down to, because from a campaign logic rationale, unless you really are so convinced that it's going to go just as poorly for you second time around as it did the first time, it really doesn't make a lot of sense. So the other thing is, you know, Kmmin gets to say, she gets to look tough like Listen, I said I
would do it, and he won't do it. It really negates all the conversation, the very legitimate critique of her that you know, she still isn't really doing interviews. She isn't doing press of veils, et cetera. She was very closed off to the press.
Tim Walls, who can at.
Which I don't understand because I thought the whole reason you put this man on the ticket is because he's great on cable news. He's also been largely hidden from the press. But it really takes the focus on that because it gives the vibe of like, oh, well, she wants to go out there and engage in the democratic process.
He's the one who's hiding and doesn't want to do the debate.
So if I were her, I would also say, hey, yeah, we'll even do the Fox News debate if you want.
You know, I'm open to that as well.
I agree and.
Col is bluff because I think he's just set on I don't want to do anymore period, end of story. And we saw that in his Fox News interview where he was like, well, I don't want the Fox News moderators to be Martha or Brett. I would want him to be like Jesse Waters and Sean Hannity, which I.
Would call the Fox News bluff in particular.
Yea, because Brett Bayer and Martha mccowum, like, look, you can think what you want. Are they right leaning yet? But they're not bad. They've moderated a decent amount of debates.
They would do totally.
Yeah, they would do a fine enough job.
Look, I've seen Brett press Trump before, and Trump can get himself into actually some serious issues. So my point is that it would put him in Uh, it would rhetorically be a good move for her. Overall, this shows the weaknesses of both of these candidates. Is just all over the place. He does whatever he wants. But I always thin Kamala is very risk averse and only agreeing to this. So for example, you know, Tim Wallace has done less interviews than even Kamala Harris, Kamala is doing.
You know what she's done.
I believe two or three she's done, According to Axios, the least amount of interviews of any major candidate in modern American history. Trump at the very least does these press conferences, or he's you know, he's doing random stuff. Everyone's Sheryl Atkinson or whatever.
You know all this. Look, I'm not saying it's great, but it's something.
And they last her forty five minutes, and even when the interviewer is friendly, interesting stuff sometimes comes out of it.
I think she at the very least should be doing something like that.
But they're very, very risk averse, probably in an inheritance of the Biden team. I could be wrong, but overall this is bad for America and for because now the election will be litigated through proxies and.
Worse through ads.
Ads are a terrible way to experience politics.
Kamala Harris wants to you know, Dore's Donald Trump and JD. Vans where I destroy this country.
It's the worst possible way to actually engage with elections, and I think it leaves a lot more up to chance when you would have a lot more control.
Like we just spoke with Logan about.
You know, the reason that Kamala did well in the state of Pennsylvania relative to every other battleground state is because more people in Pennsylvania watched the debates than any other state. Per Kapita, there's a lesson in that risk and reward. That's what politics ultimately really is about. And right now, both of them are taking the most risk averse strategy.
Which is crazy because neither one of them can afford that. Yes, that's the thing I mean. I would say Kama is being very risk averse on the media. On the debates, she's being more bold, And I just cannot understand why they are not using Tim Waals as more of an asset on cable news, because that, again is like how he got the job.
She didn't really know him. He went out on.
Cable news, he said the weird thing. People loved it. They were like, you know, sharing all his clips. He was really great at it, you know, quick on his feet. Even when he got asked things that were a little bit challenging about his agenda being too liberal or whatever, he.
Was very he was very talent at it. So, okay, you've got this.
Asset on your side that you put on the ticket, Like, why are you hiding him? That part doesn't make any sense to me. Hiding her makes a little more sense to me because she can be more unsteady in these interviews. She's more of a cautious politician. She's more uncomfortable in unscripted settings. So far, they've done a really great job of protecting her from any moments that would be a train wreck from her. So I'm not saying it's good.
It's not good obviously for democracy. It's a terrible precedent to set. It's one that was in some ways already set by Biden back in twenty twenty when he did so little over the excuse of the pandemic. She's carrying that mantle forward and basically betting that she can get away with it. And it may be the correct bet, but the Tim Walls piece just strategically makes really no sense to me one hopever.
Yeah, the whole thing is very risk averse.
It's very much like I want to make sure that everything is very tightly controlled. The Oprah event is a good example. It's a fake interview and you don't particularly good, so.
You got to put yourself out there. We got to see what happens.
In general, it's bad for America and only have one debate, you know, on the issues, et cetera. The feedback actually, if you look at that debate, Crystal was for the Some of the independent voters who weren't swayed by Kamma were like, all I saw was performance and I didn't see substance. That's a lesson, you know, people are at Look, many people often lie about what they really want whenever it comes.
But I do believe them whatever they say.
I want to feel as if there is more substance behind them, whether they believe the substance or want any of that, right, it's very that's dubious.
I mean, but they did put like the literal performer in chief, Donald Trump into the White House, so the performance does sell.
Let's get to this.
North Carolina chased a lot of times here. This is a really wild one. So in the state of North Carolina, in addition to the presidential race, which is obviously hotly contested, they also are electing a new governor. Democrat Josh Stein is up against the current lieutenant governor, Republican Mark Robinson. Robinson has a history of quite crazy comments, including you know,
dabbling in Holocaust, nihilism and the like. However, CNN was able to unearth comments made by Robinson on a porn site for him called Nude Africa over a number of years. Now this was, you know, over a decade ago, so keep that in mind.
Perhaps he's shifted his views. But before I go.
Into them, just you know, I don't know about you. I am quite convinced that this was him. They caught cross checked off the email. He claims it's not him, it was he used his own name, disqualifying in and of itself. Okay, an email address that he's used in many other instances, you know, sort of publicly available email address.
It was a username.
Mini Soldier or something like that chat linked to him, which has been linked to him, that he's used also in the past.
They gave him opportunity to comment. He denied it. So we're presenting you all the facts, but his own How about this? The people who work for him, they believe it. Let's let's put that way, shall we.
Yes, all right, so let's put this up the screen. I'll give you some of the quote unquote highlights of what they found here. Headline is I'm a black Nazi. North Carolina GOP nominee for governor made dozens of disturbing comments on a porn forum. So in addition to saying I'm a black Nazi, he also said, quote slavery is not bad. Some people need to be slaves. I wish
they would bring slavery back. I would certainly buy a few. Also, with regards to Barack Obama, he said, I would take Hitler over any of the shit that's in Washington right now. Referring again to Barack Obama. Also with regards to former President Obama, he said, get that effing commie bastard off the National Mall. When he was you know, when they had first unveiled the new MLK junior statue of MLK himself, he said, quote, I'm not in the KKK. They don't let blacks join. If I was in the KKK, I
would have called trigger warning. This is a racial slur, Martin Lucifer Cohon Robinson posted on the site. There was also a lot of disturbing sexual material here, including him describing in great detail his quote own sexual arousal as an adult from the memory of secretly peeping on women in public gym showers as a fourteen year old. He described himself as a perv, and he also expressed enjoyment. This may be his biggest issue with the Republican base
of watching transgender porn. So those are some of the things that he posted there. I'm not going to read the next part. I'll just put it up on the screen. There were also elaborate fantasies that he went into great detail about about his wife's sister, his literal sister. In imagine being his wife, I imagine being his wife, Okay, we can take that down. Also, after the Internet got a hold of and different reporters got ahold of this username that he had apparently been using in all kinds
of different contexts, including on this porn forum. They found all kinds of things that this username was connected to, including it seems he took his black nazidom relatively seriously, because we can put this up on the screen. He was also signed up for German lessons on Duo Lingo using that username as well. I believe he also was in the Ashley Madison link leak with the which is a website to dedicate it to people.
Who want to cheat.
And have affairs, and so yeah, a lot there. This all came out, by the way, just to give a little bit of the backstory. Was it Friday that this all happened. Thursday or Friday? Yeah, I don't remember Thursday or Friday. Anyway, we got this indication that the Trump campaign was trying to talk him into dropping out of the race North Carolina obviously being critical. The ballot deadline for him to drop out was literally the night that
all of us dropped. So everyone was sitting around on Twitter waiting for this news to drop ALTI comes out and he has denied it again.
I think this is not.
The right direction to go in in terms of dealing with these comments like it is in my opinion obviously him and what would be a better approach would be to be like, oh, that was a long time ago and I was just trolling, like I was just being an Internet troll. Instead, he rather unbelievably denies that this is him whatsoever. Let's take a listen to what he has to say.
The people here of North Carolina know I have been completely transparent about my history, all the wards, and we put them all out. We let folks know about it. But the folks here also know my character, They know who I am, They know my voice, so to speak. This is not my voice. This is not things that we would ever say or even think, and so absolutely we do.
How do you explain all of the matching details on this profile? The profile on New to Africa lists your full name as Mark Robinson. The email listed on an account is an email that you used. You have used elsewhere on the Internet, including with your photo. You have used that name Mini Soldier on multiple social media accounts, including Twitter, Pinterest, Black planet and YouTube. How can you deny with all of these matching details that this is you.
Look, I'm not going to get into the venutia of how some might manufacture this dese selacious tabloid lies, but I can tell you this. There's been over one million dollars spent on me through AI by billionaire son who's bound and determined to destroy me. The things that people can do with the Internet now is incredible. But what I can tell you is this, again, these are not
my words. This is simply tabloid trash being used as a distraction from the substantive issues that the people of this day are facing.
So anyway, he did not drop out on the race. He is still in the race, although he has apparently three campaign staffers left everyone else designed.
Yeah, go ahead.
For the on screen, all right, just so we all understand, Robinson now won't appear at Trump's North Carolina rally. So from what I understand from the backstory is that this was all known during the primary, but Republicans decided not to drop it against him because Donald Trump endorsed him, and they were pretty they were pretty clear that Mark Robinson was going to become the eventual GOP nominee and
they didn't want it hurt. So this information has been out there amongst opposition researchers and others for quite a long time. Now you put that together with the fact that this comes out now before the deadline. It was actually it appears to have been Republicans who likely leaked this to try and force him off the ballot to salvage their chances. Robinson, of course, is such an ego maniac that he decided to stay in the race. Toronald Trump will no longer appear with him on the ballot.
And this is now in what is very likely a very significant and perhaps even the tipping point state. So for example, let's put this up there on the screen. Just look at where the polling average is right now for North Carolina Trump forty seven point.
Five, Harris forty seven point four. It could not be closer.
So we have i mean, Mostriano level event that is currently happening now at this overall, in this overall statewide election, and in a fifty to fifty race, let's say that he cost Trump even twenty thousand votes. I mean, Donald Trump only lost the state of Georgia by some ten thousand votes. Last time around, the margin of victory was only what fifty sixty thousand votes. I think over a couple of states. You just have to consider how close
this is. Something we also talked about with Logan, the election forecaster, was that this could also convince some Republicans to not come out to vote. It could be a depressive effect. So it could be there's a multi confluence of events here. I'm not saying Trump could still lose or Trump couldn't still win the state of North Carolina.
It's just that whenever it's fifty to fifty, we shouldn't be screwing around, you know, with the one of the most googled politicians now in all of the United States, people desperate for the lurid details and then coming up with bs excuses like oh it was Ai.
You know that is taking me out, Like you got to at least have something.
Bet I said.
I at least just say like, oh, I was just trolling, like you know, freedom of speech, like I was just being absurd, I would be.
You should just say, or more defensable.
Is a pastor? Is a pastor?
You should have said, is a pastor I've you know, like he's like I'm addicted to porn like many other young men, I've seen the lights.
Okay, but that does an excuse me saying black Nazi who wants to own slaves.
Look you say that carried away?
Yeah, I mean there is a bigger consistent problem here for Republicans, which is they have an extreme candidate issue. You know, you've got this guy here, You've got Carrie Lake out in Arizona who's very likely to lose that Senate seat to Reuben Diego. You know, last cycle you had in Mastrano who you referenced, you had herschel Walker, who now looks quite changed in comparison to you know, to this individual Mark Robinson.
So you you.
Also have a candidate quality issue where Republicans nominate people who have no prayer in hell of winning. Like a Republican goubernatorial candidate in North Carolina should be winning that state all day long, or at least didn't. Content doesn't sending Lieutenant governor right, you should at least be in contention, and instead the polls already have him down by double digits is probably only going to widen. I mean, you're talking about probably a Democratic victory for governor in that
state by like fifteen points. That's insane in North Carolina, all because of the dude that you nominated. So, I mean there's a deeper reckoning for the Republican Party where it's like, you know, some of the wild I'm not saying Trump has said anything like a a black nazy Okay, I'm not trying it, but some of the wilder things that Trump does say he can get away with and
other Canadates cannot get away with. So yeah, I don't know what turns that particular piece around for the Republican Party, but I'll tell you Democrats are running wild with this.
Trump had called him.
Trump had called Mark Robinson quote Martin Luther King on steroids, I.
Mean, is bigger? Is bigger than doctor K.
They've taken that clip and any other time that he endorsed him. Because prior to this incident, Robinson, in spite of other many insane things that he said in the past that are documented, they were you know, he was a regular.
At their campaign events. He was a speaker at the R and C.
It's not like they were keeping the sky at an arms length distance whatsoever. And so they're going to make as much out of that as they possibly can.
And you know, in the.
State of North Carolina, if it succeeds in knocking half a point off of Donald Trump, that maybe all that they need to be able to claim that state, and the map becomes very difficult for Trump if he loses North Carolina's.
That's why it's probably the most significant. And this is a statewide election. This is something where they could tie them together. Look, it is possible. You just don't want to be dealing with this nonsense whenever things are as tight as they are and you reference the aids. I mean, the guy who's running his campaign now is literally a convicted felon. Jack Bergman somebody who he's a lawyer. He was involved and a whole bunch of schemes has been indicted previously.
At the Daily Caller, we used to deal with.
Him for felony.
Yeah, I think it's something to do with that. But my point was is that I remember him. He used to run around with this other guy and they would often make major claims and do big press conferences and they got in big trouble with the feds, uh for basically shopping OPPO. Except the point is is that they're not sending their best to Mark Robinson's campaign. I'll put it that his top ays have resigned, his campaign manager. He's only got three people now that are left on staff.
That's another problem where very often there's like a there's a real work together effect in these tight races where the Trump campaign will work with the googlenatorial.
Campaign, co ordinated campaign.
Right, so you have a coordinated campaign, it's all about get out the vote, and now you lose statewide operations and people are going to go all in on Trump. But then now Robinson's name will be left off. So just overall, like we're not looking at we're not looking at things that are good right now for Donald Trump in the state of North Carolina.
This one took Washington by storm.
This is a difficult one unless you literally live here and you kind of know the characters.
But we will do our best.
So let's go and put this on definitely the talking to town.
Oh, this is the talk of the town. Let's put it up there on the screen. This is a scoop from Oliver Darcy. He started his own newsletter called Status. He says, R nuzzies RFK relationship.
Now.
According to Oliver Darcy, This was Thursday night. He put out a story. New York Magazine has said that's Washington correspondent Olivia Nuzzy is on leave after learning the Star journalist had allegedly engaged in an inappropriate relationship with the reporting subject. That person is RFK Junior, according to people are familiar with the matter. According to them, there had been a quote unquote personal relationship between the two, which, according to a Nuzzy and to RFK, never became an
intimate in person or into them. It was strictly online and restricted to the communications between the two. Now since that report, there has been more that has come out giving us some of the alleged details.
Let's put this up there on the screen.
The way that this all came out, according to New York Magazine, and again there's a lot of according tows going on here, is that RFK Junior, according to them, had either been quote bragging or telling people that he had quote unquote intimate photos of reporter Olivia Nuzzy. She's only thirty one, he's seventy years old. Those rumors got back to the editor of New York Magazine, who was actually in Europe, so how he had heard about it.
That's a very interesting story. So according to them, that's how it happened. In New York Magazine, editor in chief heard that RK Junior had been telling people this about this reporter Olivia Nuzzy. He then confronted Nuzzy. Nuzzy allegedly denied it multiple times until she then confirmed the relationships. She's been put on leave as they do a quote
unquote investigation. Hard to see how she isn't fired. Now if we moved to the next part, the basically the backs who is being pushed now by RFK and some of the people close to him.
Let's put the new posts please.
So according to them, quote unquote, Olivia Nuvevey was obsessed and pursued RFK Junior aggressively and he had to block her. This was according to one of these journalists who was very close to RFK Junior.
And she was literally kennedy. She related, I.
Was trying to figure that out. I didn't want to notice that.
According to them, what happened, basically, the RFK Junior story is that she hung out with r K Junior, that they did hiking trips. She wrote about it. She talked about why he was a formidable candidate. Apparently after that incident, she had his phone number. By the way, all of a sudden, his phone number. That's not like a you know, like a secret thing. Most reporters have sourced his phone numbers. She allegedly spammed him with nude photographs. RFK Junior blocked
Olivia Nuzzy. She then allegedly sent him an email saying that she had comment that she needed from him so that he would unblock her, and she then proceeded to bombard him with more nude images. Is obviously a convenience story for Urka Junior, who is married, but that is their narrative of events. Nuzzy, for her part, has not put out anything like trying to absolve herself or any of the transcript. People are noting that she did send this tweet in twenty fifteen. Let's put this up there
on the screen. Why does Hollywood think female reporters sleep with their sources. This was something that she wrote for New York magazine Help Cause, hero not helping the cause, Olivia Nuzzy.
I don't know. I guess there's a lot to say about this.
Well well, and she also did you mention this was engaged to Ryan Lizza.
I didn't want to bring him into a week I mean that engagement is now off anyway.
Just to complete the now. According to agree affair, the background is that.
Liza had previously been me tooed from New York. I think the New Yorker nobody ever got really the whole story. But he was fired, which was like very dramatic, and then after eventually ended up. I forget exactly where he ended up, but he resurfaced, he got himself a new job, and he'd been then with Olivia, and people were put into the Tawdrey kind of relationship there.
But the whole point is also another big where he runs political play.
Insider. So they were like a real Washington power couple. I guess beyond that, really what it is is not only like the nature of their relationship. According to them, they had broken up like a month or so before this entire story came out, So I don't know, I mean, beyond any of the personal stuff, I guess it just gets back to anytime something like this comes out in
the open, it's a disgusting look at Washington. It really is, like, look a lot of the stuff it happens and it doesn't actually come out and see the light of day. Probably the only reason it did is because Rfka Junior either couldn't give his mouth shup or allegedly the real story is that he was getting bombarded with this. But I mean he never complained, I guess to her bosses.
I don't know. The whole point is is messy and yeah it's gross and I don't know. Yahay.
Let me take you through my emotional journey on this story. Okay, So, first of all, Kyle actually woke me up from a dead sweep to inform me with this news act.
I woke my wife up in the morning six am, I.
Guess, And when I chudged it the level of difficulty my brain had come run the words that were coming out of his mouth. I wish you all could could understand. So my first gut instinct, of course, was like Jesus, she's like thirty years I seven, Like what why would you do? Like, you know, just sort of shock and
kind of horror at the details here. As this story has progressed and we've learned more details, especially the fact he was bragging about this, Like, my emotions shifted to a lot of sympathy for her, not to excuse you know, sleeping with a source or having a digital affair. They say,
with a source or whatever. It's obviously unethical. I'm also sure it's something that like a lot of people in this town are engaged in, which is again your your point about like a little look into the way that a lot of this town this is the opt.
Case, but there are a lot of people who do this.
Yeah, So anyway, my emotions have really shifted to a lot of sympathy for her because one thing, if you are here like this is all anyone's talking about, ripping her to shreds, you know, saying all kinds of horrific things about her, et cetera, et cetera. But more to the point, like if you believe him that she was obsessed in just spamming him with nude pictures, like I have a bridge to sell you.
This man is ann he used to have in his phone.
Some thirty eight mistresses while he was with his ex wife who ended up killing herself, by the way, So we're supposed to believe that she was so obsessed with the seven year old man that she was spamming him nudes and he you know, and he was having to.
Blog, I do not buy it.
He has a wife, he doesn't want her to leave him, and so that's why, very likely why he's saying what he's saying. The other thing is, there's nothing that discuss me more than a man who goes around bragging about his sexual exploits and specifically bragging about the like nude image of his girlfriend or his fling or his whoever, especially and we don't know that this is the case, but especially when they share said images around with their buddies. There is nothing. There are a few things to me
that are more disgusting than that. So that sequence of events has completely shifted me to like just sympathy for Olivia. Again, it was unethical. I'm not excusing the behavior. It was perplexing. It was, in my opinion, like a lot of things. But yeah, the response to it has been disturbing to me as a.
Well okay, well let's put it. Yeah, let's put so. The online reaction, I agree, is out of control.
It's out of control.
Needs to get fired. I mean, this is out of control behavior. This is completely inexcusable. It's look, you're you're, you are irresponsible for the consequences of your actions on RFK.
Look, I have no idea.
I guess what the what would the kopey that he wasn't bragging he was telling people about it, irl what he should have done, and I don't know what exactly the case is is go to the and be like if this were true, right, so is be like, go to the bosses and be like, hey, your employee is totally out of control, and this is what's happening. And that's part of the reason I'm sketched out is because anybody who legitimately was like a target of being constantly
bombarded would want to do something like that. Now here's my challenge to both of the parties. At this point, I'm sick.
Of reading the background.
Release the transcript, but blur out the images, all right, delete them. I don't nobody cares about the images at this point. I want to see whether somebody was blocked, what the actual correspondence and all that was. And at this point, for Nuzzy, I mean, you have only yourself to save here where you're being in the tabloids, people are saying that you were the one who was bombarding RFK with all of this, So Gavin de Becker is
currently quote unquote running the investigation. Something he did last time around, at least with the Jeff Bezos case, is they released all of the communications between when Bezos was caught like sending images. I'll just put it that way to his current what is it fiance, Lauren Sanchez, it appeared to have been leaked by Lawrence's brother Michael. Crazy
story in terms of that background. The point is that Becker released like all of the background with Jeff Bezos, where Bezos was like, screw you, I'm not paying any blackmail you could see here for all the world to see. I think they do need to release it now at this point, one of them, because really is the only way you could save like any sort of any sort of credibility on this matter. But for Nazzi, I mean, I think she's done.
Like I don't. I don't think he can come back from this one. That's it.
Well, I think she's done at this current job. Can she come back over time?
Sure?
She's very young, talented, she is a talented writer. I read her profile of RFK. It was great, No, it was good, it was really good. She also wrote a good piece. But look, nobody's saying that you're not.
Here's the other thing. Here's the other thing.
Of course, here's the other thing that's pissing me off, though, is that this has also led to a bunch of like Biden dead enders. She wrote, I don't know if you guys remember those, but we read it.
We probably cover on the show.
She wrote one of the definitive accounts of Biden's decline that had a lot of inside the circle details about how donors were like seeing him in person and horrified by how he was unable to function essentially, and now you've got a lot of Biden dead enders who are like, oh, you know, we should look again at this, at this article, and basically dismiss it as being biased, etc. If anything, the only problem with that article was how late it came in the game after it was already very clear
that that declined the camp.
It came out after the debate, and yeah, it's clear that they held it and they had all that reporting prior and they didn't run right.
That was the only problem with that. It wasn't that she was too hard on Biden. It was that she went too easy on it. That it should have come out much earlier so that it could better inform the electorate about what was really going on behind the scenes.
So that was fisting me off. So is she done?
I mean, I don't know, a lot of people have been able to come back from a lot of terrible things.
Is she probably done in this job yet? Should she be? Yeah? I mean you can't, like, you just can't. You can't.
You can't connect yourself, connect yourself like this with the source, with a you know, a reporting someone you're reporting directly on, etcetera, etcetera.
But in terms of the reaction, and I.
Just his his science story, I'm sorry, I just don't.
I just don't believe.
And I think it's to release a transcript.
I think it's disgusting that he was out there like bragging about this. If he was really under like you said, so right, if he's really under such assault by this woman who oh my god, poor me, she's spamming me nudes?
Then like, are you okay? Are you are you doing all right?
I'll tell you why this is sad. This is you know, he's married to Cheryl Hines. I love Cheryl Hines from your enthusiasm. So first of all, we feel terrible for Cheryl, right, that's humiliating. Yet she doesn't deserve this. I feel bad for Ryan Lizza as well. You know these are now we've had two basically relationships that are now either you know, broken and and or like significantly stressed. So let this just be you know, like the major thing, like be faithful.
To your spouse.
Just don't put people through this, especially when you're in the public eye, because it's really people don't deserve this, you know, they're outside actors. And now for her own career, it's really sad because I think she was very talented, but this will just be the scarlet letter, you know, for all time.
Especially Lizza, like you said, you have me too thing. He's recovered. I don't even remember his scandal. I don't remember it.
Yeah, but enough people do, and especially for her, Like in terms of it's one thing. It's one thing to like have a me too scandal with somebody, with somebody who's not a subject of major reporting, But to do it with a presidential candidate and be involved with them at the height of the at the height of like all of the attention around it, that just does code a little bit different.
I don't know if that's I don't know.
All I'm saying.
I'm seeing people recover from a lot worse. And listen, maybe I mean, look, maybe there is a gender dynamic here where because she's a woman, like it hangs.
Over her more heavily.
The label of like, you know, oh, you're a slut who just is going to sleep around with your sources or whatever. Maybe that does hang over her more heavily. But the last thing I just have to open on is I don't know if I buy that it wasn't physical. He also was caught lying already about he said, oh I only met her that once for the profile, and then she wrote a hit piece on me.
That wasn't true.
They definitely have been in you know, at events together and other you know, professional or potentially private settings together, so that already he's been caught in a lie. I don't know if I believe that it wasn't actually physical, that it was just digital. But in some ways like having a digital relationship.
He's kind of crazier to me. But I don't know. Listen, people.
Advertisement for TRT seven years old, but a young man on.
All right, let's get all right, let's actually the hardest turn of all time, because we are now at a point of you know, escalating chaos in the Middle East. We of course tracked last week how Israel was able to blow up the pagers and then the walkie talk of a lot of HESBLA members, and then you know, there was huge collateral damage. There were children who were killed, people were public market places, etc. Then they started the out and out bombing campaign.
And now we are.
Getting incredibly deeply disturbing indications that Israel plans an all out assault on at least a portion of Lebanon, somewhat akin to what has already been done to Gaza. Here is Army Chief of Staff Daniel Hagari effectively threatening all of the civilians, building the case that inside of homes and other civilian infrastructure in Lebanon, that these are legitimate
military targets. Again, sounds very familiar to the case that was made in Gaza in order to justify blowing up homes, schools, hospitals, mosques and everything in between. Let's take a listen to a bit of what he had to.
Say about an hour ago, following indications that Risbala was preparing to fire towards Israeli territory. We began striking terrorist targets throughout Lebanon. That ris Bala terist organization has been continuously launching attacks on Israeli civilians and has no plans to stop. This is thousand Lebanon. There are dozens of Lebanese villages situated along approximately eighty kilometers of the border with Israel. For over twenty years, Risbala has deployed its
arms inside homes and militarized civilian infrastructure. As a result that his Balatarist organization has turned southern Lebanon into a bottlefield. This is a village in southern Lebanon. Riz Bala stores cruise missiles, rockets, launchers and UAVs inside civilian homes, hidden behind the Lebanese population living in the village. We are monitoring these activities, locating the weapons and destroying them with precise intelligence based strikes.
And sure enough, this morning I'm looking at the New York Times right now they say scores at least one hundred people killed in southern Lebanon after Israel has begun a massive bombardment. We have some images from over the weekend that show you the size and the scale of this military operation.
I mean, this is a huge.
Blast that's depicted here, and we also have some images of a residential apartment building that was utterly demolished and leveled in this bombing campaign. According to reports over the weekend, they hummel southern Lebanon with strikes on about four hundred
different targets. HESWLA is responding with some rocket attacks as well, although largely theirs have been disrupted by the Iron Defense Iron Dome Defense missile defense system, so you know, effectively they're threatening to do in Lebanon what they did in Gaza. Civilians have been told to evacuate the area and the rhetoric that is being used is deeply disturbing. Let's put this next piece up on the screen. This is a voiceover. I'll just give you a sense of what the Israeli
Education Minister is saying on This is channel fourteen. This is sort of like their Fox News ish propaganda channel. He says, quote, there's no difference between Hesbola and Lebanon. Lebanon will be annihilated, it will cease to exist.
Again.
This isn't some random fringe figure. This is an Israeli minister, member of the government how did we get to this place of fresh horror. Well, let's put the next piece up on the screen. By an administration who they're extremely concerned about this risk of all out war, but are they going to do anything. No, Israel officials are telling them that they're increasing attacks against HESBLA are not intended to lead to war, but are an attempt to reach
de escalation through escalation. Obviously, that is the most preposters from an Axios report. By the way, this is the most preposterous idea you could possibly imagine.
As well.
Was not involved in the October seventh the tacks. They've made it very clear that if there is a ceasefire deal that ends the hostilities and returns the hostages, that their bombardment, you know, the rockets that they've been firing into northern Israel would stop. And yet, because of Bebe's determination from the beginning to broaden this war and the Biden administration's failure to stop it by using any sort of leverage, here we are with the region just continuing to spiral.
Soccer.
Yeah, it's actually very terrifying.
I mean, this is probably the closest that we are just yet now currently as of this morning, it just says we don't have an official number of.
What the death toll.
I do love all of this escalator, de escalation, through escalation, anytime anybody is selling you that they are selling you a bridge, and that currently I mean really, what stands out to me is the complete vacuum of US leadership. Our president is literally dementia ridden, unable to accomplish anything in the Middle East. Our Secretary of State is effectively a nobody throughout this entire thing. Israel did not clear any of its pager gambit with the United States with
its intelligence. Lebanon currently and Hesbola are responding and whatever the way they see fit. The Iranians are very involved in the Israelis are just doing whatever they want to do. There are no checks on this entire system now, and we're the ones who are going to pay the bill. Like, let's all be very clear about what this means. Who do you think funds ironedome US? Who do you think responded to those Iran attacks?
US?
Whose aircraft carriers are the ones they're securing any piece whatever is left in the region US. If this goes big, Israel will suffer for dramatic I'm not saying they won't win. They probably will because they have a lot enough, they have a lot more firepower, but the amount of casualties they will suffer in a war with Hasboula will be ten to one hundred times what they experienced in Gaza.
Hezbola is a very sharp and paramilitary force. They have much more Iranian backing, they have much better and sophisticated technology, as evidence by the fact they've been penetrated Iron Dome, and they've got more regional actors and others on their side, as evidence by the fact that the Israelis take them much more seriously, and the two thousand and six war still as a very black mark on the IDF that they have always had to deal with for the domestic
populace and its confidence in its military. So you can be rest assured, not only would we have to spend a ton more money, the likelihood of US getting involved here I think would be almost tenfold relative to what
happened with Gaza. And that is something that I'm genuinely terrified by, because if they're running out of weapons, just dropping jade ams basis civilian population with no ability to choose back, what does it look like whenever you actually hit the fire, not a peer military, but definitely a much more respectable fighting force.
That is something I worry a lot about.
So Haretz estimates that there have been one hundred and eighty two killed in Lebanon in these new attacks, and hundreds wounded in retaliation. You now had thirty five rockets fired by Hesbela at Israel's at military targets in Israel's north. Again, this mostly is intercepted by the missile defense system Iron Dome.
So I don't know.
That there were any Israeli deaths, but you know, at the same time, we can't lose sight of the offensive in Gaza continues. They just bombed a school turned shelter with dozens killed there as well. They're floating a new plan to once again fully evacuate Gaza City, which, if you guys will recall back we're almost a year, we've almost come to a year anniversary, and back at the beginning of their onslaught, Gaza City was the first target
ever was forced to evacuate. Then they you know, slowly moved south that destroyed everything in the entire Godza strip. Now you have some people who have come back north, and now they're threatening to evacuate them all again and say, oh, if you don't leave, then you're a legitimate military target. We're gonna kill everyone who remains. This is what's being floated right now. So it's just so dark that the Biden administration has completely given up on a ceasefire. There
is not even a prospect on the table anymore. You know, Bebe has sustained at this point, He's much more popular now. I mean, he's recovered his popularity at this point and seems to have withstood the you know, the continued protests moving. I'm not saying that there aren't still protests that are quite heated ongoing, but he seems to have withstood a lot of that, and there's just no end in sight.
There is no peaceful coexistence anywhere in sight. And we have spent a lot of time here talking about potential day after quote unquote that what day after?
There is no day after? This is this is the plan.
Like what we're looking at is just continued continued bombing, continued bombardment, continued slaughter, all of that. It's just indefinite in perpetuity that as far as I can see, is the plan there to have no day after that is the plan. And obviously, you know, the Israelis bear responses. Is Raeli government bears responsibility for the war crimes that they have committed, but we also bear a lot of responsibility.
We're the ones that are tax dollari go on to ship these weapons that are being dropped now on civilians in Lebanon and being dropped in Gaza. And you know, the West Bank has been invaded as well, and our political leadership has just decided that it's too hard to force Israel to stop, so they're just gonna allow to keep going.
Yeah, I read now the US has directly warned Israel against opening a full blown war with Hesbola. This is from the Financial Times.
I mean they already like it's already over, it's done. The full blown is here.
Now.
We don't have a ground invasion yet, yes, hopefully, yeah, but.
Uh and not just again.
From the beginning post October seventh, one of the very early on and consistently stated objectives of the Biden administration was to keep this from spiraling in a wider war.
Now it's been a wider war for quite a while now, but this.
Is another big, big step. Your policy failed. Like you are complete and utter failure on a moral level, on American strategic interest level, on a just like level of humiliation and impotence. You are a total and complete failure. And now apparently you've just given up. You know, we're never going to get anything more than those like, oh he's spoken difficult. Yeah, he had a tough conversation with baby. Who fucking cares? Like who cares? It does not It
obviously does not matter. And then at a certain point you have to say, like, if the strategy has been deployed consistently over all these months and you know the result it's going to get, then at some point you're like, okay, well you're just you're just lying that you have a different objective than BB. You have to be, because you can't be so stupid as to not expect exactly the result that we're getting here. So it's you know, it's
incredibly dark. It's incredibly dark, and I think from the side of the of Hamas of Sinowar at all, they feel like they, you know, are willing to bear the cost of tens of thousands of Palestinians who have now been killed potentially even up to you know, one hundred thousand who have been killed, according to some estimates, buried under the rubble, life, made unlivable, communicable diseases, all the rest. And they think they can outlast the Israelis, and that,
you know, if there's enough of a security. They've sort of breached the security status quo in Israel where they no longer feel safe and they believe that they can sort of outlast the Israelis. And it's like, you know, it's it's just death and horror, death and horror. As far as you can say, that's unfortunate, only the grim picture we have this morning.
Yep, all right, thank you guys so much for watching. We appreciate it. We'll keep everybody updated. As a reminder, we've got that exclusive election content from our premium subscribers, Breakingpoints dot Com.
Otherwise, we'll see you all tomorrow