Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here, and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of ways we can up our game for this critical election.
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We are focusing one on the Big Debate from last night and also on the Trump Tucker interviews. So we're going to have all the highlights soccer and I's winners and losers. We're going to give you the highlights also from that Tucker Trump interview. Do we think that he made the right call by skipping the debate. We're going to bring Emily and Kyle in. I'm sure they're going to mix it up on some various things as well. And give their takes on how all of this broke down,
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to the big debate. Last night, we had eight Republic contenders on the stage and one very notable absence, which was, of course, former President Trump decided to do an interview with Tucker Carlson that was released on x We'll get to that in a bit, but for now, let's just focus on what happened at the Republican debate. First of all, let's put this up on the screen.
This is just a.
Graphic showing you total talk time, so you can see who kind of dominated the night. Coming in first. I was actually a little bit surprised by this. Mike Pence, the former Vice president, of course, came in first in terms of talk time at twelve minutes and twenty six seconds. It's also amazing how little that actually is.
Funny thing about it.
But anyway, Vivek Ramaswami, who had I think, by anyone's measure, a huge night last night, we'll talk more about that. He came in second at eleven minutes and thirty eight seconds, just edging out former New Jersey Governor Chris Christy at eleven minutes and thirty seven seconds. Ron DeSantis was next ten minutes and one second, Nikki Haley at just over eight minutes, Tim Scott at roughly eight minutes, Doug burgham seven minutes, and fifty seconds, Doug showing up in spite of Achilles terror.
I think it was he suffered an injury actually.
Playing pickup basketball the same day as the debate, and then former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson coming in last in terms of debate talk time at seven minutes.
And twenty four seconds.
But in a lot of ways, you know, the big story of the night, which we, I guess have to pat ourselves on the back for predicting ahead of time, was vivig Ramaswami.
He took lots of incoming.
I was surprised how much he was the center of attacks from Mike Pence.
Seemed to just viscerally despise him.
It sort of reminded me of the way that Amy Klobashar in twenty twenty just viscerally despised Pete Bootages. There was a similar energy there. But it wasn't just him. Chris Christie came after him. There were some really spicy exchanges between himself and Nikki Haley. And I think just by being the center of attention and also being quite aggressive and you know, really showing himself as a fighter, etcetera, etcetera,
I think he did himself a lot of good. We'll get into more specifically about that, but to give you a taste of some of the attacks that were coming his way and how he parried them. Let's take a listen to This was one of their I think the earliest attack on him. This was coming from former Vice President Mike Pence.
Take a listen.
Balanced budgets and cut taxes when I was governor. I mean, look, Joe Biden has weakened this country at home and abroad. Now is not the time for on the job training. We don't need to bring in a rookie, we don't need to bring in people without experience.
So yeah, what do you think of that?
Zara?
I mean, it was surprising how much he was the center of everyone's attacks and Ron de Santis really didn't take incoming from anyone.
Actually, preview for everybody who's watching tonight, I mean, we are today we are going to just be talking about the vike Ramaswami because they were the ones who couldn't stop talking about him. It's just amazing. It was a hit from Mike Pence, it was a hit from Nicki Haley, it was a hit from Ron De Santis. A little bit, I guess whenever it came on some questions, but all across the stage with Chris Christy, it was obvious that
they viscerally hated him. I think that they really got on to their skin with one particular moment very on early on, when he said quote, I'm the only person on the stage that's not bought and paid for.
They got very upset.
That's when Christy called him a chat gpt and landed one.
Of his first blows.
But really where Vivik stood out to me is I wasn't just looking in terms of the speaking time, which is a huge win.
I wasn't even just.
Looking at the fact that he's outpulling all these established politicians and then they're all attacking and making him the complete center of attention. It was also how he was out foxing them on Trump, because let's be honest, this was a race really for number two. And on the Trump question, it's obvious that he was the one most vociferously defending Trump. That is going to get him brownie
points with Trump. It's going to get brownie points with the Magabase, and it's especially going to be allow him to help consolidate at least I think of solid number two position, which is coming to hear. We have some examples of that on the Trump question, both Ramaswami in terms of his defense, but also just give you a taste of how he did kind of stand out from the rest of the crowd on this Trump question when Chris Christy and others were departing from that concer.
Let's take a listen.
If former President Trump is convicted in a court of law, would you still support him as your party's choice. Please raise your hand if.
You would, whether or not you believe that the criminal charges are right or wrong. The conduct is beneath the office of president of the United States, and and you know this is the great thing about this country. Booing is allowed, but it doesn't change the truth. It doesn't change the truth.
That was an important moment. Ramasan was the first person to put his hand up. There was also an exchange that happened there where Viviik was attacking Christy on his support for Trump, kept calling him an MSNBC contributor, which I think was a pretty potent blow for a lot of people in the GA audience. I noticed it not only in terms of the defense there, but he has the line, which he said here on the show, president Trump was the.
Best president of the twenty first century.
I mean, I haven't been that many presidents in the twenty first century, but it's a good line.
I think.
Nonetheless, really what I took away from it is like he was one of those where he's not really running against Trump. He was effectively was trying to run against everybody else on the stage by kind of moving past them and putting him in a pretty solid position.
And I think that's.
Really where he was both able to drive everybody crazy, become the center of attention, and then also capture I'm not going to say that he's going to bring MAGA people over to him, but what we have critically seen is that even those who don't support Trump as their first choice, most Republicans, they like Trump. The vast majority do have a deep amount of affection for him. Those who don't they're Christie people, but that's already been consolidated.
That's what four or five percent of the overall base.
So depending on the state, but yeah, yeah, you're.
Right, depending on the straight but I mean, overall, I think it was that that was a good glimpse into both how he was being attacked, and also how he was able to make sure that he was always really on the side of Trump, of maga, of that agenda, and he's you know, he's been cultivating as well a lot of the online maga people out there. It's interesting, you know, the people who are the most defensive of Trump all had nothing but good things to say about Ramaswami.
I think it's because of exactly like moments like that.
Yeah, I mean, throughout the night, Chris Christie really served as the heel. Yes, from the moment he walked down on the stage he got booted. Asa Hutchinson, who also second to Christy, has been the most directly critical of Trump. I would say he also had a smattering of booths to the extent that, you know, people were really aware of who he is and what he's been saying. But
Chris Christie really leaned into that role. You know, I didn't think normally, I think Chris Christie's very talented debater. I thought it was pretty off last night. He had a couple of moments, but by and large, he seemed off his game, a little unsteady on his feet, a little bit hesitant or nervous, so not a great night
for him, not that I expected. Even if he did really mount and effective of like you know, going after vi Vake or going after Ronda Santas or going after Trump, I just didn't have a lot of confidence that it would matter with a Republican primary base where he already has the lowest favorability. So to the extent that he was going after Vivike, it probably only really serve Avic because he's so I hated by so much of the audience that was in the room. So he really served
in the role of the heel. Ronda Santis will talk a bit more about him, but you know, when you can trust his strategy with the vag strategy vi Vic either out of savviness or because he wasn't really from the beginning playing to be the presidential nominee, but more to elevate his profile, potentially end up in a cabinet role, potentially get a media gig or whatever. Vivek has never
been trying to supplant Trump. He's always been trying to position himself as like the top alternative DeSantis at this point, I think you can say deluded himself into thinking that he really could come for Donald Trump and supplant him as the number one, and I don't think that's going
to work out. I mean, I think that for all of these you know, gentlemen and Nikki Haley that were on the stage last night, the best they can hope for is be the top alternative in case something happens with Trump that pushes him out of the race or you know, really land some sort of a political blow on him where he falls precipitously in a way that we have literally never seen before since he's been on
the national stage in twenty fifteen. So I think I think DeSantis's strategy didn't work out that well for him last night, even though he had a solid debaper, like, he didn't.
Do anything fine wrong, you did fine.
But the fact that you had Vivek taking up so much of the oxygen, absorbing so many of the fights and pairying, you know, really mixing it up and you know, pairing well with everybody else, I think it, you know it. I think it actually ends up being a bad night for Ron DeSantis, even though he handled himself on the you know, on the sort of like superficial level perfectly.
Fine.
We're going to talk more about this in the winners and losers. Yeah, I would say I think he did fine. I think it kind of floated above of the morass. He took some he had some decent enough moments, and it's clear the moderators were giving him really good softballs. He got the most stupid fastball softball I've ever seen in my life at the top where they were like, why is Richmond north of Richmond popular governor?
I'm like, are you kidding?
The opening question was so atrocious. Yeah, it was horrible, horriblerible.
It s took eighteen minutes to even get to the first bringing questions.
There's got so many things I could say about the foxt question, which I think was so bad throughout the entire night, but let's put that aside. Yeah, one moment I did appreciate, and what I loved was the abortion section because there was an actual debate, there was actual disagreement Mike Pence versus Nikki Haley on the prospect of abortion and the national abortion ban, multiple of the candidates
also weighing in. We cut a little bit of that section because it's just so politically important to how these candidates are gonna do, are are going to like use this issue in the twenty twenty four election, whether they're stomping for Trump or whether they are the nominees themselves.
Let's take a listen.
Honest with you, Nikki, you're my friend. But consensus is the opposite of leadership. When the Supreme Court returned this question to the American people, they didn't just send it to the states only. It's not a state's only issue. It's a moral issue.
So first of all, I will say it is in the hands of the people, and that's where it should be. But well, when you're talking about a federal ban, be honest with the American people. We haven't had forty five pro life senators in over one hundred years. So no Republican president can ban abortions anymore than a Democrat president can ban all those states. Wells, don't make women feel like they have to decide on this issue when you know we don't have sixty Senate votes in the House.
Seventy percent of the American people support legislation, but abortion.
Experiencing pack, Well, there you go.
That's what it all came down to. And I was very rhetorically interesting. I was watching this very close. Yeah, every single one of them had nothing to say about the bands, and all of them had a lot to say about late term abortion. Late term abortion pivot. That something that Trump has been doing a lot himself. But I did think it was an interesting question around political realism. So he had Tim Scott says, I fight on the side of life. I would sign a fifteen week ban.
Ron DeSantis totally miffed the question on six weeks. He refused to commit himself.
He looked very pronswer the same band that he signed in the state of Florida.
He did not say that he would sign that. On a national level. That drew a little bit of the ire of Mike Pence. But Haley was the first one critically who actually laid out the position around late term abortion. And she also was talking about, you know, some of the kookier stuff out there about criminal imprisoning women or whatever for abortions. I thought it was actually one of
the stronger moments for her. And we'll get into that into the winners and loser section, but the fight itself is so critically important for how these candidates are thinking about this issue. Yeah, and also about Pence as long as he's on the debate stays abortion is going to be the cudgel that he uses to hit every single other person on there, both because he really believes it and because that's where a lot of his evangelical support comes.
You know, I thought Nikki Haley.
I was surprised, actually, because she tends to be one who really parts and gives the politician answers, not just on abortion, also on Ukraine. There are a few places where, even though it's possible that she's actually getting crosswise of certainly some portions of the GOP base with her answers, she was very direct, she wasn't afraid to mix it up, and frankly, I was surprised. She really exceeded my expectations. And you know, she stands out as the only woman
on the stage as well. Mike Pence, even though they're going at each other in this exchange, I actually think they both did themselves some favors here because Mike Pence very clearly and very directly wanted to wear that mantle of I will be the most committed pro life candidate, most committed pro life president, and for the part of the Republican base for whom that is the number one issue I think they'd have to come away feeling like Mike Pence was their guy.
You know.
Overall, Pence obviously has issues with the Republican base, given they still majority of them still by the stop the steal stuff. Many of them think he should have, you know, done whatever Trump wanted him to do on January.
Sixth, et cetera.
But I will say he stood up there with a lot of confident. He ended up dominating in terms of coming in first in terms of the talk time. So you know, I thought he did fine up there last night and was clear about where he stands. And I don't think that Mike Pence is for every GOP voters, but he probably solidified the group that was already inclined
towards him and lignes up with his ideological view. He very much held down that like traditional Reagan, pro life conservative lane, almost like a throwback kind of a candidate. He really, I think, sort of like quartered that market in terms of stage. And that's to the detriment of like a Tim Scott, who we haven't even talked about yet, who very much fits that same model ideologically. And it's not like Tim Scott was like a disaster.
He was just kind of he was fine.
He was fine, but because you had another candidate up there who occupied the space more fully and was more forceful and was willing to get into these fights and tussles, et cetera. We predicted ahead of time. Debates are not really the best forum for Tim Scott his whole political personalities, just being like, you know, this affable guy and people who work with them like him, and donors like him
and whatever. But when you're talking about trying to mix it up and give those vibes that the Republican base are in love with, that, I think Vaveik really cornered the market on the vibes last night.
It just wasn't the form for Tim Scott.
I agree with you. I think that in terms of that Lane Pence had the best.
Clearly the donors were loving him from color from inside the room. Was that a lot of the donors that you can hear any of the shouts you can hear on TV absent like a really cookoff in this one is the GOP gives its big Republican donors like the top seats. That's part of the reason why I remember Trump was getting booed at the twenty fifteen debates, even though the base was absolutely loving it. So some of Pence's big moments came from a lot of the donor
support in the room. And I actually expect him to get a second look from some of the billionaire class people like Larry Ellison, who are backing Tim Scott after Tim Scott's performance. It really wasn't that good. Scott's got a very good record with a lot of the billionaire donors who have basically been frontloading a lot of his campaign and of his super pack. I expect Pence to and I wouldn't say corner the market, but Tim Scott he just didn't have a good night. He didn't have
the pop that I think he needed to. Yeah, all of this is probably a good segue into our Winners and losers.
You well, I have two.
More thoughts that I want to let before we jump into open ours losers. Just thinking sort of more macro about the debate. A couple things that I noted. First of all, some of the ideological divides in the current GOP were on display. We're going to show you a little bit of Ukraine in a minute. We just showed you abortion. Obviously you're trying to figure out how to negotiate this issue which has become politically devastating for the party.
An area where you didn't hear.
Any of the potential new tension within the party was on economics. I mean, the opening question was really the only one that actually focused on economics. They framed it more around like Biden and inflation, and every single candidate who took the question sounded like Paul Ryan. They're all like railing about the debt and arguing about who built up the debt more, and arguing about who's more committed.
To fiscal austerity.
There were no questions about, all right, who's going to preserve entitlements, who's going to cut entitlements, et cetera. So there was none of that put Henschel disagreement on economics that was really on display. And in fact, economics were not that much of a focus of the night whatsoever. It's not that it wasn't mentioned at all, but it
wasn't that much of a focus. Yes, the other thing that I really noted Sager is Rond de Santis and viag Ramaswami both when they launched their campaign, they were all in on anti wokeness they really thought that was the space to occupy. Rond de Santis, Florida's Where Wokeness Goes to Die vag basically launches this presidential campaign and his media career by writing the Anti Woke Inc.
Woke Inc.
What was it?
Woking?
Book?
And when he first was talking, remember of Saga. We watched his initial appearance and it was all about like ESG and CRT and wokeness, et cetera.
Did anyone say the word woke?
So I'm I believe that the word wokeness was not said once and that amazing. Fudes on a question about trans girls and sports, right, So that's and.
It includes on questions about education, which was you know, Ronda Santis's bread and butter, and he got pitched that question. He didn't even say the word wokeness, So I mean, did he mentioned excuse me, CRT, but wokeness not at all.
The fact that the word woke was not uttered, both by the questioners and by those who are answering, is absolutely in first of all, incredible development, I think, But second it shows you that they are imbibing a lot of the same polling data where Viveke and both Ron DeSantis the core pitch from DeSantis was and I actually thought that was his most effective pitch. He's like, I'm the governor. I run Florida, one of the most popular states of.
The United States. You're talking about crime.
I actually have a fifty year low crime rate. You're talking about actually governing in terms of locking the state down. I didn't do that whenever I was the governor. I mean that, I've always believed that was his best pitch, so moving towards that, it's still you know, his overall performance.
And then for Vivic too, Vivike was doing two things.
He was both selling the America First agenda as like Trump would understand it specifically on key issues, and he's really selling a national identity. I loved this moment where it was Mike Pence versus Ramaswami, where Pence was like, why are you talking about how America is losing its national character? You're betting against the American people, And in my head, I'm like, you were the vice president to the guy who gave American carnage in my opinion, one
of the most important speeches in modern American history. I'm not saying it was a great speech as delivered the text of which no American president I'm trying to think, has ever taken and had an inaugural address saying things are not going well right now. Yeah, that's never happened before. It was a landmark moment in American history. Pence served as that man's vice president. Ramaswami is just reiterating the
same feeling that. Frankly, I think the vast majority of the country, including many Republicans, feel the right track wrong track number has never been worse than it is right now. So seventy five twenty five, it's very clear Ramaswami is betting on the idea, and not just him, Trump as well is betting on the idea of dissatisfaction, of anger, of a feeling of going backwards. Yeah, that I think fits much more deeply, not only with the overall electorate, with the GOP electorate too huge moment.
Yeah absolutely.
I mean Pence again is the throwback, right, It's Ronald Reagan morning in America, and it's like, that's not the moment we're living in. And it was fun. I picked up on that same thing. I was like, you were the guy who were you know, you were there for the American carnage speech. You backed up this guy, and I do think that what Pence said last night is actually more true.
To his political persona.
Yeah, you're right.
I think he you know, I don't think he's like making this up. I think he genuinely feels what he said. I think he just you know, was always a little bit of an odd fit for Donald Trump and his, in my opinion, more accurate view of how people feel about the country at this point, as backed up by the numbers. All right, let's go ahead and move on to who we picked our power ranking, who we picked
as winners and losers from this debate. I'll tell you how I was thinking about this very specifically, is not necessarily who had the best performances last night, but who is going to do themselves the most favors in the polls? Mark like, who's actually going to get a bump from this. Let's go and put this up on the screen. The first one is going to be no surprise. The vag Ramaswami, I think was the big winner of the night. He you know, got a lot of speaking time, second only to Mike Pence.
He had.
I mean, the biggest thing is like putting aside whether you're with them on Ukraine, against them on Ukraine or whatever. He had the vibes and he was the fighter. He drew so much incoming just by being the center of attention. He I think, really was elevated by the moment. And keep in mind, this is somebody who had one of the lower name ideas of this group, and I think he is certainly going to climb significantly in the polls.
The other person that I put is kind of like a runner up winner was NICKI Haley because I do think she she has been almost invisible in terms of this presidential race since she announced. She announced, and then she like dropped off the scene and we really haven't heard much from her. I thought she handled herself very well in a number of these exchanges, including in you know, feisty exchanges with the Veke on both Ukraine and also the exchange she had on abortion. I thought she handled
herself well. I think she distinguished herself. I think that, you know, there's a chance it's not that she's going to like skyrocket, but I think she'll get She's a three percent in the polls right now.
I think she'll get a little bit of a bump because.
She outperformed what people expected and distinguished herself and was you know, clear and had in my opinion overall, good night.
I think you are definitely correct. I differ a little bit.
I do think people should take a listen though to that Ukraine bit that we teased a little bit earlier, because it's important to this context.
Let's take a listen.
Is there anyone on stage who would not support the increase of more funding to Ukraine?
Would we not support it? Europe needs to step up. I mean I would have Europe step up and do their job.
Ukraine is the first line of defense for US, and the problem that Vvek doesn't understand is he wants to hand Ukraine to Russia. He wants to let China eat Taiwan. He wants to go and stop funding Israel. You don't do that to friends. What you do instead, as you have the backs of your friends Ukraine at the front line of defense. Putin has said if Russia once Russia takes Ukraine, Poland and the Baltics for next, that's a world war. We're trying to prevent war. Look at what
Putin did today. He killed Progosen. When I was at the un the Russian ambassador suddenly died. This guy is a murderer, and you are choosing a murder or over a American country.
You know, I wish you well in your future career on the boards of Lockheed and raytheon.
But the facts of the matter, and you've been pushing this live stay, You've been pushing this lie all week.
You want to go and defund Israel.
You want to get let me address that. I'm glad you brought that up.
Go and give you address those right now.
The false is of a professional politician.
There you have it, the reality of America lesson, you have no foreign policy experience, and then show you know what the.
Policy experience that you are loving that Ukraine bid.
I mean, listen, she got rocous applause for that. I thought that was the one exchange we're putting the substance of it aside where she's obviously like spouting just like neo Kan worldview, but she's spouting neo Kan worldview very effectively, and the audience raucously applauded her. That was the only time where I really felt it was clear that someone got the better of Avec in an exchange, even though
in terms of where he has positioned himself. I think he has more of the GOP base on his side. But on the showmanship, she you know, really.
Took it to him.
She didn't back down, and I think it was a that's that moment, right there is the reason why I really think she did.
Herself some favors.
So I was checking the Google search trends this morning.
We were both going over it, and the data basically bears out what you said. Vivike Ramaswami had the biggest search term bump of the night. He is obviously the most unknown, you know, funny name, etc. But Haley had the second biggest. We all have to look at it. It actually was equivalent to Vivike. She was the second biggest of the entire night. So I do think she's going
to get a big donor pop off of this. And yeah, I look, we shouldn't pretend that that view isn't very predominant, at least a part some parts of the Republican Party, specifically the donors. I think a lot of whom were cheering. So listen, I think that she did well. My thing is that I because this entire debate, in a sense is a farce without Trump. I only thought there really could be one winner, and that's why I went and I'll put this up there on the screen.
Guys, my winner.
I just said it was Vivake because at the end of the day here, it's like choosing and parsing multiple everyone here is already fighting for number two, Like you can't be the clear winner when the literal winner is off doing an x interview and is polling at two thirds higher than every single other person on the stage. So I think it's fine to have a moment like Nikki Haley, But you know, I think she'll get a moderate polling bump. I think the Ukraine and the Bill
Crystal people will freaking love her. But for the number two slot, the fact is Vivike was already nearly tied with Ramaswami and the RCP polling average Vivican DeSantis. I'm sorry and for Viveke to then have a forty percent non name ID in the state of Iowa, He's going to get massive media attention out of this. His name ID is going to go through the roof. I bet he's going to raise a ton of money. Then those stories about him rising the number two is going to
generate even more earned media. It's a cycle of which can only really benefit him, I think up to the top.
And you know, he he did a lot for himself, but he also was really given an assist, yes, by the fact that every candidate on stage was basically gunning for him. And you know, it's funny because we expected that, we that he was going to be able to handle
himself well, and he did. And we also expected that since he has been willing to go on a bunch of different shows and mix it up with all kinds of different people who don't agree with him, that he would be well positioned to handle those sorts of attacks, and he was. What I didn't expect is that no one would basically even try to lay a glove on Ronda Santis. They basically moved on from him, which is a real sign of weakness on his part as well.
But it ended up being a really failed strategy. It would have been much better for the rest of the field if they had pretended like the veig didn't really exist, because they gave him a lot of oxygen. They made him really central and it was very elevating.
Go ahead over, I was going to say that was just so on display with Chris Christie, you know, in that moment where he tried to ridicule him for copying the by the way, I did think it was a bit odd the moment he said the line, I was like, isn't that what Obama said? I had hope speech same react was that audacity? I forget the two thousand and four speech, the red America black whatever, that's the.
Yeah, there's no red states and blue stags for DNC.
Let's call it that.
Yeah.
So they kind of borrowed one of the lines from there and got called out by Chris Christy. Just take a listen here, because it's very clear he very much got under his skin.
I've had enough already tonight of a guy who sounds like chatchy bt stand it up here. And the last person in one of these debates bread who stood in the middle of the stage and said, what's a skinny with an odd last name doing up here?
Was Barack Obama.
And I'm afraid we're dealing with the.
Same type of amateur standing stage tonight.
Give give me a hut just like you did all the same, and you'll help elect me, just like Obama to give me that type of Richard got hold on, hold On.
I thought that was a good perry from a vague but also, as you could say, very clear, he drives him crazy. They were attacking him all night, and you put all of that together and it's just it's a it's a victory in terms of attention. Notice Mike Pence may have spoken more the entire night, he didn't have the same level of moments. He was actually more trying to dominate the conversation and also attack the others that were on the stage. I think it just irked him
that He's like, I'm the freaking former vice president. I'm sitting here behind these two jokers, and I can't He's like, I just can't believe it. It was very much like you said, Amy Klobuchar energy towards Pete Boy true clearly drives him nuts.
Absolutely.
The person who was really clear just absolutely lows vague with my path.
I mean, it was just visceral.
From the first mention of him, it was really clear, and they had a bunch of exchanges back and forth.
Chris Christy getting booed there.
I think Chris Christy made a real sort of tactical error by saying like it's America, you're allowed to boo, because it sort of greenlit everybody to boo everything that he said from there on out, and he played the heel he's not going to be the Republican nominee. I thought it was a decent line there, you know, in terms of his hit on Vivek, I also thought vive
handled it fine. But it just gives you a sense of how much he was taking the incoming and ended up being the center of attention, which is kind of incredible.
In terms of my losers, let's go ahead and put this up on the screen.
You know, two of them are people that we haven't even really talked about, Dog Burgram Asa Hutchinson.
They just were kind of invisible.
Their answers were kind of stumbling, They were awkward to watch, et cetera. I mean, I don't even know if I should calm losers because they're already at like below one percent, right, so are they really going to go down?
They probably just stay where they already, be honest with you.
The other person that I put up here, though, you might be surprised, which is Ronda Santis, And the reason why is not because I thought he had a terrible night.
I thought he did fine.
I thought some of his answers were kind of politician y, especially on climate change and abortion in Ukraine. He would sort of try to find that, like, you know, how can I wordsmith this to not really say anything or not really take a hard position. I thought that was noticeable at certain points, But overall I thought he did fine. The problem for him is he can't have all the
oxygen sucked up by somebody else. And you know, if I'm looking at this in terms of who's going to go up in the polls and who's going to go down in the polls, I think it's very likely that Rondo Santis goes down in the polls, even in spite of the fact that he had a decent ounting, simply because for people who are looking for a Trump alternative, many of them are going to go to vi Vaig
or you know, Nikki Haley. To the extent that you have other people on the stage who are proving themselves to be worthy second place contenders, that's a disaster for Rondo Santis, who has to consolidate all of the potential non Trump vote to have a prayer at this thing.
Yeah, so this is where I'm just not sure.
I'll put my losers guys up there, please on the screen, just so we can show a little bit of a difference, so mine as well. I feel like Bergham and Asa Hutchinson the obvious. My biggest loser was Christie relative to what I expected I thought he was. I put him as one of my expected winners of the night. He was completely unable to land the shots that he needed to both against Ramaswami.
Here was the craziest thing, and this is kind of to your point.
He did not say one word against Ron DeSantis, a man who he is attacked on Disney, a man who he is attacked many times before. If you want to consolidate the anti Trump vote, you need to be going after Ron DeSantis. He didn't land a single He didn't even try a shot against him against Ramaswami. Ramaswami interrupted him a couple of times. He parried, you know, pretty well on the Obama line as well. He never allowed him to self get Marco rubioed.
He did.
Christy takes a while to get keyed up before he delivers his deadly line. So clearly the lesson has just interrupted him, you know, throughout the entire thing, Christy man I and also there were the thing is Christy if he will notice? And remember he got the set question of the night where they directly gave him the opportunity to contrast with Ronde Santis. They're like, why are you better than DeSantis? I believe that was the framing of the question from Brett Baer. He miffed it totally.
Started talking about his old record in New Jersey. Dude, you've been gone for almost a decade. There was way too we were talking about.
Record, right and not even as governor is like you know, when he was on the legal side of things like it was. It was not a great night for Chris Chrissy. The reason I don't put him as a loser is because I don't think it's going to really change his poll enough. And so that's why I was thinking, but what do you think about Rhonda say you think he's going to go up.
Down, stay the same?
I I mean, you say flat, and that's a loss.
Whenever you're going to see Ramaswamy have such a bump, that's so in a certain way, like I don't know, I didn't put him as a loser just because I thought it was. I thought it was such a wash. I want to see how it shakes out.
It's listen.
I mean some of the polling that we've seen people ranked him like number three. Again, it's like, eh, he was there.
I don't know.
Yeah, it's one of those round If you're not going to lose, then it's not necessarily the worst things for.
This guy though.
Who after the midterms, just remember how hot he was, how you know, the future was the headline and he was. He was up there right neck and neck with Trump. And now to go to the first debate where Trump's not even there number one and number two, you're not the center, like, you're not the guy that people are trying to take shots at, which, you know, on the
one hand, it's safer for you. It allowed him to just go out and do the things that he had planned and roll out the you know whatever talking points he had prepared, which is not a knock on HND. They all had talking points prepared, but he's able to sort of do that seamlessly. On the other hand, you can see with the Veig what an opportunity it is when all of the fire is trained at you because you know you can eat.
That's like risk reward.
And so the fact that DeSantis didn't have that opportunity to be the center of attention, to take those attacks to prove he's a fighter, et cetera, I mean, it just makes him look small. And like I said, to begin with the fact that you have other contenders who are getting the attention, who are getting noticed or getting the Google search traffic interest, et cetera. You can't have that if you are DeSantis and you actually want to
be the top Trump alternative. So that's why I put it as a loss for him, and I would expect him to go down a bit in the polls. Again, not because he had like a terrible night, just because of the nature of the dynamics of where he is and who really out performed him.
Yeah, I think you're right, Crystal, and all of that is very important. Let's move on then to the counterprogramming. The important thing that also happened last night. Trump drops his interview with Tucker Carlson top line. I'm just going to say this on Trump. I thought that he miffed it a bit. I think he could have had a much better opportunity to earn more orange media if he was willing to say something a little bit more provocative.
Yeah, and listen, he had some funny moments. We're about to play them for you.
I thought the most interesting moment that our producers also nabbed was the bite on civil war.
Whether he thought we were close to a civil war?
Yeah, pretty important whenever you're running for president and have some of the record that he has.
So let's take a listen to what he said.
Do you think we're moving towards civil war?
This tremendous passion and this tremendous love. You know, January sixth was a very interesting day because they don't report it properly. People in that crowd, so it was the most beautiful day they've ever experienced. There was love in that grid. There was love and unity. I have never seen such spirit and such passion and such love. And I've also never seen, simultaneously, and from the same people, such hatred of what they've done to our country.
So do you think it's possible that there's open conflict we seem to move.
I don't know, because I don't know what it. You know, I can say this, there's a level of passion that I've never seen. There's a level of hatred that I've never seen them.
I don't know, Crystal. I thought it was a fine answer. I've interviewed Trump before, I've asked him something similar. It basically was the same stock that he's always given about chan six. I mean, you pulled this bite about Kamala Harris. I thought this was his only good one.
Yeah, I mean agreed from what I saw there was and by the way, I mean, just overall, I think it was a mistake. I think I actually think I have come to think it was a mistake for him to not go to this debate, interesting because it allows people to imagine a Republican field without him, and I think a lot of Republican voters probably saw some things that they liked on that stage, whatever like flavor of conservative they happened to be.
So I think it was a mistake.
I think the specific choice he made to do the Tucker Carlson interview on Twitter, which Twitter still under Elon Musk as it was before, perhaps even more so under Elon Musk, is a niche platform. You know, most people are not going to watch any of that interview. The fact that you chose to, you know, rub Fox News's like knows in the fact that they turned against you
and turned against Tucker or whatever. Also doesn't serve you because it means they're not going to talk about your interview whatsoever.
They're not going to share any eclips.
There was nothing provocative in it to grab the headlines and wrest them away from Vivek, who is certainly having his moment in the sun right now, and so he's done something very uncharacteristic, which was to allow someone else to grab the spotlight and to allow Republicans to imagine a party in a field without him. So I think it was a mistake. And then in terms of the content and interview it was boring.
I'll give the counter it got some hundred and something million views so far.
You know that's fake.
Yeah, that's totally that.
Whether is not real that I scrolled past it or not, who knows what the real number is. I most I think I'll split the difference. I think that at the end of the day, it won't matter whether he came or not. In terms of the mistake, I think it was a mistake democratically small d in order to give voters a chance. I also think looking at the stage, I think he would have dominated everybody there.
He would have crushed.
So, if anything, he had a missed opportunity to just make everybody look like infants, which I think he would have done just given his own the sheer amount of political skill he has visa v what we saw last night, where we really only saw one or two people with some real shine out moments, I think Trump would have absolutely dominated. But in terms of the content, like you were saying, I was shocked at how little he was willing to engage and play it up because he's such a showman.
To that long.
It was very low energy.
He was lower energy.
He did have one funny moment, as I said on Kamala Harris, let's take a listen to that.
She has some bad moments. Her moments are almost as bad as his. I think his are worse.
Actually, yeah, she seems pretty senl too.
She speaks in rhyme. It's weird. It's weird, but she has bad moments and in rhyme. Well, the way she talks, the bus will go here, and then the bus will go there, because that's what busses do.
It's weird.
The whole thing is weird. This is not a president of the United States future.
He's right, I mean, what is the technical term? I am big pantameter of he is onto something though.
I mean Marshall had the best insight on Kamala Harris, which is she's always trying so hard to like Aaron's ork in it and say something meaningful, and it's like, just.
Just like say the thing.
You would be better off with basic syntax.
The final moment was on Epstein, where he both seems to say that he thinks Epstein killed himself, but he leaves himself a little bit off to he dodged the bit. I was surprised by this. Let's take a listen, guys, do.
You think Epstein killed himself? Sincerely, I don't know.
I will say that, you know he was a fixture in Palm Beach. Yeah, I don't know what Barr said about it either. I have no idea what he said. What did he say he killed himself?
Probably he said he killed himself and that they were gonna do this investigation.
They never did the investigation. It's public and they hit it and like, why are they doing that?
He literally Barr knew, but why would Bill Barr be covering up the death of Jeffrey Epstein.
Bill Barr didn't do an investigation on the election fraud either. Okay, he said he did, and he pretended he did, but he didn't. MC Swayne, the US attorney in Pennsylvania Philadelphia, said Bar just wouldn't let him do It was crazy.
I was reminded of the time he got asked about Gleene Maxwell, remember that at the Poet and it was like, I wish well, and everyone's like.
What he knew her?
This is the thing you knew them? As he said he knew Jeffrey and Palm Beach.
Yeah, a fiction of Palm Beach. Was like, that doesn't really pertain to the question that was asked.
Here's that famous line.
What did he say where he's like Jeffrey he likes him young or so something like that whenever they knew each other back in the.
Mar A Lago days.
But he claimed that he was pissed off at Epstein and so he banned him from the club. Anyway, those were like the Big three. I guess, yeah, people are forty six minutes. That's mostly what people took notice of. I don't think he did it effective of enough of a job of earned media, because it's not just about the interview or whatever itself and the people who watched it.
It's about actually getting others to cover it.
And it's clear, you know, I'm looking at the front pages of the New York Times and all of the other major papers, as well as some of the banners from Fox News, but also you know, in terms of YouTube creators and others, and you know, the main headline mostly comes out of the debate and not from the X interview.
And that's way more interesting.
Yeah, and he needed if this were to be a success, it would have to have been a big event that forced the media to cover it.
And I haven't seen that very uncharacteristic who if anything else. I mean, this is a man who knows compelling TV and he really didn't create any in that inner and got completely unshine by the Republican debate.
So, you know, rare, rare situation in terms of the Trump Show.
All Right, We've got Emily and Kyle standing by to also weigh in and see their thoughts on whether Trump made a mistake here by not showing up to the debate, and we want to hear their overall debate thoughts as well.
So let's go ahead and get to it.
All right, We've got our power panel here in the house.
We got Emily and Kyle to add their thoughts on the debate last night. Wanted to start guys with the conversation.
Saga and I were just having what do you guys think about whether or not Trump made a mistake by not doing the debate and deciding to do this Twitter interview with Tucker Cross and Emily.
Go ahead, what are your thoughts?
Yeah, I don't think it was a mistake. I mean, I think he wins either way because he's got forty points in the polls. I think his interview with Tucker was compelling.
It's on a new platform.
It did get a lot of views. We don't know how many because those numbers are so juiced and fake. Yes, but at the same time, it was fairly viral. There's a lot in it. He got to talk about whatever he wanted to talk about, and he didn't have to look like he was debasing himself. Again, I think he should debate, but he like from a strategic point of view, he just can't lose at this point when he's forty points up unless there's a real someone mounts a very
serious threat to him. But he's even up twenty six points according to rcp's average.
In Iowa right now.
So unless there's a really serious threat to him, I just don't see how he loses. He could have crushed that debate. I think he probably would have had a lot of viral moments, a lot of fun with it, like circa twenty fifteen, twenty sixteen. But again, I just don't think there was any way for him to lose, despite like whatever decision he made.
Yes, what do you think, Kyle?
I mean, if he just showed up and farded on stage, you would have won the debate. I mean I remember back in the previous elections, he would show up. There would even be nights where he had an off night, and still the reaction would be all the poll show he won, all the focus groups say he won. There's something about his vibes that resonates with the GOP base. So the only way he could lose is by not going.
And I actually think that you're going to see a real, real minor of chipping away on his numbers.
Again, I agree with Emily.
I don't think it's going to actually make a difference ultimately, But I do think you'll see a three, four or five point reduction in his numbers, and that'll sort of spread out among the candidates who did well.
Yeah.
Could he could have humiliated everybody on the stage and basically closed the door for anyone. You know, Chris Christy was not on his a game last night, so I don't think he would have been a real threat to Trump in terms of, you know, any sort of exchange there.
And what I said earlier is he.
Actually opened the door for Republican voters to envision a post Trump Republican party, which is not something that he should allow. And very uncharacteristically, he also allowed someone else but vike Ramswami, to basically grab the spotlight from him.
So do I think that means that like Vivik's going to beat him?
No?
But do I think it erose his support some?
Do I think that it enables someone else to get some oxygen for Republican voters to imagine different Yeah.
I do think from that perspective it was probably a mistake.
Although he still loomed really large. There was this whole extended segment about Trump himself he was. I mean, he was there very much. And I think from the perspective of a Republican voter, they're still thinking about Trump when he's not in the room, even when all these guys are answering questions. And to your point, Crystal, I agree.
I think that's so interesting to see this group of people who are not Donald Trump, who are jocking for the nomination and for the average Republican voter, I think a lot of people looked at that and were like, damn, this is what we got. These are my choices, And I mean, in some sense it explains why you still have so few undecided voters in the Republican primary.
One of the things that kind of came across to me Kyle was one of the reasons why Viveke was doing well was because he wasn't running against Trump like
he was actually the bigger defender of Trump. And so in that way, when you have a power dynamic like that, I kind of do agree with you where even if Trump had showed up, if it really would have robbed Viveke of the spotlight, because in Viveke couldn't just defend Trump and be the person kind of standing up some of the more America First, MAGA policy areas like he was. It gave him more of a contrast, and I think
he would have had if Trump was there. That said, I mean, because he's looming so larger of this whole thing. It's just difficult to look at this as you're a loss or a win. Like you said, three four points. I mean, Trump doesn't care. That's that's more than he's already made up. Since Ron De Santis and vivek announcement.
I think the vec's numbers will go up, but I think that those people are still going to vote for Trump, you know what I mean. So it's almost like it's like a sort of a fake win. I think he's gunning for VP slot or something in the administration. And I do have justlight disagreeing with you guys on the VEC. I feel like he did straight in the first half, but then in the second half, I feel like he really got hammered into the ground.
So you watched it twice, Yes, I'm curious. Sorry, go ahead, Grissel.
Well, I was just gonna just to keep it on Trump for another moment here because the other question would be, like, you know, I think it's disgraceful that Trump didn't show up at the debate. I think it's disgraceful that Joe Biden isn't going to debate. I think it's disgusting. I think you want to talk about, like, you know, deterioration of democracy or whatever. I think this is number one case in point. However, we have a poll that we can cite here that shows that Donald Trump. They asked,
was Donald Trump right to have attended the debate? To have not attended the debate, seventy one percent of Republican said, yeah, that's the thing.
It would do.
It would be the opposite if he went. If he went, it'd be like ninety eight percent say he should have gone. So like, I don't take much.
From this, which just shows you, but it just shows you how central whatever he does.
They're like, I agree, I agree, but you know, have fun moving those deck chairs around on the top of the Titanic. Because he's got ninety one criminal charges against him, and eventually I think he's going to be going.
In to prison.
Well, and again, his numbers have gone up, and you guys have talked about this many times. His numbers are going up. The more the indictments stack up, the more Trump supports stacks in the Republican primary, in the Republican non the general, and maybe there's a ceiling in the Republican primary on that. We haven't seen it be the case so far. In fact, what we've seen is the gulf widening between him and everybody else, which is another interesting thing when you look at this group of people.
The analogy that I'm thinking in my head, it's like you have some of the people from varsity playing on the JV squad that would be like DeSantis, which is why you know he wasn't dunking right like yes, where Vivek is the freshman, so he's like dunking left and right, like he's trying even if he misses, he's trying to show that he can jump. He's trying to get it
all in. And when you have Pence and Christy like begging for airtime basically like they just looked like they were debasing themselves just to get a like this is a former vice president of the United State, it's a former governor of a state, and they are just squabbling, scrambling for airtime with people like Doug Burghum, I mean, come on looks. It's a bad look.
It's really especially I think more people should have skipped the debate.
No, no, I think they should have just I think they should have just like not been scrambling so desperate dignified like Mike Pence kept if Mike Pence kept saying like, oh I want to get in here, like he's saying.
That out loud, and I was like, oh, buddy, come on the vice.
President, like let viveg do that.
There's no winning for them though, if they if they didn't say anything, everybody'd be like, why are you being so meek? Why are you being so nebbish? Are you being so weak? Which now they say a lot and it's like the bro relax.
They just can't win.
It's kind of it's kind of a humiliating thing for anyone who I mean, it's very humbling, especially for if you've been former vice president and you got to be there on the City. You can tell how much it irked him not to be there with Asa Hutchinson and Doug Burgram, who he views because they have political cretentials as legitimate and he didn't find it disrespectful to be
on stage with them. Mike Pence despises the vag Ramaswami and we made this comparison earlier, but it really does remind me of Amy Klobashar and the way she felt about Pete Boodaget.
She thought, this guy has done nothing.
He was a mayor of this tiny town here, I've been a senator, I've done all these things. Like you could viscerally see how much she despised being up there next to him. And then he comes out and actually is you know, gets higher in the polls and places better and I better in New Hampshire, et cetera very humiliating experience, oftentimes running for president of the United States.
Yeah, I think you're right.
Let's underscore this also though, in terms of why it didn't necessarily work out for Pence. We have a focus group that CNN actually did immediately after the debate in Iowa. So let's all take a listen to that about who they said actually won the debate.
Here's what I want to ask you about who you thought did the best during this debate. Basically, who do you think won the debate? I'm gonna do it in alphabetical order to be fair. Anyone think Doug Bergham did the best.
That zero?
Anyone think Chris Christy did the best. He certainly got most of the airtime, a lot of the airtime, not most of the airtime. How about Ron DeSantis? How many of you think Ron DeSantis did the best? That's two people? How about Nikki Haley one, two, three, four people, Asa Hutchinson, Mike Pence zero theyk Ramaswami one, two, three, four, five six seven Tim Scott Okay, So this panel here thinks Ramaswami won the debate.
So I personally really like that focus group because it matches up with my when HER's and losers number.
One top one was Viveke and number two.
I actually thought Nicki Haley of the like also rans did herself some favors, in particular in her exchange with the VIC on Ukraine where she actually got the crowd behind her. I thought it was the one moment where Viveke was really kind of on his heels and where she got the better of him in that exchange.
But Kyle, what are your overall thoughts?
So, like I said, I think Ramaswami came out of the gates hard and he was doing well early on. I think he fell off massively. He had a number of lines where he got like very clearly booed his thing on climate change, calling it a hoax. I think on the issue of Ukraine, regardless of what you think of the substance, I think Nikki Haley got the better of him on that. I even think Mike Pence got
the better of him on that. There were moments where he just sort of like, you know, faded into the background. He was shining bright and then he sort of faded into the background. So I don't agree with you on that at all. My biggest winners like you. On Nikki Haley, I.
Think she did way better than anybody expected.
Yeah, she beat the bar.
But I also think and this you'll definitely have an issue with this one. I actually think DeSantis had a way better debate than I was expecting. And I watched it twice, and when I went back and I listened, there was a number of lines where he got like really loud applause, so nobody laid a glove on him, and he was able to get his talking points out. He got really loud applause. And I think that he comes out of his looking the best to be honest, what do you think.
I actually agree completely with that point, because again, I think all he needed to do he knows that this debate is not going to make a huge dent in the polls, Like that's actually probably one of the most important things, like predicates that you could come into that debate as a candidate thinking unless you're a vague, unless you're like the freshman and the analogy that I'm not torturing.
But I think DeSantis just.
Needed to be there. He needed to not have any moments where he gets dunked on, and he didn't need to have moments where he dunks on other people. He just needed to be solid because this debate is not going to change a forty point lead. That's going to have to be done in the ground, on the ground in Iowa.
Well, it's sad that you're both wrong.
I thought Jonah Hill won the debate.
I don't think we can all agree on it.
No, So here's my analysis with Desanta's I thought, I agree that I thought he's in fine. Like I didn't think they had any big mess ups. I thought I had some answers that were kind of like weasily a politician, But whatever they all have those moments, right. I thought
he was totally solid and I expected him. I put him as one of my predictions as a winner going in because the bar has been set so low for him with all of the like, let's mind every awkward moment we possibly can a Rond de Santis and you know, convince people that he is like the weirdest human being un planet Earth. And he's a little weird, but he's not the weirdest human being un planet Earth. So I do think that he exceeded the bar. I thought he
was perfectly solid. But if you're Ron DeSantis and you were the guy that was tied with Trump in the polls for a while, that coming out of the midterms, you were the winner. You know, you were putting points on the board, like check the score or whatever. For you to lose the spotlight to viviak Ramaswami, for you to get out shown by like Nikki Hayley, that's a big loss. And I think that his polling will probably go down just because this is with this divided field.
If you have other people who are sucking up oxygen and getting attention, you know, so it's got to come from somewhere. It's probably not coming mostly from Trump, and so that's why I think overall, in some ways he was the biggest loser because he's so diminished from where he used to be.
Go ahead, can't hold his past against him. The question is whether or not he won that particular debate.
Well, the way I'm looking at this is where what are the Poles going to do?
Right?
I think I think they're going to go up for him for sure.
Well I'm very serious to that though, because the thing is is that DeSantis has slid, as Crystal is saying now from thirty five to forty all the way down to the RCPA or somewhere between sixteen seventeen. Ramaswami already around twelve. I was talking about this earlier in the show Iowa he's got forty percent, no name id, People
don't even know who the guy is. So if DeSantis slips from that and then Ramaswami starts to get up, not only is Ramaswami then potentially taking over Ron DeSantis, but then there's an entire media cycle about this guy came from nowhere and is now overtaking number two with an earned media that spirals there. People like to pick a winner. I mean, look all of this again, as you said, Emily, Trump is above all of this.
Yeah, they're all Trump voters. Ramaswami has no actual support. These are all Trump voters.
But I mean, listen, there are some people, at least in Iowa currently, from what we can see, let's say, let's call it one third, maybe let's call it any between one third and approximately up to like forty percent, there's people that are not They like Trump, they have a lot of affection for Trump, They're willing to vote for somebody else, especially in this ridiculous caucus system.
The whole how does it work?
It's like one two and then you know, if this person goes away, then you can go and you can caucus with somebody else. They kind of look the whole what is it? They vote with their heart in Iowa. So I think that in that scenario, I could see, I can see a big.
Knight told them Trump is the best president of this century. Yeah, so why are you running?
Listen?
Why are you running? It makes no sense?
I really wish Emily the moderators asked that damn question.
If you believe that, why are any of you running against Trump? I would I would actually love to see that question.
Here's the thing.
Everybody on stage was either a total Trump siicophant or a Trump hater except one person, Ron Desanti's interesting. It's true. So there were a bunch of lines. He hit lockdowns and the deep state and Fauci. He got a huge applause. He hit Soros funded DA's huge applause. He did his line, which I actually when I went back and watch it the second time, I thought he handled this brilliantly. When they were trying to get him an answer like did
Mike Pence do the right thing? He basically said, look, I've got no beef with you, Pench, you did the right thing. But then he went, why are we even talking about this? Though we're helping the Democrats, we should be focusing on the issues. He got a big applause on that. He said, kill people at the border, leaving
Stone cold dead. Got a big applause on that. By the way, I hate all of these things, but I'm just saying it landed special forces invading Mexico to attack the drunk ker, huge applause on that he's only one who didn't get hit and wasn't a Trump siicophant and wasn't a Trump hater like Asa and Christie were. So I definitely think he comes out of this looking the best.
Here's the thing, because the other piece is like, what did you think this debate was about? And to me, this debate is not about beating Trump. This debate was about being the top alternative to Trump, and given the Republican base's affection for Donald Trump, the best way to position yourself as the top alternative to Trump is by being as Trump sycophantic as you possibly can.
So Beta, I think I love him, but for me, I think the best it is one percent.
It's totally Beta.
But at the same time that you say you know that, you say it's beta. Vivic was the person who had the most like you know, assertive like vibes on the stage, and so much of this is about the vibes. He was the fighter, he drew the fire, he was able to pairy the attacks. He was the center of attention, sort of coming out of nowhere. And so the fact that you know, he was the center of the show and DeSantis, who was really supposed to be the guy, was on the sidelines. You know, I think in terms
of that jocking to be the potential number two. There's just no doubt in my mind for a vake won that away from DeSantis.
I haven't been for like the last couple of months, been thinking every question that the Vey handles in regard to Donald Trump is exactly how Rondo Santis should have been handling it from a strategic perspective, because it's that huge Trump contingent that is going to vote for him right now, and if you are trying to take that, maybe there's some persuadable people in there that you can
get into your basket. If you're trying to do that, you have to have to show that you're on the same page as them when it comes to Donald Trump. Otherwise you are going to be put in the basket of an establishment hack who doesn't understand what Trump did to the Republican Party. If you're somebody who votes for Donald Trump, you're somebody who's saying I'm tired of establishment politicians. Rond de Santa is acting like an establishment politician and
having these canned answers when it comes to Trump. I genuinely don't think it's been helpful.
Let me back up what she's saying and I want to hear your response, which is that at the end of the day, all these people are running as number two, and the hope and prayer is that something happens to Trump, as you said, he goes to jail, and then the MAGA people actually have to choose somebody alternatively, very low chance, but it's possible. I've told this anecdote before. Lynnon Johnson. They asked and they're like, why are you meeting the
vice president? You're one of the most powerful people in Washington. And he named the number of presidents that have been killed. I think he's like one in five. He's like one in five. I like those odds, Darlin.
That's what he said to a reporter.
So it's like, that's.
Effectively the game, and that's when all these guys, we're younger, are playing. Yeah, that's true.
Young So in this scenario, VIVEIQ by defending Trump, the most can consolidate. In this hypothetical like black Swan scenario, which is which is the only path.
For Yeah, So in that I don't get first of all these people they're siloed off, they're in their own bubble. There was when they asked a question about like if Trump gets convicted, would you still vote for him? And like, everybody's hand went up except Asa and Christy. When I look at that, I'm like, general election over. I understand that, but I'm saying, but, okay, what's the ultimate goal. They're running for president? The ultimate goal is to get to
the White House. Okay, so congrats. You might if Trump ends up in prison, you might have weaseled your way by sucking them off into getting into the position where you're.
Gonna get but you're gonna lose. You're gonna lose. So I just look at this.
I think, to me, it's like, oh, Vivek's being called anti Simes. There's nothing anti establishment about this guy. First of all, I know, yeah, and when you're when you're snuggling up to the guy with ninety one criminal charges against him, and you think, what that makes you an outsider?
And he was.
Of course, he was trying to be anti war on the one hand, but then on the other hand, he kept bringing up China in a hawkish mat He's called for war with Mexico over the drug cartels. I just okay, But substance aside, I don't I think that that beta strategy makes you a beta, like I don't think anybody who's supporting the VEC is actually going to support the VEC. I think, I agree with you A numbers are going to go up after this, but I think it's fake support.
I think they're ultimately all going to vote for Trump because the VEC is telling them Trump's the guy.
Publican voters will see it as beta that Rhanda Santis is taking DC talking points on Trump. That's the Republican voter perspective.
Yeah, I agree.
Let me display Devil's advocate in terms of like a possibility to another like a Trump actually getting outright defeated, which I don't think is going to happen. I think that he would have to be sort of removed by going to jail or something crazy like that. But you know, in Iowa and in New Hampshire, I'm looking right now at the Real Clear Politics average, and he's quote unquote only forty three percent in Iowa and forty four percent
in New Hampshire. That means a majority of Republicans are actually not with him in those states, yes, and are at the very least evaluating their alternatives right now. In both of those states. As it stands, Ron de Santis is the top alternative. I would submit it is very possible that after this debate, Vivik moves into that position of being the top Trump alternative with all of the media attention. Americans love also like a fresh new face, someone we didn't hear about before Nuance.
They like we.
Americans love that story, regardless of the political party.
That they're in.
And so I think the fact that he out shown DeSantis and was the center of so much attacks from some figures on that stage that Republican base, by the way, really hates, I think that's very beneficial for him.
And I think it's really deletious for DeSantis.
The math in Iowa is actually interesting. It does not match up to the general election math, but it does have desantus down by twenty six points. And the fact that we're even calling that interesting is funny because we are still pretty far away from people actually going to caucus in Iowa. But if Ron de Santis and vi Vike Ramaswami start to become competitive in Iowa, what's important to think about is that is the reverse basically of what's happening Nash, and that most people in Iowa say
they want to vote for somebody other than Trump. He's still under fifty percent I think in Iowa. Yeah, and that is fascinating because that means you get into a scenario where you maybe have people dropping out like what happened with Democrats in twenty twenty. And if somebody does manage to win Iowa. Ted Cruz went to Iowa in twenty sixteen. This is why I think Rond de Santis campaign strategy, which is very directly to put all of
their eggs in the Iowa basket. I think it's stupid to begin with, because you can win Iowa and still not do much, but you could consolidate a portion of the Republican vote and then see if you can flip that national math to look more like Iowa. It's a long shot, Yeah, but THEVEC and I. If Ronde santa'sn't Viveke come close like that, you're going to see some really interesting stuff happen.
Let me ask a different question that I'm curious about. Do you think that Trump is going to start attacking Viveke if he does go up in the polls and does take some of the spotlight.
Yes, that's it.
N I don't think not yet.
I think the only I think Trump will only start attacking the veck when Vivek says something negative about him.
That's how Trump operates. He's super transaction.
You could say eighty things negative about him, but if the very last thing you said about him was positive, then it'll be a great guy, wonderful guy, really smart.
Maybe, but you might be.
I'm ambivalent about this question myself. I don't know the answer. But he's not a counter argument would be that the other thing you can do to Trump outside of, like, you know, being disloyal, is dealing a spotlight.
He's not a threat. See that's where we fundamentally disagree. I think he's so not a threat and he's so beta that Trump is loving. Is he's getting free advertisements from the guy who is at the debate?
Yes and no.
So look Trump is a media whore.
A front page of the New York Times this morning, Ramaswamy, you know, debate dominates debate front page of the Washington That's a good point, Romis Wammy, I mean the Trump New York Post, Ramaswami, our headlines, Ramaswamma.
Trump was given him credit, though Trump was given press too.
At that Look this is why I hated desantas in the first one, DeSantis didn't say one word about him. It was when DeSantis was getting winning Florida by twenty points. It's when DeSantis was actually getting better headlines than Trump was that it started to driving crazy. The one reason why I think it's a little bit different is Trump feels stronger today than he did about DeSantis several months ago when DeSantis was much nearer to him in the polls.
And I think that Vivike does a much better job of actually playing ball. He's one of those where DeSantis clearly is irked by the Trump attacks. DeSantis also has hit back in like veiled ways. ROMs Pymy will never do that, and I think it's actually a correct move whenever it comes to running again for this hypothetical number two to number one scenario. So if there is a situation where Trump attacks him, it will be because of
this earned media. But I don't see that happening just yet, because Vivek is still flashing the pan in terms of this number, this amount of media attention. Think about the amount that DeSantis has had for almost what two years, all throughout the COVID pandemic up until the GOP primary.
Viveke hasn't had anywhere close to that.
It would have to reach that level for him to begin to regard him as a serious threat.
Look, I just look at vivec as the Republican version of Pete buota Je. And I also look at him and even though I agree with you, his numbers will go up after this. You know, there was a moment when Ben Carson was leading in the Republican primary.
There was a moment when.
Herman Kane was There was a moment when Carly Fiorina had a good debate and led for two and a half seconds. So I look at it.
I look at it kind of like that.
And also I think, just final point, I know, I'm beaten up on the guy, but like he is so politicianing. And the whole thing about Republicans, which actually gave them a lot of credit for, is that they are much more likely than Democrats to go I don't want any of your politician nonsense.
And I just I get that stench from the VEC and it just it. I don't see it. I don't see it.
Emily.
One thing I wanted to get from me specifically is the VAC and Ronda Santis both when they launched their campaigns all in on anti wokeness.
That was the center of their pitch. That was the center of.
DeSantis' like legislative agenda in Florida. Florida's Where Goes to Die? Vivek wrote the book like this was their thing. No one said a word about wokeness last night.
We don't think it was said once. Do you remember.
I think Nikko Haley said it once. I think she said, like there's some woke stuff happening in schools. I think it was like atty passed.
But it was certainly wasn't a question, It wasn't a focus. Ronda Santis got pitched, pitched a question down the center about like tell us about education.
Word did not come out of his mouth, you know CRT though he didn't mention that doesn't sure that's adjacent.
It's adjacent.
It's just think of Okay, just for comparison, remember when Silicon Valley Bank collapsed and they were like the wokeness, and discourse we were in was like, literally, you know what's wrong with the military, the wokeness? Every single problem it came back to wokeness. And then for that to be completely disappeared from the debate last night, they got the memo.
This was not the thing that res cared about.
So I think it is literally a memo. That would be my way is that they actually did focus groups and they've been pull testing this. And especially when you have really high inflation, when you have horrific wildfires of Maui, it is not going to look good to get on that stage and just start banging the wokeness drum over and over again, which to people and I'm actually really
curious about this. I'd love to see numbers, especially the numbers that they clearly have behind the scenes, about wokeness if it has just start to start to feel like a cartoonish, empty type of rhetoric and as opposed to something that felt real in twenty twenty and twenty twenty one, when people were actually like reeling from what was happening
in COVID schools, what was happening in big cities. It's just maybe feels stale to people now, and it maybe feels fake to people now, and so you have to find a different way to talk about it. And so I think that is a huge takeaway. You guys are completely right about that. I don't think anybody made a mistake by not laying in. I agree to wokeness. With that language, he can talk about critical race theory, but woke has just started to feel.
What I'll Backkyle up on is I thought Desanta's was the best version of himself last night, as in he was constantly talking about He's like, I'm the governor. I'm the governor one of these popular states. I actually did this. You know, Florida, we have record, little crimer. Everything was about governance and experience and going to his political record. I really appreciated that version of him because I've always thought that was his strongest thing. He's like, listen, people
moved to Florida because of my leadership. End of story. I want to turn America.
You know.
I want to give that same dream to everybody else. I think there's a lot going on. I don't necessarily if I want America to be Florida. But that's like, let's put that aside. The point being that that's a very strong message that I think both is a GOP and a general electorate message that DeSanto was disabled to convey.
Yeah, I mean I think it was solid. I think he was only one who didn't get a glove laid on him.
He was in and out quick. He got a bunch of big applause lines.
And actually I was surprised after the debate when they released you know who talked the most? I think he came in third, which I was like, I didn't even realize he talked that much.
He got to aunt Hence Vivac and the Pence Vive Christie and then then Santas.
Yeah, yeah, but to your point, like, yeah, what happened. I thought wokeness was the number one problem in the country.
Yeah, but they happen.
You didn't bring up the number on problem country.
Basically, what happened is Ron DeSantis leaned all the way into that and his polls.
Went, Oh, that's exactly right. Maybe, but we have such good message discipline. These guys flip on a dime. Man's this is going to sound so really weird.
But Jennifer Hannison came out this week saw that and criticized culture. Yeah, it's like twenty twenty three, and everyone shrugs. If she had done that, like one of the world's biggest movie stars, one of the world's biggest TV stars coming out and being like, listen, I think cancel culture, Like what is it? Maybe it goes a little too far. That would have been headlines for days. She would have had to put out an apology, et cetera, et cetera.
Can I say what was so annoying about that quote?
She said quote, I'm so sick of cancel culture, and then she goes, I'll probably get canceled for safe.
Yeah. I was like, I was like, shut up, Jennifer, Okay, even know she said you.
Made a joke in nineteen ninety seven. I'm against for.
The Morning Show season three. I was there for season one. Season two is like, I think it's a little ife.
Season three.
I'm not sure anybody asked.
I see a lot of you guys in the morning.
The only thing that you're.
Correctly getting is that people get bitchy and annoyed when they have to wake up early morning for this job.
That's a whole lot of me too.
So let me tell you guys some numbers. This is from Jail Partners and the Daily Mail. They did you know quick poll last night after the debate of who won and who lost, and partly I want to get from you guys We've talked about the vague a lot.
We talked about Ronda Santis a lot.
I want to get from you all of the sort of also rans if you thought anyone stood down? So who in your review performed best in the debate of Republican voters? Twenty eight percent said Viveke That was number one, but very closely behind him Number two Rondo Sandus twenty seven, number three, Mike Pence, number four, Tim Scott, number five, Nikki Haley, Next is Chris Christy, then Doug Asa, and then at nine percent, don't know, did you?
What do you guys think of those numbers?
And I'm curious, like I said about some of the also rans, because I personally thought Nikki Haley did herself some favors and she exceeded my expectations since the beginning of campaigns.
And she launched, she's kind of disappeared.
I thought she reasserted herself and you had a good exchange with Viveke and also was very strong on her views on abortion.
What did, Kyle, What did you think in terms of also rans? Anyone stand out to.
Yeah, So here's my breakdown of it. Bergham and Asa barely exist. They should have been asleep. They would have been more productive. Ace's eye popped halfway through to the May it was bloodshot. Red Burgham was high as balls on percocet, which that's what's up.
Live your best life.
But he had it because he had didn't have a pocket constitution.
He had a pocket constitution. He also had a torn achilles too, so there was a lot going on there. But those guys they barely exist. Pence was way more aggressive than I expected and way more high energy. But you know, he also his super religiosity came out. I think Pence is also incredibly politician. He had moments where it was like, oh, that's such a politician line.
The sanctimonious.
Yeah, totally.
It's like the Marshall Sorkins thing that you were talking about.
He practiced it. It's like he practiced some of those lines in the mirror. I said in front of God.
I think that's actually that means oh really genuinely, that's kind of Oh that's interesting that which is why it's so weirdly more authentic.
But it's very similar on and off. Yeah.
I also thought there were moments where he was having a legit identity crisis. On stage when he's trying to explain January sixth, It's like, who are you trying to convince her?
I did the right thing. I did the right thing. Like it was very it was very needy.
It seemed like he wanted the audience as approve for his like whole January sixth stick. I think Nicky Haley agree with you. I think she's one of the winners of the debate. I think her numbers are going to go up. She did way better than I. First of all, I expected nothing of Nicki Haley at all. I find her incredibly boring. She's a donor creation. But then when she got up there, she started throwing some haymakers. I was like, okay, Nikki, so she I think she did
a decent job. Tim Scott did better than I thought, but he has no juice, so it doesn't really matter. Christy did a mediocre performance, but everybody was against him, everybody on stage, everybody in the crowd. He had tough odds, and that's that's pretty much everyone.
You miss Perry Johnson being on this loss.
I miss Larry Elder.
I get a segment. I think Larry got screwed.
I don't know about it. I haven't looked at it.
I looked into it, and it looks like because he used a Rasmussen poll and they told him after the fact, you're not allowed to use a Rasmus in pole.
It's like you guys use Rasmusten poles all the time. It's a good point, actually, Emily, final thoughts, what do you think?
Yeah, so, first of all, I thought it was hilarious that AESA was bragging about being the former head of the DEA while looking blazed. Anyway, I just actually I think a big takeaway from those numbers is this is a huge loss for Tim Scott, who has been banking on doing very well in the debates. There's actually a lot of money behind him, which is not surprising because he's on the Banking Committee, but there's a decent amount
of money. He's really been working on an infrastructure in Iowa in those early states, and to I think flop, he didn't just do well, he actually was a little less than that he was. It was a little less than solid or baseline, because there were times when he was just like pushing so hard to speak, and there were times when it was like he paused after being asked a question.
It was just it comfortable moments for him. I thought, yeah, nothing like horrendous. But he needed to have the Nick Haley night exactly, especially.
When everyone's running for such a small lane. He's like, you've got to dominate that man.
He needed that. He needed to have Nicky Haley or Pence where he was injecting himself confidently into the conversation and taking some of those big exchanges in a way that was actually appealing to those kind of Pence type that that lane, that never Trump lane. He really needed to hammer it, and he just didn't, despite the fact that he does have a lot of money behind him and there is there are resources invested in him, so to not even do baseline well at a debate is a pretty big one.
Well, and that's actually a great point because the donors are shopping around her. Yeah right, they were going to be behind DeSantis. They're kind of like, eh, this didn't really work out. We didn't love your answers on Ukraine and on abortion and other things.
They've been shopping.
They've been thinking about Glenn Younkin, and you know, if they go to sleep at night or whatever. I think out of last night's debate, the donors are gonna be taking a big look at Nikki Hiley and they've always been had in a finished for her. Yeah, you know, she has the right ideological positioning for them. She's trying to moderate on abortion. She you know, has the Neokon view on Ukraine. Like she's in the right places ideologically.
And I think they'll look last night at her performance and say, oh there's something here, and she might be the next like donor flavor of the moment, which is, you know, that's the thing that gives you money, that keeps you in the fight, that gives you positive Fox News headlines and Wall Street Journal headlines and whatever. So it's definitely a thing that matters, doesn't get you to the presidency.
Now, Yeah, big winner was Paul Singer there in that debate. All Right, I agree with you the best.
I don't feel like it matters though, Yeah twenty sixteen all over again.
You're probably right.
Okay, guys, we have to go, Thank you so much. Incredible conversation here. We hope everybody enjoyed it. We've got the debate special going on. Take advantage of that. If you're able to Breakingpoints dot Com Otherwise, we will see you all next week.