Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here, and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of ways we can up our game for this critical election.
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Special. Yeah, it's a very creative name that we have.
Come You're special, That's why they're actually special.
The Republican presidential Debate is not that far away. We thought we would do a big thing here in our brand new studio. Thank you to our premium subscribers for helping us build it in order to preview not only what we think is going to happen, but kind of prepare you with the strategies, the facts, who's going to be on the stage, what we think is going to play out, and just a good primer for everybody going
into it, just quickly beforehand. If you're joining us, we have a special discount our yearly membership ten percent off that you can join any time between now and the actual debate. That'll be available in the link of the video of this description or available on the podcast player. But Christal, how do you think that we should think about said debate before we go into it? How should the people out there be preparing themselves.
Yeah, so we've got to cover from all angles. We want to start here with the basics of just literally who is going to be on the stage, who has qualified, Who's going to be on the stage for this first debate which is being hosted by Fox News.
Let's go ahead and throw our graphic.
Up on the screen where we can reveal these are the faces of the individuals who qualified. Now, one very important caveat here. Former President Trump obviously has said he will not participate in debates, leaving it open that he is unlikely to participate in any of the debates. So the eight candidates who actually qualified are Trump, DeSantis, Vivik Ramaswami, Mike Pence, Nikky Haley, Chris Christy, Tim Scott, Asa Hutchinson,
and Doug Burghum. So there were a few extras who sort of like claimed they qualified, but RNC was lego. I don't think you're going to qualify. None of those individuals are going to be on the stage. Let's just go based on the polling, tier by tier who's going to be up there, because maybe some of you don't know all of these individuals, a few of them we've actually interviewed here quite interestingly, Let's put up what is considered based on the polling again, the sort of top
tier of contenders. So for this one, we obviously have Governor Rond De Santis, governor of Florida. He is right now, according to the Real Clear Politics average of polls, sitting at fourteen point six percent. Next up, we have vivik Ramaswami, who really has been making some moves in the primary. He is a businessman and also an author. He is sitting at seven point one percent. And next down the list, we have the former Vice President Mike Pence, who is at four point three percent.
The next level what we're calling.
Kind of the mid tier here, again just based on what their polls are sitting at today. At the national level, we have in this tier Nikki Haley. She is the former governor of South Carolina and also served in the Trump administration. She is at three point three percent, roughly the same place. We have Chris Christy. He is at three point one percent. He of course is the former governor of New Jersey and very outspoken Trump critic who
is likely to make things interesting on the stage. And we also have Senator Tim Scott, senator from South Carolina, who a lot of donor and media types have been excited about recently. He is sitting nationally at three percent, although I will say I think he is a little bit higher in the polls in terms of Iowa and New Hampshire in particular, and then rounding at out the field and the lowest tier in terms of their national polling, we have Asa Hutchinson Trump calls Ada for certain reasons.
He is former governor of Arkansas. He's at point nine percent. Doug Burghum, current governor of North Dakota, he is at point five percent. We did have an opportunity to interview both of these gentlemen, which we appreciated, and Doug Burgham managed to get on the stage using what I guess you would call an innovative strategy of like paying people to donate a small amount back to him.
But it worked out was going to be there.
Everyone dollar you get twenty. Yeah, listen, it actually did work out for him. There are a lot of people who did similar schemes that it didn't work out. We got some of those folks. Let's go ahead and put that up there on the screen. Unfortunately, Larry Elder, he currently says he's actually going to be suing the RNC because he claims that he did debate businessman Perry Johnson despite throwing as much money as he possibly could at
Newsmax to try and qualify. Even though he did reach the forty thousand qualified donors, he didn't appear to reach the polling metrics. Will Hurd, the former congressman from Texas, and Mayor of Miami Francis Suarez. All four actually, save for Herd, had claimed at least in some way that they had qualified for the debate. But that's why we didn't really find out until we got the official results
from the RNC. The big question now is now that you know who these individuals are, is does this debate matter? And we thought we would approach it from two angles, from one universe where it does, in this universe where it does.
Why does it matter?
And one interesting new pole that came out of Iowa, New Hampshire. And we've talked about this a lot of crystal here on the show, that the early states matter disproportionately here because the only way that if a Vake Ramaswami, Aron DeSantis, Chris Christia, Tim Scott is able to break out is they have to win Iowa or Shore very good showing, and they have to win New Hampshire those two. That gives us a ton of media momentum heading into Nevada and then into South Carolina into Super Tuesday and
then the Florida primary. So in that lane, Steve Kornaky over at MSNBC, it does a fantastic job.
Actually pointed something out that we want to show all of you. Let's go ahead put this up there.
He shows that quote stipulating Trump is the favorite to win the GOP nomination, there does seem to be a potential path for some of his rivals. Start with our new Iowa poll, Trump is up by twenty three points, but DeSantis actually has the highest favorability rating and Scott has the highest favorability to unfavorability for unfavorability rating. Broad goodwill gives DeSantis and Scott the opportunity to grow oh their support. It's a big if, but if one could consolidate non Trump support.
They would have a chance at winning the state.
Of course, Trump lost Iowa and sixteen he bounced back in New Hampshire he was fine, But there's potential differences here. In sixteen Iowa was a three way race with Cruz and Trump and Rubio. What if in twenty four there's a clear separation between the top two and all of the others. So I think that is the scenario that we have to look at this. That's the scenario where this debate matters. It's who's the alternative, Who is the
number one alternative? Nobody else matters, And that is why Chris Christy, Tim Scott, Ron DeSantis, and Vivek Ramaswami.
It's going to be a battle royale between those three.
They need to be the alternative to Trump, and I think for several reasons, I don't think Christy can do that because it doesn't have Trump appeal. I think DeSantis and Ramaswami are really the only two who could. Tim Scott is a dark horse. I just don't think he's really a fighter. Whenever it comes to the debates, we'll get to some of that in The Winners and the Losers.
Yeah, and there was an op ed in the New York Times, interestingly from New Hampshire Governor Chris Sanunu, who was also making a similar case of Listen, if you really want to defeat Trump, all of y'all except for one person, I'm going to have to drop out and everybody's going to have to consolidate behind one candidate. It's the same thing they said ultimately in twenty sixteen, you know, in the last ditch phase to try to come up with some candidate other than Trump.
It was the same idea. Then.
Now Democrats did actually execute this strategy very successfully in twenty twenty in order to you know, everybody dropped down and coalesce behind the former Vice President Joe Biden, and that did work to overcome the momentum that Bernie Sanders had at that time and what looked to be, you know, an inevitability coming out of Nevada. So at least on
the Democratic side, we have seen this strategy work. Listen, Do I think that this is likely to happen, No, But I do think it's important to hold open the possibility that we don't know what's going to happen with Trump. He's in all kinds of legal trouble. He's a very unpredictable character to begin with, so you just can't predict the future, and so all of these guys are basically
angling to be the number one alternative to Trump. Ron De Santis had his memo posted online by his super Pack of his debate strategy.
We talked about this in the show.
Is very revealing because he takes a very cautious approach to going after Trump, but he reveals his super Pac reveals that he needs to take a quote hammer to Vike ram Swammi because he sees him as his primary rival to be that top Trump alternative. I expect there'll be a lot of fireworks there because not only are they both fighting to position themselves as like the top alternative to Trump, they have some ideological disputes as well,
in particular on foreign policy. Vivike has been unafraid also of accusing Ronda Santis of basically being a super Pack puppet, so that could get interesting. Chris Christie is very politically talented. I don't think he's not gonna be the nominee. He doesn't have himself ideologically positioned where the Republican base would want him to be, but he also won't mix things up. Is unafraid famously, remember he like sort of ended Mark you torpedoed him on behalf of Trump back in twenty sixteen.
So he has the chops to be able to create those sorts of moments. So that creates some intrigue in drama here as well. But you know, part of from a substantive perspective, what I'm looking to see is there are some divides that have actually emerged between these candidates in terms of policy. I think foreign policy is the most obvious example, but also in terms of the you know, really traditional Reagan conservative type economic policy and people who
are at least flirting with the more populist economics. And I'd love to see some of that drawn out in these debates.
Listen, I would love that too.
I have no illusions, especially whenever we're talking about Fox News. Fox News, in my experience, has some of the worst questions whenever it comes to debates, and the reason is simple, They're focused on horse race stuff, which I think is dumb at a presidential debate because it's like you're already here like you're doing low in the polls.
What's your plan.
I think it's fine when you're sitting down for an interview, but at a debate with such limited amount of time, you have to get to the issues. So here are some things that I need to see or would love to see.
Ukraine. I want a huge debate on.
Ukraine because Chris Christy is basically called DeSantis the Trump and thevic position, as quote unquote Nevill Chamberlain. We need to have a serious clash of wills there between Chris Christy, Nikki Haley and Tim Scott, who are on the establishment side, and then the more restrictionist side DeSantis somewhere in the middle, specifically with Vivike Ramaswami and let them go at it. We also need to see entitlements. We should note I
asked Ramaswami about entitlements. He got a little bit squirrely. Ron DeSantis has really never addressed his position on the future of entitlements and social security.
I want to see that debate.
Tim Scott, Asa Hutchinson, Doug Burgham, we talked with all of them. They're definitely on the side of cutting Okay, great. I also want to see Obamacare. I know nobody cares about this, but healthcare is always a huge part of the debate. Do we still sign on the twenty fifteen plan they twenty vote that or sorry, the seventeen vote on Obamacare, which some of the senators on the stage voted for or supported.
While they're in the Trump administration?
Do we still support the repeal and replaced plan that came in that place? So I know these are nerdy questions, but I think they still are going to matter in terms of the record.
And then also we're going to expect.
And there's no way that this won't happen endless numbers of questions about Trump and the legal questions. Yeah, and so from a political perspective, who can come out and this is the most advantageous, who will come out as the best defender of Trump, Who will be the best indicterer of the FBI and the DOJ?
And Biden. I don't think Biden.
I don't want to hear routine questions about disagreements with Biden. Obviously they disagree with Biden, they're running against him. Has to be about disagreements between themselves. But I don't expect Fox to do any of this because they almost always do softballs. They never do a particularly good job of actually distinguishing the real areas that these gentlemen do disagree on substantive policy. It's going to be horse race Trump and then Biden. Stupid questions, hope, though.
I think you could see some Ukraine questions because probably there's been enough tension between the candidates make that like conflict interesting from a Fox News ratings perspective. And you also had Nikki Haley this week taking shots at Viviak Ramaswami over aid to Israel. So that's another area where you could imagine, you know, just out of the sheer nature of loving to see conflict, perhaps they go in
that direction as well. But you're absolutely right that first of all, I want to make sure to say really clearly, it's a disgrace that Trump is not coming to this debate like it is fully contentful of the American people. It's fully contempt ful of the Republican base. It is taking their vote for granted. I think it's disgusting that he's not going to be there and participate. I think it's discussing that Joe Biden has no intention of debating his opponents, and I don't want to let that go
without being let this go without that being said. Trump is obviously going to be the big elephant.
In the room. And you have a range.
Of approaches among these candidates in terms of how they actually deal with Trump. Doug Bergham is willing to be a little bit critical of him, Asa Hutchinson is willing to be significantly critical of him, and then Chris Christy obviously is willing to go all the way in and be extremely critical of Trump. And then the people who frankly have a more serious chance of being his top alternative are more or less sick his hands, who have
variously done everything they can to possibly defend him. And I understand it from a political perspective, even though I think it lacks moral courage, because listen, it's not an accident that the top alternatives Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswami, and with being the person who's rising the fastest in the polls right now, have been variously committed to defending
Trump against the core accusations against him. So seeing how they handle all of that, how much of the questioning focuses on Donald Trump, how much he just hangs over. This whole thing is going to be another piece to watch for coming out of this.
Yeah. No, I think you're right.
I mean, look, I agree, I think Trump should show up. I don't think he should just take people for granted. But let's be honest, we've all looked at the polls.
Here.
People trust Trump more than they literally trust their really just leaders. We just did a hilarious segment on that on our Monday Show. It's like Republican voters trust Trump more than their friends and family and then their fasters slash God.
Yes, so in that ret like he can afford to.
He said it himself, I could shoot somebody on Fifth Avenue and people would still vote for me.
I think he's right.
Let me make the Let me make the case though that I basically agree that it is probably the right strata. As much as I hate it. So it's disgusting, it's probably the right strategy. But I will say that it does put Trump in the position of doing something very uncharacteristic, which is giving someone else the opportunity to grab the spotlight. We're going to talk about Trump as doing this Tucker Carlson interview on Twitter.
Listen.
That's just not going to get as many eyeballs as a you know, primetime major party debate.
It's just not and we've heard from Trump a million.
Times like he's not going to can't say anything all that new that's going to be all that different from what he said before. So many more people are going to be interested in the inherent show and conflict that
is a major party primary debate. So he does create an opening for someone else to grab the spotlight, make a name for themselves, dominate the news cycle, etc. And Politico put together a piece trying to argue the case that debates actually do matter, and they actually have shifted races significantly, and in fact, primary races, the debates are what have primarily moved the numbers in terms of Democrat and Republican primary racist. So let's go and put this
up on the screen. From Politico, they say why Trump might regret passing on the first debate. They say, as presidential primaries have become more national in scope, debates have arguably been all that has really mattered in the run
up to the early States. Candidates like Herman Kane, Newt, Gingrich, Ben Carson, and Pete boodagech surged in the polls after strong showings, and Fred Thompson, Rick Perry, and Bitter O'Rourke stand as cautionary tales of hyped up candidates who bombed on stage and saw their campaigns crumble months before voting
even began. And I mean, one example we can give from the twenty twenty Democratic primaries was in that first debate, Kamala had her little pre pre package like that little girl was me lying that she trained at the former vice president now current president, and it actually really worked, It really landed. She jumped up in the polls for a brief moment in time, she actually surged to second
place in the polls. But the major caveat to all of this is the people that they mention here as prime examples of, you know, individuals who the debates have really helped them, Herman Kane, Newt, Gingrich, Ben Carson, Pee buotagech It's not like any of them.
Actually won primary. None of them won.
It ended up being a bit of a flash in the pan. I mean, you could argue for Pete it ended up being a bit more of than a flash in the pan because he goes on to you know, pretend to win Iowa and do well in New Hampshire, and now he's in the cabinet position. Like I could see something like that for Veg in particular. But will they actually change change landscape enough to supplant Trump. No, they may really shape who ends up being the primary alternative.
That's probably about the most you could say for it.
The most I will say for it is I believe that this is a fight for number two, and so I think the stakes are very high for the plausible alternatives. I think the rest of them are basically just wasting their time up there. But you know, good luck to you. I wish you the best, and I do think it matters only insofar as being the alternative and then how that will shape the future of the Republican Party. Will Trump take a hit for this, I just don't think so.
I think that he strategically made the right call, even though democratically I think he should have showed up. He had nothing to lose except for taking heat from Chris Christy and from of these other folks. And he's like, well, whenever you're on top, He's like, let everybody just squabble.
He even put out a truth not that long ago.
He's like, I will decide from this who will be my vice president, which is the ultimate power move. We have some great segments that we wanted to set up also in the past about these debates and when they really showed us the path towards Trump. So we picked some of our past moments. And to me, I've pointed this for a while, this is more than a decade old. It was during the twenty twelve presidential primary debates. It
was Nuke ging Rich versus CNN. And the reason why I think this clip we're about to show you is so important is I think this is when everything changed. This is when things went away from policy. It went away even from attacking the Democrats. This was the first full blown attack by a Republican presidential candidate against the media, getting the people in the audience up in their feet, against the moderators. And it really was, it really harkened
what Trump would become in this debate. It was Nuke Gingrich versus John king Over at CNN in a presidential primary debate back in twenty twelve.
Let's take a listen.
Your ex wife gave an interview to ABC News and another interview with the Washington Post, and this story has now gone viral on the internet. In it, she says that you came to her in nineteen ninety nine time when you're having an affair. She says, you asked her, sir to enter into an open marriage. Would you like to take some time to respond to that?
No, but I will. I think the destructive, vicious, negative nature of much of the news media makes it harder to govern this country, harder to attract decent people to run for public office. And I am appalled that you would begin a presidential debate on a topic like that.
That all you want to say so benefenic past.
Every person in here knows personal pain. Every person in here has had someone close to them go through painful things. To take an ex wife and make it two days before the primary a significant question in a presidential campaign is as close to despicable as anything I can imagine.
As you noted, mister speaker, this story did not come from our network. As you also know, it is the subject of conversation on the campaign.
I get your quint I take your point.
John, It was repeated by your network. You chose to start the debate with it. Don't try to blame somebody else. You and your staff chose to start this debate with it.
That was it, Crystal. I believe everything changed that day.
Another reason why is is that that is with a prelude to attacking the media, becoming the quote unquote enemy, branding them. That's what Trump really picked up on, and that moment really the I mean, have you ever seen people act.
Like that in debate before. Never, They're chanting his name, They're up on their feet. And here's the thing, Newt.
Yeah, he ended up losing, but he is always a talented politician. He was good at what he did, and so that led to what I think truly is where everything broke apart. That was kind of the prelude to this. It was Trump the very first debate. Politics will never be the same him versus Megan Kelly and then against Jeb Bush.
Let's take a listen.
You call women you don't like fat pigs, dogs, slobs, and disgusting animals your Twitter accounts O'donald for the record, it was well beyond Roso.
Yes, I'm just subject my wife into the middle of a raucous political conversation.
Was completely inappropriate, and I hope you apologize for that.
Donald, Well, I have to tell you, I hear phenomenal things. I hear your wife as a lovely woman, fantaster and this is life if she's right here. And when I apologize for her, No.
I won't do that because I said nothing wrong.
But I do hear a lovely woman.
So here's the deal.
He refuses to apologize. He turned it into a show.
And I think when you put it all together, they're attacking the media being the biggest force against the questioners themselves, which is something that we should look out for tonight. We're you know, people up there aren't stupid. They're going
to be studying also big moments that was. It's like, you turn it into a thing not just about against each other, but it needs to be a spectacle in which the people who are watching are frothing at the mouth, not against the moderators but against the system of which they hate so much. And so turning it into the spectacle is ultimately how Trump was able to completely dominate the conversation and bring it back to that new moment and recreate it over and over and over again.
It's hard to remember now just how much Jeb Bush was built up.
Yeah, as like the candidate that cycle, the amount of money that was behind this guy. I mean he had like the perfect on paper bio governor of Florida. Sound familiar, right, Hailes from this famous political family, has all the connections in the world. The conservative media loved him, the liberal media tolerated him. He was supposed to be the guy,
and Trump systematically humiliated him. And that's why that moment was so important to show of Jeb is like, apologized to my wife, and Trump is like, I'm not going to do that, no to his face, and.
Jeb just takes it.
The fact that Trump is not showing up to these debates, it means that he doesn't have the opportunity to do the same thing.
Basically to Ron DeSantis.
Now, his calculation, which is probably correct, is that he doesn't even need to. DeSantis is sitting nationally at I believe on our you know RCP average, we had him at like fourteen point seven percent something like that.
It's doing a little bit better in Iowa.
Maybe I don't actually think he is doing much better in New HAMPSI actually Chris Christy is doing a little bit better in New Hampshire.
Tim Scott is doing decently in New Hampshire.
But Trump calculates that he doesn't even need to show up to humiliate his rivals to dominate this race.
It's hard to argue that he is.
Wrong, but you know, he was really talented at that thing. It may you may have hated what he had to say. I certainly hated some of what he had to say. I certainly hated some of the policies that he advocated for. But when you're just considering sheer political skill, there's really no one who is better in this format. The one debate where he had dismal performance was that first one against Joe Biden, when.
He was way too a gria.
He was just so obnoxious and everyone was like, shut up, so we can at least hear a question or hear one single response. That was the one time when he was really off his game. But overwhelmingly he excels in these things, and so he is creating a little bit of an opening here for someone else to excel and
to do something that is different. Probably the thing that will get the most attention here is the most vociferous defender of Trump, which also is a sign of the lay of the land in terms of the likelihood of
any of these alternatives really succeeding. But I do think that the interview with Tucker, or that he's using to try to like counter schedule the programming that's going on with the debate, I don't think that that is probably going to get all that much attention because it's just nothing all that new.
It's not a limited platform.
Fox is certainly not going to say anything about it because they despise Tucker, and Fox is still the biggest conservative media game in town.
So the way I look at it is he changed everything and then got himself up to sixty percent now where he's acting as if this is a fake primary and that he is basically just in a two way race with Joe Biden. And it's interesting too because many media are also beginning to focus in on this about not only strength in the primary, but really his strength
in the overall general election. I was especially struck here by this CNN clip Harry Enton, their political analysts used to work over at five point thirty eight, try and hammer it home to all of the people at the network.
We're like, hey, guys, this is a close race.
Trump is very strong he's in a good position to win act not reelection. I guess win the election again, Shoody, actually make it there. Let's take a listen to this.
Trump's lead is even larger. So these are three polls that were out over the last week. Look at these leads for Donald Trump. He's at sixty two percent of the CBS News JUGA poll, fifty seven percent in Quinnipiac University, fifty three percent of the Fox News. Well, look at where the santisis in all these posts. Look how far back he is. He doesn't crack twenty percent in any of them. So in Iowa you have that twenty plus
point lead for Donald Trump. That's actually smaller than the lead we see nationally where we see these leads of thirty five, forty, near fifty points. In this particular case, of course, the primary is one thing. If Trump wins the primary, can he go on and win the general election. And we've had three polls that have come out over the last week here, and I want you to take a look at how close this race is at this particular point. Granted the general election is over a year away.
The largest lead for Joe Biden is just three points within the margin of error, no clear leader. Look at these one point one point. If you go back at where we were at this point four years ago, Joe Biden's lead was high single digits to low double digits. This is significantly close to them when we're four years ago. So this idea that Donald Trump can't win the general election,
I want you to lose that idea. This race is very, very close, and Donald Trump is pulling better right now than basically at any point during.
The entire twenty twenty s fordtment.
After for indictments, it just doesn't really seem to matter.
That's fascinating, very Inton, Thank you, thank you.
I want you to lose that idea, This idea that that's why is that going to the debate he sees that he can read a poll. He's like, I got nothing to lose. I'm already doing this, I'm doing well.
Biden's thinking himself, and so I keep coming back to the side of while I think that the debate, Look, I think somebody could have their moment, as you laid out in the politic Ar, everybody can have quote unquote a moment, but to be riding as high as he is to have so much control over the media narrative to be so high ahead of the rest of them. He's just probably in the best position that he's ever been in. He shouldn't expose himself to weakness at a
strategic level. Democratically, I agree with you, he said last show. I believe that the rules should be changed. They should change the bylaws. You can't be the nominee unless you participate in the debates. But I know they're also never going to do that. Maybe once Biden and Trump are gone they will change it.
I think they should.
Yeah, sound we have an open primary system where you don't have the same choice.
Do it put it in the laws.
Yeah.
I mean that's what's so depressing about all both primaries, the Democratic and the Republican primary, is Yeah, they are setting the precedent now of you know, they don't feel that they have to subject themselves to any sort of democratic accountability, and there's no indication that either the Democratic or Republican primary base are likely to punch them for that. So it is a sort of depressing state of affairs in terms of CNN there, Harrieton has been sounding the alarm.
He did a whole piece laying out guys, look at the polls now. Trump was nowhere near this close in twenty twenty with Biden either way, Remember, he almost won. It was very close in twenty twenty. It is not like it was a landslide. And back in twenty sixteen when he did actually win, he was nowhere near to pulling as well as he is in these polls.
Now, my personal.
Guess is that the fact that the general election landscape is going to take place amidst the backdrop of all of his trials, you know, the one in Georgia is going to be televised, There's going to be a whole courtroom drama around it. I do think that that sort of offends a enormy like law and order kind of sensibility, the idea that this man could literally be facing prison time heading into the general election. But can I say
that with confidence? Can I say one hundred percent like Joe Biden is a lock for getting re elected?
No, not at all.
And the fact that this is a jump ball right now where the polls are tied, where to be honest with you, given the historic like bias against Trump in the polls, you'd have to say probably has an edge. I think it is a pathetic sign of the state of the Democratic Party. I think they should be holding their heads in shame over the fact that it could
be so close. And let's not forget that many Democratic analysts and many within the White House reportedly were actively cheering for Trump to be the nominee because once again, they never learned anything from history and they thought this one would be easy to be. Apparently now they're starting to rethink that as they've seen Ronda Santis on the campaign trail, they actually think, maybe we would.
Rather go up against that guy.
But look that that ship in many ways has probably already.
Said I agree.
So my TLDR on this is, yeah, I don't think it's going to matter. I don't think I don't think this debate matters. In the age of Trump, I think he changed the game. He was the most captivating of all time. He played it at such a high level, and now he's letting it be the JV league. I wish it wasn't the case, but it is what it is. And I think, you know, he's correctly putting himself in a general election posture, and the media is treating him that way too, because they're not stupid.
Yeah, you can read pole would.
I would position it a little bit differently because I do think the race to be the primary Trump alternative matters in terms of who is going to continue.
To be a fixture in media and politics.
So in the same way that Pete secured his cabinet position and his love among resistance liberals and among the donor set, I think you know, you've got those openings available for people who successfully are able to grab the spotlight at the debate. Do I think that it shifts who's going to actually win the Republican primary.
I think that is very unlikely.
Some breaking news we can look for here, we've got some breaking points power rankings. So we were so inspired by Fox News just pulling on of their ass power rankings for the Republican primer, we decided we should probably do.
It, except we're not going to treat it like breaking news of.
Self serious anyway.
This is basically just our predictions of who's going to come out well out of the debate, who's going to improve their position, and who is going to do themselves damage coming out of the debate. So I will start with mine, and I think you might be a little bit surprised here because it's a bit of a hot take. All right, it's going to put my winners in my power rankings up.
On the screen.
It's controversial, Ron DeSantis and Vivike Ramaswami. Now Vivike, I don't think people will be surprised because I've said before I think he's politically talented. I think he'll be well prepared. I think he'll be unafraid of, you know, going on the attack against Ronda Santas. I think he'll do an effective job at that. You have a relatively low name.
I d for Viveke.
So in a lot of ways, he has the most room to grow in terms of the candidates that will be on the stage, and so I think that he will do himself some favors tonight. However, the reason I've put Ronda Santis up there sager and I don't want to say I don't have a lot of confidence in this choice, but he's got a low bar at this point. There's been so much commentary about how awkward he is and how bad he is with people, and how his
campaigns falling apart and whatever. I know he's going to show up really well prepared, really well scripted.
I can imagine him having like the equivalent.
Of the Kamala Harris that Little Girl is Me kind of a moment up there, and so I think he may do himself some good being on that stage, and he'll really be a focal point a lot of ways.
There'll be a lot of.
Attacks coming at him, and that gives him an opportunity to parry those effectively and really try to reestablish himself as a primary, serious Trump competitor. So that is why I put those two gentlemen at the top. I do want to say one other thing, just in terms of how I was thinking about this. I suspect the person who's performance I will like the most is probably Chris Christy, and I do think he's very politically talented. I think
he will land his blow, et cetera. But this isn't about who I'm gonna like, because I'm not a Republican primary butter, I suspect the liberal media, you know, seeing a no No a s NBC are also going to enjoy Chris Christie's performances. Chris Matthews told us he's a liberal pinup boy, which was accurate, But you know, is that going to help him in terms of doing better in a Republican primary.
No, I don't really see that.
Okay, let's see your losers and then I'll do mine.
And okay, okay, so let's go ahead and debut my losers here, Mike Pence and Tim Scott. So I just don't really see either of them being able to have a breakout moment. Both of their political personalities are being like the super nice guy and for better or worse, I just don't know that that really sells. I don't think it really provides the opportunity for you to have that kind of spotlight grabbing, interesting breakout moment and assert yourself.
And if you aren't moving up the rankings of being one of the top Trump alternatives, then I think you know you're falling behind. And to me, it's particularly embarrassing
for Mike Pence, who was the vice president. I mean, this is a man who'sment of politics for so long, who does have a lot of connections, who was literally vice president of the United States for four years, and has fallen down into, you know, best, a mid tier competitor here, even in the context of a Republican primary debate without Trump, And so for him to be sidelined in this way, in such a visible on such a visible performance, I think it's a real problem for him.
Tim Scott, there's a lot of media hype around him at the moment, but again, I find it hard to believe that he's going to really be able to achieve any sort of a breakout moment.
So I think it's tough for him to Here, you go, Okay, let's put my winners up there, because I think this might surprise you. There's a little bit of a disagreement here. We have to share one winner. So I've got Ramaswami and Christy.
Interesting.
I believe that this is ultimately, as I said, it's a vote for number two. Chris Christi is a talented debater, well spoken. I believe he's going to be on the attack against Ron DeSantis. And because I don't think DeSantis has ever really been challenged at this level, particularly about being like some sort of Trump tody, Christy's gonna knock find some knocks against him. The other reason I put Ramaswami is I think the veke is just far more
politically talented than Ron DeSantis. In a back and forth environment, he always puts himself in challenging situations.
He was on our show, he was on SANNN.
I mean, he's constantly battling with Caitlyn Collins don Lemon practice. He knows exactly how to perry, how to get to it, about how to knock somebody's attacks against him. I think he's going to win on that front because he's also going to be on the attack against DeSantis, and I don't think Desanta is going to be able to levy the same blows against him. Christy is likely to attack Dasantis, but he's probably going to focus more of his attack
on sorry On. He's likely to attack the Veke, but more likely to focus his attack on DeSantis because he's there. Ramaswami though maybe the beneficiary of that, and I think he will out battle him, at least in a duel whenever it comes to fights about Trump indictment Forum also Ukraine. He's the best, most articulate, well spoken person on there. It's a big performance. So this leads into my losers and this is probably my hot my hottest take Okay
number one, I think it's DeSantis. Wow, I think DeSantis is gonna be the loser.
He showed a.
You know, obviously he's had several awkward moments on the trail. Whenever he's pressed, he does get a little bit flustered. He hasn't done enough contentious interviews. He's had some decent moments in a press conference, but with the political talent of Christy and Ramaswamy going up against him, I'm just not sure that he's prepared for the moment.
The reason I put Mike Pence.
There is the exact same analysis as you to be the former vice president, betrayaling a guy like the vake Ramiswam when he wrote a book humiliating, humiliating. Let's let's be honest. I mean, this is the al Gore thing, you know, George w but this should have been his. He should be coronated and this shouldn't even be debated.
And the Trump questions are like the most tortured for him.
Horrible too.
Like there everyone else is kind of either decided like I'm just going to defend this guy or whatever, or they're willing to bake the critique. Pens is still like you can feel the anguish in every response, and yeah, it's just kind of painful to watch.
And then Haley I mean, I've always believed she is one of the least talented politicians on the stage. She's a complete donor creation. I think she's going to have the most scripted, fumbled answers. I hope Vivek smacks her on Israel and any of these other comments or Ukrainer, these other ridiculous positions that she takes. And I don't think she holds up to scrutiny one bit. She never
puts herself in a position for a contentious interview. I mean, she's one of the people who I'm like, really, you're not going to respond about coming on our show.
Yeah, okay, lady here at three percent, Yeah, you should be taking about all the positions you can.
But listen, you know, be my guest. I have always bet against her political talent. I think she's terrible. I think she's totally establishment. The voters really have nothing to connect with her. Tim Scott I decided not to put in my losers. I think he's just a watch. I think he's a nice guy. Debates on his format, his formats, a campaign trail, the speeches, so we'll see. But he's not enough I think yet in my book to be loser. Desantras is the most lose so far. We've not seen
enough political talent for him to rise. I could be totally wrong. You know, he could be a big winner. He has a potential to do it, but we haven't seen that. Considering it is so much on a downswing. He's got the most stake there tonight. I don't think there's any question.
I think rom Swami's gonna have a great night. He's just good at the format. He's good at what he does.
Obviously I put him as well winners too, So I agree with you. I will say if he doesn't, it could be for two reasons. Number one, he tends to be pretty wordy in his responses, Like it takes him, even when we were talking to him, like it takes a minute for him to get.
To the talker.
He's a talker. He's a long talker. That's like, not a knock on him, that's just his style. Takes a while for him to like lay on the context. He doesn't just he's not super punchy, right, and in a debate, debates prioritized that, like you know, the one liner and the punchiness, and you have a very short period of time to respond. So if he has an off night, I would say that is why.
And the other.
Possible reason is DeSantis and Co. Feel like he hasn't been challenged on some of his past more liberal political sentiments. You know, you actually challenged him Scaga a little bit on that on our show about what he used to say about January six versus what he says now on January six are pretty different. I mean, he has made a bit of I think a pretty significant political evolution to position himself as this very pro Trump force within
the Republican primary. And that's just not where he was before. So if someone could effectively land a blow on him for that stuff, in particular around like how loyal are.
You really to Donald Trump?
That could matter because he has made Trump defense so central to his politic political brand within the Republican primary. But you know, my expectation, like, I think he's a talented guy. I think he'll be planned for that. I think he'll be prepared. I think he'll probably be ready to parry those attacks. But if he does have an off night, those would be the reasons.
I would say, here's the thing, this is why he came on our show. He's been how many times are now being asked about it? Five six times? It's like that's the benefit of being in the arena. DeSantis hasn't put himself in the arena this I think it's gonna I think he's.
Gonna have a tough night. I really do, especially he snaps.
He really doesn't like being pressed, you know, And he did okay in his debate against who is It? Charlie crist But at the end of the day, you know, this is it hasn't necessarily been his format, and he's going to be taking it in ways that.
Vivek has had.
Chris Christy also, Let's let's be honest. I mean, he knows even been in previous debates. He actually does a lot of media interviews, in some cases contentious meeting.
He's been going on newsmaxim fighting with Eric. But he, like Christy, is one of these guys that actually seems.
To relish the fight, right.
I mean, it's this very New Jersey, New York personnel, kind of like Trump in a way, you know. And so I know he'll do an effective job. I just don't think that he'll be landing the blows that will move him up in terms of the Republican primary.
That's a whole lot of conversation.
Yeah, in terms of what the voters and all that, I think that's one thing. In terms of who's gonna have the breakout, I really I think Ramaswami is gonna be the big dinner.
I really believe that.
Let me say, though, reality, I actually think the big winner is going to be Trump. Yeah, of course, because I mean the fact that so much of this debate is going to center around him and how people feel about him.
And this is what he's done in the Republican Party.
This is why he is so central and why it's so impossible to knock him off of his perch, because he has made the Republican Party all about and really all of politics, even democratic politics. He's made all of politics just about how do you feel about Donald Trump?
And so the fact that that's like the central question at the heart of these debates, that's already that's a massive win for him, and that he can just you know, sit back and watch it and post truths or whatever and watch his little toadies go to work for him on stage who are supposed to be his rivals. But you know, the primary, like the ones who are most serious are going to be out there defending him tooth and nail.
Yeah, that's a huge win for him.
I agree.
So look, that's what you guys have got in terms of the debate. Because it ends so late, we just decided we'll get up early and we'll make sure that when you guys wake up, you will have full analysis from us here.
We'll have Emily here, we're gonna have Kyla, we'll.
Have a bit of power panel, we'll have a breakdowns, we'll have clips, full produced and good show for everybody right in the morning whenever you guys wake up and you want to digest all the analysis of what happened the previous night. So we're really excited for that. I hope you guys enjoyed the preview. As we said, we have a special discount on our yearly membership just until the debate starts. Links are down in the description, both for the video and for the podcast of which you
are listening to. Otherwise, we will see you all tomorrow.
Love you guys, See you tomorrow.